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Journal of Adolescent Health 72 (2023) 972e976

www.jahonline.org

Original article

Violent Injury as a Predictor of Subsequent Assault-Related


Emergency Department Visits Among Adolescents
Marci J. Fornari, M.D. a, *, Gia M. Badolato, M.P.H. b, Krithika Rao c, Monika K. Goyal, M.D., M.S.C.E. a,
Robert McCarter, Sc.D. d, and Katie A. Donnelly, M.D., M.P.H. a
a
Children’s National Hospital, Department of Pediatrics, George Washington University School of Medicine and Health Sciences, Washington, District of Columbia
b
Children’s National Hospital, Division of Emergency Medicine, Washington, District of Columbia
c
George Washington University School of Medicine and Health Sciences, Washington, District of Columbia
d
Children’s National Hospital, Division of Translational Science, George Washington University School of Medicine and Health Sciences (retired), Washington, District of
Columbia

Article history: Received July 19, 2022; Accepted December 22, 2022
Keywords: Adolescent violence; Recidivism; Assault injury; Hospital-based violence intervention program

A B S T R A C T
IMPLICATIONS AND
CONTRIBUTION
Purpose: To measure the risk of a subsequent assault-related emergency department (ED) visit in
assault injured adolescents as compared to those who initially presented for non-assault related
These findings support
injuries. that assault injury among
Methods: This was a historical cohort study of youth (ages 10e18 years) seen at two pediatric EDs adolescents is a re-
between 2016 and 2019. Participants were included if their visit had an International Classification occurring problem and
of Diseases-10 code for assaultive injury or accidental injury (motor vehicle collisions (MVC) and demonstrate the need for
sports injuries). We calculated the rate of a subsequent ED visit for an assault-related injury, and pediatric emergency de-
then used survival analysis to compare time to subsequent ED visit with an assault-related injury partments to implement
between study and comparison groups. violence prevention ini-
Results: A total of 6125 adolescents met inclusion criteria (Assault: n ¼ 2782, 45.4%; MVC: tiatives that target ado-
n ¼ 1834, 29.9%; Sports n ¼ 1509, 24.6%). The overall rate per 100 person years of a subsequent lescents at high-risk for
assault-related ED visit was 5.6 (n ¼ 344). Patients who initially presented with an assault-related future assaultive injury.
injury had an increased adjusted relative risk (aRR) of return for a subsequent ED visit for an
assault-related injury when compared to MVC patients (aRR 17.6 [95% CI: 9.6, 32.2]). Kaplan-Meier
time to event analysis found that patients in the assault injury group have a higher probability of a
subsequent ED visit for an assault-related injury compared to patients in the MVC injury group
(adjusted hazard ratio (aHR): 17.7 [95% CI: 9.67, 32.42]).
Discussion: Adolescents injured by assault are more likely to return to the ED for a subsequent
assault-related injury compared to adolescents who initially present with non-assault-related
injuries.
Ó 2023 Society for Adolescent Health and Medicine. All rights reserved.

Conflicts of interest: The authors have no conflict of interest to disclose. In 1996 the World Health Organization declared violence a
* Address correspondence to: Marci J. Fornari M.D., Children’s National Hos-
major public health issue [1]. More than two decades later, the
pital, Department of Pediatrics, George Washington University School of Medi-
cine and Health Sciences, 111 Michigan Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20010. American Public Health Association continues to recognize
E-mail address: MFornari@childrensnational.org (M.J. Fornari). violence as a leading cause of morbidity and mortality in the

1054-139X/Ó 2023 Society for Adolescent Health and Medicine. All rights reserved.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jadohealth.2022.12.014
M.J. Fornari et al. / Journal of Adolescent Health 72 (2023) 972e976 973

United States among those 1e45 years of age, and specifically record (EHR). Data collected on each patient included, age, sex,
among Black male youths between 10 and 25 years old [2]. Despite race, ethnicity, insurance type, date of initial ED visit, and dates of
the American Academy of Pediatrics emphasis on youth violence subsequent ED visits related to assault. Twenty percent of charts
prevention [3], assault among those aged 10e18 years accounts from each cohort were manually reviewed by the research team
for 15% of deaths per annum and remains the third leading cause to validate the accuracy of electronic data.
of death behind only unintentional injury and suicide [4]. Mor- Relative frequencies were used to describe and compare
tality from violent injury represents only a fraction of the total study groups. Poisson regression analyses were used to calculate
burden of violent injuries in adolescents. Assault accounts for the adjusted relative risks (aRR) of recidivism by type of injury,
more than 200,000 emergency department (ED) visits annually adjusting for age, sex, and insurance type [18]. Insurance type
among children ages 10-18, and costs more than $15 billion was used as a marker of socioeconomic status [19], which has
annually in medical, quality of life, and work-losses [4]. also been associated with experiencing assault-related injuries
Assault-related injury in youth is a recurring problem; as [20]. We did not adjust for race because almost all of the return
many as 40% of assault injured patients return to the ED for visits were in Black, non-Hispanic patients, and therefore we
repeat violent injuries within 5 years [5e7]. In the absence of were unable to perform this analysis due to lack of events in the
social worker intervention, about one-third of these reoccur comparator group. We also implemented time to event analysis,
within the first post-assault year [8,9]. Risk factors associated including unadjusted Kaplan-Meier and adjusted Cox Regression,
with repeat assault-related injury include male sex, Black race, using the aforementioned covariates, to estimate the hazard ratio
urban living, alcohol/drug use, weapon-carrying, and history of of return visits for an assault-related injury by type of initial visit.
involvement with the justice system [10e13]. Adjusted hazard ratios (aHR) with 95% CI were estimated to test
Improved understanding of the risk and risk profile of the hypothesis that recidivism for assault in the study group was
repeated assault-related injuries compared to repeat visits for more likely than recidivism of the same type in the comparison
non-violent injuries, including sports and motor vehicle related groups (lower confidence limit > 1). All statistical analyses were
injury, would help to inform more targeted violence prevention performed using Stata 16 (StataCorp, College Station, TX). This
initiatives within pediatric EDs. study was approved by our institutional review board.
Therefore, the objectives of this study are to: (1) measure the risk
of a subsequent assault-related ED visit in assault injured youth Results
as compared to those who initially presented for non-assault
related injuries; and (2) describe the socio-demographics of During the study period, 6125 adolescents presented to the ED
patients presenting to the ED for assault-related injury and for an initial visit. Among those, 3876 (63.3%) were seen for their
non-assault related injuries. initial visit at the main ED. Initial visits for an assault-related
injury were less likely to present to the main ED compared to an
Methods MVC-related injury (OR: 0.8 [95% CI: 0.7, 0.9]) and initial visits for a
sports-related injury were more likely to present to the main ED
This was a historical cohort study of youth (ages 10e18 years) compared to an MVC-related injury (OR: 1.4 [95% CI: 1.2, 1.6]).
seen at one of two pediatric EDs between January 1, 2016 and Of those visits, 45.4% were for assault, 29.9% were for MVC, and
December 31, 2019. The main ED is located within a children’s 24.6% were for sports-related injury. The majority of patients were
hospital and has an annual ED volume of 90,000 visits, including Black (76.5%), male (53.1%), between the ages of 10e14 (53.7%),
w19,000 adolescent visits. The satellite ED is located within a and publicly insured (72.6%) (Table 1).
community hospital in a historically under-served area, and has Within the study population, there are prominent differences
an annual volume of 37,000 visits, including w6,000 adolescent in age, sex, race/ethnicity, and payor status between study
visits. Participants were included if their initial ED visit had an groups. Adolescents presenting for an initial assault-related
International Classification of Diseases 10th Revision (ICD-10) injury were older (15e18 years old), more likely to identify as
code for assault-related injury [codes: X92-X99, Y00-Y04, Y08, Black, and use public insurance as compared to the adolescents
Y09, and T7] or a comparison group with accidental injury. We presenting for an initial MVC or sports-related injury (p < .0001)
defined accidental injury as an injury due to a motor vehicle (Table 1).
collision (MVC) [codes: V30-V79, V83-V87, and V89] or a sports- The overall rate per 100 person years of a subsequent assault-
related injury [codes: W21, Y93.22, Y92.310, Y92.32, Y92.838, related ED visit was 5.6 (n ¼ 344). This rate varied by initial di-
Y93.4,-Y93.6, Y93.7, W18.01], two clearly defined and common agnoses: 11.8 (n ¼ 329) for the assault injury group, 0.6 (n ¼ 11)
injuries among adolescents who present to the ED for care. MVC for the MVC injury group, and 0.3 (n ¼ 4) for the sports injury
injuries and sports injuries were chosen as comparison groups group. Patients who initially presented with an assault-related
with injury due to violence because they have a similar range in injury had an increased aRR of return for a subsequent ED visit
severity. In addition, all injuries requiring medical care, regardless for an assault-related injury when compared to MVC patients
of mechanism or intentionality, have the potential for negative (aRR 17.6 [95% CI: 9.6, 32.2]) and when compared to sports injury
psychological impact on adolescents [14e17]. Once patients were patients (aRR 36.5 [95% CI: 13.6, 98.1]) (Figure 1). There was no
placed into their initial cohorts, only subsequent ED visits for an difference in rate of subsequent ED visit for assault-related injury
assault-related injury were counted as a return visit. between the two comparison groups, sports-related injury and
Patients were excluded from the cohort if they were trans- MVC-related injury (aRR 0.50 [95% CI: 0.12,1.5]). Over 75% of the
ferred from an outside hospital as they would be more likely to subsequent visits were in our Black, non-Hispanic population,
seek care for subsequent injuries at a local hospital, were injured and no white, non-Hispanic patients returned.
due to child abuse or sexual assault, had a mechanism of injury In our Kaplan-Meier time to event analysis, we modeled the
that could not be clearly defined, or died at the index visit. We probability of returning to our EDs for an assault-related visit.
extracted patient and visit level data from the electronic health Patients were followed from their index visit until a subsequent
974 M.J. Fornari et al. / Journal of Adolescent Health 72 (2023) 972e976

Table 1
Select characteristics of study population at initial ED visit. p-value < .05 is considered statistical significance

Characteristic Study Pop (N, %) Assault (N,%) MVC (N, %) Sports Injury (N, %) Assault versus MVC p-valucs Assault versus Sports Injury p-valucs

Total 6125 (100%) 2782 (45.4%) 1834 (29.9%) 1509 (24.6%) .0001 .0001
Main ED 3876 (63.3%) 1634 (58.7%) 1174 (64.0%) 1068 (70.8%)
Satellite ED 2249 (36.7%) 1148 (41.3%) 660 (36.0%) 441 (29.2%)
Age (years) .0001 .0001
10e14 3286 (53.7%) 1104 (39.7%) 1179 (64.3%) 1003 (66.5%)
15e18 2839 (46.4%) 1678 (60.3%) 665 (35.7%) 506 (33%)
Sex .0001 .0001
Female 2873 (46.9%) 1328 (47.7%) 996 (54.3%) 549 (36.4%)
Male 3252 (53.1%) 1454 (52.3%) 838 (45.7%) 960 (63.6%)
Race/Ethnidty .0001 .0001
White. NH 299 (4.9%) 41 (1.5%) 110 (6.0%) 148 (9.8%)
Black, NH 4684 (76.5%) 2536 (84.7%) 1314 (71.7%) 1014 (67.2%)
Hispanic 887 (14.5%) 298 (10.7%) 319 (17.4%) 270 (17.9%)
Othera 255 (4.2%) 87 (3.1%) 91 (4.9%) 77 (5.1%)
Insurance .0001 .0001
Private 1057 (17.3%) 299 (10.8%) 359 (19.6%) 399 (26.4%)
Public 4444 (72.6%) 2184 (78.5%) 1251 (68.2%) 1009 (66.7%)
Self-Pay 624 (10.2%) 299 (10.8%) 224 (12.2%) 101 (6.7%)
a
Other: Asian, Multiple Races, Not Documented.

assault visit or the end of the study period. The median length of the ED for the same reason than adolescents who initially pre-
time in the study period was 730 days (IQR 320, 1,128). Based on sent for non-violent injuries. This is consistent with prior studies
Cox regression controlling for the aforementioned covariates, suggesting that previous episodes of violent injury are the
patients in the assault injury group have a higher probability of a strongest predictor of future violent injuries [21]. Adolescents
subsequent assault-related ED visit compared to patients in the who experience an assault injury, have a history of a prior assault
MVC injury group (aHR: 17.7 [95% CI: 9.67, 32.42]) or in the sports visit, or who have witnessed an assault are four times more likely
injury group (aHR: 36.0 [95% CI: 14.0, 97.0]). There was no dif- to experience another assault-related episode than adolescents
ference when we compared sports-related injury to MVC-related with no history of assault [22,23].
injury (aHR 0.49 [95% CI 0.16-1.54]) (Figure 2). It is well established that traumatic stressors, regardless of
intentionality, are risk factors for anger, behavioral problems,
mental illness, and substance use in youth [14]. In addition, all
Discussion injuries requiring medical care can cause long-term psycholog-
ical stress [15e17]. The findings of this study highlight the
This study found that adolescents who present to the ED with importance of the understanding the injury context for assessing
an initial assault-related injury have a higher risk of returning to the risk and consequences of ED recidivism for subsequent
injuries.
In our study population, adolescents who presented to the ED
with an initial assault-related injury were older than adolescents
who presented with sports or MVC-related injuries. As adoles-
cents age, they are less likely to seek care at a pediatric hospital
[24]. The accidently injured adolescents entered the study at a
younger age and were therefore more likely to continue to seek
care at a pediatric hospital for injuries during the study period,
and thus had more time and opportunity to return for subse-
quent injuries, nevertheless repeat injuries of the same type
were rare. Despite being older at initial presentation, the assault-
injured adolescents were significantly more likely to return for a
subsequent injury, especially an assault-related injury. Therefore,
our study likely underestimates the risk of a subsequent assault
injury visit in violently injured adolescents, as it is increasingly
likely that they sought care in, or were transported to, a general
ED rather than our pediatric ED.
Consistent with previous studies [23], adolescents presenting
for assault-related injuries were more likely to be Black, non-
Hispanic and have public medical insurance. This was particu-
larly evident when compared to the predominately white, pri-
vately insured adolescents who presented for an initial sports-
Figure 1. Rate and aRR of subsequent ED visits for assault-related injury among
related injury. This difference highlights the contrasts in oppor-
adolescents, by initial reason for ED visit. *adjusted for age, sex, and insurance tunity afforded these two groups as well as the consequences of
status. these resource disparities, a likely product of systemic racism
M.J. Fornari et al. / Journal of Adolescent Health 72 (2023) 972e976 975

Figure 2. Kaplan-Meier survival estimates of the probability of not returning for an assault-related ED visit among adolescents, by initial reason for ED visit. *adjusted
for age, sex, and insurance status.

[25]. Children from high socioeconomic status and white chil- intervention efforts within the pediatric ED setting to curtail the
dren are more likely to participate in sports than children from cycle of violence for adolescent survivors of assault.
lower socioeconomic status and Black and Hispanic children This study has some limitations that merit discussion. Pa-
[26,27]. Moreover, participation in sports is protective against tients were identified using ICD-10 codes, and often mechanism
drug use and physical fighting, improves mental health, in- of injury is not properly coded [12]. Thus, there are likely patients
creases educational achievement and helps athletes develop life in both the assault and comparison groups who were injured by
skills like teamwork, goal setting and self-control [28,29]. Our the stated mechanisms but were not included in this study due to
study supports prior studies which showed no substantial incorrect or missing ICD-10 codes. Also, our level one pediatric
difference in sex of patients who present to the ED for trauma center only accepts trauma activations for children
assault-related injuries [12]. There was a male predominance in younger than age 15. Therefore, severe assault or accidental in-
sports-related injuries, but this is likely because more males juries in children older than 14 would be less likely to be
participate in sports than females in the adolescent years [30]. captured in our data set, as they would likely be transported to a
While addressing issues of systemic racism on a macro-level general trauma center instead. Thus, it is likely that we are
is necessary to reduce rates of adolescent morbidity and mor- missing data from both index and subsequent assault-related
tality from violence, these changes will take significant time, visits as violence escalates in severity over time [6,34]. In the
effort, and money. This is because adolescents from lower so- future, we hope to collaborate with the local general trauma
cioeconomic status are more likely to be involved in violence due centers, so we gain a deeper understanding of what happens to
to residential segregation, which is associated with lack of adolescents who presents to a pediatric ED with an initial
institutional resources, less political power, inequities in policing assault-related injury, and how best we can support these pa-
and difficulties in controlling crime, lower quality schools, and tients in preventing subsequent injuries. Lastly, results of this
gang networks [31]. Adolescents would benefit from joint efforts study at linked tertiary care pediatric EDs in a large city, are
between governmental agencies, community organizations, and generalizable to other large cities, but may not be generalizable
healthcare systems to interrupt the cycle of violence. Specifically, to other geographic locations or populations.
our study findings support the need for micro-level point-of-care In conclusion, adolescents who present to the ED for an initial
interventions specifically for adolescents who present to the ED injury due to an assault are much more likely to return to the ED
for injuries related to an assault to reduce rates of re- for a similar repeat injury, specifically an assault-related injury,
victimization. ED providers have a unique opportunity to capi- than repeat injuries of the same type in adolescents who present
talize on a potentially reachable event that could decrease future for an initial accidental injury. On an individual level, providers in
morbidity and mortality for this young and vulnerable popula- pediatric EDs have a responsibility to assess how the injury
tion. Hospital-based violence intervention programs (HVIPs), for occurred, so that they can provide proper care and support to
example, have been shown to reduce repeat violent injury and to these patients who have a high risk of a subsequent violent
be cost effective [32,33]. Our research supports the need for injury. On a systems level, it is critical for pediatric EDs to put
expansion of these programs and other innovative violence processes in place to provide assault-injured adolescents with
976 M.J. Fornari et al. / Journal of Adolescent Health 72 (2023) 972e976

violence intervention resources. Many EDs have successfully [15] Sanders MB, Starr AJ, Frawley WH, et al. Posttraumatic stress Symptoms in
children Recovering from Minor Orthopaedic injury and Treatment.
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