Mathematics Analysis and Approaches (HL) Extended Essay: TOPIC:-Probability

MATHEMATICS ANALYSIS AND
APPROACHES (HL) EXTENDED ESSAY

TOPIC:- Probability
Research question: Does playing on one's home ground have an impact on the probability of a
team winning in the Pro-Kabaddi League?
Essay word count- 3250
1
Table of Contents
INTRODUCTION:.......................................................................................................................................3
BACKGROUND STUDY:..............................................................................................................................5
METHODOLOGY.......................................................................................................................................6
THE x2 TEST OF INDEPENDANCE:.....................................................................................................6
Table 1: A display of the total games played both home and away, and the count of wins and losses for each
venue (observed frequency):................................................................................................................................8
Table 2: Expected Values frequency:.....................................................................................................................8
Table 3: Calculating the Chi-Square Statistic:........................................................................................................9
CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY:...............................................................................................................................10
Table 4: Team's performance during Season 1:...................................................................................................11
Table 5: Each team’s probability of winning at home ground in 1st season:.........................................................13
Calculating the average chance of a team being victorious in their home games during the Pro-Kabaddi
League Season 2(2015), given that they have already won the match:....................................................14
Table 6: Team's performance during Season 2:................................................................................................14
Table 7: Each team’s probability of winning at home ground in 2nd season:........................................................14
Calculating the mean chance of a team being victorious in their home games during the Pro-Kabaddi
League Season 3 (2016), given that they have already won the match:...................................................16
Table 8: Team's performance during Season 3:................................................................................................16
Table 9: Each team’s probability of winning at home ground in 3rd season:........................................................16
Table 11: Each team’s probability of winning at home ground in 4 th season:......................................................18
Table 13: each team’s probability of winning at home ground in 5 th season:......................................................21
Table 18: The average winning probability of every team at their respective home ground...............................27
Conclusion:............................................................................................................................................40
Appendices:............................................................................................................................................43
Appendix 1: Statistics of a team in first Season (2014):...........................................................................................43
Appendix 2: statistics of a team in second season (2015):........................................................................................44
Appendix 3: Statistics of a team in third season (2016):...........................................................................................45
Appendix 4: Statistics of a team in fourth season (2016):........................................................................................46
Appendix 5: Statistics of a team in fifth season (2017).............................................................................................47
Appendix 6: Chi Square Test: Critical values....................................................................................................51
2
INTRODUCTION:
3
When we cheer for a certain team while watching a sport, it is usually because of certain reasons such as the team
having our favourite players or the team being from our hometown. We may think that they are superior to other
teams, but this may not be the case due to a variety of factors that can influence a team's performance. These can
include the selection of players, which team gets to attack first, the condition of the court, and if the match is being
played at home or away.
The reason behind choosing kabaddi as the sport is, its equipment-less nature which may be the result of being
originated from the rural sections of India which still consist 64.61% of the population and further their poor
economic conditions despite being a developing country. Furthermore the sport becomes much easier to analyse and
since kabaddi is one of the few sports in the country with a vibrant history of up to 4000 years, while growing up in
India the sport got more relatable and hence it fascinated me to choose this sport for further analysis.
Kabaddi requires a relatively small space (13m by 10m) to be played, and the quality of a team's performance is
judged by how they move and position their bodies. Raiders earn as many touch points as the number of players they
1
Ani. "Pro-Kabaddi League Season 9 Announces First Half of Schedule." ThePrint. 23 Sept. 2022.
Web. 4 Feb. 2023.
4
eliminate during a raid2. This sport requires numerous aspects. It is a zealous game between 2 teams consisting of 7
players each: that consists of one invader, referred to as the "raider", who rushes towards the competitor’s half of the
court, touch out as many of the opposition defenders as possible, and then returns to their half without being seized by
the defenders.
BACKGROUND STUDY:
Over the past decade, kabaddi has been gaining tremendous popularity as a rural sport. The pro kabaddi
league was chosen for this investigation due to its sudden addition to the list of tournaments which has
uplifted the sport’s popularity. This has resulted in the tournament becoming more popular than the kabaddi
world cup, Asian games, and super kabaddi league. Kabaddi has gained traction in India, despite cricket
being worshipped as a religious sport. The Season 5 of this year's Pro kabaddi league drew 316 million
viewers3, with eight teams appearing for multiple states of India. Preceding 2017, the setup was structured in
such way that every team played ten matches and the top four scorers advanced to the playoffs, where the
Finalists are the top two scorers. However the number of teams has increased 2017 onwards.
Currently, the tournament is a double round robin followed by semi-finals where A and B are now the two
zones of the team structure. Therefore, there will be 15 intra-zonal matches, 7 inter-zonal matches, three
qualifiers and two eliminations. Further investigation revealed that certain sports teams have a better chance
of winning when they play at their home stadium. Statistics showed that this was the case in several sports.
In some instances, such as in football home field advantage for the last 5 seasons of the premier league has
been 45.8 percent, compared to 30.4% away4. A study like this is worth investigating since It can be used by
2
Nag, Utathya. "Kabaddi Rules: Know How to Play." Olympics.com. International Olympic
Committee, 26 Mar. 2022. Web. 4 Feb. 2023.
3
"Home Advantage in Football: How Often Does the Home Team Win?: Betting Offers." Betting
Offers | Compare Free Bets From The Best UK Online Betting Sites. 30 Oct. 2021. Web. 4 Feb. 2023.
4
Venkatesan, S. Prasanna. "PKL Becomes India's Highest-rated Non-cricket Event on TV." Return to
Frontpage. 11 Nov. 2017. Web. 4 Feb. 2023
5
sports federations, trainers, and team owners to make better decisions about the selection of teams and
players that will give them an edge over competitors in specific games. Alternatively, this analysis can also
be utilized by bookies in countries where gambling is legal. For instance, if team A has two matches
remaining, first on its home field and second on its away field, and team B also has two matches remaining,
both on its away field, bookmakers would favour Team A(if that team is capable of taking advantage of
home ground), increasing their chances of winning. The winning chances of a team can be affected by
numerous factors, one of which we will be investigating through this paper which is ‘Does playing on one's
home ground have an impact on the probability of a team winning in the Pro-Kabaddi League?’
METHODOLOGY
This study relied exclusively on secondary sources for its data collection. Each team's match data was
divided into the number of home and away matches, and Further by how many matches it won and lost on
each of its venue. The data analysis was done for a total of 8 teams from Seasons 1,2,3 and 4 and 12 teams
from Seasons 5,6 and 7 of the Pro Kabaddi League. Continuing the investigation, it was necessary to
determine if the odds of a team victory depended on whether they played on their home turf or on their away
turf. So, we conducted a x 2 test of independence to examine if a team's victory chances are influenced by the
venue where it plays. To determine whether two categorical values are independent in a contingency table,
the chi-square test of independence was used, due to its suitability for sizeable data sets. Further, conditional
probabilities have been used to calculate each team's home ground winning probability.
THE x2 TEST OF INDEPENDANCE:
H0(Null hypothesis) - winning the matchis independant of the venue of the match
H1(alternative hypothesis) - winning the matchis dependant of the venue of the match
6
The significance level for the test was set at 5%, elucidating that if the H0 is shown true, 95% of the time the
outcome of a match will be regarded as independent of whether it is played at the team's home ground or
away ground. A further result of this study is that if H1 is proved true, 95% of the time a team's home or
away ground would be dependent on the outcome of a match.
Moreover It is imperative to determine the degree of freedom( d freedom ) of the contingency table based on the
data consisting of the matches played at away and home against wins and losses. A degree of freedom
refers5 to the number of values which can vary in a study, hence the chi-square test of independence in this
case.
therefore ,
d freedom =( a−1 ) ( b−1 ) where a=no . of rows∧b=no . of columns
So,
d freedom =( 2−1 ) ( 2−1 ) =1
The chi-square statistic will be upwardly biased, because the degree of freedom equals 1, resulting in greater
than expected results. Yates' correction for continuity6 would be applied to this conundrum to improve its
reliability. The formula for Yates' Correction for Continuity is as follows:
2
(|( f 0 −f e )|−0.5 )
x 2 cal=∑
fe
f e −expected frequency
5
Frost, Jim. “Degrees of Freedom in Statistics.” Statistics By Jim, 22 July 2022,
https://statisticsbyjim.com/hypothesis-testing/degrees-freedom-statistics/.
6
“MRC CBU Wiki.” FAQ/Yates - CBU Statistics Wiki,
https://imaging.mrc-cbu.cam.ac.uk/statswiki/FAQ/yates.
7
f o−observed frequency
Table 1: A display of the total games played both home and away, and the count of wins and losses for
each venue (observed frequency):

Home ground Away ground Total
Wins 135 308 443
Loss 152 287 439
Total 287 595 882
Table 2: Expected Values frequency:
Home ground Away ground Total
Win 443 ×287 443 ×595 443

=144.15 =298.84
882 882
Loss 439 ×287 439 ×595 439

=142.84 =296.15
882 882
Total 287 595 882
8
Table 3: Calculating the Chi-Square Statistic:
fe
135 (144.15) -9.15 74.82 0.519
308 (298.84) 9.16 74.99 0.250
152 (142.84) 9.16 74.99 0.525
287 (296.15) -9.15 74.82 0.252
∑ ¿¿ ¿ ¿
The chi-square statistic of 1.546 is lower than the critical value of 3.84 for a 5% significance level with 1
degree of freedom, indicating that the data does not support the claim that the team's wins or losses in the
Pro Kabaddi League are affected by whether they are playing at home or away. This is in agreement with the
Null Hypothesis H0, so H1 should be rejected.
9
Through the chi-square test of independence, it was possible to determine that the home and away grounds
have no impact on a team's chances of winning. However Chi-square tests are limited 7 by their use of
determining which distributions are independent rather than determining whether two categorical values are
directly correlated. Therefore, the use of this test is limited. And due to the fact that this test only indicates
independence between two categorical variables, further investigation is required to confirm it.
Consequently, the investigation will be continued to determine whether playing at home increases a team's
winning chances. Accordingly, the following procedure was devised to calculate a team's winning chances
for further evaluation of the investigation. It is typical for some teams in a competition to come out
victorious in more games than the others. However, this does not necessarily mean that they have been able
to capitalize on their home field advantage. For instance, if Team A won a total of 3 matches and Team B
won 5 matches, with both teams having won 2 matches each at their respective home grounds. Of all its
wins, Team A won 66% of them on home turf, which would be considered a better utilize of the home
ground advantage than Team B. In contrast, Team B won only 40% of all home matches. Hence In order to
accurately assess a team's odds of winning on its home ground, conditional probability is used to calculate
the odds of being victorious when a match has already been won. This eliminates the need to consider all the
matches played, including those that weren't won, when determining a team's winning probability.
CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY:
In the Pro Kabaddi League, home ground winning probabilities were calculated for Seasons 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
and 7 by using the formula below:
Probability (Victories achieved in home games | Games already won) =
P (Victories achieved ∈home games ∩Games already won)

P(Games already won)
7
ML;, McHugh. "The Chi-square Test of Independence." Biochemia Medica. U.S. National Library of
Medicine. Web. 4 Feb. 2023.
10
Where,
Calculating the average chance of a team being victorious in their home games during the Pro-Kabaddi
League Season 1(2014)8 given that they have already won the match:
Table 4: Team's performance during Season 1:
Games held Games held away

home ground
Team at the team's at away ground
winnings
home venue. ground winnings
Bengal warriors 4 2 10 2
Bengaluru Bulls 4 3 12 4
Dabang Delhi KC 4 1 10 4
Jaipur Pink Panthers 4 3 12 9
Patna pirates 4 1 12 7
Puneri Paltan 4 1 10 1
Telugu Titans 4 3 10 3
U Mumba 6 4 10 5
8
Appendix 1: Team's performance during Season 1.
11
A tree diagram is an effective way of illustrating the probability of events, as seen in the diagram which
displays the Jaipur Pink Panthers’ Season 1 performance on away and home grounds.
Note- For Seasons 2,3,4,5,6,7 the probability of winning at home is determined without constructing a
tree diagram.
12
Table 5: Each team’s probability of winning at home ground in 1st season:
The probability that Jaipur Pink Panther will 1 3

×
4 4 1
=
win at their home ground given that they have
already won the match.

( 1 3
4 4 ) 3 3
× +( × )
4 4
4
The probability that patna pirates will win at 1 1

×
4 4 1
=
their home ground given that they have already
won the match.

( 3 7
×
4 12 )
1 1 8
+( × )
4 4
The probability that Bengal warriors will win at 2 1

×
7 2 1
=
won the match.

( 2 1
) 5 1 2
× +( × )
7 2 7 5
The probability that Telegu titans will win at 2 3

×
7 4 1
=
won the match.

( 2 3
7 4 ) 5 3
× +( × )
7 10
2
The probability that UMumba will win at their 3 2

×
8 3 4
=
home ground given that they have already won
the match.
( 3 2
8 3 ) 5 1
× +( × )
8 2
9
The probability that Puneri Paltan will win at 2 1

×
7 4 1
=
won the match.

( 2 1
)(
× + ×
7 4
5 1
7 10 ) 2
The probability that Dabang Delhi K.C. will 2 1

×
7 4 1
=

( 2 1
) 5 2 5
× +( × )
7 4 7 5
13
The probability that Bengaluru bulls will win at 1 3
×
4 4 3
=
won the match.

( 1 3
) 1 3 7
× +( × )
4 4 4 4
The mean of the home field winning probability for every team in first Season.
1 1 1 1 4 1 1 3
+ + + + + + +
= 4 8 2 2 9 2 5 7 ≈ 0.3650
8
Calculating the average chance of a team being victorious in their home games during the Pro-Kabaddi League Season
2(2015)9, given that they have already won the match:

home ground
winnings
U Mumba 6 6 10 8
9
Appendix 2: Performance of a team in Season 2
14
Table 7: Each team’s probability of winning at home ground in 2nd season:
The probability that Jaipur Pink Panther will win at

( 27 × 14 ) = 1
their home ground given that they have already won
the match.
( 27 × 14 )+( 57 × 12 ) 6
The probability that patna pirates will win at their
( 14 × 12 ) = 2
home ground given that they have already won the
match.
( 34 × 125 )+( 14 × 12 ) 7
The probability that Bengal warriors will win at their
( 72 × 14 ) = 1
match.
( 27 × 14 )+( 57 × 103 ) 4
The probability that Telegu titans will win at their
( 14 × 12 ) = 2
match.
( 4 2 ) ( 4 12 )
1 1
× +
3 7
×
9
The probability that UMumba will win at their home

( 38 × 1) = 3
ground given that they have already won the match.
(8 ) (8 5)
3
× 1 +
5 4
×
7
The probability that Puneri Paltan will win at their

( 72 × 14 ) = 1
match.
( 27 × 14 )+( 57 × 101 ) 2
The probability that Dabang Delhi K.C. will win at
( 72 × 14 ) = 1
the match.
( 27 × 14 )+( 57 × 103 ) 4
The probability that Bengaluru bulls will win at their
( 14 × 12 ) = 1
match.
(4 2) (4 × 6 )
1 1
× +
3 4 5
15
The average of the home field winning probability for every team in second season =
1 2 1 2 3 1 1 1
+ + + + + + +
6 7 4 9 7 2 4 5 ≈ 0.28 7
8
16
Calculating the mean chance of a team being victorious in their home games during the Pro-
Kabaddi League Season 3 (2016)10, given that they have already won the match:

home ground
winnings
U Mumba 4 4 12 9
Table 9: Each team’s probability of winning at home ground in 3rd season:
The probability that Jaipur Pink Panther will win at

( 72 × 14 ) = 1
the match.
( 27 × 14 )+( 57 × 103 ) 4
The probability that patna pirates will win at their
( 14 × 12 ) = 2
match.
( 4 2 ) ( 12 4 )
1 1
× +
7 3
×
9
10
17
The probability that Bengal warriors will win at
( 14 × 34 ) = 1
the match.
( 4 4 ) ( 4 × 2)
1 3
× +
3 1 3

( 27 × 12 ) = 2
match.
(7 2 ) (7 2)
2 1
× +
5 1
×
7
The probability that UMumba will win at their

( 14 ×1) = 4
match.
( 38 × 1)+( 34 × 34 ) 13
The probability that Puneri Paltan will win at their
( 14 × 14 ) = 1
match.
( 14 × 41 )+( 34 × 127 ) 8
The probability that Dabang Delhi K.C. will win at
( 72 × 04 ) =0
the match.
( 27 × 04 )+( 57 × 101 )
The probability that Bengaluru bulls will win at
( 72 × 14 ) = 1
the match.
( 27 × 14 )+( 27 × 101 ) 2
The average of the home field winning probability for all teams in Season 3 =
1 2 1 2 4 1 1
+ + + + + +0+
4 9 3 7 13 8 2
≈ 0.2529
8
18
Calculating the average chance of a team being victorious in their home games during the
Pro-Kabaddi League Season 4 . (2016) 11, given that they have already won the match:

home ground
winnings
Puneri Paltan - - 14 7
U Mumba 6 2 12 6
Table 11: Each team’s probability of winning at home ground in 4th season:
The probability that Jaipur Pink Panther will win

( 14 × 12 ) = 2
at their home ground given that they have

( 4 2 ) ( 4 12 )
1 1
× +
3 7
×
9
The probability that Patna pirates will win at

( 14 × 12 ) = 1
won the match.

( 14 × 12 )+( 34 × 56 ) 6
11
19
( 72 × 14 ) = 1
won the match.

(7 4) (7× 5)
2 1
× +
5 1 3
The probability that Telegu titans will win at

( 72 × 12 ) = 1
won the match.

(7 2) (7 5)
2 1
× +
5 3
×
4

( 13 × 13 ) = 1
the match.
( 13 × 13 )+( 23 × 12 ) 4
The probability that Puneri Paltan will win at
their home ground given that they have already No matches played
won the match.
The probability that Dabang Delhi K.C. will win

( 72 × 14 ) = 1
at their home ground given that they have

( 27 × 14 )+( 57 × 103 ) 4
The probability that Bengaluru bulls will win at
( 27 × 04 ) =0
won the match.

( 27 × 04 )+( 57 × 12 )
2 1 1 1 1 1
+ + + + + 0+ +0
9 6 3 4 4 4
≈ 0.1840
8
20
Note- The likelihood of Team Puneri Paltan coming out victorious in games played on
their home turf has not been determined for Season 4, as they were unable to host
games due to the filming of 'Dangal'12.
Pro-Kabaddi League Season 5 (2017) 13, given that they have already won the match:
Table 12: : Team's performance during Season 5:
Team
Games
held at the Games held

home ground away ground
team's at away
winnings winnings
home ground
venue.
Gujrat Fortune Giants 6 5 18 11
Haryana steelers 6 2 17 11
Patna Pirates 6 4 20 10
Tamil Thalaivas 6 0 16 6
U.P. Yoddha 6 1 17 7
12
Republic World. "'Dangal' Shooting Locations: Details about Where the 2016
Wrestling Drama Was Filmed." Republic World. Republic World, 22 Mar. 2021. Web.
4 Feb. 2023.
13
21
U Mumba 5 2 17 8
Table 13: each team’s probability of winning at home ground in 5th season:

( 113 × 16 ) = 1
at their home ground given that they have already
won the match.

( 113 × 16 )+( 118 × 167 ) 8
The probability that Patna Pirates will win at their
( 133 × 23 ) = 2
the match.
( 133 × 23 )+( 1013 × 12 ) 7
( 14 × 13 ) = 2
won the match.

( 14 × 13 )+( 34 × 12 ) 11
( 113 × 61 ) = 1
the match.
( 11 6 ) ( 11 8 )
3 1
× +
8 3
×
7

( 225 × 25 ) = 1
the match.
( 22 5 ) ( 22 17 )
5 2
× +
17 8
×
5

( 14 × 12 ) = 3
won the match.

( 14 × 12 )+( 34 × 1318 ) 16
22
( 113 × 06 ) =0
won the match.

( 113 × 06 )+( 118 × 165 )
The probability that Bengaluru Bulls will win at
( 113 × 13 ) = 1
won the match.

( 11 3 ) ( 11 × 8 )
3 1
× +
8 3 4
The probability that Gujrat Fortune Giants will

( 14 × 56 ) = 5

( 14 × 56 )+( 34 × 1118 ) 16
The probability that Tamil thalaivas will win at
( 113 × 60 ) =0
won the match.

( 113 × 06 )+( 118 × 38 )
The probability that U.P. Yoddha will win at their
( 236 × 16 ) = 1
the match.
( 236 × 16 )+( 1723 × 177 ) 8
The probability that Haryana Steeler’s will win at
( 236 × 13 ) = 2
won the match.

( 236 × 13 )+( 1723 × 1117 ) 13
1 2 2 1 1 3 1 5 1 2
+ + + + + +0+ + +0+ +
8 7 11 7 5 16 4 16 8 13
≈ 0.1636
12
Pro-Kabaddi League Season 6 (2018), given that they have already won the match:
23
Team
Games

team's at away
winnings winnings
home ground
venue.
U.P. Yoddha 5 0 7 4
U Mumba 6 4 7 4
24
( 34 × 13 ) = 2
won the match.

(4 3) (4 × 6)
3 1
× +
3 1 3
25
( 35 × 13 ) = 2
the match.
( 5 3 ) (5 × 4)
3 1
× +
2 1 3

( 36 × 23 ) = 4
won the match.

( 6 3 ) (2 2)
3 2
× +
1 1
×
7

( 12 × 12 ) = 3
the match.
( 12 × 12 )+( 12 × 13 ) 5
( 136 × 23 ) = 1
the match.
( 136 × 23 )+( 137 × 47 ) 2
( 23 × 12 ) = 3
won the match.

( 23 × 12 )+( 13 × 13 ) 4
( 35 × 56 ) = 5
won the match.

( 35 × 56 )+( 25 × 12 ) 7
( 3 1
×
8 2 ) =
3
won the match.

( 38 × 12 )+( 58 × 12 ) 8

( 12 × 32 ) = 4

( 2 3) (2 6)
1 2
× +
1 5
×
9
26
( 115 × 15 ) = 1
won the match.

( 11 5 ) ( 11 3 )
5 1
× +
6 1
×
3

( 125 ×0) =0
the match.
( 125 ×0)+( 127 × 47 )
( 116 × 13 ) = 1
won the match.

( 116 × 13 )+( 115 × 25 ) 2
15427
The average of the home field winning probability for every team in Sixth Season = 2520
≈ 0.5101
12
Calculating the mean chance of a team being victorious in their home games during the Pro-
Kabaddi League Season 7(2019), given that they have already won the match:
Team
Games

team's at away
winnings winnings
home ground
venue.
27
U.P. Yoddha 4 3 4 2
U Mumba 4 2 4 2

( 47 × 14 ) = 1
won the match.

( 7 4 ) (7 )
4 1
× +
3
×1
4

( 12 × 14 ) = 1
the match.
( 2 4 ) (2 × 2 )
1 1
× +
1 1 3

( 23 × 34 ) = 3
won the match.

( 23 × 34 )+( 13 ×1) 5
( 49 × 0) =0
the match.
( 49 × 0)+( 59 × 34 )
28
( 12 × 12 ) = 1
the match.
( 12 × 12 )+( 12 × 12 ) 2
( 52 × 12 ) = 2
won the match.

(5 2) (5 × 6 )
2 1
× +
3 1 3

( 23 ×1) = 4
won the match.

( 23 × 1)+( 13 × 12 ) 5
( 114 × 34 ) = 1
won the match.

( 114 × 34 )+( 117 × 37 ) 2
( 52 ×0) =0

( 25 × 0)+( 35 × 16 )
( 12 × 0) =0
won the match.

( 12 × 0)+( 12 × 12 )
( 1 3
×
2 4 ) =
3
the match.
( 12 × 34 )+( 12 × 12 ) 5

( 45 × 12 ) = 2
won the match.

( 5 2 ) (5 )
4 1
× +
1
×1
3
29
59
The mean home field winning probability for every team in Season 7 = 12
≈ 0.40972
12
Table 18: The average winning probability of every team at their respective home
ground.
Season Mean Winning Probability
1 .3650
2 .2878
3 .2529
4 .1840
5 .1636
6 .5101
7 .4097
From the above table, it is evident that the null hypothesis is supported by the data due to the
average home ground winning probability being lower than 0.5 each season (except season
6). Moreover by calculating the average winning probability of each team at their home
ground, we can observe a pattern and eventually by taking the average of these averages, the
number of errors in the data set is reduced and we can get closer to the true value. 14 To reach
a more accurate conclusion about how playing on a home ground affects winning chances in
Pro Kabaddi League the average of the home ground winning probabilities was calculated for
each season, with the results as follows:
0.1636+0.1840+0.2529+ 0.2878+ 0.3650+0.5101+0.4097

¿
7
14
"Take Online Courses. Earn College Credit. Research Schools, Degrees &
Careers." Study.com. Web. 4 Feb. 2023.
30
≈ 0.3104428571
According to our calculations, the average is significantly lower than 0.5, which means home
grounds do not provide a significant advantage to teams. Nonetheless, even though this value
shows that the home ground factor does not make a significant contribution towards winning,
it remains too important to ignore. Furthermore, there is a possibility that only certain teams
may capitalize on the home field advantage. It was wondered if the home ground advantage
was the same for stronger teams as it is for their weaker counterparts as well. since stronger
teams usually tend to win more games, Therefore the average winning probability of the four
best teams of each season was calculated to investigate if certain teams had a greater home
advantage than others, as it is possible that only some teams are able to capitalize on home-
ground benefits.
Table 19: The probability of the top four teams winning at their home ground in Season
1-
The team's name odds of winning at home turf
Bengal Warriors ¿ 0.5
Puneri Paltan ¿ 0.5
Telugu Titans ¿ 0.5
U Mumba ≈ 0.4444
31
2-
The team's name odds of winning at home ground
Dabang Delhi KC ¿ 0.25
Puneri Paltan ¿ 0.5
Patna Pirates ≈ 0.285714
U Mumba ≈ 0.42857142857
3-
Bengaluru Bulls ¿ 0.5
Bengal Warriors ≈ 0.33333
Telugu Titans ≈ 0.285714
U Mumba ≈ 0.307692
4-
32
Bengal Warriors ≈ 0.33333
Dabang Delhi KC ¿ 0.25
Telugu Titans ¿ 0.25
U Mumba ¿ 0.25
5-
Bengaluru Bulls ¿ 0.25
Gujrat Giants ¿ 0.3125
Patna Pirates ≈ 0.285714
U Mumba ¿ 0.2
6-
Bengaluru bulls 3
=0.375
8
Bengal warriors 4
=0.571428
7
33
Patna pirates 2
=0.666666
3
Up yoddha 0
7-
Dabang Delhi KC 3
=0.375
8
Bengal warriors 4
=0.571428
7
Up yoddha 2
=0.6666
3
U Mumba 0
The average winning probability of the top four teams at their home grounds for each
season:
1 1 1 4
+ + +
The average winning probability in Season 1 = 2 2 2 9 ≈ 0.486
4
1 3 2 1
+ + +
The average winning probability in Season 2 = 2 7 7 4 0.366
≈
4
1 4 1 2
+ + +
4
1 1 1 1
+ + +
4
34
5 2 1 1
+ + +
4
3 4 2
+ + +0
The average winning probability in Season 6 = 8 7 3 ≈ 0.403
4
4 3 3 1
+ + +
4
The average winning probability in all Seasons
0.486+0.366+ 0.357+0.271+0.262+0.403+0.625
¿ ≈ 0.395
7
After examining the data more closely, it was found that there was a considerable increment
in the home ground advantage for each team when they were organized in order of their
performance in each season, which was contrary to what I initially hypothesised. To gain an
understanding of why this was occurring, I determined the mean winning probability on the
home ground of the best three, two teams in each season, respectively to see if this average is
increasing further.
This analysis is as follows:
1 1 1
+ +
3
1 3 2
+ +
3
1 4 1
+ +
3
35
1 1 1
+ +
3
5 2 1
+ +
3
3 4 2
+ +
3
4 3 3
+ +
3
The average winning probability in all Seasons
0.500+0.405+0.380+ 0.278+ 0.283+0.537+0.666

¿ ≈ 0.447
7
This is an examination of the best two teams in each season:
1 1
+
The average winning probability in Season 1 = 2 2 ≈ 0.500
2
1 3
+
2
1 4
+
2
1 1
+
2
5 2
+
2
36
3 4
+
2
4 3
+
2
The average winning probability in (all seasons)
0.500+0.464+ 0.404+0.292+0.299+ 0.473+ 0.700

¿ ≈ 0.450
5
The data from tables 18-25 shows that the average winning probability for the best teams on
their home ground across all seasons is as follows.
1 1 1 1 5 3 4
+ + + + + +
= 2 2 2 3 16 8 5
≈ 0.474
7
Figure 2: A line chart that shows the mean winning probability at their home grounds for the
top 4 teams, top 3 teams, top 2 teams, and the top team.
37
The chart indicates that teams which rank highly in the leaderboard have a greater chance of
victory when playing at home, as evidenced by the higher average win probability of the top
four, top three, the top two and best teams compared to the average win probability of every
team on their home ground in each season. This implies that in addition to having home
ground advantage, a team's success is also determined by the abilities of its members,
efficient leadership, collaboration among team members, and wise decisions such as selecting
the side of the court or deciding who will launch the attack first.
Furthermore my argument is only partially validated, as the average home team advantage for
the top teams was 0.474, which is less than 0.5. As part of extensive research on home
ground advantage, an article entitled ‘A JUSTIFICATION OF THE log 5 RULE FOR
38
WINNING PERCENTAGES' was found, which discussed the log5 method16 Formula.
15
Hence to conclude my investigation, I applied the log5 method to assess whether stronger
teams benefit from home advantage. This method measures the likelihood of a team winning
when playing on their own field compared to an away game.
Following is the Log5 formula:
PA 1−PB
PA,B= 1−P A
×
PB
PB 1−P A
PB,A= 1−P ×
PA
B
PA.B = Probability that team A wins over team B at team A’s home ground
PB,A = Probability that team B wins over team A at team B’s home ground
PA = Home ground advantage of Team A
PB = Winning probability of team B away from home
Team A – UMumba
Team B – Bengal warriors
15
Miller, Steven J. "Introduction - Williams College. Log5 Wonloss." Steven J. Web. 4
Feb. 2023.
16
Pipis, George. "Predict Basketball Games with Log5 Formula." Medium. Medium, 29
Nov. 2022. Web. 6 Feb. 2023.
39
The likelihood of Bengal Warriors defeating U Mumba was determined because these two
teams have consistently been the most successful in the league over all the seasons and have
consistently outperformed all the other teams.
TABLE 26: Data Required For Log5 Formula
U Mumba’s overall winning 66

probability in all seasons 109
Bengal warriors overall winning 43

probability in all seasons 100
U Mumba’s advantage at home 24

ground for all seasons 37
Bengal warriors’ advantage at home 16

ground for all seasons 32
Proof of log5 method:
Figure 2 – A probability tree illustrating the likelihood of Team A defeating

Team B and vice versa.
40
Let A and B represent the probability that Team A and Team B will win their
respective matches, respectively. This means that Team 1 will win a fraction of
their matches, and Team B will win a fraction of their matches.
The probability of Team A winning can be determined by taking the ratio of the
number of favourable outcomes (Team A winning) to the total number of
possible outcomes (both Team A and Team B winning).
The odds of Team A winning when they play against Team B are as follows.
P ( A )× ( 1−P( B) )
P ( A )× ( 1−P ( B )) + P (B)× ( 1−P (A ) )
Calculating home ground advantage using log5 method:
Team A – UMumba
Team B – Bengal warriors
First taking out the probability that Team A wins over Team B on Team A’s home ground =
PA 1−PB
PA,B= 1−P A
×
PB
PA = Home ground advantage of UMumba
PB = Winning probability of Bengal warriors away from home

To find the value of PB , the following equation is derived:-
Bengal warriors Overall expectation of winning=expectation of bengal warrior winning on homeground +expe
overall winning probability of bengal warriors ×total no . of games of bengal warriors=homeground advantag
43 16
×100= ×32+ P B × 68
100 32
43=16+ P B × 68
41
43−16
=PB
68
27
=0.397
68
24
37 1−0.397
PA,B = 24 × 0.397 =0.846
1−
37
Further taking out the probability that Team B wins over Team A on Team B’s home ground
=
PB 1−P A
PB,A= 1−PB
×
PA
PB = Home ground advantage of Bengal warriors
PA = Winning probability of UMumba away from home

To find the value of PA , the following equation is derived :-
'
Umumb a s Overall expectation of winning=expectation of Umumbawinning on homeground +expectation of U
overall winning probability of UMumba ×total no . of games of UMumba=homeground advantage of UMumba
66 24
×109= × 37+ P A ×72
109 37
66=24+ P A × 72
66−24
=P A
72
42
=0.58
72
42
16
32 1−0.58
PB,A = 16 × 0.58 =0.72
1−
32
Conclusion:
As part of this extended essay, the research question explored was: ‘Does playing on one's
home ground have an impact on the probability of a team winning in the Pro-Kabaddi
League’? The first step was to perform a chi-square test to determine whether team winning
chances at a particular location is dependent of the location of the playing venue. Using the
chi-square test, the null hypothesis was confirmed, indicating that there is no dependency
between the venue and the outcome of a match. Consequently, it was demonstrated that a
team's intrinsic vigour is what helps them benefit from home ground advantage. As a result of
calculating the mean home ground winning probability of the top 4, top 3, top 2 and best
team in every season, it was concluded that their odds were considerably higher than the
mean home ground winning probability for all teams in all seasons (0.3104428571). In
addition, when the log5 formula was applied to the two teams, U Mumba (0.846) and Bengal
Warriors (0.72), it was found that U Mumba gained higher advantage of its home-turf than
Bengal Warriors (0.72).
One of the limitations could be that due to their unfamiliarity with their home turf and lack of
experience compared to the previous seasons' teams, the new teams in Season 5 might have
been unable to capitalize on the home-ground advantage. Although the teams were from
different areas of the country, the players were from a variety of regions, which ultimately
ended up being a setback since the team with the most players from a single region would
have the edge at home. Another potential limitation is the application of the Yates Correction
for Continuity in the Chi-squared test for independence, which aims to counterbalance
43
upward bias. However, this correction may have resulted in an overshot of the test's actual
value and thus the value might have been underestimated. There is a possibility that the true
value of the test was sufficient to reject the null hypothesis. Additionally, some critics argue
that the Yates Correction may not be reliable due to the high values of all variables in the
contingency table17, which is typically above 10, which could negatively impact the accuracy
of the test. Furthermore, the eighth season of the pro-kabaddi league was completely held in
Bangalore due to the covid-19 pandemic hence that data was analysed for the first 7 seasons.
It may be beneficial to explore further factors that could influence a team's chances of
success, such as the selection of the courtside and the first raiding team, or the use of
defensive or offensive strategies. Incorporating these elements could help to make an
accurate prediction of a team's likelihood of winning.
BIBLIOGRAPHY:
Frost, Jim. "Degrees of Freedom in Statistics." Statistics By Jim. 22 July 2022. Web. 29 Jan.
2023.
"MRC CBU Wiki." FAQ/yates - CBU Statistics Wiki. Web. 29 Jan. 2023.
Ani. "Pro-Kabaddi League Season 9 Announces First Half of Schedule." ThePrint. 23 Sept.

2022. Web. 4 Feb. 2023.
"Home Advantage in Football: How Often Does the Home Team Win?: Betting
Offers." Betting Offers | Compare Free Bets From The Best UK Online Betting Sites.
30 Oct. 2021. Web. 4 Feb. 2023.
17
Starmer, Frank. "Some Reasons for Not Using the Yates Continuity Correction on 2× 2
Contingency Tables: Comment." Journal of the American Statistical ... JSTOR, 08 June
2014. Web. 4 Feb. 2023.
44
Miller, Steven J. "Introduction - Williams College. Log5 Wonloss." Steven J. Web. 4 Feb.
2023.
ML;, McHugh. "The Chi-square Test of Independence." Biochemia Medica. U.S. National

Library of Medicine. Web. 4 Feb. 2023.
Nag, Utathya. "Kabaddi Rules: Know How to Play." Olympics.com. International Olympic

Committee, 26 Mar. 2022. Web. 4 Feb. 2023.
Republic World. "'dangal' Shooting Locations: Details about Where the 2016 Wrestling
Drama Was Filmed." Republic World. Republic World, 22 Mar. 2021. Web. 4 Feb.
2023.
Starmer, Frank. "Some Reasons for Not Using the Yates Continuity Correction on 2× 2
Contingency Tables: Comment." Journal of the American Statistical ... JSTOR, 08 June
2014. Web. 4 Feb. 2023.
"Take Online Courses. Earn College Credit. Research Schools, Degrees &
Careers." Study.com. Web. 4 Feb. 2023.
Venkatesan, S. Prasanna. "PKL Becomes India's Highest-rated Non-cricket Event on

TV." Return to Frontpage. 11 Nov. 2017. Web. 4 Feb. 2023.
Pipis, George. "Predict Basketball Games with Log5 Formula." Medium. Medium, 29 Nov.
2022. Web. 6 Feb. 2023.
45
Appendices:
Appendix 1: Statistics of a team in first Season (2014)18:
AT HOME
Team Won Lost Tie

Match
es
Bengaluru bulls 4 3 1 0
Dabang Delhi K.C. 4 1 3 0
U Mumba 6 4 1 1
AT AWAY
Team Won Lost Tie

Match
es
18
"Vivo Pro Kabaddi 2022 Schedule, Fixtures, Results - Get Live Scores." Vivo Pro
Kabaddi League. Web. 15 Feb. 2023.
46
U Mumba 10 5 3 2
Appendix 2: statistics of a team in second season (2015)19:
AT HOME
Team Won Lost Tie

Match
es
U Mumba 6 6 0 0
AT AWAY
Team Won Lost Tie

Match
19
47
es
U Mumba 10 8 2 0
Appendix 3: Statistics of a team in third season (2016)20:
AT HOME
Team Won Lost Tie

Matche
20
48
U Mumba 4 4 0 0
AT AWAY
Team Won Lost Tie

Match
es
U Mumba 12 9 3 0
49
Appendix 4: Statistics of a team in fourth season (2016)21:
AT HOME
Team Won Lost Tie

Match
es
Puneri Paltan - - - -
U Mumba 6 2 3 1
AT AWAY
Team Won Lost Tie

Match
es
21
50
U Mumba 12 6 5 1
Appendix 5: Statistics of a team in fifth season (2017)22
AT HOME
Team Won Lost Tie

Match
es
Gujrat Fortune 6 5 0 1
Giants
Haryana Steeler’s 6 2 2 2
22
51
U.P. Yoddha 6 1 4 1
U Mumba 5 2 3 0
AT AWAY
Team Won Lost Tie

Match
es
Gujrat Fortune 18 11 5 2
Giants
Haryana Steelers 17 11 4 2
U.P. Yoddha 17 7 7 3
52
U Mumba 17 8 9 0
Team
Games

team's at away
winnings winnings
home ground
venue.
U.P. Yoddha 5 0 7 4
23
53
U Mumba 6 4 7 4
Team
Games

team's at away
winnings winnings
home ground
venue.
U.P. Yoddha 4 3 4 2
U Mumba 4 2 4 2
24
54
Appendix 6: Chi Square Test: Critical values25
Raichl, Jansen. “Business Statistics.” Business Statistics,

25
business.statistics.sweb.cz/.
55

Mathematics Analysis and Approaches (HL) Extended Essay: TOPIC:-Probability

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Mathematics Analysis and Approaches (HL) Extended Essay: TOPIC:-Probability

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MATHEMATICS ANALYSIS AND

APPROACHES (HL) EXTENDED ESSAY

Essay word count- 3250

played at home or away.

THE x2 TEST OF INDEPENDANCE:

away ground would be dependent on the outcome of a match.

d freedom =( a−1 ) ( b−1 ) where a=no . of rows∧b=no . of columns

d freedom =( 2−1 ) ( 2−1 ) =1

reliability. The formula for Yates' Correction for Continuity is as follows:

Home ground Away ground Total

Wins 135 308 443

Loss 152 287 439

Total 287 595 882

Table 2: Expected Values frequency:

Home ground Away ground Total

Win 443 ×287 443 ×595 443

Loss 439 ×287 439 ×595 439

Total 287 595 882

135 (144.15) -9.15 74.82 0.519

308 (298.84) 9.16 74.99 0.250

152 (142.84) 9.16 74.99 0.525

287 (296.15) -9.15 74.82 0.252

Null Hypothesis H0, so H1 should be rejected.

Probability (Victories achieved in home games | Games already won) =

P (Victories achieved ∈home games ∩Games already won)

Table 4: Team's performance during Season 1:

Games held Games held away

Jaipur Pink Panthers 4 3 12 9

The probability that Jaipur Pink Panther will 1 3

already won the match.

The probability that patna pirates will win at 1 1

won the match.

The probability that Bengal warriors will win at 2 1

won the match.

The probability that Telegu titans will win at 2 3

won the match.

The probability that UMumba will win at their 3 2

The probability that Puneri Paltan will win at 2 1

won the match.

The probability that Dabang Delhi K.C. will 2 1

already won the match.

won the match.

2(2015)9, given that they have already won the match:

Table 6: Team's performance during Season 2:

Games held Games held away

Jaipur Pink Panthers 4 1 10 5

The probability that Jaipur Pink Panther will win at

The probability that UMumba will win at their home

The probability that Puneri Paltan will win at their

Table 8: Team's performance during Season 3:

Games held Games held away

Jaipur Pink Panthers 4 1 10 3

Table 9: Each team’s probability of winning at home ground in 3rd season:

The probability that Jaipur Pink Panther will win at

The probability that Telegu titans will win at their

The probability that UMumba will win at their

Table 10: Team's performance during Season 4:

Games held Games held away

Jaipur Pink Panthers 4 2 12 7

The probability that Jaipur Pink Panther will win

already won the match.

The probability that Patna pirates will win at

won the match.