Forecast by pick up Data collected from the previous year around the s

Current date: 12th February and your reservations look as follows: 22nd January Thursday
forecast dates ROH 29th January Thursday
26th FebruThursday 31 5th February Thursday
27th FebruFriday 34 12th February Thursday
28th FebruSaturday 80 19th February Thursday
Mean average
Pick up

23rd January Friday

30th January Friday
6th February Friday
13th February Friday
20th February Friday
Mean Average
Pick up

24th January Saturday

31st January Saturday
7th February Saturday
14th February Saturday
21st February Saturday
Mean Average
Pick up
m the previous year around the same period of time
Days before arrival

-1 7 14 21
41 42 21 14 forecast dates ROH
45 42 19 10 26th February Thursday
32 40 18 15 27th February Friday
50 44 20 12 28th February Saturday
42 43 24 17

46 51 22 21
37 50 25 22
48 49 23 20
46 53 28 22
50 52 25 25

124 146 79 80
128 133 75 70
119 135 75 81
131 141 78 75
125 136 77 81
Pick up Forecast
Mean Absolute Deviation(MAD) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error(MAPE)
Forecast Actual Absolute Deviation
Friday 90 100
Saturday 112 110
Sunday 74 80
Monday 75 77
Tuesday 98 93
Wednesda 76 70
Thursday 115 105
Friday 110 115
MAD =
Mean of actuals
MAPE
Group forecasting Attrition Forecast
Days before arrival -1 7 14
2017 Monday 33 35 35
2018 Tuesday 36 35 35
2019 Wednesda 32 35 35
Mean average 33.66667 35 35 -2 + ROH Forecast
2017 Monday 39 40 40
2018 Tuesday 38 40 40
2019 Wednesda 40 40 40
Mean average 39 40 40 -1 + ROH Forecast
2017 Monday 36 40 40
2018 Tuesday 35 40 40
2019 Wednesda 37 40 40
Mean average 36 40 40 -4 + ROH Forecast
Moving average; 4 weeks example

Week 0f Liter Beer consumed

Aug-31 360 360 + 389 + 410 + 381 = 1540
Sep-07 389 Mean average = 385
Sep-14 410
Sep-21 381 389 + 410 + 381 + 368 = 1548
Sep-28 368 Mean average = 387
Oct-05 374
410 + 381 + 368 + 374 = 1533
Mean average = 383.25
Weighted average

Week 0f Liter Beer weight (381 X 0.2) + (368 X 0.3) + (374 X 0.5) =
Sep-21 381  0.2 76.2 + 110.4 + 187 = 373.60
Sep-28 368 0.3
Oct-05 374  0.5
Exponential Smoothing

Where α= 0.2

Week Units Calculation Forecast

1 246 246 (assumed)
2 256 246 + 0.2(0) 246
3 255 246 + 0.2(10) 248
4 248 248 + 0.2(7) 249.4
5 263 249.4 + 0.2(-1.4) 249.1
6 254 249.1 + 0.2(13.9) 251.9
7 256 251.9 + 0.2(2.1) 252.3
8 258 252.3 + 0.2(3.7) 253
9 249 253 + 0.2(5) 254
10 257 254 + 0.2(-5) 253
11 259 253 + 0.2(4) 253.8
12 243 253.8 + 0.2(5.2) 254.8
13 255 254.8 + 0.2(-11.8) 252.4
14 251 252.4 + 0.2(2.6) 252.9
15 253 252.9 + 0.2(-1.9) 252.5
16 252.5 + 0.2(0.5) 252.6
Week Units Forecast AD
1 246 246 -
2 256 246 10.0
3 255 248 7.0
4 248 249.4 1.4
5 263 249.1 13.9
6 254 251.9 2.1
7 256 252.3 3.7
8 258 253.1 4.9
9 249 254.0 5.0
10 257 253.0 4.0
11 259 253.8 5.2
12 243 254.9 11.9
13 255 252.5 2.5
14 251 253.0 2.0
15 253 252.6 0.4
16 252.7 -
Totals 74.0
Averages MAD
5.283261