RANDOM VARIABLES AND DISTRIBUTIONS

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Binomial problems: Advanced

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QUESTION

80% of planted seeds will germinate. Suppose the manufacturer is correct. If 6

The manufacturer of a fertilizer guarantees that, with the aid of the fertilizer,
seeds planted with the fertilizer are randomly selected, what is the probability that at least 4 of them germinate?

Carry your intermediate computations to at least four decimal places, and round your answer to two decimal places.

(If necessary, consult a list of formulas.)

EXPLANATION

If the following are true, we have a binomial experiment (or a binomial situation).

There are n independent trials. (The occurrence of one doesn't affect any of the others.)
Each trial ends either in success or failure.
Each trial has the same probability p of success.

Then the probability P x that exactly x of the trials end in success is given by the binomial formula.
x n−x
P x = nCx·p 1 − p More

Note that we have such a situation in our problem.

There are 6 seeds. Because they are randomly selected, we have independent trials.
Each seed either germinates or doesn't.
Each seed has an 80% chance of germinating.

So, using n = 6 and p = 0.8, here is the probability P x that exactly x of the seeds germinate.
x 6−x
P x = 6Cx· 0.8 1 − 0.8     (1)

We want the probability that at least 4 of the seeds germinate. More

Probability at least 4 germinate = P 4 + P 5 + P 6

Using equation 1, we get the following.

4 2 5 1 6 0
P 4 + P 5 + P 6 = 6C4· 0.8 1 − 0.8 + 6C5· 0.8 1 − 0.8 + 6C6· 0.8 1 − 0.8
4 2 5 1 6 0
= 15· 0.8 0.2 + 6· 0.8 0.2 + 1· 0.8 0.2
  ≈ 0.9011

Rounding to the nearest hundredth, we get 0.90.

The answer can also be found by inputting 1 − P B6 ,  0.8   ≤ 3 on the ALEKS calculator.

The notation B6 ,  0.8 refers to a binomial random variable with parameters n = 6 and p = 0.8.

ANSWER

0.90

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