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The CFV Matrix (CRISIL Fundamental and Valuation Matrix) addresses the two important analysis of an investment making process –
Analysis of Fundamentals (addressed through Fundamental Grade) and Analysis of Returns (Valuation Grade) The fundamental
grade is assigned on a five-point scale from grade 5 (indicating Excellent fundamentals) to grade 1 (Poor fundamentals) The
valuation grade is assigned on a five-point scale from grade 5 (indicating strong upside from the current market price (CMP)) to
grade 1 (strong downside from the CMP).
Analyst Disclosure
Each member of the team involved in the preparation of the grading report, hereby affirms that there exists no conflict of interest
that can bias the grading recommendation of the company.
Additional Disclosure
This report has been sponsored by NSE - Investor Protection Fund Trust (NSEIPFT).
Disclaimer:
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Fundamental Grade
business grew by ~4% q-o-q against our expectation of flat revenues. While
4
EBITDA margin improved q-o-q, it was lower than expected. The domestic auto
component segment continued to report loss at the EBITDA level, as in 3
Q1FY12. Depreciation and interest costs were much higher than expected
2
resulting in lower-than-expected PAT. We have revised our FY12 earnings
estimate downwards after factoring in lower EBITDA margin, higher 1
depreciation and interest costs. We maintain FY13 estimates and the
fundamental grade of 4/5. However, given the large acquisition by Dynamatic Poor 1 2 3 4 5
Fundamentals
in April 2011, there will be (a) integration risks, (b) higher susceptibility to
global economic downturn, (c) currency risks, and (d) higher gearing, which Valuation Grade
could impact the fundamental grade.
Downside
Strong
Strong
Upside
Q2FY12 result analysis
• Dynamatic’s Q2FY12 revenues were up 6.7% q-o-q to Rs 3,805 mn due to
strong growth in the hydraulics segment (~17% q-o-q growth, ~21% of KEY STOCK STATISTICS
gross revenues). On a y-o-y basis, revenues were up mainly due to the NIFTY 4851
acquisition of Germany’s Eisenwerk Erla GmbH (Eisenwerk) in April 2011. NSE DYNAMATECH
Face value (Rs per share) 10
• EBITDA margin improved by 188 bps q-o-q to 10.1%. Of this
Shares outstanding (mn) 5.4
improvement, ~160 bps came from a decline in raw material cost as
Market cap (Rs mn)/(US$ mn) 5,897/113
percentage of revenue. Impacted by lower margins of Eisenwerk, EBITDA
Enterprise value (Rs mn) /(US$ mn) 9,063/174
margin continued to be lower y-o-y (~550 bps decline in Q2FY12).
52-week range (Rs) (H/L) 1,594/944
• PAT margin was impacted by an 8.2% q-o-q increase in depreciation and
Beta 1.10
26.7% q-o-q increase in interest cost due to the debt taken for the
Free float (%) 45.4%
Eisenwerk acquisition. While PAT margin increased by 70 bps q-o-q, it
Avg daily volumes (30-days) 1295
declined by 240 bps y-o-y to 1.8%. Adjusted EPS of Rs 12.6 was up
Avg daily value (30-days) (Rs mn) 1.53
75.3% q-o-q and 31.1% y-o-y.
Earnings estimates – revised downwards SHAREHOLDING PATTERN
We have raised FY12 revenue estimate by 5.3% to Rs 14.9 bn after factoring 100%
in higher growth in the auto components business. After factoring in lower 90% 23.1% 21.6% 20.7% 21.2%
80%
profitability in the domestic auto component segment, we have lowered FY12 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
70%
EBITDA margin estimate by ~50 bps to 9.9%. After factoring in higher 21.5% 23.4% 23.9% 23.5%
60%
depreciation and interest costs, we have cut PAT estimate for FY12 by ~32%
50%
to Rs 259 mn (EPS of Rs 47.8). FY13 estimates are unchanged.
40%
We continue to use the discounted cash flow method to value Dynamatic. We 20%
10%
remain positive on the long-term growth in Dynamatic’s cash flows and
0%
maintain the fair value of Rs 1,131 per share.
Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11
KEY FORECAST Promote r FII DII Others
(Rs mn) FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E PERFORMANCE VIS-À-VIS MARKET
Operating income 4,126 4,447 5,016 14,908 15,880 Returns
EBITDA 506 676 821 1,471 1,909 1-m 3-m 6-m 12-m
Adj PAT 18 104 223 259 520 DYNAMATIC -9% 9% -16% 4%
Adj EPS-Rs 3.3 19.2 41.2 47.8 96.1 NIFTY -10% 2% -11% -16%
EPS growth (%) (92.3) 478.3 114.4 15.8 101.2
Dividend yield (%) 0.9 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.5 ANALYTICAL CONTACT
RoCE (%) 9.9 11.9 13.6 15.2 15.8 Chetan Majithia (Head) chetanmajithia@crisil.com
RoE (%) 2.2 9.4 17.7 18.0 30.0 Urmil Shah udshah@crisil.com
PE (x) 152.1 55.8 31.9 22.8 11.3 Suresh Guruprasad sguruprasad@crisil.com
P/BV (x) 2.6 4.9 5.3 3.9 3.0
EV/EBITDA (x) 10.5 12.0 12.5 9.1 6.8 Client servicing desk
+91 22 3342 3561 clientservicing@crisil.com
NM: Not meaningful; CMP: Current market price
Source: Company, CRISIL Research estimate
Q2 revenue growth driven by... ... growth in hydraulics and aerospace segments
(Rs mn) 100%
4,000 15.6% 16.5% 18%
90%
14.4% 16%
3,500 35.7% 38.7% 33.6% 34.8%
80% 42.1% 36.4%
12.4% 16.5% 14%
3,000
14.6% 70%
13.9% 10.1% 12%
2,500 75.5% 73.7%
10% 60% 21.0%
15.9% 19.9% 18.9% 22.6%
2,000 19.0%
8% 50%
1,500 8.2%
6% 40%
1,000 4%
1,044
1,203
1,186
1,137
1,239
1,238
1,389
3,566
3,805
30%
500 2% 57.9% 52.8% 52.1% 53.4% 51.8% 7.8% 9.3%
20% 45.8%
0 0%
10% 20.0% 22.0%
Q2FY10
Q3FY10
Q4FY10
Q1FY11
Q2FY11
Q3FY11
Q4FY11
Q1FY12
Q2FY12
0%
EBIT margin up q-o-q across all segments, PAT margin continued to be impacted by
aerospace being the best performer depreciation and interest costs
40% (Rs mn)
35.8%
32.1% 31.8% 90 7%
35% 6.0%
28.8% 30.6% 80
5.4% 6%
30%
24.1% 70
25% 27.7% 5%
60
3.6%
20% 3.4% 4%
50
15% 40 2.3% 3%
9.1% 1.9%
8.6% 7.6% 7.8% 1.8%
10% 6.9% 30
4.4% 5.1% 6.0% 2%
1.1%
5% 8.6% 20 0.8%
6.3% 1%
5.1% 3.6% 10
0% 2.8% -5.9% 3.0% 28 22 67 45 83 39 68
2.5% 9 41
0.0% 0 0%
-5%
Q2FY10
Q3FY10
Q4FY10
Q1FY11
Q2FY11
Q3FY11
Q4FY11
Q1FY12
Q2FY12
-10%
3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11 2QFY11 3QFY11 4QFY11 Q1FY12 Q2FY12
1,750 150
350
1,500 125
300
1,250
250 100
1,000
200 75
750
150 50
500
100 25
250
50
0 0
0
15-Feb-11
16-May-11
20-Dec-10
16-Mar-11
11-Jul-11
08-Sep-11
19-Nov-10
17-Jan-11
15-Apr-11
13-Jun-11
08-Aug-11
07-Oct-11
08-Nov-11
Jun-11
Nov-11
Feb-09
Feb-10
May-10
Jul-09
Sep-09
Dec-09
Jul-10
Dec-10
Mar-11
Apr-09
Oct-10
Aug-11
Dynamatic NIFTY Total Traded Quantity (RHS) CRISIL Fair Value Dynamatic
-indexed to 100
Source: NSE, CRISIL Research Source: NSE, CRISIL Research
VALUATION
We continue to use the discounted cash flow method to value Dynamatic and
maintain our fair value of Rs 1,131. The stock is currently trading at Rs 1,089.
2,500 25,000
2,000 20,000
1,500 15,000
1,000 10,000
500 5,000
0
0
Mar-07
Mar-10
Aug-07
Jan-08
Jun-08
Nov-08
Sep-09
Aug-10
Jan-11
Jun-11
Nov-11
Apr-09
Jan-08
Jun-08
Nov-08
Jan-11
Jun-11
Nov-11
Mar-07
Sep-09
Mar-10
Aug-07
Apr-09
Aug-10
Dynamatic 15x 18x 21x 24x 27x Dynamatic 8x 10x 12x 14x
100% 25
0% 0
-1 std dev
-100% -25
Mar-07
Mar-10
Aug-07
Jan-08
Jun-08
Nov-08
Sep-09
Aug-10
Jan-11
Jun-11
Nov-11
Apr-09
Jan-08
Nov-08
Jan-11
Nov-11
Jun-08
Jun-11
Mar-07
Aug-07
Sep-09
Mar-10
Aug-10
Apr-09
FINANCIALS
Income statement Balance Sheet
(Rs mn) FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E (Rs mn) FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E
Operating income 4,126 4,447 5,016 14,908 15,880 Liabilities
EBITDA 506 676 821 1,471 1,909 Equity share capital 54 54 54 54 54
EBITDA margin 12.3% 15.2% 16.4% 9.9% 12.0% Reserves 988 1,128 1,289 1,472 1,891
Depreciation 201 225 250 413 441 Minorities - - - - -
EBIT 305 451 571 1,058 1,468 Net worth 1,042 1,182 1,343 1,526 1,945
Interest 282 297 265 679 700 C onvertible debt - - - - -
Operating PBT 23 154 306 379 768 Other debt 2,834 2,526 3,322 7,706 7,456
Other income 48 3 4 12 20 Total debt 2,834 2,526 3,322 7,706 7,456
Exceptional inc/(exp) (98) 1 (6) - - Deferred tax liability (net) 219 240 270 300 330
PBT (28) 158 303 392 788 Total liabilities 4,094 3,948 4,935 9,532 9,730
Tax provision 53 53 87 133 268 Assets
Minority interest - - - - - Net fixed assets 2,225 2,342 2,697 5,284 5,293
PAT (Reported) (80) 105 217 259 520 C apital WIP 310 105 539 539 539
Less: Exceptionals (98) 1 (6) - - Total fixed assets 2,535 2,448 3,236 5,823 5,832
Adjusted PAT 18 104 223 259 520 Investments - - - -
Current assets
Ratios Inventory 662 627 802 2,206 2,262
FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E Sundry debtors 966 920 1,171 2,859 3,045
Growth Loans and advances 207 261 370 522 556
Operating income (%) 14.1 7.8 12.8 197.2 6.5 C ash & bank balance 248 228 155 210 325
EBITDA (%) (7.4) 33.7 21.4 79.2 29.8 Marketable securities - - - - -
Adj PAT (%) (91.4) 478.3 114.4 15.8 101.2 Total current assets 2,083 2,036 2,497 5,796 6,188
Adj EPS (%) (92.3) 478.3 114.4 15.8 101.2 Total current liabilities 943 964 1,240 3,230 3,432
Net current assets 1,140 1,072 1,257 2,566 2,756
Profitability Intangibles/Misc. expenditure 419 429 442 1,142 1,142
EBITDA margin (%) 12.3 15.2 16.4 9.9 12.0 Total assets 4,094 3,948 4,935 9,532 9,730
Adj PAT Margin (%) 0.4 2.3 4.5 1.7 3.3
RoE (%) 2.2 9.4 17.7 18.0 30.0 Cash flow
RoCE (%) 9.9 11.9 13.6 15.2 15.8 (Rs mn) FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E
RoIC (%) 12.3 11.4 12.3 14.0 13.7 Pre-tax profit 71 157 310 392 788
Total tax paid 12 (32) (57) (103) (238)
Valuations Depreciation 201 225 250 413 441
Price-earnings (x) 152.1 55.8 31.9 22.8 11.3 Working capital changes (902) 39 (271) (1,955) (75)
Price-book (x) 2.6 4.9 5.3 3.9 3.0 Net cash from operations (618) 389 233 (1,254) 916
EV/EBITDA (x) 10.5 12.0 12.5 9.1 6.8 Cash from investments
EV/Sales (x) 1.3 1.8 2.1 0.9 0.8 C apital expenditure (974) (138) (1,039) (3,000) (450)
Dividend payout ratio (%) (31.6) 45.2 29.1 25.1 16.7 Investments and others - - - - -
Dividend yield (%) 0.9 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.5 Net cash from investments (974) (138) (1,039) (3,000) (450)
Cash from financing
B/S ratios Equity raised/(repaid) 737 - - - -
Inventory days 68 62 72 60 59 Debt raised/(repaid) 1,192 (307) 796 4,384 (250)
C reditors days 90 88 101 83 85 Dividend (incl. tax) (25) (48) (63) (78) (104)
Debtor days 81 73 81 70 70 Others (incl extraordinaries) (317) 83 1 2 3
Working capital days 57 71 71 42 55 Net cash from financing 1,586 (271) 734 4,308 (351)
Gross asset turnover (x) 1.5 1.3 1.3 2.3 1.7 C hange in cash position (6) (20) (72) 55 115
Net asset turnover (x) 2.2 1.9 2.0 3.7 3.0 C losing cash 248 228 155 210 325
Sales/operating assets (x) 1.9 1.8 1.8 3.3 2.7
C urrent ratio (x) 2.2 2.1 2.0 1.8 1.8 Quarterly financials
Debt-equity (x) 2.7 2.1 2.5 5.1 3.8 (Rs mn) Q2FY11 Q3FY11 Q4FY11 Q1FY12 Q2FY12
Net debt/equity (x) 2.5 1.9 2.4 4.9 3.7 Net Sales 1,239 1,238 1,389 3,566 3,805
Interest coverage 1.1 1.5 2.2 1.6 2.1 C hange (y-o-y) 18.7% 2.9% 17.1% 213.5% 207.1%
EBITDA 193 204 230 293 384
Per share C hange (y-o-y) 49.2% 15.8% 34.3% 85.4% 98.5%
FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E EBITDA margin 15.6% 16.5% 16.5% 8.2% 10.1%
Adj EPS (Rs) 3.3 19.2 41.2 47.8 96.1 PAT 67 45 83 39 68
C EPS 40.4 60.9 87.5 124.0 177.5 Adj PAT 52 48 84 39 68
Book value 192.5 218.3 248.1 281.8 359.1 C hange (y-o-y) 138.2% 19.7% 45.2% 77.0% 31.1%
Dividend (Rs) 4.7 8.8 11.6 12.0 16.0 Adj PAT margin 4.2% 3.9% 6.0% 1.1% 1.8%
Actual o/s shares (mn) 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 Adj EPS 9.6 9.0 15.4 7.2 12.6
Senior Director
Mukesh Agarwal +91 (22) 3342 3035 magarwal@crisil.com
Analytical Contacts
Tarun Bhatia Director, Capital Markets +91 (22) 3342 3226 tbhatia@crisil.com
Prasad Koparkar Head, Industry & Customised Research +91 (22) 3342 3137 pkoparkar@crisil.com
Jiju Vidyadharan Head, Funds & Fixed Income Research +91 (22) 3342 8091 jvidyadharan@crisil.com
Ajay D'Souza Head, Industry Research +91 (22) 3342 3567 adsouza@crisil.com
Ajay Srinivasan Head, Industry Research +91 (22) 3342 3530 ajsrinivasan@crisil.com
Manoj Mohta Head, Customised Research +91 (22) 3342 3554 mmohta@crisil.com
Sudhir Nair Head, Customised Research +91 (22) 3342 3526 snair@crisil.com
Business Development
Vinaya Dongre Head, Industry & Customised Research +91 (22) 33428025 vdongre@crisil.com
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