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John Harte
epistemological equivalent of emergent phenomena (for guide to predicting the consequences of our actions.
example, superconductivity) as understood by condensed E The Earth system is rife with feedback, nonlinear syn-
matter physicists. More urgently, the synthesis could ex- ergies, thresholds, and irreversibilities that confound our
pedite progress in Earth system science. ESS attempts to intuition.
answer questions that are at once deep, grand, and prac- E Conducting large-scale experiments on this system is
tical. It seeks no less than a predictive understanding of impossible—except, unfortunately, for those unbidden
the complex system comprising organisms, atmosphere, and uncontrolled experiments that befall us in real time.
fresh water, oceans, soil, and human society. It builds on Thus, efforts to identify causative mechanisms are be-
the basic disciplines of physics, biology, and chemistry, deviled by the conundrum that correlation does not nec-
which provide the foundations of ecology, climatology, hy- essarily imply causation. In one sense, this is similar to
drology, oceanography, geology, and biogeochemistry. what astrophysicists confront. But they can base predic-
Moreover, ESS cannot avoid confronting policy-laden sci- tions on established or hypothesized physical laws and
entific issues. then test them against future observations. For ESS,
Here are some examples of questions being actively that’s a limited option, because the future state of the
addressed by current ESS research: Earth system is contingent on future human activity. Such
How will climate warming alter life? Will global cli- contingency weakens our ability to test theory against
mate change alter terrestrial ecosystems in ways that phenomena not yet observed. Moreover, because accidents
cause feedback to the climate, for example, by causing a of history play so central a role for living systems, the
release of soil carbon to the atmosphere or by changing the Newtonian approach to prediction on any spatial scale
albedo of the land surface as a consequence of changes in often demands inaccessible or impossibly detailed data on
dominant plant species? How can we reliably forecast the initial conditions.
sign and magnitude of climate–ecosystem interactions E Attempts to carve out spatially and temporally delim-
over a range of spatial and temporal scales? ited subsystems often founder because drawing space-time
How important is biodiversity? Is diversity of life boundaries large enough to mark out an effectively closed
forms necessary for maintaining essential Earth system system entails bringing in unnecessary and unmanage-
processes such as soil formation, pest control, and climate able complexity. Furthermore, the various disciplines fre-
regulation? Is there redundancy among the multitude of quently draw system boundaries differently and commu-
species? What general patterns, if any, govern the distri- nicate poorly with one another about implicit boundaries.
bution and abundance of species, and how can we use these To add to the difficulties, ecologists (like anthropolo-
patterns to predict more accurately the effects of human gists and linguists) often witness the progressive deterio-
activities on biological diversity? ration and sometimes extinction of the objects of their
What is needed for a sustainable future? Our planet is study. Imagine if physicists had to fear the impending ex-
too small to absorb the wastes of profligate societies and too tinction of high-temperature superconductivity or the
small to permit the wealthy to hide from the poor. What, Higgs boson. Cosmology is sometimes compared to ecology;
then, might a future that is sustainable, and that we would both fields have to deal with unique events and systems
all like to live in, look like? And how could we get there? that cannot be replicated. But think what cosmology would
be like in a universe where people are artificially speeding
Difficulties up stellar death rates and moving clusters of galaxies
Several key facets of the Earth system make ESS partic- around.
ularly formidable: What are the possible solutions to these formidable
E The global scale of human activities and the historically challenges? Here are some conceivable responses that
unprecedented magnitude of human disturbance of the have been suggested by various scientists (and my con-
planet mean that past experience is often not a reliable cerns about these responses):