Defense & Security

U.S.-China Strategic Competition

and the Resulting Arms Race in
South Asia
Written by Noorulain Naseem January 20, 2023 8 min read

In recent years, Washington has described China as its “greatest strategic competitor”
and adopted a more aggressive policy to counter Beijing’s growing influence. While U.S.
domestic audiences have largely applauded Washington’s more assertive stance,
escalating tensions between the United States and China threaten to spiral into a security
dilemma in South Asia. In the midst of this competition, Washington and Beijing must take
care not to aggravate existing rivalries in the region. The first step is preventing an
escalating arms race.

The India-Pakistan nuclear rivalry is one of the most dangerous in the world. Arms races,
security dilemmas stability and instability and persistent competition take center stage in
security dilemmas, stability and instability, and persistent competition take center stage in
their bilateral relations. While the origins of the rivalry date back to the rushed Partition of
1947, its stakes drastically increased with India and Pakistan’s overt nuclearization in
1998. In the past, international involvement has proved central in deescalating tensions
between the nuclear-armed neighbors. However, increasing competition between the
United States and China threatens to disrupt this delicate balance.

Shifting Geopolitics

In recent years, geopolitical leanings have risked solidifying into opposing blocs, with the
U.S.-India strategic partnership on one side and the all-weather China-Pakistan
relationship on the other. Alignments between superpowers and their South Asian
partners have deepened, as factors that mitigate competition have diminished.
Counterterrorism cooperation between the United States and Pakistan, and border
management between China and India have balanced geopolitical leanings in the past.
However, the U.S. troop withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021 and ongoing Chinese
incursions into Indian territory along the Line of Actual Control have removed the few
shared interests that moderated competition in the past. Instead, deepening competition
between the United States, China, India, and Pakistan appears likely.

If the United States and China look at the region through the lens
of great power competition, strategies to gain advantage vis-à-vis
the other could aggravate existing strategic competition between
India and Pakistan, even if inadvertently.

These overlapping rivalries and threat perceptions can bear dangerous repercussions for
the nuclear rivalry between India and Pakistan. If the United States and China look at the
region through the lens of great power competition, strategies to gain advantage vis-à-vis
the other could aggravate existing strategic competition between India and Pakistan, even
if inadvertently. For example, increasing exchange of arms and defense technology could
increase regional threat perceptions and drive arms acquisition strategies.

Both China and the United States should weigh the great power advantages conferred
from arming India and Pakistan with their shared interest in regional stability. The current
arms pile up in South Asia facilitated by these great powers has already destabilized this
nuclear flash point. In addition to superpower considerations, India and Pakistan must
also recognize the costs of aligning their security goals too closely with either of these
 g g g yg y
competing great powers. Amid this evolving strategic geometry, all sides must prioritize
sovereignty, development, and strategic stability.

All Weather Friends: China-Pakistan Relations

The United States and China each have longstanding strategic ties with their South Asian
defense partners. Rising out of the 1962 Sino-Indian War, Beijing’s partnership with
Pakistan plays a critical role in China’s foreign policy. Throughout history, China has
turned to Pakistan to blunt the Indian threat. Today, Beijing continues to invest heavily to
bolster Pakistan’s defense capabilities and counter India. By arming Pakistan with
equipment that neutralizes Indian capabilities, China bolsters the threat of a two-front war
against New Delhi.

China-Pakistan defense ties show the centrality of India in driving the relationship. In 2003,
Beijing and Islamabad signed a Joint Declaration on Direction of Bilateral
Cooperation which enhanced defense cooperation. Since then, China has provided military
assistance to Pakistan via the J-10CE, Al Khalid tanks, and the first shipment of the VT-4 –
a Chinese-made main battle tank. Moreover, Chinese transfers have aimed to rival Indian
capabilities, such as Islamabad’s recent purchase of J10C jets that counter the Indian
Rafales and J-F17 Thunder fighter jets which have helped Pakistan deter India in
airspace and replaced Pakistan’s reliance on U.S. F-16 jets. China and Pakistan are also
engaged in ongoing negotiations around the provision of a hypersonic missile to counter
India’s S400 missile defense system.

Furthermore, China is assisting Pakistan in developing its nuclear capability, which is

projected to include more than 200 nuclear missiles in the next five years. At its Defense
Day exhibition in March 2022, Pakistan showcased its Chinese-acquired long-range
nuclear missiles, advanced radar systems, and fighter jets. This occurred only months
after India’s accidental launch of its nuclear-capable Brahmos Missile into Pakistani
territory. As Beijing arms Pakistan to match Indian capabilities, China advances its South
Asia strategy but also risks accelerating a regional arms race.
U.S.-China competition could accelerate this dynamic. China has expressed concerns that
India could obtain nuclear-powered submarines under AUKUS and has shown
apprehension over the QUAD and its 2020 Malabar military exercises. These
developments raise Beijing’s threat perceptions and could push it to arm Pakistan further.
Likewise, the dual-use potential of existing Chinese investments in Pakistan raises Indian
and U.S. fears over China’s role in the Indian Ocean. China’s recent investments in
Pakistan’s naval capability deepen concern over an opposing naval presence and
possible competition in the Indo-Pacific. While the United States and China do not
explicitly mention their bilateral competition in statements on regional strategies, its
effects could spur greater militarization between India and Pakistan.

Strategic Partners: U.S.-India Defense Ties

Deepening China-Pakistan relations mirror U.S.-India ties. India serves a central role in
Washington’s strategy to blunt China’s rise. Bound by shared interests in the Indo-Pacific,
the United States views India as a “net security provider” in the Indian Ocean region. Over
the past decade, India has stepped into this role, expanding its strategic presence and
defense capabilities in the region. Washington has proved a willing partner.

U.S. arms sales to India have drastically increased over the past decade. For the past five
years, the United States has accounted for 14 percent of Indian defense imports.
Meanwhile, U.S. defense corporations are engaging directly with the Indian government to
build its domestic arms production and defense technology capacity. India and the United
States have also issued joint strategic vision statements and signed agreements to
further strategic security ties, in pursuit of bringing India up to par with NATO allies.

While Washington aims to strengthen Indian defense capabilities to advance its interests
vis-à-vis great power competition with China, New Delhi has its own reasons for
competing with China. While India has long viewed Chins as a threat, this perception has
intensified since border skirmishes reignited the belligerence between China and India.
China is refusing long-term disengagement from the transgressed Ladakh territory, and
building light military infrastructure near the strategically sensitive Depsang Plains. Indian
frustration with Chinese naval presence in the Indian Ocean continues to grow as well.
These dynamics may encourage New Delhi to seek additional security and defense
capabilities from the United States, accelerating militarization in the region.

What to Expect Going Forward

Neither India nor Pakistan seek to be pawns in the geopolitical game of great power
competition. Pakistan’s Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Hina Rabbani Khar stated
Islamabad’s reluctance to indulge in great power rivalry and resulting bloc politics stating,
“We will resist it to our last.” India has also signaled reservations with aligning too closely
with the United States, balancing cooperation with its historic position of strategic
autonomy.

While the United States and China may not aim to escalate
defense competition between India and Pakistan, it may well be
an unintended consequence of current policies.

The India-Pakistan rivalry is not restricted or solely aggravated by the U.S.-China strategic
rivalry. However, competition between the United States and China has resulted in an
accelerated piling of weapons, enabling India and Pakistan’s capabilities against each
 other. This makes the current defense partnership between China-Pakistan and U.S.-India
more threatening to the region’s security dilemma. Instead, both great powers should
adopt a defense cooperation policy in South Asia and the Indo-Pacific to avoid a possible
Pakistan-India or Sino-India armed conflict in the future. This will be difficult amid
intensifying tensions, but the current U.S. initiative of providing F-16 aircraft parts to
Pakistan is a positive step. India and China could pursue similar cooperation on trade and
economics. However, areas of convergence will not be possible unless threat perceptions
are lowered and zero-sum based strategies are left behind.

***

Image 1: Agni-II Missile via Wikimedia Commons

Image 2: IRBM of Pakistan via Wikimedia Commons

Posted in:  Arms Control, Defense, Escalation Control, Geopolitics, India-China, India-
Pakistan Relations, Pakistan-China, US-India

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