Chance and Probability

Introduction of learning: Year 6

Using Piaget’s constructivist learning theory, students will be introduced to progressively challenging activities in groups and pairs, which build on current
knowledge of chance to form new and deeper understanding of the topic. It will promote critical thinking, logical reasoning and increase fluency and
proficiency of ability to understand and predict chance events. This is in conjunction with the learning and thinking levels Piaget has identified for this group
of children, which is concrete and formal operational.

Curriculum Descriptors:

1. Conduct chance experiments with both small and large numbers of trials using appropriate digital technologies (ACMSP145)

Elaborations: conducting repeated trials of chance experiments, identifying the variation between trials and realising that the results tend to the prediction
with larger numbers of trials

2. Compare observed frequencies across experiments with expected frequencies (ACMSP146)

Elaborations: predicting likely outcomes from a run of chance events and distinguishing these from surprising results.

Prior knowledge linked to the topic: Year 5

1. List outcomes of chance experiments involving equally likely outcomes and represent probabilities of those outcomes using fractions.

2. Recognise that probabilities range from 0 to 1.

 Proficiencies or key ideas: Proficiency, Understanding, Fluency, Reasoning
Reasoning and Understanding: Use reasoning and logical thinking to understand the concepts of chance events, randomness and theoretical and
experimental probability. Furthermore, students will be able to use critical thinking and logical reasoning to predict outcomes of trials using theoretical
probability and compare small and large trials of experiments.

Proficiency and Fluency: Students will use their understanding to show proficiency and fluency by transferring knowledge of probability to varied and
extended contexts. They will be fluent in the language of probability so they can use it to explain and discuss their learning concepts.

Learning trajectory: (Shows learning getting progressively more difficult. Suitable Learning Tasks/ Use of varied technology /Catering for diversity: i.e.
some scaffolding or extension activities.)

Aim Description Examples of activities and weblinks

Lesson 1 To confirm prior Understanding: Use appropriate language and  Play game to test knowledge: https://create.kahoot.it/details/chance-and-
knowledge logical thinking to describe and identify random probability/60e9f683-2fe4-463a-a8e1-4f037f6e3fca
expected from Year events from 0 -1 e.g Impossible, likely, equally  Have students work in groups to come up with their own timeline
5 curriculum likely, highly likely, definitely demonstrating knowledge of chance events and using basic fractions to identify
descriptor. them.
 Inclusion: EALD probability words in their language, and visual pictures to put
along the probability line.
Lesson 2 Understand Use a coin to do small trials, noticing that the  Use a coin to conduct 10, 20, 30 and 50 trials and record and compare
random events sample space of a coin being tossed has an equal observed frequencies with expected frequencies.
cannot be chance of being a head or a tail or 50/50 or ½  Record observations as fractions e.g heads came up 6 times in a trial of 10
predicted although chance each trial. therefore the fraction is 6/10.
they can be equally  Compare trials with a partner and discuss and record observations, noting any
likely. surprising results.

Use fractions to
predict outcomes.

Lesson 3 Understand and Conduct trials and record results to compare  Explanation of Theoretical probability with diagrams on Webquest
apply theoretical probabilities for a sample space with equally accompanied with video https://youtu.be/P0d_ViBzWjI
probability to likely outcomes, using fractions. Compare these  In a group, use theoretical probability to predict outcome of using 1 dice doing
understand that against predicted outcomes and distinguish these trials with 1 number and record results over 10, 15, 20 and 50 trials. Record
chance from surprising results. results and compare and explain observations of outcomes.
experiments may  Kahoot game on Theoretical and Experimental Probability to cement
differ from understanding- see Webquest.
expected results.

Lesson 4 Understand and Use spinners with equal portions, predict  Use Webquest to do 5, 10, 20 trials and record data.
use theoretical and outcomes for each number in the spinner using https://nrich.maths.org/virtualdice/responsive.html - Equally
experimental theoretical probability.  Interactive game using equally portioned spinners and questions to extend
probability to see thinking https://create.kahoot.it/details/simple-spinner-probability/d811d788-
that results tend to Conduct small and large trials. 5498-4b3d-83de-288535d1c1e0
the prediction with Record results and compare data for each trial.
larger trials.

Lesson 5 Use understanding Working in groups, create a tree diagram to 1. Plot tree diagram to predict outcomes for each sample space.
of theoretical and predict the outcome of events of two coins. 2. Using 2 coins, work in groups to record data for 50 trials.
experimental 3. Combine with another group and compare results from combined trials (100
 probability to Investigate the difference large number of trials trials)
predict outcomes has on the outcome, compared to smaller trials 4. https://www.geogebra.org/m/UsoH4eNl Use this to do 10,000 trials and
for 2 coins using a when using two dice. compare results.
tree diagram.
Extension:
1. Interactive game simulating dice rolls with two numbers in large number of
trials.
https://www.geogebra.org/m/qt2hmx8k#material/emvwvasw
Mai Game and questions.

Lesson 6 Use Spinners with Use theoretical probability to predict outcomes of Make spinners with proportions and conduct trials in groups recording outcomes and
unequal colours on a spinner divided into ½ and ¼ comparing those with another group.
proportions to amounts.
https://www.nctm.org/adjustablespinner/
conduct small and
large trials. Investigate the outcomes of small and large trials
and compare experimental probability with Challenge: Adjust spinner into thirds, eighths, halves or quarters.
theoretical

Lesson 7 Finalise and assess

student knowledge
and thinking about
probability

Conclusion: I will use Weebly to present a Webquest in which students will work in groups to conduct experiments, record data and submit worksheets.

References – Not finished yet.

ORIGO Education. (2008). The ORIGO handbook.

Inclusion of a reference list with reference to the curriculum and other readings on teaching your topic, such as the relevant chapters in the textbook
(Siemon et al.).