EQUITY RESEARCH

BBRI - Results update - 05 May 2023

CIPTADANA SEKURITAS ASIA

BUY Bank Rakyat Indonesia

Growth of Kupedes resumed strongly
TP: 6,100 (+18.4%)
Earnings slightly beat on CoC and opex
Sector Banking
Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI) recorded Rp15.5 tn (27% YoY) earnings in 1Q23, forming
Bloomberg Ticker BBRI IJ 26/27% of ours and consensus estimates, respectively (vs. historical range of 22-24%). NII
(8% YoY) and PPoP (10% YoY) were relatively in-line with estimates, however provision
Share Price Performance
expense (-25% YoY) was better than estimates with CoC standing at 2.0% in 1Q23 (vs. 3.0%
Last Price(Rp) 5,150 in 1Q22). Aside from CoC, opex (8.6% YoY in 1Q23) also performed strongly with CIR
Avg. Daily T/O(Rpbn/USDmn) 677.5/46.2 trending down to 41.8% (vs. 42.2% in 1Q22). On quarterly basis, earnings grew by 29% YoY
mainly on the back of PPoP growth (41% YoY).
3m 6m 12m
Growth of Kupedes resumed strongly
Absolute (%) 8.4 9.8 14.7
Loan growth was still stable at 9% YoY (3% QoQ), however the growth driver came from
Relative to JCI (%) 9.4 13.4 14.3 Kupedes (29% YoY, 28% QoQ) rather than KUR (4% YoY, -12% QoQ, which was good for the
52w High/Low price(Rp) 5,275/3,960 bank’s margin. The year-to-date Kupedes growth of 28% has even exceeded our year end
expectation of 22%. This as Kupedes loan disbursement achieved Rp59 tn in 3M23, which
was very strong and surpassed the disbursement in 9M22. This is mainly due to the
6,000 15% absence of KUR distribution as it is waiting for the role out of new KUR scheme in Mar-23,
5,000 10% and as the bank maintain its strategy to focus on the commercial micro in post-pandemic.
4,000
5% The more encouraging trend is that the distribution of Kupedes still dominating 56% of
3,000 micro loan disbursement post KUR new scheme in Mar-23 (vs. 20% in Mar-22). Aside
0%
2,000 micro, solid growth also came from consumer (14% YoY) and corporate (10% YoY)
1,000 -5%
segment. The bank maintains its loan growth target of 10-12% on 2023F, which is slightly
- -10%
higher than the 1Q23 achievement.
Apr-22

Oct-22

Jan-23

Apr-23
Jul-22

NIM stable thanks to enhancement in yield

NIM was stable YoY at 8.5% in 1Q23, as the bank could achieve higher yield (+70bps to
BBRI 1yr Rel. to JCI (RHS)
11.0% in 1Q23) which fully offset the rise in CoF (+70bps YoY to 2.7%). On quarterly basis,
the rise in CoF was very soft as it increased by 20bps to 2.7% in 1Q23. Liquidity is also still
ample with LDR stood lower at 94% in 1Q23 (vs. 95% in 1Q22), with funding growth still
Outstanding Shrs (mn) 123,346 solid at 11.4% YoY.
Mkt. Cap (Rpbn/USDmn) 635,231/43,272 NPL improved YoY but LAR stable
NPL slightly improved by 10bps YoY to 3.0% in 1Q23 (vs. 3.1% in 1Q22). However, overall
Estimated Free Float (%) 43.3
asset quality was stable QoQ as LAR stood at 16.3% in 1Q23, similar to previous quarter.
Major Shareholders We see this is due to the increase in NPL and SML due to seasonality, which was more
Government of Indonesia 53.2% than offset the improvement in coll.1-restructured loan. LAR coverage stood at 51% as of
1Q23, also stable from previous quarter.
Maintain Buy with a target price of Rp6,100/share
We continue to like BBRI especially given the strong rebound trend for Kupedes loan. We
EPS Consensus think this would give upside on NIM for BBRI going forward given the peaking interest rate
and peaking CoF. However, we maintain our NIM expectation for now at 8.3% in 2023F (vs.
Ciptadana Cons. % Diff 8.4% in 2022). We maintain our Buy rating on BBRI, with TP of Rp6,100/share, implying
2023F 389.6 383.5 1.6 PBV target of 2.9/2.7x 2023/24F.
2024F 417.6 428.7 -2.6
2025F 484.4 477.0 1.6 Exhibit 1 : Financial Highlights
Year to 31 Dec 2021A 2022A 2023F 2024F 2025F
Net Interest Income (Rpbn) 114,094 124,597 130,096 144,423 160,690
Net Profit (Rpbn) 31,067 51,170 59,050 63,284 73,408
EPS (Rp) 205.0 337.6 389.6 417.6 484.4
EPS growth (%) 35.5 64.7 15.4 7.2 16.0
BVPS (Rp) 1,905.1 1,974.8 2,078.6 2,223.0 2,413.9
Erni Marsella Siahaan, CFA PER (x) 25.1 15.3 13.2 12.3 10.6
+62 21 2557 4800 ext. 919 PBV (x) 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.3 2.1
siahaanerni@ciptadana.com ROA (%) 1.9 2.9 3.1 3.2 3.4
ROE (%) 12.0 17.4 19.2 19.4 20.9
http://www.ciptadana.com Dividend Yield (%) 1.6 3.4 5.6 5.3 5.7
Source : BBRI, Ciptadana Estimates

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 EQUITY RESEARCH
BBRI - Results update - 05 May 2023
CIPTADANA SEKURITAS ASIA

Exhibit 2: BBRI 1Q23 results

(in Rp bn) 3M23 3M22 YoY 1Q23 4Q22 QoQ 2023F 3M23/23F
Interest income 42,460 36,732 15.6% 42,460 36,623 15.9%
Interest expense (9,681) (6,325) 53.1% (9,681) (8,534) 13.4%
Net interest income 32,779 30,407 7.8% 32,779 28,090 16.7% 133,012 25%

Non-interest operating income 10,465 9,051 15.6% 10,465 15,600 -32.9% 49,924 21%

Non-interest operating expense (18,091) (16,664) 8.6% (18,091) (25,905) -30.2% (82,670) 22%

PPOP 25,153 22,794 10.3% 25,153 17,784 41.4% 100,267 25%

Provision expense (5,599) (7,474) -25.1% (5,599) (2,352) 138.0% (25,851) 22%

Operating profit 19,554 15,320 27.6% 19,554 15,432 26.7% 74,416 26%

Net income 15,501 12,167 27.4% 15,501 12,014 29.0% 59,129 26%

Ratios (%)
Asset yield 11.0 10.2 0.7 11.0 9.9 1.1
Cost of fund 2.7 2.0 0.7 2.7 2.5 0.2
NIM 8.5 8.5 0.0 8.5 7.6 0.9
CASA 64.5 63.6 0.9 64.5 66.7 -2.2
LDR 93.7 95.2 -1.5 93.7 86.7 6.9
Cost to income 41.8 42.2 -0.4 41.8 59.3 -17.5
Tax rate 20.6 20.4 0.1 20.6 21.2 -0.7
NPL gross 3.0 3.1 -0.1 3.0 2.8 0.2
Credit cost (% of avg. loans) 2.0 3.0 -0.9 2.0 0.9 1.2
Loan loss coverage 271.0 279.6 -8.6 271.0 290.2 -19.2
CAR 23.0 22.6 0.4 23.0 23.3 -0.3
ROA 3.4 2.9 0.4 3.4 2.7 0.7
ROE 21.4 17.4 4.1 21.4 16.1 5.3

Deposit 1,255,453 1,126,495 11.4% 1,255,453 1,307,884 -4.0%

Demand 309,890 227,551 36.2% 309,890 349,756 -11.4%
Savings 500,201 489,258 2.2% 500,201 522,648 -4.3%
Time 445,362 409,687 8.7% 445,362 435,481 2.3%
Loan 1,116,520 1,024,346 9.0% 1,116,520 1,079,275 3.5%
NPL 33,719 31,652 6.5% 33,719 30,436 10.8%
Loan loss reserves -91,370 -88,501 3.2% -91,370 -88,324 3.4%
Shareholders equity 279,585 272,275 2.7% 279,585 299,294 -6.6%

Source : Company and Ciptadana Sekuritas Asia

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 EQUITY RESEARCH
BBRI - Results update - 05 May 2023
CIPTADANA SEKURITAS ASIA

Exhibit 3 - Income Statement

Year to 31 Dec (Rpbn) 2021A 2022A 2023F 2024F 2025F
Interest income 143,523 151,875 160,975 177,378 196,196
Interest expenses -29,429 -27,278 -30,880 -32,956 -35,506
Net interest income 114,094 124,597 130,096 144,423 160,690
Other non-interest income 42,259 48,880 54,721 59,228 63,763
Total operating income 156,353 173,477 184,817 203,651 224,453
Operating expenses -75,918 -82,192 -86,554 -92,523 -98,462
PPoP 80,435 91,285 98,263 111,128 125,991
Prov. expenses and others -39,291 -26,979 -24,056 -31,600 -33,743
Operating profit 41,144 64,306 74,207 79,527 92,248
Non-operating income (exp.) -2,553 291 291 291 291
Pre-tax profit 38,591 64,597 74,498 79,818 92,539
Income tax -7,836 -13,189 -15,210 -16,296 -18,893
Minority interest 311 -238 -238 -238 -238
Net profit 31,067 51,170 59,050 63,284 73,408

Exhibit 4 - Balance Sheet

Year to 31 Dec (Rpbn) 2021A 2022A 2023F 2024F 2025F
Cash 26,300 27,408 39,162 42,753 47,029
Current acct, with BI 56,427 150,935 101,980 111,269 122,326
Interbank placement 73,013 91,870 101,057 111,162 122,279
Mkt, securities 426,653 381,257 341,628 356,158 371,415
Govt. Bonds 0 0 0 0 0
Loans 909,583 990,951 1,101,194 1,206,659 1,321,031
Fixed assets 47,970 55,216 63,498 73,023 83,977
Other assets 92,697 112,965 114,095 115,236 116,388
Total Asset 1,678,097 1,865,639 1,923,156 2,082,857 2,257,700

Deposits from customer 1,138,743 1,307,884 1,350,402 1,474,257 1,621,683

Borrowings 153,757 153,483 152,745 166,703 165,186
Other liabilities 80,482 91,543 91,543 91,543 91,543
Total liabilities 1,386,311 1,562,244 1,604,024 1,741,837 1,887,746
Shareholder equity 288,734 299,294 315,030 336,919 365,853
Minority interest 3,052 4,101 4,101 4,101 4,101
Total liab + SHE 1,678,097 1,865,639 1,923,156 2,082,857 2,257,700

Exhibit 5 - Per Share Data

Year to 31 Dec(Rp) 2021A 2022A 2023F 2024F 2025F

EPS 205.0 337.6 389.6 417.6 484.4
BVPS 1,905.1 1,974.8 2,078.6 2,223.0 2,413.9
DPS 80.0 174.2 287.0 272.7 292.3

Source : BBRI, Ciptadana Estimates

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 EQUITY RESEARCH
BBRI - Results update - 05 May 2023
CIPTADANA SEKURITAS ASIA

Exhibit 6 - Key Ratios

Year to 31 Dec 2021A 2022A 2023F 2024F 2025F
Ratios
ROA (%) 1.9 2.9 3.1 3.2 3.4
ROE (%) 12.0 17.4 19.2 19.4 20.9
Net interest margin (%) 8.0 8.4 8.3 8.6 8.9
Yield on earnings asset (%) 10.0 10.2 10.3 10.6 10.8
Average cost of fund (%) 2.2 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.1
Cost to income ratio (%) 48.6 47.4 46.8 45.4 43.9
Cost of credit (%) 2.7 1.8 1.5 1.9 1.9
Non-performing loan (%) 3.0 2.8 2.6 2.6 2.6
Coverage ratio (%) 284.4 290.2 289.3 289.3 286.0
Loan to deposit ratio (%) 87.3 82.5 88.2 88.4 87.9
CASA ratio (%) 63.1 66.7 64.2 63.9 63.9
Equity to Asset (%) 17.2 16.0 16.4 16.2 16.2
Capital adequacy ratio (%) 25.3 23.3 20.5 20.2 20.3
Tier-1 CAR 24.3 22.3 19.5 19.2 19.3
PER (x) 25.1 15.3 13.2 12.3 10.6
PBV (x) 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.3 2.1
Dividend yield (%) 1.6 3.4 5.6 5.3 5.7
Growth (%)
Total assets growth 4.2 11.2 3.1 8.3 8.4
Loan growth 5.4 8.5 10.4 9.5 9.3
Deposit growth 1.6 14.9 3.3 9.2 10.0
NPL growth 7.5 2.0 2.1 8.1 8.8
SHE growth 27.2 3.7 5.3 6.9 8.6
Net interest income growth 21.9 9.2 4.4 11.0 11.3
Non-interest income growth 8.4 15.7 12.0 8.2 7.7
Provision expense growth 11.4 -31.3 -10.8 31.4 6.8
Net profit growth 66.5 64.7 15.4 7.2 16.0

Source : BBRI, Ciptadana Estimates

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 EQUITY RESEARCH
CIPTADANA SEKURITAS ASIA
BBRI - Results update - 05 May 2023

EQUITY RESEARCH

HEAD OF RESEARCH ECONOMIST ANALYST

Arief Budiman Renno Prawira Erni Marsella Siahaan, CFA
Strategy, Automotive, Heavy Equipment, Economist Banking, Hospital
Construction, Oil & Gas and Shipping T +62 21 2557 4800 ext 735 T +62 21 2557 4800 ext 919
T +62 21 2557 4800 ext 819 E prawirarenno@ciptadana.com E siahaanerni@ciptadana.com
E budimanarief@ciptadana.com

ANALYST ANALYST ANALYST

Yasmin Soulisa Gani Thomas Radityo
Property, Plantations Telco, Tower, Media, Technology Coal, Metal Mining
T +62 21 2557 4800 ext 799 T +62 21 2557 4800 ext 734 T +62 21 2557 4800 ext 795
E soulisayasmin@ciptadana.com E gani@ciptadana.com E radityothomas@ciptadana.com

ANALYST ANALYST ANALYST

Putu Chantika Putri Nicko Yosafat Muhammad Gibran
Consumer, Cigarette Retail, Pharmaceutical Cement, Poultry, Toll road
T +62 21 2557 4800 ext 740 T +62 21 2557 4800 ext 760 T +62 21 2557 4800 ext 798
E putriputu@ciptadana.com E yosafatnicko@ciptadana.com E gibranmuhammad@ciptadana.com

TECHNICAL ANALYST RESEARCH ASSISTANT

Asrul Husni Sumarni
T +62 21 2557 4800 ext 780 T +62 21 2557 4800 ext 920
E husniasrul@ciptadana.com E sumarni@ciptadana.com

EQUITY SALES

DIRECTOR OF INSTITUTIONAL EQUITY SALES

Dadang Mulyana
Plaza ASIA Office Park unit 2
Jl. Jend. Sudirman Kav. 59
Jakarta - 12190
T +62 21 2557 4800 ext 838
F +62 21 2557 4900
E mulyanadadang@ciptadana.com

BRANCH OFFICES

JAKARTA - MANGGA DUA SURABAYA

Komplek Harco Mangga Dua Intiland Tower Surabaya
Rukan Blok C No.10 Ground Floor Suite 5 & 6
Jl. Mangga Dua Raya Jl. Panglima Sudirman 101-103
Jakarta - 10730 Surabaya - 60271
T +62 21 600 2850 T +62 31 534 3938
F +62 21 612 1049 F +62 31 534 3886

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 EQUITY RESEARCH
BBRI - Results update - 05 May 2023
CIPTADANA SEKURITAS ASIA

Analyst Certification

Each contributor to this report hereby certifies that all the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views about the
companies, securities and all pertinent variables. It is also certified that the views and recommendations contained in this report are not
and will not be influenced by any part or all of his or her compensation.

Disclaimer

This report does not constitute an offer to buy or sell any security/instrument, invitation to offer or recommendation to enter into any
transaction. Nor are we acting in any other capacity as a fiduciary to you. When making and investment decision, you should determine,
without reliance upon us or our affiliates, the economic risks and merits (and independently determine that you are able to assume these
risks) as well as the legal, tax and accounting characterizations and consequences of any such transaction. In this regard, by accepting this
report, you acknowledge that (a) we are not in the business of providing (and you are not relying on us for) legal, tax or accounting advice,
(b) there may be legal, tax or accounting risks associated with any transaction, (c) you should receive (and rely on) separate and qualified
legal, tax and accounting advice and (d) you should apprise senior management in your organization as to such legal, tax and accounting
advice (and any risks associated with any transaction and our disclaimer as to these matters.

The information contained in this report is based on material we believe to be reliable; however, we do not represent that it is accurate,
current, complete, or error free. Assumptions, estimates and opinions contained in this report constitute our judgment as of the date of the
document and are subject to change without notice. Any projections are based on a number of assumptions as to market conditions and
there can be no guarantee that any projected results will be achieved. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. PT
CIPTADANA SEKURITAS ASIA AND ITS AFFILIATES SPECIFICALLY DISCLAIMS ALL LIABILITY FOR ANY DIRECT, INDIRECT, CONSEQUENTIAL
OR OTHER LOSSES OR DAMAGES INCLUDING LOSS OF PROFITS INCURRED BY YOU OR ANY THIRD PARTY THAT MAY ARISE FROM ANY
RELIANCE ON THIS REPORT OR FOR THE RELIABILITY, ACCURACY, COMPLETENESS OR TIMELINESS THEREOF.

Disclaimer: This document is not intended to be an offer, or a solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell relevant securities (i.e. securities
mentioned herein or of the same issuer and options, warrants or rights to or interest in any such securities). The information and opinions
contained in this document have been compiled from or arrived at in good faith from sources believed to be reliable. No representation or
warranty, expressed or implied, is made by PT CIPTADANA SEKURITAS ASIA or any other member of the Ciptadana Capital, including any
other member of the Ciptadana Group of Companies from whom this document may be received, as to the accuracy or completeness of the
information contained herein. All opinions and estimates in this report constitute our judgment as of this date and there can be no
assurance that future results or events will be consistent with any such opinions, forecasts or estimates. The information in this document
is subject to change without notice; its accuracy is not guaranteed; and it may be incomplete or condensed.

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