Dealing with Numerical Information

Dealing with Numerical Information

Exercise Sheet Week 4 – Probability I

(20 points)

Deadline: Thursday, May 11th

Exercise 4.1 (4 points)

What is the sample space? For each of the following questions, define a sample space for the
associated random phenomenon. Explain your answers. Be sure to specify units if that is
appropriate (1 point each).
rain
itwill either rain.
or not

SCyes, no), truelaise

-
a) Will it rain tomorrow?

denin ei
Moder
usenen e
scolamanthavemannia
b) How many times do you tweet in a typical day?

c) What is the average age of your Facebook friends?

Hey
d) What are the majors for students at the UCF?
'S (SOU, Ess, COC,1S)

Exercise 4.2 (3 points)

What is wrong? In each of the following scenarios, there is something wrong. Describe what
is wrong and give a reason for your answer (1 point each).

a) If two events are mutually exclusive, we can multiply their probabilities to determine
the probability that they will both occur. -

wrong:if both are

mutually exclusive, they can't happen at the
same time
b) If the probability of A is 0.7 and the probability of B is 0.5, the probability of both A and
B happening is 1.2. no, itis 0,7x0,8 0,35
=

c) If the probability of A is 0.45, then the probability of the complement of A is -0.45.

(no, it is 0,55 (1-0,45
0,55)
=

Exercise Sheet Page 2 of 2

 Dealing with Numerical Information

Exercise 4.3 (5 points)

In Germany, 41% of individuals have blood type 0; 43% have blood type A; 11% have blood
type B; and 5% have blood type AB. Independent of the blood type, 85% of the German
population are rhesus positive, the rest is rhesus negative.

Calculate the following statistics by hand without using R. Provide the correct formula and
calculation path (you may, of course, use a calculator, etc.., especially for square roots).

a) Write down the sample space S of this example. (1 point) S(0:1)

b) Individuals of blood type 0 that are rhesus negative are universal donors. What is the
probability that a randomly chosen person is a universal donor? (2 points) 6,15%
c) Individuals with blood type B rhesus negative can receive transfusions from people with
blood type 0 rhesus negative or B rhesus negative. What is the probability that a donor has
one of the compatible blood types for a patient of blood type B rhesus negative? (2 points)
0,0615 0,0165 0,078
+
=

Exercise 4.4 (8 points) =7,8%

An exam includes a multiple-choice question with five possible answers, exactly one of which
is correct. Students who know the answer to the question always select the correct answer.
Otherwise, students select one answer at random from the five possible answers. Suppose
that for this multiple-choice question there is an 80% chance a student knows the answer.

Calculate the following statistics by hand without using R. Provide the correct formula and
calculation path (you may, of course, use a calculator, etc.., especially for square roots).

E
a) Write down the sample space S of possible events for students answering the multiple-
choice question. (1 point)
b) What is the probability to get the correct answer, given that the student doesn’t know the
see
answer? Illustrate the answer using a tree diagram (2 points)
belau
c) For a randomly chosen student, what is the probability the student got the correct
answer on this multiple-choice question? (2 points)

A) 80% B) 74%
⑧ C) 84% D) 76% E) 16%

d) What is the probability that a correctly answered question reflects that the student
knew the correct answer (and did not just get lucky)? (3 points)

Exercise Sheet Page 2 of 2

 exercise 4.3

Muss
osss80sCS Guns
Count0,41
exercise 4.4
eine
0,430,11 1

a) Strandan-correct, select-correct, vandem-wrong)

b)
0,8 0,2

knows answer doesn'tknow answer

1/ 0,2 0,8
correct
correct incorrect

0,04 4%
=> =

2) 018.1 0,8
01870188y
=

-> =7 84%
0,2.0,2 0,04
=

d) How
manychose
answers
percentof
the 84% who
of overall chose correctly,

actually
itkningly?
40 0,95
=

0,84
-> 95%