CHAPTER TWO

PRINCIPLES OF PROBABILITY

PROF. S. AL-HASSAN UMaT, TARKWA,

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 UNION
S

A B

A B
PROF. S. AL-HASSAN UMaT, TARKWA,
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 INTERSECTION
S

A B

A  B = B  A; A  A = A; A   = ; A  S = A

PROF. S. AL-HASSAN UMaT, TARKWA,

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 COMPLEMENT
S

A

PROF. S. AL-HASSAN UMaT, TARKWA,

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SOME THEOREMS INVOLVING SETS

PROF. S. AL-HASSAN UMaT, TARKWA,

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THEOREMS CONT’D

PROF. S. AL-HASSAN UMaT, TARKWA,

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 ADDITION LAW
P(AB) = P(A) + P(B) – P(AB)
S

A B

PROF. S. AL-HASSAN UMaT, TARKWA,

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MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE EVENTS
B B
A

P(AB) = P(A) + P(B)

PROF. S. AL-HASSAN UMaT, TARKWA,

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 CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY
When the outcome or occurrence of the first event
affects the outcome or occurrence of the second
event in such a way that the probability is changed,
the events are said to be DEPENDENT EVENTS

PROF. S. AL-HASSAN UMaT, TARKWA,

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CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY CONT’D
The Conditional Probability of an
event B in relationship to an event A
is the probability that event B has
occurred after event A has already

PB A
occurred:

PROF. S. AL-HASSAN UMaT, TARKWA,

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CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY

P A  B 
PA B  
P B 
OR
P A  B 
PB A 
P( A)

PROF. S. AL-HASSAN UMaT, TARKWA,

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 EXAMPLE

PA M  
288 288 1200 0.24
   0.30
950 960 1200 0.80

P A  W  0.30
PA W     0.15
PW  0.20

PROF. S. AL-HASSAN UMaT, TARKWA,

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 INDEPENDENT EVENTS
Two events A and B are independent if:

P  A B   P  A
or
P B A  PB 
Otherwise, the events are dependent

PROF. S. AL-HASSAN UMaT, TARKWA,

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MULTIPLICATION RULE

P A  B   PB P A B 

OR

P A  B   P AP B A
PROF. S. AL-HASSAN UMaT, TARKWA,
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 MULTIPLICATION LAW FOR
INDEPENDENT EVENTS

If PA  B  P APB ,
Then A and B are independent,
otherwise, they are dependent

PROF. S. AL-HASSAN UMaT, TARKWA,

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 Example (Wbseter, 1998):

The Credit Manager at SSB collects data on 100 of

her customers. Of the 60 men, 40 have credit
card (C). Of the 40 women, 30 have credit card
(C).Ten of the men with credit cards have
balances (B), whilst 15 of the women have
balances (B). The Credit Manager wants to
determine the probability that a customer
selected at random is:

i. A woman with credit card

ii. A man with a balance.

PROF. S. AL-HASSAN UMaT, TARKWA,

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 Solution
.

(i) P(WC) = P(W) x P(C|W)

40 30
P (W )  ; P(C W) 
100 40

40 30 30
 P(W  C)  x   0.3
100 40 100

PROF. S. AL-HASSAN UMaT, TARKWA,

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 Solution Cont’d
(ii) P(MB) = P(M) x P(B|M)

60 10
P( M )  ; P(B M) 
100 60
60 10 10
 P(M  B)  x   0.10
100 60 100
PROF. S. AL-HASSAN UMaT, TARKWA,
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 PERMUTATION
Pn, r   nPr  P  nn  1n  2 n  3........ n  2  1
r
n

 nn  1n  2 .......... (n  r  1) 

 n  r n  r  1..2.1
n!
n  r n  r  1...2.1
= (0! = 1)
n  r !
……………………

PROF. S. AL-HASSAN UMaT, TARKWA,

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 Example 2.3

If there are 15 students in a certain

class and there are 6 theodolites in the
department, how many different
arrangements of students for the use
of the theodolites are possible?
Assume that all the theodolites must
be used.

PROF. S. AL-HASSAN UMaT, TARKWA,

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 Solution:

15! 15! 1 2  3  ....... 14  15

P615     3,603,600
15  6! 9! 1 2  3  ........ 8  9

PROF. S. AL-HASSAN UMaT, TARKWA,

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 COMBINATION
n r
C r Pr  n
Pr but Pr  r!
r

n!
C r .r! 
n
Prn

n  r !
n!
C  n

r!n  r !
r
PROF. S. AL-HASSAN UMaT, TARKWA,
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 Example 2.4
If a club has a membership of 10, how
many 3 – man committees are possible

Solution:
10! 8  9  10
C 10
   120
3!10  3! 1  2  3
3

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 Example

If a man has 2 pairs of trousers and 3 shirts,

how many outfits can he put together?

PROF. S. AL-HASSAN UMaT, TARKWA,

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 Solution
There are six outfits that he can put togethere:
N1
Shirt 1
Shirt 2 N2

Shirt 3
Pair of trousers 1 N3

Shirt 1 N1
Pair of trousers 2 Shirt 2
N2
Shirt 3
N3
PROF. S. AL-HASSAN UMaT, TARKWA,
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 PROBABILITY OF EVENTS
Example 2.5
Among a group of 200 students 137 students
are enrolled in a mathematics class, 50
students are enrolled in a History class, and
124 students are enrolled in a Music class.
Furthermore, the number of students enrolled
in both the mathematics and history classes is
33, the number enrolled in both history and
music classes is 29, and the number enrolled in
both the mathematics and music classes is 92.
Finally, the number of students enrolled in all
three classes is 18. What is the probability that
a student selected will be enrolled in at least
one of the three classes?
PROF. S. AL-HASSAN
GHANA
UMaT, TARKWA,
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 Solution
Let M= Mathematics; H = History; A = Music.

PM   ; P H   ; P  A  ; PM  H   ; P H  A 
137 50 124 33 29
;
200 200 200 200 200
PM  A  ; PM  H  A 
92 18
200 200

PROF. S. AL-HASSAN UMaT, TARKWA,

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 VENN DIAGRAM
S

H = 50
M = 137
15

18
11

74

A = 124

PROF. S. AL-HASSAN UMaT, TARKWA,

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 Solution Cont’d

PM  H  A 
1
137  50  124  33  29  92  18  175 7

200 200 8

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 Example 2.6

A coin is tossed twice. What is the

probability that at least one head
occurs?

PROF. S. AL-HASSAN UMaT, TARKWA,

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 Solution
The sample space for this experiment is:
S = {HH, HT, TH, TT}
H =¼
½
H
½ ½ T =¼ 1 4 1 4 1 4  3 4
 P(A) =

½ H =¼
T
½
½ T =¼
A ={HH, HT, TH}

PROF. S. AL-HASSAN UMaT, TARKWA,

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 Example 2.7

If a player picks 5 cards, find the

probability of holding 2 aces and
3 jacks.

PROF. S. AL-HASSAN UMaT, TARKWA,

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 Solution: 4!
C 24  6
Number of ways being dealt 2 aces from 4 is: 2!2!
4!
Number of ways being dealt 3 jacks from 4 is: C 34  4
3!1!
For each combination of 2 aces there are the number of combinations
of 3 jacks. Thus there are n = (6).(4) = 24 hands with 2 aces and 3 jacks.
The total number of 5 cards all of which are equally likely, is:

52!
N C 52
5   2598960
5!47!
n 24 6
P(C )    0.9  10
N 2598960
PROF. S. AL-HASSAN UMaT, TARKWA,
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 Conditional Probability Cont’d

The probability of an event B occurring

when it is known that some event A has
occurred is called ‘conditional
probability’, and is denoted by P(BA).

P( A  B)
P( B A) 
P( A)
PROF. S. AL-HASSAN UMaT, TARKWA,
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 Example 2.2

Find the probability that a single

toss of a die results in a number
less than 4 if (a) no other
information is given, (b) it is given
that the toss resulted in an odd
number.

PROF. S. AL-HASSAN UMaT, TARKWA,

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 Solution

Let B denote the event (less than 4). Since B is the

union of the events 1, 2 or 3 turning up we have
theorem 18 that 1 1 1 1
P(B) =P(1) + P(2) + P(3) =   
6 6 6 2

(assuming equal probabilities for the sample

points).

PROF. S. AL-HASSAN UMaT, TARKWA,

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 3 1
(a) Letting A be the event {odd number} we see that P(A) = 
6 2
2 1
Also P(AB) = 
6 3

P A  B  1 2
Then P(BA) =  3

P  A 1
2 3

Thus the added knowledge that the toss results in an

odd number raises the probability from 1 2 to 2 3

PROF. S. AL-HASSAN UMaT, TARKWA,

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 Example 2.8

As an illustration, consider the

attributes of graduates from
Mempeasem College that have
been summarised in Table 2.1.
Find the P(ME)

PROF. S. AL-HASSAN UMaT, TARKWA,

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 Table 4.1

Employed (E) Unemployed Total

(U)

Male (M) 460 40 500

Female (F) 140 260 400

Total 600 300 900

PROF. S. AL-HASSAN UMaT, TARKWA,

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 Solution:

M: a male is chosen; E: the one chosen is unemployed.

P( E  M ) nE  M  / n( S ) n( E  M )
PM E    
P( E ) n( E ) / n( S ) n( E )

PROF. S. AL-HASSAN UMaT, TARKWA,

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 600 2
P( E )  
900 3
460 23
P( E  M )  
900 45
23
P M E   45 23

2 30
3
PROF. S. AL-HASSAN UMaT, TARKWA,
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 Example 2.9

The probability of a certain lecturer arriving

to lectures on time is P(A) = 0.82. The
probability of closing on time is P(D) = 0.83.
The probability that he arrives and departs
on time is P(AD) = 0.78 . Find the
probability that he will depart on time if he
arrives on time P(DA).

PROF. S. AL-HASSAN UMaT, TARKWA,

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 Solution

PD  A 0.78
PD A    0.95
P( A) 0.82

PROF. S. AL-HASSAN UMaT, TARKWA,

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 Example 2.10

Suppose that there is a fuse box

containing 20 fuses of which 5 are
defective. If 2 fuses are selected at
random and removed from the box in
succession without replacing the first,
what is the probability that both fuses
are defective?

PROF. S. AL-HASSAN UMaT, TARKWA,

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 Solution:

P A  B  
5 4 1
. 
20 19 19

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