Actual prices through

6-Jan-2015 Table 1. Near Term Commodity Price Baseline

(In U.S. Dollars)
Actual Projections

2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q3 2016Q4
Commodities Units

Food
Cereals
Wheat $/MT 321.4 313.8 305.9 307.8 297.1 322.1 262.5 257.9 213.6 215.6 217.8 222.9 224.4 219.9 224.5
Maize $/MT 305.1 290.9 240.4 199.5 210.1 213.9 173.9 173.5 155.8 159.2 162.3 165.2 168.4 170.1 164.8
Rice $/MT 570.7 550.7 504.0 449.9 440.7 409.4 435.0 420.9 383.9 385.6 375.0 372.9 333.1 325.4 323.6
Barley $/MT 239.4 231.5 197.2 157.3 162.7 166.9 132.8 122.0 143.8 146.6 148.2 131.1 159.2 164.1 145.2
Vegetable oils and protein meals
Soybeans $/MT 532.8 540.0 516.5 479.4 498.3 540.4 421.7 370.9 370.2 372.9 372.9 365.0 367.5 368.4 362.1
Soybean meal $/MT 464.6 475.6 496.5 472.5 493.3 531.9 436.0 406.7 375.2 368.3 366.4 358.2 358.2 360.8 356.7
Soybean oil $/MT 1119.2 1076.0 960.0 889.2 877.9 899.7 757.1 716.1 707.5 711.4 715.2 708.3 711.8 719.2 713.4
Palm oil $/MT 780.3 761.0 726.2 789.4 813.7 794.7 695.9 653.3 650.7 641.3 636.3 631.3 635.3 643.6 643.8
Fish meal $/MT 1918.4 1799.6 1581.8 1542.2 1657.9 1861.6 1973.6 2192.7 2032.4 1912.0 1675.6 1625.9 1619.5 1335.2 1295.7
Sunflower Oil $/MT 1493.8 1458.9 1228.7 1182.9 1133.1 1121.5 1012.5 1054.2 1066.4 1056.9 1047.5 1039.0 1058.2 1039.4 1031.0
Olive oil $/MT 4004.9 3843.9 3761.4 3656.6 3599.0 3663.5 4122.1 4262.5 4137.1 4146.5 4194.4 4235.7 4287.3 4346.6 4389.4
Groundnuts $/MT 2091.8 2506.3 2347.1 2312.7 2377.3 2228.8 2046.8 1940.1 1969.7 1921.9 1873.8 1825.8 1942.8 1848.3 1800.9
Rapeseed oil $/MT 1196.0 1122.8 993.2 1012.8 980.3 963.1 849.6 824.4 798.1 772.0 766.6 761.2 728.1 699.4 694.5
Meat cts/lb
Beef cts/lb 193.8 181.8 176.3 182.4 191.8 195.5 252.9 256.4 236.3 233.6 230.9 228.3 233.2 212.1 219.6
Lamb cts/lb 97.1 103.9 109.2 116.4 124.1 135.4 132.8 130.2 131.0 131.0 132.3 133.9 134.7 136.1 137.7
Swine Meat cts/lb 79.7 88.4 95.4 82.6 92.8 115.4 112.8 90.3 116.5 115.1 115.1 115.1 112.0 109.6 104.4
Poultry cts/lb 100.2 104.1 106.4 104.7 104.7 109.0 113.0 113.9 116.0 120.5 123.2 121.4 123.6 131.3 129.4
Seafood
Salmon $/kg 6.5 7.2 6.5 6.9 7.8 6.9 5.9 5.8 5.6 5.3 5.3 5.0 5.1 4.8 4.5
Shrimp $/lb 11.3 12.7 15.6 16.6 17.1 17.8 17.0 14.3 16.6 15.5 15.4 16.3 15.8 14.5 15.3
Sugar
Free market cts/lb 18.5 17.3 17.3 17.7 16.8 18.2 17.7 15.8 14.2 14.6 14.9 15.3 16.1 16.2 16.4
United States cts/lb 22.0 20.2 21.1 21.5 22.4 25.3 26.5 25.3 25.1 25.4 25.3 25.3 25.1 25.4 25.1
EU cts/lb 25.8 25.5 25.8 26.9 27.5 28.0 27.8 26.3 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.9 27.9 27.9
Bananas $/MT 932.6 910.6 934.1 928.1 947.1 929.2 939.3 911.8 926.6 915.8 895.2 885.8 892.4 862.1 853.0
Oranges $/MT 825.9 1065.0 1143.9 834.4 777.4 838.8 774.1 722.6 763.9 759.1 754.7 752.0 763.7 754.5 751.8

Beverages
Coffee
Other milds cts/lb 154.8 147.7 135.6 126.1 175.8 213.7 208.4 213.5 161.1 163.8 167.5 172.0 174.3 176.0 177.7
Robusta cts/lb 109.4 103.5 98.9 90.4 102.0 107.9 106.0 106.6 84.5 85.7 87.1 88.2 88.9 89.9 90.0
Cocoa Beans $/MT 2208.8 2308.0 2469.4 2770.1 2951.3 3085.0 3229.2 2985.6 2989.4 2959.9 2937.0 2901.6 2885.6 2866.5 2860.6
Tea 3/ cts/kg 319.1 265.8 244.9 234.2 247.9 222.2 233.7 247.6 240.7 240.7 248.9 255.7 242.4 250.6 257.5

Agricultural raw materials

Timber
Hardwood
Logs $/M3 157.6 168.1 158.5 174.0 178.4 169.7 167.4 193.4 177.8 188.6 177.8 178.9 182.9 182.9 184.1
Sawnwood $/M3 278.4 315.3 307.3 304.3 306.1 312.6 308.3 297.7 311.2 304.2 295.2 290.2 304.9 289.2 284.3
Softwood
Logs $/M3 157.6 168.1 158.5 174.0 178.4 169.7 167.4 193.4 177.8 188.6 177.8 178.9 182.9 182.9 184.1
Sawnwood $/M3 278.4 315.3 307.3 304.3 306.1 312.6 308.3 297.7 311.2 304.2 295.2 290.2 304.9 289.2 284.3
Cotton cts/lb 89.9 92.7 91.8 87.2 94.0 92.6 77.1 68.7 59.6 60.3 61.2 63.3 65.1 66.5 66.0
Wool
Fine cts/kg 1362.4 1161.4 1071.6 1195.5 1114.0 1086.0 1068.1 1033.3 1033.3 1033.3 1033.3 1033.3 1033.3 1033.3 1033.3
Coarse cts/kg 1227.5 1091.8 1039.5 1153.8 1083.6 1058.7 1025.0 955.2 1108.3 985.8 939.4 1045.6 982.0 927.0 873.6
Rubber cts/lb 143.1 131.8 117.5 114.6 102.1 96.1 83.4 73.5 89.6 90.1 89.6 89.3 94.6 94.6 94.3
Hides cts/lb 86.0 93.8 95.9 103.1 107.6 109.8 110.8 112.7 115.6 114.5 109.0 107.9 112.5 116.0 119.7

Metals
Copper $/MT 7922.3 7156.7 7084.1 7162.9 7030.2 6795.3 6995.8 6632.3 6272.0 6243.2 6227.3 6213.5 6202.1 6183.1 6174.8
Aluminum $/MT 2000.8 1836.0 1782.4 1767.5 1709.3 1800.2 1989.7 1970.4 1823.3 1840.8 1857.8 1871.2 1878.5 1898.0 1905.5
Iron Ore $/MT 148.3 125.4 132.8 134.9 120.4 102.6 90.3 74.0 76.8 75.1 72.5 71.8 74.5 70.4 69.7
Tin $/MT 24037.5 20879.6 21312.4 22896.9 22636.3 23146.2 21915.2 19897.9 19675.0 19650.5 19662.5 19674.8 19689.5 20327.3 20333.3
Nickel $/MT 17305.3 14952.6 13953.3 13908.7 14661.0 18467.8 18584.2 15860.5 14805.0 14859.0 14908.7 14930.0 14936.0 14937.7 14932.0
Zinc $/MT 2029.7 1841.9 1860.3 1908.7 2026.5 2071.4 2310.7 2235.3 2200.8 2211.0 2222.3 2229.8 2231.8 2229.0 2227.5
Lead $/MT 2291.2 2052.0 2101.9 2113.9 2101.4 2097.1 2182.4 2000.9 1871.8 1879.3 1889.0 1895.0 1903.0 1921.0 1928.5
Uranium $/lb 42.8 40.7 35.8 35.0 35.2 29.8 31.2 37.8 31.4 30.3 27.0 27.0 27.2 24.0 27.5

Energy
Spot Crude 1/ $/bbl 105.1 99.3 107.3 104.5 103.7 106.3 100.4 74.6 53.1 55.7 58.1 60.0 61.8 64.6 65.8
Natural Gas
Russian in Germany $/MMBTU 11.4 11.5 11.0 11.0 10.8 10.7 10.1 10.3 10.2 10.2 10.2 10.2 10.0 10.0 10.0
Indonesian in Japan (LNG) $/MMBTU 17.9 17.4 17.0 17.0 17.8 17.6 16.5 15.1 16.4 16.4 16.4 16.4 16.7 16.7 16.7
US, domestic market $/MMBTU 3.5 4.0 3.6 3.8 5.2 4.6 3.9 3.8 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.6 3.4 3.5
Coal
Australian, export markets $/MT 99.5 92.2 82.8 87.9 82.6 77.9 72.7 67.4 79.3 74.2 66.1 69.3 80.5 67.1 70.3
South African, export markets $/MT 84.7 80.4 72.9 83.0 78.4 75.0 70.2 66.0 75.6 71.6 64.7 73.6 72.6 62.5 71.2

1/ Petroleum price is average of spot prices for U.K. Brent, Dubai and West Texas Intermediate.
Actual prices through
6-Jan-2015 Table 2. Medium Term Commodity Price Baseline
(In U.S. Dollars)

Commodities Units 2008A1 2009A1 2010A1 2011A1 2012A1 2013A1 2014A1 2015A1 2016A1 2017A1 2018A1 2019A1 2020A1

Actual Projections
Food
Cereals
Wheat $/MT 325.9 223.4 223.7 316.2 313.3 312.2 284.9 217.5 222.9 222.3 220.5 218.7 216.9
Maize $/MT 223.2 165.5 186.0 291.8 298.4 259.0 192.9 160.6 168.5 167.5 167.5 167.5 167.5
Rice $/MT 700.2 589.4 520.6 551.7 580.2 518.8 426.5 379.4 329.2 329.2 329.2 329.2 329.2
Barley $/MT 200.5 128.4 158.4 207.2 238.2 206.4 146.1 142.4 157.7 152.4 151.7 150.9 150.1
Vegetable oils and protein meals
Soybeans $/MT 453.3 378.5 384.9 484.2 537.8 517.2 457.8 370.2 366.8 363.0 363.0 363.0 363.0
Soybean meal $/MT 367.9 359.3 331.3 378.9 473.3 477.3 467.0 367.0 358.9 355.4 363.8 363.8 363.8
Soybean oil $/MT 1133.8 787.0 924.8 1215.8 1151.8 1011.1 812.7 710.6 715.4 712.8 712.8 712.8 712.8
Palm oil $/MT 862.9 644.1 859.9 1076.5 939.8 764.2 739.4 639.9 640.7 621.6 577.6 530.9 488.0
Fish meal $/MT 1160.2 1255.9 1739.2 1519.3 1624.3 1710.5 1921.5 1811.5 1443.5 1443.5 1443.5 1443.5 1443.5
Sunflower Oil $/MT 1693.6 1041.7 1186.0 1621.8 1489.5 1341.1 1080.3 1052.5 1044.4 1044.4 1044.4 1044.4 1044.4
Olive oil $/MT 4167.5 3509.3 3171.3 3070.3 3135.7 3816.7 3911.8 4178.4 4330.1 4330.1 4330.1 4330.1 4330.1
Groundnuts $/MT 1567.7 994.6 1239.4 1724.0 1688.2 2314.5 2148.3 1897.8 1871.9 1871.9 1871.9 1871.9 1871.9
Rapeseed oil $/MT 1423.7 856.2 1011.7 1366.6 1239.1 1081.2 904.4 774.5 706.6 707.5 707.5 707.5 707.5
Meat
Beef cts/lb 121.1 119.6 152.5 183.2 187.9 183.6 224.2 232.3 220.9 220.9 220.9 220.9 220.9
Lamb cts/lb 170.7 146.9 145.7 149.2 100.9 106.7 130.6 132.1 135.8 135.0 134.0 133.0 132.0
Swine Meat cts/lb 64.6 55.8 74.4 89.1 82.8 86.5 102.8 115.5 109.0 110.3 109.0 107.4 105.8
Poultry cts/lb 84.6 85.6 85.8 87.4 94.3 103.8 110.1 120.3 128.2 128.2 128.2 128.2 128.2
Seafood
Salmon $/kg 4.8 4.9 6.1 5.9 4.8 6.8 6.6 5.3 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8
Shrimp $/lb 10.7 9.5 10.1 11.9 10.1 14.0 16.6 16.0 15.1 15.1 15.1 15.1 15.1
Sugar
Free market cts/lb 12.5 18.2 20.9 26.2 21.4 17.7 17.1 14.8 16.2 16.7 16.7 16.7 16.7
United States cts/lb 21.3 24.3 31.1 37.6 28.9 21.2 24.9 25.3 25.1 24.8 24.1 23.6 23.1
EU cts/lb 30.8 26.0 25.7 26.7 26.4 26.0 27.4 27.7 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9
Bananas $/MT 843.6 848.0 881.4 975.9 984.3 926.4 931.8 905.9 872.4 856.1 848.3 840.2 832.2
Oranges $/MT 1107.3 909.0 1033.2 891.1 868.0 967.3 778.2 757.4 757.2 757.2 757.2 757.2 757.2

Beverages
Coffee
Other milds cts/lb 138.1 141.6 194.4 273.2 187.6 141.1 202.8 166.1 175.8 178.2 178.2 178.2 178.2
Robusta cts/lb 106.2 77.1 84.1 116.0 110.6 100.5 105.6 86.4 89.6 89.6 89.6 89.6 89.6
Cocoa Beans $/MT 2572.8 2895.0 3130.6 2978.5 2377.1 2439.1 3062.8 2947.0 2872.6 2575.4 2482.7 2386.3 2293.6
Tea 3/ cts/kg 269.5 314.0 316.7 346.2 348.9 266.0 237.9 246.5 248.2 248.2 248.2 248.2 248.2

Agricultural raw materials

Timber
Hardwood
Logs $/M3 147.3 136.7 141.5 150.0 148.0 164.5 177.2 180.8 186.0 182.8 180.5 176.1 175.0
Sawnwood $/M3 313.1 291.0 281.8 280.9 284.7 301.4 306.2 300.2 294.1 292.2 288.1 285.1 282.1
Softwood
Logs $/M3 147.3 136.7 141.5 150.0 148.0 164.5 177.2 180.8 186.0 182.8 180.5 176.1 175.0
Sawnwood $/M3 313.1 291.0 281.8 280.9 284.7 301.4 306.2 300.2 294.1 292.2 288.1 285.1 282.1
Cotton cts/lb 71.4 62.8 103.5 154.6 89.2 90.4 83.1 61.1 65.9 66.8 60.6 52.5 44.9
Wool
Fine cts/kg 968.2 778.5 1023.2 1638.2 1345.3 1197.7 1075.4 1033.3 1033.3 1011.1 881.4 777.2 655.4
Coarse cts/kg 709.2 611.4 820.1 1209.2 1212.6 1128.1 1030.6 1019.8 935.5 786.2 777.3 698.1 627.0
Rubber cts/lb 118.6 87.2 165.7 218.5 153.2 126.8 88.8 89.7 94.6 85.8 78.2 69.6 62.0
Hides cts/lb 64.1 44.9 72.0 82.0 83.2 94.7 110.2 111.8 115.8 114.4 113.3 113.3 113.3

Metals
Copper $/MT 6963.5 5165.3 7538.4 8823.5 7958.9 7331.5 6863.4 6239.0 6188.0 6161.3 6139.1 6116.8 6103.0
Aluminum $/MT 2577.9 1669.2 2173.0 2400.6 2022.8 1846.7 1867.4 1848.3 1892.8 1931.2 1975.2 2023.4 2076.2
Iron Ore $/MT 61.6 80.0 146.7 167.8 128.5 135.4 96.8 74.1 71.9 71.9 71.9 71.9 71.9
Tin $/MT 18466.6 13602.7 20367.2 26051.4 21109.4 22281.6 21898.9 19665.7 20012.4 20012.4 20012.4 20012.4 20012.4
Nickel $/MT 21141.5 14672.4 21810.0 22909.1 17541.7 15030.0 16893.4 14875.7 14936.2 14902.1 14907.9 14944.0 14955.0
Zinc $/MT 1884.8 1658.4 2160.4 2195.5 1950.0 1910.2 2161.0 2215.9 2229.7 2219.3 2205.5 2200.0 2200.0
Lead $/MT 2093.3 1719.4 2148.2 2400.7 2063.6 2139.7 2095.5 1883.8 1916.1 1943.9 1949.5 1949.5 1949.5
Uranium $/lb 64.2 46.7 46.0 56.2 48.9 38.6 33.5 28.9 25.5 25.5 25.5 25.5 25.5

Energy
Spot Crude 1/ $/bbl 97.0 61.8 79.0 104.0 105.0 104.1 96.3 56.7 63.9 68.0 70.9 72.1 72.6
Natural Gas
Russian in Germany $/MMBTU 13.1 8.9 8.2 10.6 12.0 11.2 10.5 10.2 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0
Indonesian in Japan (LNG) $/MMBTU 11.6 7.5 9.4 15.6 18.1 17.3 16.7 16.4 16.7 16.7 16.7 16.7 16.7
US, domestic market $/MMBTU 8.9 3.9 4.4 4.0 2.8 3.7 4.4 3.1 3.5 3.8 4.0 4.1 4.3
Coal
Australian, export markets $/MT 136.2 77.0 106.0 130.1 103.2 90.6 75.1 72.2 73.3 73.3 73.3 73.3 73.3
South African, export markets $/MT 120.6 64.7 91.6 116.3 92.9 80.2 72.4 71.4 68.8 68.8 68.8 68.8 68.8

1/ Petroleum price is average of spot prices for U.K. Brent, Dubai and West Texas Intermediate.
Actual prices through
6-Jan-2015
Table 3. Indices of Medium Term Baselines for Fuel and Non-Fuel Commodity Prices
(In terms of U.S. dollars)

World Export Weights

Export (2005=100) 1/
Weights
in 2008A1 2009A1 2010A1 2011A1 2012A1 2013A1 2014A1 2015A1 2016A1 2017A1 2018A1 2019A1 2020A1
Percent
Actual Projections
All commodities and Energy 100.00 172 121 152 192 186 183 171 126 132 136 139 140 140
Non-Fuel Commodities 36.91 151 127 161 190 171 169 162 147 146 145 144 143 142
Food and Beverages 18.55 157 136 153 182 175 175 171 153 150 149 148 147 146
Food 16.73 157 134 150 180 176 178 170 152 148 148 147 147 146
Cereals 3.59 223 162 166 231 236 218 180 147 149 148 148 147 147
Wheat 1.65 214 147 147 207 205 205 187 143 146 146 145 143 142
Maize 1.04 227 168 189 297 303 263 196 163 171 170 170 170 170
Rice 0.64 243 205 181 192 202 180 148 132 114 114 114 114 114
Barley 0.25 211 135 167 218 251 217 154 150 166 160 160 159 158
Veg. oils and protein meals 4.43 193 154 170 209 216 206 191 161 157 155 154 152 150
Soybeans 1.22 203 170 173 217 241 232 205 166 164 163 163 163 163
Soybean meal 0.84 179 175 161 184 230 232 227 178 174 173 177 177 177
Soybean oil 0.43 229 159 187 245 232 204 164 143 144 144 144 144 144
Palm oil 0.71 235 175 234 293 256 208 201 174 174 169 157 144 133
Fish meal 0.33 156 169 234 204 218 230 258 243 194 194 194 194 194
Sunflower/Saffron 0.19 148 91 104 142 130 117 94 92 91 91 91 91 91
Olive oil 0.19 76 64 57 56 57 69 71 76 78 78 78 78 78
Groundnuts 0.30 204 129 161 224 220 301 279 247 243 243 243 243 243
Rapeseed oil 0.22 197 119 140 190 172 150 125 107 98 98 98 98 98
Meat 3.73 103 98 117 134 133 137 161 172 168 169 168 167 167
Beef 1.45 102 101 128 154 158 155 189 196 186 186 186 186 186
Lamb 0.27 106 91 91 93 63 66 81 82 84 84 83 83 82
Swine Meat 1.14 96 82 110 132 122 128 152 171 161 163 161 159 156
Poultry 0.88 114 116 116 118 128 141 149 163 173 173 173 173 173
Seafood 3.18 116 115 140 139 113 160 162 135 124 124 124 124 124
Salmon 2.53 119 121 151 145 117 166 162 130 118 118 118 118 118
Shrimp 0.65 103 91 98 115 97 136 160 154 146 146 146 146 146
Sugar 0.89 117 152 172 211 175 148 146 131 141 143 144 143 143
Free market 0.61 124 180 207 261 212 176 170 146 161 165 166 166 166
United States 0.05 101 116 147 178 137 101 118 120 119 118 114 112 110
EU 0.23 102 86 85 88 87 86 91 92 92 92 92 92 92
Bananas 0.42 146 147 153 169 171 161 162 157 151 148 147 146 144
Oranges 0.49 127 104 118 102 99 111 89 87 87 87 87 87 87
Beverages 1.81 152 154 176 206 167 147 178 160 162 155 153 151 149
Coffee 0.85 150 131 165 231 180 147 185 151 159 160 160 160 160
Other milds 0.54 121 124 170 239 164 123 177 145 154 156 156 156 156
Robusta 0.32 199 145 158 217 207 188 198 162 168 168 168 168 168
Cocoa Beans 0.67 167 187 203 193 154 158 198 191 186 167 161 154 148
Tea 0.29 125 145 146 160 161 123 110 114 115 115 115 115 115
Industrial Inputs 18.36 146 119 170 198 167 163 154 142 143 142 141 140 139
Agricultural raw materials 7.70 113 94 125 154 134 136 139 136 139 136 133 129 126
Timber 3.36 109 101 101 111 107 107 110 109 109 109 108 107 106
Hardwood 1.20 138 128 131 157 146 136 138 139 141 141 140 140 140
Logs 0.37 81 75 78 83 82 91 98 100 102 101 99 97 96
Sawnwood 1.79 95 89 86 86 87 92 93 91 90 89 88 87 86
Softwood 2.16 93 86 84 85 86 92 94 93 92 91 90 89 88
Logs 0.37 81 75 78 83 82 91 98 100 102 101 99 97 96
Sawnwood 1.79 95 89 86 86 87 92 93 91 90 89 88 87 86
Cotton 0.68 129 114 188 280 162 164 151 111 119 121 110 95 81
Wool 0.50 138 115 153 234 215 196 178 174 165 149 139 124 108
Fine 0.22 143 115 151 242 199 177 159 152 152 149 130 115 97
Coarse 0.27 134 115 155 228 229 213 194 192 176 148 146 132 118
Natural rubber 0.55 174 128 243 321 225 186 130 132 139 126 115 102 91
Hides 2.62 98 68 110 125 127 144 168 170 176 174 173 173 173
Metals 10.66 169 137 202 230 191 183 164 146 145 146 147 147 148
Copper 2.85 189 140 205 240 216 199 187 170 168 168 167 166 166
Aluminum 3.88 136 88 114 126 106 97 98 97 100 102 104 106 109
Iron Ore 1.33 219 285 522 597 457 482 345 263 256 256 256 256 256
Tin 0.16 250 184 276 353 286 302 297 266 271 271 271 271 271
Nickel 1.09 143 99 148 155 119 102 114 101 101 101 101 101 101
Zinc 0.62 137 120 156 159 141 138 157 161 162 161 160 159 159
Lead 0.22 215 176 220 246 212 220 215 193 197 200 200 200 200
Uranium 0.50 230 167 165 201 175 138 120 104 91 91 91 91 91
Energy 63.09 184 116 147 193 194 191 177 113 124 131 136 138 139
Spot Crude 53.56 182 116 148 195 197 195 180 106 120 127 133 135 136
Natural Gas 6.90 174 110 113 154 171 165 159 152 152 153 154 154 155
Russian in Germany 3.18 222 150 139 179 203 189 177 172 169 169 169 169 169
Indonesian in Japan 1.86 165 107 133 221 258 247 238 233 237 237 237 237 237
US domestic 1.86 100 45 50 45 31 42 50 35 39 42 45 46 48
Coal 2.63 266 149 206 254 202 177 149 144 145 145 145 145 145
Australian 2.11 267 151 208 255 202 178 147 142 144 144 144 144 144
South African 0.52 261 140 198 252 201 174 157 155 149 149 149 149 149

1/ Weights are based on 2002-2004 averages for commodity export earnings of the world, excluding petroleum.
Actual prices through
6-Jan-2015
Table 4. Percentage Changes in Medium Term Baselines for Fuel and Non-Fuel Commodity Prices
(In terms of U.S. dollars)
World Export Weights
Export (2005=100) 1/
Weights
in 2008A1 2009A1 2010A1 2011A1 2012A1 2013A1 2014A1 2015A1 2016A1 2017A1 2018A1 2019A1 2020A1
Percent
Actual Projections

All commodities and Energy 100.0 27.7 -30.0 26.2 26.2 -3.2 -1.5 -6.3 -26.8 5.5 2.9 2.0 0.6 0.2
Non-Fuel Commodities 36.9 7.9 -15.8 26.5 17.9 -10.0 -1.2 -4.0 -9.3 -0.7 -0.7 -0.6 -0.7 -0.6
Food and Beverages 18.5 24.4 -13.2 12.1 19.5 -4.2 -0.1 -2.1 -10.8 -1.8 -0.7 -0.5 -0.7 -0.7
Food 16.7 24.5 -14.8 11.9 19.9 -2.4 1.1 -4.1 -10.8 -2.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.6 -0.6
Cereals 3.6 40.3 -27.1 2.5 38.9 2.2 -7.7 -17.4 -18.4 1.4 -0.6 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4
Wheat 1.7 27.7 -31.5 0.1 41.4 -0.9 -0.3 -8.8 -23.7 2.5 -0.2 -0.8 -0.8 -0.8
Maize 1.0 36.7 -25.8 12.4 56.9 2.3 -13.2 -25.5 -16.7 4.9 -0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0
Rice 0.6 110.7 -15.8 -11.7 6.0 5.2 -10.6 -17.8 -11.1 -13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Barley 0.3 16.3 -36.0 23.4 30.8 15.0 -13.4 -29.2 -2.5 10.7 -3.4 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5
Veg. oils and protein meals 4.4 34.2 -20.0 10.7 22.7 3.2 -4.4 -7.6 -15.6 -2.4 -1.1 -0.7 -1.3 -1.2
Soybeans 1.2 42.9 -16.5 1.7 25.8 11.1 -3.8 -11.5 -19.1 -0.9 -1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Soybean meal 0.8 39.5 -2.4 -7.8 14.4 24.9 0.8 -2.2 -21.4 -2.2 -1.0 2.4 0.0 0.0
Soybean oil 0.4 41.8 -30.6 17.5 31.5 -5.3 -12.2 -19.6 -12.6 0.7 -0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0
Palm oil 0.7 20.0 -25.4 33.5 25.2 -12.7 -18.7 -3.2 -13.5 0.1 -3.0 -7.1 -8.1 -8.1
Fish meal 0.3 -2.1 8.2 38.5 -12.6 6.9 5.3 12.3 -5.7 -20.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Sunflower/Saffron 0.2 151.7 -38.5 13.9 36.7 -8.2 -10.0 -19.4 -2.6 -0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Olive oil 0.2 -8.6 -15.8 -9.6 -3.2 2.1 21.7 2.5 6.8 3.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Groundnuts 0.3 33.1 -36.6 24.6 39.1 -2.1 37.1 -7.2 -11.7 -1.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Rapeseed oil 0.2 40.7 -39.9 18.2 35.1 -9.3 -12.7 -16.4 -14.4 -8.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Meat 3.7 3.9 -5.1 19.6 14.7 -0.9 2.7 17.3 7.3 -2.3 0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.5
Beef 1.4 2.6 -1.2 27.5 20.1 2.6 -2.3 22.1 3.6 -4.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Lamb 0.3 5.6 -13.9 -0.9 2.4 -32.3 5.7 22.5 1.1 2.8 -0.6 -0.7 -0.7 -0.8
Swine Meat 1.1 1.5 -13.7 33.5 19.6 -7.0 4.5 18.8 12.3 -5.6 1.2 -1.2 -1.5 -1.5
Poultry 0.9 8.2 1.2 0.3 1.8 7.9 10.1 6.1 9.2 6.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Seafood 3.2 6.5 -0.8 22.0 -0.8 -18.7 41.3 1.2 -16.5 -8.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Salmon 2.5 6.7 1.5 24.9 -3.9 -19.3 41.8 -2.3 -19.7 -9.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Shrimp 0.7 5.8 -11.6 7.0 18.0 -15.6 39.4 18.1 -3.7 -5.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Sugar 0.9 14.6 30.2 13.3 22.5 -16.9 -15.5 -1.2 -10.7 7.7 2.0 0.1 -0.1 -0.1
Free market 0.6 25.1 45.8 15.1 25.6 -18.5 -17.2 -3.3 -13.9 10.0 2.6 0.3 0.0 0.0
United States 0.1 2.7 14.1 27.6 21.0 -23.1 -26.6 17.2 1.6 -0.6 -1.3 -2.8 -2.1 -2.1
EU 0.2 -7.4 -15.6 -1.2 3.7 -1.1 -1.3 5.3 1.1 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Bananas 0.4 24.6 0.5 3.9 10.7 0.9 -5.9 0.6 -2.8 -3.7 -1.9 -0.9 -1.0 -1.0
Oranges 0.5 15.7 -17.9 13.7 -13.8 -2.6 11.4 -19.5 -2.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Beverages 1.8 23.3 1.6 14.1 16.6 -18.6 -11.9 20.7 -10.1 1.2 -4.0 -1.4 -1.5 -1.5
Coffee 0.9 16.0 -12.2 25.8 39.6 -22.0 -18.1 25.5 -18.2 5.0 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0
Other milds 0.5 12.1 2.5 37.3 40.6 -31.3 -24.8 43.8 -18.1 5.9 1.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
Robusta 0.3 20.3 -27.4 9.0 37.9 -4.6 -9.1 5.0 -18.2 3.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Cocoa Beans 0.7 31.4 12.5 8.1 -4.9 -20.2 2.6 25.6 -3.8 -2.5 -10.3 -3.6 -3.9 -3.9
Tea 0.3 27.2 16.5 0.9 9.3 0.8 -23.8 -10.6 3.6 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Industrial Inputs 18.4 -5.6 -18.5 43.2 16.4 -15.5 -2.3 -6.0 -7.6 0.5 -0.6 -0.7 -0.7 -0.6
Agricultural raw materials 7.7 -0.7 -17.1 33.2 22.7 -12.7 1.6 2.0 -2.2 2.1 -2.0 -2.5 -2.7 -2.6
Timber 3.4 2.0 -7.0 -0.1 9.6 -3.1 -0.1 2.1 -0.3 0.1 -0.5 -0.9 -0.8 -0.6
Hardwood 1.2 9.9 -7.0 2.5 20.0 -7.1 -7.3 1.4 0.9 1.6 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2
Logs 0.4 -2.6 -7.2 3.5 6.0 -1.3 11.2 7.7 2.0 2.9 -1.7 -1.3 -2.4 -0.6
Sawnwood 1.8 -3.9 -7.1 -3.2 -0.3 1.4 5.8 1.6 -2.0 -2.0 -0.7 -1.4 -1.0 -1.0
Softwood 2.2 -3.7 -7.1 -2.2 0.7 0.9 6.7 2.6 -1.2 -1.1 -0.9 -1.4 -1.3 -1.0
Logs 0.4 -2.6 -7.2 3.5 6.0 -1.3 11.2 7.7 2.0 2.9 -1.7 -1.3 -2.4 -0.6
Sawnwood 1.8 -3.9 -7.1 -3.2 -0.3 1.4 5.8 1.6 -2.0 -2.0 -0.7 -1.4 -1.0 -1.0
Cotton 0.7 12.8 -12.1 65.0 49.3 -42.3 1.3 -8.1 -26.5 7.8 1.4 -9.2 -13.4 -14.5
Wool 0.5 -4.2 -16.5 32.9 53.1 -8.2 -8.6 -9.3 -2.2 -5.0 -10.2 -6.5 -10.9 -12.5
Fine 0.2 -0.5 -19.6 31.4 60.1 -17.9 -11.0 -10.2 -3.9 0.0 -2.1 -12.8 -11.8 -15.7
Coarse 0.3 -7.3 -13.8 34.1 47.4 0.3 -7.0 -8.6 -1.1 -8.3 -16.0 -1.1 -10.2 -10.2
Natural rubber 0.5 14.1 -26.5 90.1 31.9 -29.9 -17.3 -30.0 1.0 5.5 -9.3 -8.9 -11.0 -10.9
Hides 2.6 -11.1 -30.0 60.4 14.0 1.4 13.9 16.4 1.4 3.6 -1.2 -1.0 0.0 0.0

Metals 10.7 -7.8 -19.2 48.2 13.5 -16.8 -4.3 -10.3 -10.9 -0.6 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6
Copper 2.8 -2.4 -25.8 45.9 17.0 -9.8 -7.9 -6.4 -9.1 -0.8 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2
Aluminum 3.9 -2.3 -35.3 30.2 10.5 -15.7 -8.7 1.1 -1.0 2.4 2.0 2.3 2.4 2.6
Iron Ore 1.3 68.1 29.9 83.4 14.4 -23.4 5.3 -28.5 -23.5 -2.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Tin 0.2 27.4 -26.3 49.7 27.9 -19.0 5.6 -1.7 -10.2 1.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Nickel 1.1 -43.1 -30.6 48.6 5.0 -23.4 -14.3 12.4 -11.9 0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.1
Zinc 0.6 -42.0 -12.0 30.3 1.6 -11.2 -2.0 13.1 2.5 0.6 -0.5 -0.6 -0.2 0.0
Lead 0.2 -18.8 -17.9 24.9 11.8 -14.0 3.7 -2.1 -10.1 1.7 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.0
Uranium 0.5 -35.3 -27.3 -1.5 22.4 -13.0 -21.1 -13.2 -13.6 -11.9 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

Energy 63.1 40.1 -36.9 26.0 31.5 0.7 -1.7 -7.4 -36.2 10.2 5.3 3.7 1.4 0.7
Spot Crude 53.6 36.4 -36.3 27.9 31.6 1.0 -0.9 -7.5 -41.1 12.6 6.4 4.4 1.6 0.8
Natural Gas 6.9 48.6 -36.9 3.4 36.2 11.0 -3.7 -3.6 -4.6 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.3
Russian in Germany 3.2 61.3 -32.6 -7.1 28.9 13.1 -6.6 -6.5 -2.5 -2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Indonesian in Japan 1.9 37.8 -35.4 25.2 65.8 16.7 -4.4 -3.4 -2.1 1.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
US domestic 1.9 27.0 -55.5 11.3 -8.9 -31.1 35.0 18.1 -29.8 12.7 8.2 5.3 3.8 3.7
Coal 2.6 93.2 -44.0 38.5 23.5 -20.5 -12.5 -15.6 -3.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Australian 2.1 93.4 -43.5 37.8 22.7 -20.7 -12.2 -17.1 -3.9 1.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
South African 0.5 92.5 -46.4 41.6 26.9 -20.1 -13.6 -9.8 -1.4 -3.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

1/ Weights are based on 2002-2004 averages for commodity export earnings of the world, excluding petroleum.
Actual prices through
6-Jan-2015
Table 5. Summary of Baselines for Medium Term Commodity Prices

Export
Weights
in 2008A1 2009A1 2010A1 2011A1 2012A1 2013A1 2014A1 2015A1 2016A1 2017A1 2018A1 2019A1 2020A1
Percent
Actual Projections

Indices in U.S. dollar terms : 2005 = 100

All commodities and Energy 100.0 172.2 120.5 152.1 191.9 185.7 182.9 171.4 125.6 132.4 136.2 138.9 139.7 140.0

Non-fuel Commodities 1/ 36.9 151.3 127.4 161.2 190.0 171.0 169.0 162.3 147.3 146.2 145.3 144.4 143.3 142.4
Food 16.7 157.4 134.1 150.1 179.9 175.6 177.6 170.2 151.7 148.5 148.0 147.4 146.5 145.7
Beverages 1.8 152.0 154.4 176.2 205.5 167.4 147.4 178.0 160.1 162.0 155.5 153.2 150.9 148.7
Agricultural
raw materials 7.7 113.4 93.9 125.1 153.5 134.0 136.2 138.9 135.9 138.7 135.9 132.5 129.0 125.7
Metals 10.7 169.0 136.5 202.3 229.7 191.0 182.9 164.1 146.3 145.5 146.0 146.6 147.4 148.3
Energy 63.1 184.5 116.5 146.7 193.0 194.2 191.0 176.8 112.9 124.4 130.9 135.7 137.6 138.6
Petroleum crude spot 2/ 53.6 181.9 115.8 148.1 194.9 196.8 195.1 180.4 106.3 119.7 127.4 133.0 135.1 136.2

Percentage changes

All commodities and Energy 27.7 -30.0 26.2 26.2 -3.2 -1.5 -6.3 -26.8 5.5 2.9 2.0 0.6 0.2

Non-fuel Commodities 1/ 7.9 -15.8 26.5 17.9 -10.0 -1.2 -4.0 -9.3 -0.7 -0.7 -0.6 -0.7 -0.6
Food 24.5 -14.8 11.9 19.9 -2.4 1.1 -4.1 -10.8 -2.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.6 -0.6
Beverages 23.3 1.6 14.1 16.6 -18.6 -11.9 20.7 -10.1 1.2 -4.0 -1.4 -1.5 -1.5
Agricultural
raw materials -0.7 -17.1 33.2 22.7 -12.7 1.6 2.0 -2.2 2.1 -2.0 -2.5 -2.7 -2.6
Metals -7.8 -19.2 48.2 13.5 -16.8 -4.3 -10.3 -10.9 -0.6 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6
Energy 40.1 -36.9 26.0 31.5 0.7 -1.7 -7.4 -36.2 10.2 5.3 3.7 1.4 0.7
Petroleum crude spot 2/ 36.4 -36.3 27.9 31.6 1.0 -0.9 -7.5 -41.1 12.6 6.4 4.4 1.6 0.8

Indices in SDR terms : 2005=100

All commodities and Energy 161.0 115.5 147.2 182.7 176.9 174.1 163.1 119.4 126.0 130.5 134.8 130.5 137.3

Non-fuel Commodities 1/ 36.9 141.5 122.2 156.1 181.0 162.9 160.9 154.4 140.1 139.1 139.1 140.1 133.9 139.7

Food 16.7 147.2 128.6 145.3 171.3 167.3 169.1 161.9 144.3 141.2 141.8 143.0 136.9 142.9
Beverages 1.8 142.1 148.0 170.6 195.7 159.5 140.4 169.4 152.3 154.1 148.9 148.6 140.9 145.9
Agricultural
raw materials 7.7 106.0 90.0 121.1 146.2 127.7 129.7 132.2 129.2 132.0 130.2 128.6 120.4 123.3
Metals 10.7 158.0 130.9 195.9 218.8 182.0 174.2 156.2 139.1 138.4 139.8 142.2 137.6 145.5
Energy 63.1 172.5 111.7 142.0 183.8 185.0 181.9 168.2 107.4 118.3 125.4 131.7 128.5 135.9
Petroleum crude spot 2/ 53.6 170.0 111.0 143.4 185.6 187.5 185.7 171.7 101.2 113.9 122.0 129.0 126.2 133.6

Percentage changes

All commodities and Energy 23.8 -28.3 27.4 24.1 -3.2 -1.5 -6.3 -26.8 5.5 3.6 3.3 -3.2 5.2

Non-fuel Commodities 1/ 4.6 -13.6 27.8 15.9 -10.0 -1.2 -4.0 -9.3 -0.7 0.0 0.6 -4.4 4.4

Food 20.6 -12.6 13.0 17.9 -2.3 1.1 -4.2 -10.9 -2.2 0.4 0.9 -4.3 4.5
Beverages 19.5 4.2 15.3 14.7 -18.5 -12.0 20.7 -10.1 1.2 -3.4 -0.2 -5.2 3.5
Agricultural
raw materials -3.8 -15.1 34.5 20.7 -12.6 1.6 1.9 -2.2 2.1 -1.4 -1.2 -6.3 2.4
Metals -10.7 -17.2 49.7 11.7 -16.8 -4.3 -10.3 -10.9 -0.6 1.1 1.7 -3.2 5.7
Energy 35.7 -35.3 27.2 29.4 0.7 -1.7 -7.5 -36.2 10.2 6.0 5.0 -2.4 5.8
Petroleum crude spot 2/ 32.2 -34.7 29.2 29.5 1.0 -0.9 -7.6 -41.1 12.6 7.1 5.7 -2.2 5.9

1/ Weights are based on 2002-2004 averages for commodity export earnings of the world, excluding petroleum.
2/ Petroleum price is average of spot prices for U.K. Brent, Dubai and West Texas Intermediate.
 Table 6.
Specifications for Commodity prices

World
Export
Weights
Commodities 2002-2004 Price Specifications Unit

Non-fuel commodities 100.0

Edibles 50.3

Food 45.3

Cereals 9.7

Wheat 4.5 U.S. No. 1 hard red winter, ordinary protein, prompt shipment, FOB $/Mt
Gulf of Mexico ports (USDA, Grain and Feed Market News, Washington, DC).

Maize 2.8 U.S. No. 2 yellow, prompt shipment, FOB Gulf of Mexico ports (USDA, $/Mt
Grain and Feed Market News, Washington, D.C.). 1/

Rice 1.7 Thai, white milled, 5 percent broken, nominal price quotes, FOB Bangkok $/Mt
(USDA, Rice Market News, Little Rock, Arkansas). 2/

Barley 0.7 Through May 2012: Canadian No. 1 Western Barley, spot price (Winnipeg $/Mt
Commodity Exchange). From June 2012 onwards: U.S. No. 2 feed barley,
Minneapolis delivery spot price (USDA) 1/

Vegetable oils/protein meals 12.0

Soybeans 3.3 Soybean futures contract (first contract forward) No. 2 yellow and par $/Mt
Chicago Board of Trade 1/

Soybean meal 2.3 Soybean Meal Futures (first contract forward) Minimum 48 percent protein $/Mt
Chicago Board of Trade 1/

Soybean oil 1.2 Soybean Oil Futures (first contract forward) exchange approved grades $/Mt
Chicago Board of Trade 1/

Palm oil 1.9 Palm Oil Futures (first contract forward) 4-5 percent FFA $/Mt
Bursa Malaysian Derivatives Berhad 1/

Sunflower/Safflower Oil 0.5 Sunflower Oil, crude, US export price from Gulf of Mexico (DataStream) $/Mt

Olive Oil 0.8 United Kingdom ex-tanker prices, extra virgin olive oil, 1%> ffa (free $/Mt
fatty acid) (DataStream). 1/
Fishmeal 0.5 $/Mt
Peru Fish meal/pellets 65% protein, CIF (DataStream) 1/

Groundnuts 0.6 40/50 (40 to 50 count per ounce), cif Argentina (DataStream) $/Mt

Rapeseed Oil 0.9 Crude, fob Rotterdam 1/ (DataStream) $/Mt

Meat 10.1

Beef 3.9 Australian and New Zealand, frozen boneless, 85 percent visible lean Cts/lb
cow meat, U.S. import price FOB port of entry.

Lamb 0.7 New Zealand, PL, frozen, wholesale price at Smithfield Market, London Cts/lb
(National Business Review, Auckland, New Zealand).

Swine Meat 3.1 51-52% (.8 - .99 inches of backfat at measuring point) lean Hogs, USDA Cts/lb
average base cost price of back fat measured at the tenth rib (USDA).

Poultry 2.4 Georgia docks, ready to eat whole body chicken, packed in ice, spot price Cts/lb
(USDA).

Seafood 8.6

Fish 6.9 Fresh Norwegian Salmon, farm bred, export price (NorStat). US$/kg

Shrimp 1.8 Mexican, west coast, white, No. 1, shell-on, headless, 26 to 30 count US$/kg
per pound, wholesale price at New York.

Sugar 2.4

Free market 1.6 CSCE contract No. 11, nearest future position Cts/lb
(Coffee, Sugar and Cocoa Exchange, New York Board of Trade).

United States 0.1 CSCE contract No. 14, nearest future position Cts/lb
(Coffee, Sugar and Cocoa Exchange, New York Board of Trade).

EU 0.6 EU import price, unpacked sugar, CIF European ports. Negotiated Cts/lb
price for sugar from ACP countries to EU under the Sugar Protocol.
(EU Office in Washington D.C.). 1/

Bananas 1.1 Central American and Ecuador, first class quality tropical pack, Chiquita, $/Mt
Dole and Del Monte, U.S. importer's price FOB U.S. ports (Sopisco News,
Guayaquil).
 Oranges 1.3 Miscellaneous Oranges, French import price (FruiTROP and World Bank). $/Mt

Beverages 4.9

Coffee 2.3
Other milds 1.5 International Coffee Organization, Other Mild Arabicas New York cash price. Cts/lb
Average of El Salvador central standard, Guatemala prime washed
and Mexico prime washed, prompt shipment, ex-dock New York 1/

Robusta 0.9 International Coffee Organization, Robustas New York cash price. Cts/lb
Cote d'Ivoire Grade II and Uganda standard, prompt shipment, ex-dock New
York. Prior to July 1982, arithmetic average of Angolan Ambriz 2 AA
and Ugandan Native Standard, ex-dock New York. 1/

Cocoa beans 1.8 International Cocoa Organization cash price. Average of the three nearest $/Mt
active futures trading months in the New York Cocoa Exchange at noon
and the London Terminal market at closing time, CIF U.S. and European ports
(The Financial Times, London). 1/

Tea 0.8 Mombasa auction price for best PF1, Kenyan Tea. Cts/Kg
Replaces London auction price beginning July 1998.

Industrial Inputs 49.7

Agricultural Raw Materials 20.9

Timber 9.1

Hardwood 3.2

Logs 1.0 Malaysian, meranti, Sarawak best quality, sale price charged by importers, $/Cm
Japan (World Bank, Washington, D.C.). From January 1988 to
February 1993, average of Sabah and Sarawak in Tokyo weighted by
their respective import volumes in Japan. From February 1993 to present,
Sarawak only. 3/

Sawnwood 2.3 Malaysian sawnwood, dark red meranti, select and better quality, standard $/Cm
density, C&F U.K. Port (Tropical Timbers, Surrey, England). 3/
Softwood 5.9

Logs 1.0 Average export price of Douglas-fir, Western hemlock and other softwoods $/Cm
exported from Washington, Oregon, Northern California and Alaska.
(Pacific Northwest Research Station, USDA Forest Service, Portland, OR). 3/

Sawnwood 4.9 Average export price of Douglas-fir, Western hemlock and other sawn softwood $/Cm
exported from Canada.

Cotton 1.8 Middling 1-3/32 inch staple, Liverpool Index "A", average of the cheapest Cts/lb
five of fourteen styles, CIF Liverpool (Cotton Outlook, Liverpool). From
January 1968 to May 1981 strict middling 1-1/16 inch staple. Prior to
1968, Mexican 1-1/16. 2/

Wool 1.3

Fine 0.6 19 micron (AWEX, Australian Wool Exchange) Cts/Kg

Sidney, Australia

Coarse 0.7 23 micron (AWEX, Australian Wool Exchange) Cts/Kg

Sidney, Australia

Rubber 1.5 Singapore Commodity Exchange, No. 1 Rubber Smoked Sheets, 1st contract Cts/lb
(Bloomberg, R01 Comdty)

Hides 7.1 U.S., Chicago packer's heavy native steers, over 53 lbs.,wholesale dealer's price, Cts/lb
(formerly over 58 lbs.), FOB shipping point (Wall Street Journal, New York).
Prior to November 1985, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Washington, D. C. 1/
 Metals 28.9

Copper 7.7 London Metal Exchange, grade A cathodes, spot price, CIF European $/Mt
ports (Wall Street Journal, New York and Metals Week, New York).
Prior to July 1986, higher grade, wirebars, or cathodes. 1/

Aluminum 10.5 London Metal Exchange, standard grade, spot price, minimum purity $/Mt
99.5 percent, CIF U.K. ports (Wall Street Journal, New York and
Metals Week, New York). Prior to 1979, U.K. producer price, minimum purity
99 percent. 1/

Iron ore 3.6 Brazilian, Carajas fines, 67.55 percent FE (iron) content, contract price to Cts/DMTU
Europe, FOB Ponta da Madeira (Companhia Vale do Rio Doce, Rio de
Janeiro, Brazil). 4/

Tin 0.4 London Metal Exchange, standard grade, spot price, CIF European ports (Wall $/Mt
Street Journal, New York, New York). From Dec. 1985 to June 1989
Malaysian, straits, minimum 99.85 percent purity, Kuala Lumpur Tin Market
settlement price. Prior to November 1985, London Metal Exchange
(Wall Street Journal, New York and Metals Week, New York). 1/

Nickel 3.0 London Metal Exchange, melting grade, spot price, CIF Northern European $/Mt
ports (Wall Street Journal, New York and Metals Week, New York). Prior
to 1980 INCO, melting grade, CIF Far East and American ports (Metal
Bulletin, London). 1/

Zinc 1.7 London Metal Exchange, high grade 98 percent pure, spot price, CIF U.K. $/Mt
ports (Wall Street Journal and Metals Weeek, New York). Prior
to January 1987, standard grade. 1/

Lead 0.6 London Metal Exchange, 99.97 percent pure, spot price, CIF European ports $/Mt
(Wall Street Journal, New York and Metals Week, New York). 1/

Uranium 1.4 Metal Bulletin Nuexco Exchange Uranium (U3O8 restricted) price. $/lb

Energy 100.0

Spot crude Petroleum 85.0 Average of U.K. Brent (light), Dubai (medium), and West Texas Intermediate $/bbl
(heavy), equally weighted. 1/

U.K. Brent 28.3 U.K. light, Brent Blend 38o API, spot price, FOB U.K. ports (International $/bbl
Petroleum Exchanged, London). Prior to 1984, North African Light 37/44o API
(Petroleum Intelligence Weekly, New York). Prior to 1974, Libyan Brega
40o API, posted price, ex Marsa El Brega (Platt's Oil Price Handbook
and Almanac, New York). Prior to 1961, Qatar Um Said 39o API, posted
price, FOB (Platt's Oil Price Handbook and Almanac, New York). 1/

Dubai Fateh 28.3 Dubai, medium, Fateh 32o API, spot price, FOB Dubai. (International $/bbl
Petroleum Exchange, London). Prior to 1984, Middle East Light 34o API, spot price,
(Petroleum Intelligence Weekly, New York). Prior to 1974, Saudi Arabian
Light 34o API, posted price, ex Ras Tanura (Platt's Oil Price Handbook
and Almanac, New York). 1/

West Texas Intermediate 28.3 U.S., West Texas Intermediate 40o API, spot price, FOB Midland Texas $/bbl
(New York Mercantile Exchange, New York). In 1983-1984
(Platt's Oilgram Price Report, New York). 1/

Natural Gas 11.7

Russian Border Price 5.1 Russian border price in Germany (World Gas Intelligence, New York). $/MMBTU

Henry Hub 3.0 Natural Gas Spot Price, Henry Hub, Lousiana. $/MMBTU

Indonesian 3.0 Indonesian Liquid Natural Gas in Japan (World Gas Intelligence, New York). $/MMBTU

Coal 4.0

Australian Coal Australian thermal coal, 12000 btu/pound, less than 1% sulfur, 14% ash, fob $/Mt
piers, Newcastle/Port Kembla (World Bank).

1/ Average of daily quotations.

2/ Average of weekly quotations.
3/ Monthly quotations.
4/ The price is quoted in cents per 1% Fe dry metric ton FOB (DMTU). For 67.55% Carajas fines, a price of 29.31 cts/DMTU is equal to US$19.79 per metric ton.