Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Presentation to
Ghulam Ishaq Khan Institute
Mechanical Engineering Dept.
October 26, 2011
PresenterAsimRiaz
Concept of State of
Global Way
Energy Energy
Perspective Forward
Security Sector
Reviewed by:
Mr. Zakauddin Malik, Former MD and Chairman OGDCL
Mr. Ashfaq Mahmood, Ex-Secretary M/o Water & Power
Mr. Muhammad Raziudin, Former MD OGDCL, CEO ARL
OUTCOMES Adequacy
Independence
Maintain degree of
freedom in foreign
policy Diversity Reliability
Sustainable economic Energy
development
Security
Reduced risk to
interruptions
The Economy is not
vulnerable to external
shocks Viability Affordability
• Conventional
•Economic Growth
̵ Oil, Gas, Coal
•Population
• Renewable
•Urbanization
̵ Hydro, Solar, Bio
•Rural Demand Supply
Challenges • Energy Options
Electrification Growth
̵ Indigenous
•Life Style
̵ Imported
•DSM
•Oil & Gas
•Energy Conservation Policy
•Power
Planning
Technology
• Pollution • Realization of
̵ Water Indigenous
̵ Air Resources
Environmental Security
• Climate of Supply
•Import options
Impacts
Change •Vulnerability to
• Global Warming Shocks, interruptions
• Using R.E, Clean • Step up exploration
Coal technology, CCS, Security of supply is
mitigation… simply Energy Security
Ref: Dr. Steven E. Koonin, BP
State of Pakistan’s Energy Sector
• Geological Potential: 282 Trillion Cubic Feet Discovered: 54 TCF
Gas Produced: 26 TCF Remaining: 27.6 TCF Production: 1.45 TCF
• Reserve to Production (R/P) Ratio: 19 Consumption: 1.27 TCF
• Solar Potential is 2.9 million MW, PV, CSP, Solar water heaters…
R.E • Wind potential is 346,000 MW with Gharo Corridor of 55,000 MW
• Small-Hydel potential 4,500 MW, Biomass, Biodiesel, Ethanol…
• TOE stands for Ton of Oil equivalent and
‘m’ Stands for Million so we write mTOE
– 1 TOE = 42 Giga Joules = 7.4 Barrels of Oil
– 1000 Liter Petrol = 0.86 TOE
– 1000 Liter Diesel = 0.98 TOE
– 1 MWh = 0.22 TOE @ 39% efficiency
– 1 TOE = 4.54 MWh@39%, 11.62 MWh@100%
– 1 Million Cubic Feet of Gas = 23.4 TOE
Hyperlink
FY: 2009-10 Million TOE
35
Gas
LPG
Electricity 0.4 mTOE
Oil
30
7.46 mTOE
19.8 mTOE
25
Coal
4.62 Oil
mTOE 20
Total Supply
63.1 mTOE 15
10
Primary Electricity
5 Coal
Natural Gas
30.8 mTOE LPG
0
1995 2000 2005 2010
63.5%
Total Commercial
38.8 mTOE 3.4%
Domestic
1.53 mTOE
21.2%
8.36 mTOE
Transformation Loss: 17.1 mTOE Other Gov.
T&D Losses: 2.47 mTOE 2.1%
Non-Energy Use: 4.13 mTOE
Source: HDIP, EYB 2010
0.786 mTOE
Losses
End Use
-Industry
Final
-Domestic
-Transmission
Secondary -Commercial
-Distribution
-Processing - Agriculture
-Transportation
-Conversion -Storage
Primary -Transform
-Mining
-Drilling
Hyperlink -Harvesting
CNG Sector consumes only 80% Population do not have
8% of Gas but generate access to gas pipeline yet
30% of gas revenues for 20% consume 17% of gas…
Gas utility co. High tariff CNG
8% Domestic
2.3 17%
Where is mTOE 5.13 mTOE
Power Other
our huge 4%
29%
Coal, Hydel, 1.2 mTOE
7.1 mTOE
Renewable
potential?
Gen. Industries
25%
Fertilizer 7.5 mTOE
18%
4.28 mTOE
8.00
6.00
Bcfd
4.00
2.00
Existing Gas Fields
0.00
2010
2011
2012
2013
2015
2016
2017
2018
2020
2014
2019
14
Source: ISGS
GOALS & VISION
► Set goals for country and identify
policy options
► Highest level energy decision makers
OBJECTIVES
► Establish objectives of planning,
IMPLEMENT identify specific questions to be
answered and how planning activities
RECOMMENDATIONS will be harmonized
► Designated stakeholder group
► Carry out recommendations; set
policies, conduct RFPs, establish
tariffs, etc.
► Regulator; market board, finance
ministry, controller general
DATA COLLECTION
AND MANAGEMENT
► Systematically collect and
aggregate data in standard
format
POLICY SETTING ► Designated data entity(ies)
► Consider recommendations
and sign off on resource and
policy actions
► High-level, multi-ministry
organization
STAKEHOLDER
ENGAGEMENT
► Engage federal and provincial
stakeholders; gather input on data,
ANALYSIS approach and assumptions; meet
► Analyze modeling results; develop throughout process
resource and policy ► Designated stakeholder groups
recommendations; follow-up on past MODELING
recommendations
► Answer questions via harmonized
► Senior level energy decision makers
set of modeling activities
► Integrated technical teams; leverage
universities and other existing
expertise
Source: Energy Wing, PC
• Oil Import Bill was 9.99 billion US$ in
Supply
Financial year 2009-10
• Oil Consumption concentrated in the
Total: 20.2 Million Tonnes transport and power sector i.e. 92.4%
Consumption
Liberty 1.6%
HUBCO 9.2%
Gas 29.4%
Rousch 3.4%
FY: 2009-10
GDP average growth in this period was 7% compare to historic average of 5%
MW
25,000 Installed capacity average growth was
20,000
0.21% in these 5 years. 163 MW added 19,257 19,384 19,450 19,420 19,420 19,786
20,922
17,399 17,498 17,799 17,798
14,818 15,658 15,662
15,000
12,969
10,000
5,000
0
95-96 96-97 97-98 98-99 99-00 00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10
60%
Oil
37%
40%
15%
Coal
53% Nuclear
20%
Hydel 30%
0%
Industrial
27%
Commercial
7% Constrained Power Shortage
5000 MW
Source: HDIP, EYB 2010
19,000 Computed (2010-11)
Supplied (2010-11)
18,000 Computed (2009-10)
17,000 Supplied (2009-10)
16,000
Load in MW
15,000
14,000
13,000
12,000
11,000
10,000
9,000
8,000
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Months
Source: PEPCO
45
Demand Price
40 MW Rs/kWh 39.37
35 5,000 1.25 Rental unit is up to 80 times
12,000 11.11 more expensive than Hydel.
30 They say we will have Rental 29.51
Price/kWh
15,000 Up to 39
20 19.42
>15,000 Infinite 16.36
15 10.21 13.2
10 11.11
5 0.51 3.12
0 1.25
MEPCO
• Flat Rate G.C + W.C+
Nuclear
Distribution
QESCO
Margin
• Flat Rate G.C +
Hydel • Water Charges Wheeling
Chargers of HESCO
• Agreement Terms
Imports NTDC
Generation GEPCO
• LetterCost (G.C)
of Intent
Renewable determined
by NEPRA FESCO
End
Source PSO Genco Meter
Use
Circular Debt
Rs. 350 billion
Process Refine NTDC DISCO Subsidy
Rs. 250 billion
Injections
GoP Spending\Exports\Investment GDP
Firms
Rent Payment of
Land, Labor Goods & Goods &
Wages
Capital Services Services
Profits
Households
Leakages
Taxation\Imports\Savings
National
Income
Hyperlink
• Pakistan’s total GHG emissions were 310 million tones of
CO2 equivalent comprising of CO2 54%, CH4 36%, N20 9%
and others 1% in 2008 (Ref: National GHG Inventory)
• Responsible for 0.8 per cent of global GHG emissions
• Ranks 135th in the world in terms of per capita GHG
emissions; Ranks 6th in population (Ref: GoP 2010)
• It ranked 16th out of 170 countries in a Climate Change
Vulnerability Index (Ref: Maplecroft 2010)
• CO2 emissions per unit of energy consumption in
Pakistan are among the lowest in the world
• Reason! Historically, our primary energy supply mix is
about 50% Natural Gas with very low carbon footprint,
11% Hydel and 1.1% nuclear which are Carbon free
• Human Resource Development
• Governance of Energy Sector
– Incompetence, nepotism and corruption
– Too many institutions involved in a activity area
– Lack of National Integrated Energy Plan
– Lack of financial and administrative autonomy
• Regulator’s Role
– Clarity of Role and Autonomy
– Lacks market development approach and monitoring
– Accountability
– Capacity Building
– Tariff Calculation and determination is formula based
• Reforms/Restructuring and Stalled Privatization
– Energy Sector investment need cannot be met by the
public sector alone
– Stalled privatization programs
– Vertical Integration – Problematic; Unbundled, Now?
• Irrational and Inefficient Tariff Structure
– Untargeted Subsidies,
– Notified tariff are below recovery cost
– Failure of Government to pay subsidies on time
– No Protection to Economic Sector i.e. cross subsidy is
given to domestic sector in both Gas and Electricity; Line
losses, delivery Cost and pilferage/nonpayment are very
high in domestic sector compared to Industrial
Pakistan's Energy Security
Global Perspective
Strategic
Stakes
Control of
Economic Sovereignty
Stakes
Corporate
Inter
National Control
Industrialized Interest
Rich, Powerful
Dependent
Security of
Oil & Gas Supply Military
Consumer Power
LDC, Poor, IMF Loan
Weak World Bank Petrodollar
This slide is reviewed by a leading senior Economist of Pakistan Civil Service
• Muslims have 69% of Oil Reserve and 58% of Gas Reserve of the World; produces 40% of
This slide is reviewed by a senior Defense Analyst
world agriculture production yet most of Muslim population live in state of poverty
• We hold key sea trade routes i.e. Straits of Hormuz, Straits of Malacca and Suez Canal
• Global economy rest on foundation of economical supply of plentiful Oil & Gas but Islamic
beliefs strictly prohibits Non-Muslims to have presence in Arab world (esp. K.S.A) Hence,
War on Terrorism is aftermath of unhappy marriage of Muslim Arab and West over Oil; So,
Arab world (esp. K.S.A) will keep producing terrorists, Pakistan suffers from this!
• Osama used Tribal belt, USA used Tribal belt against Russia, History used these fighters
since Alexander. Tribal people are born fighters with harsh & rugged lifestyle. Thus,
solution is militarization of Tribal belt of Pakistan and Afghanistan and use it as
instrument for Muslim World Energy Security. No wealth is yours if you cannot protect it
Energy Rich
Land locked
Central Asia
Sea Route
for China
Pakistan
Om i a
Ab Sta a
kis e
rk Ch i a
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Uk d ia
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d o ria
Al ela
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Ve i ge i
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Bo an
Ca ta n
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Uz uw n
Ne e rb ya
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Sa Q n
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Un d i A tar
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N ab
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M wa
Pa ai n
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• Cheap Electricity: Rs- 1.50 per kWh • Concrete Gravity Dam (Build cost is less)
• Nearby Major Load Centers • Dam is connected to both Road/Rail
• Water Storage worth tens of Billions Rs. • Last Down Stream location for Dam
• Extended irrigation, Flood Control before Indus enter in to Sindh plains
• Restore capacity of Tarbela & Chasma • Largest catchment area, Most diverse
• Location is close to the National Grid water source, Kabul, Haro,Swan, Indus
• Stepped up E&P activities for Oil & Gas by
improving drilling intensity from present i.e. one
well /1376 sq. km
• Have a formula of making the local population as
shareholders in Oil & Gas production areas
• Law & Order situation and terrorism should be
addressed appropriately
• Proper well head gas pricing to attract investor
• Enhanced Oil Recovery, In Fill Drilling, Tight Gas
• R&D projects to promote and accelerate the
exploration activity in unexplored area of the
country in order to fill in future energy gaps
• Prioritize use of gas in the following order:
– 1) Industry 2) CNG* 3) Power generation 4)
Commercial 5) Domestic (using economic principle)
• Eliminate Cross Subsidy in Gas Sale Price i.e.
Domestic and Fertilizer sector
• Expand Oil importing facilities
– Up-gradation of Port Qasim
– Development of Gwadar Port
• Build strategic relationship with crude suppliers
and diversify supply source
• Minimize use of Fuel oil for power generation and
industrial usage as its supplies are expected to be
restricted and with volatile pricing
• Import of energy
– Gas Import
• Pipeline
– IPI Central Route
– IPI Coastal Route
– Qatar Deep Sea Route
– TAPI
• LNG
– Oil Import
– Electricity Import
• Tajkistan
• Iran
– Import of Coal
– Import of LPG
Future Nuclear
Cumulative
The Pak-China link needs
Year Power Plants to to be kept engaged and
(MW)
be added to Grid
strengthened
2011 K-1 and C-1 415 Chinese supply capability
limited to 300 MW size
2011 340 MW (C-2) 755 but larger 1000 MW size
2016 340 MW 1095 possible after 2-3 years
2017 340 MW 1435 NPPs require about 7 years
in construction. (Energy
2019 1000 MW 2345*
Project Cycle)
2021 1000 MW 3345 Enhance exploration and
2022 1000 MW 4345 infrastructure for mining
Source: Integrated Energy Plan, M/o Finance, GoP
• The primary use of coal is power generation worldwide
• Today the world gets more than 38 % of its electricity
from coal, China generate 80 %, India generate 66%,
USA generate 60% and Pakistan generate 0.1%
electricity using coal which is cheap and economical
• In the Asian region 45 % of power is generated from
coal, which is expected to increase to 60 % by 2020
• Advanced technologies for coal gasification, clean coal
technologies, fuel cells and syngas conversion etc are
available but very expensive at present
• Pakistan should focus on conventional open cast
integrated mining i.e. power plant near the mine mouth
• Area of the field: 9000 sq. km
• Distance from Karachi: 380 Km
• Coal seam thickness: 0.2 -22.8m
• Coal seam depth: 114-203m
• Potential Reserves: 175 Billion Tonnes
• Coal category is Lignite having calorific value between
6,200-11,000 BTU/lb, it has high moisture i.e. 47%, ash-
5.75%, low sulphur-1.2% and volatile matter-33%
• There are three aquifers at an average depth of 50m, 120m
(above seam) and more than 200m (below seam) which
needs hydrological solution. Dune sands, silt stone cover,
very high stripping ratio and high moisture content in Thar
Coal make Thar mining and power generation challenging…
• Thar Coal potential can provide Hundred Thousand
(100,000) MW of electricity for more than two (2) centuries
• Equivalent to about 617 Billion Barrels of Oil, Worth 30
trillion US $ @ 50$/Barrel More than 2 × Saudi Oil reserves
• Pricing mechanism must provide minimum 16% return on
investment for Thar Coal Fired Power Plant
• Open Cast mining at the depth of 145 meter with 3 aquifers
will be challenging, So Thar is Medium to Long term option…
• Provide necessary infrastructure and development in Thar
area i.e. water, road & security
• Develop policy for Integrated Coal Mining/Power
• Put professionals of coal field at the helm
24°
Blocks
Drill Holes
Villages
B
Track BLOCK III
Minham
Saleh Jo Tar
Bamnia Bhil Jo Tar
Bhitro
Bamnia Bhil Jo Tar
Singharo Vakrio
Sonalba BLOCK II
Jagirharho
Thae Jo Tar
BLOCK IV
Jinde Jo Tar
Islamkot Varvai
24°
Mula Jo Tar
BLOCK I Khario
Sinhar Vikian
Tilvai
A
Mattu Jo Tar
Dhinkario
Oil Gas Coal Measured
Coal Indicated
Kikari
Coal Inferred
24°
70° 20’ 70° 30’
70° 10’
• Energy Sector is in a critical state
• Energy Efficiency & Demand Side Management to get the priority
• Prepare to live with planned load shedding
• Pay for what you Consume policy must be adopted
• Actual availability of resources for Investment may be much less than
planned mainly due to lack of financing & investment, war on
terrorism and resulting law & order situation due to the
aforementioned war
• It is imperative to realize Wapda plan of Hydroelectric Generation of
26,000 MW by 2025 also include Kalabagh Dam. Resolve all disputes!
• Develop Thar Coal, energy secured for centuries
• Integrated Energy Planning is the need of the hour
• Improve Governance, No Corruption, HRD is the Key…
• Adequacy! Can our energy Supplies to meet
demand on sustainable Basis?
• Diversity! our energy mix is diverse or not at
present? Can it be made to diversify?
• Affordability! Our energy prices are competitive
compared to world or not?
• Viability! Sector Governance and Institutional
viability of our present mix and future mix…
• Reliability! Are there any risks of physical
interruptions in energy supplies?