Professional Documents
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Roundup – Q1 FY24
AUGUST 2023
Glossary: Classification of Indian banks used in this document
1
Q1FY24 results: Banking industry snapshot
1. Retail loans include home loan, auto loans, personal loans, and other retail loans 2
Summary Snapshot (I/II)
• India's GDP grew at 8.0% in Q1FY24, forecasted to grow between 6 to 6.5% YoY in FY24
− Most agencies have retained their GDP forecast for FY24 compared to previous quarter
• Moderate growth was seen across most high-frequency indicators vs last year
Macro Trends • Slowdown witnessed across exports, imports & two-wheeler consumption; uptick in EV registration &
three-wheeler sales
• Banking sector reported healthy profit of Rs. 0.74 lakh crore with a YoY jump of 69% for Q1FY2024
− Absolute profits for PSU Banks doubled YoY from Rs. 0.15 lakh crore to Rs. 0.34 lakh crore
− Hence, share in overall banking sector net profit of PSU Banks increased YoY from 35% to 47%
3
Summary Snapshot (II/II)
• Credit-deposit growth gap narrows as deposit grows stronger
− However, credit growth continues to outpace deposit growth at 17% and 14%, respectively
• Credit: Robust growth achieved across segment. Growth for Corporate (23%) & MSME (27%) segment of
private new banks were stronger compared to industry 15% & 18% respectively
• Deposits: CASA continued under pressure as YoY growth declined to 7% from 11%
Business − Sharp uptick in term deposits YoY growth from 9% to 19% due to deposit repricing
− CD issuances remained elevated over the year as banks continue to issue CDs as credit growth
sustains
5
Macro indicators
9.1%
8.0%
FY21
Q1FY22
Q2FY22
Q3FY22
Q4FY22
Q1FY23
Q2FY23
Q3FY23
Q4FY23
1. GDP growth for FY23 based on provisional estimates; 2: Forecast as of August 10, 2023
Note: Upper-limit has been included where agencies reported forecast range. Latest forecasts considered in case of revision by agency within same month;
Source: Analyst reports, BCG analysis 6
Macro indicators
Logistics Sentiment
E-way Bills (Mn) 86.0 74.5 15% 88.0 -2% Manufacturing PMI (Index) 57.8 53.9 7% 58.7 -2%
JNPT Traffic ('000 TEUs) 476.0 493.0 -3% 528.0 -10% Services PMI (Index) 58.5 59.2 -1% 61.2 -4%
Rail Freight (Mn Tons) 134.0 132.0 2% 126.0 6% Current Situation Index 89 76 17% 87 2%
Air Freight (K Tons) 270.1 271.1 0% 269.0 0% Future Expectations Index 116 113 3% 116 0%
Note: EV registrations incl. E-bus, E-car, electric 3W, electric 2W, electric 3W cargo sales, others
Source: DBIE, NPCI, IRDAI, AMFI, GIC, Life Insurance Council of India BCG analysis 7
Macro indicators
250
200 0
Jan-22 Mar-22 Jun-22 Sep-22 Dec-22 Mar-23 Apr-23 Jun-23 Jan-22 Mar-22 Jun-22 Sep-22 Dec-22 Mar-23 Apr-23 June-23
150 100 78
107 107
61
100
50
50
0 0
Jan-22 Mar-22 Jun-22 Sep-22 Dec-22 Mar-23 Apr-23 June-23 Jan-22 Mar-22 Jun-22 Sep-22 Dec-22 Mar-23 Apr-23 June-23
10
Key Performance Indicators
69% YoY jump in absolute profits fueled by higher NII & treasury gains
Confidence in Asset Quality allowed banks to scale back on provisioning
Values for
Q1FY24
INR Bn
4,254
Substantial Mark to market gains
bolstered other income growth
63%
Share of PSBs in banking sector
PSBs 58% PAT increased from ~35% to ~47%
660 2,528 YoY
36% 51%
1,869 53%
48%
Private 1% 1% 53%
Interest Interest NII Other Total income Opex PPOP Credit Cost Taxes Net profit
earned expense Income (Net)
Growth
35% 42% 27% 60% 34% 25% 43% -12% 87% 69%
YoY1
1. YoY growth Q1FY24 vs. Q1FY23
Analysis has been made based on 33 Banks: 12 PSBs, 10 Private-New, 8 Private-Old Banks and 3 Small Finance Banks 11
Source: Capitaline; Press releases; BCG analysis
Key Performance Indicators
Particulars1 UoM Q1FY24 Q1FY23 Q1FY24 Q1FY23 Q1FY24 Q1FY23 Q1FY24 Q1FY23 Q1FY24 Q1FY23
Net interest Margin (%) 2.9 2.6 4.4 4.0 3.5 3.2 7.7 7.9 3.5 3.1
Fee + Other Income (%) 1.0 0.6 1.6 1.4 1.2 0.8 1.8 1.5 1.2 0.9
Operating expenses (%) 1.9 1.7 2.8 2.5 2.6 2.3 5.9 5.9 2.3 2.0
Credit costs (%) 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.8 0.5 0.7
Tax (%) 0.4 0.2 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.3
Return on Assets (%) 1.0 0.5 2.0 1.7 1.3 0.8 2.5 2.1 1.4 0.9
1. All the above #s are as a % of average assets; 2. Pre-provision profit may not tally due to rounding off differences
Analysis has been made based on 33 Banks: 12 PSBs, 10 Private-New, 8 Private-Old Banks and 3 Small Finance Banks
Source: Capitaline, Press releases, BCG analysis 12
Key Performance Indicators
~70% of industry loans are floating rate based; of which 50% are EBLR-based, wherein rate transmission is immediate
3% 4% 1%
2% 2% 1%
Industry Industry PSU Banks Pvt Banks
Note: MCLR: Marginal Cost of funds-based Lending Rate, EBLR: External Benchmark-based Lending Rate. Data as of June 2023
Source: RBI; BCG analysis 13
Key Performance Indicators
Note: WALR is Weighted Average Lending Rates on fresh loans and WATDR is Weighted Average Domestic Term Deposit Rates on outstanding
deposits; All figures at an aggregate industry level
Source: RBI; BCG analysis 14
Key Performance Indicators
% %
3 3 2.8
2.5 2.4
2.3
2.1
2 2
1.5 1.9
1.8 1.8
PSBs Private
Analysis has been made based on 33 Banks: 12 PSBs, 10 Private-New, 8 Private-Old Banks and 3 Small Finance Banks
Source: RBI; BCG analysis 15
Key Performance Indicators
(%)
2.5 19.8
2.5 20 18.5
2.3
2.1 16.7 16.8
2.1 2.0 16.3
2.0 16.2 14.0
15 13.2 15.8
1.6 1.6 14.1 13.7 15.7
1.7 12.4 13.1
1.5 1.4
1.5 10.5 10.5
1.2 10.9 12.4
1.1 1.3 10 9.0
1Return on Assets is calculated as net profit/average assets 2Return on Equity is calculated as net profit/average shareholders' fund
Analysis has been made based on 33 Banks: 12 PSBs, 10 Private-New, 8 Private-Old Banks and 3 Small Finance Banks
Source: RBI; Capitaline; Press releases; BCG analysis 16
Key Performance Indicators
26 27
21 20 22 21
20 19
18 18 18 17 18 17
17 17 17 16 16 17 16 16 16 17 16 16 16 17
15 14 15 14
13 Minimum
requirement
9%
Federal
RBL
Kotak Mah.
Bandhan
Union
IDBI
ICICI
South Ind.
Ujjivan
HDFC
PNB
SBI
DCB
Indian
BOB
IOB
J&K
Dhanlaxmi
AU
IndusInd
Axis
PSB
Equitas
Yes
UCO
Bank of Maha
CSB
Central Bank
Karnataka
IDFC First
Canara
Karur Vysya
Credit
Growth 17 20 8 16 18 7 22 22 26 21 26 15 14 27 13 11 20 18 14 16 15 23 31 16 19 14 5 17 21 15 34 34 29
(%)
Private New banks PSU banks Private Old banks SFB
Index (weighted by market cap.) for PSBs, Pvt Banks and NBFCs
PSU Index Pvt Banks Index
200
149.3
150
110.8
100
Note: PSBs index includes 12 PSBs; Private Bank index includes 10 Private-New and 9 Private-Old Banks. Index weighted as per market capitalization of banks
Index period from April 1st, 2021 to July 31th , 2023
Source: Capital IQ 18
Key Performance Indicators
1.7
1.6
1.5 1.5
1.4 1.4
1.0 1.0
0.9 0.9 0.8
0.7 0.7
0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6
0.5
0.4 0.4 0.4
Indian
Central
BoI
IOB
BoB
Canara
SBI
BoM
PNB
P&SB
Union
Market Cap1
46 511 22 19 33 98 25 36 55 49 57 30
(Rs'000 Cr)
Return since
49% 23% 126% 86% 150% 96% 72% 96% 67% 111% 78% 66%
Jun'22 (%)2
Note: 1.Market Cap as on Jun 30, 2023, 2.Return refer to YoY change in Market Cap
Source: Capitaline, BCG Analysis 20
Key Performance Indicators
3.4 3.3
3.1
2.9
2.4 2.4
2.1 2.0 2.0
1.7 1.6 1.6 1.5
1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2
0.9 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7
0.6 0.6
0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5
Yes
Karnataka
IndusInd
DCB
CSB
CUB
Kotak
HDFC
Bandhan
Dhanlaxmi
Federal
SIB
KVB
IDFC
J&K
IDBI
RBL
ICICI
Market Cap1
367 952 654 304 53 39 107 5 59 9 27 47 10 4 11 6 6 4 0.4
(Rs'000 Cr)
Return since
11% 27% 33% 56% 169% -8% 73% 47% 80% -4% 41% 47% 179% 65% 118% 192% 139% 154% 48%
Jun'22 (%)2
Note: 1.Market Cap as on Jun 30, 2023, 2.Return refer to YoY change in Market Cap
Source: Capitaline, BCG Analysis 21
Key Performance Indicators
SFB & select Private old banks valuations remained high over June 2022
1.9 1.9
1.6 1.5
1.3 1.3 1.2
1.2 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.2
0.9 0.8
0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6
0.5 0.4 0.5
Karnataka
Suryoday
DCB
Equitas
Ujjivan
CSB
CUB
Federal
SIB
Dhanlaxmi
KVB
J&K
AU SFB
Market Cap1
50 10 7 5 9 27 2 10 4 6 6 4 0.4
(Rs'000 Cr)
Return since
35% 103% 185% 47% -4% 41% 122% 179% 65% 192% 139% 154% 48%
Jun'22 (%)2
Note: 1.Market Cap as on Jun 30, 2023, 2.Return refer to YoY change in Market Cap
Source: Capitaline, BCG Analysis 22
Key Performance Indicators
Merger of HDFC Bank Ltd. & HDFC Ltd. executed on July 1, 2023
Proforma merged HDFC Bank's financials (30 June) Post-merger key updates
Driving greater cross-sell from group Aggressive growth plans to deepen presence
HL penetration in retail
2% FY 23 FY 24E
customers from HDFC Ltd. FY 23 FY 24E
24
Macro Indicators
25
Business: Advances & Deposits
Growth % YoY
20 18.2
16.0 16.7
14.8
15 13.0
15.6 11.5
14.6 10.3 10.4 10.4 13.6
10 7.9 11.4
7.2 7.5
CD
79% 79% 78% 78% 73% 74% 75% 74% 70% 69% 77% 76%
Ratio2
1. Credit growth are Net Advances growth. 2.Credit-Deposit Ratio is calculated as Net Advances/Total Deposits
Analysis has been made based on 33 Banks: 12 PSBs, 10 Private-New, 8 Private-Old Banks and 3 Small Finance Banks
Source: RBI; Capitaline; Press releases; BCG analysis 26
Business: Advances & Deposits
Industry PSU Banks YoY Private New YoY Private Old YoY SFB YoY
YoY Growth
Growth Growth Growth Growth
17% 14% 21% 16% 31%
12,357 14,364 Q1FY23 Q1FY24 7,636 8,683 4,156 5,043 471 547 89 116
30% 31% 19% 20% 25% 26% 19% 29% 30% 17%
39% 39% 21% 33% 34% 36%
Q1 FY23 Q1 FY24 Q1 FY23 Q1 FY24 Q1 FY23 Q1 FY24 Q1 FY23 Q1 FY24 Q1 FY23 Q1 FY24
X
Note: MSME includes SME, LAP, Business Banking and CV/CE loans; Agri includes Rural Loans, Kisan gold card loans and Tractor Loans; Others include Micro
finance, PSL Inorganic + SRs and Loan Converted into Equity and credit substitutes
Analysis has been made based on 33 Banks: 12 PSBs, 10 Private-New, 8 Private-Old Banks and 3 Small Finance Banks 27
Source: RBI; Capitaline; Press releases; BCG analysis
Business: Advances & Deposits
PSBs 62% 61% 61% 61% 61% PSBs 67% 66% 66% 65% 65%
PVT-N 34% 35% 34% 35% 35% PVT-N 28% 29% 30% 31% 31%
PVT-O 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% PVT-O 4% 4% 4% 4% 4%
SFBs 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% SFBs 0% 1% 1% 1% 1%
Analysis has been made based on 33 Banks: 12 PSBs, 10 Private-New, 8 Private-Old Banks and 3 Small Finance Banks 28
Source: RBI; Capitaline; Press releases; BCG analysis
Business: Advances & Deposits
CASA growth YoY by bank category (%) Term Deposits growth YoY by bank category (%)
Growth % yoy Growth % yoy
140 132 60
112 47.4
39.7
100 25 94 40
19 28 25.3
20 16 12 21.7
10 24.3 18.0 24.0
20 18 12 11 11
12 11 6 11.4 10.8 16.9
15 7 20 15.0 18.5
4 5.4 16.1
0 8 7 5 7.9 9.0
4 4.3 15.5
-2 6.8 7.0 13.5
PSBs 66% 64% 64% 63% 63% PSBs 69% 67% 67% 65% 65%
PVT-N 30% 32% 32% 34% 33% PVT-N 27% 28% 29% 30% 30%
PVT-O 3% 3% 4% 3% 3% PVT-O 4% 4% 4% 4% 4%
SFBs 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% SFBs 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
Analysis has been made based on 33 Banks: 12 PSBs, 10 Private-New, 8 Private-Old Banks and 3 Small Finance Banks
Source: RBI; Capitaline; Press releases; BCG analysis 29
Business: Advances & Deposits
100 86
72
62 64 57
Banks expect the rate-setting
monetary policy committee to begin
reducing the repo rate starting in
Sep- Dec- Mar- Jun- Sep- Dec- Mar- Jun- Sep- Dec- Mar- 23- the fourth quarter of FY24.
20 20 21 21 21 21 22 22 22 22 23 Jun
CD as %
of total 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.3 1.4
assets
31
NPA and Risk Management
15
10.3%
Indian Banking 10 9.1%
at a decadal 5
5.5%
5.4%
5.8%
5.0%
5.9%
4.9%
5.7%
4.8%
5.0% 4.6%
Analysis has been made based on 33 Banks: 12 PSBs, 10 Private-New, 8 Private-Old Banks and 3 Small
Finance BanksSource: RBI; Capitaline; Press releases; BCG analysis 32
NPA and Risk Management
Reduction in NPAs levels seen across banks & bank categories (1/2)
Driven primarily by write-offs and lower slippages
Select Banks
Gross Non-Performing assets (%)
19.9
Jun’22 Jun’23
14.9
13.5
11.3 11.3
10.2
9.3 9.1
7.7 8.1
7.3 6.8 7.3 7.1 7.4 7.0
6.8 6.7 6.3
UCO
Axis
HDFC
Indian
Bandhan
Kotak
Canara
BOM
IDBI
ICICI
RBL
BoB
IndusInd
BOI
IOB
PNB
SBI
P&SB
Central
Union
Private New Banks PSU Banks
Reduction in NPAs levels seen across banks & bank categories (2/2)
Select Banks
Gross Non-Performing assets (%)
9.1
Jun’22 Jun’23
6.4 6.5
5.8 5.9
5.2 5.1 5.2
Karnataka
Ujjivan
Equitas
CSB
AU
Federal
Dhanlaxmi
KVB
DCB
J&K
SIB
Equitas
BOM
Central
IOB
CSB
Canara
AU
BOI
PNB
BOB
SBI
Union
PSB
South Ind.
Federal
RBL
Dhanlaxmi
Karnataka
Bandhan
IndusInd
Kotak Mah.
ICICI
Yes
Karur Vysya
DCB
Axis
IDFC First
J&K
IDBI
HDFC
YoY
Change -323 316 233 539 205 -141 -289 -566 609 -2359 1260 1231 578 986 258 -147 1105 -23 635 -673 437 -1074 2074 801 798 600 543 1255 630 1470 -61 -260 933
(bps)
1. All the above PCR% are excluding Technical write-offs and have been calculated as (GNPA-NNPA)/GNP
Source: Capitaline, Investor presentation, Press release, BCG Analysis 35
NPA and Risk Management
Bounce rate flatten out post a drastic fall from pre covid levels
Despite inflationary pressures, bounce rates at a three-year low, showing that the asset quality of banks remains
strong
45.4
38.1
Jun-20 Mar-21 Oct-21 Sep-22 Q1FY24 Jun-20 Jan-21 Jan-22 Mar-23 Q1FY24
Note: Bounce rate is for recurring payment transactions on NACH platform (e.g.: Insurance premium, EMIs, etc.)
Source: NPCI, BCG Analysis 36
Macro Indicators
37
Digital in Banking
FD sourced digitally 58% vs. 66% 72% vs. 68% NA NA 60% vs. 60%
Volume of MB Transaction
NA 95%3 vs. 93% NA 93% vs. 92% 59%
and YoY growth
Note: 1.Digital Tablet based account opening process for Q1 FY24; 2.Issuance through Phygital mode; 3. Based on all financial transactions by individual
customers in Q1FY24 4. Opened through YONO 5.MF/PL sales through YONO- Annual 6. E2E Digital
Source : NPCI, Investor presentations, Analyst reports, BCG analysis 38
Digital in Banking
0% 0% 0% 4%
14% 15% 17% 15% MB + IB 36% 19,392
22% 25%
3% 33%
10% 38% 42% 41%
13% 11% 46%
11% 29% NACH -4% 9,814
8% 13%
19%
6%
39%
Notes: 1. Financial Transactions do not include cash transactions at branches; 2.Internet transactions include RTGS, ECS, NEFT and IMPS financial
transactions . ATM and Mobile transactions included are financial transactions only; 3. Total may not sum to 100 because of differences due to rounding off
4. Ticket Size calculated basis Value/Volume
Source: RBI data, National Payments Corporation of India (NPCI) statistics, BCG analysis 39
Digital in Banking
Cred 11%
Amazon Pay
8%
Axis Bank Apps
PhonePe 46% 47% 7%
ICICI Bank Apps 6%
Yes Bank Apps 5%
3%
BHIM
1. Total may not sum to 100 because of differences due to rounding off
Source: RBI data, NPCI, Press Releases, BCG Analysis 40
Macro Indicators
41
Key Regulatory Measures
This would be done through a temporary increase in the amount of funds lenders set aside with
RBI to withdraw 1 trillion rupees
the central bank, as it tries to keep a lid on inflation. This measure also intends to absorb
via incremental CRR
liquidity added to the banking system due to a return of 2,000-rupee denomination notes
About Rs 35,000 crore unclaimed deposits as of February 2023 were transferred to RBI by
RBI to develop web portal for
public sector banks (PSBs) in respect of deposits which were not operated for 10 years or
public to search unclaimed
more. In addition, it is also proposed to put in place a compensation mechanism for delayed
deposits across banks
updation/rectification of credit information. Detail guidelines are yet to be issued
Regulated entities (REs) can accept green deposits denominated only in rupees and allocate the
RBI proposed to introduce and enable UPI-based payments through AI-powered conversations,
that will enable users to engage in a conversation with an AI-powered system to initiate and
RBI to enable UPI payments
complete transactions in a safe and secure environment. Also, to promote the use of UPI-Lite,
through AI conversations
it is proposed to facilitate offline transaction using Near Field Communication (NFC)
technology
e-RUPI
e-RUPI is a contactless cashless voucher based payment mechanism. It can be redeemed by beneficiary without a bank
account, card, digital payments app or internet banking access.
Flow
1 2
Sponsor
(Corporate/ Government Voucher creation request Initiate request to generate e-RUPI
Department/ Individuals )
Confirms e-RUPI generation Confirms e-RUPI creation
Issuer bank / non-bank
4A 3
prepaid payment Real time tracking of
Distribution instruments E-RUPI redemption
4B
6
43
Source: NPCI, BCG analysis
Key Regulatory Measures
45
Individual Player Performance
Note: All figures are global, unless stated otherwise; Calculated ratios may not match with reported figures due to differences in formula xxx Change vs. last year
1. NIM is calculated as NII as a % of average total assets; Return on assets is calculated a net profit as a % of average total assets 2. CIR is
calculated as Opex by Total Income (NII + Other Income) 3. "Domestic" CASA Ratio
Source: RBI; Capitaline; Press releases; BCG analysis 46
Individual Player Performance
Q1FY24 4.9 ▲ 11% 7.0 ▲ 9% 37.42 ▼ -40 bps 3.0 ▲ 79 bps 49.1 ▼ -907 bps 6.67 ▼ -263 bps 0.8 ▲ 49 bps
Q1FY23 4.4 6.4 37.82 2.2 58.2 9.30 0.3
Q1FY24 4.8 ▲ 13% 6.2 ▲ 6% 40.26 ▼ -47 bps 3.3 ▲ 50 bps 44.2 ▲ 229 bps 5.47 ▼ -266 bps 1.0 ▲ 24 bps
Q1FY24 0.6 ▲ 5% 0.9 ▲ 8% 32.19 ▼ -61 bps 3.4 ▲ 33 bps 47.2 ▼ -256 bps 3.68 ▼ -35 bps 1.5 ▲ 103 bps
Note: All figures are global, unless stated otherwise; Calculated ratios may not match with reported figures due to differences in formula xxx Change vs. last year
1. NIM is calculated as NII as a % of average total assets; Return on assets is calculated a net profit as a % of average total assets 2. CIR is calculated as Opex
by Total Income (NII + Other Income) 3. "Domestic" CASA Ratio
Source: RBI; Capitaline; Press releases; BCG analysis 48
Individual Player Performance
Q1FY24 0.3 ▲ 34% 0.3 ▲ 36% 38.41 ▼ -1326 bps 9.0 ▲ 25bps 65.9 ▼ 344 bps 2.75 ▼ -135 bps 2.3 ▲ 85 bps
Banks
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