CASE STUDY 2: ANALYZING CRIME FOR PROBABILITY

INTRODUCTION
This case study illustrates the importance of understanding probability in police work,
particularly when it comes to analyzing crime statistics and predicting future crimes. By
mastering these skills, police officers can better allocate resources and prevent crimes.

Police were investigating a series of burglaries in a residential area. They believed that the
burglaries were being committed by the same individual or group and that the burglars were
targeting homes with unlocked doors or windows and shops.

PROBLEM STATEMENT
To assess the probability of the burglaries continuing, police looked at data from previous
incidents. They found that in the past year, there had been 200 burglaries in the area. Out of
these 200 burglaries, 140 occurred during the day and 60 occurred at night, and that 60% of
these burglaries had occurred by forced entry (e.g., breaking a window or picking a lock) and
40% did not involve forced entry (e.g., entering through an unlocked door or window). After
analyzing the above data, the police department was asked to predict future crimes:

TO FIND OUT
1) If a burglary is reported tomorrow, what is the probability that it will occur during the
day? And if a burglary is reported tomorrow, what is the probability that it will
involve forced entry?

SOLUTION
Total number of burglaries (Length of sample space), n(S) = 200

Event 1: number of burglaries occurred in day, n ( E1 ) =140

Event 2: number of burglaries occurred in night, n ( E2 ) =60

Event 3: number of burglaries occurred by forced entry, n ( E3 ) =200 ×0.6=120

Event 4: number of burglaries did not involve forced entry, n ( E 4 )=200 × 0. 4=180
Probability that burglary occurred in day,

140
p ( E1 )= =0.7
200

Probability that burglary occurred in night,

60
p ( E 2 )= =0.3
200

Probability that burglary occurred by forced entry,

120
p ( E3 ) = =0.6
200

Probability that burglary not occurred by forced entry,

80
p ( E4 )= =0.4
200