Mes 2017 2018 2019 2020 Dt*

Enero 17237 16447 15965 18427 17019

Febrero 17956 18350 18486 20547 18835
Marzo 21049 19572 20184 12290 18274
Abril 17098 20209 19788 217 14328
Mayo 19920 20589 22298 8933 17935
Junio 19841 18324 19489 11981 17409
Julio 18625 19358 22904 14481 18842
Agosto 20925 21444 23305 13226 19725
Septiembre 19320 21430 22673 18437 20465
Octubre 19709 21537 23890 20886 21506
Noviembre 21134 26290 23989 22351 23441
Diciembre 25424 33112 30713 26889 29035
Dt** 19734

a 20072
b 2.1188

Regresion Lineal Simple

t Dt Pt1 Et SAEP Et*
1 17237 20074 -2837 -5674 2837
2 17956 20076 -2120 -4957 2120
3 21049 20078 971 -1866 971
4 17098 20080 -2982 -5820 2982
5 19920 20083 -163 -3000 163
6 19841 20085 -244 -3081 244
7 18625 20087 -1462 -4299 1462
8 20925 20089 836 -2001 836
9 19320 20091 -771 -3608 771
10 19709 20093 -384 -3221 384
11 21134 20095 1039 -1798 1039
12 25424 20097 5327 2489 5327
13 16447 20100 -3653 -6490 3653
14 18350 20102 -1752 -4589 1752
15 19572 20104 -532 -3369 532
16 20209 20106 103 -2734 103
17 20589 20108 481 -2356 481
18 18324 20110 -1786 -4623 1786
19 19358 20112 -754 -3591 754
20 21444 20114 1330 -1507 1330
21 21430 20116 1314 -1524 1314
22 21537 20119 1418 -1419 1418
23 26290 20121 6169 3332 6169
24 33112 20123 12989 10152 12989
25 15965 20125 -4160 -6997 4160
26 18486 20127 -1641 -4478 1641
27 20184 20129 55 -2782 55
28 19788 20131 -343 -3180 343
29 22298 20133 2165 -673 2165
30 19489 20136 -647 -3484 647
31 22904 20138 2766 -71 2766
32 23305 20140 3165 328 3165
33 22673 20142 2531 -306 2531
34 23890 20144 3746 909 3746
35 23989 20146 3843 1006 3843
36 30713 20148 10565 7728 10565
37 18427 20150 -1723 -4561 1723
38 20547 20153 394 -2443 394
39 12290 20155 -7865 -10702 7865
40 217 20157 -19940 -22777 19940
41 8933 20159 -11226 -14063 11226
42 11981 20161 -8180 -11017 8180
43 14481 20163 -5682 -8519 5682
44 13226 20165 -6939 -9776 6939
45 18437 20167 -1730 -4567 1730
46 20886 20169 717 -2121 717
47 22351 20172 2179 -658 2179
48 26889 20174 6715 3878 6715
49 14349 20176 -5827 -8664 5827
50 19689 20178 -489 -3326 489
51 22933 20180 2753 -84 2753
52 19033 20182 -1149 -3986 1149
53 14716 20184 -5468 -8305 5468
54 20449 20186 263 -2575 263
55 23130 20189 2941 104 2941
56 21099 20191 908 -1929 908
57 22834 20193 2641 -196 2641
58 23343 20195 3148 311 3148
59 23619 20197 3422 585 3422
60 25303 20199 5104 2267 5104
 Regresion Lineal con Est
t Dt IEt DDt PDt Pt2
1 17237 0.86 19987.14 21052.74 18155.98
2 17956 0.95 18813.63 21017.47 20059.38
3 21049 0.93 22731.43 20982.21 19429.25
4 17098 0.73 23549.55 20946.94 15208.39
5 19920 0.91 21918.50 20911.68 19004.98
6 19841 0.88 22491.52 20876.42 18416.23
7 18625 0.95 19507.08 20841.15 19898.75
8 20925 1.00 20934.92 20805.89 20796.03
9 19320 1.04 18630.23 20770.62 21539.64
10 19709 1.09 18085.81 20735.36 22596.35
11 21134 1.19 17792.15 20700.10 24588.13
12 25424 1.47 17280.35 20664.83 30403.48
13 16447 0.86 19071.09 20629.57 17791.04
14 18350 0.95 19226.45 20594.30 19655.50
15 19572 0.93 21136.37 20559.04 19037.40
16 20209 0.73 27834.42 20523.78 14901.15
17 20589 0.91 22654.62 20488.51 18620.39
18 18324 0.88 20771.87 20453.25 18042.93
19 19358 0.95 20274.79 20417.98 19494.72
20 21444 1.00 21454.17 20382.72 20373.06
21 21430 1.04 20664.90 20347.46 21100.80
22 21537 1.09 19763.26 20312.19 22135.20
23 26290 1.19 22132.85 20276.93 24085.48
24 33112 1.47 22505.78 20241.66 29780.89
25 15965 0.86 18512.19 20206.40 17426.09
26 18486 0.95 19368.95 20171.14 19251.62
27 20184 0.93 21797.29 20135.87 18645.55
28 19788 0.73 27254.56 20100.61 14593.92
29 22298 0.91 24535.08 20065.34 18235.81
30 19489 0.88 22092.50 20030.08 17669.63
31 22904 0.95 23988.73 19994.82 19090.68
32 23305 1.00 23316.05 19959.55 19950.09
33 22673 1.04 21863.52 19924.29 20661.97
34 23890 1.09 21922.47 19889.02 21674.05
35 23989 1.19 20195.70 19853.76 23582.83
36 30713 1.47 20875.21 19818.50 29158.30
 37 18427 0.86 21367.00 19783.23 17061.15
38 20547 0.95 21528.39 19747.97 18847.74
39 12290 0.93 13272.33 19712.70 18253.70
40 217 0.73 298.88 19677.44 14286.68
41 8933 0.91 9829.22 19642.18 17851.23
42 11981 0.88 13581.52 19606.91 17296.33
43 14481 0.95 15166.82 19571.65 18686.65
44 13226 1.00 13232.27 19536.38 19527.12
45 18437 1.04 17778.76 19501.12 20223.13
46 20886 1.09 19165.87 19465.86 21212.90
47 22351 1.19 18816.71 19430.59 23080.18
48 26889 1.47 18276.09 19395.33 28535.70
49 14349 0.86 16638.36 19360.06 16696.21
50 19689 0.95 20629.41 19324.80 18443.87
51 22933 0.93 24766.01 19289.54 17861.85
52 19033 0.73 26214.68 19254.27 13979.44
53 14716 0.91 16192.40 19219.01 17466.64
54 20449 0.88 23180.75 19183.74 16923.03
55 23130 0.95 24225.43 19148.48 18282.62
56 21099 1.00 21109.01 19113.22 19104.16
57 22834 1.04 22018.78 19077.95 19784.30
58 23343 1.09 21420.52 19042.69 20751.76
59 23619 1.19 19884.21 19007.42 22577.53
60 25303 1.47 17198.10 18972.16 27913.11
61 0.86 18936.90 16331.27
62 0.95 18901.63 18039.99
63 0.93 18866.37 17470.01
64 0.73 18831.10 13672.20
65 0.91 18795.84 17082.06
AÑO 66 0.88 18760.58 16549.73
2022 67 0.95 18725.31 17878.59
68 1.00 18690.05 18681.19
69 1.04 18654.78 19345.46
70 1.09 18619.52 20290.61
71 1.19 18584.26 22074.88
72 1.47 18548.99 27290.52
 IEt
0.86
0.95
0.93
0.73
0.91
0.88
0.95
1.00
1.04
1.09
1.19
1.47
12.00

a 21088
b -35.264

ple Regresion Lineal con Estacionalidad

DMA1 IEt DDt PDt Pt2 Et SAEP
2837 0.862 19987.14 21052.74 18155.98 -918.98 -918.98
2479 0.954 18813.63 21017.47 20059.38 -2103.38 -3022.35
1904 0.926 22731.43 20982.21 19429.25 1619.75 -1402.60
2910 0.726 23549.55 20946.94 15208.39 1889.61 487.01
1500 0.909 21918.50 20911.68 19004.98 915.02 1402.03
1540 0.882 22491.52 20876.42 18416.23 1424.77 2826.80
2149 0.955 19507.08 20841.15 19898.75 -1273.75 1553.05
1837 1.000 20934.92 20805.89 20796.03 128.97 1682.03
1804 1.037 18630.23 20770.62 21539.64 -2219.64 -537.61
1611 1.090 18085.81 20735.36 22596.35 -2887.35 -3424.96
1938 1.188 17792.15 20700.10 24588.13 -3454.13 -6879.09
4082 1.471 17280.35 20664.83 30403.48 -4979.48 -11858.57
3245 0.86 19071.09 20629.57 17791.04 -1344.04 -13202.61
2294 0.95 19226.45 20594.30 19655.50 -1305.50 -14508.11
1684 0.93 21136.37 20559.04 19037.40 534.60 -13973.50
1470 0.73 27834.42 20523.78 14901.15 5307.85 -8665.66
1659 0.91 22654.62 20488.51 18620.39 1968.61 -6697.05
2312 0.88 20771.87 20453.25 18042.93 281.07 -6415.98
1796 0.95 20274.79 20417.98 19494.72 -136.72 -6552.70
2083 1.00 21454.17 20382.72 20373.06 1070.94 -5481.75
2075 1.04 20664.90 20347.46 21100.80 329.20 -5152.56
2128 1.09 19763.26 20312.19 22135.20 -598.20 -5750.75
4503 1.19 22132.85 20276.93 24085.48 2204.52 -3546.24
7913 1.47 22505.78 20241.66 29780.89 3331.11 -215.13
3499 0.86 18512.19 20206.40 17426.09 -1461.09 -1676.22
2239 0.95 19368.95 20171.14 19251.62 -765.62 -2441.84
1446 0.93 21797.29 20135.87 18645.55 1538.45 -903.39
1590 0.73 27254.56 20100.61 14593.92 5194.08 4290.69
2501 0.91 24535.08 20065.34 18235.81 4062.19 8352.88
1742 0.88 22092.50 20030.08 17669.63 1819.37 10172.26
2802 0.95 23988.73 19994.82 19090.68 3813.32 13985.57
3001 1.00 23316.05 19959.55 19950.09 3354.91 17340.48
2684 1.04 21863.52 19924.29 20661.97 2011.03 19351.51
3292 1.09 21922.47 19889.02 21674.05 2215.95 21567.46
3340 1.19 20195.70 19853.76 23582.83 406.17 21973.63
6701 1.47 20875.21 19818.50 29158.30 1554.70 23528.33
2280 0.86 21367.00 19783.23 17061.15 1365.85 24894.18
1616 0.95 21528.39 19747.97 18847.74 1699.26 26593.44
5351 0.93 13272.33 19712.70 18253.70 -5963.70 20629.74
11388 0.73 298.88 19677.44 14286.68 -14069.68 6560.06
7031 0.91 9829.22 19642.18 17851.23 -8918.23 -2358.17
5509 0.88 13581.52 19606.91 17296.33 -5315.33 -7673.49
4260 0.95 15166.82 19571.65 18686.65 -4205.65 -11879.15
4888 1.00 13232.27 19536.38 19527.12 -6301.12 -18180.27
2284 1.04 17778.76 19501.12 20223.13 -1786.13 -19966.40
1777 1.09 19165.87 19465.86 21212.90 -326.90 -20293.30
2508 1.19 18816.71 19430.59 23080.18 -729.18 -21022.49
4776 1.47 18276.09 19395.33 28535.70 -1646.70 -22669.19
4332 0.86 16638.36 19360.06 16696.21 -2347.21 -25016.40
1663 0.95 20629.41 19324.80 18443.87 1245.13 -23771.27
2795 0.93 24766.01 19289.54 17861.85 5071.15 -18700.12
1993 0.73 26214.68 19254.27 13979.44 5053.56 -13646.56
4153 0.91 16192.40 19219.01 17466.64 -2750.64 -16397.20
1550 0.88 23180.75 19183.74 16923.03 3525.97 -12871.23
2889 0.95 24225.43 19148.48 18282.62 4847.38 -8023.85
1873 1.00 21109.01 19113.22 19104.16 1994.84 -6029.00
2739 1.04 22018.78 19077.95 19784.30 3049.70 -2979.30
2993 1.09 21420.52 19042.69 20751.76 2591.24 -388.06
3130 1.19 19884.21 19007.42 22577.53 1041.47 653.41
3970 1.47 17198.10 18972.16 27913.11 -2610.11 -1956.70
Regresion Lineal con Estacionalidad
Et SAEP Et* DMA2 SR2
-918.98 -918.98 918.98 919 -1.00
-2103.38 -3022.35 2103.38 1511 -2.00
1619.75 -1402.60 1619.75 1547 -0.91
1889.61 487.01 1889.61 1633 0.30
915.02 1402.03 915.02 1489 0.94
1424.77 2826.80 1424.77 1479 1.91
-1273.75 1553.05 1273.75 1449 1.07
128.97 1682.03 128.97 1284 1.31
-2219.64 -537.61 2219.64 1388 -0.39
-2887.35 -3424.96 2887.35 1538 -2.23
-3454.13 -6879.09 3454.13 1712 -4.02
-4979.48 -11858.57 4979.48 1985 -5.98
-1344.04 -13202.61 1344.04 1935 -6.82
-1305.50 -14508.11 1305.50 1890 -7.67
534.60 -13973.50 534.60 1800 -7.76
5307.85 -8665.66 5307.85 2019 -4.29
1968.61 -6697.05 1968.61 2016 -3.32
281.07 -6415.98 281.07 1920 -3.34
-136.72 -6552.70 136.72 1826 -3.59
1070.94 -5481.75 1070.94 1788 -3.07
329.20 -5152.56 329.20 1719 -3.00
-598.20 -5750.75 598.20 1668 -3.45
2204.52 -3546.24 2204.52 1691 -2.10
3331.11 -215.13 3331.11 1759 -0.12
-1461.09 -1676.22 1461.09 1748 -0.96
-765.62 -2441.84 765.62 1710 -1.43
1538.45 -903.39 1538.45 1703 -0.53
5194.08 4290.69 5194.08 1828 2.35
4062.19 8352.88 4062.19 1905 4.38
1819.37 10172.26 1819.37 1902 5.35
3813.32 13985.57 3813.32 1964 7.12
3354.91 17340.48 3354.91 2007 8.64
2011.03 19351.51 2011.03 2007 9.64
2215.95 21567.46 2215.95 2014 10.71
406.17 21973.63 406.17 1968 11.17
1554.70 23528.33 1554.70 1956 12.03
 1365.85 24894.18 1365.85 1940 12.83
1699.26 26593.44 1699.26 1934 13.75
-5963.70 20629.74 5963.70 2037 10.13
-14069.68 6560.06 14069.68 2338 2.81
-8918.23 -2358.17 8918.23 2499 -0.94
-5315.33 -7673.49 5315.33 2566 -2.99 1. ¿Qué pasa con la DMA s
-4205.65 -11879.15 4205.65 2604 -4.56
-6301.12 -18180.27 6301.12 2688 -6.76 Si no se considerarán las v
-1786.13 -19966.40 1786.13 2668 -7.48
-326.90 -20293.30 326.90 2617 -7.75
-729.18 -21022.49 729.18 2577 -8.16
-1646.70 -22669.19 1646.70 2557 -8.86
-2347.21 -25016.40 2347.21 2553 -9.80
1245.13 -23771.27 1245.13 2527 -9.41
5071.15 -18700.12 5071.15 2577 -7.26
5053.56 -13646.56 5053.56 2624 -5.20
-2750.64 -16397.20 2750.64 2627 -6.24
3525.97 -12871.23 3525.97 2643 -4.87
4847.38 -8023.85 4847.38 2684 -2.99
1994.84 -6029.00 1994.84 2671 -2.26
3049.70 -2979.30 3049.70 2678 -1.11
2591.24 -388.06 2591.24 2676 -0.14
1041.47 653.41 1041.47 2649 0.25
-2610.11 -1956.70 2610.11 2648 -0.74
ad
Et* DMA2
918.98 919
2103.38 1511
1619.75 1547
1889.61 1633
915.02 1489
1424.77 1479
1273.75 1449
128.97 1284
2219.64 1388
2887.35 1538
3454.13 1712
4979.48 1985
1344.04 1935
1305.50 1890
534.60 1800
5307.85 2019
1968.61 2016
281.07 1920
136.72 1826
1070.94 1788
329.20 1719
598.20 1668
2204.52 1691
3331.11 1759
1461.09 1748
765.62 1710
1538.45 1703
5194.08 1828
4062.19 1905
1819.37 1902
3813.32 1964
3354.91 2007
2011.03 2007
2215.95 2014
406.17 1968
1554.70 1956
1365.85 1940
1699.26 1934
5963.70 2037
14069.68 2338
8918.23 2499
5315.33 2566
4205.65 2604
6301.12 2688
1786.13 2668
326.90 2617
729.18 2577
1646.70 2557
2347.21 2553
1245.13 2527
5071.15 2577
5053.56 2624
2750.64 2627
3525.97 2643
4847.38 2684
1994.84 2671
3049.70 2678
2591.24 2676
1041.47 2649
2610.11 2648
¿Qué pasa con la DMA si NO se consideran las ventas del 2019? Comente.

no se considerarán las ventas del respectivo año (2019), básicamente el DMA estaría en un déficit en las ventas puest
ficit en las ventas puesto que al llevarse un control mensual durante cada año, las proyecciones de los ingresos regula
es de los ingresos regulan los datos, por lo tanto no daría un optimo DMA al faltar disco año.