You are on page 1of 52

Banking Sector

Roundup – Q1 FY24

AUGUST 2023
Glossary: Classification of Indian banks used in this document

PSU (12 banks) Private—New (10 banks) Private—Old (8 banks)

Copyright © 2023 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.


Small Finance (3 banks)

1
Q1FY24 results: Banking industry snapshot

Total Deposits Total Net Advances Retail Advances1 Corporate Advances


Business

₹183.5L Crore ₹139.7L Crore ₹44.4L Crore ₹48.8L Crore


14% YoY 17% YoY 20% YoY 15% YoY

Total Income Net interest income Non-Interest Income PAT


Profitability

₹4.9L Crores ₹1.9L Crore ₹65.9K Crore ₹74.0K Crore


38% YoY 27% YoY 60% YoY 69% YoY

Copyright © 2023 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.


ROA CASA Ratio Cost-Income GNPA (%)
Key Ratios

1.4% Increased by 41.02% 48.0% Reduced by 3.7% Reduced by


45 bps YoY 256 bps YoY 325 bps YoY 203 bps YoY

1. Retail loans include home loan, auto loans, personal loans, and other retail loans 2
Summary Snapshot (I/II)
• India's GDP grew at 8.0% in Q1FY24, forecasted to grow between 6 to 6.5% YoY in FY24
− Most agencies have retained their GDP forecast for FY24 compared to previous quarter
• Moderate growth was seen across most high-frequency indicators vs last year
Macro Trends • Slowdown witnessed across exports, imports & two-wheeler consumption; uptick in EV registration &
three-wheeler sales

• Banking sector reported healthy profit of Rs. 0.74 lakh crore with a YoY jump of 69% for Q1FY2024
− Absolute profits for PSU Banks doubled YoY from Rs. 0.15 lakh crore to Rs. 0.34 lakh crore
− Hence, share in overall banking sector net profit of PSU Banks increased YoY from 35% to 47%

Copyright © 2023 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.


• ROA YoY improved during the quarter from 0.9% to 1.4%
− Profitability is driven by growth in interest & fee income, treasury gains & lower provisioning
Key
• Deposit rate and repo rate differential narrowed down as banks raised rates to mobilize deposits
Performance
Indicators • Bank's capitalization remains at comfortable levels providing adequate buffer for future growth
• PSU Banks witness improvement in valuation, outperforming peers between Apr'21 and Jul'23
− However, Private Banks continues to command premium valuation

3
Summary Snapshot (II/II)
• Credit-deposit growth gap narrows as deposit grows stronger
− However, credit growth continues to outpace deposit growth at 17% and 14%, respectively
• Credit: Robust growth achieved across segment. Growth for Corporate (23%) & MSME (27%) segment of
private new banks were stronger compared to industry 15% & 18% respectively
• Deposits: CASA continued under pressure as YoY growth declined to 7% from 11%
Business − Sharp uptick in term deposits YoY growth from 9% to 19% due to deposit repricing
− CD issuances remained elevated over the year as banks continue to issue CDs as credit growth
sustains

• Strong asset quality metrics bolstered confidence in the industry


− Gross NPAs improved across banks with Industry GNPA at a decadal low of 3.7%

Copyright © 2023 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.


− Reduction in NPA levels seen across banks due to write offs & lower slippages
NPA & • Healthy coverage against NPAs across banks
Risk Mgmt. • Bounce Rates remained range bound, near term outlook sanguine

• Digital Banking continues to remain an important agenda for bank


− Banks are adapting digital banking by adding more branches and repositioning it as advisory centers
with a digital-first mindset
Digital • 43% YoY jump witnessed in digital transactions
− Share of UPI transactions volumes also improved from 41% to 46% YoY
4
Macro Indicators

Key Performance Indicators

Business: Advances & Deposits


Banking
sector NPA & Risk Management

overview Digital in Banking

Copyright © 2023 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.


Key Regulatory Measures

Individual Player Performance

5
Macro indicators

India expected to grow at 6 to 6.5% amongst the fastest in the world

FY24 GDP growth forecast2 retained by most


Trend in real GDP growth YoY (%)
agencies or revised upwards
FY22: 9.1% FY23: 7.2%1 Increase/Decrease
from last estimate

JP Morgan 5.5% 0 bps


21.6%
OECD 6.0% 10 bps

13.1% S&P 6.0% 0 bps

9.1%
8.0%

Copyright © 2023 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.


UBS 6.2% 0 bps
5.2% 6.2% 6.1%
4.0% 4.0% 4.5%
Morgan Stanley 6.2% 0 bps

World Bank 6.3% 0 bps

-6.6% Fitch 6.3% 30 bps


FY20

FY21

Q1FY22

Q2FY22

Q3FY22

Q4FY22

Q1FY23

Q2FY23

Q3FY23

Q4FY23

Q1FY24 RBI 6.5% 0 bps

1. GDP growth for FY23 based on provisional estimates; 2: Forecast as of August 10, 2023
Note: Upper-limit has been included where agencies reported forecast range. Latest forecasts considered in case of revision by agency within same month;
Source: Analyst reports, BCG analysis 6
Macro indicators

Moderate growth across most high-frequency indicators vs last year


Slowdown witnessed across exports, imports & 2 wheeler consumption; uptick in EV registrations

Latest Vs. Vs. Latest Vs. Vs.


Month Last year Last month Month Last year Last month
Jun’23 Jun’22 YoY May’23 MoM Jun’23 Jun’22 YoY May’23 MoM
Industry Auto
IIP (Index) 145.0 137.7 5% 140.0 4% PV Sales ('000 Units) 337.9 332.0 2% 341.6 -1%
Power Consumption (‘000 MUs) 4.6 4.5 4% 4.4 6% Tractor Sales ('000 Units) 106.6 107.0 0% 91.3 17%
Petroleum Consumption (MMT) 19.3 18.7 3% 20.0 -4% 2W Sales ('0000 Units) 160.4 170.4 -6% 173.2 -7%
Steel Consumption (MMT) 9.9 8.9 12% 10.3 -4% EV Registrations ('000 Units) 101.8 73.3 39% 157.2 -35%
Cement Production (MT) 36.5 30.1 19% 36.5 0%

Trade & Investment BFSI


Merchandize Exports ($ Bn) 33.0 37.9 -13% 35.0 -6% UPI Value (INR Tn) 14.8 10.1 46% 14.9 -1%

Copyright © 2023 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.


Merchandize Imports ($ Bn) 53.1 63.6 -16% 57.0 -7% NSE & BSE Txns.(INR K C r) 1417.3 1044.0 36% 1402.6 1%
Services Exports ($ Bn) 27.1 24.8 9% 25.0 8% Insurance Premium (INR K Cr) 57.3 49.0 17% 42.0 36%
Services Imports ($ Bn) 15.9 16.1 -1% 14.0 13%

Logistics Sentiment
E-way Bills (Mn) 86.0 74.5 15% 88.0 -2% Manufacturing PMI (Index) 57.8 53.9 7% 58.7 -2%
JNPT Traffic ('000 TEUs) 476.0 493.0 -3% 528.0 -10% Services PMI (Index) 58.5 59.2 -1% 61.2 -4%
Rail Freight (Mn Tons) 134.0 132.0 2% 126.0 6% Current Situation Index 89 76 17% 87 2%
Air Freight (K Tons) 270.1 271.1 0% 269.0 0% Future Expectations Index 116 113 3% 116 0%

Note: EV registrations incl. E-bus, E-car, electric 3W, electric 2W, electric 3W cargo sales, others
Source: DBIE, NPCI, IRDAI, AMFI, GIC, Life Insurance Council of India BCG analysis 7
Macro indicators

Most BFSI indicators showcased robust growth over June 2022


India is performing well on multiple economic and policy parameters, albeit some concerns around inflation persist

UPI Mutual funds AUM (INR Tn)


UPI value & volume rose 47% and 60% YoY in Jun’23 respectively Mutual funds AUM witnessed a tremendous growth of 24% YoY
5 Value (INR Tn) Volumes (INR Bn)
44.0
14.8 45
10.1
10 40
35.6
5 9.4
0 5.9 0
Jan-22 Mar-22 Jun-22 Sep-22 Dec-22 Mar-23 Apr-23 Jun-23 Jan-22 Mar-22 Jun-22 Sep-22 Dec-22 Mar-23 Apr-23 Jun-23

Copyright © 2023 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.


Aggregate deposits & credit (INR Tn) Insurance premium (INR '000 Cr.)
Deposits and Credit grew 14% and 17% YoY in Jun’23 respectively Life Insurance premium rose 16% YoY in Jun’23
Aggregate Deposits Aggregate Credit Life Insurance Premium Non Life Insurance Premium
191
167
49 57
150
144
100 123
Jan-22 Mar-22 Jun-22 Sep-22 Dec-22 Mar-23 Apr-23 Jun-23
Jan-22 Mar-23 Jun-22 Sept-22 Dec-22 Mar-23 Apr-23 Jun-23
1.Mutual funds Assets Under Management (AUM) represented as recorded at end of every month shown. Mutual Funds AUM include investments from individuals (50.5%) & institutions
(49.5%); institutions include domestic and foreign institutions and banks; 2. Aggregate deposits & credit latest available for May'23 3.Non-Life Insurance includes Fire, Marine, Motor,
Engineering, Health, Cop Insurance, Credit Guarantee, Aviation, Personnel accident and Miscellaneous
Source: DBIE, NPCI, IRDAI, AMFI, GIC, Life Insurance Council of India BCG analysis 8
Macro indicators

Three-wheeler sales witnessed robust growth of 28% YoY in June 2023


Passenger vehicles and tractor sales were stagnant, drop recorded in two wheeler yoy sales in June 2023

Passenger vehicles sales (’000 units) Two-wheeler sales (’0000 units)


Passenger vehicle sales up 2% YoY 2W sales registered as decline of 6% YoY in Jun'23

400 200 170 160


332.0 338.0
350
300 100

250
200 0
Jan-22 Mar-22 Jun-22 Sep-22 Dec-22 Mar-23 Apr-23 Jun-23 Jan-22 Mar-22 Jun-22 Sep-22 Dec-22 Mar-23 Apr-23 June-23

Copyright © 2023 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.


Tractor sales (’000 units) Three-wheeler sales (’000 units)
Tractor sales rebound to June'22 levels post decline Uptick is due to lower base effect & positive market sentiment

150 100 78
107 107
61
100
50
50

0 0
Jan-22 Mar-22 Jun-22 Sep-22 Dec-22 Mar-23 Apr-23 June-23 Jan-22 Mar-22 Jun-22 Sep-22 Dec-22 Mar-23 Apr-23 June-23

Figures represent wholesale numbers (including exports)


1.BMW, Mercedes and Volvo Auto data is not available
Source: SIAM, CMIE, TMA, Press search, BCG analysis 9
Macro Indicators

Key Performance Indicators

Business: Advances & Deposits


Banking
sector NPA & Risk Management

overview Digital in Banking

Copyright © 2023 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.


Key Regulatory Measures

Individual Player Performance

10
Key Performance Indicators

69% YoY jump in absolute profits fueled by higher NII & treasury gains
Confidence in Asset Quality allowed banks to scale back on provisioning

Values for
Q1FY24

INR Bn
4,254
Substantial Mark to market gains
bolstered other income growth
63%
Share of PSBs in banking sector
PSBs 58% PAT increased from ~35% to ~47%
660 2,528 YoY
36% 51%
1,869 53%
48%
Private 1% 1% 53%

Copyright © 2023 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.


-2,385 45% 1,316
53% 2% 65%
-1,212 52% 35% 0% 52% 740
40% 46%
46% -294 1%
SFBs 46% -282 46%
47% 52%
1% 1% 1% 1% 1%

Interest Interest NII Other Total income Opex PPOP Credit Cost Taxes Net profit
earned expense Income (Net)

Growth
35% 42% 27% 60% 34% 25% 43% -12% 87% 69%
YoY1
1. YoY growth Q1FY24 vs. Q1FY23
Analysis has been made based on 33 Banks: 12 PSBs, 10 Private-New, 8 Private-Old Banks and 3 Small Finance Banks 11
Source: Capitaline; Press releases; BCG analysis
Key Performance Indicators

Industry profitability improved during the quarter


Driven by growth in interest & fee income, treasury gains and lower provisioning

RoA Tree PSBs Private New Private Old SFBs Industry

Particulars1 UoM Q1FY24 Q1FY23 Q1FY24 Q1FY23 Q1FY24 Q1FY23 Q1FY24 Q1FY23 Q1FY24 Q1FY23

Net interest Margin (%) 2.9 2.6 4.4 4.0 3.5 3.2 7.7 7.9 3.5 3.1

Fee + Other Income (%) 1.0 0.6 1.6 1.4 1.2 0.8 1.8 1.5 1.2 0.9

Operating expenses (%) 1.9 1.7 2.8 2.5 2.6 2.3 5.9 5.9 2.3 2.0

Copyright © 2023 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.


Pre-Provision Profit2 (%) 2.0 1.5 3.3 2.8 2.1 1.7 3.7 3.5 2.4 1.9

Credit costs (%) 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.8 0.5 0.7

Tax (%) 0.4 0.2 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.3

Return on Assets (%) 1.0 0.5 2.0 1.7 1.3 0.8 2.5 2.1 1.4 0.9

1. All the above #s are as a % of average assets; 2. Pre-provision profit may not tally due to rounding off differences
Analysis has been made based on 33 Banks: 12 PSBs, 10 Private-New, 8 Private-Old Banks and 3 Small Finance Banks
Source: Capitaline, Press releases, BCG analysis 12
Key Performance Indicators

Yield: Private players better positioned to pass through rate hikes


Consequently, yields generated by Private Banks fared better than that by PSU banks

~70% of industry loans are floating rate based; of which 50% are EBLR-based, wherein rate transmission is immediate

Fixed Rate Loans 30% 25%


46%
57%

For Pvt Banks, higher


share of EBLR-based loans

Copyright © 2023 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.


73%
Floating Rate Loans 70%
50% helped in better
36% transmission of repo rate

3% 4% 1%
2% 2% 1%
Industry Industry PSU Banks Pvt Banks

MCLR EBLR Base Rate Others

Note: MCLR: Marginal Cost of funds-based Lending Rate, EBLR: External Benchmark-based Lending Rate. Data as of June 2023
Source: RBI; BCG analysis 13
Key Performance Indicators

TD and Repo rate differential narrowed down as banks


pass on interest rate hikes to mobilize deposits
Increase in rates
Lending and Deposit rate (%) since June 2022

9.2 9.3 9.2 160 Repo Rate


9.0
8.6 8.7
8.9 8.9 bps
8.2 8.3
7.9 Consecutive repo rate pauses
expected to stabilize TD rate hikes
Weighted Average
6.5 6.5 6.5 129 Lending Rate

Copyright © 2023 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.


6.3 6.3
5.9 5.9 5.9 bps (Industry)
5.4 5.4 6.3
6.0 6.2
5.1 5.8 5.9
5.5 5.6
4.9 5.3 5.4
5.2
Weighted Average
Jun’22 Jul’22 Aug’22 Sept’22 Oct’22 Nov’22 Dec’22 Jan’23 Feb’23 Mar’23 Jun’23 121 Term Deposit
bps Rates (Industry)
Average Lending Rates Average Deposit Rates Repo Rate

Note: WALR is Weighted Average Lending Rates on fresh loans and WATDR is Weighted Average Domestic Term Deposit Rates on outstanding
deposits; All figures at an aggregate industry level
Source: RBI; BCG analysis 14
Key Performance Indicators

Banks scaled back on provisioning owing to confidence in books, Opex gained


traction and elevates to a five-year high

Credit costs by bank category Opex by bank category

% %
3 3 2.8
2.5 2.4
2.3
2.1
2 2
1.5 1.9
1.8 1.8

Copyright © 2023 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.


1.7 1.7
1.3 0.9
1 0.8 1
0.7 0.6
0.9
0.5 0.5 0.5
0 0
FY21 FY22 Q1FY23 FY23 Q1FY24 FY21 FY22 Q1FY23 FY23 Q1FY24

PSBs Private

Analysis has been made based on 33 Banks: 12 PSBs, 10 Private-New, 8 Private-Old Banks and 3 Small Finance Banks
Source: RBI; BCG analysis 15
Key Performance Indicators

Industry ROA and ROE maintain an upward trajectory


Absolute profits for PSBs doubled in Q1FY24; Pvt Banks share in industry net profit down to 52% vs. 64% YoY

Return on Assets1 by bank category Return on Equity2 by bank category

(%)
2.5 19.8
2.5 20 18.5
2.3
2.1 16.7 16.8
2.1 2.0 16.3
2.0 16.2 14.0
15 13.2 15.8
1.6 1.6 14.1 13.7 15.7
1.7 12.4 13.1
1.5 1.4
1.5 10.5 10.5
1.2 10.9 12.4
1.1 1.3 10 9.0

Copyright © 2023 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.


7.7 8.8 10.6
0.9 0.9 1.1
1.0 1.0 7.5 7.8
0.8 0.8
0.6 0.7 5 4.6
0.5 0.6 0.5
0.5
0.3
0.0 0
FY21 FY22 Q1FY23 FY23 Q1FY24 FY21 FY22 Q1FY23 FY23 Q1FY24

PSBs Private New Private Old SFB Industry

1Return on Assets is calculated as net profit/average assets 2Return on Equity is calculated as net profit/average shareholders' fund
Analysis has been made based on 33 Banks: 12 PSBs, 10 Private-New, 8 Private-Old Banks and 3 Small Finance Banks
Source: RBI; Capitaline; Press releases; BCG analysis 16
Key Performance Indicators

Banks capitalization remain at comfortable levels

Capital to Risk-weighted assets ratio (%) (Jun '23)

26 27

21 20 22 21
20 19
18 18 18 17 18 17
17 17 17 16 16 17 16 16 16 17 16 16 16 17
15 14 15 14
13 Minimum
requirement
9%

Copyright © 2023 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.


Bank of India

Federal
RBL
Kotak Mah.

Bandhan

Union
IDBI

ICICI

South Ind.

Ujjivan
HDFC

PNB

SBI

DCB
Indian

BOB

IOB

J&K

Dhanlaxmi

AU
IndusInd

Axis

PSB

Equitas
Yes

UCO
Bank of Maha

CSB
Central Bank

Karnataka
IDFC First

Canara

Karur Vysya
Credit
Growth 17 20 8 16 18 7 22 22 26 21 26 15 14 27 13 11 20 18 14 16 15 23 31 16 19 14 5 17 21 15 34 34 29
(%)
Private New banks PSU banks Private Old banks SFB

Source: Capitaline, Investor presentation, BCG Analysis 17


Key Performance Indicators

PSU Banks outperformed peers and overall market since Apr'21

Index (weighted by market cap.) for PSBs, Pvt Banks and NBFCs
PSU Index Pvt Banks Index
200

149.3
150

110.8

100

Copyright © 2023 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.


50
Apr’21 Jun’21 Sept’21 Dec’21 Mar’22 Jun’22 Sept’22 Dec’22 Mar’23 May’23 Jul’23

Change in Market Cap (%)


PSU Banks Private Banks Sensex
Apr'21 to Jul'23 49.3% 10.8% 32.9%

Note: PSBs index includes 12 PSBs; Private Bank index includes 10 Private-New and 9 Private-Old Banks. Index weighted as per market capitalization of banks
Index period from April 1st, 2021 to July 31th , 2023
Source: Capital IQ 18
Key Performance Indicators

Private Banks continues to command premium valuation vs. PSBs


Select Banks
Price to book ratio (As on 30th June 2023)
PSU Banks Private New Banks Private Old Banks

IOB 2.1 46 CSB Bank 1.6 5


Kotak Mah. Bank 4.4 367

SBI 1.7 511 Federal Bank 1.2 27


HDFC Bank 3.4 952

P&SB 1.5 22 DCB Bank 0.9 4


ICICI Bank 3.3 654

UCO Bank 1.4 33 South Ind.Bank 0.6 4


Axis Bank 2.4 304
BoM 1.4 19
Small Finance Banks

Copyright © 2023 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.


IndusInd Bank 2.0 107
BoB 1.0 98
AU 4.6 50
IDBI Bank 1.6 59
Central Bank 1.0 25

Yes Bank 1.2 47 Equitas 1.9 10


Indian Bank 0.9 36

Canara Bank 0.8 55 RBL 0.8 11 Ujjivan 1.9 7

Market Cap (INR in '000 crores) (as on 30th June 2023)

Source: Capitaline; BCG analysis 19


Key Performance Indicators

PSU Banks valuations soared over June 2022

Price/Book for PSU Banks


2.1 Jun 22 Jun 23

1.7
1.6
1.5 1.5
1.4 1.4

1.0 1.0
0.9 0.9 0.8
0.7 0.7
0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6
0.5
0.4 0.4 0.4

Copyright © 2023 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.


UCO

Indian
Central

BoI
IOB

BoB

Canara
SBI

BoM

PNB
P&SB

Union
Market Cap1
46 511 22 19 33 98 25 36 55 49 57 30
(Rs'000 Cr)
Return since
49% 23% 126% 86% 150% 96% 72% 96% 67% 111% 78% 66%
Jun'22 (%)2

Note: 1.Market Cap as on Jun 30, 2023, 2.Return refer to YoY change in Market Cap
Source: Capitaline, BCG Analysis 20
Key Performance Indicators

Mixed performance in valuation for Pvt. Banks, however, they continue to


command premium valuation vs PSU Banks
Price/Book for Private Banks
4.6 Jun 22 Jun 23
4.4

3.4 3.3
3.1
2.9
2.4 2.4
2.1 2.0 2.0
1.7 1.6 1.6 1.5
1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2
0.9 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7
0.6 0.6
0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5

Copyright © 2023 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.


0.3 0.3 0.3
Axis

Yes

Karnataka
IndusInd

DCB
CSB

CUB
Kotak

HDFC

Bandhan

Dhanlaxmi
Federal

SIB
KVB
IDFC

J&K
IDBI

RBL
ICICI

Market Cap1
367 952 654 304 53 39 107 5 59 9 27 47 10 4 11 6 6 4 0.4
(Rs'000 Cr)
Return since
11% 27% 33% 56% 169% -8% 73% 47% 80% -4% 41% 47% 179% 65% 118% 192% 139% 154% 48%
Jun'22 (%)2

Note: 1.Market Cap as on Jun 30, 2023, 2.Return refer to YoY change in Market Cap
Source: Capitaline, BCG Analysis 21
Key Performance Indicators

SFB & select Private old banks valuations remained high over June 2022

Price/Book for Private-Old and Small Finance Banks


5.0 Jun 22 Jun 23
4.6

1.9 1.9
1.6 1.5
1.3 1.3 1.2
1.2 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.2
0.9 0.8
0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6
0.5 0.4 0.5

Copyright © 2023 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.


0.3 0.3 0.3

Karnataka
Suryoday

DCB
Equitas

Ujjivan

CSB

CUB

Federal

SIB

Dhanlaxmi
KVB

J&K
AU SFB

Market Cap1
50 10 7 5 9 27 2 10 4 6 6 4 0.4
(Rs'000 Cr)
Return since
35% 103% 185% 47% -4% 41% 122% 179% 65% 192% 139% 154% 48%
Jun'22 (%)2

Note: 1.Market Cap as on Jun 30, 2023, 2.Return refer to YoY change in Market Cap
Source: Capitaline, BCG Analysis 22
Key Performance Indicators

Merger of HDFC Bank Ltd. & HDFC Ltd. executed on July 1, 2023

Proforma merged HDFC Bank's financials (30 June) Post-merger key updates

Loan Book1 (E) Total Deposits (E)


(Rs. billion) (Rs. billion)

20,651 • Market share: Post merger estimated credit


23,204 share ~15% & deposits share ~11%
2% 7% from
5% 5%
27% from HDFC Ltd.
22% HDFC Ltd. • Loan Book: Mortgage mix of ~35% post merger
vs. 11% pre merger
17%

Copyright © 2023 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.


93% • Impact on NIM: Merged entity will have to
28%
meet additional ~Rs. 1,200 billion CRR & SLR
requirements (for HDFC Ltd.) which will
28%
impact NIM in near term

HDFC’s non-individual loans


• Impact of expanded balance sheet: Additional
HDFC’s individual loans
HDFC’s non-retail deposits
loans to priority sector, leading to challenge
HDFC’s retail deposits
HDFC Bank’s wholesale loans
HDFC Bank’s deposit
to raise more deposit in near term
HDFC Bank’s retail loans
HDFC Bank’s commercial/rural banking loans

1. Proforma merged loans are before adjustments for IBPC / BRDS


Source: HDFC Bank press release, Analyst Reports 23
Key Performance Indicators

Key moves from HDFC | Implications for industry

Driving greater cross-sell from group Aggressive growth plans to deepen presence

Presence in cities Presence in villages


(in lakhs)
HDFC Ltd. customers which 6,000 2.25
~70% don’t have HDFC as primary 4,080 1.65
bank

HL penetration in retail
2% FY 23 FY 24E
customers from HDFC Ltd. FY 23 FY 24E

Copyright © 2023 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.


FY23 branch addition; Target MSME share in
4% Insurance penetration in Also expected annual semi-urban and rural
retail customers from group ~1,500 20-25%
addition next few year areas

Source: Analyst Reports, Press Releases

24
Macro Indicators

Key Performance Indicators

Business: Advances & Deposits


Banking
sector NPA & Risk Management

overview Digital in Banking

Copyright © 2023 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.


Key Regulatory Measures

Individual Player Performance

25
Business: Advances & Deposits

Credit-deposit growth gap narrows as deposits grow stronger


Deposit growth driven by incremental rise in TD & CD issuances; Credit growth remains strong despite muted offtake

Credit and deposit growth rate (%)


Credit growth1 Deposit growth

Growth % YoY

20 18.2
16.0 16.7
14.8
15 13.0
15.6 11.5
14.6 10.3 10.4 10.4 13.6
10 7.9 11.4
7.2 7.5

Copyright © 2023 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.


9.5 10.1
8.8 5.3
5 7.2
6.0 6.2
3.2
0
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 Q1FY24

CD
79% 79% 78% 78% 73% 74% 75% 74% 70% 69% 77% 76%
Ratio2

1. Credit growth are Net Advances growth. 2.Credit-Deposit Ratio is calculated as Net Advances/Total Deposits
Analysis has been made based on 33 Banks: 12 PSBs, 10 Private-New, 8 Private-Old Banks and 3 Small Finance Banks
Source: RBI; Capitaline; Press releases; BCG analysis 26
Business: Advances & Deposits

Robust growth achieved across segments


Growth for Corporate & MSME segment of private new banks was stronger compared to the industry

Split of Gross Domestic Loan Book ('000 Cr)

Industry PSU Banks YoY Private New YoY Private Old YoY SFB YoY
YoY Growth
Growth Growth Growth Growth
17% 14% 21% 16% 31%

12,357 14,364 Q1FY23 Q1FY24 7,636 8,683 4,156 5,043 471 547 89 116

30% 31% 19% 20% 25% 26% 19% 29% 30% 17%
39% 39% 21% 33% 34% 36%

14% 14% 14% 3%


12% 11% 14% 15% 15% 15% 18% 4% 61%
7% 6% 17%

Copyright © 2023 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.


14% 13% 13%
16% 16% 16% 18%
18% 19% 27% 25% 24% 10% 42% 39% 22%

43% 42% 11% 14% 47% 46% 11%


36% 36% 20% 18%
31% 32%
23% 23% 35%

Q1 FY23 Q1 FY24 Q1 FY23 Q1 FY24 Q1 FY23 Q1 FY24 Q1 FY23 Q1 FY24 Q1 FY23 Q1 FY24
X

Retail Agri MSME Corporate + Others

Note: MSME includes SME, LAP, Business Banking and CV/CE loans; Agri includes Rural Loans, Kisan gold card loans and Tractor Loans; Others include Micro
finance, PSL Inorganic + SRs and Loan Converted into Equity and credit substitutes
Analysis has been made based on 33 Banks: 12 PSBs, 10 Private-New, 8 Private-Old Banks and 3 Small Finance Banks 27
Source: RBI; Capitaline; Press releases; BCG analysis
Business: Advances & Deposits

Slight softness in credit growth; while deposits continue to inch up


PSBs Private New Private Old SFB Industry

Credit growth by bank category Deposits growth by bank category


Growth % yoy Growth % yoy
40 60
34
31 37 38
29 42
30 26 27 19 40 34
19 18 32
17
17 18 17
16 18 17 15 16 18
10 13 16 17 20
15
10 14 18 12 14
12 10 10
5 11 14
9 11
8 8

Copyright © 2023 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.


3 8 9 9 11
2 6 8
0 0
FY21 FY22 Q1FY23 FY23 Q1FY24 FY21 FY22 Q1FY23 FY23 Q1FY24

PSBs 62% 61% 61% 61% 61% PSBs 67% 66% 66% 65% 65%

Market share (%)


Market share (%)

PVT-N 34% 35% 34% 35% 35% PVT-N 28% 29% 30% 31% 31%

PVT-O 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% PVT-O 4% 4% 4% 4% 4%

SFBs 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% SFBs 0% 1% 1% 1% 1%

Analysis has been made based on 33 Banks: 12 PSBs, 10 Private-New, 8 Private-Old Banks and 3 Small Finance Banks 28
Source: RBI; Capitaline; Press releases; BCG analysis
Business: Advances & Deposits

CASA continued under pressure as YoY growth declined to 7% from 11%


Term deposits continued to attract liquidity due to deposit repricing
PSBs Private New Private Old SFB Industry

CASA growth YoY by bank category (%) Term Deposits growth YoY by bank category (%)
Growth % yoy Growth % yoy
140 132 60
112 47.4
39.7
100 25 94 40
19 28 25.3
20 16 12 21.7
10 24.3 18.0 24.0
20 18 12 11 11
12 11 6 11.4 10.8 16.9
15 7 20 15.0 18.5
4 5.4 16.1
0 8 7 5 7.9 9.0
4 4.3 15.5
-2 6.8 7.0 13.5

Copyright © 2023 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.


-20 0 2.2 5.0
3.1 2.0
FY21 FY22 Q1FY23 FY23 Q1FY24
FY21 FY22 Q1FY23 FY23 Q1FY24

PSBs 66% 64% 64% 63% 63% PSBs 69% 67% 67% 65% 65%

Market share (%)


Market share (%)

PVT-N 30% 32% 32% 34% 33% PVT-N 27% 28% 29% 30% 30%

PVT-O 3% 3% 4% 3% 3% PVT-O 4% 4% 4% 4% 4%

SFBs 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% SFBs 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%

Analysis has been made based on 33 Banks: 12 PSBs, 10 Private-New, 8 Private-Old Banks and 3 Small Finance Banks
Source: RBI; Capitaline; Press releases; BCG analysis 29
Business: Advances & Deposits

Banks continued issuing CDs as credit growth


sustains amid high rates
Certificate of Deposits outstanding (Rs '000 crore)
Banks may prefer to offer higher
interest rates on CDs for shorter
400
periods of time in order to mobilize
resources.
305 302
294 312
300
249 280 This contrasts with offering higher
201 241 interest rates on fixed deposits for
200
longer periods of time.

Copyright © 2023 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.


128

100 86
72
62 64 57
Banks expect the rate-setting
monetary policy committee to begin
reducing the repo rate starting in
Sep- Dec- Mar- Jun- Sep- Dec- Mar- Jun- Sep- Dec- Mar- 23- the fourth quarter of FY24.
20 20 21 21 21 21 22 22 22 22 23 Jun
CD as %
of total 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.3 1.4
assets

Source: RBI, Prime Database 30


Macro Indicators

Key Performance Indicators

Business: Advances & Deposits


Banking
sector NPA & Risk Management

overview Digital in Banking

Copyright © 2023 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.


Key Regulatory Measures

Individual Player Performance

31
NPA and Risk Management

Gross Non-Performing assets (%)


%

15

10.3%
Indian Banking 10 9.1%

Industry GNPA 8.5%


7.4%
7.3% 6.9%

at a decadal 5
5.5%

5.4%
5.8%
5.0%
5.9%
4.9%
5.7%
4.8%
5.0% 4.6%

low 4.1% 3.9% 3.7%

Copyright © 2023 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.


4.7% 3.7% 3.5% 3.5%
3.7% 3.4%
1.9% 2.2% 2.2%
2.1% 2.1%
0
FY20 FY21 FY22 Q1FY23 FY23 Q1FY24

PSBs Private New Private Old SFB Industry

Analysis has been made based on 33 Banks: 12 PSBs, 10 Private-New, 8 Private-Old Banks and 3 Small
Finance BanksSource: RBI; Capitaline; Press releases; BCG analysis 32
NPA and Risk Management

Reduction in NPAs levels seen across banks & bank categories (1/2)
Driven primarily by write-offs and lower slippages
Select Banks
Gross Non-Performing assets (%)

19.9
Jun’22 Jun’23

14.9
13.5
11.3 11.3
10.2
9.3 9.1
7.7 8.1
7.3 6.8 7.3 7.1 7.4 7.0
6.8 6.7 6.3

Copyright © 2023 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.


5.1 5.0 5.5 5.2
4.1 4.5
3.2 3.4 2.8 2.8 2.2 3.5 3.9 3.7
2.4 2.8 2.3
2.0 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.3
1.2
Yes

UCO
Axis

HDFC

Indian
Bandhan

Kotak

Canara

BOM
IDBI

ICICI
RBL

BoB
IndusInd

BOI

IOB
PNB

SBI
P&SB
Central

Union
Private New Banks PSU Banks

Source: Investor Presentation, Analyst Report BCG Analysis 33


NPA and Risk Management

Reduction in NPAs levels seen across banks & bank categories (2/2)
Select Banks
Gross Non-Performing assets (%)

9.1
Jun’22 Jun’23

6.4 6.5
5.8 5.9
5.2 5.1 5.2

4.2 4.0 4.1


3.7
3.3

Copyright © 2023 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.


2.7 2.6 2.8
2.4
2.0 1.8 2.0 1.8
1.3

Karnataka

Ujjivan

Equitas
CSB

AU
Federal
Dhanlaxmi

KVB

DCB
J&K

SIB

Private Old Banks Small Fin. Banks

Source: Investor Presentation, Analyst Report BCG Analysis 34


NPA and Risk Management

Healthy coverage against NPAs across banks


Select Banks
Provision coverage ratio1 (%) (Jun '23)
Private New Banks PSU Banks Private Old Banks Small Fin.
Banks
98
92 90 88
Q1FY24: 83
77% 80 78 81 80 79 80 77
75 77 76 75 74 75
71 70 69 68 73 71 71 71
66 69
65 64 62
Q1FY23:
58
73%
48

Copyright © 2023 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.


Ujjivan
UCO
Indian

Equitas
BOM

Central
IOB

CSB
Canara

AU
BOI
PNB
BOB

SBI
Union

PSB

South Ind.
Federal
RBL

Dhanlaxmi

Karnataka
Bandhan
IndusInd
Kotak Mah.
ICICI

Yes

Karur Vysya

DCB
Axis

IDFC First

J&K
IDBI

HDFC

YoY
Change -323 316 233 539 205 -141 -289 -566 609 -2359 1260 1231 578 986 258 -147 1105 -23 635 -673 437 -1074 2074 801 798 600 543 1255 630 1470 -61 -260 933
(bps)

1. All the above PCR% are excluding Technical write-offs and have been calculated as (GNPA-NNPA)/GNP
Source: Capitaline, Investor presentation, Press release, BCG Analysis 35
NPA and Risk Management

Bounce rate flatten out post a drastic fall from pre covid levels
Despite inflationary pressures, bounce rates at a three-year low, showing that the asset quality of banks remains
strong

Bounce rates remained stable in Q1FY24

Bounce rate, volume (%) Bounce rate, value (%)

45.4

38.1

Copyright © 2023 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.


31.2
32.8 29.3 29.4 29.3
27.5
24.8
22.5 21.6 21.3

Jun-20 Mar-21 Oct-21 Sep-22 Q1FY24 Jun-20 Jan-21 Jan-22 Mar-23 Q1FY24

Note: Bounce rate is for recurring payment transactions on NACH platform (e.g.: Insurance premium, EMIs, etc.)
Source: NPCI, BCG Analysis 36
Macro Indicators

Key Performance Indicators

Business: Advances & Deposits


Banking
sector NPA & Risk Management

overview Digital in Banking

Copyright © 2023 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.


Key Regulatory Measures

Individual Player Performance

37
Digital in Banking

Continued push on digital banking across banks


Banks are adapting digital banking by adding more branches and repositioning it as advisory centers with Select Banks
a digital-first mindset

Q1FY24 vs. Q1FY23

Saving Account sourced


98% vs. 87% 70%1 vs. 68%1 63%4 vs. 65%4 98% vs. 30% NA
digitally

FD sourced digitally 58% vs. 66% 72% vs. 68% NA NA 60% vs. 60%

~INR 332 Cr5 vs. ~INR


SIPs initiated digitally NA 76% vs. 42% 98% vs. 98% 63% vs. 78%
650 Cr5

Copyright © 2023 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.


Credit Card issued 214K+ cards vs. 60k
61% 84%2 vs. 81%2 97% vs. 90% 78%6 vs. 84%
digitally cards

Personal Loans sourced ~INR 5.4k Cr vs. ~INR


89% vs. 71% 55% vs. 52% 74% vs. 54% 60%6 vs. 94%
digitally 4.4K Cr

Volume of MB Transaction
NA 95%3 vs. 93% NA 93% vs. 92% 59%
and YoY growth

Note: 1.Digital Tablet based account opening process for Q1 FY24; 2.Issuance through Phygital mode; 3. Based on all financial transactions by individual
customers in Q1FY24 4. Opened through YONO 5.MF/PL sales through YONO- Annual 6. E2E Digital
Source : NPCI, Investor presentations, Analyst reports, BCG analysis 38
Digital in Banking

43% YoY jump witnessed in digital transactions in Q1FY24


Split of Financial Transactions (%) by volume
YoY Change Average
(Q1FY24 vs Ticket Size
No. of transactions (bn) Q1FY23) (Rs. Q1FY23)

11 15 18 23 36 50 67 121 200 42 60 UPI 59% 1,586

0% 0% 0% 4%
14% 15% 17% 15% MB + IB 36% 19,392
22% 25%
3% 33%
10% 38% 42% 41%
13% 11% 46%
11% 29% NACH -4% 9,814
8% 13%
19%
6%
39%

Copyright © 2023 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.


21% 8%
6% POS -10% 2,891
47%
5% 17% 50%
62% 6% 51% 50%
55% 3% 48% Cheque -6% 110,797
46% 10%
38% 2% 4% 2%
27% 4% 0% 2% 2% 1%
18% 1%
10% 1% 4% 5% 2% 3% 0% 2% 4% 1% 3% ATM -4% 4,945
FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 Q1FY23 Q1FY24

Notes: 1. Financial Transactions do not include cash transactions at branches; 2.Internet transactions include RTGS, ECS, NEFT and IMPS financial
transactions . ATM and Mobile transactions included are financial transactions only; 3. Total may not sum to 100 because of differences due to rounding off
4. Ticket Size calculated basis Value/Volume
Source: RBI data, National Payments Corporation of India (NPCI) statistics, BCG analysis 39
Digital in Banking

Top 3 players contribute ~96% of all UPI transactions

Share of UPI Transactions by UPI apps

Cred 11%
Amazon Pay
8%
Axis Bank Apps
PhonePe 46% 47% 7%
ICICI Bank Apps 6%
Yes Bank Apps 5%
3%
BHIM

Copyright © 2023 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.


Google Pay 34% 35%
Others 60%

Paytm 15% 14%


Other banks, PSPs 5% 4%
Jun’22 Jun’23 Jun’23

1. Total may not sum to 100 because of differences due to rounding off
Source: RBI data, NPCI, Press Releases, BCG Analysis 40
Macro Indicators

Key Performance Indicators

Business: Advances & Deposits


Banking
sector NPA & Risk Management

overview Digital in Banking

Copyright © 2023 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.


Key Regulatory Measures

Individual Player Performance

41
Key Regulatory Measures

Key Recent Regulatory Measures

This would be done through a temporary increase in the amount of funds lenders set aside with
RBI to withdraw 1 trillion rupees
the central bank, as it tries to keep a lid on inflation. This measure also intends to absorb
via incremental CRR
liquidity added to the banking system due to a return of 2,000-rupee denomination notes

About Rs 35,000 crore unclaimed deposits as of February 2023 were transferred to RBI by
RBI to develop web portal for
public sector banks (PSBs) in respect of deposits which were not operated for 10 years or
public to search unclaimed
more. In addition, it is also proposed to put in place a compensation mechanism for delayed
deposits across banks
updation/rectification of credit information. Detail guidelines are yet to be issued

Regulated entities (REs) can accept green deposits denominated only in rupees and allocate the

Copyright © 2023 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.


Framework for acceptance of proceeds to eligible green activities/projects. It is only in the case of bulk deposits that
Green Deposits banks have the flexibility to offer interest rates higher than the card rates. So, banks may
pitch the green deposits to bulk depositors.

RBI proposed to introduce and enable UPI-based payments through AI-powered conversations,
that will enable users to engage in a conversation with an AI-powered system to initiate and
RBI to enable UPI payments
complete transactions in a safe and secure environment. Also, to promote the use of UPI-Lite,
through AI conversations
it is proposed to facilitate offline transaction using Near Field Communication (NFC)
technology

Source: RBI, Press search 42


Key Regulatory Measures

e-RUPI
e-RUPI is a contactless cashless voucher based payment mechanism. It can be redeemed by beneficiary without a bank
account, card, digital payments app or internet banking access.

Flow
1 2
Sponsor
(Corporate/ Government Voucher creation request Initiate request to generate e-RUPI
Department/ Individuals )
Confirms e-RUPI generation Confirms e-RUPI creation
Issuer bank / non-bank
4A 3
prepaid payment Real time tracking of
Distribution instruments E-RUPI redemption

4B

Copyright © 2023 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.


Merchant
deliveres
service to
Indian Citizen
Beneficiary beneficiary
reaches for
(Beneficiary)
redemption
Merchant Customer Merchant Beneficiary
5 offering shows scans receives a Successful
service voucher/ voucher/ verification Payment 7
SMS SMS code

6
43
Source: NPCI, BCG analysis
Key Regulatory Measures

Use Cases of e-RUPI


115,288 • e-RUPI during pilot
Voucher Created Volume phase between Sep'22
Voucher Redeemed Volume to Apr'23, was majorly
used for medical
facilities (65%)
57,013
• In next phase it is
expected that it will
be used for
scholarship, pensions &
17,644
12,049
8,987
incentive payments
6,297 3,949 5,841 4,455
3,149

Copyright © 2023 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.


National Health Authority National Health Mission Madhya Pradesh Gov. Rajasthan Gov. Others
AB-PMJAY Lab Voucher Lab Voucher Cycle Voucher Scooty Voucher

Source: NPCI, BCG analysis; Between September 2022 to April 2023

Banks issuing e-Rupi • RBI on June 8, 2023


allowed non-bank
prepaid payment
instruments to issue e-
RUPI vouchers.
44
Macro Indicators

Key Performance Indicators

Business: Advances & Deposits


Banking
sector NPA & Risk Management

overview Digital in Banking

Copyright © 2023 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.


Key Regulatory Measures

Individual Player Performance

45
Individual Player Performance

Individual player performance (I/IV) – Standalone


Net Advances Deposits CASA
Period Rs Lakh Cr Rs Lakh Cr Ratio3 (%) NIM1 (%) CIR2 (%) GNPA (%) ROA1 (%)
Q1FY24 16.2 ▲ 16% 19.1 ▲ 19% 42.49 ▼ -329 bps 4.1 ▲ 6 bps 42.8 ▲ 222 bps 1.17 ▼ -11 bps 2.1 ▲ 17 bps
Q1FY23 14.0 16.0 45.78 4.0 40.6 1.28 1.9
Q1FY24 10.6 ▲ 18% 12.4 ▲ 18% 43.29 ▼ -356 bps 4.8 ▲ 75bps 40.2 ▼ -208 bps 2.76 ▼ -65 bps 2.5 ▲ 42 bps
Q1FY23 9.0 10.5 46.85 4.0 42.3 3.41 2.1
Q1FY24 8.6 ▲ 22% 9.4 ▲ 17% 45.54 ▲ 182 bps 3.9 ▲ 43 bps 48.3 ▼ -389 bps 1.96 ▼ -80 bps 1.9 ▲ 36 bps
Q1FY23 7.0 8.0 43.72 3.5 52.2 2.76 1.5
Q1FY24 3.3 ▲ 17% 3.9 ▲ 22% 49.01 ▼ -910 bps 5.3 ▲ 73 bps 44.5 ▼ -763 bps 1.77 ▼ -47 bps 2.9 ▲ 92 bps
Private new banks

Q1FY23 2.8 3.2 58.10 4.6 52.1 2.24 2.0


Q1FY24 3.0 ▲ 22% 3.5 ▲ 15% 39.89 ▼ -322 bps 4.4 ▲ 23 bps 45.9 ▲ 194 bps 1.94 ▼ -41 bps 1.9 ▲ 30 bps
Q1FY23 2.5 3.0 43.11 4.2 43.9 2.35 1.6
Q1FY24 2.0 ▲ 7% 2.2 ▲ 14% 29.43 ▼ -138 bps 2.4 ▼ -228 bps 73.9 ▼ -365 bps 2.00 ▼ -1,145 bps 0.4 ▼ -37 bps
Q1FY23 1.9 1.9 30.81 4.6 77.6 13.45 0.8
Q1FY24 1.7 ▲ 20% 2.4 ▲ 9% 52.61 ▼ -304 bps 5.1 ▼ -166 bps 37.8 ▼ -569 bps 5.05 ▼ -1,485 bps 1.5 ▼ -49 bps

Copyright © 2023 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.


Q1FY23 1.4 2.3 55.65 6.7 43.4 19.90 2.0
Q1FY24 1.7 ▲ 26% 1.5 ▲ 36% 46.47 ▼ -357 bps 6.7 ▲ 71 bps 70.9 ▼ -291 bps 2.17 ▼ -119 bps 1.4 ▲ 33 bps
Q1FY23 1.3 1.1 50.04 6.0 73.8 3.36 1.0
Q1FY24 1.0 ▲ 8% 1.1 ▲ 17% 36.02 ▼ -717 bps 6.8 ▼ -117 bps 45.7 ▲ 968 bps 6.76 ▼ -49 bps 2.0 ▼ -84 bps
Q1FY23 0.9 0.9 43.19 8.0 36.0 7.25 2.8
Q1FY24 0.7 ▲ 21% 0.9 ▲ 8% 37.30 ▲ 130 bps 4.4 ▲ 46 bps 66.5 ▼ -127 bps 3.22 ▼ -86 bps 1.0 ▲ 25 bps
Q1FY23 0.6 0.8 36.00 3.9 67.8 4.08 0.8

Note: All figures are global, unless stated otherwise; Calculated ratios may not match with reported figures due to differences in formula xxx Change vs. last year
1. NIM is calculated as NII as a % of average total assets; Return on assets is calculated a net profit as a % of average total assets 2. CIR is
calculated as Opex by Total Income (NII + Other Income) 3. "Domestic" CASA Ratio
Source: RBI; Capitaline; Press releases; BCG analysis 46
Individual Player Performance

Individual player performance (II/IV) – Standalone


Net Advances Deposits CASA
Period Rs Lakh Cr Rs Lakh Cr Ratio3 (%) NIM1 (%) CIR2 (%) GNPA (%) ROA1 (%)
Q1FY24 32.4 ▲ 15% 45.3 ▲ 12% 42.88 ▼ -245bps 2.9 ▲ 34 bps 50.4 ▼ -1157 bps 2.76 ▼ -115 bps 1.3 ▲ 77 bps
Q1FY23 28.2 40.5 45.33 2.6 61.9 3.91 0.5
Q1FY24 8.6 ▲ 16% 13.0 ▲ 14% 40.90 ▼ -454 bps 2.7 ▲ 36 bps 53.9 ▲ 724 bps 7.73 ▼ -354 bps 0.4 ▲ 26 bps
Q1FY23 7.4 11.4 45.44 2.3 46.6 11.27 0.1
Q1FY24 9.6 ▲ 20% 12.0 ▲ 16% 40.00 ▼ -400 bps 3.2 ▲ 25 bps 45.4 ▼ -946bps 3.51 ▼ -275 bps 1.2 ▲ 46 bps
Q1FY23 8.0 10.3 44.00 2.9 54.8 6.26 0.7
Q1FY24 8.6 ▲ 14% 11.9 ▲ 7% 33.00 ▼ -130 bps 2.6 ▲ 36bps 43.8 ▼ -99bps 5.15 ▼ -183 bps 1.1 ▲ 40 bps
Q1FY23 7.5 11.2 34.30 2.2 44.8 6.98 0.7
Q1FY24 7.7 ▲ 147% 11.3 ▲ 14% 34.14 ▼ -206 bps 2.9 ▲ 16 bps 43.7 ▲ -395 bps 7.34 ▼ -288 bps 1.1 ▲ 50 bps
Q1FY23 6.8 9.9 36.20 2.7 47.6 10.22 0.6
PSU banks

Q1FY24 4.9 ▲ 11% 7.0 ▲ 9% 37.42 ▼ -40 bps 3.0 ▲ 79 bps 49.1 ▼ -907 bps 6.67 ▼ -263 bps 0.8 ▲ 49 bps
Q1FY23 4.4 6.4 37.82 2.2 58.2 9.30 0.3
Q1FY24 4.8 ▲ 13% 6.2 ▲ 6% 40.26 ▼ -47 bps 3.3 ▲ 50 bps 44.2 ▲ 229 bps 5.47 ▼ -266 bps 1.0 ▲ 24 bps

Copyright © 2023 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.


Q1FY23 4.3 5.8 40.73 2.8 41.9 8.13 0.8
Q1FY24 2.1 ▲ 23% 3.6 ▲ 6% 49.56 ▼ -139 bps 3.2 ▲ 92 bps 55.6 ▼ -338 bps 4.95 ▼ -995 bps 0.4 ▲ 17 bps
Q1FY23 1.7 3.4 50.94 2.2 58.9 14.90 0.2
Q1FY24 1.8 ▲ 18% 2.6 ▲ 2% 44.14 ▲ 106 bps 3.0 ▲ 58 bps 57.0 ▲ 72 bps 7.13 ▼ -199 bps 0.7 ▲ 10 bps
Q1FY23 1.5 2.6 43.07 2.5 56.3 9.12 0.5
Q1FY24 1.6 ▲ 27% 2.5 ▲ 11% 38.10 ▼ -115 bps 2.8 ▲ 26 bps 54.5 ▼ -1793 bps 4.48 ▼ -294 bps 0.3 ▲ 12 bps
Q1FY23 1.2 2.3 39.25 2.6 72.4 7.42 0.2
Q1FY24 1.7 ▲ 26% 2.4 ▲ 25% 50.97 ▼ -511 bps 3.7 ▲ 58 bps 37.2 ▼ -278 bps 2.28 ▼ -146 bps 1.4 ▲ 55 bps
Q1FY23 1.4 2.0 56.08 3.1 40.0 3.74 0.8
Note: All figures are global, unless stated otherwise; Calculated ratios may not match with reported figures due to differences in formula xxx Change vs. last year
1. NIM is calculated as NII as a % of average total assets; Return on assets is calculated a net profit as a % of average total assets 2. CIR is
calculated as Opex by Total Income (NII + Other Income) 3. "Domestic" CASA Ratio
Source: RBI; Capitaline; Press releases; BCG analysis 47
Individual Player Performance

Individual player performance (III/IV) – Standalone


Net Advances Deposits CASA
Period Rs Lakh Cr Rs Lakh Cr Ratio3 (%) NIM1 (%) CIR2 (%) GNPA (%) ROA1 (%)
Q1FY24 0.8 ▲ 15% 1.1 ▲ 12% 31.69 ▼ -231 bps 2.2 ▼ -17 bps 71.9 ▲ 253 bps 6.80 ▼ -454 bps 0.5 ▼ -23 bps

Q1FY23 0.7 1.0 34.00 2.4 69.4 11.34 0.7


Q1FY24 1.8 ▲ 21% 2.2 ▲ 21% 31.85 ▼ -499bps 3.1 ▲ 5 bps 50.9 ▼ -181 bps 2.38 ▼ -31 bps 1.4 ▲ 24 bps

Q1FY23 1.5 1.8 36.84 3.0 52.7 2.69 1.1


Q1FY24 0.8 ▲ 17% 1.2 ▲ 8% 53.29 ▼ -244 bps 3.8 ▲ 46 bps 65.1 ▼ -410 bps 5.77 ▼ -332 bps 1.0 ▲ 43 bps

Q1FY23 0.7 1.1 55.74 3.4 69.2 9.09 0.5


Q1FY24 0.7 ▲ 14% 1.0 ▲ 8% 32.63 ▼ -176 bps 3.1 ▲ 59 bps 58.1 ▼ -465 bps 5.13 ▼ -74 bps 0.8 ▲ 29 bps

Q1FY23 0.6 0.9 34.39 2.5 62.7 5.87 0.5


Private old banks

Q1FY24 0.6 ▲ 5% 0.9 ▲ 8% 32.19 ▼ -61 bps 3.4 ▲ 33 bps 47.2 ▼ -256 bps 3.68 ▼ -35 bps 1.5 ▲ 103 bps

Q1FY23 0.6 0.8 32.80 3.0 49.8 4.03 0.5


Q1FY24 0.7 ▲ 16% 0.8 ▲ 14% 32.89 ▼ -363 bps 4.0 ▲ 25 bps 47.3 ▼ -231 bps 1.99 ▼ -329 bps 1.6 ▲ 45 bps

Q1FY23 0.6 0.7 36.52 3.8 49.6 5.28 1.2

Copyright © 2023 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.


Q1FY24 0.4 ▲ 19% 0.4 ▲ 23% 25.96 ▼ -4546bps 3.8 ▲ 26 bps 63.8 ▼ -40 bps 3.26 ▼ -95 bps 1.0 ▲ 11 bps

Q1FY23 0.3 0.4 71.43 3.5 64.2 4.21 0.9


Q1FY24 0.2 ▲ 31% 0.2 ▲ 21% 30.84 ▼ -430 bps 5.3 ▲ 15 bps 62.6 ▲ 496 bps 1.27 ▼ -52 bps 1.9 ▲ 3 bps

Q1FY23 0.2 0.2 35.14 5.2 57.7 1.79 1.9


Q1FY24 0.1 ▲ 15% 0.1 ▲ 7% 31.65 ▼ -143 bps 3.2 ▼ -7 bps 66.5 ▼ -3877 bps 5.21 ▼ -114 bps 0.8 ▲ 152 bps

Q1FY23 0.1 0.1 33.08 3.3 105.2 6.35 -0.7

Note: All figures are global, unless stated otherwise; Calculated ratios may not match with reported figures due to differences in formula xxx Change vs. last year
1. NIM is calculated as NII as a % of average total assets; Return on assets is calculated a net profit as a % of average total assets 2. CIR is calculated as Opex
by Total Income (NII + Other Income) 3. "Domestic" CASA Ratio
Source: RBI; Capitaline; Press releases; BCG analysis 48
Individual Player Performance

Individual player performance (IV/IV) – Standalone


Net Advances Deposits CASA
Period Rs Lakh Cr Rs Lakh Cr Ratio3 (%) NIM1 (%) CIR2 (%) GNPA (%) ROA1 (%)
Q1FY24 0.6 ▲ 29% 0.7 ▲ 27% 35.39 ▼ -434 bps 6.1 ▼ -25 bps 65.0 ▼ -26 bps 1.76 ▼ -20 bps 1.9 ▲ 15 bps
Q1FY23 0.5 0.5 39.73 6.4 65.3 1.96 1.8
Small Finance

Q1FY24 0.3 ▲ 34% 0.3 ▲ 36% 38.41 ▼ -1326 bps 9.0 ▲ 25bps 65.9 ▼ 344 bps 2.75 ▼ -135 bps 2.3 ▲ 85 bps
Banks

Q1FY23 0.2 0.2 51.66 8.7 62.4 4.10 1.5


Q1FY24 0.2 ▲ 34% 0.3 ▲ 45% 24.59 ▼ -335 bps 10.8 ▼ -19 bps 52.8 ▼ -578 bps 2.62 ▼ -389 bps 4.4 ▲ 69 bps
Q1FY23 0.2 0.2 27.94 10.9 58.6 6.51 3.7

Copyright © 2023 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.


Note: All figures are global, unless stated otherwise; Calculated ratios may not match with reported figures due to differences in formula xxx Change vs. last year
1. NIM is calculated as NII as a % of average total assets; Return on assets is calculated a net profit as a % of average total assets 2. CIR is calculated as Opex
by Total Income (NII + Other Income) 3. "Domestic" CASA Ratio
Source: RBI; Capitaline; Press releases; BCG analysis 49
The services and materials provided by Boston Consulting Group (BCG) are subject to BCG's Standard Terms
(a copy of which is available upon request) or such other agreement as may have been previously executed by BCG.
BCG does not provide legal, accounting, or tax advice. The Client is responsible for obtaining independent advice
concerning these matters. This advice may affect the guidance given by BCG. Further, BCG has made no undertaking
to update these materials after the date hereof, notwithstanding that such information may become outdated
or inaccurate.

The materials contained in this presentation are designed for the sole use by the board of directors or senior
management of the Client and solely for the limited purposes described in the presentation. The materials shall not be
copied or given to any person or entity other than the Client (“Third Party”) without the prior written consent of BCG.
These materials serve only as the focus for discussion; they are incomplete without the accompanying oral commentary
and may not be relied on as a stand-alone document. Further, Third Parties may not, and it is unreasonable for any
Third Party to, rely on these materials for any purpose whatsoever. To the fullest extent permitted by law (and except
to the extent otherwise agreed in a signed writing by BCG), BCG shall have no liability whatsoever to any Third Party,
and any Third Party hereby waives any rights and claims it may have at any time against BCG with regard to the
services, this presentation, or other materials, including the accuracy or completeness thereof. Receipt and review of
this document shall be deemed agreement with and consideration for the foregoing.

Copyright © 2023 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.


BCG does not provide fairness opinions or valuations of market transactions, and these materials should not be relied on
or construed as such. Further, the financial evaluations, projected market and financial information, and conclusions
contained in these materials are based upon standard valuation methodologies, are not definitive forecasts, and are not
guaranteed by BCG. BCG has used public and/or confidential data and assumptions provided to BCG by the Client.
BCG has not independently verified the data and assumptions used in these analyses. Changes in the underlying data or
operating assumptions will clearly impact the analyses and conclusions.

50
bcg.com

You might also like