·- - - - ~~ - - ..

-1!11!1/~'ll~: ~IZillllll

10. Traffic Forecasting

vestm ents in the trans port secto r cons titute a signi fican t part of the total
111 lopin g natio ns ' wher e
ent . This is espe ciall y true in the case of deve .
. ves t n1 infra -
10 rt is the catal yst for all roun d deve lopm ent and 1s one of the basic
· scarc e and has comp eting dema nds the
transpores. When the cap1·t a 1 ava1·1 a bl e 1s
h '
structu .
ave to be plan ned caref ully keep ing in view
. tments in a trans port proJe ct . '
inves ly the prese nt dem an d b ut a 1so the requ irem ents for a reaso nable perio d
not. o1l . . .
in future. This unde rline s the need f~r estim ating the futur e traffi c accu ratel y,
impr ovem ent of
whether the plan be for the cons truct ion of a new facili ty or the
e traffi c will
existing facilities. To a grea t exte nt, the accu rate estim ate of futur
ion whet her
influence the engin eerin g desig n of the facil ity and the economic decis
to take up the proje ct or not.

at best be
Traffic forec astin g, in the pres ent state of know ledge , can
of a num ber of
approximate. Traff ic is gene rated as a resu lt of the inter play
nden t on the
contributory factors. Fore casts of traff ic have , there fore, to be depe
le owne rship ,
forecasts of factors such as popu latio n, gross d~me stic prod uct, vehic
chan ge in these
agricultural outpu t, fuel cons umpt ion and so on. Futu re patte rn of
henc e traffi c
factors can be estim ated with only a limit ed degr ee of accu racy and
this inhe rent
forecasting cann ot be done more prec isely than this. Insp ite of
plan ner is after
drawback, traffic forec astin g is a very impo rtant job a trans port
called upon to do.
. : ,
10.3 • T:y f . "i ,, . .·. . .·• , ·, ·, -. · ·.. · : --•·1.:·;__
1 pes o Traffic•-. .• ·· ·., -·. ·· .. •
•' ' .
. --~ . .. •..
. • • \ • ' . • ' ' !' ) ' ·• •·" ~\-...

c met with
It is neces sary to disti ngui sh betw een the following types of traffi
When de ar1ng with . traffi c forec astin g :
.
I0.3.I . Curr ent Tra ffic- exis ting and attra cted (or diver ted)
This repre sents the volu me of traff ic that. woul d use an impr oved high way
if. · t·
· · s the exis mg
tr itfliWere open to traffic. It cons ists of the exist ing traffi c plus or minu
w: ic attrac ted to it/or dive rted traff ic that is lost to it from /to othe
en the i
r facil ities
mpro veme nts are comp leted .
10.3 ·2 · r ra ff.1c .Incr ease
(i) N~rmal grow th of traffi c, repre senti ng the incre ase
in traffi c on the
gene ral
~xisting facil ity if no impr ovem ent is made . This is due to
1ncre · the num ber and usag e moto r veh'1c1es.
ase 1n

169
 T AA FFIC ENGINEERING AND TRANS PORT PLAN .. ,
. •~~
· . the traffi c diver ted on to, or away f
Presen ting
(u. ') Diverted tra fJiic,d rebeing d. rorq
the route or mo e stu ie d . ,
. the new traffi c becau se of new traveu
c,:,:i) Induced tra ffiic, repre sent1ng .
, . roved or new fact.1ity. er8
maki ng use of the imp 1 some times know n as gene rated trafi-
..
Items (u) an d (ui· ") bove are a so
a tt'ng the incre ase m.
traffi c due •oc·
ffi repre sen h
( i v) Deve1opment tra c, 1 d over and abov e t e d eve Iopme nt wh· toh
improvements on a dj acenth an .
d not the new or impr ove d h'igh way beeic
would have taken p]ace a
ll
constructed.

' . . . d f fi recas ting is to analy se the past data for a numb

The simplest metho O ho er
t trend s assum ing that the cond itions Will
of years and to ex~rapolate t e ptatsh same rates as in the
past. Obviously, such
continue to change m the futur e a d.esadv antag es, altho ugh ·t ·
1 1s re 1ative
· ly easy
a simplificatio~ suffers from r~:ya ~tabl e envi ronm ent,
whic h is beyo nd the
and cheap. It is go?d e:ou g . roduc tion popu latio n and
so on (Ref. 1). The
influence of any ma.,fi ollr c ta~ge t:e ppast data ~nd look out for
analyst has to care u Y s u Y any indic ators that
are likely to influence the futur e patte rn. .
The equat ion deriv ed from the time serie s data on Bus-
passe nger- km
travelled in a recent study is (Ref. 9) :
BUP K = 29.31 (l.l00 )n
where , BUPKn = B;s-p assen ger-k m in billio ns at the end
of the nth period.
n = Year - 1951.
In anoth er meth od, data on certa in know n cont ribut
ors to traffi c are
analysed and then the traffic is forec ast based on any relat ionsh
ip betw een traffic
and these contributors. Popu lation , gross dome stic prod uct
vehic le ownership,
agricultural and indus trial outpu t, fuel cons umpt ion etc. are
some of these .
Population data are avail able in all the coun tries for the
past numb er of
years. Elabo rate meth ods to predi ct futur e popu latio n are
avail able with the
demographers, and the trans port plann er shou ld cons ult the
expe rts in field for
help. The past data on Gross Domestic Prod uct (GDP ) or Gros
s Nati onal Product
(GNP ) are easily available. Traffic is highl y relat ed
to GDP or GNP .
Forecasts of this param eter may not be very relia ble, but
accuracy should be acceptable for purp oses of traffi c forec a reaso nable
astin g.
In developing these models, it is often conv enien t to trans form
to the log form as unde r (Ref. the variables
10) :
loge T = Ao + A 1 loge GNP
where, T = Tran sport dema nd, GNP = Gros s natio nal
prod uct
A 0 and A 1 are co-efficients.
In the above equa tion, the co-efficie
Tran sport Dem and with respe ct to GNP I n t A 1 d.Irect ly .
gives the elast icity _of
the GNP will resul t in A per cent . · n ~th er word s, one per cent incre ase in
. . I mcre ase
A typic al equa twn relat ing the frei htIn Tran spor t Dem and
in India is as unde r (Ref. 9). .
g mov emen t by road in term s of GNP
loge T ;: - 20.4677 + 2.3563 log GNP
where, T = Total freig ht move d by road . b'll'e .
G . In I Ion tonn e-km
WP = Gross N atwnal Incom e in crore s f .
0
rupe es at 1970 -71 price s.
 jRAF flC foRECASTI NG
ed to det erm ine car ownership rates.
Econometric models _have bee n develop :
(Ref. 11) give the following model
For example, Kh an and W1llumsen
- 0.373 loge PU RT AX
log C1000 = - 362 + 70.5 loge GN PH
IMP DU TY
- 2.58 loge OW NT AX - 0.682 loge
PD EN
- 29.4 loge FU ELP R - 2.04 loge PO
R 2 = 0.86
C 1000 = Car ow ner shi p per 1000
per son s
where,
cap ita
GN PH = Gro ss Nat ion al Pro duc t per
wit h car s
PU RT AX = Pur cha se tax ass oci ated
e fee)
OW NT AX = Ow ner shi p tax (licens
IMP DU TY = Imp ort dut y for car s
fuel
FU ELP R = Fue l pric e per litr e of
PO PD EN = Pop ula tion den sity
det erm ina nt of traffic. If the vehicle
Vehicle ow ner shi p is an imp ort ant
is kno wn , tot al am oun t of trav el per yea r exp res sed in vehicle-
population rag e
g the vehicle pop ula tion wit h the ave
kilometres, can be fou nd by mu ltip lyin owi ng
of a veh icle in a yea r. The veh icle own ersh ip is commonly found to be foll
run major
um ing no cat astr oph ic eve nts and no
a logistic curve (Ref. 2), Fig. 10.1, ass
.
substitution in the tran spo rt modes l
only one unknown, the satu rati on leve
The equ atio n for the cur ve con tain s ard s this
a is kno wn . ,Th e cur ve ten ds tow
a, and is uni que ly det erm ine d if gro wth dec reases
e. The per cen tag e rate of
saturation level wit h pas sag e of tim motor
dily as the upp er lim it is app roa che d. In U.K., a satu rati on level 0.55
stea
bee n det erm ine d (Ref. 2).
vehicles (all vehicles) per per son has
aX
Equ atio n : x > --- --- .,. --- --, -
. X + (a - x)e - art/( a - x )
t
t can be a good indicator of the am oun
Dat a on fuel con sum ptio n in the pas es oth er
the use of petrol and diesel for purpos
of travel. Difficulties aris e bec aus e of tern by diff erent
yin g fuel consumption pat
than the mo tor vehicle, and the var
vehicles und er div erse conditions.
Saturation level
X = a --- --- --- --- --- --- --- - -

dx
dt
jx=r

--+- +oo
0 10 20 30 40
-00 -+- - Fut ure
'. Pas t Base yea r
t
veh icle ownership .
Fig . 10.1 . Logistic gro wth curve for
 -· - , , , t-M~

Ii ~,~
. .

, 0:;1 h 1 o n agri cult ural , indu stria l and min

ing outp ut and co
. .Pti
in disc erni ng the past ~;ulll 0
~~h'!H~ fH\~' «->.x port s and imp orts , can be usef ul ends all~
;/ ~\l'l ' \\'u ~ · n t a futu re fore cast .
....
I

ba~e ~ on math elll .

_l 0 .5 . 1. Fore cast s of trav el dem and (triJ? mak ing)
. The pred ict10 n offu tu at1ca.J
m od ~lhng a re pop ular in Tran spor tatio n Plan ning affic
ided the mod els are c:i~~r
b~se d on such 1nod e1s is an accu rate met hod , prov inv
1
rated
. The enor mou s wor k
w it h care afte r the nece ssar y data are colle cted h f pute rs.
O1
·
"ed in
g can be less ened to a grea t exte nt by t e use o com
1nod e l1in
1 0 .5.2 . Tra vel d ema nd fun c tion s
such it can be unde rst
Dem and for trav el is an econ omic activ ity. As
es dea ling with cons ume r ch oice ~od
by refe renc e to well -kno wn econ omidc prin cipl
. . 1 .
b e h av1o ur 1n re at10 n to com mon goo s.
s of good s pric ed at p 1, p
Pur cha se of Q 1, Qv ...... , Qn qua ntiti es .of n item
can be repr esen ted by: 2'
...... , P n invo lves a cert ain leve l of utili ty, whi ch
U(Q i, Q2, ······, Qn)
ity de:i ved b~ purchasing
Eve ry con sum er wou ld like to max imi~ e the ut~l
qua ntity , subJ ect to his budgetary
a com bina tion of item s of good s, each of a cert ain
i, Q2' ...... , Qn) subj ect to
con stra int. He wou ld thus like to max imis e U(Q
n
L pi Qi ~B
i=l
ntit y and B is the tota l budget.
whe re, Pi is the pric e of the ith item , Qi the qua
be con side red as a demand
The qua ntity of ith item cons ume d, Qi, can
good s and the inco me leve l.
func tion , rela ting the qua ntit y to the pric es of
Qi = Di (P1, P2, ······, Pn)
to dea l with trav el demand
The abov e dem and func tion can be simp lifie d
as follo ws :
Qn = nn (P, S, A)
whe re, Qn = Dem and for trav el for purp ose n
Dn = dem and func tion
P attr ibut es of trav el dem and (pric e,
= A vect or incl udin g pric ing
trav el time , com fort, safe ty etc.)
S = Soci o-ec onom ic vect or
A = Acti vity syst em vari able .
1 ·
The trip mak ing func tion as is c o? Y used by the traf fic eng inee r 15

of the form sim ilar to the ahov e 'fiunc t.Ionomm

and Is :
TFJkr = Di.fkr (L, S, A)
whe re, TFJkr = The tota l num ber of trip s for th purp ose n betw een orig in i to
dest inat ion j by mod e k and ro ;
DiJkr (.)= dem and func tion u er

L = Level of serv ice

S = Soci o.ec onom ic fact or
· syst em, vari able .
A --Act·IVIty
 -~-~ NG
'f~C FV. " • . •
· 10_5.3. Seq u enti al an d sim ulta ne ous mod els
The trip mak ing beha viou r cons ists of four disc ripto rs :
1. Trip freq uenc y 2. Dest inati on
3. Mode . 4. Rou te and othe r choice.
al mod els, the trip- mak ing heh av1o • . b· . .
In the sequ enti
d h t ld . . ur is mlt- up in a
ently of othe rs. In the
uential order' an eac r~ve ec1s1on mad e inde pend 'd d t th
seq l"nneous 1node ls, all attri bute s of trav el choice are consi ere oge er.
sinllt
l,(1--'-•

els
10.5.4. Agg rega te and disa ggre gate mod
p of travellers.
Aggregate models dea~ with the estim ation of trave l of a grou
unit, the individual
Disaggregate models deal with the sma llest decision mak ing
traveller.
for Forecasting
10_6. Perio~
forecasting is
The ques tion as to wha t perio d shou ld be selected for traffic
port plans, the
difficult to answer. Sinc e traff ic fore casti ng is need ed for trans
cient for traffic
design period selec ted for the tran spor t plan s sho_uld be suffi
l (Ref. 3), since
forecasting. Long-range tran spor t plan s are not parti cula rly usefu
such plans do not exist in othe r sectors. In general, trans port
plans are for a period
years in less detail.
of about ten years-five year s in deta il and an addi tiona l five
In U.K., it is custo mary to fore cast traff ic for a design perio
d of 15 years (Ref. 4)
are designed for 15
when dealing with rura l road s. In Indi a, Nati onal Highways
years after completion of the work .
. I. MULTIPLE CHOIC~ QUESTIONS .