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Overweight Banking
Robust start for 2023
May-22
Feb-23
Aug-22
Nov-22
Maintain Overweight stance on banking sector with BBRI and BBNI as top pick
Erni Marsella Siahaan, CFA
We recently add BBRI as our top bank picks as we like the bank NIM resilience and strong
+62 21 2557 4800 ext. 919 loan growth from both commercial and subsidized micro loan in 2023F. We maintain our
siahaanerni@ciptadana.com Overweight stance on banking sector, with both of our top pick, BBRI and BBNI
underperforming the JCI by -5% YTD and still have compelling valuation, in our view. Our
earnings growth expectation is 14% YoY for 2023F for banks under our coverage,
http://www.ciptadana.com supported by modest NIM expansion, stable loan growth and reduction in CoC.
Bank Central Asia BBCA Buy 1,069 8,675 9,800 13.0 23.5 20.6 4.3 3.9 19.5 19.9 1.9 2.1
Bank Rakyat Indonesia BBRI Buy 720 4,760 6,100 28.2 12.2 11.3 2.2 2.1 19.0 19.2 5.0 5.7
Bank Mandiri BMRI Buy 478 10,250 11,700 14.1 10.1 9.4 1.9 1.7 19.4 18.8 4.3 4.9
Bank Negara Indonesia BBNI Buy 166 8,900 11,775 32.3 8.0 7.2 1.1 1.0 14.7 14.5 3.3 3.8
Bank Tabungan Negara BBTN Buy 19 1,330 1,975 48.5 5.6 5.2 0.7 0.6 12.1 11.9 3.3 3.5
Bank CIMB Niaga BNGA Buy 31 1,235 1,490 20.6 5.9 5.5 0.6 0.6 11.2 11.2 6.5 6.8
BTPN Syariah BTPS Buy 18 2,310 3,550 53.7 8.4 7.6 1.8 1.5 23.1 21.7 3.5 4.4
Weighted average OW 2,501 16.2 14.5 3.0 2.7 18.9 19.0 3.4 3.9
Source : Bloomberg, Ciptadana Estimates
Please see analyst certification and other important disclosures at the back of this report 2
EQUITY RESEARCH
Banking Sector Update - 03 March 2023
CIPTADANA SEKURITAS ASIA
Please see analyst certification and other important disclosures at the back of this report 3
EQUITY RESEARCH
Banking Sector Update - 03 March 2023
CIPTADANA SEKURITAS ASIA
Please see analyst certification and other important disclosures at the back of this report 4
EQUITY RESEARCH
Banking Sector Update - 03 March 2023
CIPTADANA SEKURITAS ASIA
1.0
0.5
-
Mar-18
Nov-18
Mar-19
Nov-19
Mar-20
Nov-20
Mar-21
Nov-21
Mar-22
Nov-22
Jan-18
Jan-19
Jan-20
Jan-21
Jan-22
Jan-23
May-18
May-19
May-20
May-21
May-22
Jul-18
Sep-18
Jul-19
Sep-19
Jul-20
Sep-20
Jul-21
Sep-21
Jul-22
Sep-22
Source : Companies and Ciptadana Sekuritas Asia
Exhibit 7: Monthly annualized NIM (bank-only, unaudited), banks under our coverage
%
7.0 6.6
6.4 6.5 6.5 6.46.46.4 6.36.5 6.4 6.36.3 6.3 6.46.3
6.1 6.3 6.1 6.2 6.2 6.26.36.26.1 6.26.1
6.1
5.9
6.1 6.06.1 5.96.1 6.05.9 6.1 5.95.9 5.85.8 5.86.05.9 6.06.1
5.8
6.0 5.65.5 5.6
5.4 5.6 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.7 5.7
5.3
5.05.15.1
5.0 4.7
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
-
Nov-18
Nov-19
Nov-20
Nov-21
Nov-22
Jan-18
Mar-18
Jan-19
Mar-19
Jan-20
Mar-20
Jan-21
Mar-21
Jan-22
Mar-22
Jan-23
May-18
May-19
May-20
May-21
May-22
Jul-18
Jul-19
Jul-20
Jul-21
Jul-22
Sep-18
Sep-19
Sep-20
Sep-21
Sep-22
Please see analyst certification and other important disclosures at the back of this report 5
EQUITY RESEARCH
Banking Sector Update - 03 March 2023
CIPTADANA SEKURITAS ASIA
Exhibit 8: Loan growth YoY (bank-only, unaudited), banks under our coverage
%
18.0
16.5
16.0
14.8 15.0 14.6
14.0 14.0
13.5
13.3 13.4 13.3 13.5
12.7 12.9
12.0 12.4
11.9
11.8
11.4
10.5 10.4 10.5 10.7 10.5
10.0 10.2 10.3 10.1
9.89.9 9.6 9.99.49.9 9.7
9.1 8.78.7 9.1
8.0 8.3 8.3
7.8
7.47.17.6 7.6
6.8
6.0 6.0
5.2
4.7 4.7
4.0 3.63.8
3.53.2
2.0 2.4
1.71.7 1.7
1.0
0.6 0.20.3 0.7
-
(0.6)
Mar-18
Nov-18
Mar-19
Nov-19
Mar-20
Nov-20
Mar-21
Nov-21
Mar-22
Nov-22
Jan-18
Jan-19
Jan-20
Jan-21
Jan-22
Jan-23
May-18
May-19
May-20
May-21
May-22
Jul-18
Sep-18
Jul-19
Sep-19
Jul-20
Sep-20
Jul-21
Sep-21
Jul-22
Sep-22
(2.0)
95.0
90.0
85.0 82.8
79.6
80.0 77.9
75.0
70.0
65.0
60.0
Nov-18
Nov-19
Nov-20
Nov-21
Nov-22
Jan-18
Mar-18
Jan-19
Mar-19
Jan-20
Mar-20
Jan-21
Mar-21
Jan-22
Mar-22
Jan-23
May-18
May-19
May-20
May-21
May-22
Sep-18
Sep-19
Sep-20
Sep-21
Sep-22
Jul-18
Jul-19
Jul-20
Jul-21
50.0
45.0
40.0
35.0
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
-
Nov-18
Nov-19
Nov-20
Nov-21
Nov-22
Jan-18
Mar-18
Jan-19
Mar-19
Jan-20
Mar-20
Jan-21
Mar-21
Jan-22
Mar-22
Jan-23
May-18
May-19
May-20
May-21
May-22
Jul-18
Jul-19
Jul-20
Jul-21
Jul-22
Sep-18
Sep-19
Sep-20
Sep-21
Sep-22
Please see analyst certification and other important disclosures at the back of this report 6
EQUITY RESEARCH
Banking Sector Update - 03 March 2023
CIPTADANA SEKURITAS ASIA
EQUITY RESEARCH
EQUITY SALES
BRANCH OFFICES
Please see analyst certification and other important disclosures at the back of this report 7
EQUITY RESEARCH
Banking Sector Update - 03 March 2023
CIPTADANA SEKURITAS ASIA
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