COVID-19 case fatality rates across Southeast Asian countries (SEA):

a preliminary estimate using a simple linear regression model

George R. Puno

Several objectives were posted in this study. For one, it is aimed at

determining COVID-19 preliminary case fatality rates (CFR) across

Southeast Asian (SEA) countries. In an attempt to support the

government, this study aims to provide the government with knowledge

that will aid in the resolution of the problem as it provides useful insights

for the immediate action and planning responses on the COVID-19

pandemic among SEA countries. It seeks to present an overview of certain

notable government efforts and best management practices that have been

implemented in order to minimize the CFR of the disease among countries

in the region.

The conceptual framework of the study is shown below:

Independent Variable Dependent Variable

Accumulated Confirmed Accumulated Cases of Death

Cases of COVID-19

The diagram is a schematic diagram in which the mediation is a

hypothesized causal chain in which one variable affects a second variable. The
indirect effect represents the portion of the relationship between the accumulated

confirmed cases of COVID-19 and the accumulated cases of death.

More so, this study utilized the computation of the case fatality rates

using the simple linear regression model. The researchers and modelers

proposed a variety of CFR estimations for COVID-19 that were derived from

a variety of different mathematical models. Examples of such methods

include using the basic ratio and proportion of confirmed cases to all

fatalities, Poisson mixture models, the use of lag time, cohort-based

approach, simple linear regression models, fixed-effect models, and meta-

analysis.

The regression analysis was performed using the Microsoft Excel

program to determine the values of several statistical parameters such as

the coefficient of determination, the slope of the fitted line, the standard

error of the slope, and the slope's 95% confidence range. The model

supplied the standard error of the slope, which was used to construct the

CFR's confidence interval. The researchers stated that the linear

regression model is simple to use and has the ability to filter out other

variables such as incubation period, hospitalization time, policy-driven

actions and tactics, and so on, by intercepting the fitted line while

maintaining a consistent slope. The model enables the determination of

the slope of the fitted line, referred to as the CFR estimate, using the
cumulative number of confirmed cases and fatalities as predictor and

outcome variables, respectively.

Meanwhile, the case fatality rate (CFR) was calculated using a

simple linear regression model with the number of confirmed COVID-19

infections as the independent variable and the number of fatalities as the

dependent variable. In the findings, it can be assumed/suggested that the

pandemic scenario in Indonesia and the Philippines is extremely

frightening at the moment. The findings of the study, which were

supported by literature reviews and triangulations, indicate that low CFR

nations are likely to have strong political interventions in terms of control

measures implementation. These include rapid mass testing, contact

tracing of infections, local and international travel restrictions, effective

quarantine measures and efficient information dissemination.

This study enables countries to share their best management

methods and decision-making in dealing the COVID-19 pandemic. It

equips the government with knowledge that will aid in resolving an issue

by providing valuable insights for quick action and reaction planning.

Developing theories is critical for increasing understanding. As one can

read, this journal article offer evidence for the researchers’ claims which

gives it its credibility. It offers great reading and a wealth of information. It

presented a method of estimating variables, organized a systematic review

of the literature, and providing findings backed by the use of scientific

studies, thus contributing to the cultivation of the culture of research in

the future.