Emkay

India Equity Research | Chemical

November 8, 2021
©
Sector Update

The Chemical Express

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Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report

Chemical, Petrochemical Prices, Margins and Trends

October 2021

Chemical prices correct as China power disruption event China Acetic Acid Prices – Chart of the Month

subsides Sharp rise and equally sharp fall

China’s decision to tighten its duel control policy of energy in mid-Sep’21 led to a sudden surge in coal
prices, capacity closures and rationalisations, which disrupted supplies and increased chemical
prices. However, the event was short-lived and Chinese authorities took action to arrest the rise in coal
prices, which started retreating from mid-Oct’21. The supply situation from China is likely to start
easing from Feb’22-end after the Winter Olympics ended. Although average chemical prices across the
board rose MoM in Oct’21, they have started easing since mid-Oct’21, signifying the peaking out.
Incrementally, prices may stabilise for the short term and start declining in 2022.
 ~44% MoM surge in China Caustic Soda prices (at peak) – Indian prices have also shot up to ~Rs60/
kg; beneficial for Grasim, DCM Shriram, Meghmani Finechem, GACL, DCW and all the Caustic Soda
players
 ~29% Mom surge in China Soda Ash prices (at peak) – Indian players, Tata Chemicals and GHCL,
have also resorted to prices hikes, which will benefit in current and subsequent quarters. Source: Bloomberg

 ~13-18% MoM rise in PVC-EDC, PVC-VCM spreads – Positive for Chemplast Sanmar, DCM Shriram,
DCW
 Incessant price rise in China glyphosate, peaking at CNY ~78,000/ MT, up ~3x YoY
 China cumulative pesticide production during Jan-Sep’21 up ~20% YoY, easing global availability; This report is solely produced by Emkay Global. The following
person(s) are responsible for the production of the recommendation:
but elevated pricing supported by high input costs and a favorable demand environment
Rohit Nagraj
 ADD recommended for refrigerant gas R-134a from China PR – Positive for SRF rohit.nagraj@emkayglobal.com
+91 22 6624 2490
 ADD imposition on Aceto Acetyl derivatives/ Arylides from China PR – Positive for Laxmi Organics
Ayush Chaturvedi
ayush.chaturvedi@emkayglobal.com
+91 22 6612 1327

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Index

 Chemical, Petrochemicals Prices and Trends – Oct’21

 China Chemicals and Petrochemicals Price Trends

 Chemicals and Petrochemicals Spreads/ Margins

 Chemical Price Trends – Graphs

 China Chemicals and Petrochemicals Trends – Graphs

 Chemicals and Petrochemicals Spreads/ Margins – Graphs

 Currency Movement and Trends – Graphs

 China Monthly Production Trend

 Import Volume (MT)

 Chemicals, Petrochemicals, and Crude Prices

 China Chemicals and Petrochemicals Prices

 Chemicals and Petrochemicals Spreads/ Margins

 Chemical, Petrochemicals, Crude Prices, Margins & Trends – Q3CY2021

 Anti-Dumping (ADD) Investigations/ Impositions

Earnings at Risk
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as defined in the Securities and Futures Act, Chapter 289 of Singapore. 2
Chemical, Petrochemicals Prices and Trends – Oct’21
Chemical Name Latest Prev. % WoW Oct-21 Sep-21 % MoM Oct-21 3Q2021 2Q2021 % QoQ Indian Manufacturers
849 449 89.1 578 432 33.8 411 331 24.1 Grasim, DCM Shriram, Meghmani, GACL, TGV SRAAC,
Caustic Soda (USD/MT)
DCW
Soda Ash (USD/MT) 589 477 23.4 553 429 28.9 378 275 37.2 Tata Chemicals, GHCL, DCW

PVC (USD/MT) 1,850 1,450 27.6 1,708 1,400 22.0 1,334 1,482 -10.0 DCM Shriram, DCW

MDI (USD/MT) 3,385 2,865 -3.3 3,385 2,865 18.2 2,829 3,145 -10.0 BASF

MEG (USD/MT) 730 735 -0.7 815 698 16.8 687 646 6.4 RIL, IOC, India Glycols

Vinyl Acetate Monomer (CNY/MT) 13,957 12,269 13.8 13,291 11,397 16.6 11,513 13,164 -12.5

Acetic Acid (USD/MT) 1,062 1,438 -26.1 1,248 1,113 12.2 989 1,158 -14.5 GNFC, Ashok Alco-Chem

Naphtha (USD/MT) 785 714 10.0 768 688 11.7 678 607 11.6

Phthalic Anhydride (USD/MT) 1,025 905 13.3 969 884 9.6 852 823 3.5 IGPL, Thirumalai Chemicals

1,546 1,624 -4.8 1,581 1,478 7.0 1,397 1,511 -7.6 GNFC, Ashok Alco-Chem, Laxmi Organics, Jubilant
Ethyl Acetate (USD/MT)
Ingrevia
Fluorspar (USD/MT) 2,750 2,550 7.8 2,676 2,550 4.9 2,517 2,583 -2.6

Propylene Korea (USD/MT) 1,035 990 4.5 1,032 985 4.8 982 1,045 -6.0

TDI (USD/MT) 2,357 2,119 11.2 2,239 2,160 3.7 2,186 2,202 -0.7 GNFC

Acetone (USD/MT) 1,030 1,013 1.7 1,043 1,010 3.2 915 1,076 -15.0 Deepak Nitrite, HOCL

Caprolactam (USD/MT) 2,404 2,521 -4.6 2,502 2,429 3.0 2,308 2,081 10.9 GSFC

Phenol (USD/MT) 1,518 1,492 1.7 1,537 1,494 2.9 1,454 1,428 1.9 Deepak Nitrite, HOCL

Acrylonitrile (USD/MT) 2,357 2,320 1.6 2,351 2,327 1.0 2,296 2,231 2.9 RIL

Benzene (USD/MT) 970 905 7.2 958 955 0.3 1,004 1,221 -17.8

Ethylene (USD/MT) 1,185 1,165 1.7 1,146 1,143 0.3 1,141 1,230 -7.2

ABS (USD/MT) 2,450 2,450 0.0 2,438 2,440 -0.1 2,394 2,534 -5.5 INEOS Styrolution, Bhansali Engineering

PP (USD/MT) 2,158 2,191 -1.5 2,166 2,209 -1.9 2,229 2,253 -1.0 RIL, IOC, HMEL, HPL, GAIL, OPAL, MRPL

HDPE (USD/MT) 2,065 2,103 -1.8 2,063 2,120 -2.7 2,197 2,280 -3.6 RIL, IOC, HMEL, HPL, GAIL, OPAL, MRPL

LLDPE (USD/MT) 2,146 2,191 -2.0 2,144 2,209 -2.9 2,294 2,395 -4.2 RIL, IOC, HMEL, HPL, GAIL, OPAL, MRPL

LDPE (USD/MT) 2,567 2,619 -2.0 2,558 2,640 -3.1 2,697 2,740 -1.6 RIL, IOC, HMEL, HPL, GAIL, OPAL, MRPL

Propylene NWE (USD/MT) 1,396 1,400 -0.3 1,351 1,420 -4.9 1,440 1,355 6.3

Note: Q3 related to Q3CY2021 (Jul-Sep qtr), latest prices for week ended 29th Oct 2021

Earnings at Risk
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as defined in the Securities and Futures Act, Chapter 289 of Singapore. 3
China Chemicals and Petrochemicals Price Trends
% MoM
Chemical Name (Unit) Latest Prev. % WoW Oct-21 Sep-21 3Q2021 2Q2021 % QoQ Indian Manufacturers
Oct-21
Grasim, DCM Shriram, Meghmani, GACL,
Andhra Sugars, TGV SRAAC, DCW,
Caustic Soda (CNY/MT) 1,596 1,370 19.3 1,483 890 66.6 743 339 119.1 Chemfab Alkalies, Punjab Alkalies and
Chemicals

Methanol (CNY/MT) 3,991 3,615 10.9 3,803 2,926 30.0 2,633 1,680 56.7

Glyphosate, 95% (CNY/MT) 77,938 72,500 9.8 75,219 60,515 24.3 54,217 30,481 77.9

Urea (CNY/MT) 3,144 3,005 2.3 3,075 2,695 14.1 2,738 1,709 60.2

Butadiene Rubber (CNY/MT) 15,159 13,730 -3.3 14,445 13,376 8.0 13,873 7,919 75.2

Benzene (CNY/MT) 8,477 8,240 9.6 8,358 8,146 2.6 7,931 5,226 51.8

Compound Fertilizer (CNY/MT) 3,217 3,206 0.2 3,212 3,204 0.2 3,150 1,705 84.7
Dharamsi Morarji Chemicals, Amal, Dye
Sulfuric Acid (CNY/MT) 926 990 2.3 958 1,016 -5.7 874 400 118.6 manufacturers for captive consumption

Note: Q3 related to Q3CY2021 (Jul-Sep qtr), China Government, latest prices as on 20th Oct 2021

Earnings at Risk
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as defined in the Securities and Futures Act, Chapter 289 of Singapore. 4
Chemicals and Petrochemicals Spreads/Margins
% MoM
Chemical Name Latest Prev. % WoW Oct-21 Sep-21 3Q2021 2Q2021 % QoQ Indian Manufacturers
Oct-21
PVC-VCM (USD/MT) 250 230 8.7 281 233 20.9 219 272 -19.3 DCW

PVC-EDC (USD/MT) 845 695 21.6 767 648 18.5 618 777 -20.5
Caprolactam-Benzene ((USD/MT)) 1,218 1,253 -2.8 1,263 1,173 7.6 1,061 909 16.7 GSFC

Phenol/ Acetone-Benzene/ Propylene (USD/MT) 750 700 7.1 754 719 4.9 639 688 -7.2 Deepak Nitrite, HOCL

PP-Propylene (USD/MT) 762 791 -3.7 816 788 3.5 772 898 -14.0
Ethylene-Naphtha (USD/MT) 400 451 -11.4 378 455 -16.9 515 623 -17.2

Note: Q3 related to Q3CY2021 (Jul-Sep qtr), latest prices for week ended 29th Oct 2021

Earnings at Risk
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as defined in the Securities and Futures Act, Chapter 289 of Singapore. 5
China Chemical Trends
Sharp ~34% MoM increase in Caustic Soda prices

Caustic Soda SE Asia China Acetic Acid spot

900 1,600
849
800 1,400
700 1,200
(US$/ MT)

(US$/ MT)
600 1,000
500 800
1,062
400 600
300 400
200 200
Jul-17

Jul-18

Jul-19

Jul-20

Jul-21
Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19

Jan-20

Jan-21
Apr-17

Oct-17

Apr-18

Oct-18

Apr-19

Oct-19

Apr-20

Oct-20

Apr-21

Oct-21

Jul-17

Jul-18

Jul-19

Jul-20

Jul-21
Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19

Jan-20

Jan-21
Apr-17

Oct-17

Apr-18

Oct-18

Apr-19

Oct-19

Apr-20

Oct-20

Apr-21

Oct-21
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg

China Acetone spot China Acrylonitrile spot

2,000 2,900
1,800 2,600
1,600
2,300
1,400
(US$/ MT)

(US$/ MT) 2,357

1030 2,000
1,200
1,700
1,000
1,400
800
600 1,100

400 800
Jul-17

Jul-18

Jul-19

Jul-20

Jul-21

Jul-17

Jul-18

Jul-19

Jul-20

Jul-21
Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19

Jan-20

Jan-21

Oct-21

Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19

Jan-20

Jan-21
Apr-17

Oct-17

Apr-18

Oct-18

Apr-19

Oct-19

Apr-20

Oct-20

Apr-21

Apr-17

Oct-17

Apr-18

Oct-18

Apr-19

Oct-19

Apr-20

Oct-20

Apr-21

Oct-21
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg

Emkay Research is also available on www.emkayglobal.com and Bloomberg EMKAY<GO>. Please refer to the last page of the report on Restrictions on Distribution. In Singapore, this research report or research analyses may only be distributed to Institutional Investors, Expert Investors or Accredited Investors
Earnings at Risk
as defined in the Securities and Futures Act, Chapter 289 of Singapore. 6
..continued
~18% MoM increase in MDI prices

China Caprolactam spot China Ethyl Acetate spot

3,200 1,800
1,546
2,800 1,600
2,404
2,400 1,400
(US$/ MT)

(US$/ MT)
2,000 1,200

1,600 1,000

1,200 800

800 600
Jul-17

Jan-18

Jul-18

Jul-19

Jul-20

Jul-21
Jan-17

Jan-19

Jan-20

Jan-21
Oct-17
Apr-17

Apr-18

Oct-18

Apr-19

Oct-19

Apr-20

Oct-20

Apr-21

Oct-21

Jul-17

Jul-18

Jul-19

Jul-20

Jul-21
Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19

Jan-20

Jan-21
Apr-17

Oct-18
Oct-17

Apr-18

Apr-19

Oct-19

Apr-20

Oct-20

Apr-21

Oct-21
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg

China Fluorspar 97% China MDI spot

4,000 6,200

5,200
3,500
4,200 3,385
2,750
(CNY/ MT)

3,000 (US$/ MT)

3,200
2,500
2,200

2,000 1,200

1,500 200 Jul-17

Jul-18

Jul-19

Jul-20

Jul-21
Jan-20
Jan-17

Nov-17
Jan-18

Nov-18
Jan-19

Nov-19

Nov-20
Jan-21
May-17

Sep-17

Sep-18

Sep-19

Sep-20

Mar-21
Mar-17

Mar-18
May-18

Mar-19
May-19

Mar-20
May-20

May-21
Jul-19
Jul-17

Jul-18

Jul-20

Jul-21
Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19

Jan-20

Jan-21
Apr-17

Oct-17

Apr-18

Oct-18

Apr-19

Oct-19

Apr-20

Oct-20

Apr-21

Oct-21

Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg

Earnings at Risk
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as defined in the Securities and Futures Act, Chapter 289 of Singapore. 7
…continued
~29% MoM increase in soda ash prices

China Phenol spot China Soda Ash spot

2,000
700
1,800
1,518 600 589.3
1,600
500
(US$/ MT)

1,400

(US$/ MT)
1,200 400

1,000 300

800 200
600
100
Jul-17

Jul-18

Jul-19

Jul-20

Jul-21
Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19

Jan-20

Jan-21
Apr-17

Oct-17

Apr-18

Oct-18

Apr-19

Oct-19

Apr-20

Oct-20

Apr-21

Oct-21

Jul-20

Jul-21
Jan-20

Jun-20

Jan-21

Jun-21
Aug-20
Sep-20

Aug-21
Sep-21
Feb-20
Mar-20
Apr-20
May-20

Oct-20
Nov-20
Dec-20

Feb-21
Mar-21
Apr-21

Oct-21
May-21
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg

China TDI spot Malaysia/ Indonesia Palm Kernel Oil CIF Rotterdam
7,000 2,400

6,000 2,000 2,040

5,000
(US$/ MT)
1,600
(US$/ MT)

4,000
2,357 1,200
3,000
800
2,000

1,000 400

Jul-20
Jul-17

Jul-18

Jul-19

Jul-21
Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19

Jan-20

Jan-21
Apr-17

Oct-17

Apr-18

Oct-18

Apr-19

Oct-19

Apr-20

Oct-20

Apr-21

Oct-21
Jul-20
Jul-17

Jul-18

Jul-19

Jul-21
Jan-21
Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19

Jan-20

Oct-20
Apr-17

Oct-17

Apr-18

Oct-18

Apr-19

Oct-19

Apr-20

Apr-21

Oct-21

Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg

Emkay Research is also available on www.emkayglobal.com and Bloomberg EMKAY<GO>. Please refer to the last page of the report on Restrictions on Distribution. In Singapore, this research report or research analyses may only be distributed to Institutional Investors, Expert Investors or Accredited Investors
Earnings at Risk
as defined in the Securities and Futures Act, Chapter 289 of Singapore. 8
Petrochemical Price Trends
~13% MoM increase in Toluene prices; ~12% MoM increase in naphtha price

Benzene FOB Rotterdam Toluene FOB Rotterdam

1,800 1,000
890
1,600 900
1,400 970 800
1,200 700

(US$/ MT)
(US$/ MT)

1,000 600
800 500
600 400
400 300
200 200

Jul-19
Jul-17

Jul-18

Jul-20

Jul-21
Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19

Jan-20

Jan-21
Oct-19
Apr-17

Oct-17

Apr-18

Oct-18

Apr-19

Apr-20

Oct-20

Apr-21

Oct-21
Jul-19
Jul-17

Jul-18

Jul-20

Jul-21
Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19

Jan-20

Jan-21
Apr-17

Oct-17

Apr-18

Oct-18

Apr-19

Oct-19

Apr-20

Oct-20

Apr-21

Oct-21
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg

Naphtha CNF Japan Ethylene Spot CIF NWE

900 1,600
800 1,185
785 1,400
700
1,200
600
(US$/ MT)

(US$/ MT)
1,000
500
400 800

300 600
200 400
100 200
Jul-18
Jul-17

Jul-19

Jul-20

Jul-21
Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19

Jan-20

Jan-21
Apr-17

Oct-17

Apr-18

Oct-18

Apr-19

Oct-19

Apr-20

Oct-20

Apr-21

Oct-21

Jul-20
Jul-17

Jul-18

Jul-19

Jul-21
Jan-17

Jan-18

Oct-18
Jan-19

Jan-20

Jan-21
Apr-17

Oct-17

Apr-18

Apr-19

Oct-19

Apr-20

Oct-20

Apr-21

Oct-21
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg

Emkay Research is also available on www.emkayglobal.com and Bloomberg EMKAY<GO>. Please refer to the last page of the report on Restrictions on Distribution. In Singapore, this research report or research analyses may only be distributed to Institutional Investors, Expert Investors or Accredited Investors
Earnings at Risk
as defined in the Securities and Futures Act, Chapter 289 of Singapore. 9
..continued
~8% MoM increase in Ethylene prices

Ethylene FOB Korea Spot Propylene Spot CIF NWE

1,400 1,750
1,155
1,200 1,550

1,000 1,350
(US$/ MT)

(US$/ MT)
800 1,150
1,396
600 950

400 750

200 550
Jul-18
Jul-17

Jul-19

Jul-20

Jul-21
Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19

Jan-20

Jan-21
Apr-17

Oct-17

Apr-18

Oct-18

Apr-19

Oct-19

Apr-20

Oct-20

Apr-21

Oct-21

Jul-17

Jul-18

Jul-19

Jul-20

Jul-21
Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19

Jan-20

Jan-21
Oct-18
Apr-17

Oct-17

Apr-18

Apr-19

Oct-19

Apr-20

Oct-20

Apr-21

Oct-21
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg

Propylene FOB Korea Spot HDPE Injection Europe

1,300 2,600
1,200 2,400
1,035
1,100 2,200
1,000 2,000
(US$/ MT)

(US$/ MT)
900 1,800
2,065
800 1,600
700 1,400
600 1,200
500 1,000
Jul-18
Jul-17

Jul-19

Jul-20

Jul-21
Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19

Jan-20

Jan-21
Apr-17

Oct-17

Apr-18

Oct-18

Apr-19

Oct-19

Apr-20

Oct-20

Apr-21

Oct-21

Jul-17

Jul-18

Jul-19

Jul-20

Jul-21
Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19

Jan-20

Jan-21
Apr-17

Oct-17

Apr-18

Oct-18

Apr-19

Oct-19

Apr-20

Oct-20

Apr-21

Oct-21
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg

Earnings at Risk
Emkay Research is also available on www.emkayglobal.com and Bloomberg EMKAY<GO>. Please refer to the last page of the report on Restrictions on Distribution. In Singapore, this research report or research analyses may only be distributed to Institutional Investors, Expert Investors or Accredited Investors
as defined in the Securities and Futures Act, Chapter 289 of Singapore. 10
…continued
~25% MoM increase in EDC prices

LDPE Europe LLDPE Butene Europe

3,200 2,750

2,900 2,500

2,600 2,250

(US$/ MT)
(US$/ MT)

2,300 2,567 2,000

2,146
2,000 1,750

1,700 1,500

1,400 1,250

1,100 1,000

Jul-17

Jan-18

Jul-18

Jul-19

Jul-20

Jul-21
Jan-17

Jan-19

Jan-20

Jan-21
Oct-17
Apr-17

Apr-18

Oct-18

Apr-19

Oct-19

Apr-20

Oct-20

Apr-21

Oct-21
Jul-17

Jul-18

Jan-19

Jul-19

Jul-20

Jul-21
Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-20

Jan-21
Apr-19
Apr-17

Oct-17

Apr-18

Oct-18

Oct-19

Apr-20

Oct-20

Apr-21

Oct-21
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg

PP Injection Europe EDC CFR SEA

2,600 1,150

2,300 1,005
900
(US$/ MT)

2,000 2,158 (US$/ MT)

650
1,700

400
1,400

1,100 150
Jul-17

Jul-18

Jul-19

Jul-20

Jul-21
Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19

Jan-20

Oct-20
Jan-21
Apr-17

Oct-17

Apr-18

Oct-18

Apr-19

Oct-19

Apr-20

Apr-21

Oct-21

Jul-17

Jul-18

Jul-19

Jul-20

Jul-21
Jan-21
Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19

Jan-20
Apr-17

Oct-17

Apr-18

Oct-18

Apr-19

Oct-19

Apr-20

Oct-20

Apr-21

Oct-21
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg

Emkay Research is also available on www.emkayglobal.com and Bloomberg EMKAY<GO>. Please refer to the last page of the report on Restrictions on Distribution. In Singapore, this research report or research analyses may only be distributed to Institutional Investors, Expert Investors or Accredited Investors
Earnings at Risk
as defined in the Securities and Futures Act, Chapter 289 of Singapore. 11
…continued
~22%/22%/17% MoM increase in PVC/VCM/MEG prices

VCM CFR SEA PVC CFR SEA

1,900 2,000
1,850
1,650 1,600 1,800

1,600
1,400
(US$/ MT)

(US$/ MT)
1,400
1,150
1,200
900
1,000
650 800

400 600
Jul-18
Jul-17

Jul-19

Jul-20

Jul-21

Jul-17

Jul-18

Jul-19

Jul-20

Jul-21
Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19

Jan-20

Jan-21

Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19

Jan-20

Jan-21
Apr-17

Oct-17

Apr-18

Oct-18

Apr-19

Oct-19

Apr-20

Oct-20

Apr-21

Oct-21

Apr-17

Oct-17

Apr-18

Oct-18

Apr-19

Oct-19

Apr-20

Oct-20

Apr-21

Oct-21
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg

MEG CFR South East Asia Price PTA CFR SEA

1,100 1,300

1,000
1,100
900 730
800 (US$/ MT) 900 755
(US$/ MT)

700
700
600
500 500
400
300 300
Jul-17

Jul-18

Jul-19

Jul-20

Jul-21
Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19

Jan-20

Jan-21
Apr-18
Apr-17

Oct-17

Oct-18

Apr-19

Oct-19

Apr-20

Oct-20

Apr-21

Oct-21
Jul-18
Jul-17

Jul-19

Jul-20

Jul-21
Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19

Jan-20

Jan-21
Apr-17

Oct-17

Apr-18

Oct-18

Apr-19

Oct-19

Apr-20

Oct-20

Apr-21

Oct-21

Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg

Earnings at Risk
Emkay Research is also available on www.emkayglobal.com and Bloomberg EMKAY<GO>. Please refer to the last page of the report on Restrictions on Distribution. In Singapore, this research report or research analyses may only be distributed to Institutional Investors, Expert Investors or Accredited Investors
as defined in the Securities and Futures Act, Chapter 289 of Singapore. 12
…continued
~5% MoM increase in PX prices

PX FOB Rotterdam ABS CFR SEA

1,400
3,100
1,200 2,800

1,000 2,500
(US$/ MT)

(US$/ MT)
2,200
800
2,450
1,900
600 975
1,600
400
1,300
200
1,000
Jul-17

Jul-18

Jul-19

Jul-20

Jul-21
Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19

Jan-20

Jan-21
Oct-20
Apr-17

Oct-17

Apr-18

Oct-18

Apr-19

Oct-19

Apr-20

Apr-21

Oct-21

Jul-18

Jul-20
Jul-17

Jan-18

Jul-19

Jul-21
Jan-17

Jan-19

Jan-20

Jan-21
Apr-17

Oct-17

Apr-18

Oct-18

Apr-19

Oct-19

Apr-20

Oct-20

Apr-21

Oct-21
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg

Phthalic Anhydride CFR FEA ACN CFR SEA

1,200 3,300

1,100 2,230
1,025 2,800
1,000

(US$/ MT)
2,300
(US$/ MT)

900

800 1,800
700
1,300
600

500 800

Jul-19
Jul-17

Jul-18

Jul-20

Jul-21
Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19

Jan-20

Jan-21
Apr-17

Oct-17

Apr-18

Oct-18

Apr-19

Oct-19

Apr-20

Oct-20

Apr-21

Oct-21
Jul-17

Jul-18

Jul-19

Jul-20

Jul-21
Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19

Jan-20

Oct-20
Jan-21
Apr-17

Oct-17

Apr-18

Oct-18

Apr-19

Oct-19

Apr-20

Apr-21

Oct-21

Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg

Emkay Research is also available on www.emkayglobal.com and Bloomberg EMKAY<GO>. Please refer to the last page of the report on Restrictions on Distribution. In Singapore, this research report or research analyses may only be distributed to Institutional Investors, Expert Investors or Accredited Investors
Earnings at Risk
as defined in the Securities and Futures Act, Chapter 289 of Singapore. 13
…continued
~17% MoM increase in vinyl acetate prices; ~14% MoM increase in WTI prices

China Vinyl acetate monomer Brent (US$/ bbl)

14,500
13,957 90.0
83.92
80.0
12,000
70.0
(CNY/ MT)

60.0
9,500
50.0
40.0
7,000
30.0
20.0
4,500
10.0
Jul-17

Jan-18

Jul-18

Jul-19

Jul-20

Jul-21
Jan-17

Jan-19

Jan-20

Jan-21
Oct-20
Apr-17

Oct-17

Apr-18

Oct-18

Apr-19

Oct-19

Apr-20

Apr-21

Oct-21

Jul-17

Jul-18

Jul-19

Jul-20

Jul-21
Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19

Jan-20

Jan-21
Apr-17

Oct-17

Apr-18

Oct-18

Apr-19

Oct-19

Apr-20

Oct-20

Apr-21

Oct-21
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg

WTI (US$/ bbl) Dubai-Oman (US$/ bbl)

90.0
90.0 82.19
83.57 80.0
80.0
70.0 70.0
60.0 60.0
(US$/bbl)

50.0 50.0
40.0
40.0
30.0
30.0
20.0
20.0
10.0
Jul-17

Jul-18

Jul-19

Jul-20

Jul-21
Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19

Jan-20

Jan-21
Apr-17

Oct-17

Apr-18

Oct-18

Apr-19

Oct-19

Apr-20

Oct-20

Apr-21

Oct-21
Apr-17

Oct-17

Oct-18

Oct-19

Oct-20

Oct-21
Jul-17

Apr-18
Jul-18

Apr-19
Jul-19

Apr-20
Jul-20

Apr-21
Jul-21
Jan-21
Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19

Jan-20

Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg

Earnings at Risk
Emkay Research is also available on www.emkayglobal.com and Bloomberg EMKAY<GO>. Please refer to the last page of the report on Restrictions on Distribution. In Singapore, this research report or research analyses may only be distributed to Institutional Investors, Expert Investors or Accredited Investors
as defined in the Securities and Futures Act, Chapter 289 of Singapore. 14
China Chemicals and Petrochemicals Price Trends
~67% MoM surge in Caustic Soda prices, Glyphosate up ~24% MoM in October
China Caustic Soda (Liquid 32%) (CNY/ MT) Compound Fertilizer (of Pot. Sulfate) (CNY/ MT)
1,800 3,450
1,596
1,600
3,200 3,217
1,400
(CNY/ MT)

(CNY/ MT)
1,200 2,950

1,000
2,700
800
2,450
600

400 2,200
Nov-18

Nov-19

Nov-20
Jul-18

Jul-19

Jul-20

Jul-21
Jan-18

Jan-19

Jan-20

Jan-21
Sep-19
Sep-18

Sep-20

Sep-21
Mar-18

Mar-19

Mar-20

Mar-21
May-18

May-19

May-20

May-21

Nov-18

Nov-19

Nov-20
Jan-18

Jul-18

Jul-19

Jul-20

Jul-21
Jan-19

Jan-20

Jan-21
Sep-18

Sep-19

Sep-20

Sep-21
Mar-18

Mar-19

Mar-20

Mar-21
May-18

May-19

May-20

May-21
Source: China Government, data till 20th Oct’21 Source: China Government, data till 20th Oct’21

Methanol (CNY/ MT) Pesticide (Glyphosate, 95%) (CNY/ MT)

4,000 80,000
3,991 77,938
3,600 70,000

3,200 60,000

(CNY/ MT)
(CNY/ MT)

2,800
50,000
2,400
40,000
2,000
30,000
1,600

1,200 20,000
Jul-18

Jul-19

Jul-20

Jul-21
Jan-19

Nov-20
Jan-18

Nov-18

Sep-19
Nov-19
Jan-20

Jan-21
Sep-18

Sep-20

Mar-21

Sep-21
Mar-18
May-18

Mar-19
May-19

Mar-20
May-20

May-21
Jul-18

Jul-19

Jul-20

Jul-21
Jan-18

Nov-18
Jan-19

Nov-19
Jan-20

Nov-20
Jan-21
Sep-18

Sep-19

Sep-20

Sep-21
Mar-18
May-18

Mar-19
May-19

Mar-20
May-20

Mar-21
May-21

Source: China Government, data till 20th Oct’21 Source: China Government, data till 20th Oct’21

Emkay Research is also available on www.emkayglobal.com and Bloomberg EMKAY<GO>. Please refer to the last page of the report on Restrictions on Distribution. In Singapore, this research report or research analyses may only be distributed to Institutional Investors, Expert Investors or Accredited Investors
Earnings at Risk
as defined in the Securities and Futures Act, Chapter 289 of Singapore. 15
..continued
~14% MoM rise in urea prices in October

Sulfuric Acid (98%) (CNY/ MT) Urea (Small Granule)(CNY/ MT)

1,100
3,100 3,144

850 2,850
(CNY/ MT)

2,600

(CNY/ MT)
926
600
2,350

2,100
350
1,850

100 1,600
Nov-18

Nov-19

Nov-20
Jul-18

Jul-19

Jul-20

Jul-21
Jan-18

Jan-19

Jan-20

Jan-21
Sep-20
Sep-18

Sep-19

Mar-20

Sep-21
Mar-18

Mar-19

May-20

Mar-21
May-18

May-19

May-21

Nov-18

Nov-19

Nov-20
Jul-18

Jul-19

Jul-20

Jul-21
Jan-18

Jan-19

Jan-20

Jan-21
Sep-18

Sep-19

Sep-20

Sep-21
Mar-18

Mar-19

Mar-20

Mar-21
May-18

May-19

May-20

May-21
Source: China Government, data till 20th Oct’21 Source: China Government, data till 20th Oct’21

Benzene (Industrial Grade) (CNY/ MT) Butadiene Rubber (BR9000) (CNY/ MT)
10,000 16,000
8,477 15,159
14,500
8,500
13,000
(CNY/ MT)
(CNY/ MT)

7,000
11,500
5,500
10,000

4,000 8,500

2,500 7,000
Jul-18

Nov-18

Jul-19

Nov-19

Jul-20

Jul-21
Jan-20
Jan-18

Jan-19

Nov-20
Jan-21
Sep-18

Sep-19

Sep-20

Sep-21
Mar-18
May-18

Mar-19
May-19

Mar-20
May-20

Mar-21
May-21
Jul-18

Jul-19

Jul-20

Jul-21
Jan-19
Jan-18

Nov-18

Nov-19
Jan-20

Nov-20
Jan-21
Sep-18

Mar-19

Sep-19

Sep-20

Sep-21
Mar-18
May-18

May-19

Mar-20
May-20

Mar-21
May-21

Source: China Government, data till 20th Oct’21 Source: China Government, data till 20th Oct’21

Emkay Research is also available on www.emkayglobal.com and Bloomberg EMKAY<GO>. Please refer to the last page of the report on Restrictions on Distribution. In Singapore, this research report or research analyses may only be distributed to Institutional Investors, Expert Investors or Accredited Investors
Earnings at Risk
as defined in the Securities and Futures Act, Chapter 289 of Singapore. 16
Chemicals and Petrochemicals Spreads/ Margins
~5% MoM increase in Phenol/ Acetone- Benzene/ Propylene spreads; ~17% MoM decline in Ethylene-Naphtha spreads

Caprolactam-Benzene Phenol/ Acetone- Benzene/ Propylene

2,000 1,600
1,800 1,400

1,600 1,200
1,218
(US$/ MT)

1,000

(US$/ MT)
1,400 750
800
1,200
600
1,000
400
800
200
600 0
Jul-17

Jul-18

Jul-19

Jul-20

Jul-21
Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19

Jan-20

Jan-21
Oct-17

Apr-20
Apr-17

Apr-18

Oct-18

Apr-19

Oct-19

Oct-20

Apr-21

Oct-21

Jul-17

Jul-18

Jul-19

Jul-20

Jul-21
Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19

Jan-20

Jan-21
Apr-17

Oct-17

Apr-18

Oct-18

Apr-19

Oct-19

Apr-20

Oct-20

Apr-21

Oct-21
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg

PP-Propylene Ethylene-Naphtha
1,100 800

1,000 700

900 762 600 400

800 500
(US$/ MT)
(US$/ MT)

700 400

600 300

500 200

400 100

300 0
Jul-17

Jul-18

Jul-19

Jul-20

Jul-21
Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19

Jan-20

Jan-21
Apr-20
Apr-17

Oct-17

Apr-18

Oct-18

Apr-19

Oct-19

Oct-20

Apr-21

Oct-21
Jul-17

Jul-18

Jul-19

Jul-20

Jul-21
Jan-18
Jan-17

Jan-19

Jan-20

Jan-21
Apr-17

Oct-17

Apr-18

Oct-18

Apr-19

Oct-19

Apr-20

Oct-20

Apr-21

Oct-21

Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg

Earnings at Risk
Emkay Research is also available on www.emkayglobal.com and Bloomberg EMKAY<GO>. Please refer to the last page of the report on Restrictions on Distribution. In Singapore, this research report or research analyses may only be distributed to Institutional Investors, Expert Investors or Accredited Investors
as defined in the Securities and Futures Act, Chapter 289 of Singapore. 17
…continued
~21% MoM increase in PVC-VCM spreads; ~19% MoM increase in PVC-EDC spreads

PVC-EDC PVC-VCM
400
1,000 250
900
845 350

300
800

(US$/ MT)
(US$/ MT)

250
700
200
600
150
500
100
400
50
300

Oct-21
Jul-17
Apr-17

Oct-17

Apr-18

Oct-18
Jul-18

Apr-19

Oct-19
Jul-19

Apr-20

Oct-20
Jul-20

Apr-21
Jul-21
Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19

Jan-20

Jan-21
Jul-21
Jul-17

Jul-18

Jul-19

Jul-20
Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19

Jan-20

Jan-21
Apr-17

Oct-17

Apr-18

Oct-18

Apr-19

Oct-19

Apr-20

Oct-20

Apr-21

Oct-21
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg

Earnings at Risk
Emkay Research is also available on www.emkayglobal.com and Bloomberg EMKAY<GO>. Please refer to the last page of the report on Restrictions on Distribution. In Singapore, this research report or research analyses may only be distributed to Institutional Investors, Expert Investors or Accredited Investors
as defined in the Securities and Futures Act, Chapter 289 of Singapore. 18
Currency Movement and Trends

Dollar Index USDINR

105.0 60.0
102.5 62.0
100.0 64.0
66.0
97.5
68.0
95.0 94.12 70.0
92.5 72.0
90.0 74.0
76.0
87.5 74.88
78.0
85.0 80.0
Apr-19

Oct-20
Jul-17
Apr-17

Oct-17

Apr-18

Oct-18

Oct-19
Jul-18

Apr-20
Jan-19

Jul-19

Jul-20

Apr-21

Oct-21
Jul-21
Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-20

Jan-21

Oct-19
Apr-17

Oct-17

Oct-21
Jul-17

Apr-18

Oct-18
Jul-18

Apr-19
Jul-19

Apr-20

Oct-20
Jul-20

Apr-21
Jul-21
Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19

Jan-20

Jan-21
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg

USDCNY EURINR
6.0 65.0

6.2 70.0
6.4
75.0
6.6
6.41 80.0 87.28
6.8
85.0
7.0

7.2 90.0

7.4 95.0
Jul-17

Jul-18

Jul-19

Jul-20

Jul-21
Jan-20
Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19

Oct-19

Jan-21
Apr-17

Oct-17

Apr-18

Oct-18

Apr-19

Apr-20

Oct-20

Apr-21

Oct-21
Jul-17

Jul-18

Jul-19

Jul-20

Jul-21
Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19

Jan-20

Jan-21
Apr-19

Oct-21
Apr-17

Oct-17

Apr-18

Oct-18

Oct-19

Apr-20

Oct-20

Apr-21

Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg

Emkay Research is also available on www.emkayglobal.com and Bloomberg EMKAY<GO>. Please refer to the last page of the report on Restrictions on Distribution. In Singapore, this research report or research analyses may only be distributed to Institutional Investors, Expert Investors or Accredited Investors
Earnings at Risk
as defined in the Securities and Futures Act, Chapter 289 of Singapore. 19
China Monthly Production Trend
Chinese Caustic Soda and Soda Ash production during 2021 (cumulative till Sep) the highest compared to previous years

Phosphate Ore (in '000) Caustic Soda (in '000)

17,000 3,480

15,000
3,230
13,000

11,000 2,980

9,000
2,730
7,000
2,480
5,000

3,000 2,230
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Source: China Government, *data till Sep 2021 Source: China Government, *data till Sep 2021

Sulfuric Acid (in '000) Soda Ash (in '000)

2,700
8,500

8,000 2,550

7,500 2,400

7,000
2,250
6,500
2,100
6,000
1,950
5,500

5,000 1,800
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Source: China Government, *data till Sep 2021 Source: China Government, *data till Sep 2021

Earnings at Risk
Emkay Research is also available on www.emkayglobal.com and Bloomberg EMKAY<GO>. Please refer to the last page of the report on Restrictions on Distribution. In Singapore, this research report or research analyses may only be distributed to Institutional Investors, Expert Investors or Accredited Investors
as defined in the Securities and Futures Act, Chapter 289 of Singapore. 20
…continued
Chinese Ethylene and Syn. Rubber production highest ever for 2021 vs. previous years; Fertilizer production flat YoY till Sep-21
Ethylene (in '000) Chemical Fertilizers (in '000)
2,750 6,300

2,500 5,750
2,250
5,200
2,000
4,650
1,750
4,100
1,500
3,550
1,250
3,000
1,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Source: China Government, *data till Sep 2021 Source: China Government, *data till Sep 2021

Pesticides (in '000) Synthetic Rubber (in '000)

400 800

350
700

300
600
250
500
200

150 400

100 300
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Source: China Government, *data till Sep 2021 Source: China Government, *data till Sep 2021

Earnings at Risk
Emkay Research is also available on www.emkayglobal.com and Bloomberg EMKAY<GO>. Please refer to the last page of the report on Restrictions on Distribution. In Singapore, this research report or research analyses may only be distributed to Institutional Investors, Expert Investors or Accredited Investors
as defined in the Securities and Futures Act, Chapter 289 of Singapore. 21
…continued
Chinese Synthetic Fiber production has been the highest ever in 2021 vs. previous years

Synthetic Detergents (in '000) Synthetic Fiber (in '000)

1,400 6,500

1,250
5,500
1,100

950 4,500

800
3,500
650

500 2,500
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Source: China Government, *data till Sep 2021 Source: China Government, *data till Sep 2021

Earnings at Risk
Emkay Research is also available on www.emkayglobal.com and Bloomberg EMKAY<GO>. Please refer to the last page of the report on Restrictions on Distribution. In Singapore, this research report or research analyses may only be distributed to Institutional Investors, Expert Investors or Accredited Investors
as defined in the Securities and Futures Act, Chapter 289 of Singapore. 22
India Import Volumes
Caustic Soda imports declined YoY in past few months

Acetic Acid Caustic Soda

(MT) (MT)
1,50,000 50,000

1,25,000 40,000
1,00,000
30,000
75,000
20,000
50,000

25,000 10,000

0 0
Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar

FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22

Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry, India Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry, India

Phenol Soda Ash

(MT) (MT)
40,000 1,25,000

30,000 1,00,000

75,000
20,000
50,000
10,000
25,000

0 0
Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22

Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry, India Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry, India

Earnings at Risk
Emkay Research is also available on www.emkayglobal.com and Bloomberg EMKAY<GO>. Please refer to the last page of the report on Restrictions on Distribution. In Singapore, this research report or research analyses may only be distributed to Institutional Investors, Expert Investors or Accredited Investors
as defined in the Securities and Futures Act, Chapter 289 of Singapore. 23
Chemical, Petrochemicals, and Crude Prices

Chemical Name (Unit) Latest Prev. Oct-21 Sep-21 3Q2021 2Q2021 2020 2019 % WoW % MoM Oct-21 % QoQ 3Q2021 % YoY 2020 % YoY 2019
Caustic Soda SE Asia (US$/ MT) 849 449 578 432 411 331 282 341 89.1 33.8 24.1 (17.4) (4.5)
China Acetic Acid spot (US$/MT) 1,062 1,438 1,248 1,113 989 1,158 385 435 (26.1) 12.2 (14.5) (11.4) (0.8)
China Acetone spot (US$/ MT) 1,030 1,013 1,043 1,010 915 1,076 1,038 552 1.7 3.2 (15.0) 87.9 (2.8)
China Acrylonitrile spot (US$/MT) 2,357 2,320 2,351 2,327 2,296 2,231 1,301 1,671 1.6 1.0 2.9 (22.2) (6.4)
China Caprolactam spot (US$/MT) 2,404 2,521 2,502 2,429 2,308 2,081 1,442 1,763 (4.6) 3.0 10.9 (18.2) (2.7)
China Ethyl Acetate spot (US$/MT) 1,546 1,624 1,581 1,478 1,397 1,511 874 817 (4.8) 7.0 (7.6) 7.0 (3.3)
China Fluorspar 97% (CNY/MT) 2,750 2,550 2,676 2,550 2,517 2,583 2,750 3,198 7.8 4.9 (2.6) (14.0) 4.2
China MDI spot (US$/MT)* 3,385 2,865 3,385 2,865 2,829 3,145 2,066 (3.3) 18.2 (10.0)
China Phenol spot (US$/ MT) 1,518 1,492 1,537 1,494 1,454 1,428 927 1,139 1.7 2.9 1.9 (18.6) (4.3)
China Soda Ash spot (US$/ MT) 589 477 553 429 378 275 195 23.4 28.9 37.2
China TDI spot (US$/ MT) 2,357 2,119 2,239 2,160 2,186 2,202 1,789 1,876 11.2 3.7 (0.7) (4.6) (3.1)
Malaysia/ Indonesia Palm Kernel Oil CIF
Rotterdam (US$/ MT) 2,040 1,500 1,820 1,409 1,336 1,480 815 590 36.0 29.2 (9.8) 38.3 (10.2)
Source: Bloomberg, China, Weekly average prices for month, quarter, and year, latest prices for week ended 29th Oct 2021 Note: * Monthly prices for latest and previous month

Earnings at Risk
Emkay Research is also available on www.emkayglobal.com and Bloomberg EMKAY<GO>. Please refer to the last page of the report on Restrictions on Distribution. In Singapore, this research report or research analyses may only be distributed to Institutional Investors, Expert Investors or Accredited Investors
as defined in the Securities and Futures Act, Chapter 289 of Singapore. 24
 …continued

Petrochemicals (Unit) Latest Prev. Oct-21 Sep-21 3Q2021 2Q2021 2020 2019 % WoW % MoM Oct-21 % QoQ 3Q2021 % YoY 2020 % YoY 2019
Benzene FOB Rotterdam (US$/ MT) 970 905 958 955 1,004 1,221 497 780 7.2 0.3 (17.8) (36.3) 12.2
Toluene FOB Rotterdam (US$/ MT) 890 780 869 768 776 775 441 703 14.1 13.2 0.1 (37.3) (1.8)
Naphtha CNF Japan (US$/ MT) 785 714 768 688 678 607 382 490 10.0 11.7 11.6 (22.0) (6.8)
Ethylene Spot CIF NWE (US$/ MT) 1,185 1,165 1,146 1,143 1,141 1,230 681 951 1.7 0.3 (7.2) (28.5) (0.5)
Ethylene FOB Korea Spot (US$/ MT) 1,155 1,090 1,123 1,043 987 1,011 728 818 6.0 7.7 (2.4) (10.9) (3.7)
Propylene Spot CIF NWE (US$/ MT) 1,396 1,400 1,351 1,420 1,440 1,355 789 933 (0.3) (4.9) 6.3 (15.4) (2.8)
Propylene FOB Korea Spot (US$/ MT) 1,035 990 1,032 985 982 1,045 796 913 4.5 4.8 (6.0) (12.8) 3.6
HDPE Injection Europe (US$/ MT) 2,065 2,103 2,063 2,120 2,197 2,280 1,293 1,428 (1.8) (2.7) (3.6) (9.4) (0.9)
LDPE Europe (US$/ MT) 2,567 2,619 2,558 2,640 2,697 2,740 1,379 1,481 (2.0) (3.1) (1.6) (6.9) (0.7)
LLDPE Butene Europe (US$/ MT) 2,146 2,191 2,144 2,209 2,294 2,395 1,274 1,388 (2.0) (2.9) (4.2) (8.2) (1.1)
PP Injection Europe (US$/ MT) 2,158 2,191 2,166 2,209 2,229 2,253 1,304 1,450 (1.5) (1.9) (1.0) (10.1) (2.0)

EDC CFR SEA (US$/ MT) 1,005 755 941 753 720 705 314 310 33.1 25.0 2.1 1.2 (11.0)
VCM CFR SEA (US$/ MT) 1,600 1,220 1,427 1,168 1,118 1,211 740 735 31.1 22.2 (7.7) 0.6 0.3
PVC CFR SEA (US$/ MT) 1,850 1,450 1,708 1,400 1,334 1,482 886 873 27.6 22.0 (10.0) 1.5 1.5
MEG Cfr South East Asia Price (US$/ MT) 730 735 815 698 687 646 471 553 (0.7) 16.8 6.4 (14.8) (4.4)
PTA CFR SEA (US$/ MT) 755 745 761 730 742 702 474 702 1.3 4.2 5.7 (32.5) (5.4)
OX China spot (US$/ MT) 1,093 974 1,031 968 945 897 663 828 12.2 6.5 5.4 (20.0) (6.6)
PX FOB Rotterdam (US$/ MT) 975 920 945 896 897 868 503 728 6.0 5.4 3.4 (30.8) (9.8)
ABS CFR SEA (US$/ MT) 2,450 2,450 2,438 2,440 2,394 2,534 1,524 1,425 0.0 (0.1) (5.5) 6.9 (2.9)
Phthalic Anhydride China Spot (US$/ MT) 1,025 905 969 884 852 823 721 859 13.3 9.6 3.5 (16.1) (2.1)
ACN CFR SEA (US$/ MT) 2,230 2,220 2,226 2,215 2,160 2,521 1,189 1,620 0.5 0.5 (14.3) (26.6) (2.5)
China Vinyl acetate monomer (CNY/ MT) 13,957 12,269 13,291 11,397 11,513 13,164 5,648 6,374 13.8 16.6 (12.5) (11.4) (4.5)
Source: Bloomberg, China, Weekly average prices for month, quarter, and year, latest prices for week ended 29th Oct 2021

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as defined in the Securities and Futures Act, Chapter 289 of Singapore. 25
…continued
Crude (Unit) Latest Prev. Oct-21 Sep-21 3Q2021 2Q2021 2020 2019 % WoW % MoM Oct-21 % QoQ 3Q2021 % YoY 2020 % YoY 2019
Brent (US$/ bbl) 83.9 77.7 83.3 74.4 73.7 68.7 42.3 61.6 8.1 11.9 7.3 (31.4) (3.9)
WTI (US$/ bbl) 83.6 74.1 81.1 71.3 71.5 66.2 39.6 56.1 12.7 13.8 8.0 (29.4) (1.6)
Dubai-Oman (US$/ bbl) 82.2 74.5 80.4 72.2 72.1 66.5 42.5 60.9 10.3 11.3 8.4 (30.2) (4.2)
Source: Bloomberg, China, Weekly average prices for month, quarter, and year, latest prices for week ended 299h Oct 2021

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as defined in the Securities and Futures Act, Chapter 289 of Singapore. 26
China Chemicals and Petrochemicals Prices

China Chemicals and Petrochemicals (Unit) Latest Prev. Oct-21 Sep-21 3Q2021 2Q2021 2020 2019 % WoW % MoM Oct-21 % QoQ 3Q2021 % YoY 2020 % YoY 2019
China Caustic Soda (Liquid 32%) (CNY/ MT) 804 674 1,483 890 743 339 517 754 19.3 66.6 119.1 (31.4) (20.8)
Compound Fert. (of Pot. Sulfate) (CNY/ MT) 3,206 3,200 3,212 3,204 3,150 1,705 2,348 2,546 0.2 0.2 84.7 (7.8) (0.7)
Methanol(CNY/ MT) 2,904 2,619 3,803 2,926 2,633 1,680 1,772 2,148 10.9 30.0 56.7 (17.5) (25.4)
Pesticide (Glyphosate, 95%) (CNY/ MT) 58,600 53,375 75,219 60,515 54,217 30,481 22,513 24,562 9.8 24.3 77.9 (8.3) (9.0)
Sulfuric Acid (98%) (CNY/ MT) 1,031 1,008 958 1,016 874 400 159 270 2.3 (5.7) 118.6 (41.0) (28.0)
Urea (Small Granule)(CNY/ MT) 2,650 2,591 3,075 2,695 2,738 1,709 1,778 1,937 2.3 14.1 60.2 (8.2) (6.2)
Benzene (Industrial Grade) (CNY/ MT) 8,681 7,917 8,358 8,146 7,931 5,226 3,952 5,077 9.6 2.6 51.8 (22.2) (21.0)
Butadiene Rubber (BR9000) (CNY/ MT) 13,170 13,624 14,445 13,376 13,873 7,919 9,174 11,387 (3.3) 8.0 75.2 (19.4) (11.3)
Source: Bloomberg, China, Weekly average prices for month, quarter, and year, latest prices for 20t, Oct 2021

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as defined in the Securities and Futures Act, Chapter 289 of Singapore. 27
Chemicals and Petrochemicals Spreads/ Margins

Spreads/ Margins (US$/ MT) Latest Prev. Oct-21 Sep-21 3Q2021 2Q2021 2020 2019 % WoW % MoM Oct-21 % QoQ 3Q2021 % YoY 2020 % YoY 2019
Caprolactam-Benzene 1,218 1,253 1,263 1,173 1,061 909 867 1,013 (2.8) 7.6 16.7 (14.4) (6.4)
Phenol/Acetone-Benz./Propylene 750 700 754 719 639 688 715 378 7.1 4.9 (7.2) 89.0 (26.4)
PP-Propylene 762 791 816 788 772 898 516 517 (3.7) 3.5 (14.0) (0.1) (0.7)
Ethylene-Naphtha 400 451 378 455 515 623 302 461 (11.4) (16.9) (17.2) (34.5) 9.2
PVC-EDC 845 695 767 648 618 777 574 562 21.6 18.5 (20.5) 2.1 9.3
PVC-VCM 250 230 281 233 219 272 147 138 8.7 20.9 (19.3) 6.9 10.0
Source: Bloomberg, China, Weekly average prices for month, quarter, and year, latest prices for week ended 29th Oct 2021

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as defined in the Securities and Futures Act, Chapter 289 of Singapore. 28
 Chemical, Petrochemicals, Crude Prices, Margins & Trends – Q3CY2021
Price Trend Margin Trend
Acetic Acid Down ~15% QoQ at ~US$ 989/ MT from ~US$ 1158/ MT Caprolactam-Benzene Up ~17% QoQ
Acetone Down ~15% QoQ at ~US$ 915/ MT from ~US$ 1,076/ MT Phenol/ Acetone-Benzene/ Propylene Down ~7% QoQ
Acrylonitrile Up ~3% QoQ at ~US$ 2,296/ MT from ~US$ 2,231/ MT PP-Propylene Down ~14% QoQ
Caprolactam Up ~11% QoQ at ~US$ 2,308/ MT from ~US$ 2,081/ MT Ethylene-Naphtha Down ~17% QoQ
Caustic Soda Up ~24% QoQ at ~US$ 411/ MT from ~US$ 331/ MT PVC-EDC Down ~21% QoQ
MDI Down ~10% QoQ at ~US$ 2,829/ MT from ~US$ 3,145/ MT PVC-VCM Down ~19% QoQ

Phenol Up ~2% QoQ at ~US$ 1,454/ MT from ~US$ 1,428/ MT

Soda Ash Up ~37% QoQ at ~US$ 378/ MT from ~US$ 275/ MT

TDI Down ~1% QoQ at ~US$ 2,186/ MT from ~US$ 2,202/ MT

Ethyl Acetate Down ~8% QoQ at ~US$ 1,397/ MT from ~US$ 1,511/ MT

Phthalic Anhydride Up ~4% QoQ at ~US$ 852/ MT from ~US$ 823/ MT

Brent and WTI Up ~7-8% QoQ

Dollar Index Up ~2% QoQ

USDINR Flat QoQ

Note: Q3 related to Q3CY 2021 (Jul-Sep qtr)

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as defined in the Securities and Futures Act, Chapter 289 of Singapore. 29
Anti-Dumping (ADD) Investigations/ Impositions
Type of
Countries Product Imposed/ In-Proc. Impacted Companies
Investigation
Sunset review
China PR PVC Flex Films Withdrawal of ADD recommended SRF
(Oct 21)
ADD Revoked
Russia and Korea RP Polytetrafluoroethylene (PTFE) ADD Revoked Gujarat Fluorochemicals, SRF
(Oct 21)
ADD Revoked European Union, Singapore and
Phenol ADD Revoked Deepak Nitrite, HOCL
(Oct 21) Korea RP
Imposition of
China PR Aceto Acetyl derivative - Arylides ADD imposed Laxmi Organics
ADD (Oct 2021)
Sunset review
China PR Tetrafluoroethane/ R-134a ADD recommended SRF
(Oct 21)
Final Finding (Sep
EU, Korea RP, Russia and Thailand Caprolactam ADD recommended GSFC
2021)
Final Finding (Sep Hydrofluorocarbon (HFC)
China PR ADD recommended SRF
2021) Component R-32
Initiation (Sep Investigation commenced for
China PR Polytetrafluoroethylene (PTFE) Gujarat Fluorochemical, SRF
2021) continuation of imposition of ADD
Final Finding (Sep
EU, China PR Rubber Chemicals PX-13 and MOR ADD imposed
2021)
Sunset review
Bangladesh and Thailand Hydrogen Peroxide Investigation commenced National Peroxide and Chlor-Alkali Players
(Sep 21)
Sunset review Investigation commenced for
Thailand Flexible Slabstock Polyol Manali Petrochemicals
(Sep 21) continuation of imposition of ADD
Sunset review
China PR, Japan and Korea RP Toluene Di-isocyanate (TDI) Investigation commenced GNFC
(Sep 21)
Sunset review
China PR, Japan and Korea RP Toluene Di-isocyanate (TDI) Investigation commenced GNFC
(Aug 2021)
Imposition of ADD Natural Mica based Pearl Industrial
China PR ADD imposed Sudarshan Chemical
(Aug 2021) Pigments
Sunset review
People's Republic of China Melamine ADD recommended Gujarat State Fertilizers & Chemicals
(Aug 2021)
Sunset Review
Russia/Korea RP Polytetrafluoroethylene ADD recommended Gujarat Fluorochemicals, SRF
(Aug 2021)
Imposition of ADD
China PR Aceto Acetyl ADD imposed Laxmi Organic
(Aug 2021)
Imposition of ADD
EU Phenol ADD continued Deepak Nitrite, HOCL
(Jul 2021)
Imposition of ADD
China PR, Korea RP, and USA Rubber Chemical PX-13 ADD imposed NOCIL
(Jul 2021)
Initiation (June
Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and USA Mono Ethylene Glycols or MEG Investigation commenced India Glycols, Reliance Industries
2021)
Imposition of ADD Natural Mica based Pearl Industrial
China PR ADD Imposed Sudarshan Chemical
(June 2021)
Source: DGTR, GoI Pigments excluding cosmetic grade

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as defined in the Securities and Futures Act, Chapter 289 of Singapore. 30
Anti-Dumping (ADD) Investigations/ Impositions

Type of Investigation Countries Product Imposed/ In-Proc. Impacted Companies

United Arab Emirates (UAE) and

Initiation (May 2021) Soda Ash Investigation commenced GHCL, Tata Chemicals, DCW
Russia

China PR, Indonesia, Korea RP, and

Imposition of ADD (May 2021) Phthalic Anhydride (PAN) ADD Imposed IG Petrochemicals, Thirumalai Chemicals
Thailand

ADD to the tune of diff.

China PR, European Union (EU),
Imposition of ADD (May 2021) Acrylonitrile Butadiene Rubber between reference price and Apcotex
Japan, and Russia
imported price

EU, Malaysia, Singapore, South

Sunset Review (Mar 2021) Normal Butanol - Andhra Petrochemicals
Africa, and USA

EU, Japan, Qatar, and United Arab

Initiation (Feb 2021) Melamine - GSFC
Emirates
European Union, Saudi Arabia,
Final Finding (Jan 2021) Chinese Taipei and United Arab Toluene Di-Isocyanate (TDI) ADD Imposed GNFC
Emirates
Final Finding (Jan 2021) Turkey Soda Ash Termination of ADD GHCL, Tata Chemical, DCW
Gujarat Fluorochemicals, TGV SRAAC, Gujarat
Final Finding (Jan 2021) China Methylene Chloride Continuation of ADD
Alkalies, Meghmani
Positive for GNFC, Negative for importers
Final Finding (Jan 2021) China Aniline ADD Imposed (users) such as NOCIL, Aarti Industries, Bodal,
Bhageria Chemicals
Final Finding (Jan 2021) Turkey Soda Ash ADD Imposed GHCL, Tata Chemical, DCW

Final Finding (Jan 2021) China PR, Saudi Arabia Dimethyl Formamide (DMF) ADD Imposed Balaji Amines

Sunset Review (Jan 2021) Russia Phthalic Anhydride ADD Imposed IG Petrochemicals, Thirumalai Chemicals

Sunset Review (Dec 2020) European Union, Singapore Phenol In-Process Deepak Nitrite, HOCL

Source: DGTR, GoI

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as defined in the Securities and Futures Act, Chapter 289 of Singapore. 31
Anti-Dumping (ADD) Investigations/ Impositions
Type of Investigation Countries Product Imposed/ In-Proc. Impacted Companies

Sunset Review (Dec 2020) South Africa Phenol ADD Imposed Deepak Nitrite, HOCL

Mid-Term Review (Dec 2020) Russia Polytetrafluoroethylene (PTFE) ADD Modified Gujarat Fluorochemicals

DCW Limited, Grasim, GACL, Meghmani

Initiation (Dec 2020) Japan, Iran, Qatar, Oman Caustic Soda In-Process Organics, TGV SRAAC, Chemfab Alkalies,
Andhra Sugars

Imposition of ADD (Nov 2020) China PR ‘Fluoroelstomer’ (FKM) ADD Imposed Gujarat Fluorochemicals

Sunset Review (Nov 2020) Korea RP Acrylonitrile Butadiene Rubber ADD Imposed Apcotex

Imposition of ADD (Nov 2020) China PR, Korea RP, USA Rubber Chemical PX-13 Prov. ADD imposed NOCIL
DCW Limited, Grasim, GACL, Meghmani
Sunset Review (Oct 2020) China PR, Korea RP Caustic Soda ADD Imposed Organics, TGV SRAAC, Chemfab Alkalies,
Andhra Sugars
Sunset Review (Oct 2020) China PR Nylon Tyre Cord Fabric’ (NTCF) ADD Imposed SRF

Imposition of ADD (Oct 2020) Korea, Saudi Arabia, Taiwan Acetone ADD Imposed Deepak Nitrite

Source: DGTR, GoI

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as defined in the Securities and Futures Act, Chapter 289 of Singapore. 32
 Emkay Rating Distribution

Ratings Expected Return within the next 12-18 months.

BUY Over 15%
HOLD Between -5% to 15%
SELL Below -5%

Completed Date: 08 Nov 2021 21:37:20 (SGT)

Dissemination Date: 08 Nov 2021 21:38:20 (SGT)

Sources for all charts and tables are Emkay Research unless otherwise specified.

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 ANALYST CERTIFICATION BY EMKAY GLOBAL FINANCIAL SERVICES LIMITED (EGFSL)
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as defined in the Securities and Futures Act, Chapter 289 of Singapore. 34
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