Creating a Forecast

Gather Rooms on Books Data

Days Before Arrival (DBA)

Date -1 7 14 21 28

21-Sep-14 100 60 40 30 20
28-Sep-14 120 70 45 30 15
5-Oct-14 110 70 40 30 20
12-Oct-14 100 70 35 20 10
19-Oct-14 120 80 40 40 10

Average ROB 110 70 40 30 15

Average Pickup 40 70 80 95

Forecast Within 1 Week pickup is 40 Rooms

Within 2 Weeks pickup is 70 Rooms
Within 3 Weeks pickup is 80 Rooms
Within 4 Weeks pickup is 95 Rooms
Challenge I
Thursday 18th June
Friday 19th June
Saturday 20th June

Below are the ROH for each date TWO WEEKS prior to arrival

Forecast Dates ROH

Thurs June 18 78
Fri June 19 59
Sat June 20 105

Rooms on Hold/ Rooms on Books information for May and June last year

Days Before Arrival

Arrival Dates
-1 7 14 21
Thu 20 May 56 57 36 29
Fri 21 May 61 66 37 36
Sat 22 May 140 160 94 95
Thu 27 May 62 57 35 36
Fri 28 May 52 65 40 39
Sat 29 May 142 148 90 85
Thu 3 Jun 48 56 33 31
Fri 4 Jun 62 65 40 35
Sat 5 Jun 135 152 91 96
Thu 10 Jun 65 60 35 27
Fri 11 Jun 62 67 42 37
Sat 12 Jun 146 157 93 90
Thu 17 Jun 59 58 39 32
Fri 18 Jun 65 67 40 40
Sat 19 Jun 140 151 92 97

The above two tables will provide you with all the information you need to forecast
the dates that are coming up two weeks from now
 Thursday
-1 7 14
20.May 56 57 36
27.May 62 57 35
03.Jun 48 56 33
10.Jun 65 60 35
17.Jun 59 58 39

Average ROH 58 57.6 35.6

Pickup 0.4 22.4

Friday
-1 7 14
21.May 61 66 37
28.May 52 65 40
04.Jun 62 65 40
11.Jun 62 67 42
18.Jun 65 67 40

Average ROH 60.4 66 39.8

Pickup -5.6 20.6

Saturday
-1 7 14
22.May 140 160 94
29.May 142 148 90
05.Jun 135 152 91
12.Jun 146 157 93
19.Jun 140 151 92
 Average ROH 140.6 153.6 92
Pickup -13 48.6

Pickup Calculation Two Weeks Prior to Arrival (DBA 14)

Thursday = 22
Friday = 21
Saturday = 49

Forecast for Dates

Forecast = ROH (DBA 14) + Pickup

Thursday 18.Jun = 78 + 22
Friday 19.Jun = 59 + 21
Saturday 20.Jun = 105 + 49
= Forecast

= 100
= 80
= 154
Challenge II
Thursday 18th June
Friday 19th June
Saturday 20th June

Below are the ROH for each date TWO WEEKS prior to arrival

Forecast Dates ROH

Thurs June 18 91
Fri June 19 63
Sat June 20 95

Rooms on Hold/ Rooms on Books information for May and June last year

Days Before Arrival

Arrival Dates
-1 7 14 21
Thu 20 May 48 65 30 35
Fri 21 May 70 68 48 48
Sat 22 May 125 158 120 115
Thu 27 May 70 40 35 47
Fri 28 May 45 60 50 45
Sat 29 May 138 155 98 96
Thu 3 Jun 48 58 43 46
Fri 4 Jun 75 61 46 54
Sat 5 Jun 143 123 97 98
Thu 10 Jun 86 80 46 34
Fri 11 Jun 70 55 56 42
Sat 12 Jun 133 165 87 85
Thu 17 Jun 55 58 47 38
Fri 18 Jun 70 77 64 55
Sat 19 Jun 137 148 105 97

The above two tables will provide you with all the information you need to forecast
the dates that are coming up two weeks from now
 Thursday
-1 7 14
20.May 48 65 30
27.May 70 40 35
03.Jun 48 58 43
10.Jun 86 80 46
17.Jun 55 58 47

Average ROH 61.4 60.2 40.2

Pickup 1.2 21.2

Friday
-1 7 14
21.May 70 68 48
28.May 45 60 50
04.Jun 75 61 46
11.Jun 70 55 56
18.Jun 70 77 64

Average ROH 66 64.2 52.8

Pickup 1.8 13.2

Saturday
-1 7 14
22.May 125 158 120
29.May 138 155 98
05.Jun 143 123 97
 12.Jun 133 165 87
19.Jun 137 148 105

Average ROH 135.2 149.8 101.4

Pickup -14.6 33.8

Pickup Calculation Two Weeks Prior to Arrival (DBA 14)

Thursday = 21
Friday = 13
Saturday = 34

Forecast for Dates

Forecast = ROH (DBA 14) + Pickup

Thursday 18.Jun = 91 + 21
Friday 19.Jun = 63 + 13
Saturday 20.Jun = 95 + 34
Pickup = Forecast

21 = 112
13 = 76
34 = 129
Challenge III
Thursday 18th June
Friday 19th June
Saturday 20th June

Below are the ROH for each date TWO WEEKS prior to arrival

Forecast Dates ROH

Thurs June 18 55
Fri June 19 87
Sat June 20 69

Rooms on Hold/ Rooms on Books information for May and June last year

Days Before Arrival

Arrival Dates
-1 7 14 21
Thu 20 May 40 61 33 39
Fri 21 May 65 72 55 50
Sat 22 May 115 141 132 123
Thu 27 May 76 49 43 54
Fri 28 May 47 63 61 53
Sat 29 May 129 160 117 103
Thu 3 Jun 43 52 36 58
Fri 4 Jun 70 58 49 57
Sat 5 Jun 137 136 121 114
Thu 10 Jun 80 77 53 38
Fri 11 Jun 70 62 47 55
Sat 12 Jun 127 140 77 90
Thu 17 Jun 59 48 54 33
Fri 18 Jun 63 72 52 60
Sat 19 Jun 122 132 110 92

The above two tables will provide you with all the information you need to forecast
the dates that are coming up two weeks from now
 Thursday
-1 7 14
20.May 40 61 33
27.May 76 49 43
03.Jun 43 52 36
10.Jun 80 77 53
17.Jun 59 48 54

Average ROH 59.6 57.4 43.8

Pickup 2.2 15.8

Friday
-1 7 14
21.May 65 72 55
28.May 47 63 61
04.Jun 70 58 49
11.Jun 70 62 47
18.Jun 63 72 52

Average ROH 63 65.4 52.8

Pickup -2.4 10.2

Saturday
-1 7 14
22.May 115 141 132
29.May 129 160 117
05.Jun 137 136 121
 12.Jun 127 140 77
19.Jun 122 132 110

Average ROH 126 141.8 111.4

Pickup -15.8 14.6

Pickup Calculation Two Weeks Prior to Arrival (DBA 14)

Thursday = 16
Friday = 10
Saturday = 15

Forecast for Dates

Forecast = ROH (DBA 14) + Pickup

Thursday 18.Jun = 55 + 16
Friday 19.Jun = 87 + 10
Saturday 20.Jun = 69 + 15
Pickup = Forecast

16 = 71
10 = 97
15 = 84
 Calculating MAD (Mean Absolute Deviation)

Steps:
Calculate the Deviation between Actuals and Focast
Calculate the Absolute Value of this Deviation
Calculate the Mean for the Data
This is the MAD

Complete the following below to calculate the MAD

Forecast Actual Deviation Absolute Deviation

Friday 90 100 -10 10
Saturday 112 110 2 2
Sunday 74 80 -6 6
Monday 75 77 -2 2
Tuesday 98 93 5 5
Wednesday 76 70 6 6
Thursday 115 105 10 10
Friday 110 115 -5 5

Mean 5.75

Calculating MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error)

Steps:
Calculate the Deviation between Actuals and Forecast
Calculate the Absolute Value of this Deviation
Calculate the Mean for the Data
This is the MAD
Calculate the Average Rooms Sold
Divide the MAD by the Average Rooms Sold as a Percentage
This is the MAPE

Complete the following below to calcul

Forecast Actual Deviation Absolute Deviation

Friday 90 100 -10 10
Saturday 112 110 2 2
Sunday 74 80 -6 6
Monday 75 77 -2 2
Tuesday 98 93 5 5
Wednesday 76 70 6 6
Thursday 115 105 10 10
Friday 110 115 -5 5
Mean 5.8
Average Rooms Sold 93.75
MAPE 6.1%