singapore’s core foreign policy

overview:
singapore’s foreign policy (fp) is guided by our physical and resource constraints and are complemented/augmented by our historical legacy and
experiences, while leveraging on our connections and strategic advantages.

five foreign policy principles

1. friend to all enemy to none - maintain neutrality
2. successful and vibrant economy
3. respect for national sovereignty (must not become a vassal state)
4. insistence on the rule of law
5. remain as a credible and consistent partner

ultimate objectives for our foreign policy:

1. protect our independence and sovereignty
2. to expand opportunities for our citizens to overcome our geographic limits (a tiny city state in SouthEast Asia and with a multi-racial
population)
3. expand relationships with other countries, both politically and economically, so that s’pore will be relevant to them and they will find its
success in their own interest → maintain relevance

significance:
as a small state with limited resources, singapore needs to stand up and be counted when there is a need to do so. there is no
contradiction between a realistic appreciation of realpolitik and doing whatever it takes to protect our sovereignty, maintain and
expand our relevance, and to create political and economic space for itself

vulnerability actions taken

Singapore is heavily reliant on
international trade and foreign
investments for our economic survival
- successful and vibrant economy
- foreign policy is conducted off the bedrock of our continuing economic success.
- must expand relationships with other countries, both politically and economically, so that
s’pore will be relevant to them and they will find its success in their own interest → tie our
fortunes with those of other countries, - positioning ourselves as a finances and services hub
- must ensure that we are well-connected with many countries so that we have a strong
buffer to support us, must advocate for multilateral and global trading system

➔ Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) through ASEAN

◆ signed between asia pacific nations during COVID when the economic crises drove
countries to protectionism and nationalism
◆ trade remains three times our GDP → is our lifeblood. Sustaining international support for
trade helps to bolster our economic growth, as well as create jobs for Singaporeans.
👍 signifies how the expansion of multilateral economic collaboration helped singapore when she
was especially vulnerable to a changing world during covid. economic relationships helped her
sustain her economic growth which is crucial to her survival
➔ Digital Economy Agreements with Australia, Chile, and New Zealand
◆ Pandemic has sped up movement online and everyone had to rely on digital tools for
work, for school, for purchases, for transactions.
◆ need to develop common frameworks, common global standards, to ensure that
cross-border transactions, engagements, and digital exchanges, are safe, secure,
and efficient.
👍 signifies how new connections help singapore adapt to the changing world, sg is able to
reposition herself to streamline her economic approach so as to achieve max benefits in a changing
world, helps singapore stay afloat and relevant!
➔ s’pore plays an outsized role at the WTO, and in negotiating a web of free trade agreements
at a bilateral and multilateral level. As a country where trade is 3.5 times our GDP, we must
stand up for the multilateral, global trading system
➔ local firms were also strongly encouraged to venture abroad to grow → negotiated free trade

need to actively defend sovereignty
because spore lacks strategic weight; in
the world of international politics, we are
price-takers, not price-setters, and we are
vulnerable to international trends that we
cannot avoid.
- respect for national sovereignty
(must not become a vassal state)
- insistence on the rule of law
agreements with other countries and regional groupings, put in place attractive tax and fiscal
incentives, and cultivated a secure, transparent and business-friendly environment.
➔ entered regional entity → ASEAN which has brought about many economic benefits to s’pore
◆ Singapore’s domestic market swells from 5.6 million consumers to 628 million under
the Asean Economic Community, the ambition is to integrate the 10 economies into a
single market and production base.
◆ The Asean economy is one of the fastest-growing economies in the world. It is
currently the world's seventh-largest economy. It is predicted that, by 2030, Asean
could become the fourth-largest economy in the world.
◆ Asean remains committed to free trade, regional integration and open economies.
➔ Singapore's economic success has attracted attention from others to do business with us,
and to examine our developmental model
◆ must continue to accelerate economic progress to maintain relevance and to attract
more business which will consequently bring about economic growth
- Without safeguards to protect and guarantee territorial integrity and national security, small
countries such as Singapore would have no place in a world of larger and more powerful
nations.
- We benefit from a world order in which interactions among states are based on
international law, and not on relative power or size → the rule of law levels the playing field and
holds all states accountable to the same rules despite their differences in size.
- need to stand firm when it comes to our own vital national interests, particularly where it
impacts on sovereignty, security and the rule of law
- need to advocate for the rule of law
➔ Key player in the negotiations for the Law of the Sea Treaty (UNCLOS) in 1982.
◆ Singapore has always participated actively at the United Nations, and in the
formulation of international regimes and norms.
◆ by playing an active role, spore ensures that her interests are looked after.
 Singapore's port at the narrow straits that ultimately connect the Pacific Ocean to the
Indian Ocean, freedom of navigation according to UNCLOS is absolutely critical to us
because it has great implications on econ. activity
➔ Michael Fay Court rulings (1994)
◆ sentenced to caning for vandalism
◆ despite great pressure from the US, we upheld the decisions of our courts
○ In goodwill we reduced the number of strokes from 6 to 4
● The US threatened to disrupt Singapore’s bid to host the WTO Ministerial
Conference in December 1996
● delayed negotiations of the US-Singapore Free Trade Agreement
◆ sent a message that Singapore may be small, but upholding our laws and
safeguarding our independence, our citizens' safety and security was of overriding
importance
● established clear red-lines and boundaries.
👍 signifies how we cannot succumb to pressure from more powerful countries as by allowing a
foreign country to dictate how we deal with a matter of domestic law and order, we compromise
the rule of law in Singapore and degrade our credibility both at home and abroad.
➔ Russia’s invasion of Crimea
◆ Singapore strongly objected to the invasion. We expressed our view that the
sovereignty and territorial integrity of the Ukraine, and international law, had to be
respected.
◆ shows how spore recognises the importance of the sovereignty of small states and
actively advocates against the domination of global politics by large powers who
abuse their influence to infringe on the independence of small states
➔ Singapore plays a constructive role in international affairs
◆ Forum of Small States
◆ Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS)
◆ Global Governance Group (3G)
 ◆ s’pore tries to band together with states with similar circumstances so that they are
able to have a stronger collective voice to prevent the domination of global politics by
large powers

singapore’s connectedness makes it - need to utilise diplomacy and bi/multilateral relations to combat these issues tgt with the
especially susceptible to international international community bc nobody is safe until everyone is safe (very specific to covid but i
developments something like that lol)

ev. When covid was first detected, Singapore ➔ COVAX vaccine initiative + covid response in general
quickly became the worst hit country outside ◆ We were among the first in the world to launch digital contact tracing solutions, and
china. sg was the top outbound flight from one of the first to develop a contact tracing protocol, which we then open-sourced so
wuhan. became an exporter of disease, disease that others could access it, use it, modify it.
started spreading in s’pore → had to close
◆ Singapore also played a key role in establishing the COVAX collective vaccine
borders which had devastating impacts on
purchase mechanism
residents and economy
● believe in equitable access to vaccines across the globe because nobody is
safe until everyone is safe
● Singapore is a small and open country → life cannot resume and get back to the status
quo ante unless the rest of the world is also made safer.
👍 idk but maybe this signifies that this vulnerability actually makes us more valuable to the
international community since we are definitely more invested in the overall welfare of, like, the
world. Maybe that boosts relevance?? (maybe it could be linked to soft power? Like the whole
COVAX + like flexible in the sense of loaning Australia vaccines and the whole India oxygen cylinder
thing boosts image?

due to our bilateral relations with many
countries, we might get caught in the line
of fire when countries grow hostile
towards each other
- friend to all enemy to none
- need to maintain neutrality while promoting friendly relations as a way to protect and
advance our own important interests
- we support only the rule of law (mentioned above)
- instead, act as the neutral arbitrator → helps increase relevance!
➔ brokered the historic “Wang-Koo talks” in 1993

US-China relations during ongoing Trade
War
- their relationship remains the linchpin
for geopolitical stability but China is
increasing its influence, asserting its
place in the world.
- US military presence has underpinned
peace and stability in our region for
over half a century
- China remains our largest trading
partner and we are, surprisingly, their
largest foreign investor.
[difficult for spore to remain neutral as both are
strategically important to singapore]
challenges posed by diplomacy (conflict +
background)
south china sea dispute! + general security lol + just china/US in general
need for singapore to ramp up defense measures.
why?
china ramping up pressure by growing more
◆ one of the most important milestones in cross-strait relations between China and Taiwan since
1949. The meeting, which took place in Singapore in April 1993 (there was one in 2015 too→
ma-xi meetings)
➔ US-NK Summit
◆ signed a "comprehensive" document on Tuesday (June 12) outlining a joint
commitment to the complete denuclearisation of the Korean peninsula, capping a
once unthinkable meeting of foes with an important but tentative step towards peace
➔ ASEAN Centrality
◆ covid has brought with it greater geopolitical competition and uncertainty
◆ our aim is to expand our relationships, both politically and economically, so that we
will be relevant to them and they will find our success in their own interest. This
delicate balancing act is more difficult when superpowers and regional powers
contend with one another.
● our basic reflex should be to aim for balance and to promote an inclusive
architecture.
● to develop a wide network of relations, these relations must be based on
mutual respect for each other's sovereignty and the equality of nation states,
regardless of size.
singapore’s stance + justification
defense measures:
- Singapore’s security policy is built on the “twin pillars of deterrence and
diplomacy”
- seeks to engage various great powers so that they would have vested
aggressive
- sending their navy in to occupy the SCS
- persistent illegal fishing → encroach the territorial
waters of other countries
- threatening major offshore oil and gas
projects internationally recognized exclusive
economic zones
china mad at S’pore
- SCS dispute → showed support for the landmark
ruling by The Permanent Court of Arbitration in
The Hague (2016) denying Chinese claims to huge
swathes of the South China Sea [retaliated by
seizing Singapore’s military vehicles stationed in
Hong Kong. began conducting more influence
operations through Singaporean business
associations and cultural organisations, with the
aims of promoting a stronger Chinese identity
amongst the local ethnic Chinese population and
shaping Singapore’s policies indirectly.
- increasing embrace of Washington
ASEAN sucks
- ASEAN’s decisions require unanimous
consent; forceful action has been blocked by
two of its members, Cambodia and Laos, that
are beholden to Beijing—giving China a de
facto veto in the bloc.
interests in the survival and well being of the country (diplomacy).
- Coupled with the well-trained and technologically advanced Singapore
Armed Forces (SAF) as a credible (deterrence) force, these twin pillars tilt
the cost-benefit analysis against any potential adversary to display the
imagery of a “poisoned shrimp”.
- highly militarized country that dedicates huge resources to its defence
establishment
- mandatory conscription policy for young male citizens.
- One-third of the current Cabinet is made up of ex-professional soldiers,
indicating that issues of security and defence remain high on the agenda
for the country.
points of tension:
1. globalisation vs militarisation
a. A defence policy that relies heavily on a citizen military force through
conscription is at odds with allowing dual citizenship and not compatible
with a globalised world, in which human mobility is extremely high
b. in order to have a continually vibrant economy, immigrants need to
augment the singapore workforce
i. has earned dissent → unfeasible for new immigrants to be conscripted,
Singaporeans have complained about the unfairness of a free-rider
problem
ii. increasing cost of living + increasing obligations to the state? have
made it less appealing for talent to set roots in the country
c. disallowing dual citizenship also presents many Singaporeans with hard
choices and deprives them of potential gains
i. couples faced with the difficult scenario of either spouse having to
give up citizenship in another country if they wish to settle down in

increasing urgency and immediacy of threat from
china
Beijing believes Singapore has been playing both
China and the US cards to advance its own interests.
Singaporean officials have spoken repeatedly in
support of the ruling and have made efforts to
mobilise international pressure on China.
spore seeks to maximise the number of like-minded
friends so as to maintain freedom of action as a
sovereign and independent nation. Second, it seeks a
balance of power in the region that can ensure that
no major power dominates. The latter is achieved by
seeking to secure the US's presence in the region, a
situation that ensures stability in the region.
given the increasing breadth and scope of Sino-US
competition, it will become more difficult for spore to
remain neutral as both are strategically important to
singapore
China’s “Malacca Strait dilemma”
Singapore (40% of marriages are between foreigners and non-
foreigners)
ii. s’poreans abroad are unable to apply for citizenship in host countries →
significant repercussions on job opportunities, property ownership and
access to other wide-ranging benefits such as in healthcare and social
welfare.
2. changing priorities for changing needs (domestic) → introduce significant changes to the
way resources are allocated to changing needs
a. singapore might need to reduce defense funding (23% of govt
expenditure)
i. need to focus more on social welfare policies and need to cut
defense budget
1. the out-of-pocket share of total health expenditure has
increased to almost 70%
2. faced with an ageing population and increasing costs of
living, Singaporeans have begun appealing for more
government spending, especially in healthcare.
3. pressure to streamline defense policies in an increasingly worsening security
climate
SUMMARY: singapore is facing challenges from globalization, demographic changes,
the need to continue to be economically relevant and a deteriorating security climate in
its neighbourhood
more china but not SCS
Singapore has swelled it’s military capabilities. it is the only Southeast Asian country that
 has been able to keep pace with China’s burgeoning military power more details
a strategic vulnerability arising from China’s lack of above^^
control over the waterway through which 80 percent
of its oil imports flowed. That Strait also happens to
be next to Singapore and its economic lifeline. China
could one day feel the need to remedy the situation.
China’s island-building and increased naval activity in
the South China Sea have not been reassuring. In
one troubling incident, a Japanese helicopter carrier
sailing to Singapore spotted a Chinese submarine
lurking near the entrance to the strait in 2018.

Belt Road Initiative needs to continue to engage in diplomatic activities to remain relevant

china trying to redirect through belt road initiatives,

could have long-term ramifications for Singapore,
since the BRI envisions a new network of trade routes
radiating from China, mostly over land across Central
Asia and continental Southeast Asia rather than
through the Malacca Strait.

chinese port in Zhoushan has already set to work

building the needed infrastructure to capitalize on its
location and capture a big chunk of Singapore’s
marine fueling business. (4th busiest port I think)

“Made in China 2025” industrial policy. aims to turn

China into the world’s high-tech manufacturing
leader. It has been building the capacity to ramp up
production of commonly used electronic integrated
circuits. Since in 2017 those circuits represented over
16 percent of Singaporean exports (mostly to China),
Singapore may be among the first to feel the heat
from China’s economic tinkering.

summary of what deteriorating US-China relations entails for Singapore:

Much of Singapore’s existing relationship with either country will come under greater scrutiny, as a result of factors such as the former’s
purchase of U.S. military equipment or its foreign investments in China (Singapore being China’s largest foreign investor).

disadvantages to singapore
- decrease in trade flows between us and china → sg trade-reliant economy would be severely affected
- more Chinese firms relocate to Singapore
- U.S. imposing sanctions or tariffs on Chinese products or services regardless of their country of manufacture. sg-us relations may
take a backseat while U.S. national security interests take precedence
- increasing reliance on China for foreign investment could endanger Singapore economically as China may exert economic
pressure to align Singapore with China

benefits for singapore

- american investments being channelled out of china → could be invested in singapore (economic decoupling)
- china taking control of HK → companies move to spore instead. attractive destination for multinational companies seeking to hedge
themselves against the conflict, bringing potential employment opportunities and greater investment into Singapore’s economy.

singapore vs asean also stimulating military buildup^

signs of more hostility in SEA

 1. distrust in relationships with malaysia and indonesia
a. frequent threats of cutting off water supply from malaysia (250 million gallons of water per day)
b. joint airborne exercise by Indonesia and Malaysia less than 20km from Singapore on its National Day in 1991
2. military buildup in ASEAN member states as a response to SCS dispute
a. caused by recent fissures in ASEAN caused by ‘divisive tactics’ employed by China → pushed spore to further engage with US to
counterbalance china hegemonic ambitions in SCS ⚠ advocating against an outright American containment policy bc of huge economic weight
the Chinese have in the region [deployment of US combat ships to changi naval base met with Chinese suspicion and skepticism as conveyed
through their state media]
b. Singapore has to continue to flex its diplomatic and financial muscle in ASEAN to maintain solidarity and unity.
i. Singapore does have expertise and resources that could be used to bolster ASEAN’s functional capabilities BUT limited by
its small size, Singapore is not likely to become the leader in ASEAN, but it will be able to act as a strong wingman for
likely candidates such as Indonesia.
c. an underfunded and weak asean secretariat stands in the way of maintaining peace in the region → need to strengthen the operational capabilities
and effectiveness of the asean secretariat (2012 annual budget was 15mil usd whereas EU has budget of 150bil euros)
i. lack of resources for the ASEAN Secretariat rendered it useless in a time when ASEAN unity is essential.
ii. An unwillingness to boost the capacity of the Secretariat also obstructs effective confidence-building and conflict
resolution between ASEAN members.
iii. The incapability of ASEAN to provide development funds to the less developed members has also caused them to turn to
China, trading their allegiance for much needed resources for economic development.
d. members need better communication
i. failed to issue a joint communiqué for the first time in its history due to differences with regards to the South China Sea
dispute

singapore-indonesia/malaysia

overview:
singapore-indonesia/malaysia relations are pretty vital to singapore! both countries are deeply interdependent wrt singapore, very intertwined
with singapore. share cultural, historical backgrounds, very significant relationship. however, there have been instances of marked tension.
m’sia:
have a long-standing, broad and multifaceted relationship. Bilateral trade, investment, and tourism ties are robust.
good relations
- Bilateral trade, investment, and tourism ties are robust
- regular high-level exchanges such as the Leaders’ Retreat, Joint Ministerial Committee (JMC) meetings on Iskandar Malaysia, and
Ministerial level visits.
- There are other interactions, including bilateral cultural events, that have fostered stronger bonds between our countries.
bad relations
- PEDRA BLANCA - In 1979, Malaysia published a map which claimed the island as hers. In response, Singapore lodged a
formal protest with Malaysia in early 1980, to assert that Pedra Branca belonged to Singapore. As the two sides were unable
to resolve the matter through bilateral negotiations, both countries agreed to resolve their differences peacefully through a
third party by bringing the territorial dispute to the International Court of Justice (ICJ) for decision.
- verdict : sovereignty over Pedra Branca belongs to Singapore, sovereignty over Middle Rocks belongs to Malaysia,
and sovereignty over South Ledge belongs to the State in the territorial waters of which it is located.
- frequent threats of cutting off water supply
- joint airborne exercise by Indonesia and Malaysia less than 20km from Singapore on its National Day in 1991
indonesia:
Leaders and Ministers work closely together bilaterally, as well as at ASEAN and various international fora, to advance common interests.
good relations
- regular high-level exchanges, including the annual Leaders’ Retreat and the Six Bilateral Economic Working Groups Ministerial
Meeting which strengthen ties
- relations underpinned by strong economic cooperation
- Bilateral trade reached $59 billion in 2019, and Singapore has been the top foreign investor in Indonesia since 2014.
- Both countries also have substantive cooperation across a wide range of sectors, including education, culture, defence and the
environment.
bad relations
- UNCLOS dispute
 - both were dealing with different interpretations of Article 51 of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea
(UNCLOS) — specifically, whether Singapore has traditional rights to conduct military exercises in Indonesian archipelagic
waters or not
- Indonesia argued that Singapore could not conduct military exercises in Indonesian archipelagic waters without a
DCA. Singapore, on the other hand, continues to assert its own interpretation of Article 51 — that it has the right to
military training as granted under the Article, even without the terms and conditions.
- but there is already some momentum towards a resolution lol (this is possible because of good diplomatic relations with Indonesia!
→ can be used as an example to assert why it is important to have friendly diplomatic relations, especially with neighbours as during
situations like this, negotiations becomes easier + of course the idea of reducing hostility to increase security)
- joint airborne exercise by Indonesia and Malaysia less than 20km from Singapore on its National Day in 1991

singapore-china
overview:
relations anchored by frequent high-level exchanges, multifaceted cooperation, growing people-to-people exchanges, and robust economic ties.

many ongoing projects (→ = focusing on) including

1. Suzhou Industrial Park → innovation
2. Guangzhou Knowledge City → focuses on intellectual property
1. Tianjin Eco-City → environment and resources
2. Chongqing projects → connectivity
timeline
2013 - present: China has been Singapore’s largest trading partner, and Singapore has been China’s largest foreign investor
2015: s’pore and china decided to upgrade the existing china singapore free trade agreement (csfta)
- promised market access for Singapore’s export of goods and services into China, and provided greater transparency and predictability for
business activities between the companies from Singapore and China → meaningful and substantive, why?
2016: tensions escalated between sg and china
- Singapore showed support for an international arbitration ruling in July 2016, which denied China’s maritime sovereignty
rights in the South China Sea
 - so china supported the impounding of nine Singapore Armed Forces armored personnel carriers by Hong Kong customs in
November 2016.
- Singapore’s Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong was not invited to the Belt and Road Forum in Beijing, sg is a pivotal player in the Belt and
Road Initiative. → signalled a cold spell in relations
2017: relations seemed to not only gone back to normal but seemed to have moved forward
- numerous regular meetings between singaporean and chinese officials
- many documents outlining cooperation were signed
- In February, 2017, the 13th round of the bilateral Joint Council for Bilateral Cooperation (JCBC) was held in Beijing.
After the meeting, four agreements were signed, all of which aim at deepening existing cooperation projects,
including the Tianjin Eco- City, Chongqing connectivity project, Guangzhou Knowledge City, and Suzhou Industrial
Park. In October, the 4th round of China-Singapore FTA Upgrading Negotiations was held in Singapore.
- historically singapore chinese cooperation only economic and cultural cooperation but now the two states have initiated
cooperation in new areas
- 2017 august: the first joint legal and judicial roundtable between China and Singapore was held, a memorandum of
understanding on cooperation was signed between the spore and china
- 2017 december: Singapore and Shandong province decided to boost cooperation in three key areas: food products,
modern services, and energy
tensions
- China’s “Malacca Strait dilemma”
- a strategic vulnerability arising from China’s lack of control over the waterway through which 80 percent of its oil
imports flowed. That Strait also happens to be next to Singapore and its economic lifeline. China could one day feel
the need to remedy the situation. China’s island-building and increased naval activity in the South China Sea have
not been reassuring. In one troubling incident, a Japanese helicopter carrier sailing to Singapore spotted a Chinese
submarine lurking near the entrance to the strait in 2018.
- Belt and Road Initiative
- china trying to redirect through belt road initiatives, could have long-term ramifications for Singapore, since the BRI
envisions a new network of trade routes radiating from China, mostly over land across Central Asia and continental
Southeast Asia rather than through the Malacca Strait.
- chinese port in Zhoushan has already set to work building the needed infrastructure to capitalize on its location and
 capture a big chunk of Singapore’s marine fueling business. (4th busiest port I think)
- “Made in China 2025” industrial policy. aims to turn China into the world’s high-tech manufacturing leader. It has
been building the capacity to ramp up production of commonly used electronic integrated circuits. Since in 2017
those circuits represented over 16 percent of Singaporean exports (mostly to China), Singapore may be among the
first to feel the heat from China’s economic tinkering.

singapore-us

overview:
enjoys strong and long standing defence, economic and political relations with US

defense:
- military cooperation → lloyd austin visited singapore for talks on military collaboration in 2021 july
- renewed a 1990 memorandum of understanding (MOU) that facilitates US forces' access to Singapore's military facilities for
transit and logistics support + established a Republic of Singapore Air Force fighter training detachment in Guam.
- underscored the long-standing and multi-faceted defence ties
- "strong" bilateral training relationship between their countries
- The United States' presence in the region is "vital for its peace, prosperity, and stability" and cooperation between the two
countries is excellent and long standing in areas like in counter-terrorism and artificial intelligence
- hope for more cooperation in areas such as cyber defence, strategic communications and humanitarian assistance
and disaster relief.

economic:
- US is Singapore’s largest foreign direct investor by country. The US-Singapore Free Trade Agreement that came into force in 2004
was the first FTA between the US and an Asian country.
- bilateral free trade agreement entered into force in 2004.
- Since that time, bilateral trade has increased 62%, reaching $45 billion in goods trade in 2016

political
 - Bilateral cooperation spans many mutually beneficial areas such as cyber-security, counter-terrorism, education, infrastructure,
counter-proliferation and a Third Country Training Programme to jointly help developing countries.
- Singapore is one of the United States’ most committed partners in the region. This commitment stems from a deep-rooted sense of
insecurity about its external environment and a firm belief that the United States’ presence helps to preserve Singapore’s autonomy
and options, as well as maintain the peace and stability that has undergirded the region’s economic growth.
- sense of vulnerability stemming from spore’s immediate neighbourhood, surrounded by large muslim countries
- U.S. presence as a counterweight to a rising China and considers Singapore’s interest best served if the United States maintains a
preeminent position, though in a manner that accommodates China’s rise.
significance: US to counterbalance china hegemonic ambitions in SCS
⚠ sg advocates against an outright American containment policy because of huge economic weight the Chinese have in the region

us-china tensions and singapore

overview:
Singapore does not want to be forced to choose between the United States and China. While the United States is regarded as the region’s
security umbrella, China—ASEAN’s number one trade partner—is regarded as its rainmaker. China is a geographical fact in the region, in a way
that the United States is not. U.S. commitment is therefore something that the region will always, to a certain extent, be nervous about.
Furthermore, the United States and China are so interconnected that it cannot hold China back without hurting itself, and second, that its ability
to manage relations will have an impact on how the region regards the United States’ leadership role.

Much of Singapore’s existing relationship with either country will come under greater scrutiny, as a result of factors such as the former’s
purchase of U.S. military equipment or its foreign investments in China.

disadvantages to singapore
- decrease in trade flows between us and china → sg trade-reliant economy would be severely affected
- more Chinese firms relocate to Singapore
- U.S. imposing sanctions or tariffs on Chinese products or services regardless of their country of manufacture. sg-us
relations may take a backseat while U.S. national security interests take precedence
- increasing reliance on China for foreign investment could endanger Singapore economically as China may exert
 economic pressure to align Singapore with China
- singapore’s stance towards the scs dispute (military alliance with the US, collaboration with the US) has angered china
- showed support for the landmark ruling by The Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague (2016) denying Chinese claims to
huge swathes of the South China Sea → aligned with American views
- [retaliated by seizing Singapore’s military vehicles stationed in Hong Kong. began conducting more influence
operations through Singaporean business associations and cultural organisations, with the aims of promoting
a stronger Chinese identity amongst the local ethnic Chinese population and shaping Singapore’s policies
indirectly
advantages to singapore
- american investments being channelled out of china → could be invested in singapore
- china taking control of HK → companies move to spore instead. attractive destination for multinational companies seeking to hedge
themselves against the conflict, bringing potential employment opportunities and greater investment into Singapore’s economy.

ASEAN
overview:
ASEAN's purpose is to promote economic and cultural exchange among its member countries, maintain peace and stability in Southeast Asia,
and establish relationships with foreign powers with similar aims
ASEAN Charter creates a framework within which ASEAN Member States can enter into substantive agreements on specific areas, such as
economic integration, environmental protection and climate change, equitable development, transnational crime and security.
The function ASEAN functions strictly within the mandate of ASEAN Charter which demands respect for the following principles
- territorial integrity
- sovereignty
- non-interference
- plays a crucial role in moulding interactions and compromise. indeed sacrosanct
- national identities of ASEAN members?
why? South-east Asia has incredible diversity in terms of religion, language, ethnicity and culture. There are several forms of government,
there are also different interpretations of what human rights means, and what is the proper relationship between the individual and the
state. Given this diversity, member states need appropriate codes of conduct and norms such that ASEAN countries will be willing to unite
 and foster a peaceful political environment ++ to develop a wide network of relations, these relations must be based on mutual respect for
each other's sovereignty and the equality of nation states, regardless of size.

benefits
- economic
- Under the Asean Economic Community, the ambition is to integrate the 10 economies into a single market and
production base. This means that our domestic market is not 5.6 million but 628 million consumers. The Asean
economy is one of the fastest-growing economies in the world. It is currently the world's seventh-largest economy. It
is predicted that, by 2030, Asean could become the fourth-largest economy in the world.
- political
- For the past 50 years, Asean has maintained peace in South-east Asia. No two Asean countries have gone to war
during this period
- Without peace, Singapore's journey from the Third World to the First would have been more difficult, if not
impossible.
- establishing partnerships
- 10 major partners are: Australia, New Zealand, Canada, Japan, the European Union, the United States, South Korea,
China, Russia and India → in partnerships with larger and more powerful countries, asean member states are better able to
secure their regional interests
- Without Asean, none of the 10 member states would be able to attract the leaders of the most
important countries of the world to meet annually with them.
- others
- Asean has developed a culture of consultation, mutual accommodation and cooperation.
- impt because the region faces many challenges which cannot be solved by any state alone. These challenges
include climate change, terrorism, the trafficking of men, women and child, migration, refugees,
transboundary pollution, conservation of biodiversity, and the health of the oceans and seas.
- raising the standard of living and well-being of the citizens of Asean
- Establishment of the Asean Intergovernmental Commission on Human Rights, the Commission on the Promotion and
Protection of the Rights of Women and Children, the adoption of the Asean Human Rights Declaration and the Asean
Convention Against Trafficking in Persons, Especially Women and Children are important milestones.
problems
- implementation of agreements reached is still at a minimum
 - 30% of commitments made among the ASEAN member states are ever implemented.
- no central mechanism to enforce compliance
- lack of a sense of ownership of ASEAN among our populations.
- The peoples of ASEAN still do not participate in the decision-making process of the association. It is still regarded as a
forum for policy-makers and bureaucrats.
- no common foreign, economic, or security policy given the diversified political culture of its member countries
- Singapore's public ranks last in its favourable attitude towards Asean. Only 77 per cent of the Singaporeans
surveyed had a favourable or very favourable view of Asean, compared with 85 per cent for all Asean countries.
Furthermore, 16 percent of Singaporeans had an unfavourable view of Asean, as compared with 10 per cent for all
Asean countries.

good instances
ASEAN members have not been shy to 'interfere' in the domestic affairs of other ASEAN States when there are regional implications which affect
their national interests
- haze
- Powerful domestic interests were at play because Indonesia's national policies had encouraged the conversion of
their forests into oil palm or agricultural land. Bilateral relations between Indonesia, Brunei, Singapore and Malaysia
were tested BUT though the ASEAN Agreement on Trans boundary Haze Pollution came into force on 25 November
2003, Indonesia has not ratified this agreement

- SARS

- ASEAN reacted swiftly and with success to combat the SARS in 2003. States were able to cooperate and coordinate
measures such as strict quarantine measures, as well as thermal screening at entry and exit points, to contain the
disease without any legal agreements.

- The point to note is that non interference is not upheld by ASEAN members for disinterested reasons. Nor are
legal agreements necessarily more effective in securing a desired outcome. Ultimately it is the national
interests of the individual Member
 good initiatives

- ASEAN Integration (IAI)

- aims to coordinate ASEAN’s efforts to narrow the development gap within the region, enhance the overall
competitiveness of ASEAN as a region and accelerate regional integration.

- training centres have been established in Phnom Penh (Cambodia), Vientiane (Laos), Yangon (Myanmar) and
Hanoi (Vietnam). Over 43,000 officials from Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam have participated in IAI
courses at the training centres on various topics.

- outlines collaboration with partner countries, NGOs and private sector entities to offer development and
humanitarian assistance.

- This is an example of an initiative that contributes towards ASEAN’s community building efforts and through
this manages to mitigate the severity of an issue that is faced by many countries in the region through
collaborative effort. It also buttresses Asean’s overall progress by encouraging regional growth through
contributions by not only affected countries but also other member states that are not direct recipients of the
aid promised through the initiative.

bad instances
- myanmar
- Myanmar's junta ruthlessly crushed the protests, which were led by monks and pro-democracy activists, after the regime
unexpectedly raised fuel prices in August 2007, ASEAN issued a strong statement that expressed its 'revulsion' over the use
of violence against its citizens.
- This episode had implications for ASEAN's credibility and could not be an internal matter for Myanmar.
- Cyclone Nargis struck and devastated Myanmar in May 2008, of which tens of thousands died and at least a million are
displaced
- Government's initial intransigence towards external humanitarian relief forced ASEAN to ask Myanmar 'point-blank'
what the Association meant to this Member State. These are strong indications of ASEAN's departure from its
adherence to the rule against non-interference.
 - Such a move partly reflected a necessary response to the magnitude of the humanitarian disaster which has
affected Myanmar, but it was also calculated to demonstrate ASEAN's credibility as an effective organization
just as it sought to ratify the Charter.
- not in Southeast Asia's interests to allow Japan, India, China or the US to be drawn into an arena for big
powers conflict over Myanmar.

- south china sea

- disputes reveal dilemma between further integration and preservation of national sovereignty
- Multiple factors coexisting at three levels – the state level, international level, and organizational level –
simultaneously play a role in hindering ASEAN unity
- NOT JUST Chinese efforts to divide ASEAN members
- STATE LEVEL:
- each and every member state of ASEAN pursues its own national interests and is reluctant to delegate
sovereignty to ASEAN’s decision- making mechanism.
- the existing diversity in political, economic, and social contexts, as well as variations in their cooperation with
China, ASEAN states are unwilling to commit to a united position toward China → historical inter-state conflicts
between ASEAN members
- Paracel and Spratly Islands → Several ASEAN members have overlapping claims to the islands in the
South China Sea (philippines, vietnam, malaysia)
- hard to come up with a reso. that satisfies all member states in asean let alone asean and china. why?
- a show of territorial integrity + natural resources + SCS is a key transportation route and hence
carries strategic importance + control over the South China Sea = control over the sea lines of
communications for trade, oil shipment, and fisheries. + hydrocarbon resources
- ASEAN member states have varying levels of partnership with China.
- The current trend is that only better-off ASEAN members have managed to attain a diverse
group of trading partners and have trade surpluses with China.
- The other, less wealthy countries suffer from heavy dependence on Chinese goods and a
growing trade deficit with China.
- Especially since the ASEAN-China Free Trade Area (ACFTA) came into effect in 2010,
the level of dependence on trade with China has surged.
- The extent of economic cooperation between China and each ASEAN country is a good
indication of political support for China → varying degrees of economic cooperation between
China and ASEAN members directly affects their reaction to the South China Sea dispute. That
 in turn prevents ASEAN as a whole from coming to a consensus.
- INTERNATIONAL LEVEL
- major powers prevent ASEAN from producing a united stance on the conflict by using their
own allies in the organisation to further their own interests
- China puts economic and political pressure on her allies and the United States, while
actively assisting the armament of ASEAN member states, hesitates to lead the
opposition against China.
- China prefers bilateral negotiations to resolve the South China Sea disputes vs ASEAN
prefers multilateral talks.
- if ASEAN submits to the Chinese demand to deal with the South China Sea
dispute on a bilateral basis because it gives them an advantage, ASEAN
automatically loses its legitimacy as a regional organization. ASEAN needs to
show its centrality as a leading role player in the region.
- The United States fears the rise of China will come at the cost of U.S. influence in the
Asia-Pacific.
- persistently protested to defend freedom of navigation by conducting regular
joint patrols with Japan and the Philippines
- increased financial support for ASEAN claimants.
- BUT confidence in the U.S. commitment to Asia-Pacific stability has gradually
dwindled as Washington shows no determination in stopping China because
that would put their bilateral relation at risk
- ORGANISATIONAL LEVEL
- no leadership in asean which direct member states towards a united position
- organization’s capacity in all measures (economic development, political power, population) is
considerably weaker in comparison with China and that China is ASEAN’s key trading partner
- has inherent problems with its decision-making mechanism and organizational framework.
- ASEAN Charter demands “respecting the fundamental importance of amity and
cooperation, and the principles of sovereignty, equality, territorial integrity, non-
interference, consensus and unity in diversity.” which often prevents ASEAN members
from reaching an agreement. e.g. failure to produce a final joint communiqué after
ASEAN meetings in 2012 and in 2016.
- ASEAN follows a conflict management model → conflict management over conflict resolution.
- High Council is mentioned as the key body to be responsible for managing and settling
 conflicts
- this mechanism is inherently flawed which impedes its effectiveness
SIGNIFICANCE OF THE SCS CONFLICT:

dispute pushes all the clashes of interests at each of the three levels to the extreme, exposing the organization to the decision of
whether to modify and upgrade itself, or to lose its central influence in the region. The international factors are external threats to
ASEAN while the state-level and organization-level factors can be classified as internal threats.
-