Started on Thursday, 24 February 2022, 8:44 PM

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Completed on Thursday, 24 February 2022, 9:59 PM

Time taken 1 hour 14 mins

Grade 84.00 out of 100.00

Question 1
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During the presidential election, Vernon tends to focus only on the news report that support his
view that one candidate is better than the other. He doesn’t even read any articles that have a
headline casting doubts on his preferred candidate. Vernon is demonstrating the __________
bias.

a.
Standardization

b.
Mental sets

c.
The confirmation bias            

d.
Confirmation
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The correct answer is:

Confirmation

Question 2
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When people use the representativeness heuristic, they:

a.
 Suffer from the large-sample fallacy, 

b.
Make a judgment based on ease of retrieval from memory

c.
Make a judgment based on similarity 

d.
Place too much emphasis on base rates, 
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The correct answer is:

Make a judgment based on similarity 

Question 3
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Who is mostly involved in Decision Making?
 

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Decision making occurs when a judgement must be made between the merits and demerits of different
choice processes, whereas problem-solving generates the choice processes in the first place (Harrison,
1999). In presenting an overview of decision making, we can also then begin to consider the antecedent
environmental factors that shape decision making. Teale et al (2003) propose that decisions, of the type
discussed, are made by a decision body in organisations. These are the individuals, collective groupings
and other stakeholder entities that actively shape the decision-making process. Some care should be
taken regarding who or what may constitute a valid stakeholder for an organisational decision.

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Question 4
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What is not an assumption underpinning the rational decision-making model?

a.
An agreed goal

b.
Structured problem

c.
High level of certainty regarding the environment

d.
Incomplete information

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Incomplete information

Question 5
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What steps should be taken in order to make a decision on a given problem?
 

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1.        Define the problem (what is it that needs to be determined?)
2.        Determine the evaluative criteria (efficiency? efficacy? morality?)
3.        Identify all possible solutions (the range of actions which result in the achievement of the problem
aim)
4.        Judge the achievement of the outcomes of these solutions against preferred criteria and problem
aim (which solution works best by the relevant criteria)
5.        Choose the optimal solution

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Question 6
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What is the term for a sub-optimal but acceptable outcome of negotiations between parties? 

a.
Compromising

b.
Bargaining

c.
Satisficing

d.
Accepting
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The correct answer is:

Satisficing

Question 7
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1. What are the three types of decision enterprise can make and describe them?
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Strategic Decision (or a Corporate Strategy) – such as for example, the decision to enter the Indian
market to support organisational sales growth of 5% per annum
 
Tactical Decision (or a Business Strategy) – such as for example, to decide between export led market
expansion or locally producing the product
 
Operational Decision – such as for example the decision to hire more expatriates (or local staff) to
deliver and manage either the export or local production operations.

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Question 8
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Case Study: Box 1.1: Taking big decisions at Nokia
 
Stephen Elop, who joined Nokia as President and CEO in September 2010 from the senior staff
of Microsoft is faced with a significant amount of uncertainty and ambiguity in determining the
future strategy of the company. With a rapidly declining market share in developed markets
(where Google’s Android and Apples iPhone have heralded the invasion of Smartphones) and a
weakening competitive position in emerging markets (such as India), the decisions he is taking
are significant for the survival of the organisation. In February 2011, he issued his famous
‘burning platform’ memo and canvassed 3 questions to all Nokia employees: The ‘burning
memo’ document presented a clear and simple analogy for Nokia employees:
 
Mr. Elop subsequently announced a strategic decision to create a joint venture with Microsoft
and adopt their Windows operating system to power their new smartphones. It offers tactically
both leveraged branding for Microsoft and Nokia in both developed and emerging markets but
moreover still requires Nokia to make the operational decision of maintaining their support for
their in-house Symbian and Meego platforms, to finance the transition of the company. A large
challenge given the extensive history of organic and in house technological development and
the corporate culture this has developed.
 
Consider these questions for discussion and further research:
1)What were the decisions taken by Stephen?
2) what were the defining features of those decisions?
3) What was the process Stephen used and why, to take those decisions?
4)What are the risks associated with these decisions?
 
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Question 9
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How would you describe the Rational Model (RAT)?
 
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This model assumes that all relevant and pertinent information is available to the decision body in a
supportive (and unconstrained context), to allow optimal decisions to be taken, through a consideration of
all potential outcomes (which themselves can be known and understood in advance) (Lee and Cummins,
2004). In the case of economics for example, this may be a comparative cost –benefit analysis.
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Question 10
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What is the term for decisions limited by the human capacity to absorb and analyse
information? 

a.
Cognitive rationality

b.
Conscious rationality
c.
Bounded rationality

d.
Restricted rationality
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The correct answer is:
Bounded rationality

Question 11
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Recently, you’ve seen several reports of shark attacks in Florida on the news. You go to a
beach in California and can’t make yourself get in the water because all you can think about are
sharks. This is an example of what type of heuristic?

a.
Accessibility

b.
Base rate

c.
Availability

d.
Representativeness
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The correct answer is:

Availability
Question 1
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The results of a Monte Carlo simulation of investment was provided to you as a
consultant, Base on the information provide determine the following:

1)  Which is the best alternative for investment that you would recommend, what are the
possibilities and what is the rationale?
2)      Which is the second-best alternative for the investment that you would recommend, what
are the possibilities and what is the rationale?
3)  Which would be the worst alternative for investment, the possibility and why this alternative?
4)   What would be the new Net cash flow & possibility if $90,000 is injected into the 5
alternatives? Would the order of invest be the same; Please justify why
5)      Which would be the best alternative that you would recommend after injecting the 90,000,
what are the possibilities and what is the rational

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1)      Which is the best alternative for the investment that you would recommend, what are the
possibilities and what is the rationale?
Enrollment Quick List

Cash
Alternative Cash Outflow Net Cashflow Possibility Return(ROI)
Inflow
8 & 10 75000 45000 30000 13% 67%
4 30000 10000 20000 7% 200%
2&6 40000 30000 10000 13% 33%

 
2)      Which is the second best alternative for the investment that you would recommend, what are the
possibilities and what is the rationale?

Net
Alternative Cash Inflow Cash Outflow Possibility Return(ROI)
Cashflow
8 & 10 75000 45000 30000 20% 67%
3)      Which would be the worst alternative for investment, the possibility and why this alternative?

Cash Cash Net

Alternative ROI
Inflow Outflow Cashflow
1 10000 60000 -50000 -83%

4)      What would be the new Net cash flow & the possibility if $90,000 is injected into the 5 alternative?
would the order of alternatives remain the same; Please justify why? The order of the alternative would
remain the same since 4 is the best and 1 is the worst option for the investment alternative.
 

Net
Alternative Cash Inflow Cash Outflow Possibility Return(ROI)
Cashflow
5 40000 90000 -50000 7% -56%

 
5)      Which would be the best alternative that you would recommend after injecting the 90,000, what are
the possibilities and what is the rationale? Investment 4 is still the best option and is highly
recommendable.
 
 

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Question 2
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What are Schemas referring to?
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These are the mental constructs that allow interpretation to be made of an individual’s environment and
support the selection and implementation of differing cognitive heuristics.
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Question 3
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What is paradigm referring to:

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This describes how reality is constructed by subjective perception and therefore predictions cannot be
made using for example, statistical data.

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Question 4
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What is Problem space referring to? 

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This describes the individual’s environment (incl. schemas), task and situation which give value and
meaning to the decision selection.
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Question 5
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Elaborate on the origin of schemas deployed for the problem space that comes from
individual Experiences.
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In its most accessible format, SSM is a seven stage-structured process for identifying the scope for
organisational change and to improve the likelihood that the organisation will achieve more of its intended
objective. There is a recognition that the achievement of ‘a preferred outcome’ is subject to the individuals
in that organisational system, their perceptions and values and how those individuals learn and better
understand their complex inter-relationships. SSM is therefore concerned with recognizing reflexivity (as
stated), recognizing that the aim of the analysis is to understand the problem domain and recognizing
that, typically, managers are interested in understanding what the identified system should be doing and
what needs to be addressed to achieve this. Through this analysis, an agenda for discussion of change is
generated, from which can emerge operational and strategic actions for the organisation.
In Mode 1 of this approach, the analyst is assumed to know very little of the organisation and its problem
context. Mode 1 is therefore focused upon an external intervention in the organisation to provide a
structured debate about possible changes, focusing upon apparent differences between intended
organisational outcome and emergent outcome. The seven steps in Mode 1 are. The transition between
stage 2 →3 represents a mindset change from considering the reality of organisational practice, to the
idealized context of organisational practice. Equally, the transition from stage 4→ 5 represents a mindset
change from considering the idealized context of organisational practice to the reality of organisational
practice.

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Question 6
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What is recoverability referring to: This describes the need to be able to, as much as possible,
replicate a given interpretive analysis by describing key activities undertaken.
Answer text
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This describes the need to be able to, as much as possible, replicate a given interpretive analysis by
describing key activities undertaken.
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Question 7
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1. What is Monte Carlo Model referring to and how is it applied in the working environment?

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The Monte Carlo simulation is an approach to decision making that does not rely upon measurable input
data. Subjective estimates of likelihoods of given events occurring (such as those presented in chapter 3)
nor on assumed patterns in success or failures in the environment of the organisation (such as those
presented in the Poisson distribution and queuing theory of chapter 4). Instead, the method uses
randomness to assign weightings to potential outcomes and in so doing, allows the manager to make
recommended decisions without recourse to the context of those decisions.
 

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Question 8
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Continuous variable Referring to:
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This is referring to data points measured between interval points.
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