Quality & Quantity (2021) 55:151–172

https://doi.org/10.1007/s11135-020-00998-4

Changes over time in the spatial structure of fertility rates

as a dynamic indicator of urban transformations

Gianluca Egidi1 · Luca Salvati2,3

Published online: 27 May 2020

© Springer Nature B.V. 2020

Abstract
Since fertility varies largely over space responding to socioeconomic transformations, a
spatially explicit analysis of birth rates may contribute to a refined understanding of the
intimate linkage between demographic change and metropolitan growth in low-fertility
countries, and especially in Europe. The present study investigates changes in the spatial
structure of fertility levels over 60 years (1956–2016) in a Southern European metropolitan
area (Athens, Greece) with the aim to quantify the impact of long- and short-term socioec-
onomic transformations on regional and local fertility patterns. A statistical approach inte-
grating global and local Moran’s spatial autocorrelation indexes, non-parametric inference,
and multivariate exploratory techniques was adopted to investigate the influence of a long-
term urban cycle (urbanization, suburbanization, counter-urbanization, re-urbanization)
and short-term economic downturns (expansion vs. recession) on the spatial structure of
fertility rates. The empirical results of the present study suggest that local fertility in Ath-
ens responds to socioeconomic transformations reflecting a complete urban cycle. The spa-
tial structure of local fertility is demonstrated to be a relatively stable feature of complex
metropolitan systems, being influenced by social changes during medium-long time scales.

Keywords  Urban–rural divides · Urban cycles · Demographic transitions · Spatial

analysis · Mediterranean Europe

* Luca Salvati
luca.salvati@unimc.it
Gianluca Egidi
edigi.gianluca@unitus.it
1
Department of Agricultural and Forestry Sciences (DAFNE), University of Tuscia, Via S. Camillo
De Lellis snc, 01100 Viterbo, Italy
2
Department of Economics and Law, University of Macerata, Via Armaroli 43, 62100 Macerata,
Italy
3
Global Change Research Institute of the Czech Academy of Sciences, Lipová 9,
37005 Ceske Budejovice, Czech Republic

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 152 G. Egidi, L. Salvati

1 Introduction

Social science research indicates that demographic divides in Europe have persisted over
recent decades (Hank 2001; Arapoglou and Sayas 2009; Haase et  al. 2010), being more
intense in regions with a traditional economic base, social segregaton, and urban shrink-
age (Boyle 2003; Potter et  al. 2010; De Rosa and Salvati 2016). In this context, knowl-
edge of spatio-temporal fertility patterns and trends has been recently improved (Sobotka
2004; Butler 2004; Mills 2010; Kulu 2013; Vitali and Billari 2017). Since the late 1980s,
an increasing number of European countries exhibited a particularly low level of fertility
(Caldwell and Schindlmayr 2003), associated with a progressive transformation of family
structures, marriage and childbearing postponement, and lower propensity to have more
than one child (Kohler et al. 2002). These transformations reflected population dynamics
typical of the last stages of the first demographic transition (Kirk 1996) and the beginning
of the second demographic transition (Hank 2002; Billari and Kohler 2004; Goldstein et al.
2013).
A (more or less intense) reverse of fertility decline attracted the attention of demogra-
phers in several European countries since the early 2000s (Goldstein et al. 2009; Kulu and
Boyle 2009; Myrskyla et al. 2009). At the same time, fertility varied largely over time and
space, responding positively to economic expansions, and declining (more or less rapidly)
with recessions (Kulu and Vikat 2007; Mills and Begall 2010; Sobotka et al. 2011; Krey-
enfeld et  al. 2012). For instance, the 2007 recession was demonstrated to influence spa-
tio-temporal demographic dynamics, e.g. depressing fertility rates (Lerch 2013; Gavalas
et al. 2014; Cazzola et al. 2016). The average age of women at marriage and childbearing
exceeded 30  years in most of European countries (Rontos 2007, 2010; Kreyenfeld 2010,
Lee and Painter 2013). Fertility trends were negatively influenced by youth unemployment
(Adserà 2004; Vignoli et al. 2012; Tragaki and Bagavos 2014), economic uncertainty (Hof-
mann and Hohmeyer 2013), and other social forces shaping propensity to marriage and
childbearing (Waldorf and Franklin 2002; Voss 2007; Goldstein and Klüsener 2014).
While a vast ensemble of socioeconomic forces may shape regional population trends
(Cherlin et  al. 2013), a comprehensive analysis of the spatial structure of basic demo-
graphic indicators—including fertility rates—contributes to reconnect local-scale popula-
tion dynamics to more general patterns of urban growth (Bocquier and Costa 2015), evi-
dencing the inherent complexity of metropolitan systems (Isik and Pinarcioglu 2006; Kroll
and Kabisch 2012; Salvati et al. 2016). Assuming that demographic dynamics were (more
or less intensively) associated with long-term urban cycles (Lerch 2016), fertility trends in
Europe were increasingly studied at more disaggregated spatial scales, especially in met-
ropolitan contexts (Bocquier 2015). High fertility rates were considered an important fac-
tor of growth in early urbanization stages (Kulu et  al. 2009; Muniz 2009; Kabisch and
Haase 2011; Munafò et  al. 2013). Internal migration and small-range residential mobil-
ity fueled late urbanization and the subsequent suburbanization (Ogden and Hall 2000;
Liu 2005; Lerch 2014; Rees et al. 2017), with a subordinate role of fertility (Bocquier and
Bree 2018). International migration was finally driving the recent expansion of cities in
a context of low fertility and high mortality (Serra et al. 2014; Gkartzios and Scott 2015;
Lerch 2016; Carlucci et al. 2017)—with spatially heterogeneous fertility dynamics reflect-
ing latent changes in family structures, marriage postponement and aging (Pinnelli and Di
Cesare 2005; Haase et al. 2010; Salvati and Carlucci 2017).
While urban–rural fertility divides have been investigated extensively in advanced coun-
tries (e.g. Hank 2001; Thygesen et al. 2005; Kulu and Vikat 2007), fertility in recent times

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Changes over time in the spatial structure of fertility rates… 153

was demonstrated to diverge more at smaller spatial scales, e.g. between small towns and
central cities (Weeks et al. 2000; Hank 2001, 2002; Caltabiano 2008). Suburban communi-
ties were frequently found to have higher fertility than communities living in central cities
(Kulu et al. 2009), with single-family households often related to a particularly high fertil-
ity (Kulu and Vikat 2007). These differentials persist when controlling for the underlying
socioeconomic context (De Beer and Deerenberg 2007; Chi and Zhu 2008; Kulu and Boyle
2009), suggesting that background conditions may outline specific and spatially-homoge-
neous fertility choices (Kulu 2013).
Based on these premises, we assumed that distinctive fertility dynamics—more or
less aligned with urban transformations—took place in inner cities, suburbs and the sur-
rounding rural areas, often producing heterogeneous and unpredictable social landscapes
(Michielin 2004; Garcia 2010; Lee and Painter 2013; Wang and Chi 2017; Panori et  al.
2018; Salvati 2018). In these regards, the present study investigates the spatial structure of
a gross fertility rate in a Southern European metropolitan region (Athens, Greece) over a
relatively long time period (1956–2016), with the aim to identify and quantify the impact
of long- and short-term socioeconomic changes on local fertility patterns. Earlier studies
indicate Athens (and, more generally, Greece) as a paradigmatic example of heterogene-
ous demographic dynamics with a strong linkage with the underlying socioeconomic con-
text (e.g. Arapoglou and Sayas 2009; Di Feliciantonio and Salvati 2015; Zitti et al. 2015).
Analysis of long-term fertility dynamics in the study area provides a unique opportunity
to study apparent and latent linkages between the stage of urban growth and the spatial
structure of local fertility rates along a complete city life cycle (Salvati and Carlucci 2017).
The traditional ‘city life cycle’ model originally proposed by Berry (1976) and subse-
quently adopted in seminal works by Klaassen et al. (1981) and van den Berg et al. (1982),
identified four stages of growth (urbanization, suburbanization, counter-urbanization and
re-urbanization). Although sometimes criticized for the simplified approach to the intrin-
sic complexity of urban dynamics (Salvati et al. 2016), this framework is still regarded as
representative of basic socioeconomic transitions in metropolitan regions—especially in
Southern Europe (Carlucci et  al. 2017; Cuadrado-Ciuraneta et  al. 2017; Duvernoy et  al.
2018)—and for this reason it was adopted in the present study. Following specific stud-
ies dealing with the recent Athens’ development (Morelli et al. 2014; Rontos et al. 2016;
Pili et al. 2017), the city life cycle was characterized by sequential waves of urbanization
(between World War II and the late 1970s) and suburbanization (approximately between
the 1970s and the late 1990s), with a subsequent trend towards counter-urbanization
(Gkartzios and Scott 2015; Di Feliciantonio et al. 2018; Panori et al. 2018). More recent
evidences suggest the emergence of re-urbanization processes (Pili et al. 2017).
Fuelled by population dynamics, real estate speculation, volatile land prices, class
segregation and planning deregulation, post-war compact urbanization in Athens was
increasingly dependent on the accelerated demographic dynamics typical of the 1950s and
the 1960s (Colantoni et  al. 2016; Rontos et  al. 2016; Zambon et  al. 2017). On the con-
trary, suburbanization was associated with demographic decline of the historical center
and higher fertility in fringe districts (Arapoglou and Sayas 2009). Up to the late 1990s,
counter-urbanization determined a progressive abandonment of central settlements, mak-
ing residential mobility a key driver of urban growth—in a context of population ageing
and low fertility (Michielin 2004; Haase et  al. 2010; Munafò et  al. 2013; Lerch 2014).
Finally, re-urbanization manifested more recently in a relatively puzzled way, as a result
of gentrification, international migration, social segregation and filtering (Di Feliciantonio
and Salvati 2015; Di Feliciantonio et al. 2018; Carlucci et al. 2017; Panori et al. 2018). In
this regard, the impact of recent economic dynamics was indirectly evaluated through the

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 154 G. Egidi, L. Salvati

analysis of changes in the spatial regime of fertility during expansion (2000–2008) and
recession (2009–2016).
A statistical approach integrating spatial analysis (Moran’s global and local indexes of
spatial autocorrelation), parametric and non-parametric inference and exploratory multi-
variate statistics was adopted here with the aim to assess the influence of (1) individual
stages of a long-term urban cycle from the early 1950s to nowadays (urbanization, subur-
banization, counter-urbanization, and re-urbanization) and (2) short-term economic down-
turns (the most recent phases of expansion and recession from the late 1990s to nowadays)
on fertility trends (Salvati and Carlucci 2017). In particular, this work hypothesized that
the spatial structure of local fertility responds to social transformations coinciding with
individual stages of a complete urban cycle, and controls for the impact of short-term eco-
nomic downturns (Muniz 2009). In other words, this study aims at verifying if the spatial
structure of local fertility is a relatively stable feature of urban systems, being influenced
by socioeconomic transformations across medium-long time scales. At the same time, our
work tries to demonstrate how changes over time in the spatial structure of a basic indicator
of fertility are a slow but irreversible process—contributing either to reduce or to consoli-
date urban–rural divides that impact the spatial structure of cities.
The paper is organized as follows: Sect.  2 describes the methodology adopted in this
study and the statistical data analyzed through descriptive, inferential and multivariate
approaches. Section  3 reports the most relevant results of the quantitative analysis. Sec-
tion  4 provides a long discussion of these results, offering a comparative view of local
demographic dynamics in similar socioeconomic contexts in Southern Europe and, finally,
Sect. 5 gives some concluding remarks focusing on the originality and novelty of this work
and providing suggestions for future investigations of the complex relationship between
demographic dynamics and urban cycles.

2 Methodology

2.1 Study area

The present study investigates demographic dynamics in a large urban region (nearly
3000 km2) of Southern Europe (Athens, Greece). Boundaries of the study area were identi-
fied according with the Urban Atlas (UA) classification of metropolitan regions in Europe
(Salvati and Serra 2016) and mostly coincide with the administrative region of Attica (Pili
et al. 2017). Municipalities were regarded as the elementary analysis’ domain of this work
(Fig.  1), in line with earlier studies investigating urban growth and population trends in
Greece (Colantoni et al. 2016; Rontos et al. 2016; Zambon et al. 2017).
A partition in 114 statutory municipalities (and local communities) was adopted here:
58 municipalities formed the conurbation of Athens-Piraeus (430 km2), hereafter called the
‘Greater Athens’ area’, characterized by high settlement density and purely compact urban
development (Morelli et al. 2014). The remaining 56 municipalities have mostly peri-urban
or rural characteristics (Zitti et al. 2015). Population residing in the study area amounted
to nearly 1.5 million inhabitants in 1951 (501 inhabitants/km2) and increased to 3.8 million
inhabitants in 2011 (1248 inhabitants/km2). The Athens’ case is representative of Mediter-
ranean contexts experiencing changes in the socioeconomic relationship among relevant
territorial actors because of intense and spatially complex metropolitan transformations
(e.g. Duvernoy et al. 2018).

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Changes over time in the spatial structure of fertility rates… 155

Fig. 1  A map illustrating the Athens’ metropolitan region, the main districts and locations in the area

2.2 Demographic data

The present study provides a comprehensive analysis of the spatial distribution of a basic
indicator of fertility across the study area over a sufficiently long time interval between
1956 and 2016. Total fertility rate, i.e. the number of children in the total number of
women in fertile age, was adopted here as a generalized indicator of fertility (Lerch 2014).
This indicator has been used extensively to describe regional demographic patterns and
trends (e.g. Muniz 2009; Bocquier 2015; Salvati and Carlucci 2017), sometimes control-
ling for the underlying territorial and socioeconomic structure (Vitali and Billari 2017).
More specifically, period fertility rates were derived from computation on the total number
of births observed at a given time point (e.g. year) and the contingent of women at fertile
age (15–49 years) at the same location and time. Official statistics of births and population
age structure at a given time (year) and location (municipalities) have been obtained from

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 156 G. Egidi, L. Salvati

the Hellenic Statistical Authority (ELSTAT) for 8  years (1956, 1960, 1970, 1980, 1990,
2000, 2008 and 2016). Birth data were derived from vital statistics released annually by the
ELSTAT for the whole of Greece and for specific territorial partitions of the country using
one of these two approaches: (1) extraction from digital data collected from the ELSTAT
web site or made available after an ad-hoc request, or (2) manual digitalization of statisti-
cal data reported in official publications of the ELSTAT and made available in a specific
digital library (www.stati​stics​.gr). Information on population structure by sex and age class
were derived at the same spatial scale from the national Census of Population and House-
holds held every 10 years in Greece.
The use of relatively long time series of local fertility rates brings some problems that
should be faced before elementary data or the related indicators are considered in further
analysis (Muniz 2009). While the selected territorial disaggregation of municipalities (and
local communities) in the study area was representative of the metropolitan hierarchy since
the early 1950s—when the majority of urban centers and rural villages were already popu-
lated and forming autonomous administrative units (Pili et al. 2017), demographic rates for
a few spatial domains were estimated for the first 2 years of investigation (1956 and 1960)
considering additional information derived from ELSTAT (when available) or calculated
from the related demographic figures and rates as the average of the five nearest spatial
units (e.g. Colantoni et al. 2016; Rontos et al. 2016; Salvati et al. 2016). At the same time,
the use of such indicators could bring to a partial overview of local fertility (e.g. Bon-
gaarts and Feeney 1998), since fertility estimates for small areas can be more vulnerable to
the influence of external factors, e.g. in- and out-migration, than estimates for larger areas
(Toulemon 2004).
However, when finding the most appropriate approach and indicators delineating the
relationship between fertility and development shifts through time and space, we assumed
that “the importance of each variable depends on its spatial distribution” (Muniz 2009).
Considering the level of fertility of neighboring municipalities as a predictor for local fer-
tility rates (Salvati and Carlucci 2017), the present study implemented a descriptive analy-
sis of local fertility under the hypothesis that past fertility is a significant determinant of
how quickly fertility declines (Muniz 2009). Based on these premises, the use of a basic
indicator of fertility from official statistics supplemented with the results of spatial clus-
tering techniques—as we did in this study—was considered detailed enough to assure a
comprehensive investigation of past and present fertility trends, taking account of spatial
heterogeneity and socioeconomic changes.

2.3 Contextual variables

Demographic data were supplemented with 8 variables assessing basic (territorial and soci-
oeconomic) characteristics of each municipality in the study area. These variables include:
(1–4) the linear distance from 4 important urban nodes in the Athens’ metropolitan region
(downtown Athens, Piraeus harbor, Maroussi-Olympic Stadium, Markopoulo Messoghias-
Airport), (5) average municipal elevation (m at the sea level), (6) proximity to the sea coast
(a dummy variable classifying municipalities as coastal: ‘0’ or internal: ‘1’), (7) soil qual-
ity index, and (8) per-capita income (a dummy variable distinguishing affluent (‘0’) from
economically disadvantaged (‘1’) municipalities). These variables were extensively used in
earlier studies profiling socioeconomic characteristics of the study area; technical details
can be found in Colantoni et al. (2016), Salvati and Serra (2016) and Pili et al. (2017).

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Changes over time in the spatial structure of fertility rates… 157

More specifically, these variables describe the territorial structure of the Athens’ met-
ropolitan region (elevation) focusing on accessibility (distance from downtown Athens),
urban–rural divides (distance from Piraeus), and land capability for agriculture or forestry
(soil quality index) taken as an indicator of dynamic (agriculture) or marginal (forest) con-
texts in peri-urban and rural Attica (e.g. Colantoni et al. 2015). The (potential) role of sub-
centers (distance from Maroussi-Olympic Stadium and Markopoulo Messoghias-Airport)
and natural amenities (proximity to the sea coast) shaping past and present urban growth
was also evaluated (Pili et  al. 2017). Finally, socioeconomic conditions were assessed
using a simplified variable that reflects the East–West gradient in Athens. This approach
takes account of the well-known polarization in wealthier urban districts (situated in East-
ern Athens) and economically disadvantaged districts of Western Athens (Di Feliciantonio
et al. 2018). This spatial pattern was observed since the late 1950s and is still evident now-
adays (Arapoglou and Sayas 2009; Di Feliciantonio and Salvati 2015; Rontos et al. 2016).
Taken together, these variables provide a detailed overview of the evolution of settlements
in the study area along the different stages of the Athens’ life cycle. A shapefile of munici-
pal boundaries produced and disseminated by ELSTAT was used to create maps and to per-
form spatial analysis of demographic and contextual indicators using the ArcGIS ‘Spatial
Analyst’ tool (ESRI, Inc., Redwoods, USA).

2.4 Data analysis

An integrated statistical approach was developed in this study with the aim of identify-
ing possible changes in the distribution of fertility rates at different stages of the city life
cycle. This approach integrates descriptive statistics, spatial autocorrelation analysis, para-
metric and non-parametric inference (using pair-wise Pearson and Spearman coefficients),
and exploratory multivariate data analysis (hierarchical clustering, Principal Component
Analysis). Similarities or differences over time in fertility rates were studied at different
geographical scales—from urban (local) to metropolitan (regional). A diachronic analy-
sis of spatial autocorrelation coefficients (global Moran’s z-score) applied to local fertility
rates has been proposed with the aim of verifying homogeneity (or diversification) in the
spatial structure of fertility over time. Moran’s indexes are measures of spatial autocor-
relation, i.e. a correlation in a given variable among nearby locations in space, that can be
computed at global scale (producing an overall coefficient of spatial autocorrelation for
the entire study area) or at local scale (producing coefficients of spatial autocorrelation for
each elementary spatial unit in the study area). Spatial autocorrelation is more complex
than one-dimensional autocorrelation because spatial correlation is multi-dimensional (i.e.
2 or 3 dimensions of space) and multi-directional (Salvati and Serra 2016).
A hierarchical clustering has been developed on a data matrix constituted of Moran’s
global coefficients by year and bandwidth in order to identify (apparent and latent) changes
in the spatial distribution of fertility rates over the city life cycle. Local Moran’s spatial
autocorrelation coefficients were calculated with the aim at discriminating spatial cluster-
ing or heterogeneity in local fertility rates. Having a long historical series of demographic
data, this allows identification of high (and low) fertility areas, and their persistence over
time. Assuming that temporal persistence of spatial clusters with different fertility levels
is associated with a specific stage of the urban cycle (Salvati and Carlucci 2017), trans-
formations in their territorial structure may indicate transition to a new stage of the cycle
(Morelli et al. 2014). For each observation year, a correlation analysis was also performed
to test the significance of the relationship between the local fertility structure (local

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 158 G. Egidi, L. Salvati

Moran’s index) and the distance from downtown Athens. Assuming a mono-centric model
(Salvati and Serra 2016), results of this analysis contribute to characterize spatial clustering
along the urban gradient, one of the most effective factors influencing regional fertility in
the Mediterranean region (Serra et al. 2014). A diachronic analysis of the influence of the
background (territorial and socioeconomic) context on the spatial regime of fertility was
finally carried out through a Principal Component Analysis. This technique was adopted to
demonstrate how the Athens’ life cycle (Morelli et al. 2014) was associated with specific
changes in the spatial structure of local fertility.

2.4.1 Descriptive statistics

A descriptive analysis of regional and local fertility rates was carried out in the study area
through the use of simple statistics (e.g. average, median, absolute range, percentiles, coef-
ficient of variation). These statistics were calculated with the aim to provide insights in the
statistical distribution of fertility rates in the study area at the 8 study years.

2.4.2 A global Moran’s analysis of spatial autocorrelation in total fertility rates

in Athens

Using municipal-level data, a global Moran’s index of spatial autocorrelation in fertility

rates (z-score and the related p value) was calculated for 8 time intervals, considering sepa-
rately 10 bandwidths (2.5, 5, 7.5, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30, 35 and 40 km) representative of differ-
ent spatial scales from strictly urban (2.5 km) to metropolitan at large (40 km). Coefficients
were tested for significance at p < 0.001 under the null hypothesis of no spatial relationship
in fertility levels. Taking account of changes in the global Moran’s index (z-score) at dif-
ferent bandwidths allows a comparative estimation of intensity and extent of spatial inter-
actions between the selected analysis’ domains, i.e. municipalities (Salvati and Carlucci
2017).

2.4.3 Hierarchical clustering

A hierarchical clustering based on Ward’s agglomeration rule computed on a matrix of

Euclidean distances (Di Feliciantonio et al. 2018) was run on a data matrix composed of
the global Moran’s auto-correlation coefficients by year and bandwidth (see Sect.  2.4.2).
Separate dendrograms were prepared for years and bandwidths with the aim to illustrate
similarities in the spatial structure of fertility rates across geographical scales and along the
investigated time horizon.

2.4.4 A local Moran’s analysis of spatial autocorrelation in fertility levels

Fertility divides reflecting a (more or less steep) gradient in the studied variable reveal spe-
cific spatial regimes changing (more or less rapidly) over time (Salvati et al. 2016). A dia-
chronic investigation of high (or low) fertility clusters was carried out using local Moran’s
coefficients of spatial autocorrelation (z-scores) calculated at each year and municipality of
the study area and illustrated through maps. Based on the local Moran’s coefficient at each
location, municipalities were classified as (1) high fertility hotspots (high rates with similar
neighbors) when z-score > 2 and (2) low fertility cold spots (low rates with similar neigh-
bors) when z-score < − 2.

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Changes over time in the spatial structure of fertility rates… 159

2.4.5 Exploring correlation between local Moran’s coefficients and distance

from downtown Athens

The spatial relationship between local Moran’s coefficients of spatial autocorrelation

(z-scores) and the distance of each municipality from downtown Athens was tested for sig-
nificance (p < 0.05 after Bonferroni’s correction for multiple comparisons) using pair-wise
parametric (Pearson) and non-parametric (Spearman, Kendall) correlation coefficients.
The use of both parametric and non-parametric inference contributes to discriminate linear
from non-linear correlations in the studied variables (Pili et  al. 2017), assuming to find
both types of relationship between them.

2.4.6 Principal component analysis

A Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was finally run on the (municipal-scale) data
matrix composed of 16 variables (8 annual series of local Moran’s coefficients and 8 con-
textual variables, see Sect. 2.3) with the aim to assess the multivariate relationship between
the (evolving) spatial structure of local fertility and the background (territorial and soci-
oeconomic) context. PCA is a multivariate exploratory analysis aimed at evaluating the
(latent) correlation structure in a complex dataset, after reducing redundancy and multi-
collinearity among variables (Duvernoy et al. 2018). More specifically, changes over time
in the (multivariate) correlation between background variables and the spatial structure of
fertility in Athens were considered indicative of the latent impact of urban stages on demo-
graphic patterns and processes (Salvati and Carlucci 2017). Components with eigenval-
ues > 1 were retained and analyzed. Component loadings > |0.5| were considered significant
when identifying multivariate relationships among variables (Colantoni et al. 2016).

3 Results

3.1 Descriptive statistics

Fertility levels in the study area were relatively high up to the late 1970s (Table 1), decreas-
ing since the late 1980s; the lowest value was recorded for 2000. With economic expan-
sion, a moderate recovery in fertility was observed in the late 2000s. With crisis, fertility
levels decreased again. Spatial variability of fertility rates across municipalities decreased
slowly between 1956 and 2000, increasing moderately in 2008 and 2016. The lowest

Table 1  Descriptive statistics of the distribution of fertility rates in the municipalities of the Athens’ metro-
politan region (n = 114)
Variable 1956 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2008 2016

Average 2.14 1.92 2.02 1.89 1.29 1.19 1.50 1.37

Coeff. variation 42.1 37.5 35.1 34.5 29.5 29.1 33.8 38.0
25th percentile 1.23 1.41 1.62 1.44 1.06 0.97 1.30 1.15
75th percentile 2.57 2.46 2.44 2.38 1.55 1.39 1.67 1.56
Median/average 0.86 1.00 1.00 1.06 1.04 1.03 1.01 0.98
Normalized range 2.95 1.92 1.78 1.62 1.64 1.87 2.46 2.31

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 160 G. Egidi, L. Salvati

spatial variability in fertility rates was recorded for 2000. The normalized range of fertility
rates followed a comparable trend over time: spatially-heterogeneous rates were recorded
for 1956 and 2008. Trends over time in both 25th and 75th percentiles highlight an overall
reduction of fertility since the early 1990s. Median and mean rates converged since the
early 1960s, indicating a quasi-normal statistical distribution of fertility rates in the study
area: the median-to-mean ratio was 1 in 1960 and 1970 and deviated slightly from 1 in
2008 and 2016.

3.2 A global Moran’s index of spatial autocorrelation in total fertility rates

in Athens

The global Moran’s index of spatial auto-correlation in local fertility rates was calculated
for 10 bandwidths and showed a comparable trend over time (Fig. 2). The global Moran’s
index was low and statistically insignificant for two bandwidths (2.5 km and 5 km). The
highest values of the index were observed for bandwidths ranging between 15 and 20 km,
decreasing moderately at larger bandwidths—between 25 and 40  km—and maintaining
relatively stable over time. The 2  years with the highest indexes at all the investigated
bandwidths were 1956 and 1980. Conversely, 2008 and 2016 were the years with the low-
est coefficients of spatial auto-correlation for all bandwidths.

3.3 Hierarchical clustering

A cluster analysis (Euclidean distances, Ward’s agglomeration rule) was run on the data
matrix composed of global Moran’s auto-correlation coefficients, grouping separately years
and bandwidths (Fig. 3). Hierarchical clustering showed differences in the spatial regime
of fertility between smaller neighborhoods (< 5 km) and intermediate-large neighborhoods
(> 5  km)—although the greatest similarity was observed for neighborhoods between 15
and 25 km. These results reveal a spatial regime with the highest similarity at the urban
scale (15–25  km) and the lowest similarity at the local (neighboring) scale (< 7.5  km).

Fig. 2  Distribution of the global Moran’s index of spatial autocorrelation in total fertility by year and band-
width

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Fig. 3  A dendrogram (hierarchical clustering with Euclidean distances and Ward’s agglomeration rule as amalgamation parameters) illustrating similarities in global Moran’s
indexes of spatial autocorrelation by bandwidth, km (left) and year (right)
161

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 162 G. Egidi, L. Salvati

An intermediate level of similarity was observed at larger scales (30–40 km). Time peri-
ods (i.e. years) with accelerated urban growth and concentration of resident population in
central districts were classified together (1956 and 1980). A high similarity in the spatial
regime of local fertility was also observed for specific years (1960, 1970, 2000) reflecting a
transition between subsequent urban stages (respectively from urbanization to suburbaniza-
tion and from suburbanization to counter-urbanization). The spatial regime observed for
the last 2  years (2008 and 2016) showed greater similarity with that recorded for 1990.
These periods were characterized by a particularly low level of fertility at the regional (and
country) scale.

3.4 A local Moran’s analysis of spatial autocorrelation in fertility levels

The statistical analysis of local Moran’s coefficients outlines changes over time in the spa-
tial regime of fertility (Fig. 4). Highly positive auto-correlation coefficients (indicating spa-
tial clustering) were found (1) in rural municipalities north of Athens for 1956 and (2) in
peri-urban municipalities surrounding the Greater Athens’ area since the early 1960s. The
highest (positive) local Moran’s coefficients were observed for 1980 in urban locations. In
the subsequent decades, the highest positive auto-correlation coefficients were recorded in
some peripheral municipalities West of Athens (1990), in suburban municipalities East and
West of Athens (2000) and, more specifically, in Western Attica locations (2008 and 2016).
Conversely, municipalities characterized by local Moran’s negative coefficients (< 2) were
scattered all over the study area, concentrating preferentially in rural, marginal locations
West, North-east and South of Athens.

3.5 Exploring correlation between local Moran’s coefficients and distance

from downtown Athens

The relationship between the local Moran’s indexes of spatial autocorrelation and the dis-
tance from downtown Athens was studied graphically (Fig. 5) and through hypothesis test-
ing (Table 2). The results of both parametric (Pearson) and non-parametric (Spearman and
Kendall) inference indicate a significant and negative correlation between the two variables
for the years 1980, 1990, and 2000. Correlation coefficients declined sharply in both 2008
and 2016. By contrast, the statistical correlation between the two variables was negative
and non-significant at the beginning of the study period.

3.6 Principal component analysis

The results of a principal component analysis investigating changes over time in the spatial
regime of local fertility together with (municipal-scale) background variables were pre-
sented in Table 3. Three components were extracted explaining together 59% of total vari-
ance of the data matrix. Component 1 (30%) was found negatively associated with the local
Moran’s coefficients of spatial autocorrelation during most of the study years (decreasing
between 1956 and 2000) and positively associated with the distance from three urban cent-
ers (Athens, Piraeus and Maroussi). Component 2 (17%) was negatively associated with
the local Moran’s coefficients for 1960 and 1970, and with the distance from all urban
centers considered in this study. Finally, component 3 (12%) was negatively correlated
with local Moran’s and the average elevation of each municipality at the last three years of

13
 Changes over time in the spatial structure of fertility rates…

Fig. 4  Spatial distribution of the Moran’s local index of spatial autocorrelation in total fertility rate by year
163

13
 164

13
Fig. 5  Empirical relationship between the local Moran’s index of spatial autocorrelation in total fertility rate (z-score) and the distance from downtown Athens (dAth, km) by
year
G. Egidi, L. Salvati
Changes over time in the spatial structure of fertility rates… 165

Table 2  Parametric (Pearson) Year Pearson Spearman Kendall

and non-parametric (Spearman
and Kendall) pair-wise
1956 − 0.17 0.05 0.06
correlation coefficients between
local Moran’s index of spatial 1960 − 0.16 − 0.10 − 0.06
autocorrelation in total fertility 1970 − 0.19 − 0.19 − 0.13
rate and distance from downtown 1980 − 0.37 − 0.44 − 0.29
Athens (km) by year (bold
1990 − 0.34 − 0.42 − 0.28
indicates significance at p < 0.05
after Bonferroni’s correction for 2000 − 0.26 − 0.27 − 0.18
multiple comparisons) 2008 − 0.23 − 0.18 − 0.13
2016 − 0.01 0.13 0.11

Table 3  Principal component Variable PC 1 PC 2 PC 3

analysis identifying latent spatial
structures in the local Moran’s
Moran’s local index (z-score)
index of spatial autocorrelation
of fertility levels and background 1956 − 0.59
(territorial and socioeconomic) 1960 − 0.71 − 0.41
variables in the Athens’ 1970 − 0.72 − 0.40
metropolitan region (only
1980 − 0.81
component’s loadings > |0.4|
were shown) 1990 − 0.81
2000 − 0.68 − 0.49
2008 − 0.52 − 0.70
2016 − 0.58
Distance from Athens 0.66 − 0.68
Distance from Piraeus 0.61 − 0.47
Distance from Maroussi 0.52 − 0.69
Distance from Messoghias − 0.74
Elevation − 0.43
Proximity to the sea coast
Soil quality
Per-capita income (low) − 0.51
Explained variance 29.8 16.9 12.1

investigation (2000, 2008, 2016). Taken together, these findings suggest that, with urbani-
zation, the spatial structure of fertility was associated with the urban gradient (which is
partly coinciding with the elevation gradient in the study area). The intensity of this rela-
tionship decreased with suburbanization and, much more, with counter-urbanization.

4 Discussion

Assuming the influence of territorial structures, culture, institutions and policy strategies
on local fertility (Bongaarts and Watkins 1996; Dijkstra et al. 2015; Carbonaro et al. 2018),
a comprehensive explanation of current fertility declines in advanced economies requires
a contextual understanding of local socio-demographic patterns and the related economic

13
 166 G. Egidi, L. Salvati

forces (Wang and Chi 2017). Although relatively few works dealt with long-term changes
in the spatial regime of population variables (Işik and Pinarcioglu 2006; Muniz 2009; Pot-
ter et al. 2010; Goldstein and Klüsener 2014), earlier studies have identified specific spa-
tial patterns and structures for different demographic dimensions, including fertility (e.g.
Weeks et  al. 2000; Waldorf and Franklin 2002; Goodchild and Janelle 2004). Although
spatial contiguity normally implies dependence in demographic behaviors, the concept
of spatial auto-correlation was more recently considered in regional demography (Castro
2007), assuming spatial heterogeneity as a trait of recent fertility trends (Vitali and Bil-
lari 2017). In these regards, spatial analysis is appropriate to represent how fertility varies
over space, providing an original interpretation of the long-term evolution of demographic
divides among urban and rural areas (Kulu and Boyle 2009; Haase et al. 2010; Di Felician-
tonio et al. 2018).
Although spatial dependence in fertility rates has been continuously observed along the
study period, our work highlights how polarization in high and low fertility clusters is not
a common phenomenon to all phases of the Athens’ growth. A polarized spatial structure
was observed with the ‘urbanization’ stage, basically from 1956 to 1980. Spatial analysis
also indicates that similar fertility patterns were clustered in areas with a specific territorial
and socioeconomic profile. A closely polarized structure associated with rapid population
growth in central districts was observed in the mid-1950s. At this stage, a high fertility
cluster was observed in a rural area North of Athens, declining progressively in the subse-
quent decades. Clustered structures were also observed in the 1960s and the 1970s, outlin-
ing a divide between the Greater Athens’ area (with the highest fertility) and rural munici-
palities (with the lowest fertility). In the same years, the highest population concentration
(92% of Attica inhabitants) and the highest rate of population growth (2% per year) were
observed in the Greater Athens’ area (Salvati 2018). Natural balance and internal migra-
tion from rural areas both contributed to population growth in central Athens (Rontos et al.
2016). At a larger scale, the 1970s coincided—in Greece and in other Mediterranean coun-
tries—with an impressive demographic boom, followed by a rapid and continuous decline
in fertility (Rontos 2010; Gavalas et al. 2014; Kotzamanis and Kostaki 2015; Kotzamanis
et al. 2017).
The most polarized structure was observed for 1980, a period coinciding with the high-
est urban concentration in the Greater Athens’ area and with the end of the ‘urbanization’
stage. At that time, the largest high-fertility cluster (z-score > 2) coincided with the Greater
Athens’ area. Low-fertility clusters were observed in marginal, rural areas West, North-
east, and South of Athens, emphasizing the importance of the urban gradient. Results of
Pearson and Spearman correlation analysis went in the same direction: the highest and
significant correlation coefficients between local Moran’s z-scores and ​​ the distance from
downtown Athens were observed for 1980, and progressively decreased in the following
period, becoming non-significant since 2008.
With ‘suburbanization’, a shift from a clustered spatial regime to a more heterogene-
ous structure of fertility took place over a relatively long time period (Morelli et al. 2014).
In this regard, the 1980s were a turning point in the spatial regime of fertility in Ath-
ens: spatial polarization in high- and low-fertility districts decreased and a new, smaller
cluster located in a suburban area west of the city emerged and persisted in the follow-
ing decades. In other words, the spatial distribution of high-fertility districts in the 1980s
and 1990s reflected a progressive suburbanization—with the rapid development of peri-
urban districts physically independent from the Greater Athens’ area. Since the 1990s,
territorial disparities in fertility levels have been further reduced and the spatial structure
of fertility rates became progressively less clustered (Salvati and Carlucci 2017). With

13
Changes over time in the spatial structure of fertility rates… 167

counter-urbanization, the increased heterogeneity in fertility levels has been fairly evident
in the study area. These results seem to be in line with empirical evidence of previous
studies carried out in other socioeconomic contexts (e.g. Muniz 2009). This structure has
changed little during the 2000s, when a moderate recovery of fertility was observed (from
1.2 to 1.5 children per woman between 2000 and 2008). While a new reduction in fertility
rates was observed in the subsequent years coinciding with the great recession, the spatial
structure of local fertility remained (more or less) comparable to what was observed in the
time period before the economic crisis (2008).
Spatial heterogeneity in local fertility is presumably the result of individual attitudes
towards family formation and childbearing; these became increasingly diversified and less
influenced by the local context (Vitali and Billari 2017). Compared with the past, the back-
ground (territorial and socioeconomic) context was becoming a less important factor in the
discrimination between high and low fertility areas, as demonstrated by the results of the
correlation analysis. At the same time, spatial heterogeneity characterizing fertility patterns
in recent years may reflect a transition towards more dispersed and chaotic urban models
typical of the late phase of counter-urbanization (Carlucci et al. 2017), likely anticipating
a new phase of re-urbanization (Salvati 2018). The increased unpredictability of spatio-
temporal changes in small-scale fertility rates makes it also more difficult to estimate the
contribution of different spatial trends to fertility levels at regional or national scale (Ron-
tos 2007, 2010).
The present study finally suggests that spatial fertility structures in Athens are more
associated with long-term urban transformations than with short-term economic dynam-
ics. As a matter of fact, changes in the spatial structure of fertility during the most recent
economic downturns (expansion between 2000 and 2008; recession between 2009 and
2016) were relatively weak. While regional fertility patterns were sometimes demonstrated
to be associated with short-term economic dynamics (e.g. Tragaki and Bagavos 2019 for
Greece), local spatial structures demonstrated to be less sensitive to such trends (Salvati
2018). Although the most recent economic crisis has sometimes exacerbated the divide
between rich and poor districts (Di Feliciantonio et  al. 2018), the impact on the spatial
structure of fertility rates was relatively modest in Athens (Rontos et al. 2016). As fertility
levels generally respond slowly to the effects of an economic crisis, further investigations
could provide more refined results considering longer demographic time series that include
a greater number of economic events.
Based on these results, changes in the spatial structure of local fertility is considered
a demographic indicator reflecting different stages of a complete urban cycle in Athens.
More specifically, our work outlines how the relationship between the spatial structure of
fertility and urban configuration (e.g. the distance from downtown Athens) changes with
the different stages of the city life cycle. Assuming that demographic dynamics are a key
component of cities’ attractiveness (Dijkstra et  al. 2015), a spatially explicit analysis of
metropolitan population trends covering enough long time intervals has demonstrated to
provide appropriate insights in urban theory and valuable suggestions to regional planning
and design of social policies more aligned with demographic change (Lerch 2014; Salvati
et al. 2016; Carbonaro et al. 2018).
Formation of new family structures, aging, gentrification of inner cities, migration and
social filtering, were important phenomena that can be more effectively managed through
integrated socioeconomic policies in metropolitan areas (Buzar et al. 2005; Arapoglou and
Sayas 2009; Lauf et  al. 2012). At the same time, recent processes of re-densification of
central districts are intimately dependent on demographic dynamics and should be consid-
ered in strategies aimed at regulating urban growth (Haase et al. 2010; Kabisch and Haase

13
 168 G. Egidi, L. Salvati

2011; Kroll and Kabisch 2012), e.g. through containment of settlement sprawl in suburban
locations (Munafò et al. 2013; Colantoni et al. 2015; Duvernoy et al. 2018; Zambon et al.
2018).
From the methodological perspective, the increased availability of small-scale data, and
improvements in demographic indicators, analytical approaches and spatial techniques,
allowed a refined analysis of regional fertility trends. Although the approach proposed in
this study is eminently descriptive and exploratory, it proved suitable to identify the inti-
mate linkage between urban transformations and changes in the spatial structure of local
fertility. By integrating descriptive statistics, parametric and non-parametric inference and
multivariate exploratory techniques, this approach can be adopted in demographic investi-
gation of other socioeconomic contexts characterized by (more or less) rapid changes in the
spatial regime of fertility (Morelli et al. 2014). More specifically, the adopted framework
support the use of spatially explicit and implicit techniques that can be applied to urban
studies in other Southern European countries. Novelty of our approach lies in the complete
integration of spatially explicit and implicit exploratory approaches in a common analysis
of regional demography.
Especially when geo-referenced data are available that cover a sufficiently long time
period representative of important urban transformations, results of the analytical frame-
work proposed in this study may integrate findings from econometric models grounded on
economic growth theories and the empirical knowledge derived from application of urban
theories (Michielin 2004; Chi and Zhu 2008; Cazzola et al. 2016). Compared to such mod-
els, the proposed approach seems to be particularly appropriate in the study of similarities
(or differences) in fertility patterns at different geographical scales—from urban (local) to
metropolitan (regional). This will definitely contribute to a refined understanding of multi-
scale socio-demographic dynamics typical of contemporary cities (Salvati et  al. 2016).
Results of our study finally outline the importance of geo-referenced data covering long
time intervals. Availability of vital statistics at disaggregated spatial scales (e.g. munici-
palities) since the early 1950s allows a more accurate investigation of the spatial regime
underpinning demographic changes at both national, regional and local scale in Europe.
The extensive knowledge provided by empirical studies that develop a spatial interpretation
of demographic dynamics vis-à-vis urban change may also contribute to improve accuracy
of regional population projections (Bocquier 2015).

5 Conclusion

The empirical results of this study highlight important changes in the spatial pattern of fer-
tility rates in the Athens’ metropolitan region. In particular, the spatial structure of local fer-
tility identified homogeneous areas with similar birth rates in the period between 1956 and
1980. Being the result of accelerated population growth, urbanization was associated with
an evident fertility divide in urban and rural districts, especially at the end of the urbaniza-
tion wave (1980). The highest population concentration in the Greater Athens’ area and
the most intense socioeconomic disparities between urban and rural areas were observed
at that time. The progressive decline of spatial clustering in local fertility observed in the
1980s coincided with suburbanization. Consequently, the spatial structure of fertility was
less dependent on the urban gradient in the subsequent time period. Spatial segregation
of population with similar fertility behaviors was increasingly reduced, outlining a less

13
Changes over time in the spatial structure of fertility rates… 169

polarized (and more heterogeneous) spatial structure during counter-urbanization. In this

time period, spatial heterogeneity was associated with a huge fertility decline.
Based on an exploratory approach, our work demonstrates that territorial divides in
fertility levels (1) are influenced by background socioeconomic conditions—resulting in
specific socio-spatial structures at the metropolitan scale—and (2) respond (more or less
rapidly) to long-term urban dynamics, being less sensitive to short-term economic shocks.
These findings corroborate earlier studies focusing on the effect of economic cycles on
fertility patterns and trends. While country/regional fertility rates are sensitive to economic
downturns, the local-scale spatial structure of fertility was demonstrated to be a more sta-
ble attribute of complex socioeconomic systems influenced by medium-term changes that
reflect individual stages of a complete urban cycle. The socioeconomic context underly-
ing such transformations—and the implications for population dynamics at various spatial
scales—should be investigated further adopting comparative approaches based on descrip-
tive, inferential and multivariate analysis of demographic indicators. This will contribute to
a truly multi-dimensional interpretation of metropolitan change and socioeconomic trans-
formations shaping urban complexity in advanced economies.

Compliance with ethical standards 

Conflict of interest  On behalf of all authors, the corresponding author states that there is no conflict of inter-
est.

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