POISSON DISTRIBUTION

BANGALORE INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY

Department of Mathematics
Engineering Mathematics – IV (18MAT41)
Module 3: Probability distributions

Poisson distribution:
Poisson distribution is a discrete probability distribution which is suitable for rare events for
which probability of occurrence ‘p’ is very small and the number of trials ‘n’ is very large.
Example:
1. Number of printing mistakes per page.
2. Number of accidents on a highway
3. Number of bad cheques in a bank.
Applications:
1. The number of phones calls at a call centre.
2. The number of times a web server is accessed per min.
3. The number of computer failures per unit time.
4. The number of typing errors in form.
Note:
When ‘n’ is equal to or greater than 20 and ‘p’ is equal to or less than 0.05 we make use of
Poisson distribution.

Poisson distribution function:

m x em
Poisson distribution function is given by P  X  x   , where m  n p is a fixed constant.
x!

X 0 1 2 3 4 ………….

P X  x e m me m m2 e m m3 e  m m4 e m ………….
2! 3! 4!


m 2 e m m 3 e m m 4 e m
Consider  P X  x   e
x0
m
 me m

2!

3!

4!
 .......... ..

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 m2 m3 m4 
 e  m 1  m     ......... 
 2 ! 3! 4! 
=e
m
e  m

 P X  x   1
x0

Mean and Standard deviation of Poisson distribution

Let us consider the random variables and its corresponding probabilities as follows

X 0 1 2 3 4 ………….

P X  x e m me m m2 e m m3 e  m m4 e m ………….
2! 3! 4!


Mean =  =  x P X  x 
x0

2m 2 e  m 3m 3 e  m 4m 4 e  m
  = 0e  m  m e  m     .......... ..
2! 3! 4!
 = e m 0  m  2 m  3 m  4 m  .........
2 3 4
  
 2! 3! 4! 

m  m 2 m3 
= e m 0  1  m    ......... 
 2 ! 3! 

  = e  m m e m 
Mean= m


Variance = V=  x P X  x   
x0
2 2

1
  
Consider  x 2 P X  x  =
x0
 xx  1P X  x    x P X  x 
x0 x0

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 POISSON DISTRIBUTION

 m 2.1.m 2 e  m 3.2.m 3 e  m 4.3.m 4 e  m 

   
0 e  0 m e m
     .........   
 2! 3! 4! 
 m 2  m2 m3 
= e m 1  m    .........   
  2! 3! 

m 2
= e m e
m
  
 x P X  x  = m  

2 2

x0

Substituting in equation 1
 
Variance = V= m 2   -  2

V= m  m - m
2 2

V= m
Standard deviation= V  m

Problems:
1. The probability that an individual suffers a bad reaction from an injection is 0.001.
Find the probability that out of 2000 individuals (a) exactly 3 (b) more than 2 will
suffer from a bad reaction.

Solution. X = Number of individual suffers a bad reaction out of 2000.

i.e., X  0,1, 2, 3, 4.......... ..2000

p = probability of individual suffers a bad reaction = 0.001

n = 2000

m  n p  (2000)(0.001)  2

m x em 2x e2
P X  x   
x! x!

23 e  2
a) P(exactly 3 will suffer a bad reaction) = P X  3   0.1804
3!
b) P(more than 2 will suffer a bad reaction) = P X  2 1  P X  2  0.3233

2. Given that 2% of the fuses manufactured by a firm are defective. Find the

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probability that a box containing 200 fuses has (i) no defective fuses (ii) 3 or more
defective fuses (iii) at least one defective fuse.

Solution. X = Number of fuses that are defective in a box out of 200 fuses.

i.e., X  0,1, 2, 3, 4.......... ..200

p = probability that a fuse is defective = 2%  0.02

n = 200

m  n p  (200)(0.02)  4

m x em 4x e4
P X  x   
x! x!

40 e 4
i)P(containing no defective fuses) = P X  0    0.0183
0!

ii) P (containing 3 or more defective fuses) = P X  3 1  P X  3  0.762

iii) P (containing at least one defective fuses) = P  X  1  1  P  X  1 =0.9817

3. A car hire firm has 2 cars which it hires out day by day. The demand for a car on
each day is distributed with nean 1.5. Calculate the probability that on a certain
randomly chosen day (i) neither car is used ii) some demand is refused

Solution. X = Number of demands for the cars on a day i.e., X  0,1, 2, 3, 4.......... .

m  n p  1.5

m x e  m 1.5 x e  1.5
P X  x   
x! x!

1.5 0 e 1.5
i) P (neither car is used) = P (no car is used) = P X  0  =0.2231
0!

ii) P (some demand is fused) = P(demand is more than the number of cars)

= P X  2 1  P X  2 =0.1912

4. Alpha particles are emitted by a radioactive source at an average of 5 emissions in

20 minutes. What is the probability that there will be (i) exactly two emissions (ii) at

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 POISSON DISTRIBUTION

least two emissions.

Solution. X = Number of alpha particles emissions by alpha particles.

i.e., X  0,1, 2, 3, 4.......... ..

mn p 5

m x em 5x e5
P X  x   
x! x!

52 e  5
i)P(exactly 2 alpha particles emissions) = P X  2    0.0842
2!

ii) P (at least 2 alpha particles emissions) = P X  2 1  P X  2  0.9596

5. In a certain factory turning out razor blade, there is a small chance of 0.002 for any
blade to be defective. The blades are supplied in packets of 10. Calculate the
approximate number of packets containing no defective, one defective and two
defective blades respectively in a consignment of 10,000 packets.

Solution. X = Number of defective blades in a packet of 10.

i.e., X  0,1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9,10

p = probability of defective blades = 0.002

n = 10

m  n p  (10)(0.002)  0.02

Probability of defective blades in a packet of 10 is

m x e  m 0.02 x e  0.02
P X  x   
x! x!

0.02 0 e  0.02
i)P(containing no defective blade) = P X  0    e  0.02
0!

Number of packets containing no defective blades out of 10000 packets is (10,000)( e  0.02 ) =
9802 packets.

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 POISSON DISTRIBUTION

0.021 e  0.02
ii) P (containing one defective blade) = P X  1 
1!

Number of packets containing one defective blade out of 10000 packets is (10,000)(
0.021 e  0.02
) = 196 packets.
1!

0.02 2 e  0.02
iii) P (containing two defective blade) = P X  2  
2!

Number of packets containing two defective blades out of 10000 packets is (10,000)(
0.022 e  0.02
) = 2 packets.
2!

6. A certain screw making machine has a chance of producing 2 defectives out of 100.
The screws are packed in boxes of 100.Find the approximate number of boxes
containing i) no defective screws ii) one defective screw iii) two defective screws in a
consignment of 5,000 boxes.

Solution. X = Number of defective screws in a box of 100.

i.e., X  0,1, 2, 3, 4, 5.......... ...,100

p = probability of defective screws = 0.02

n = 100

m  n p  (10)(0.02)  0.2

m x e  m 0.2 x e  0.2
Probability of defective screws in a box of 100 is P X  x   
x! x!

0.2 0 e  0.2
i)P(containing no defective screw) = P X  0    e  0.2
0!

Number of packets containing no defective screw out of 5,000 packets is (5000)( e  0.2 ) =
4094 boxes.

0.21 e  0.2
ii) P (containing one defective screw) = P X  1  =0.1637
1!

Number of packets containing no defective screw out of 5,000 packets is (5000)( 0.1637) =
819 boxes.

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 POISSON DISTRIBUTION

0.2 2 e  0.2
iii) P (containing two defective screws) = P X  2   =0.0164
2!

Number of packets containing no defective screw out of 5,000 packets is (5000)( 0.0164) =
82 boxes.

7. Fit a Poisson distribution for the following data and calculate the theoretical
frequencies.
X 0 1 2 3 4
f(X) 46 38 22 9 1

Solution.  x 10 ;  f 116 ;  xf 113

Mean of frequency distribution is given by  =

x f 
113
 0.9741
f 116

m x e  m 0.9741x e  0.9741
Probability distribution is given by P X  x   
x! x!

Theoretical frequency F  X  x    f  P X  x 

 0.9741x e  0.9741 
F  X  x   116  
 x! 

 0.97410 e  0.9741 
F  X  0  116    43.7937
 0! 

 0.97411 e  0.9741 
F  X  1  116    42.62594
 1! 

 0.97412 e  0.9741 
F  X  2  116    20.7773
 2! 

 0.97413 e  0.9741 
F  X  3  116    6.7464
 3 ! 

 0.97414 e  0.9741 
F  X  4  116    3
 4 ! 

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POISSON DISTRIBUTION

1 Obtain the mean and standard deviation of a Poisson distribution.

2 Prove that Poisson

distribution is limiting case of binomial distribution when
n  , p  0 & n p  m (finite)

3 X is a Poisson variable and it is found that the probability that X=2 is two thirds of the
probability that X=1. Find the probability that X=0 and X=3. What is the probability that X
exceeds 3?

4
In a Poisson distribution if P2   P1 . Find P0, P3 & P X  3
2
3
5 A car hire firm has 2 cars which it hires out day by day. The demand for a car on each day
is distributed with mean 1.5. Calculate the probability that on a certain randomly chosen
day i) neither car is used ii) some demand is refused.

6 The probability that an individual suffers a bad reaction from an injection is 0.001. Find the
probability that out of 2000 individuals more than 2 will get a bad reaction.
7 Given that 2% of the fuses manufactured by a firm are defective. Find the probability that a
box containing 200 fuses has (i) no defective fuses (ii) 3 or more defective fuses (iii) at
least one defective fuse.
8 A certain screw making machine produces on a average two defectives out of 100 and
packs them in boxes of 5,000. Find the probability that the box contains (i) three defectives
(ii) at least one defective (iii) between two and four defectives.

9 In a certain factory turning out razor blade, there is a small chance of 0.002 for any blade to
be defective. The blades are supplied in packets of 10. Calculate the approximate number
of packets containing no defective, one defective and two defective blades respectively in a
consignment of 10,000 packets.
10 Alpha particles are emitted by a radioactive source at an average of 5 emissions in 20
minutes. What is the probability that there will be (i) exactly two emissions (ii) at least two
emissions.
11 A manufacturer produces IC chips 1% of which are defective Find the probability that in a
box containing 100 chips no defective are formed.

12
The number of accidents in a year to taxi drivers in a city follows a Poisson distribution
with mean 3. Out of 1000 taxi drivers find approximately the number of the drivers with i)
no accidents in a year ii) more than 3 accidents in a year.

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13 It is know from past experience that in a certain plant there are on the average 4 industrial
accidents per month. Find the probability that in a given year there will be less than 4

accidents. Assume Poisson distribution e 4  0.0183 .
14 Fit a Poisson distribution for the following data and calculate the theoretical frequencies.

X 0 1 2 3 4
f  X  122 60 15 2 1
15 Fit a Poisson distribution for the following data and calculate the theoretical frequencies.

X 0 1 2 3 4
f X  46 38 22 9 1

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