Lecture 6

ON
MATH-208

(Probability and Statistics)

BY
Kiran Kumar Shrestha

Department of Mathematics

School of Science

Kathmandu University

TO
ME - II Group (Design & Hydro)

Topics Covered

 Conditional probability
 Dependent events
 Multiplication law of probability
 Related problems

Date: Tuesday, Feb. 28, 2023

Conditional Probability
Demo Example-

A group of 100 persons. 70 are graduates. 40 are employed and 20 are both.

A person is selected randomly. Let A be the event that the selected person is a graduate and B be the
event that the selected person is employed.

Here,

( )

( )

( )

If it is known from some source that the selected person is employed, then probability of him/her being a
graduate is denoted as P(A | B) (read as- A given B) and is given by

( )
( )
( )

( ) ( ) ( )
( ) ( ) ( )

Defn.
The conditional probability of an event A when the outcome of the event B is known (or given) is denoted
as P(A|B) and is defined as the fraction number of simultaneous occurrence of both events A and B to the
number of occurrences of the known event B, i.e.,

( )
( )
( )

Notes:

#.1 If the number of occurrences of different events is not possible to count, then we use following
relation-

( )
( )
( )
#.2 Similarly, the conditional probability of occurrence of event B when the outcome of event A is known
is denoted as P(B | A) and is given by

( )
( )
( )

#.3 If two events A and B are independent, then

( ) ( ) ( ) ( )

Example / Problem

Two balls are drawn one by one without replacing. Find probability that the second ball drawn is white
given that (i) the first ball drawn was white (ii) the first ball drawn was black.

Solution- Let A1 denote event of selecting white ball in 1st draw and A2 denote event of drawing a white
ball in second draw.

Here,

( )

#.(i)

( )

( )

#.(ii)

( ) ( ̅̅̅)

Note – (i) Here A1 and A2 are called dependent events.

(ii) In above problem if first ball is replaced then P(A1)=5/12

Similarly,

( ) ( ̅̅̅) and as such A1 and A2 are independent events.

(iii)
Dependent Events
Defn.
Two events defined on the same sample space are said to be dependent events if the probability of
occurrence of one is affected by (or depends on) occurrence or non-occurrence of another event.

In other words, two events are said to be dependent events if probability of occurrence of one when
another event occurs is different from its probability when the other event does not occur.

Notes:

#.1 If two events A and B are dependent then probability of occurrence event A when event B is known to
occur is denoted as P(A | B) and when event B is known not to occur is denoted as ( ̅ ) and these
probabilities are called conditional probabilities.

#.2 If A and B are dependent events, then

( )
( )
( )

( )
( )
( )

( ̅ ) ( )

(̅ ) ( )

( ̅) ( ) ( )
( ̅)
( ̅) ( )

( ̅ ) ( ) ( )
( ̅)
̅
( ) ( )

#.2 If A and B independent events then

( ) ( ) ( )
( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
( ) ( )

Similarly,

( ) ( )
Problem-
During a study of auto-accidents it was observed that in a city 60% of accidents occur at night, 52%
of accidents are alcohol related. In the same way, 37% of accidents occurring at night are alcohol
related. It is recently reported that an accident occurred at night, what is the probability that it is
alcohol related?

Solution-

Let A denote event of accident related to alcohol and N event that accident occur at night.

Given P(N) = 0.60, P(A) = 0.52 and

( )

Now, P(accident related to alcohol given it occurred at night)

( )
( )
( )

Multiplication Theorem of Probability

Statement-

Let A and B be any two events defined on same sample space, then multiplication theorem of probability
states that

( ) ( ) ( )

and

( ) ( ) ( )

Proof:

We have

( )
( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
( )

Next,

( )
( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
( )

Note:
#. I If A and B are independent events then, P(B|A)= P(B), so

( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )

Problems-

Example/Problem-

#.I

Two balls are drawn one after another (i) by replacing the first ball drawn (ii) without replacing the first
ball drawn. Find probability that both balls drawn are white.

Solution-

Let A1 be event that the first ball drawn is white and A2 be event that the second ball drawn is white.

Here,

( )

#.(i) by replacing

Here

( )

( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) [ ]

#.(ii) without replacing

Here,

( )

So,

( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
 [ ]

#.II

A sample of size 2 is taken from a lot containing 100 items. It is known that 98 out of 100 items are
good. Find probability of selection of both good items, if the first item drawn is (a) replaced (b) not
replaced before drawing second item.

Solution-

Let G1 be event that the first item drawn is good and G2 be event that second item drawn is good.

Here,

( )

(a) by replacing

( )

So,

( ) ( ) ( ) ( )

(b) without replacing

Here,

( ) ( )

So,

( ) ( ) ( ) ( )

#.III
4 balls are drawn first and then another 4 balls are drawn (a) by replacing (b) without replacing.
Find probability that the first draw gives 4 white and second draw gives 4 black balls.

Solution-

Let A1 be event of drawing 4 white balls in first draw A2 be event of drawing 4 black balls in second
draw.

Here,

( )

#.(i) by replacing

( )

Now,

( ) ( )

( ) ( )

#.(ii) without replacing

Here

( ) ( )

Now,

( ) ( )

( ) ( )

#.IV
At a restaurant a social worker gathers following information. Of those visiting the restaurant 59%
are men, 32% are alcoholic and 21% are male alcoholic. A male visitor has just arrived, what is the
probability that he is alcoholic?

Solution-

Let M = male and A = alcoholic.

Given

( ) ( ) ( )

Now,

( )
( ) ( )
( )

#.V

According to a survey, the probability that a family owns two cars if its annual income is over Rs.
35 lakhs is 0.75. Of the household surveyed 60% had income over Rs. 35 lakhs and 52% had two
cars. A house is randomly selected, find probability that the selected family has two cars and an
income over Rs. 35 lakhs?

Solution-

Let T = owns two cars and I = income over Rs. 35 lakhs.

Given

( ) ( ) ( )

Now,

( ) ( )

( ) ( )

#.VI

If a red ball is drawn, what is the probability that it is spotted?

Solution-
Let R = red S = spotted

Ball Spotted Stripped Total

Red 3 1 4
Gray 2 4 6
Total 5 5 10

( )
( ) ( )
( )

Assigned Problems
Problems on Conditional Probability
(to be included in 'Asignment-I')

Q.12 The health department routinely conducts two independent inspections of each restaurant, with the restaurant
passing only if both inspectors pass it. Inspector A is very experienced, and, hence passes only 2% of
restaurants that actually do have health code violations. Inspector B is less experienced and passes 7% of
restaurants with health code violations. Wheat is the probability that (a) Inspector A passes a restaurant, given
that inspector B has found a violation? (b) Inspector B passes a restaurant with a violation, given that inspector
A passes it? (c) A restaurant with a violation is passed by health department? Ans. [(a) 0.02 (b) 0.07 (c)
0.0014]
[ Hints : Let A = pass by A, B = pass by B. Given P(A) = 0.02 P(B) = 0.07 (i) P(A|B C) = ? (ii) P(B | A) = ? (iii) ( ) Here A and B
are independent, so (i) P(A|BC) = P(A) (ii) P(B|A) = P(B) (iii) ( ) ( ) ( )

Q.13 The four floodgates of a small hydroelectric dam fail are repaired independently of each other. From
experience, it is known that each floodgate is out of order 4% of the time. (a) If the floodgate I is out of order,
what is the probability that floodgates 2 and 3 are out of order? (b) During a tour of the dam, you are told that
the chances of all four floodgates being out of order are less than 1 in 5,000,000. Is this statement true? [(a)
0.0016 (b) 0.00000256, not true since it is not less than 1/5,000,000]. Hints-
Let F1, F2, F3 and F4 = event of first, second, third and fourth floodgates being out of order. Given ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) (i) (
) . Due to independence, ( ) ( ). Again due to independence ( ) ( ) (ii) ( ) . Due to
independence ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )

Q.14At a soup kitchen, a social worker gathers the following data. Of those visiting the kitchen 59% are men, 32%
are alcoholics, and 21% are male alcoholics. What is the probability that a random male visitor to the kitchen is
a alcoholic? [0.36]
Q.15 According to survey, the probability that a random a family owns two cars if its annual income is over Rs.
35,00,000 is 0.75. Of the household surveyed, 60% had incomes over Rs. 35,00,000 and 52% had two cars.
What is the probability that a family has two card and an income over Rs. 35,00,000 a year? [0.45]
Q.16 Two events A and B are statistically dependent. If P(A) = 0.39, P(B) = 0.21 and P(A or B) = 0.47, find the
probability that (i) neither A nor B will occur (ii) Both A and B will occur. (iii) B will occur given that A has
occurred. (iv) A will occur given that B has occurred. [(i) 0.53 (ii) 0.13 (iii) 0.33 (iv) 0.62].
Hints: (i) ( ̅ ̅ ) By de Morgan's rule ̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅
( ) ( ) (ii) ( ) Use ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
(iii) easy (iv) easy
Q.17 During a study of auto accidents, the Traffic Police found that 60% of all accidents occur at night, 52% are
alcohol related and 37% occur at night and are alcohol related. (a) What is the probability that an accidents was
alcohol related, given that it occurred at night? (b) What is the probability that an accident occurred at night,
given that it was alcohol related? [(a) 0.71 (b) 0.62]

Q.18 An electronic assembly consists of two subsystems, say A and B. From previous testing procedures, the
following probabilities are assumed to be known:
( ) ( ) ( )
Evaluate the following probabilities
) ( ) ) ( )
Ans. a) 0.25, b) 0.15 (Hints: First use ( ) ( ) ( ) to obtain ( ) (i) Use ( )
( ) ( ) (ii) Use P(A only) = P(A-B) = P(A)- ( )

Q.19 The coordinator of Bachelor in Statistics (B.Stat.) has two secretaries, Mary and Jane. The probability that
Mary will be absent on day is 0.08. the probability that Jane will be absent on any given day is 0.06. The
probability that both secretaries will be absent on any given day is 0.02. Find the probability that either one or
both of them will be absent on any given day.
(Ans. 0.12)