COUNTING TECHNIQUES

 Tree diagram
 Multiplication Rule
 Permutation
 Combination
TREE DIAGRAM- a device used to list all possibilities of a sequence of events in a systematic way.
Example:
1. Suppose a sales rep can travel from New York to Pittsburgh by plane, train, or bus, and from
Pittsburgh to Cincinnati by bus, boat, or automobile. List all possible ways he can travel from New York
to Cincinnati.

2. A coin is tossed and a die is rolled. Find all possible outcomes of this sequence of events.
Multiplication Rule
In a sequence of n events in which the first one has k1 possibilities and the second event has k2

and the third has k3, and so forth, the total number of possibilities of the sequence will be
k1 • k2 • k3 ••••• kn
 Note: “And” in this case means to multiply

Examples:
1. A paint manufacturer wishes to manufacture several different paints. The categories include:
Color Red, blue, white, black, green, brown, yellow
Type Latex, oil
Texture Flat, semigloss, high gloss
Use Outdoor, indoor
How many different kinds of paint can be made if a person can select one color, one type, one texture,
and one use?

2. There are four blood types, A, B, AB, and O. Blood can also be Rh+ and Rh-. Finally, a blood donor
can be classified as either male or female. How many different ways can a donor have his or her
blood labeled?

3. In a restaurant a person can choose from the 7 viands, plain, garlic or java rice, 2 kinds of
beverages and 3 kinds of desserts. In how many ways can this person choose what to have if
he is to order one from each group?
7x3x2x3=126
4. The digits 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 are to be used to form a five- digit number. How many different
numbers can be formed if
a. repetitions are permitted?
b. repetition is not allowed?
c. the number must be odd and repetitions are not allowed?
d. the number must be greater than 30, 000 and repetition is not allowed?
a. 5 x 5 x 5 x 5 x 5=55 =3, 125 ways
b. 5 x 4 x 3 x 2 x 1=120 ways
c. 4 x 3 x 2 x 1 x 3=72 ways
d. 3 x 4 x 3 x 2 x 1=72numbers greater than 30,000 can be formed.
NOTE: When determining the number of different possibilities of a sequence of events, one
must know whether repetitions are permissible.
 Two other rules that can be used to determine the total number of possibilities of a sequence
of events are the permutation rule and combination rule. These rules use factorial notation. The
factorial notation uses the exclamation point.
5! Means 5•4•3•2•1
9! = 9•8•7•6•5•4•3•2•1
In order to use the formula in the permutation and combination rules, a special definition of 0!
is needed. 0! = 1
PERMUTATION- an arrangement of n object in a specific order.
Example:

1. Suppose a business owner has a choice of five locations in which to establish her business. She
decides to rank each location according to certain criteria, such as price of the store and parking
facilities. How many different ways can she rank the five locations?
Solution: 5! = 54321 = 120
2. Suppose the business owner in example no. 1 wishes to rank only the top three of the five locations.
How many ways can she rank them?
Solution: 5x4x3=60

Permutation Rule 1: The number of permutations of n distinct objects is n!.

Example: In how many ways can a photographer take pictures of five ladies in a row?

Solution: 5! = 5 4 3 2 1 = 120

Permutation Rule 2: The arrangement of n objects in a specific order using r objects at a time is called a
n!
permutation of n objects taking r objects at a time. It is written as nPr, and the formula is nPr =
( n−r ) !
Example: Three locations were selected from five locations, so n=5 and r=3; hence

5! 5! 5 4 3 21
P =
5 3 = = = 60
( 5−3 ) ! 2! 21
Permutation Rule 3: The number of permutations of n distinct objects arranged in a circle is (n-1)!.

Example: In how many ways can eight persons be seated in a round table?

Solution: P= (8-1)! = 7! = 5040

Permutation Rule 4: The number of distinct permutations of n things of which n 1 are one kind, n2 of a
n!
second kind, …, nk of a kth kind is
n1 ! n2 ! …n k !

Example: How many different ways can 3 red, 4 yellow, and 2 blue bulbs be arranged in a string
of Christmas tree light with 9 sockets?

9!
Solution: The total number of distinct arrangements is, = 1260
3! 4 !2 !
 Permutation Rule 5: The number of ways of partitioning a set of n objects into r cells with n 1 elements in

the first cell, n2 elements in the second, and so on, is (n , n n, … , n )

1 2 r
=
n!
n1 !n !… n !
2 r
Where

n1 + n2 + … + nr = n.

Example: How many ways can 7 people be assigned to 1 triple and 2 double rooms?

Solution: The total number of possible partitions would be (3 , 72 ,2) = 3! 72!! 2 ! = 210
COMBINATION- a selection of distinct objects without regard to order.

Combination Rule: The number of combinations of r objects selected from n objects is denoted by nCr
n!
and is given by the formula: nCr =
( n−r ) ! r !
Example 2: How many combinations of four objects are there taken two at a time?

4! 4! 423 2 !
Solution: 4C2 = = = =6
( 4−2 ) ! 2! 2! 2 ! 21 2!
Note: nCn = 1.

Example: From 4 Republicans and 3 Democrats find the number of committees of 3 that can be formed
with 2 Republicans and 1Democrat.

4!
Solution: The number of ways of selecting 2, Republicans from 4 is nCr = = 6.
2! 2 !
3!
The number of ways of selecting 1 Democrat from 3 is nCr = = 3.
1! 2 !
So 4C2 ● 3C1 = 6 ●3 = 18.

PROBABILITY- as a general concept can be defined as the chance of an event occurring.

Example: Find the sample space for rolling two dice.

Example: Find the sample space for drawing one card from an ordinary deck of cards.
Event- consists of the outcomes of a probability experiment.
-can be one outcome or more than one outcome.
Outcome- result of a trial
Simple Event: An event with one outcome
Compound event: consists of three outcomes or three simple events

THREE BASIC TYPES OF PROBABILITY

1. Classical probability
-uses sample spaces to determine the numerical probability that an event will happen. One does not
actually have to perform the experiment to determine that probability. Classical probability is so named
because it was the first type of probability studied formally by mathematicians in the 17 th and 18th
centuries.
- Classical probability assumes that all outcomes in the sample space are equally likely to occur.
- Equally likely events are events that have the same probability of occurring
-uses the sample space S.

2. Empirical or relative frequency probability

3. Subjective probability

Formula for Classical Probability

number of outcomes∈ E n( E)
The probability of any event E is = P(E) =
total number of outcomes∈the sample space n( S)

Rounding Rule for Probabilities

Probabilities should be expressed as reduced fractions or rounded to two or three decimal places.
When the probability of an event is an extremely small decimal, it is permissible to round the decimal to the
first nonzero digit after the point.
Example: 1. For a card drawn from an ordinary deck, find the probability of getting a king.
4 1
Solution: Since there are 52 cards in a deck and there are 4 kings, P(king) = = .
52 13
2. If a family has three children, find the probability that all children are girls.
Solution: The sample space for the gender of children for a family that has three children is BBB, GBB,
BBG, BGB, GGG, GGB, GBG, and BGG. Since there is one way in eight possibilities for all three
1
children to be girls, P(GGG) =
8
3. A card is drawn from an ordinary deck. Find these probabilities.
a. Of getting a jack.
 b. Of getting the 6 of clubs.
c. Of getting a 3 or a diamond.
Solution:
4 1
a. There are 4 jacks and 52 possible outcomes. Hence, P(jack) = =
52 13
1
b. Since there is only one 6 of clubs, the probability of getting a 6 of clubs is P(6 of clubs) =
52
16 4
c. P(3 of diamond) = =
52 13
Probability Rule 1
- The probability of any event E is a number (either a fraction or decimal) between and including 0
and 1. This is denoted by 0 < P(E) < 1
- Rule 1 states that probabilities cannot be negative or greater than one.
Probability Rule 2
- If an event E cannot occur (i.e., the event contains no members in the sample space), the
probability is zero.
Example: When a single die is rolled, find the probability of getting a 9
Solution: Since the sample space is 1,2,3,4,5, and 6, it is impossible to get a 9, hence, the probability is
0
P(9)= = 0.
6
Probability Rule 3
-If an event E is certain, then the probability of E = 1. In other words, if P(E) = 1, then the event E is
certain to occur.
Example: When a single die is rolled, what is the probability of getting a number less than 7?
Solution: Since all outcomes 1,2,3,4,5, and 6, are less than 7, the probability is P(number less than 7) =
6
=1
6
The event of getting a number less than 7 is certain.
Probability Rule 4
The sum of the probabilities of the outcomes in the sample space is 1.
Example: In the roll of a fair die, each outcome in the sample space has a probability of 16. Hence, the
sum of the probabilities of the outcomes is as shown.
 COMPLEMENT OF AN EVENT
-set of outcomes in a sample space that are not included in the outcomes of event E. The
complement of E is denoted by E.
Example: Find the complement of each event.
a. Rolling a die and getting a 4. (Getting a 1,2,3,5, and 6)
b. Selecting a letter of the alphabet and getting a vowel. (Getting a consonant)
c. Selecting a month and getting a month that begins with a J. (Getting February, March, April, May,
August, September, October, November, and December)
d. Selecting a day of the week and getting a weekday. (Getting a Saturday and Sunday)

Rule for Complementary Events

If the probability of an event or the probability of its complement is known, then the other can be found by
subtracting the probability from 1. P(Ē) = 1 – P(E) or P(E) = 1 – P(Ē) or P(E) + P(Ē) = 1

1
Example: If the probability that a person lives in an industrialized country of the world is , find the probability
5
that a person does not live in an industrialized country.

1 4
Solution: P (not living in an industrialized country) = 1 – P (living in an industrialized country) = 1 - =
5 5
Empirical Probability: relies on actual experience to determine the likelihood of outcomes; based on observations.

Example: 1. In the soft-drink survey just described, find the probability that a person responded “no.”

f 8
Solution: P(E) = =
n 25
2. In a sample of 50 people, 21 had type O blood, 22 had type A blood, 5 had type B blood, and 2 had type AB
blood. Set up a frequency distribution and find the following probabilities:

f 21
a. A person has type O blood. [P (O) = = ]
n 50
22 5 27
b. A person has type A or type B blood. [P (A or B) = + = ]
50 50 50
5 2 7
c. A person has neither type A nor type O blood. [P (neither A nor O) = + = ]
50 50 50
2 48 24
d. A person does not have type AB blood. [P(not AB) = 1 - = = ]
50 50 25
SUBJECTIVE PROBABILITY uses a probability value based on an educated guess or estimate, employing opinions and
inexact information.

Mutually exclusive if two events cannot occur at the same time.

Example:1. Determine which events are mutually exclusive and which are not when a single die is rolled.
 a) Getting an odd number and getting an even number. (mutually exclusive)

b) Getting a 3 and getting an odd number. (not mutually exclusive)

c) Getting an odd number and getting a number less than 4. (not mutually exclusive)

d) Getting a number greater than 4 and getting a number less than 4. (mutually exclusive)

Addition Rule is used when the events are mutually exclusive.

Addition Rule 1

When two events A and B are mutually exclusive, the probability that A or B will occur is P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)

Examples:

1. A restaurant has 3 pieces of apple pie, 5 pieces of cherry pie, and 4 pieces of pumpkin pie in its dessert case.
If a customer selects a piece of pie for dessert, find the probability that it will be either cherry or pumpkin.

Solution: Since there is a total 12 pieces of pie,

5 4 9 3
P(cherry or pumpkin) = P(cherry) + P(pumpkin) + = =
12 12 12 4
The events are mutually exclusive.

2. At a political rally, there are 20 Republicans, 13 Democrats, and 6 Independents. If a person is selected at
random, find the probability that he or she is either a Democrat or Independent.

13 6 19
Solution: P(Democrat or Independent) = P(Democrat) + P(Independent) = + =
39 39 39
Addition Rule 2

If A and B are not mutually exclusive, then P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A and B)

Note: This rule can be also be used when the events are mutually exclusive, since P(A and B) will always equal 0.
However, it is important to make a distinction between the two situations.

Example: 1. In a hospital unit there are eight nurses and five physicians. Seven nurses and three physicians are
females. If a staff person is selected, find the probability that the subject is a nurse or a male.

8 3 1 10
Solution: The probability is P(nurse or male) = P(nurse) + P(male) – P(male nurse) = + - =
13 13 13 13

2. On New Year’s Eve, the probability of a person driving while intoxicated is 0.32, the probability of a person
having a driving accident is 0.09, and the probability of a person having a driving accident while intoxicated is
0.06. What is the probability of a person driving while intoxicated or having a driving accident?

Solution: P(intoxicated or accident) = P(intoxicated) + P(accident) – P(intoxicated and accident) =

0.32 + 0.09 – 0.06 = 0.35

Multiplication Rule 1

When two events are independent, the probability of both occurring is P(A and B) = P(A) * P(B)

Example:1. A coin is flipped and a die is rolled. Find the probability of getting a head on the coin and a 4 on the
die. 

1 1 1
Solution: P(head and 4) = P(head) * P(4) = * =
2 6 12
2. A card is drawn from a deck and replaced; then a second card is drawn. Find the probability of getting a queen
and then ace.

4 4 16 1
Solution:P(queen and ace) = P(queen) * P(ace) = * = =
52 52 2704 169
3. An urn contains three red balls, two blue balls, and five white balls. A ball is selected and its color noted. Then
it is replaced. A second ball is selected and its color noted. Find the probability of each of the following.

2 2 4 1
a. Selecting two blue balls [P(blue and blue) = P(blue) * P(blue) = * = = ]
10 10 100 25
2 5 10 1
b. Selecting a blue ball and then white ball [P(blue and white) = P(blue) * P(white) = * = = ]
10 10 100 10
3 2 6 3
c. Selecting a red ball and then a blue ball[P(red and blue) = P(red) * P(blue) = * = = ]
10 10 100 50
4. Approximately 9% of men have a type of color blindness that prevents them from distinguishing
between red and green. If 3 men are selected at random, find the probability that all of them will have
this type of red-green color blindness. 
Solution:P(C and C and C) = P(C) * P(C) * P(C) = (0.09)(0.09)(0.09) = 0.000729
DEPENDENT EVENTS- When the outcome or occurrence of the first event affects the outcome or occurrence
of the second event in such a way that the probability is changed.
Multiplication Rule 2
  When two events are dependent, the probability of both occurring is, P(A and B) = P(A) * P(B/A)
Example: 1.In a shipment of 25 microwave ovens, 2 are defective. If two ovens are randomly selected
and tested, find the probability that both are defective if the first one is not replaced after it has been
tested.
2 1 2 1
Solution: P(D1 and D2) = P(D1) * P(D2/D1) = * = =
25 24 600 300
2. The World Wide Insurance Company found that 53% of the residents of a city had homeowner’s
insurance with the company. Of these clients, 27% also had automobile insurance with the company. If
a resident is selected at random, find the probability that the resident has both homeowner’s and
automobile insurance with the World Wide Insurance Company.
 Solution: P(H and A) = P(H) * P(A/H) = (0.53)(0.27) = 0.1431
 3. Box 1 contains two red balls and one blue ball. Box 2 contains three blue balls and one red ball. A
coin is tossed. If it falls heads up, box 1 is selected and a ball is drawn. If it falls tails up, box 2 is
selected and a ball is drawn. Find the probability of selecting a red ball.
Solution: With the use of tree diagram, the sample space can be determined. First, assign probabilities
to each branch. Next, using the multiplication rule, multiply the possibilities for each branch.

Finally, use the addition rule, since a red ball can be obtained from box 1 or box 2.
2 1 8 3 11
P(red) = + = + =
6 8 24 24 24
Note: The sum of all probabilities will always be equal to 1.
Conditional Probability
The conditional probability of an event B in relationship to an event A was defined as the
probability that event B occurs after event A has already occurred.
The conditional probability of an event can be found by dividing both sides of the equation for
multiplication rule 2 by P(A), as shown:
P(A and B) = P(A) • P(B/A)
P ( A∧B) P ( A ) • P( B/ A)
=
P( A) P( A)
P ( A∧B)
= P(B/A)
P(B ) P( A)
2

P ( A∧B)
Formula for Conditional Probability: P(B/A) =
P( A)

Example: 1. A box contains black chips and white chips. A person selects two chips without
15
replacement. If the probability of selecting a black chip and white chip is , and the probability
56
3
of selecting a black chip on the first draw is , find the probability of selecting the white chip on
8
the second draw, given that the first chip selected was a black chip.
 Solution: Let B = selecting a black chip W = selecting a white chip
15
P (B∧W ) 56
Then : P(W/B) = =
P(B) 3
8
15 3 15 8 5
= ÷ = • =
56 8 56 3 7
Examp[e:
1. A box contains 24 transistors, four of which are defective. If four are sold at random, find the
following probabilities.
a. Exactly two are defective.
b. None is defective.
c. All are defective.
d. At least one is defective.
Solution:

There are 24C4 ways to sell four transistors, so the denominator in each case will be
10,626.
a. Two defective transistors can be selected as 4C2 and two nondefective ones as 20C2
4 C 2 —20 C 2 1140 190
P(exactly 2 defectives) = = =
24 C 4 10626 1771
20 C 4
b. The number of ways to choose no defective is 20C4. Hence, P(no defective) = =
24 C 4
4845 1615
=
10626 3542
c. The number of ways to choose four defectives from four is 4C4, or 1. Hence, P(all
1 1
defectives) = =
24 C 4 10626
 
d. To find the probability of at least one defective transistor, find the probability that
there are no defective transistors, and then subtract that probability from 1
20 C 4 1615 1927
P(at least 1 defective) = 1 – P(no defectives) = 1 - =1- =
24 C 4 3542 3542
Binomial experiment- probability experiment that satisfies the following four requirements:
1. Each trial can have only two outcomes or outcomes that can be reduced to two outcomes. These
outcomes can be considered as either success or failure.
2. There must be a fixed number of trials.
3. The outcomes of each trial must be independent of each other.
 4. The probability of success must remain the same for each trial.
Binomial distribution- outcomes of a binomial experiment and the corresponding probabilities of these
outcomes
Notation for the Binomial Distribution
P(S) The symbol for the probability of success P(F) The symbol for the probability of failure
p the numerical probability of success q The numerical probability of failure
P(S) = p and P(F) = 1 – p = q n The number of trials
X The number of successes
Note: that 0 < X < n.
Binomial Probability Formula
n!
In a binomial experiment, the probability of exactly X successes in n trials is P(X) =  px 
( n− X ) ! X !
qn-X
Example: 1. A coin is tossed three times. Find the probability of getting exactly two heads.
Solution: HHH, HHT, HTH, THH, TTH, THT, HTT, TTT
3
This answer is or 0.375.
8
n!
The number of ways to get X successes from n trials without regard to order is C =
n X
( n− X ) ! X !
2. If a student randomly guesses at five multiple-choice questions, find the probability that the
student gets exactly three correct. Each question has five possible choices.
1
Solution: In this case n = 5, X = 3, and p = , since there is one chance in five of guessing a
5
5! 1 3
correct answer. Then, P(3) =  ( ¿ ¿ ¿ = 0.05
( 5−3 ) ! 3 ! 5