To: POL 569A

From: Joshua Santos

Date: 07MAR2022
RE: Deterrence against China

Executive Summary:

China and the United States have appeared to have a strained relationship in recent times. During this
time, each nation-state has fired rhetoric at one another, and they do seem to be on a collision course
toward possible armed conflict. However, armed conflict between these two superpowers would be
detrimental to their status and it would have devastating effects on the rest of the world. Many of the
issues are found in the Pacific region, but more specifically, in the Spratly Islands. However, the location
of the issues is also where the possible success lies when avoiding armed conflict. Over the last 30 years,
China has used the Spratly Islands as an area of military build-up while laying claims to territories
throughout the region and these claims will also help move their governmental initiatives forward.
Additionally, China uses many gray zone tactics throughout the Spratly Islands that stop short of causing
armed conflict or war. The United States must pursue a state of deterrence in the Spratly Islands to push
back against China and avoid armed conflict.

U.S. National Values and Interests

China has become more assertive throughout the world in its pursuit of global dominance. This has
become an issue for the United States and the current administration has acknowledged this in the Interim
National Security Strategic Guidance where it showcases China as a priority. Within this guidance, China
is seen as the only global power that has the means to challenge the United States openly and counter an
open international system (Biden, 2021). Furthermore, China needs to be held accountable in the
international systems for its disregard of court rulings. Additionally, during a speech in Indonesia in 2014,
Secretary of State, Anthony Blinken made multiple statements about a free and open Indo-Pacific. This
reaffirms the position of the United States on the Pacific region, and it specifically identifies territorial
claims in the South China Sea as an issue. In my view, the United States maintains a presence in Asia,
and pushing back against China is important due to the Power Transition Theory (Kim & Gates, 2015).
There is a sense that China is overtaking the United States in many key areas, and they are looking to be
the dominant power around the world. They are doing this mainly through economic power and trade, but
military power is not to be ignored as a major part of the Power Transition Theory is not knowing when
an attack will happen.

Relevant Background

To understand the tensions between China and the United States, one must know how it got this way
between the two superpowers. It began with what is known as the “Century of Humiliation.” This period
was from 1839 to 1949 and involved China losing territory to foreign powers (Kaufman, 2011). During
this time, China believes that they were treated unfairly by Western powers, and today they believe that
western powers still behave a certain way toward them because of what happened during this period
(Kaufman, 2011). The initiatives that China is pursuing become even more important when recognizing
that the high-ranking members of the Chinese are looking to make up for and be recognized as the great
nation of old.

At the end of the “Century of Humiliation,” China presented what is now known as the nine-dash line
map. This map was China’s way of laying claim to an abundance of territory in the South China Sea from
the Paracel Islands to the Spratly Islands. Early on this was brushed off as a historical claim with little
basis as there was no reason for concern as there was no action associated with the claim. But, as seen in
recent times, this was a major oversight by the world powers as the redemption arc was overlooked.
China would later use this map to assert its presence throughout the South China Sea and the Spratly
Islands.

Around 1988, the world began to see a Chinese presence in the Spratly Islands region. In March of 1988,
Chinese and Vietnam naval forces were involved in a skirmish on and around Johnson South Reef. The
skirmish resulted in a reported 64 Vietnamese sailors killed, 11 wounded, 9 captured, and 3 vessels
destroyed or sunk (Kreuzer, 2015). Vietnam was defending its sovereign territory while China was
exerting its claims to the region. After laying claim to Johnson South Reef, China went on to occupy six
reefs and other elevation terrains in the Spratly Islands by the end of 1988. It took China 3 years to release
the captured Vietnamese sailors as they were returned to Vietnam in 1991. These tactics of aggressive
naval assertion by the Chinese military would continue throughout the Spratly Islands to lay claim in the
region. In 1994, China used similar tactics to claim Mischief Reef from the Philippines (Kreuzer, 2015).
The Philippines decided to avoid confrontation as they saw the results of the 1988 skirmish.

As China continued its occupation of the Spratly Islands, it developed new tactics to assert its dominance
in its claims. In 2009, China introduced a maritime fishing militia into the Spratly Islands. The maritime
militia has been named the People’s Armed Forces Maritime Militia by the United States Department of
Defense (Grossman & Ma, 2020). It was not new to the world as it was developed after the Chinese Civil
War as a necessity for the newly placed Chinese government to defend its shores as they could not
compete with the world’s naval power if they were possibly attacked at the time (Grossman & Ma, 2020).
However, they had never been deployed to the Spratly Island region until 2009. This introduction even
forced Vietnam to create a similar fishing militia to compete with the Chinese. China’s fishing militia is
part of a strategic gray-zone tactic to use questionable actions that are just short of an act of war to avoid
international interference and maintain plausible deniability. Crewmembers onboard the fishing militia
are given military and weapons training and serve to augment with Chinese naval power. Recently, in
2021, the fishing militia showed its power by blocking off the Julian Felipe Reef by anchoring near the
mouth of the reef and mooring together which effectively blocks other countries’ fishing boats from
fishing the area. This event affected the Philippines, a close ally of the United States, and was a direct
threat to the Philippines’ territorial sovereignty. The imagery of the fishing militia is shown below:
(MAXAR Technologies, 2022)

The Philippines has certainly been affected the most by the Chinese claims as much of their fishing
grounds and territories in the region have disappeared with no defense. In 2012, tensions reached new
heights between the nations as the Scarborough Shoal Standoff took place. Chinese fishing boats fishing
in Philippine waters caused the Philippines to respond by sending a warship to the area to arrest the illegal
fishermen (Green et al, 2017). While the Philippine Navy was readying the arrests, the Chinese fishermen
sent a distress signal to the Chinese Navy. Soon, the Chinese Navy arrived and both sides went through
moments of moving ships away and moving ships back. Additionally, China used economic coercion at
its ports against the Philippines by blocking shipments of fruit (Green et al, 2017). The Philippines
eventually requested the assistance of the United States as the Philippines and the United States had
entered a Mutual Defense Treaty (MDT) in 1951. Though the United States questioned if the Spratly
Islands territories were a part of MDT, it did act as a third-party arbitrator in brokering a deal between
China and the Philippines. As part of the deal, the United States was assured that if the Philippines
removed their vessels, then so too would China. However, as the Philippines removed their vessel from
the area, China reneged on the deal and remained at the shoal. Consequently, this finalized Chinese
ownership of the shoal, and just a few months later China was chasing Filipino fishing boats away from
the shoal (Green et al, 2017).

Chinese Golden Ambitions

In the ensuing ten years since the standoff, China has pursued many major goals including One Belt, One
Road (2013), Chinese Military Modernization by 2030 (2014), Chinese construction in the Spratly Islands
(2014), Made in China 2025 (MIC 2025) (2015), and implementation of Chinese Coast Guard patrols in
the Spratly Islands (2016). All these goals are to catapult China as a superpower and to weaken American
influence. Not only do these goals aim to weaken American influence but they also threaten a free and
open Indo-Pacific. Attaining these goals has come at a cost to over nations around the globe and threaten
neighboring countries in the Spratly Island region.

In 2013, China announced an initiative called One Belt, One Road. This initiative would like to see global
trade essentially start and end with China or pass-through China during the process. It is reminiscent of
the historic Silk Road. China claims to be just connecting China and Europe through multiple trading
routes. But it does appear that it expands further than this geographic location when looking at Chinese
influence around the globe and what that means for trade in other regions. If China were to control the
trading routes, then it would threaten the national security goals of the United States by challenging a free
market. Again, this goal can only be completed with the complete control of the South China Sea and the
Spratly Islands.

Not too long after the announcement of the One Belt, One Road initiative, China began construction in
the Spratly Islands in 2014. Artificial island construction is a combination of creating artificial islands and
building on top of the already present islands throughout the region. The artificial islands are created
through a process of sand dredging to fortify against sea levels and then using sand to create concrete
which is placed down on shoals and other elevation terrains to make livable spaces. On top of these
islands, China has created many military outposts and operating bases. This is of note as China also
announced that they were revamping the military in 2014. Modernization of the military aspires to
modernize the Chinese military by 2030. President Xi Jinping has been quoted as saying he expects the
military to be “world-class” and capable of “fighting and winning wars.” Statements like this one indicate
that China expects to be fighting world-class militaries and winning wars against them.

The Spratly Islands are perfect for China to build up a military presence not only because of the many low
elevation shoals and atolls but also because of the location. Looking at the location of the Spratly Islands
it is near a major maritime trading route, and it can access the Pacific Ocean to the East and the Indian
Ocean to the West. This is a perfect location for forces, primarily naval, to forward operate but also act as
logistics sites for the forward-deployed troops while having access to the open oceans. Having a location
such as this is extremely important as China seeks to move its naval power from green-water to blue-
water. When trying to find a location utilized as such, a good comparison could be in how the United
States uses Hawaii. Construction and military build-up in the Spratly Islands have been swift and
massive. A nation that intends to build upon territory they do not possess and with a military that they
intend to use to fight wars poses a serious national security threat to the United States.

Under Xi Jinping, China has started an initiative in 2015 called Made in China 2025 (MIC 2025) where
the goal is to target ten strategic industries to achieve manufacturing dominance by the year 2025 (United
States Chamber of Commerce, 2017, pp. 12). The list is headed by power equipment (fossil fuels,
resources, renewable energy, etc.) and information technology (AI, ML, IoT, etc.) (United States
Chamber of Commerce, 2017, pp. 12). China will say that they are doing so in a fair, strategic, and
justified manner. But, looking at how they treat their working partners and lay claims throughout the
ocean, one will see a different side to these goals. The Spratly Island territories are extremely vital in their
ambitions as controlling this area will allow China to control major strategic trading routes and resources
needed for MIC 2025.

In 2016, China began patrolling the Spratly Islands region with its Coast Guard. This is alarming because
this again shows their disregard for their neighbors in the region. Additionally, these patrols showcase
that China considers these territories theirs and will protect them as their shorelines. Even more alarming,
they have given their Coast Guard more authority to protect those waters by allowing them to use lethal
force on foreign vessels (Trung, 2021). The law is called the Coast Guard Law and legislation was passed
on it in January of 2021 (Trung, 2021). Not only does this law push the region closer to armed conflict,
but it is worrisome when reflecting on past legislation passed by China regarding Hong Kong with the
national security law that was eventually used to militarize the area. Militarizing the Spratly Island region
and the South China Sea will pull many nations into conflict including Vietnam, the Philippines, and
Japan. This in turn will pull the United States into armed conflict as it defends its allies through defense
agreements such as the MDT. Furthermore, the Coast Guard Law is essentially illegal in the international
courts and goes against the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).

However, China is no stranger to disregarding the UNCLOS as it has continuously ignored the United
Nations ruling in the South China Sea arbitration court. This arbitration court was convened due to protest
by the Philippines against the People’s Republic of China. In the ruling, the UN sided with the Philippines
and considered the nine-dash line map from China as not compatible with the current law of the sea.
China refused to take part in arbitration with the Philippines and has continued to carry on in its
operations in the Spratly Islands.

Even after the international ruling, many nations have condemned China for continuously ignoring it, but
they have stopped short of acknowledging the territorial claims. During the entirety of the claims and still,
today, the fishing boats of the Philippines have continuously been harassed, chased, and there are several
reports of ramming. Another shocking event occurred in 2021 that I witnessed directly between China and
the Philippines where a news crew from the Philippines was chased by a Chinese Coast Guard vessel. As
the Chinese Coast Guard vessel was in pursuit, two Houbei Class Type 22 missile boats. Houbei Class
Type 22 missile boats can carry and launch cruise missiles. It appears that the attack boats believed they
were just chasing off fishing boats and did not intend to be caught on video chasing a news crew away
from the area. Given the area in which the incident took place, those vessels may have originated from the
location of Mischief Reef, a Chinese manmade island that is built to support military operations in the
South China Sea and the Spratly Islands. Seemingly with these tactics, the Chinese are growing impatient
and more aggressive when dealing with other nations in the region. The missile boats are primarily used
as coastal defense and their intent to swarm against carrier groups so why would these vessels be located
within the Spratly Islands. That incident in April of 2021 could have gone differently with a slight
miscalculation that could have pushed the nations into armed conflict. Chinese military mistook the news
crew for a fishing boat but what if they would have mistaken them with a maritime fishing militia.
Aside from the rise of China and its bullying tactics to become the dominant power. Relations between
China and the United States have been on bad terms for a little while now. Both nations throw rhetoric at
each other and place blame on each other for happenings around the world. However, China has had a
long history of espionage through government, academic, agricultural, military, and industrial means to
copy American ingenuity and provide similar or better products. Additionally, this gives them an insight
into American weaknesses.

As China tries to recover from the Chinese named “Century of Humiliation,” they have begun to become
more aggressive in their tactics in the South China Sea and the Spratly Islands. Chinese expansion into
the Spratly Islands has affected a longtime ally of the United States in the Philippines. Filipino fishing
merchants have been harassed and hurt by Chinese expansion. During most of the Chinese expansion into
the Spratly Islands, the United States had directed its attention to two wars in the Middle East. These
American wars allowed China to take advantage of the freedom to deploy questionable tactics. China has
ignored a UN ruling that the Spratly Islands do not belong to them and has continued to build up artificial
islands with military bases to fuel their expansions. This region is important to China because 60% of
global trade and 22% of all global trade pass through the area with an estimated $3.4 trillion
(ChinaPower, 2022).

From experience, China has openly called out the United States when they keep an observant eye on the
South China Sea and the Spratly Islands. They have continuously downplayed their use of gray-zone
tactics in the region. And they have used rhetoric against the United States as they condemn a free and
open Indo-Pacific. As they have made their push to take the Spratly Islands, they have made concerning
statements regarding Taiwan. I would venture a thought that shows once the Spratly Islands are entirely in
their control, the only other piece to owning the trade route would be the control of Taiwan. Therefore,
pushing back against China in the Spratly Island region is so important.

Recommendations

The United States must interrupt Chinese ambitions in the Spratly Island region. This will stop the rapid
progression of expansion which will result in China missing its initiatives. By not allowing China to meet
its goals, the United States will affectedly push China away from a position where they could result in
armed conflict in the region. The United States can reach this position of deterrence by:
Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance

There are many different types of ISR platforms, however, I will focus on Sensitive Reconnaissance
Operations (SRO) as they are most important. SRO is defined as “non-wartime reconnaissance operations
by manually or remotely operated DoD platforms involving significant military risk or political sensitivity
and the level of sensitivity is determined by analyzing the collection objectives, means of collection, and
area of operations” These SRO missions can be obtained through airborne intelligence, surveillance, and
reconnaissance assets. The most standard type of asset will collect on adversarial targets through a full-
motion video camera sensor connected to the bottom of an aircraft. Additionally, other types of signals
intelligence sensors and moving-target indicator sensors can be mounted onto the aircraft. This allows for
a full collection through differently defined intelligence means to gather an overall picture of the
movement and capabilities of the adversary. Furthermore, SRO is conducted close to adversarial
sovereign territory but does not cross the lines of the adversary to collect. Having a small standoff is
important to gather the best and most accurate intelligence while avoiding armed conflict with the target
of collection. To a degree, SRO can be compared to gray zone tactics in that they are not encouraged but
also are short of an act of war.

Combined Military Exercises

Exercises conducted in the Spratly Islands are key to maintaining watchful eyes on China while also
preparing for possible armed conflict in the region. Combined Military Exercises can be conducted jointly
through all branches of the United States military, Special Operation Forces, and even partner nations.
Partner nations from around the world have conducted these with the United States in the region
previously including the United Kingdom, France, Japan, and South Korea. However, the most important
partner nations to include in these exercises at this moment would be the Philippines. With the MDT, the
United States and the Philippines must be vigilant in building a strong partnership in the event of armed
conflict. Additionally, this partnership will also be key in deterring China in the Spratly Islands. Another
major factor of the combined military exercise is that they allow for friendly forces to understand the
responses of China and at the same time can be used as an opportunity to collect intelligence on the
capabilities of targets of opportunity in the region.

Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOP)

FONOPs are vital to maintaining a free and open Indo-Pacific. Additionally, FONOPs are needed to
maintain a watchful presence against the Chinese actions throughout the Spratly Islands. These operations
will disrupt and challenge Chinese expansion in the region. Accordingly, FONOPs would be within the
laws of the international community because it is by international rulings that the Spratly Islands are not
owned by the Chinese mainland and open for freedom of navigation through the recognized international
waters. Like the CMEs, FONOPs can be conducted with partner nations’ naval forces to show solidarity
in maintaining a free and open Indo-Pacific. Furthermore, a ramp-up in FONOPs will successfully push
back the harassment of the Chinese Coast Guard against local fishermen and shows a unified challenge to
the Chinese claims in the region.

Speak Out Against Gray Zone Tactics

The United States and partner forces including the direct neighbors of the Chinese that are affected by
their presence in the Spratly Islands must band together and continue their vocal condemnation of the
aggressive gray-zone tactics that China deploys in the region. A focus should be made to challenge the
Chinese Maritime Fishing Militia that denies access to various locations in the region. Continuously
making the international community aware of the gray-zone tactics while vocally condemning them
around the world will not allow China to further press these tactics against their neighbors to bully their
way into an expansion of territory. Furthermore, challenging the gray-zone tactics is of high importance
to avoid armed conflict because it can only be a matter of time before China accidentally makes the
wrong challenge that either causes a loss of life or agitates its neighbors enough to strike back against the
aggressive tactics such as was seen been Vietnam and China in 1988.

Continuous Tracking of the Fishing Militia

Continuous tracking of China’s Maritime Fishing Militia is not only key to challenging the gray-zone
tactics but also to get an idea of how China utilizes them by their naval or coast guard powers. An
interesting way to track them would be through satellite imagery activity from United States
governmental satellites, partner nation satellites, and even commercial satellite pathways. In 2021, I found
myself briefing the Philippines Space Agency (PHILSA), the University of the Philippines – Diliman
(UP-D), and the Philippines Department of Science and Technology – Advanced Science and Technology
Institute (DOST-ASTI) on behalf of the United States Embassy about this very thing. The National
Security Council of the Philippines has tasked these three entities with monitoring the West Philippine
Sea with an emphasis on the Spratly Islands region to identify incursions from adversaries. I briefed the
audience in attendance on the identification of the Chinese Maritime Fishing Militia and made an
emphasis on their cabbage tactics used to suffocate a location. During this time, they requested that I put
together a plan to teach them how to read and understand satellite imagery to help them identify possible
threats in the region. According, I reached out to my vendors and identified the possibility of providing
them with a satellite training program from my company and that I could partner with a company called
Satellogic to provide Low Earth Orbiting (LEO) satellites that could give them 3cm resolution of imagery
with embedded Full-Motion Video capabilities. Something of this sort must be capitalized on to combat
the threat of incursions, build partner nation relationships, and avoid armed conflict.

Open-Source Monitoring of the Spratly Island Region

Open-Source Monitoring is finding itself extremely important throughout the world. In the intelligence
community, this is known as Open-Source Intelligence (OSINT). OSINT can be anything from media
coverage, websites associated with government or agencies, and social media. The key to monitoring
OSINT is identifying what is truthful, which is disinformation, and what is misinformation. The facts will
allow agencies and defense sections to cross with their other intelligence capabilities to build a whole
picture. Additionally, disinformation and misinformation allow those same groups to see cross-check with
their information to find out why the information is incorrect or why it is intentionally wrong. This could
be for a few different reasons including monitoring responses to the information or it could be a form of
deception to divert eyes away from what the true intentions are. All three groups are vital to building a
complete picture and should not be disregarded. Information warfare is not new, but it is rapidly
changing, and technology allows for faster dissemination of information. Technology also makes the
amount of data being transmitted vast. However, some companies specialize in OSINT, information
warfare, and data forensics.

The importance of this in the Spratly Islands is to help monitor what is happening in the region. This
allows monitoring of China by cross-cueing with other intelligence sources to decipher fact from fiction.
Additionally, you can find the disinformation campaigns being published from mainland China by the
government and their agencies including educational partners. An example of this is
http://www.scspi.org/en/dtfx/us-flying-civilian-contractor-aircraft-monitor-china.
Conclusion

The United States must deter Chinese tactics in the Spratly Island region. This must be done with action
and not with the status quo of sanctions. Only this will deter China while avoiding armed conflict with
one another. An atmosphere reminiscent of the Cold War will ultimately push both nations away from
possible armed conflict. Many see the Cold War as heightened tensions, and this is true. However, armed
conflict between the USSR and the United States never happened because both nations deterred each
other through actions. Action and heightened tensions will ultimately be the reason that armed conflict
never formulates.
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