1

Automotive Carbon Neutral Fuel (CNF*)

- Status of CNF Globally and in Japan -
*CNF= Biofuels and Synthetic fuels

Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association, Inc.

February 23, 2023
Hitoshi Hayashi
 2
JAMA’s Stance on Carbon Neutrality
JAMA Stance
JAMA member companies will make utmost efforts to achieve carbon
neutrality by 2050.

JAMA Comments
 The goal is carbon neutrality (CN).
Approaches to achieving CN should be technology-neutral.
 A diversity of options is crucial to achieving our goal.

 There are optimal pathways to CN for individual countries/regions.

Stance on Carbon-Neutral Fuel (CNF)

The use of CNF is a key pathway to carbon neutrality by 2050.

 What Is Carbon-Neutral Fuel? 3

Photosynthesis Photosynthesis Biomass

route
CO2

Industrial Biofuels
synthesis
route (low-carbon fuels)
Direct air capture (DAC)
CO2

＋ H2
Synthetic fuels
Renewable energy Industrial synthesis (e-fuels)

 Biofuels: High potential for biomass utilization in ASEAN.

 Synthetic fuels: Potential future CNF, but commercialization requires time.
 4
The Need for Carbon-Neutral Fuel
The purpose of the JAMA study was to determine, based on quantitative
assessments, possible pathways to be pursued towards CN by 2050.

Configuration Scenarios
BEV/FCEV Share of New Passenger Car Sales 2050 Projected CNF
2050 Scenario Designation &
Advanced Emerging Share in Automotive
Definition Worldwide
Economies*3 Economies*4 Fuel Mix

Scenario 0 BAU*1 BAU   

Scenario 1 CNF/
40％ 50% 25% 40% approx.
Wide use of CNF

Scenario 2 BEV75/
75％ 100% 50% 30% approx.
Wide electrified vehicle adoption

Scenario 3 NZE: 100% 7%

100％ 100% 100%
BEVs/FCEVs (IEA NZE*2 scenario) (biofuels only)

*1 BAU: “Business as usual”, *2 IEA: International Energy Agency, NZE: “Net Zero Emissions by 2050”
*3 Advanced: Japan, EU, North America, *4 Emerging economies: India, ASEAN, Africa; etc.
 The Need for Carbon-Neutral Fuel 5

Predict CO2 reductions for each region and world based on scenarios.
Projected rates of CNF supply Estimated CO2 Emissions Reductions
ASEAN
Based on Scenarios 1 and 2, the
Kt-CO2
share of CNF in the ASEAN
automotive fuel/energy mix in 2050 CNF: 40%
is estimated at approximately 34 to Scenario 1
50%. 50%
Scenario 2

https://www.jama.or.jp/operation/ecology/carbon_neutral_sce CNF: 34% Scenario 3

nario/PDF/Transitioning_to_CN_by_2050A_Scenario_Based_A
nalysis_EN.pdf
Transitioning_to_CN_by_2050A_Scenario_Based_Analysis_EN.pd
f (jama.or.jp)

• In all scenarios, CO2 emissions are in line with the IPCC’s 1.5C goal.
• The IEA’s NZE scenario is premised on one pathway towards CN, but the
JAMA study confirms that the use of CNF is another pathway.
 Towards Carbon Neutrality (Automotive) 6

Carbon-Reducing Carbon-Neutral

ICEVs
HEVs C-N Fuel
Gasoline, Biofuels, E-fuels HEVs
Diesel
PHEVs
PHEVs
C-N Electricity
Electricity
BEVs BEVs
C-N Hydrogen
Hydrogen FCEVs FCEVs

ICE: internal combustion engine

CNF is one of the promising options for achieving carbon-neutral

automotive transport and a carbon-neutral society.
 Merits of CNF 7

(1) Renewable energy availability fluctuates greatly.

Therefore, from the perspective of energy security, the use of liquid CNF has
great significance.
 In addition, by converting surplus electricity into liquid CNF, long-term
storage is possible.

(2) Since CNF is also effective in reducing the CO2 emissions of in-use vehicles,
it can be expected to have an immediate impact on vehicle-fleet carbon
emissions.
High energy density makes it very consumer-friendly, enhancing its potential
for widespread use.

(3) The market supply of liquid CNF does not require the creation of new
infrastructure, and thereby enables reduced investment and higher
employment retention.
 8
Steps Towards Carbon Neutrality Using Liquid CNF

CNF: carbon-neutral fuel CNF: Carbon-Neutral Fuel (3) CNF supply (e-fuel) + Biofuel
LCF: low-carbon fuel  Development of low-cost CNF
HVO: hydrotreated vegetable oil
Step 3  CN biofuel (CI* is 0)
 In-use vehicle compatibility with CNF
Increased supply of CNF
(2) Increased Biofuel + Small CNF supply
with Maintaining existing fuel standards
LCF: Low-Carbon Fuel  Further development of CNF
Step 2
 Reduction of biofuel CI*
Ex. Reduction of CO2 emissions during
manufacturing and power consumption
Increased supply of LCF
biofuel (1) Fuel efficiency + Biofuel + Fuel quality
Step 1
 Improved vehicle fuel efficiency
Improved Fuel Efficiency & Biofuel  Technologies for low-concentration biofuels

~2022 ~2030 ~2050/60 ＊CI: Carbon intensity

~2040

Optimal pathways for each country should be determined.

 9

Types of
Biofuels ＆ Synthetic Fuels
for Vehicles
 10
Biofuel and Synthetic Fuel Production Processes
CO2  CO2 from DAC
 Biomass Synthesis
Methanol
DME MTG gasoline
CH3OH

Produced at same time

Renewable Syngas
energy CO＋H2
Gasoline
FT (Fischer-Tropsch) Synthetic Fuel
H2 Methane Jet fuel
CH4
Diesel fuel

Synthesis
Sugarcane, Corn Jet, Diesel
Biogas Feedstock
Ethanol
ETG gasoline
Biomass
FAME
Rapeseed, soy, palm Jet, Diesel
Waste cooking oil
FAME: fatty acid methyl ether
HVO: hydrotreated vegetable oil Algae, etc.
MTG: methanol-to-gasoline
HVO Gasoline
ETG: ethanol-to-gasoline Green hydrogen Upgrade
 11
World Trends in Biofuel Use: Ethanol
E#: Current regulatory level Higher levels under
E#: High bioethanol content consideration

EU Canada
E5/E10
E0/E10
France USA
E10/E85 E10/E15/E85
Japan
E3/E10 Brazil
India
E27/E100
E0/E10
E20, E100 Indonesia
China Australia Thailand Preferential
policy was
E10/E20/E85 E0/E10 tax on E100
proposed. E5/E10 E0/E10

 Ethanol is used in many countries worldwide.

 Many countries have plans to increase ethanol content.
 12
World Trends in Biofuel Use: Biodiesel (FAME, HVO)
Norway, Finland, Sweden, <B7
Belgium, Netherlands
>B8
B100 (HVO100)
B100 (HVO)
France
B10
USA
EU B5/B20 Minnesota
Colombia (summer)
B7
India B12  B10

B7 Argentina
Thailand B10  B7  B10?
B7/B20 Malaysia Indonesia Brazil
B7/B20 B0/B30 B10/B15 (2025)

 The use of FAME is expected to increase in some countries.

 Some countries in Europe use high-concentration HVO.
 13
Worldwide Synthetic Fuel Production Projections
 Norway
 Synthetic 0.01 MkL
(2023~)

 Germany
 Synthetic 0.1 MkL  Canada
(2025~）  Synthetic 0.12 MkL
(2025~）

 Spain
 Synthetic 3600 kL  USA
(2024~)  Gasoline 0.05 MkL
 Japan
(2024~）
 Synthetic 0.58 MkL
(2040~）
 France
 2022~ For racing

 UAE
 France  Hydrogen１GW HIF, Porsche
 2030~  Chile
Hydrogen３GW  For racing (2022~)
 Saudi Arabia
 0.55 MkL (2026~)
 2022~ For racing

 Commercialization of synthetic fuel takes time.

 It is a topic for future discussion.
 14
[Reference] Example of MTG: HIF - Porsche
https://www.siemens-energy.com/global/en/offerings/renewable-energy/hydrogen-solutions/haru-oni.html

Porsche & Siemens Energy are promoting a project to

produce e-Fuel from wind power (renewable energy) and
water in Chile, US and Australia.
 15
Potential of Biofuels and CNF in Indonesia
Abundant palm oil Biodiesel / HVO

Small production
of ethanol

Cost
efficiency

Abundant solar energy

Low-cost renewable Low-cost CO2 Potential of

electricity capture and H2 low-cost CNF
 Major Challenges for Supplying Bio-/Synthetic Fuels 16

Fuels Issues
 Securing raw materials

Biofuels  Sustainability: Competition with food resources, Deforestation etc.

 Ethanol for vehicles is not produced in Indonesia

 Supply: Allocation of fuel volume with Aviation, Marine uses etc.

Synthetic fuels  Efficiency: Electricity (BEVs) > Hydrogen (FCEVs) > CNF (HEVs)

 Development of synthetic fuels suitable for Indonesia

 High cost
Items common to
 CO2 count rule (IPCC guideline)
two fuels
 Impacts on vehicle

JAMA hopes to discuss these issues with experts from Indonesia.

 Suggestions 17

1. Promotion of research in Indonesia  P19

a. CO2 emissions from biofuels and synthetic fuels from the WTW perspective (carbon intensity)
b. Demand prediction
c. Cost estimation
2. Promotion of international rules and standardization
a. CO2 count rule, CO2 emissions trading, etc.
b. Fuel quality (regulations)
3. Government-led stakeholder meetings  P18
Respond to issues requires discussion from the perspective of production, transportation, and use.
Demand is not limited to vehicles, but also includes various fields such as aircraft, ships, construction
machinery, and agricultural machinery.
4. Human resource development
The development of human resources capable of evaluating impacts on vehicles is currently underway.
5. Promote the development of new fuel technologies  P20
a.１G /２G Bio Ethanol
b. Synthetic fuel technology suitable for Indonesia

In addition to current biodiesel fuels, bilateral cooperation between Japan and Indonesia
should be promoted on the use of ethanol and synthetic fuels toward CN.
 18
Public-Private Council to Promote Synthetic Fuels
By METI Japan
The public and private sectors are working together to address the following issues.
a. Technical and pricing challenges b. Supply chain c. Awareness raising
d. Establishment of a system for evaluating the effects of CO2 reduction

Members
Council
a. Comprehensive study to promote the introduction of synthetic fuels Suppliers:
b. Summary of discussions by each WG
c. Reporting and proposals to government-related organizations  Production (oil industry)
 Distribution
Commercialization promotion WG
a. Formulation of roadmap, examination and demonstration of supply chain
Users:
construction  Automotive industry (JAMA)
b. Study on the feasibility of introducing synthetic fuels in fields other than  Aviation industry
mobility  Marine industry
c. Public relations activities to promote the introduction of synthetic fuels

Research institutes, experts, governments:

Create conditions to promote initiatives WG  METI, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure,
a. Establishment of a system for evaluating the effects of CO2 reduction Transport and Tourism (MLIT)
b. Utilization of a framework that promotes the introduction of synthetic fuels  NEDO, AIST
c. Increased international recognition
 Examples of JAMA Activities 19

CNF Cost and CO2 emissions research Automobile Oil Innovation (AOI) project
JAMA-PAJ collaboration Project
PAJ: Petroleum Association of Japan

Research into promoting low CO2 WTW emissions by

combining future fuels and future internal combustion
engines in the market in the 2030s

Future fuels Future combustion

Identify suitable liquid fuel compositions (recipes) for

future innovative high-efficiency combustion engines.

Around 2050, future fuel recipes will consist of

synthetic fuels and bio-based resources
Design production processes for MTG, ETG and
FT synthetic fuel.
Calculate the Cost and CO2 emissions by
simulation
Base materials around 2050 (biofuels, e-fuels)
 Examples of CN Initiatives in Japan 20

SATREPS Project by JIRCAS (Japan International Research Center for Agricultural Sciences)
SATREPS (Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable
Development

Crude Oil FAME

POME Biogas
Palm
EFB Solid fuel

OPT Liquid Fuel

OPT: Oil Palm Tree
POME: Palm Oil Mill Effluent

Green Innovation Fund: a. Synthetic Fuel b. Alcohol to Jet (ATJ)

ENEOS Idemitsu Target: 100 yen range/L
FY2022–FY2029 FY2022 to FY2026

Ethanol C2H4
Dehydration
Oligomer
ATJ
Hydrogenation
 Summary 21

1. CNF is one of the key pathways to the 2050 carbon neutrality goal.
2. CNF has merits in terms of energy security, immediate impact, user
convenience, and utilization of existing infrastructure.
3. Indonesia has abundant bio resources and renewable energy.
The use of biofuels and CNF is one of the most practical approaches.

4. However, there are issues such as cost, supply volumes, efficiency, and
securing a stable supply of raw materials. Therefore:
 Joint initiatives by stakeholders (government, industry, and academia) are
necessary to adopt a specific strategy for the lead-up to CN.
5. Bilateral cooperation between Japan and Indonesia should be promoted on
the use of ethanol and synthetic fuels toward CN.
JAMA has been promoting CNF research and studies, and hopes to cooperate
with Indonesia in their efforts.
 22

Thank you very much

for your attention.