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ﺑﻤﺎ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﺮﺑﺢ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺎﺷﺮ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺎﺭﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﺔ ﻳﺼﻌﺐ ﻗﻴﺎﺳﻪ ﻛﻤﺎ ﻫﻮ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻝ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺎﺭﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﺮﺑﺤﻴﺔ ﻭﻳﻌﻮﺩ
ﺫﻟﻚ ﻟﺼﻌﻮﺑﺔ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺧﻠﺔ ﻟﺬﻟﻚ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺍﻟﻤﻔﺎﺿﻠﺔ ﺑﻴﻦ ﻣﻘﺘﺮﺣﺎﺕ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺎﺭﻳﻊ
ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﻁﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﺑﻴﻦ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﻓﻊ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ.
ﺇﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﻈﻮﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺤﻴﺢ ﻓﻲ ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﻣﻘﺘﺮﺣﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﺔ ﻫﻮ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺮ ﻟﻠﻔﻮﺍﺋﺪ ﺍﻟﺼﺎﻓﻴﺔ ﻷﺻﺤﺎﺏ
ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ .ﻳﺘﻢ ﺫﻟﻚ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺣﺼﺮ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﻓﻊ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺎﺷﺮﺓ ﻭﺍﻟﻐﻴﺮ ﻣﺒﺎﺷﺮﺓ ﻭﺍﻷﺿﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺗﺠﺔ ﺧﻼﻝ
ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺮ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺪﻳﺮﻱ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻭﺗﺮﺟﻤﺘﻬﺎ ﻣﻦ ﻗﺒﻞ ﺧﺒﺮﺍء ﻣﺘﺨﺼﺼﻴﻦ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺠﺎﻝ ﻭﺗﺤﻮﻳﻠﻬﺎ ﺇﻟﻰ
ﻣﺒﺎﻟﻎ ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻟﻴﺴﻬﻞ ﻣﻘﺎﺭﻧﺘﻬﺎ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻴﺔ ﻹﻗﺎﻣﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ
ﻣﻦ ﺃﻣﺜﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺎﺭﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﺔ ) ﺍﻟﻄﺮﻕ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﺔ ،ﺍﻟﻜﺒﺎﺭﻱ ،ﺍﻟﺠﺴﻮﺭ ،ﺍﻟﺴﺪﻭﺩ ،ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﺸﻔﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﺔ،
ﺍﻟﻤﺪﺭﺍﺱ ﻭﺍﻟﺠﺎﻣﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺤﻜﻮﻣﻴﺔ ،ﺍﻟﻤﻄﺎﺭﺍﺕ.......ﺇﻟﺦ(
=B/C
&
. .
= =1.36
. .
ﺑﻣﺎ ﺍﻥ ﻧﺳﺑﺔ ﺍﻟﻣﻧﺎﻓﻊ ﺍﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﺗﻛﺎﻟﻳﻑ ﺍﻛﺑﺭ ﻣﻥ 1ﻫﺫﺍ ﻳﺩﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺟﺩﻭﻯ ﺍﻗﺎﻣﺔ ﺍﻟﻣﺷﺭﻭﻉ
ﻁﺭﻳﻘﺔ 2ﻋﻥ ﻁﺭﻳﻖ AW
ﺍﻳﺟﺎﺩ AWﻟﻠﻣﻧﺎﻓﻊ ﻭﺍﻟﺗﻛﺎﻟﻳﻑ ﺍﻻﻭﻟﻳﺔ
AB=P(A/P,3%,20)=7.5(0.06722)=0.50415 M $
AIC=P(A/P,3%,20)=0.8(0.06722)=0.053776 M $
. .
=B/C = =1.36
& . .
ﻧﻼﺣﻅ ﺍﻥ ﺍﻟﻧﺳﺑﺔ ﻣﻁﺎﺑﻘﺔ ﺗﻣﺎﻣﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﻟﺗﻳﻥ ﻓﻬﻲ ﻻ ﺗﺗﺎﺛﺭ ﺑﻳﻥ ﺣﺳﺎﺏ P or A
-2ﺍﻟﻧﺳﺑﺔ ﺑﻳﻥ ﺍﻟﻣﻧﺎﻓﻊ ﻭﺍﻟﺗﻛﺎﻟﻳﻑ ﺍﻟﻣﻌﺩﻟﺔ
ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﺗﻌﺗﺑﺭ ﺗﻛﺎﻟﻳﻑ ﺍﻟﺗﺷﻐﻳﻝ ﻭﺍﻟﺻﻳﺎﻧﺔ ﻧﻭﻉ ﻣﻥ ﺍﻟﺿﺭﺭ ﺍﻟﻧﺎﺟﻡ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻟﻣﺷﺭﻭﻉ ﻭﻳﻁﺭﺡ
ﻣﻥ ﺍﻟﻣﻧﺎﻓﻊ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺑﺳﻁ ﺑﺩﻻً ﻣﻥ ﺍﻋﺗﺑﺎﺭﻫﺎ ﺗﻛﻠﻔﺔ ﺗﺿﺎﻑ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻣﻘﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﻰ ﺗﻛﺎﻟﻳﻑ ﺍﻻﻧﺷﺎء ﻭﺗﺣﺳﺏ
ﻛﺎﻟﺗﺎﻟﻲ-:
&
=B/C
ﻣﺛﺎﻝ
ﺍﻋﺩ ﺣﻝ ﺍﻟﻣﺛﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺳﺎﺑﻖ ﺑﺎﻟﻁﺭﻳﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻣﻌﺩﻟﺔ ﻭﻣﺎﺫﺍ ﺗﺳﻧﺗﺞ؟
ﻁﺭﻳﻘﺔ ..1ﻋﻥ ﻁﺭﻳﻖ PW
& . . .
=B/C = =2.86
.
ﻧﺳﻧﺗﺞ ﺍﻥ ﺍﻟﻁﺭﻳﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻣﻌﺩﻟﺔ ﻫﻲ ﺍﻻﺧﺭﻯ ﻻﺗﺗﺄﺛﺭ ﺑﺎﻟﻣﺑﺎﻟﻎ ﺍﻟﻣﻌﻭﺿﺔ ﺳﻭﺍء ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺿﺭ ﺍﻭ ﺳﻧﻭﻳﺔ
ﺍﻭ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻣﺳﺗﻘﺑﻝ ،ﻛﻣﺎ ﻧﻼﺣﻅ ﺍﻥ ﺍﻟﻧﺗﻳﺟﺔ ﺍﻟﻣﺗﻌﻠﻘﺔ ﺑﻘﺑﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﻣﺷﺭﻭﻉ ﺍﻭ ﺭﻓﺿﻪ ﻻﺗﺗﻐﻳﺭ ﺳﻭﺍء
ﺑﺎﻟﻁﺭﻳﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﺗﻘﻠﻳﺩﻳﺔ ﺍﻭ ﺍﻟﻣﻌﺩﻟﺔ
-3ﺍﻟﻣﻘﺎﺭﻧﺔ ﺍﻟﻣﺑﺎﺷﺭﺓ ﺑﻳﻥ ﺍﻟﻣﻧﺎﻓﻊ ﻭﺍﻟﺗﻛﺎﻟﻳﻑ
ﻻﺗﻌﺗﻣﺩ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻁﺭﻳﻘﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻳﺟﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﻧﺳﺑﺔ ﺑﻳﻥ ﺍﻟﻣﻧﺎﻓﻊ ﻭﺍﻟﺗﻛﺎﻟﻳﻑ ﺑﻝ ﺗﻌﺗﻣﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺗﻘﻳﻳﻡ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺭﻕ ﺑﻳﻥ
ﺻﺎﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻣﻧﺎﻓﻊ ﻭﺍﻟﺗﻛﺎﻟﻳﻑ ،ﻓﺎﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺭﻕ ﺍﻛﺑﺭ ﺍﻭ ﻳﺳﺎﻭﻱ ﺍﻟﺻﻔﺭ ﻓﺎﻥ ﺫﻟﻙ ﻣﺅﺷﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺟﺩﻭﻯ
ﺍﻟﻣﺷﺭﻭﻉ ﺍﻣﺎ ﺍﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻥ ﺳﺎﻟﺑﺎ ﻓﺎﻧﻪ ﻳﺩﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻥ ﺗﻛﺎﻟﻳﻑ ﺍﻟﻣﺷﺭﻭﻉ ﺍﻛﺑﺭ ﻣﻥ ﺻﺎﻓﻲ ﻣﻧﺎﻓﻌﻪ ﻓﻼ ﻳﺟﺏ
ﺍﺧﺗﻳﺎﺭﻩ
)B‐C=B‐D‐(IC+O&M
ﺍﻋﺩ ﺣﻝ ﺍﻟﻣﺛﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺳﺎﺑﻖ ﻭﺍﺣﺳﺏ ﺍﻟﻔﺭﻕ ﺑﻳﻥ ﺻﺎﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻣﻧﺎﻓﻊ ﻭﺍﻟﺗﻛﺎﻟﻳﻑ ﻭﻫﻝ ﺍﻟﻣﺷﺭﻭﻉ ﻣﺟﺩﻱ ﺍﻡ ﻻ؟
)B‐C=B‐D‐(IC+O&M
=0.50415‐0.125‐(0.05377+0.225)=0.10038M $
ﺑﻣﺎ ﺍﻥ ﺍﻟﻔﺭﻕ ﻣﻭﺟﺏ ﻳﻌﻧﻲ ﻗﺑﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﻣﺷﺭﻭﻉ
ﺍﺳﺗﺧﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﻧﺳﺑﺔ ﺑﻳﻥ ﺍﻟﻣﻧﺎﻓﻊ ﻭﺍﻟﺗﻛﺎﻟﻳﻑ ﻟﻠﻣﻔﺎﺿﻠﺔ ﺑﻳﻥ ﻣﻘﺗﺭﺣﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻣﺷﺎﺭﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﺔ
ﺗﺗﻡ ﺍﻟﻣﻔﺎﺿﻠﺔ ﺑﻳﻥ ﻣﻘﺗﺭﺣﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻣﺷﺎﺭﻳﻊ ﺣﻳﺙ ﻳﺗﻡ ﺍﺧﺗﻳﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻣﻘﺗﺭﺡ ﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﻳﺣﻘﻖ ﺍﻛﺑﺭ ﻧﺳﺑﺔ ﺑﻳﻥ ﺍﻟﻣﻧﺎﻓﻊ ﻭﺍﻟﺗﻛﺎﻟﻳﻑ
ﻣﺛﺎﻝ-:
ﺗﻌﺗﺯﻡ ﺍﺣﺩ ﺷﺭﻛﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻧﻔﻁ ﺍﻟﻛﺑﺭﻯ ﺍﻗﺎﻣﺔ ﻣﺻﻔﺎﺓ ﻟﺗﻛﺭﻳﺭ ﺍﻟﻧﻔﻁ ﻣﻊ ﻣﻳﻧﺎء ﺧﺎﺹ ﻟﻠﻣﺻﻔﺎﺓ ﻟﺷﺣﻥ ﺍﻟﻧﻔﻁ ﺍﻟﺧﺎﻡ ﻭﻣﻧﺗﺟﺎﺗﻪ
ﺍﻟﻣﻛﺭﺭﺓ .ﺗﻘﺩﻡ ﻗﺳﻡ ﺍﻟﺗﺻﻣﻳﻡ ﺑﻣﻘﺗﺭﺣﻳﻥ ﺍﺣﺩﻫﻣﺎ ﺑﻣﻭﻗﻊ ﻗﺭﺏ ﺍﻟﻣﺩﻳﻧﺔ Aﻭﺍﻟﺛﺎﻧﻲ ﺑﻣﻭﻗﻊ ﺍﺧﺭ ﺑﺎﻟﻘﺭﺏ ﻣﻥ ﺍﻟﻣﺩﻳﻧﺔ B
ﻭﺍﻟﺟﺩﻭﻝ ﺍﺩﻧﺎﻩ ﻳﻭﺿﺢ ﺗﻔﺎﺻﻳﻝ ﺗﻘﺩﻳﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺧﺑﺭﺍء ﺑﺎﻟﺷﺭﻛﺔ ﻟﻠﻣﻘﺗﺭﺣﻳﻥ .ﻓﺎﺫﺍ ﻋﻠﻣﺕ ﺍﻥ ﻣﻌﺩﻝ ﺍﻟﺭﺑﺢ ﺍﻟﺳﻧﻭﻱ ﻫﻭ %6
ﻭﺍﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﻣﺭ ﺍﻟﻣﻘﺩﺭ ﻟﻠﻣﺻﻔﺎﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻣﻭﻗﻌﻳﻥ ﻫﻭ 15ﺳﻧﺔ.ﺑﺎﺳﺗﺧﺩﺍﻡ ﺗﺣﻠﻳﻝ ﺍﻟﻣﻧﺎﻓﻊ ﻭﺍﻟﺗﻛﺎﻟﻳﻑ ﺍﻭﺟﺩ ﺑﺎﻱ ﺍﻟﻣﻭﻗﻌﻳﻥ ﻳﺟﺏ ﺍﻥ
ﺗﻘﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﻣﺻﻔﺎﺓ.
ﺍﻟﻣﻭﻗﻊ ﺗﻛﺎﻟﻳﻑ ﺍﻻﻧﺷﺎء ﺍﻻﻭﻟﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﻣﻧﺎﻓﻊ ﺍﻟﺳﻧﻭﻳﺔ ﺍﻻﺿﺭﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺳﻧﻭﻳﺔ ﺗﻛﺎﻟﻳﻑ ﺍﻟﺗﺷﻐﻳﻝ
ﻭﺍﻟﺻﻳﺎﻧﺔ ﺍﻟﺳﻧﻭﻳﺔ
A 120X106$ 21X106$ 1.5X106$ 3.8X106$
B 130X106$ 24.5X106$ 0.85X106$ 4.25X106$
ﺣﺳﺎﺏ ﻧﺳﺑﺔ ﺍﻟﻣﻧﺎﻓﻊ ﻭﺍﻟﺗﻛﺎﻟﻳﻑ ﻟﻠﻣﺷﺭﻭﻉ A
&
=B/C
ﺗﻛﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﻻﺳﺗﺛﻣﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺳﻧﻭﻳﺔ
AIC=P(A/P,6%,15)=120X106$(0.10296)=12.35520X106$
. .
=B/C =1.27
.
ﺣﺳﺎﺏ ﻧﺳﺑﺔ ﺍﻟﻣﻧﺎﻓﻊ ﻭﺍﻟﺗﻛﺎﻟﻳﻑ ﻟﻠﻣﺷﺭﻭﻉ B
ﺗﻛﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﻻﺳﺗﺛﻣﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺳﻧﻭﻳﺔ
AIC=P(A/P,6%,15)=130X106$(0.10296)=13.3848X106$
. . .
=B/C =1.45
.
ﺣﻳﺙ ﺍﻥ ﻧﺳﺑﺔ ﺍﻟﻣﻧﺎﻓﻊ ﻟﻠﺗﻛﺎﻟﻳﻑ ﻟﻠﻣﻭﻗﻊ B ﺍﻛﺑﺭ ﻓﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﻣﺷﺭﻭﻉ ﻳﺟﺏ ﺍﻥ ﻳﻘﺎﻡ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻣﻭﻗﻊ B
ﻣﺛﺎﻝ
ﻳﺭﺍﺩ ﺍﻧﺷﺎء ﻁﺭﻳﻖ ﺗﺭﺑﻁ ﺑﻳﻥ ﻣﺩﻳﻧﺗﻳﻥ ﺍﻟﻣﺳﺎﻓﺔ ﺑﻳﻧﻬﻣﺎ ﺗﻌﺗﻣﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺳﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻁﺭﻳﻖ ،ﻓﻔﻲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﺗﻧﻔﻳﺩ ﺍﻟﻁﺭﻳﻖ ﻁﺑﻘﺎ
ﻟﻠﻣﺳﺎﺭ Xﻓﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﻣﺳﺎﻓﺔ ﺗﻛﻭﻥ 400ﻛﻡ ،ﻭﻟﻛﻥ ﻳﺗﻁﻠﺏ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻣﺳﺎﺭ ﺗﻧﻔﻳﺩ ﻋﺩﺩ 3ﺟﺳﻭﺭ ﺧﺭﺳﺎﻧﻳﺔ ﻭﺣﻔﺭ ﻧﻔﻖ ﻓﻲ
ﺟﺑﻝ ﺑﻣﺳﺎﻓﺔ 150ﻛﻡ ،ﺍﻣﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﺗﻧﻔﻳﺩ ﺍﻟﻁﺭﻳﻖ ﻁﺑﻘﺎ ﻟﻠﻣﺳﺎﺭ Yﻓﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﻣﺳﺎﻓﺔ ﺗﺑﻠﻎ 550ﻛﻡ ﻭﻳﺗﻁﻠﺏ ﺗﻧﻔﻳﺩ
ﺟﺳﺭ ﻭﺍﺣﺩ ﻭﻻﻳﻭﺟﺩ ﺣﺎﺟﺔ ﻟﺣﻔﺭ ﺍﻧﻔﺎﻕ ﻭﺍﻟﺟﺩﻭﻝ ﺍﺩﻧﺎﻩ ﻳﻭﺿﺢ ﺗﻔﺎﺻﻳﻝ ﺍﻟﺗﻛﺎﻟﻳﻑ ﻭﺍﻟﻣﻧﺎﻓﻊ ﻟﻛﻝ ﻣﻥ ﺍﻟﻣﺳﺎﺭﻳﻥ ﻭﻛﺫﻟﻙ
ﺍﻻﺿﺭﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﻧﺎﺟﻣﺔ ﻋﻥ ﺗﻧﻔﻳﺩ ﺍﻟﻁﺭﻳﻖ .ﻓﺎﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﻣﺭ ﺍﻟﺗﻘﺩﻳﺭﻱ ﻟﻠﻁﺭﻳﻘﻳﻥ 25ﺳﻧﺔ ﻭﻣﻌﺩﻝ ﺍﻟﺭﺑﺢ ﺍﻟﻣﻌﺗﻣﺩ ﻫﻭ % 6
ﻣﺭﻛﺏ ﺳﻧﻭﻱ ،ﻓﻣﺎ ﻫﻭ ﺍﻟﻣﺳﺎﺭ ﺍﻻﻓﺿﻝ ﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﻳﺟﺏ ﺍﻥ ﺗﻧﻔﺩ ﺑﻪ ﺍﻟﻁﺭﻳﻖ ﺍﻟﺭﺍﺑﻁﺔ ﺑﻳﻥ ﺍﻟﻣﺩﻳﻧﺗﻳﻥ؟
=(B/C) &
ﻟﻠﻣﺳﺎﺭ x
𝐴𝐷 =2.5X106(0.07823)=0.195575X106
𝐴𝐼𝐶 = 18X106(0.07823)=1.40814X106