Hypothetical Learning Trajectory

Materi : Peluang
Kelompok :4
Anggota :
1. Indri Rohmatul Fakhri F (20030174009)
2. Rizky Putri Aura Alivana (20030174065)
3. Ulynnuha Aulia Ihsani (20030174088)

MATH ACTIVITIES

Meetings Goals

Meeting 1 Introducing the concept of random event to students which connected to the idea that the rule for determining first player is
said to be fair if none of the players know in advance who will be the first player.

Meeting 2 Students can understand the concept of sample point, sample space, and events of an experiment.
Students doing an experiment tossing coin and rolling dice, coin(s) are represented by image(s) and number(s) while dice
are represented by numbers 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6.
Meeting 3 Students can determine sample point and sample space by using tree diagrams and tables.
General level from the previous activity (higher level), introduced “formal tools” from to tabulated sample points resulting
from tossing coin and rolling dice.

Meeting 4 Students can construct their understanding about empirical probability to represent the probability of a particular event
which is obtained from an experiment.

Meeting 5 Students can determine the theoretical probability. After students do the experiment in meeting/activity 4, they can solved
the problem of theoretical
 TABLE OF HLT (Hypothetical Learning Trajectory) IN PROBABILITY
Activity Learning Goals
Deciding a fair Introducing the concept of random
rule to event to students which connected
determine the to the idea that the rule for
first player of determining first player is said to
Ludo game be fair if none of the players know
in advance who will be the first
player.
Rolling a Dice Students can understand the
concept of sample point, sample
space, and events of an
experiment.
Students doing an experiment
rolling dice. Dice are represented
by numbers 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6.
Conjectured of Student’s Thinking
The strategies that they might try
● They said that the first player could
be determined by tossing a coin.
● They said that the first player could
be determined by rolling a dice.
● The other might answer that the first
player could be determined using a
rock-paper-scissors game.
The student might answer :
● The students could correctly list all
possible 6 outcomes from rolling a
dice, i.e. is 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6.
Furthermore, the students could
also write down a set containing
all possible outcomes of rolling a
dice.
● They might find the difficult to
answer the question. They think
there's only one outcome because
when they roll a dice only one side
or one outcome.
Guidance for Teacher
In pairs, the students were asked to discuss
rules to fairly determine the first player of the
games “Can you tell me any possibility
strategies to determine the first player of the
games?” Teacher can ask students to find
their reason for choosing the strategies “Why
did you choose the strategies? And what is
your understanding about the word
‘possibly’?”
It can potentially be used as the starting point
to discuss and learn the concept of random
event
The students were asked to roll the dice and
then mention all possible outcomes.
The teacher can ask the student based on the
number of steps to be done in the Ludo game
determined by rolling a dice.
"How many possible outcomes can we get
from rolling a dice?"
"Write down the possible outcomes!"
If the student found the difficulties, the
teacher can give some question :
"What do you understand about the given
 question?"
"How did you understand the word
'outcomes'?"
Then
"If you roll a dice what is the probability that
only one number comes up?"

Corresponding Students can determine sample After rolling a dice, students were asked to
Favorable point and sample space of the dice record their results in a table.
Outcomes of without involving the Ludo game
Two or More by using tables. “Fill in the table of the outcomes of rolling
Experimental General level from the previous two dice!”
Tools of activity (higher level), introduced
Rolling Dice “formal tools” from to tabulated After students rolled dice to fill in the table,
sample points resulting from students were asked to mention possible
rolling dice. These might the student answer : outcomes of an event by completing the table
● Students did not have difficulties without using any dice, such as rolling three
in using table to tabulate the dice.
possible outcomes of rolling dice “How many the result of throwing two dice?”
because they have developed the “How did you can find it without using any
notion about sample points, experiment”
sample space, and random event
from previous activities. The teacher can re-explain step in second
● Students might find the difficulties activities to handle student with difficulties.
because they don't understand the
result of second activities.

Playing Ludo Students can construct their Student must be record the game was Give students some question to show what is
Games understanding about empirical played : the empirical probability :
probability to represent the ● In tables ● If we rolled dice 12 times, did we
probability of a particular event certainly get face “4” twice ?
which is obtained from an
Event Tally Frequenc ● Does the number 6 appear frequently in
experiment. an experiment?
y (f)
● In 40 trials how many times did the
Face “1” number 3 appear?
● What is the ratio of the number of events
of number 4 compared to the number of
trials?
Face “2”
Next step, the teacher must be focused to ask
questions on the ratio of the occurrence of a
Face “3” particular face of the dice to the total
occurrences. Then the teacher determines that
the ratio they get is “Empirical Probability”.

Face “4”

Face “5”

Face “6”

Total
 ● Write normally
Face “1” A ….. Times
B ….. Times
Face “2” A ..… Times
B ….. Times
.
.
.
Face “6” A……Times
B ….. Times

Calculating Students can determine the A thousand rolling was chosen on purpose For this purpose, a connection to Activity 4
Ratio of the theoretical probability. because it was not easy to roll a dice 1000 was made, such as :
Number of times manually. ● You could determine the occurrence of
Favorable face ‘1’ after rolling the dice 60 times.
Outcomes to Therefore, it triggered the students to The question now is how many times
the Number of estimate the possible number of will face ‘1’ appear if we roll the dice for
Possible occurrences of face ‘1’. 1000 times?
Outcomes Worksheet was used to help students grasp
● The students will narrow down from the idea of theoretical probability from rolling
1000 times of rolling to 500 times or a dice.
even smaller number
● The student will predict the
probability for face ‘1’ to occur when
the dice was rolled once 1 from 6
appears.

From the worksheet, and teacher’s

question,
● What dice’s faces situation that make the
The student will answer when ‘dice’s
faces showing a total of 3’ for this even.
The theoretical probability is 1/18 and we
have two dice with 36 elements of the
sample space. It means 18 is a half of 36,
so the sample point is 1 multiplied by 2, it
means there are 2 samples point.
The student will count two dice’s faces ● When two dice’s have two sample point?
that have two sample points
a total two dice’s faces is 3’
(1,2)
(2,1)
1
probability is 18 ?
If the answer is wrong teacher may ask
● How many elements of two dice’s
sample space?
● How many sample point of two dice’s
1
that make the probability is 18 ?
If the answer is right :
● What are these two events (sample
points)?

Students will find the form of theoretical

probability that the theoretical probability The students’ works, observation and the
is Number of times event A occurs divide results of observation and interview indicate
by number of trials. that the students have gained their
understanding about theoretical probability.
The teacher may ask :
● Can you conclude what theoretical
probability is?
How can we invrease students'
comprehension on probability
material using LUDO?
1 Deciding a Fair
Rule to Determine
The First Player
of Ludo Game
Goals
Find concept of random event
Identify the concept of
possibility
Math Idea
The basic notion in probability is
that a random event
Find the example of random
event
Example
"Can you tell me any
possibility strategies to
determine the first player of
the game?"
Why did you choose the
strategy?"
"What is your understanding
about the word 'possibly'?"
N I N G TRAJEC
TOR
y
R
l i t
A
i
E Y
a b
L
Pro b rial
M a te
2 3 Corresponding 4 5 Calculating Ratio of
Rolling a Dice favorable outcomes the Number of
of two or more Playing ludo Favorable Outcomes
experimental of to the Number of
Possible Outcomes
rolling dice
Goals Goals Goals Goals
Identify the word 'outcomes' Find concept of empirical Find concept of theoritical
Determine sample point and
related with sample point sample space of the dice without probability based an probability by doing student
using a direct experiment experiment worksheet
Determine sample point,
sample space, and events Determine outcomes from rolling
from experiment two dice by using a table
Find the "formal tools" of sample
point
Math Idea
Math Idea Comparing empirical probability
with theoritical probability
Empirical probability based on
Math Idea Math Idea experiment Generalize theoritical probability
Sample point and sample Example
space
Find the sample point with a Example
"formal tool" (using table) How many times will face ‘1’
Set representation If we rolled dice 12 times, did appear if we roll the dice for
Example
Example we certainly get face “4” twice ?
Does the number 6 appear
1000 times?
According to the table, what
"How did you understand the "Fill in the table of outcomes frequently in an experiment? dice’s faces situation that
word outcomes?" of rolling two dice!" In 40 trials how many times did make the probability is 1/18?
"How many possible outomes "How many result of rolling the number 3 appear? When two dice’s have two
can we get from rolling a two dice?" What is the ratio of the number sample point? What the
dice?" "How did you can find the of events of number 4 sample point are?
"Please write down all the outcomes without using any compared to the number of Can you conclude what
possible outcomes with a experiment?" trials? theoretical probability is?
set!"
STUDENT WORKSHEET

PROBABILITY

AUTHOR :
1. INDRI ROHMATUL FAKHRI F (20030174009) GRADE
VIII
2. RIZKY PUTRI AURA ALIVANA (20030174065)
3. ULYNNUHA AULIA IHSANI (20030174088)
 GROUP MEMBER :
1 ................................................
2 ................................................
3 ................................................. CLASS : ...................................

LEARNING ACHIEVEMENT KELAS :

PHASE D

Students can explain and use the notion of probability to

determine the expected frequency of one event in a simple
experiment and can compare theoretical and empirical odds

LEARNING GOALS

1. Student can understand the concept of random events

2. Students can understand the concept of sample point, sample
space, and events of an experiment
3. Student can determine sample point and sample space using
table
4. Student can determine the empirical probability
5. Student can determine the theoretical probability

Lembar Kerja Peserta Didik (LKPD) 2

 WORK GUIDANCE
1. Make a group that consists 3 students !
2. Fill the group identity in the column on page 2 !
3. Read and follow every guidance well and clearly !
4. Do all activities based on the guidance !

ACTIVITY 1
DECIDING THE FAIR RULE
LEARNING GOALS
Introduce the concept of random events to students that are
associated with the determination of the first player fairly.

You and your friends

decided to play Ludo
together. How do you
guys determine the first
player fairly?

ANSWER

Lembar Kerja Peserta Didik (LKPD) 3

Why did you choose those strategis ?

ANSWER

ACTIVITY 2
TOSSING COIN AND ROLLING DICE
LEARNING GOALS
Students can understand the concept of sample point, sample space,
and events of an experiment from rolling dice

The number of step to be done in Ludo game is determined by

tossing a die. Write down all possible outcomes of tossing a die!

ANSWER

How many possible outcomes you can get from tossing a dice ?

ANSWER

Lembar Kerja Peserta Didik (LKPD) 4

 Write down all the possible outcomes as a set !

ANSWER

You can use the given dice to make it easier to

answer the question above

ACTIVITY 3
CORRESPONDING FAVORABLE OUTCOMES OF
TWO OR MORE EXPERIMENTAL TOOLS
LEARNING GOALS
Students can determine sample point and sample space of the dice
and coins without involving the Ludo game by using tree diagrams and
tables.

In the previous activity you could write all the

possible outcomes from tossing a die. Then what
if you toss two dice? How about the possible
outcomes?

Lembar Kerja Peserta Didik (LKPD) 5

 Fill in the table to find all the possible outomes
fot tossing two dice!

1 2 3 4 5 6

ACTIVITY 4
CORRESPONDING FAVORABLE OUTCOMES OF
TWO OR MORE EXPERIMENTAL TOOLS

LEARNING GOALS
Students can determine sample point and sample space of the dice
and coins without involving the Ludo game by using tree diagrams and
tables.

Lembar Kerja Peserta Didik (LKPD) 6

 You can start playing ludo with your group.
What numbers appear until the game ends?

with 1 dice, write down the number that appears!

DIE STAKE FREQUENCY

1

6
NUMBER OF TRIALS

What is the ratio of occurrence of the number 1 to the number

of trials?

ANSWER

Lembar Kerja Peserta Didik (LKPD) 7

What is the ratio of occurrence of the number 2 to the number of
trials?

ANSWER

What is the ratio of occurrence of the number 3 to the number of

trials?

ANSWER

What is the ratio of occurrence of the number 4 to the number of

trials?

ANSWER

What is the ratio of occurrence of the number 5 and 6 to the number

of trials?

ANSWER

Lembar Kerja Peserta Didik (LKPD) 8

 ACTIVITY 5
CALCULATING RATIO OF THE NUMBER OF FAVORABLE
OUTCOMES TO THE NUMBER OF POSSIBLE OUTCOMES
LEARNING GOALS

Students can determine the theoritical probability of the dice.

You could determine the occurrence of face ‘1’

after rolling the die 60 times. The question now
is how many times will face ‘1’ appear if we roll
the die for 1000 times?

ANSWER

See the table above !

The sample Number of

Experiment Sample n(S) An event X
Theoritical
space S point of X sample point(s) probability
n(A)
Tosing a Face
[A,G] 2 A 1 1/2
coin 'number'
Tosing two
... ... ... ... ... 1/18
dice

Lembar Kerja Peserta Didik (LKPD) 9

How many elements of two dice’s sample space?

ANSWER

How many sample point of two dice’s that make the probability
is 1/18 ?

ANSWER

When two dice’s have two sample point? And what the sample
point are?

ANSWER

Can you conclude what theoritical probability is?

ANSWER

- Good Luck -

Lembar Kerja Peserta Didik (LKPD) 10