Predicting Rooftop Photovoltaic Adoption In The
Residential Consumers of PLN Using Agent-Based
Modeling
Fajar Nurrohman Haryadi Muhammad Ali Imron
Research and Technology Assessment Faculty of Forestry
of Power Generation and Energy Universitas Gadja Mada
Department Yogyakarta, Indonesia
PT PLN (Persero) Research Institute https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2371-7795,
Jakarta, Indonesia email: maimron@ugm.ac.id
fajar.haryadi@pln.co.id
Meiri Triani
Research and Technology Assessment
of Power Generation and Energy
Department
PT PLN (Persero) Research Institute
Jakarta, Indonesia
meiri.triani@pln.co.id
Abstract— Indonesia has a massive solar energy potential of
about 207 gigawatts in 2015, unfortunately, the utilization only
0.04 percent. In 2017, the rooftop photovoltaic (PV) in
Indonesia has become a trend adopted by residential
consumers. Increasing the adoption of rooftop PV is one of the
strategies to reach the 23 percent renewable energy mix by
2025. Therefore, to predict the rooftop PV adoptions in the
future, Agent-Based Modeling (ABM) is applied. The purpose
of the model is to understand the impact of decision-making
behavior for the adoption of rooftop PV at the household level
on electricity utilization from PLN. The simulation results are
divided into sensitivity analysis and scenario analysis.The
analysis indicates that the factors inherent in consumer
behavior such as the level of adoption to adopt new
technologies, the number of neighbors who have installed
rooftop PV, lifestyle and intensity of exposure to social media
have influenced the rate of adoption. The simulation results of
several sensitivity analyses show that the higher theability of
households to adopt new technologies and increased the
number of neighbors who have installed rooftop PV have an
impact on the increasinglevel of adoption on rooftop PV in this
community. Meanwhile, the results of the scenario analysis
showed that decreasing the price of rooftop PV per year and
increased government subsidies have an impact on the
increasing adoption rate of rooftop PV.
Keywords—agent-based modeling,adoption,rooftop
photovoltaic
I. INTRODUCTION
According to data on Indonesia's renewable energy
potential in 2015, Indonesia has a huge solar energy potential
of about 207 gigawatts (GW) or 50 percent of the total
renewable energy potential. However, this huge potential has
a small utilization of only 0.04 percent [1].The movement to
increase the use of renewable energy, especially photovoltaic
(PV), is animportant target for Indonesia. The growth of
rooftop PV users at the household level in Indonesia has been
so promising since 2017. Therefore to predict the rooftop PV
adoptions by residential consumers in the future, this study
was carried out to understand the impact of decision-making
behavior for the adoption of rooftop PVat the household level
978-1-7281-5692-7/19/$31.00 ©2019 IEEE
Harry Indrawan
Research and Technology Assessment
of Power Generation and Energy
Department
PT PLN (Persero) Research Institute
Jakarta, Indonesia
harry.indrawan@pln.co.id
and its impact on the electric load for PLN by using Agent-
Based Modeling (ABM).
The ABM in this study which hasn’t been researced
before, focuses on the decision making the process by
households that accommodate rational and irrational
decisions. This modeling is calledADsRooftop. Rational
decisions in this model are outlined in the equation which is
the operation of various factors tested in this model,
including TypList, TypAdopt, SocmedImpact, LStyle,
Finance, NeighImp, PriceImpt, PriceTresh, and SalesImp.
This time ADsRooftop has not been implemented spatially
directly (not yet using case studies in certain locations) but
has considered important factors for decision making such as
neighbor and community influences, prices and social media
[2,3,4,5,6].
II. METHODS
A. Agent-Based Modeling Simulation
ABM is a method that addresses the heterogeneous
characteristics of households [7] and can be used to simulate
many parameters simultaneously, therefore, it is appropriate
with complex human behavior because human decision
processes are dynamic [8, 9]. ABMis generally
implementedto analyzing complex system variables
emergent from interactions among entities [10].
The ABM model description follows the ODD Protocol
(Overview, Design Concepts, Details) [11, 12]. An ODD
protocol is a description of the ABM model that is relatively
easy to understand by various parties because it
accommodates quantitative and qualitative representations
and involves describing existing processes.
In general, there have been various ABM that have
examined the adoption of rooftop PV in various parts of the
world with socioeconomic approaches in Africa [2], the use
of social media [3], neighboring influences [13], the rooftop
PV user community [4], and the dynamics of rooftop PV
adoption [5]. Since our research area related to human
behavior, thus theABM was used as our method.
B. Entities, State Variables and Scales
This model has the main entity in the form of households. decAdapt
?
Each household has a unique character that distinguishes one
another and influences the decision of a household to adopt a 1 stop
rooftop PV or not. Entities, variables, and scales used are 0
shown in Table 1.

TABLE 1. ENTITTIES, VARIABLES AND SCALES Y

Lstyle=10
Variables Description Scales
Entities: Household
TypList Type of electricity consumption. Small: 900VA, N
This value is fixed at the time of Medium: 1300VA to
setup. 2200VA, and Neighbour Update NeighImp
High:>2200VA
TypAdopt The value of the tendency to Scale ranges from 0 Update SalesImp Sales
adopt new technologies. to 10. Approaching Behavior
10 is increasingly Selling Price of
adaptive. The initial PV Rooftop Update PriceImpt
fix value is made Electricity

random.
Update
Socmed Use of social media. scale ranges from 0 to SocmedImpact
Impact This value is fixed at the time of 10.
setup.
Calculate decAdapt
LStyle The tendency to influence Scale ranges from 0 F{PriceImp, TypList,TypAdopt,
lifestyle. The greater the value, to 10. The initial fix SocmedImpact, LStyle,NeighImp}
the greater the possibility to value is made
make decisions based on random.
lifestyle.
Finance The stronger the financial Scale ranges from 0 Affordable
N
condition the higher the to 10. PV?
possibility to adopt.
DecAdpt The decision to adopt or not Scale 0 : no adopt and
scale 1: adopt Y decAdapt =o
NeighImp Neighbor impact Scale ranges from 0
to 10. decAdapt =1
PriceTresh The maximum price that can be Scale ranges from 0
taken, made linear with TypList. to 10. Fig. 1. Flowchart of the household decision-making process for adopting
the higher the kWh the higher rooftop PV.
the threshold
PriceImpt Comparing prices to financial Scale ranges from 0 D. Application
conditions to 10. AdsRooftop model was built using NetLogosoftware
SalesImp This value increases if the Scale ranges from 0 [14], with an interface as in Fig. 2.
frequency of sales visiting the to 10.
house is getting higher. When
setup the value
Entities: Internet Sales
Price Price Scale ranges from 0
to 10.

C. Process Overview
The main agent in this model is the household.
Households have various considerations to determine
whether to adopt a rooftop PV and install it in their homes.
Fig. 1. show the process taken by a household in determining
its decision. The presence of neighbors around the house and
the use of social media has an important role to influence the
adoption of rooftop PV.
Every household will see around it which already has a
rooftop PV, the existence of a neighbor who owns a rooftop
affects the NeighImp dynamics [13].The higher the value of Fig. 2. Display the interface on the rooftop PV model.
SocmedImpact means the more frequent exposure to
information about movement and the use of rooftopPV [3]. The output produced in this model includes:
1. The number of households with TypList 1 who adopted
Lifestyle impact is behavior that accommodates irrational rooftop PV and those who did not.
decisions in humans. Households with a value of LStyle = 10
2. The number of households with TypList 2 who adopted
no longer consider price as a decision to take or adopt
rooftop PV and those who did not.
rooftop PV. Households with an LStyle value <10 will
consider all aspects including the price in their decision 3. The number of households with TypList 3 who adopted
making. PV rooftop and those who did not.
4. PLN load (total number of kWh) used by customers.
5. PV load (total number of kWh) utilized by the customers.
 III. RESULT AND DISCUSSIONS
The simulation results are divided into sensitivity analysis
of model variables and scenario analysis.
A. Sensitivity Analysis
The analysis was conducted using Sensitivity Analysis
One-Factor at a time by simulating one factor by changing
slowly and determining other factors that did not change [15,
16]. This sensitivity analysis is limited to factors that are not
widely known, including the level of adoption to adopt new
technologies, the number of initial adopters of rooftop PV,
lifestyle and social media usage.
1. Ability to Adopt New Technologies
The ability of a household to adopt the information or
new technology is one of the keys in the process of changing.
The results of the analysis of the ABM model show that if
the community is dominated by households that are easily
receptive to new technologies, the number of rooftop PV
users has increased significantly compared to a large number
of households that are resistant to change as in Fig. 3.
PLN use
PV use
adoption rate adoption rate
(a) (b)
Fig. 3. The results of the sensitivity analysis: the effect of the adoption rate
to the number of PLN electricity users (a), and the number of rooftop PV
users (b).
2. Number of Initial Users
The number of rooftop PV initial users has an important
impact on the increasing number of rooftop PV users. In
principle, the more the number of initial users, the more
likely households are to adopt the technology as in Fig. 4.
PLN use
PV use
initial PV users initial PV users
(a) (b)
Fig. 4. The results of the sensitivity analysis: the influence of the number of
initial users of rooftop PV to the number of PLN electricity users (a), and
the number of adopters of rooftop PV users (b).
3. Lifestyle
Lifestyle often has an important role in irrational decision
making. For the sake of getting a lifestyle, often people no
longer view price as a consideration. The lifestyle value in
this model has a range of 0-10, meaning that the greater the
lifestyle value, the greater the probability of a household
being influenced by lifestyle in making decisions for the
adoption of rooftop PV. In this study, lifestyle has been
included in the factors that was tested, but the rules built in
this model, only households that have a lifestyle value of 10
have made irrational decisions. The number of households
that have this character cannot be regulated because in the
model was set it randomly.
However, the results of sensitivity analysis as in Fig. 5,
shows that the lifestyle that was set with random value of up
to 10, does not give many different results from the results of
a random value of 9. Even though lifestyle 10 makes
irrational decision making without considering financial
capability as well as prices and subsidies, but if this group
has a non-adaptive character (low adoption rate) then this
group does not adopt.
PLN use
PV use
lifestyle lifestyle
(a) (b)
Fig. 5. The results of the sensitivity analysis: the influence of lifestyle to the
number of PLN electricity users (a), and the number of adopters of rooftop
PV users (b).
4. Social Media Users
The results of sensitivity analysis using social media
usage parameters show that the intensity of exposure to
social media, especially the internet, can increase the number
of households using rooftop PV. However, the increase did
not occur drastically or jumped with more frequent access to
the internet as in Fig. 6. In this model, the dynamics of
internet use were not simulated. Each household already has
access to social media values that are specified in the
initialization value. The study of the relationship between the
intensity of social media use and the type of PLN customers
needs to be carried out in the future to improve existing
models or incorporate the dynamics of social media use.
not adopting-3
PV use
social media use social media use
(a) (b)
Fig. 6. The results of the sensitivity analysis: the influence of social media
number to the number of PLN electricity users (a), and the number of
adopters of rooftop PV users (b).
B. Scenario Analysis
In this study, the analysis is focused on three main factors,
namely the effect of decreasing price of rooftop PV per year,
the effect of government subsidies onrooftop PVprices and
the effect of selling prices of rooftop PV to PLN.
1. Effect of Price Declines Per Year
The decline in the price of rooftop PV per year has an
impact on the ability of households to adopt rooftop PV, the
price reduction has an impact on the increasing number of
rooftop PV users.
The dynamics of the decline in PLN users during the 5-
year simulation show that with a shift from 2 to 20 percent,
the price reduction has experienced a drastic decline, PLN
load also experienced the same conditions. While the number
of Adopter 2 and Adopter 3, users of rooftop PV and rooftop
PV load experienced a very drastic increase due to falling
prices that occur per year as in Fig. 7. Adopter 2 for
customers 1300VA to 2200VA and adopter 3 for customers>
2200VA.
adopting_2
adopting_3
time (month) time (month)
(a) (b)
PLN_use
PV_use
Time (month) time (month)
(c) (d)
load_PLN
load_PV
time (month) time (month)
(e) (f)
Fig. 7. The effect of various price reduction values to the number of
adopters in each group of PLN electricity users (a) (b), PLN users (c) and
rooftop PV users (d), rooftop PV load(e) and PLN load (f) that is utilized by
customers.
2. Effect of Government Subsidies on Rooftop PV Prices
Dynamics simulation results on the number of adopter 2
and adopter 3, PLN users, rooftop PV users, PLN load and
PV load as (Fig. 8.) showed that the provision of subsidies by
the government makes the number of adopter 2 and adopter 3
have increased. However, the increase in the number of
adopters does not increase as sharply as the reduction in the
price of rooftop PV. PLN users also show a decrease from
year-on-year, and otherwise, customers who use rooftop PV
are increasing, which results in the use of PLN electricity
power which is reduced and the increasing use of rooftop PV
power.
adopting_2
adopting_3
time (month) time (month)
(a) (b)
PLN_use
time (month) time (month)
(c) (d)
load_PV
time (month) time (month)
(e) (f)
Fig. 8. The effect of various values of subsidies to the number of adopters
in each group of PLN electricity users (a) (b), PLN users (c) and rooftop PV
users (d), rooftop PV load (e) and PLN load (f)that is utilized by customers.
3. Effect of Selling Prices of Rooftop PV to PLN
The purchase price of electric power from rooftop PV to
PLN in the form of a percentage of PLN's selling price to
customers shows the effect of an increase in the number of
adopters of PV users when it increases up to 50 percent, but
above 50 percent the number of adopters does not experience
a significant increase surge. An increase in the number of
customers adopting rooftop PV for sale at a percentage below
50 percent shows that the decision to adopt is not merely a
financial problem, but also the existence of other factors. In
this model lifestyle factors, the influence of neighbors and so
on also play an important role in decision making.
IV. CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION
The forecast adoptions of rooftop PV at the household
level was demonstrated by using ABM. The results of the
sensitivity analysis showed that two dominant factors
influence acceleration the process of deployment the use of
rooftop PV in Indonesia is the number of neighbors who
have installed used rooftop PV and the acceptance of the
community to new technologies.
The results of the scenario analysis showed that
decreasing the price of rooftop PV per year and government
subsidies on rooftop PV prices have an impact on the
increasing rate of adoption rooftop PV.
 In the future, it is necessary to recalculate and simulate
the ABM by inserting more variables, compared with the real
data from the people who reside in a region.
ACKNOWLEDGMENT
We express our gratitudeto PT PLN (Persero) as a utility
company that can support this research until finished. Also,
we thank Gadjah Mada University as the partner in this
research.
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