Philosophy 1230: Bonus Content: Causal Reasoning

Reasoning and Critical Thinking Mill’s Methods

Bonus Content: Causal Reasoning

Reasoning and Critical Thinking (Philosophy 1230)
Angela Mendelovici

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Mill’s methods
• Philosopher John Stuart Mill (1806-1873) proposed five
rules for determining the causes of events.
1. The method of agreement
2. The method of difference
3. The joint method
4. The method of concomitant variations
5. The method of residues

1. The method of agreement

If two or more situations in which there is an effect E have only one

antecedent event, C, in common, then C is the cause of E.

• Look for a common factor in the situations leading to E; this common factor
is likely to be the cause of E.
• Example:
• We notice that all AIDS patients we have checked have HIV. We conclude that HIV
causes AIDS.

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Philosophy 1230: Bonus Content: Causal Reasoning
Reasoning and Critical Thinking Mill’s Methods

Example
• Suppose you and your family go out to eat and all get sick. We can use the method of
agreement to decide which food was to blame.

(S05)

Example
• Suppose you and your family go out to eat and all get sick. We can use the method of
agreement to decide which food was to blame.

(S05)

2. The method of difference

If there are two cases, one in which E occurs and one in which E does not
occur, and the only difference between the antecedent conditions of these
two cases is that C occurred in the case in which E occurred, then C is the
cause of E.

• Look for an event present in situations in which E occurs and absent in those in
which it does not; this event is likely to be the cause of E.
• Example:
• You want to know if a snake venom antidote really works, so you inject snake venom
into two chickens and the antidote into only one of them. If the chicken without the
antidote gets sick but the one with the antidote does not, this is evidence that the
antidote works.

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Philosophy 1230: Bonus Content: Causal Reasoning
Reasoning and Critical Thinking Mill’s Methods

Example
• Suppose you and your family go out to eat and everyone except you gets sick. We can
use the method of difference to decide which food was to blame.

(S05)

Example
• Suppose you and your family go out to eat and everyone except you gets sick. We can
use the method of difference to decide which food was to blame.

(S05)

• A controlled experiment is one in which we set up two

Controlled situations that are as similar as possible except that they
differ with respect to one factor, C.
experiments • If we observe an effect in the situation with C but not the
other situation, we conclude that C caused the effect.

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Philosophy 1230: Bonus Content: Causal Reasoning
Reasoning and Critical Thinking Mill’s Methods

Controlled experiments: an example

• Suppose we want to know whether a certain fertilizer makes

plants grow faster.
• We might set up a controlled experiment in which two plants
that are as similar as possible are grown in the same
circumstances, except that we give the fertilizer to one but not
the other.
• If the plant with the fertilizer grows faster, then we can
conclude that the fertilizer caused it to grow faster.
• This is an example of a controlled experiment. It uses Mill’s
method of difference to conclude that the fertilizer caused the
plant to grow faster.

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3. The joint method

If C is the only candidate cause such that (1) it is present when E occurs
and (2) it is absent when E does not occur, then C causes E.

• The joint method effectively combines the methods of agreement and

difference.
• Sometimes the methods of agreement and difference cannot be used alone
to yield an answer, e.g., because there are multiple candidate causes that
occur when the effect occurs or multiple differences between cases in which
the effect occurs and does not occur. But the joint method can still
sometimes yield an answer.
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Example
• Suppose you and your family go out to eat and everyone except you gets sick. The methods of
agreement and disagreement can’t determine a cause on their own, but the joint method can.

(S05)

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Philosophy 1230: Bonus Content: Causal Reasoning
Reasoning and Critical Thinking Mill’s Methods

Example
• Suppose you and your family go out to eat and everyone except you gets sick. The methods of
agreement and disagreement can’t determine a cause on their own, but the joint method can.

(S05)

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Example
• Suppose you and your family go out to eat and everyone except you gets sick. The methods of
agreement and disagreement can’t determine a cause on their own, but the joint method can.

(S05)

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4. The method of concomitant variations

If variation in some factor C is followed by variation in an effect E, then C is

the cause of E. (Lau text, p. 128)

• If varying the quantity or quality of a candidate cause C makes the effect E

vary too, then it is likely that C is the cause of E.
• Example: Suppose that the more viral particles someone is exposed to, the
more severe their illness. This suggests that exposure to the virus causes the
illness.

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Philosophy 1230: Bonus Content: Causal Reasoning
Reasoning and Critical Thinking Mill’s Methods

Example

• Suppose you felt a little bit sick after eating one oyster, your sister felt really sick after
eating a four oysters, and your dad fell critically ill after eating 10 oysters.
• This suggests that oysters are the cause of the illness (even if everyone ate all the same
foods).

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5. The method of residues

If a set of conditions causes a range of effects and some of the effects can
be explained by some of the earlier conditions, then the remaining effects
are caused by the other remaining conditions. (Lau text, p. 129)

• Basically, it’s a method of elimination. Eliminate all the other options whose
effects are accounted for and the option that remains (the “residue”) is your
cause.

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5. The method of residues

If a set of conditions causes a range of effects and some of the effects can
be explained by some of the earlier conditions, then the remaining effects
are caused by the other remaining conditions. (Lau text, p. 129)

• Example:
Suppose you know that tomatoes make your mouth itchy and that grapes give you
headaches. You eat tomatoes, grapes, and cucumbers. You get an itchy mouth, a
headache, and a stomachache. Some of these effects are caused by the tomatoes
and grapes, but some effects remain unexplained, namely the stomachache. It is
likely that the cucumber caused the stomachache.

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Philosophy 1230: Bonus Content: Causal Reasoning
Reasoning and Critical Thinking Mill’s Methods

Limitations of Mill’s Method

• The rules do not tell us which candidate causes to consider––we have to

come up with our candidates ourselves.
• The rules assume that the effect has a single cause rather than a
combination of causes,
• More generally, Mill’s method provides heuristics or rules of thumb; they
are not guaranteed to succeed.

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Example
• Suppose you and your family go out to eat and all get sick. We can use the method of
agreement to decide which food was to blame.
• But the method does do anything to help rule out the alternative hypothesis that everyone
caught an airborne virus while waiting to be seated. Mill’s methods do not tell us which
causes we need to consider in the first place.

(S05)

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Example
• Suppose you and your family go out to eat and all get sick. We can use the method of
agreement to decide which food was to blame.
• Another possibility that we haven’t ruled out is that the effect has multiple distinct causes––
perhaps the beef made Sister sick, the salad made you sick, the salad and noodles made Dad
sick, and the beef, salad, and noodles made Mum sick.

(S05)

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Philosophy 1230: Bonus Content: Causal Reasoning
Reasoning and Critical Thinking Mill’s Methods

The End
Thank you!

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