Environmental Earth Sciences (2022) 81:487

https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-022-10590-8

THEMATIC ISSUE

Deep learning models for large‑scale slope instability examination

in Western Uttarakhand, India
Vishnu Himanshu Ratnam Pandey1 · Ashutosh Kainthola1   · Vikram Sharma2 · Abhishek Srivastav1 · T. Jayal3 ·
T. N. Singh4

Received: 15 November 2021 / Accepted: 18 September 2022 / Published online: 3 October 2022
© The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2022

Abstract
Slope failures are avoidable accidents in most of the scenarios. The eventuality of a failure leads to loss of lives and destruc-
tion, especially in hilly areas. Investigation, analysis and prediction of slope failure is a reliable approach to avert such
mishaps. Hence, the present research work delves into the prediction of landslides and slope failures through numerical
simulation and a deep learning approach. Field attributes and laboratory-tested strength data from Lower Tons Valley, North-
ern India has been taken as a case study. Initially, a total of 185 slope models were simulated in a finite difference code by
varying four slope parameters, namely, slope angle, slope height, cohesion and angle of internal friction. These simulated
results were further divided into two parts, one part with 148 datasets for the training of models and other part consisting
of 37 datasets for testing of models. Two artificial neural network prediction models, along with a conventional multi-linear
regression model was developed and their accuracy was accessed. The developed neural network models superseded the
conventional model, in terms of performance and accuracy, as shown by statistical approaches R2 and mean squared error
values. Moreover, the neural network model with Adam optimizer achieved higher statistical accuracy than the one with
stochastic gradient descent optimizer. However, all these deep learning models demonstrate significant performance, and
can be used by geo-engineers for swift prediction of safety factors for excavated slopes in the study area.

Keywords  Slope stability · Artificial neural network · Multi-linear regression · Finite difference method · Factor of safety

Introduction

Early human societies settled along fertile river plains, which

This article is part of a Topical Collection in Environmental Earth
Sciences on “Geoenvironmental resources and risks: management
strategies and techniques for eco-sustainable development and
planning of fragile territories”, guest edited by Gioacchino
Francesco Andriani, Domenico Calcaterra, Juan Carlos Mora
Chaparro, Ratan Das, Lidia Loiotine, Michael Tarullo.
* Ashutosh Kainthola
ashu.py@zohomail.in
1
Department of Geology, Banaras Hindu University,
Varanasi, Uttar Pradesh, India
2
Department of Geography, Banaras Hindu University,
Varanasi, Uttar Pradesh, India
3
State Environment Conservation and Climate Change
Directorate, Dehradun, Uttarakhand, India
4
Department of Earth Sciences, IIT Bombay, Mumbai,
Maharashtra, India
provided them with water and agricultural produce (Harari
2014). However, the rapid rise in human population led to a
crisis of habitable space and eventually it led to the move-
ment of people towards rugged mountainous terrain. Steep
hill slopes are rapt with instability issues, ranging from ero-
sion to slope failures (Shariati and Fereidooni 2021). These
instances are further aggravated due to improper settlement
and unplanned excavations. Each year slope failures claim
several lives and cause huge economic damages (Cui et al.
2014). Slope failures and landslide incidents could be miti-
gated or avoided with investigation, stability assessment,
stabilization and regular monitoring. Estimation of slope
instability depends on rock/soil type, discontinuity distri-
bution, topography, hydrological environment and stress
regime (Hoang and Pham 2016; Qi and Tang 2018). The
likelihood of failure is usually measured on the basis of
the strength parameters of the slope material (Choobbasti

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et al. 2009; Qiu et al. 2017). These strength parameters are
assessed through laboratory testing of the representative
samples and field investigation. The resulting data is either
analysed mathematically or fed into sophisticated numerical
simulation tools for deciphering the factor of safety. In most
instances in the Himalayan terrain, the slope failure zones
are not localized but extend over several kilometres and car-
rying out simulation over the long stretch can be cumber-
some. Forecast of existing and future instability, owing to
the change in ground conditions adds more variability to the
analysis. Therefore, while doing the stability analysis spe-
cial consideration is needed to include the changes in slope
geometry and variable geotechnical dimensions.
Conventional stability assessment methods employ the
approximation of driving and resisting forces at a prede-
fined surface of failure to ascertain the overall stability of
the slope (Zheng et al. 2006; Raghuvanshi 2019). On the
contrary, the numerical simulation uses the discretization
and solution of the partial derivatives of the problem to yield
these results (Singh et al. 2008; Li et al. 2009). Numerical
tools possess an advantage over conventional methods as
they can calculate the deformation and no prior assumption
of failure surface is entailed (Zou et al. 1995; Tiwari et al.
2020; Hazari et al. 2021). However, numerical simulation
tools are expensive and require an admirable amount of
sophisticated computing to function efficiently (Zheng et al.
2014). Furthermore, the input parameters require exhaustive
testing of the geological material, which is also expensive.
In the recent past, sophisticated artificial intelligence (AI)
tools have become quire prevalent for carrying out classi-
fication and prediction for large datasets (Taha et al. 2018;
Benbouras et al. 2019; Lawal and Kwon 2020). Machine
learning is one such facet of AI, where models after being
trained adequately, can predict the desired output to meet
high accuracy (Suman et al. 2016; Singaravel et al. 2018;
Feng et al. 2018). Use of neural network, decision trees
and support vector machines are among the most popular
tools for prediction (Ma et al. 2017; Pham et al. 2018; Dou
et al. 2019). Anitescu et al. (2019) explored the capabilities
of ANN, in line with the collocation method to frame an
entirely mesh-free technique for evaluating partial deriva-
tives and examining boundary conditions. The developed
neural network turned out to be robust and swift PDEs
approximation, and showed good results for enumerating
inverse acoustic problems. Later, Samaniego et al. (2020)
devised a deep neural network model to find the solutions to
partial differential equation, satisfying boundary value con-
ditions and further effectively applied them to problems of
computational mechanics. The biggest advantage in favour
of ML tools is they are free of cost and several libraries
exists for their usage (Erickson et al. 2017; Stančin and Jovic
2019; Khurma et al. 2020).
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Environmental Earth Sciences (2022) 81:487
Therefore, in the present research work an attempt has
been made to predict the stability of slope through artifi-
cial neural networks (ANNs), together with a conventional
multiple linear regression (MLR) model. The input data
viz., slope height, slope angle, angle of internal friction,
and cohesion were evaluated from the field visit and subse-
quent laboratory testing of the soil mass. These geometric
and strength parameters were used to numerically evalu-
ate the factor of safety (FoS). Some of the test results have
already been published (Kainthola et al. 2021). For the pre-
sent work, a total of new 185 slope models were simulated
using a finite difference code. Afterwards, the variables:
slope height, slope angle, cohesion, angle of internal fric-
tion and factor of safety were analyzed  for correlation and
prediction through MLR and neural network algorithms.
All the developed machine learning models were intuitively
combined and correlated to support the study. The multiple
linear regression model is an advanced form of simple linear
regression, which relates several independent parameters to
a dependent parameter (Eberly 2007). Moreover, the ANNs
are a kind of deep learning prediction models capable of
identifying the intrinsic pattern in the training datasets to
predict the outputs.
Previous works
Computers are arguably the most ingenious creation of
human mind and have played a dominant role in the techni-
cal advancement of the present world. The successful execu-
tion of the first computer program, evoked people’s curiosity
for a time when machines will become self-aware and auto-
driven (Turing 2009; Aiello 2016). However, after that, it
took approximately a century to develop the idea of artifi-
cial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) methods.
The recent growth of these techniques can be attributed to
inexpensive and swifter computing accessories with higher
storage and processing capabilities. Furthermore, copious
amounts of data generated from daily human activities are
pumped as fuel in this industry. The major encouragement
for the advancement of these techniques came from indus-
tries, which were keenly interested towards insightful data-
driven decision models for their better investment.
Machine learning tools such as ANN, support vector and
random forest are getting wide acceptance throughout the
scientific community in different areas of interest. It is due to
its ability to solve complex problems in intelligible, swifter
and reasonable manner with higher accuracy in its own
learning experiences. Geotechnical engineers and research-
ers are already using machine learning techniques to deepen
their understanding of slope stability, underground excava-
tion and other civil infrastructure works. Factor of safety
Environmental Earth Sciences (2022) 81:487 Page 3 of 18  487
(FoS) is a term used to define the stability condition of a
slope. FoS is the ratio of the shear strength to shear stress
on a slope. In turn, the shear strength of the material relies
on the cohesion and angle of internal friction of the slope
material. Furthermore, the slope angle and height bear a
direct relationship to the ensuing shear strength parameters.
To examine the stability condition of slopes through tradi-
tional methods; workers and practitioners have to scrupu-
lously determine slope geometry, cohesion, angle of internal
friction, young’s modulus, unit weight, and complex geology
of the groundmass. ANN can use the existing knowledge to
make predictions; and not rely on fresh tests and simulation.
Previously, workers have discerned the FoS of slopes
using ANN and exemplified the comparison of predicted
outcomes with the results from other available techniques
(Lu and Rosenbaum 2003; Pradhan and Lee 2009; Ray
et al. 2020). Chakraborty and Goswami (2017) worked on
the comparative slope failure assessment between ANN and
multi-linear regression approaches, and both methods have
been discussed in great detail. Sakellariou and Ferentinou
(2005) presented an intelligent ANN model for the deter-
mination of FoS and also dwells into the relative contribu-
tion of input parameters for the enumeration of the safety
factor. A dump slope stability prediction of coal open pit
mines using artificial neural networks have been pictured
into space by Rahul et al. (2015). A sophisticated and robust
machine learning technique called neuro-fuzzy system eased
the prediction of Young’s modulus of rocks by feeding the
basic physico-mechanical inputs such as point load, density,
and water absorption (Cüneyt Aydin et al. 2006; Singh et al.
2012; Armaghani et al. 2015). These workers have presented
excellent and incisive machine learning techniques to deal
with a particular problem in their research area, however,
they have not undertaken all the possible predictor variables
which may alter the results significantly. Moreover, there is
a need for a universal deep learning model to comply with
all kinds of geotechnical problems in every environmental
condition.
Methodology
The manuscript details its findings on geotechnical investi-
gation and deep learning approaches on the road cut slopes
along the Tiuni to Kalsi via Koti motorway. The study area
belongs to Lower Tons valley, and is a part of Garhwal
Himalayan division (Fig. 1). Damta and Jaunsar Groups
cover the major section of the study area, and some parts
are composed of Tejam, Sirmur and Siwalik Groups (Auden
1934; Valdiya 1980). The Himalaya is known for its rugged
topographic terrain and complex geological setup, further
aggravated by previous and ongoing tectonic plate motion
(Srivastav et al. 2021). The research builds its foundation
on preliminary field investigation, samples collection,
sophisticated laboratory testing and finite difference stabil-
ity assessment. Several slope failure events were recorded
in the initial survey of the study area and numerous critical
slopes were studied (Fig. 2). A total of 185 slope geometry
parameters were ascribed in field and GIS investigation; and
shear strength parameters were obtained from the laboratory
testing. These input parameters were fed into the finite dif-
ference tool to establish the factor of safety of every slope.
Afterwards, the multi-linear regression (MLR) analysis and
artificial neural network (ANN) techniques were imple-
mented on these inputs (Slope geometry and shear strength
properties) and output (Factor of Safety) dataset generated
via finite difference technique. Both of these illustrative
machine learning tools were supported by several open-
source libraries, available on R and Python platforms.
Data distribution
The choice of parameters for the slope instability analysis
is contingent upon the employed technique. Slope’s shear-
parameters and geometry have been widely used to under-
stand landslide dynamics (Zhang and Xiao 2019; Bui et al.
2020; Tiwari et al. 2020; Kainthola et al. 2021; Chen et al.
2021a, b). The effect of the distribution of drained shear-
strength on failure has also been detailed by Stark et al.
(2005). The limit-equilibrium stability analysis has revealed
a strong impact of cohesion, angle of internal friction, and
slope’s geometry on the size of failed zone and dynamics
(Frattini and Crosta 2013). Soil cohesion, weighted as the
most prominent contributor in factor of safety, among the
other applied parameters like height, slope, angle of inter-
nal friction, and density, etc. (Gelisli et al. 2015). A hybrid
machine learning safety factor prediction model was devel-
oped by Verma et al. (2016), which considered cohesion,
angle of internal friction, slope angle, and pore water pres-
sure. Guo et al. (2021), through extended—discontinuous
deformation analysis demonstrated the reduction in cohe-
sion being the prime cause of mass-movement initiation at
Fukuchi-machi, Japan. Moreover, several published works
on susceptibility models observed the dominance of slope
angle, over several other landslide conditioning factors in
failure probability (Pradhan and Lee 2010; Pradhan 2011;
Abraham et al. 2021; Sardooi et al. 2021). Rukhaiyar et al.
(2018), emphasized the role of cohesion, internal friction
angle, slope angle, slope height in FOS prediction model.
Also, the size of the mass-movement is mostly controlled
by the initial slope angle and the shear values (Chen et al.
2016). As the algorithms calculates the safety factors using
Mohr–Coulomb failure criteria, a major emphasis of the pre-
diction models in the present analysis is on geometry and
shear strength of slope mass (Lollino and Andriani 2017).
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Page 4 of 18
Fig. 1  Geological and tectonic setup of the study area (after Thakur and Rawat 1992)
The ingredients of FoS like the angle of internal friction and
cohesion are important to resist forces, while the height and
slope angle will influence the skidding forces.
Therefore, the four most obvious and critical parameters
viz., slope height, slope angle, cohesion and angle of internal
friction have been taken for the statistical and deep learning
assessment of slope failure. Cohesion and angle of internal
friction were discerned in the laboratory through direct shear
testing, while the geometrical factors were adopted based on
the topography of the study area. The cohesion and angle
of internal friction are the intrinsic properties of soil mass,
whereas the driving force (W*sinθ) are the significant attrib-
utes of slope height and slope angle (Eq. 1) (Fig. 3).
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Environmental Earth Sciences (2022) 81:487
( )
ResistingForce (W ∗ cos𝜃 ∗ 𝜇) + cA
FOS = = (1)
DrivingForce W ∗ sin𝜃
where W is the weight of the sliding block, θ is the slope
angle, μ is the coefficient of friction, c is the cohesion and A
is the area occupied by the sliding block.
The selection of the four parameters stems from their
pertinence and ease of applicability. Any change in either
slope geometry or shear strength can swiftly be incorpo-
rated into the model. A preliminary geo-statistical analy-
sis of each geotechnical parameters involved in the pre-
sent work shed light on their distribution and correlation
(Fig. 4). The correlation coefficient (r) between each of
these properties helps to develop a mathematical associa-
tion of one parameter to other parameters (Asuero et al.
2006). Slope height has a correlation coefficient of − 0.14,
Environmental Earth Sciences (2022) 81:487 Page 5 of 18  487

Fig. 2  Evidences of slope failure in the study area

Fig. 3  Critical factors affecting slope failure

0.18 and 0.04 with slope angle, cohesion, and angle of

internal friction, respectively. Slope angle shows a weak
correlation coefficient of 0.04 and 0.03 with cohesion and
angle of internal friction, respectively. Moreover, cohe-
sion and angle of internal friction have a weak negative
r value of 0.28. These weak correlations among differ-
ent parameters show that the data is unbiased for present Fig. 4  Distribution of different slope parameters and their correlation

13
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Page 6 of 18
research work; and the developed ANN and MLR models
will have a wider applicability in the future (Alavi and
Gandomi 2011). Furthermore, the statistical illustration
of these properties hastens the workers’ conception and
understanding of their distribution pattern. Beside all
these, data sanity can be quickly reinforced with the help
of a statistical examination of these geotechnical proper-
ties (Rezania et al. 2008).
Finite difference analysis
Existing literature is rich in numerical techniques that
could be utilized to examine slope instability (Igwe et al.
2014; Zhang et al. 2021). Several advanced simulations
approaches viz. Finite Element Method (FEM), Cracking
Particle Method (CPM), Discrete Element Method (DEM),
FDM, dual-horizon peridynamics (DH-PD), Bound-
ary Element Method, Discrete Fracture Network, and
extended-FEM have been devised to investigate the slope
failures (Andriani and Parise 2015; Cao et al. 2021). In
CPM, failure (crack) is simulated as the intensification of
discontinuities at each node/particle, configured randomly
in the body (Rabczuk et al. 2007). Rabczuk et al. (2010)
had demonstrated that a particle is fragmented once the
desired norms are satisfied and supplant crack segment in
the body enabling its failure mechanism simulation under
static or dynamic conditions. Moreover, Rabczuk and
Belytschko (2004) introduced the Element free Galerkin
method–Particle for modelling crack development using
mesh-free particle technique. Furthermore, with promis-
ing outcomes in 2D and great potential to work in 3D,
the method shows connecting fractures will replicate the
continuous rupture in the model (Rabczuk and Belytschko
2007). Additionally, the dual-horizon principle empowers
the earlier Peridynamics technique to treat the problems of
altering horizon sizes and ghost forces in solid mechanics
(Ren et al. 2016). Further, the method was applied effec-
tively to simulate the crack path pattern and comprehend
multiple material problems (Ren et al. 2017). However, in
the present work, the power of the finite difference method
(FDM) was preferred over more sophisticated-powerful
techniques due to its availability as an open-source tool
(FLAC/Slope) and no additional requirement of sophisti-
cated hardware accessories.
Initial stability assessment was conducted in a finite
difference code to ascertain the factor of safety. A total of
185 slope models with varying shear strength parameters
and geometrical attributes were developed. Based on the
sieve analysis, approximately 70% of grain-sizes are greater
than 2 mm for the presently studied slopes (Kainthola et al.
2021). Thus, the coarse-grained particles are the major con-
stituents of the slope-forming materials with poor sorting.
Further, the laboratory works determined the mean values
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Environmental Earth Sciences (2022) 81:487
of liquid and plastic limits as 23.3 and 19.5. Kainthola et al.
(2021), further contribute other physico-mechanical attrib-
utes to the present work, such as unit weight (2200 ± 150 kg/
m3), Poisson’s ratio (0.29 ± 0.02) and Young’s modulus
(1000 ± 300 MPa). However, in the present work, only mean
values of these physico-mechanical parameters were consid-
ered in numerical simulation for all 185 slopes. The open-
source program FLAC/Slope was employed for the finite
difference method (FDM) calculations (Fig. 5). FDM uses
equations of motion to derive new velocities and displace-
ments from stresses and forces. Then, strain rates are derived
from velocities, and new stresses are derived from strain
rates (Beyabanaki 2020).
To simulate the slope stability in the software, the “Sim-
ple form” has been used to get the desired geometry param-
eters (rise, slope, left, right and depth), which were assigned
as per field observations (Fig. 5). As the data for studied
slopes was collected in summer season (drained condition),
the present simulation didn’t consider wet density. Only the
slope face and upper slope portions have been ascribed free
boundaries, the rest of the boundaries have been bound in
both vertical and horizontal direction. Coarse-mesh den-
sity has been applied uniformly with an automatic meshing
scheme, conforming to material boundaries. Eventually, the
model has been solved for FoS under Mohr–Coulomb failure
(Handin 1969) criteria (including cohesion and internal fric-
tion angle) following the shear strength reduction technique.
Finally, one will have the safety factor for the modelled slope
along with distribution of maximum shear-strain rate in the
slope body.
An intensive finite difference investigation for each 185
slope models in FLAC/Slope ascribed their safety factor
(FoS). These enumerated safety factors of slopes along
with their respective slope attributes (input parameters)
engendered a handsome amount of data for generation
of predictive models (MLR and ANN). As expected, the
outcome of FDM demonstrates that FoS decreases as
the slope angle and slope height increases, whereas FoS
increases with increment in cohesion and angle of internal
friction of soil mass (Fig. 6). Moreover, the simulated FoS
values of these studied slopes were matched and calibrated
with the ground conditions to validate the FLAC/Slope’s
outcomes. In 49 cases the FDM depicted critical condi-
tions, however, in field 127 slopes had shown no visible
signatures of failure. In addition, on cross validation of
these FoS values and ground reality, only 175 outcomes
were true in both the situations and remaining 10 cases
differ. Therefore, the FDM analysis was true in 94.59%
cases out of 185 total slopes analysed. The further scru-
pulous analysis of this ground truth data and FoS values
indicates that only in scenarios, where 1 < FoS < 1.04 had
the anomalous ground condition. Additionally, the field
investigation and numerical examination of these finite
Environmental Earth Sciences (2022) 81:487 Page 7 of 18  487

Fig. 5  A representation of finite difference calculation through FLAC/Slope software (cohesion: 69626.51 Pa, angle of internal friction: 33.9°
and mass-density: 2200 kg/m3)

slopes indicate that the majority of the instabilities were
of shallow failure types, and in some cases deep-seated
failures were involved.
Finite difference tool uses Mohr–Coulomb failure cri-
terion to assess the stability of slope masses in the study
region. The Mohr–Coulomb failure criteria ascertain the
maximum shear stress ( 𝜏max ) on the slip surface using
Eq.  (2) (Labuz and Zang 2012). Moreover, the shear
strength reduction (SSR) techniques were employed in the
FLAC/Slope software program to enumerate the factor of

Fig. 6  Influence on FoS of a cohesion and angle of internal friction, b slope angle and slope height

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Table 1  Input geotechnical Parameters Slope angle (°) Slope height (m) Cohesion (Pa) Angle of inter- FoS
parameters for slope stability in nal friction (°)
FLAC/Slope (FDM analysis)
software and its output of 185 Minimum 25.00 20.00 10,787.00 0.26 0.12
locations
25th percentile 40.00 50.00 30,877.99 32.50 0.98
50th percentile 45.00 66.00 50,000.00 37.70 1.21
75th percentile 50.00 90.00 66,684.50 42.90 1.48
Maximum 80.00 200.00 124,543.20 52.70 2.45
Mean 45.70 76.39 50,609.07 36.28 1.25
Standard deviation 9.55 35.26 27,304.58 9.04 0.42

Table 2  Variance inflation factor for each independent parameter where ao, a1, a2, a3, a4 are coefficients of independent (input)
ascribed through MLR variables and ε is the residual error of the MLR prediction
Independent vari- Height Slope angle Cohesion Friction angle model.
able The significance of accommodating any predictor (regres-
sor) in multiple linear regression models should be exam-
VIF value 1.049 1.008 1.140 1.109
ined before actually employing them. One such aspect of
assessing the predictors is multicollinearity, which examines
the effect of one variable onto another which may affect
safety (Eqs. 3, 4) (Labuz and Zang 2012; Bharati et al. the stability. A higher multicollinearity in the predictors
2021). A statistical summary of finite difference calcula- of any model poses a threat to soundness and reliability of
tion can be visualized in Table 1. that model. Variance inflation factor (VIF) is used to assess
multicollinearity in the multiple linear regression analysis
𝜏max = c + 𝜎n tan𝜑 (2) (Eq. 6). Outcomes of VIF for each independent variable
adopted in the present study for the MLR model is close to
c
ctrial = (3) 1; and evades probability of high multicollinearity among
FoStrial the predictors, moreover favours the orthogonality among
[ ] the predictors (Table 2) (Daoud 2017).
𝜑
𝜑trial = tan−1 (4) 1
FoStrial VIF = (6)
1 − R2i
where c is the cohesion, φ is the internal friction angle, ctrial
is the FoStrial (SSR) times reduced cohesion, and φtrial is the where R2i is the regression of ith regressor on the rest other
FoStrial (SSR) times reduced angle of internal friction. predictors.

Multiple linear regression model Artificial neural network (ANN) model

The study adopts the traditional multiple linear regres-
sion (MLR) algorithm to generate a model or function to
predict FoS of hill slopes in the research area. MLR is a
general extension of linear regression analysis by incorpo-
ration of more than one independent variable. The model
limns FoS based on input parameters like cohesion (c),
angle of internal friction (f), slope height (h), and slope
angle (θ) (Eq. 5). The MLR model tries to formulate a
model (mathematical hyperplane) as a function of inde-
pendent variables (input), to predict the dependent vari-
able (output).
FOSMLR = a0 + a1 ∗ c + a2 ∗ f + a3 ∗ 𝜃 + a4 ∗ h + 𝜀
Artificial neural network (ANN) is a computational tech-
nique that works similar to neurons present in a human brain
(Wang 2003; Lau et al. 2019). It is a subset of machine learn-
ing, which itself is a further subset of Artificial Intelligence
(Bini 2018). Analogous to the human brain, it predicts the
outcomes based on its previous training datasets or past
experiences. Here, the experience of ANN can be correlated
to the number of training datasets, the greater the amount
of training datasets engender higher accuracy (Jain and
Kumar 2007). The learning techniques can be supervised
or unsupervised (Japkowicz 2001). If the training dataset
is accompanied by a given outcome, it will be supervised
(5) learning otherwise unsupervised learning (Fig. 7a) (Nam-
dev et al. 2015). The supervised technique is useful for the
prediction and classification, whereas unsupervised learning

13
Environmental Earth Sciences (2022) 81:487 Page 9 of 18  487
Fig. 7  Workflow of a machine learning model and b traditional pro-
gramming (modified after Sarkar et al. 2018)
approaches aids in clustering. In contrast to machine learn-
ing paradigms, the traditional programming algorithms were
based on a predefined set of rules/ codes (Fig. 7b).
The algorithms of ANN empower a model to assign
appropriate weights for each input variable and iterate
epoch-times to minimize the cost function (loss or error)
(Siddique et al. 2018). The ANN has primarily 3-layers
namely, input layer, hidden layer, and output layer (Khandel-
wal and Singh 2009). The hidden layer is the place where all
the computational jobs are accomplished (Boob et al. 2022).
Hidden layers may contain single or multiple layers and each
layer consists of one or more nodes. These layers are decided
on hit and trial basis or sometimes help of a few optimiza-
tion algorithms are incorporated for the best outcomes and
there is no specific set of rules defined for it (Ramakrishnan
et al. 2013).
In the present study, two ANN models have been pro-
grammed on the Python platform with the help of listed
open-source libraries such as pandas, NumPy, Keras, scikit
learn and matplotlib, etc. The dataset is imported into the
model through pandas, after which the input and output vari-
ables are demarcated for further processing via NumPy. The
dataset is again divided into training and testing data using
train_test_split operation of sklearn.model_selection; 80%
data are used as training and remaining 20% as testing out
of total of 185 datasets. The input variables were normalized
using StandardScaler operation of scikit-learn preprocessing
algorithm based on Eq. (7) (Ruiz et al. 2020).
Fig. 8  The structure of ANN model developed for the present study
(n represents node with subscripts showing its number for given hid-
den layers) (after Khandelwal and Singh 2009)
(x − u)
z= (7)
s
where z is the normalized value of a random input variable
x; u and s are the mean and standard deviation of the input
training data, respectively.
Both the neural network models were structured, entail-
ing four input parameters to predict an output. The inherent
pattern in the variables such as slope height, slope angle,
cohesion, and angle of internal friction and their contribu-
tion in FoS, were recognised by both designed ANN models.
The present ANN models incorporate two hidden layers of
32 nodes each. The Gaussian Error Linear Unit (GELU) is
implemented in both the hidden layers of each model (Eq. 8)
(Hendrycks and Gimpel 2016).
� � ��
x
GELU(x) = 0.5x 1 + erf √ (8)
2
However, one neural network model was compiled using
Adam optimizer, while the other uses SGD optimizer. In both
the models, the loss is enumerated through mean_squared_
error (MSE) function (Eq. 9) (Arafat et al. 2020). Finally,
with a batch size of 5 and 100 epochs, two ANN models
have been structured (Eq. 10) (Fig. 8) (Dar and Shah 2021;
Chi et al. 2021). Moreover, both the structured networks are
tested based on their outcomes and finite difference results.
Eventually, the comparison is made on the basis coefficient
of determination achieved by both the designed models.
N
1 ∑( )2
MSE = t − tdi (9)
n i=1 i
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Page 10 of 18 Environmental Earth Sciences (2022) 81:487

where ti is the real value (FDM outcomes) and tdi is the the small steps will aid the convergence. Hence, the con-
predicted value of ANN model. vergence can be achieved without over-steeping (in case of
(m ) big learning rates), furthermore without compromising the
∑ speed (as in case of small learning rates). In Adam, one can
FoSANN = h xi wij + bi (10)
i=1
comprehend the mathematics of updating each parameter/
weight (wj) through a combination of Eqs. (12–15) (Bushaev
where h is a nonlinear function (GELU in the present mod- 2018; Kathuria 2018). To dodge the complexity in writing
els), xi is the input nodes or previous layers nodes, wij is the the equation, w is used instead of wj in the below equations.
assigned weight for the ith input variables, and bj is bias in
(12)
( )
each hidden layer. vt = 𝛽1 ∗ vt−1 − 1 − 𝛽1 ∗ gt
The optimization algorithms serve in minimizing any
mathematical function by identifying the optimal param- st = 𝛽2 ∗ st−1 − 1 − 𝛽2 ∗ g2t (13)
( )
eters (Zhang 2018). Earlier workers have illustrated several
optimizers that are capable of minimizing the cost/loss func- v
tion (mathematical function) of machine learning models. Δwt = −𝜂 √ t ∗ gt (14)
As discussed, the two ANN models were devised with same st + 𝜖
structure, however, with different optimizers, i.e., Adam and
Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD). Both are commonly wt+1 = wt + Δwt (15)
used optimizer techniques in different machine learning
models (Saha et al. 2021). The SGD is more viable in mini- where η signifies “initial learning rate”, vt stands for “exponen-
mizing the loss functions than its earlier versions of gradient tial average of gradients along wj”, ­gt denotes the “gradient at
descent. The SGD does not consider whole parameters at time t along wj”, and st implies the “exponential average of the
each iteration step in updating the parameters, instead takes square of gradients along wj”. Besides, β1, and β2 are the hyper-
a single or small subset of the parameters as compared to parameters with common numerical values of 0.9 and 0.99,
batch gradient descent (BGD). So, SGD out-performs BGD respectively. Meanwhile, the ε generally takes a value ­10−10.
in terms of speed, besides converges at global minima earn-
ing a better accuracy (Hansen 2019; Gupta et al. 2021).
Eq. (11), mathematically elucidate the rule of parameter (θ) Results and discussion
update in case of stochastic gradient descent optimization
(Hansen 2019). The tested geotechnical parameters along with different
slope geometry for the study area were incorporated into
𝜃 = 𝜃 − 𝜂 ∗ Δ𝜃 J(𝜃;x, y) (11) the finite difference model. The FDM facilitates a factor
of safety for each 185 slope models, through mathematical
where the symbols η, Δ, J, x, and y represent learning
equations inbuilt in the FLAC/ Slope software program. The
rate, gradient, cost function, training example and label,
slope models with FoS greater than 1 were considered sta-
respectively.
ble, while those less than 1 were deemed unstable. The effect
Adam embodies properties of momentum and adaptive
of each parameter incorporated in the study through FDM
learning rates (ALR) to update the parameters involved in
demonstrates that slope angle and slope height are negatively
machine learning prediction models, consequently, mini-
correlated, whereas cohesion and angle of internal friction
mizes the cost function easily to converge swiftly (Kingma
are positively correlated (Fig. 9). The effect of slope angle
and Ba 2014; Jais et al. 2019). The momentum enhances
and angle of internal friction are more pronounced in com-
Adam to update the parameters of the model in the process
parison to that of cohesion and slope height. The outcomes
of optimization by partially enumerating the one-step earlier
of finite difference were taken in multi-linear regression and
update in the present update (Meng et al. 2015; Balogun
artificial neural network as its input and output datasets.
and Adebisi 2021; Zhao et al. 2021). Essentially, momen-
Multicollinearity in the MLR will reduce the precision of
tum aids the Adam to avoid converging the models at local
the estimated coefficients, which will weaken the statistical
minima and hence enables them to attain the global minima.
power of the regression model. Eventually, to check that
Whereas, the adaptive learning rate governs the learning
there was no multicollinearity, VIF values were discerned.
rate (size of step in updating the parameters). A big learn-
Moreover, the estimated VIF values indicate that the regres-
ing may overshoot the minima and a small learning rate
sors chosen for MLR are unaffected by other independent
will delay the convergence. The Adam will overcome the
variables. Estimates of MLR model can swing wildly based
issue with the ALR technique, that enable the optimization
on other independent variables in the model, moreover, the
with bigger steps initially and on approaching the minima
coefficients become very sensitive to small changes in the

13
Environmental Earth Sciences (2022) 81:487 Page 11 of 18  487

quite high degree of accuracy when compared with the real

datasets enumerated through FDM (Fig. 10a–d). The model
minimizes the loss with each epoch, and eventually mean
squared error is reduced close to zero (Fig. 10e, f). Besides,
the appropriate weights are assigned to each parameter with
a bias in each layer, and consequently robust, swift and intel-
ligible ANN models were evolved.
The regression analysis of MLR prediction model yields
a value of R2 equal to 0.8945 on testing datasets and 0.9204
on the training datasets (Fig. 11a, b). The coefficient of
determination of ANN (with Adam optimizer) is 0.9985 and
0.9996 on testing and training data, respectively (Fig. 11c,
d). Besides, the ANN (with SGD optimizer) earns a R2 value
of 0.9926 (on testing data) and 0.9945 (on training datasets)
(Fig. 11e, f). The coefficient of determination can be derived
using Eq. (17); and the higher R2 values indicate the greater
significance of the prediction model. Hence, in the present
Fig. 9  Correlation among geotechnical properties and FoS (obtained study the ANN model (with Adam optimizer) is more reli-
through FDM) able and robust than the other ANN model (with SGD opti-
mizer) and the MLR model. The comparison of these models
model. Standard error is a statistical approach to test the fit has been further made based on mean squared error (MSE).
of any regression model, and smaller values of it approves Eventually, MSE declares that ANN (with Adam optimizer)
the viability of the devised prediction model through MLR performs better than their counterpart ANN (with SGD opti-
(Table 3). The significance of the MLR model further vali- mizer) and MLR (Table 4).
dated by other statistical methods viz., t value and p value
(Table 3). The smaller numeric values of p and *** signi- SSresidual
R2 = 1 − (17)
fies that the MLR model is free from randomness and is an SStotal
extremely confidents model (Di Leo and Sardanelli 2020).
where, ­SSresidual means squared sum of residuals, and ­SStotal
The MLR model derived in the present research can be deci-
indicates squared sum of total.
phered and analysed using Eq. (16) and Table 3.
Besides, predicting the FoS, the developed models have
FOSMLR = 1.4282724 + 0.00619 ∗ c + 0.03223 ∗ f a fair scope for upgradation into the risk estimation mod-
(16) els with incorporation of vulnerability factors in future. As,
− 0.00375 ∗ h − 0.03009 ∗ 𝜃
Sardooi et al. (2021) proposed a hybrid ML model for esti-
The artificial neural network models involved in the pre- mation of landslide risk zone by coupling the susceptibil-
sent research consist of four input parameters and one output ity and vulnerability attributes, contingent upon landslide
variable. Similar to MLR model, a total of 185 datasets, out inventories. Moreover, Abraham et al. (2021) developed five
of which 148 datasets were taken for training the neural net- AI-prediction models for landslide susceptibility mapping
work model and the rest 37 datasets were utilised as testing (LSM) based on 12 critical parameters to comprehend the
ANN model. The structure of the ANNs has two hidden lay- consequences of spatial resolution and train-test ratios of
ers of 32 nodes with GELU acting as an activation function, input datasets over the performance of these algorithms. To
bridging the input and output layers. The prediction capa- have the best prediction algorithm for provided computa-
bility of ANN models devised for the present study shows a tional facilities, it was opined to check the functioning of
different LSM prediction models by varying splitting ratios
of input datasets and trying all the available spatial-data res-
Table 3  Outcomes of MLR and statistical synopsis of the model olutions for any given area. However, in the present research
the significance of spatial resolution cannot affect the per-
Coefficients Estimate Std. error t value Pr ( >|t|) formance of the developed models, as the model training
Intercept 1.4282724 0.0687572 20.77  < 2e–16*** datasets rely on laboratory and field datasets only. Moreover,
Height − 0.0037531 0.0003018 − 12.43  < 2e–16*** the choice of data splitting (80–20) was made considering
Slope angle − 0.0300983 0.0010171 − 29.59  < 2e–16*** the accepted recommendation in the literature.
Cohesion 0.0061953 0.0003911 15.84  < 2e–16*** Additionally, a lucid expression determining the angle of
Friction angle 0.0322318 0.0011272 28.59  < 2e–16*** repose (accommodating the angle of internal friction and

13
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Page 12 of 18
Fig. 10  Pictorial performance illustration of the a ANN (with Adam
optimizer) on testing data; b ANN (with SGD optimizer) on testing
datasets; c ANN (with Adam optimizer) on training datasets; d ANN
cohesion) for granular heaps in terrestrial and extra-terres-
trial environments has been derived from the work of Elekes
and Parteli (2021). The equation is a function of particle size
and Van-der Waals forces, along with appropriate simulation
of interacting gravitational force on different planets. Thus,
the attained equation is open to extra-terrestrial bodies apart
from Earth and may be a good alternative to cohesion and
angle of internal friction in future terrestrial/extra-terres-
trial landslide studies. On contrary, the developed predictive
models are only credible to terrestrial slope failures, as only
13
Environmental Earth Sciences (2022) 81:487
(with SGD optimizer) on training datasets; e loss (MSE) vs epoch in
the training of the ANN model with Adam optimizer); f loss (MSE)
vs epoch in the training of the ANN model with SGD optimizer
Earth’s gravity is applied in numerical simulations of the
present work. Also, the future works in the line of Elekes
and Parteli (2021), will be an asset in comprehending extra-
terrestrial slope instabilities.
In addition, there are numerous factors controlling the
slope instability and its investigation, as discussed in the
above sections of the present manuscript, in the context
of past publications (Zhang and Liu 2010; Andriani et al.
2015; Cao et al. 2016; Fazio et al. 2019; Andriani and Loio-
tine 2020). Often, the availability of resources and ground
conditions dictate the choice of parameters as well as the
Environmental Earth Sciences (2022) 81:487 Page 13 of 18  487

Fig. 11  Picturing the performance of models a MLR (testing); b MLR (training); c ANN (with Adam optimizer) (testing); d ANN (with Adam
optimizer) (training) e ANN (with SGD optimizer) (testing); f ANN (with SGD optimizer) (training)

13
487 
Page 14 of 18
Table 4  Statistical comparison of developed models
Models R 2
MSE
MLR (testing) 0.8945 0.01823
MLR (training) 0.9204 0.01386
ANN—Adam optimizer (testing) 0.9985 0.00037
ANN—Adam optimizer (training) 0.9996 0.00006
ANN—SGD optimizer (testing) 0.9926 0.00171
ANN—SGD optimizer (training) 0.9945 0.00088
landslide analysis viz. empirical, numerical, remote sensing
and GIS (Fall et al. 2006; Hong et al. 2016; Kahyaoğlu et al.
2017; Chen et al. 2021a, b; Francioni et al. 2021; Khamkar
et al. 2022). Previously, the remote sensing-based landslide
conditioning factors, along with inventories, have supplanted
the susceptibility mapping (Abraham et al. 2021; Sardooi
et al. 2021). Published research articles lay emphasis on
the complementarity of parameters viz. grain-size distribu-
tion, water content, lithology, particle-shape, and degree of
consolidation over the shear-strength variables of the slope
(Parteli et al. 2014). Similarly, slope angle will determine
certain features like erosion, infiltration, land-use, and sur-
face-runoff (Hill and Peart 1998; Ribolzi et al. 2011; Peng
and Wang 2012), while parameters like type of vegetation,
geology, erosion, rainfall, or anthropogenic activities will
have an effect on slope geometry (Van Westen et al. 1997;
Kouli et al. 2010). Thus, a parameter aggravating the slope
mass condition may have some relationship with the other
triggering factors. So, the attributes governing the instability
in the present work (Eq. 5), may complement the parameter
accounted for in earlier literatures. Besides, the interde-
pendency among the combination of parameters affecting
slope failure should be examined scrupulously, before their
incorporation in landslide investigation or susceptibility
modelling.
Evidently, the results are in harmony with the field con-
ditions and can be extended to other regions with similar
geological and geo-environmental conditions. Further-
more, with the addition of more data from different regions
in training the developed algorithms, the viability of the
landslide estimation models can be extended to other areas.
The outcomes of the prediction models show the efficacy
of open-source tools which are used in poor and develop-
ing nations to swiftly assess slope safety, before the com-
mencement of the excavation. Further, the laboratory works
conducted in the present study contribute well to advancing
the knowledge of shear-attributes of slope masses. Addi-
tionally, the work is the first of its type in the studied area,
considering the significance of geotechnical and geometrical
attributes of slopes with the power of finite difference code.
Therefore, the developed machine learning models will aid
13
Environmental Earth Sciences (2022) 81:487
the government/private bodies to assess the safety concerns
of infrastructure projects, quite well. A vivid comparison
with recently published work indicated how the developed
models may account vulnerability factor to estimate associ-
ated risks along with FoS. Further, the work encapsulates
the discussion about landslide influencing variables and their
complementarity with other ones.
Conclusion
The aim of the present study is to devise a reliable model for
the prediction of the safety factor of slopes, through machine
learning techniques. However, one needs copious amount
of data to develop such machine learning models with
higher accuracy. Moreover, to suffice the objective of the
research and generate required data, preliminary fieldwork
was supplanted by laboratory assessment and finite differ-
ence examination. A total of 185 datasets were rendered in
this precursor study, which aided the further development
of the present prediction models. Numerous machine learn-
ing models prevail in the literature; however, multiple linear
regression and two artificial neural network (ANN) mod-
els were assimilated in the present work due to their wide-
acceptability and robustness. The stability of a slope can be
attributed to several parameters, however, the present MLR
and ANN prediction models consider the four most critical
parameters for the stability assessment. The four parameters
chosen as predictors in the present research are cohesion
(c), angle of internal friction (f), slope height (h), and slope
angle (θ). Density was not used as a parameter in deep learn-
ing model, since it had low variance in the study area. The
datasets generated in the preliminary study and were cat-
egorised into training datasets (80%) and testing datasets
(20%) to foster the further advancement of the research. Key
findings of the present work can be summarized as:
a. Statistical examination of the predictor (independent)
variables resulted in weak correlation among themselves
as well as multicollinearity lacks in the datasets. Hence,
the developed ML models will have greater viability.
b. The FDM analysis shows that lower values of slope
angle and slope height favours the stability, whereas
higher values of cohesion and angle of internal friction
render higher FoS.
c. All these prediction models have four independent vari-
ables (predictor) namely, cohesion, angle of internal
friction, slope angle and slope height with one depend-
ent variable (output) i.e., factor of safety (FoS)
d. The multiple linear regression (MLR) prediction model
earns a R2 value of 0.8945 (on testing datasets) with
other statistical terms declaring the coefficients’ such
as standard error, t value and p value for every predictor
Environmental Earth Sciences (2022) 81:487 Page 15 of 18  487
as highly significant. Moreover, the practicality of the
devised model can also owe to its lack of multi-colline-
arity among its regressors. However, MSE calculated for
the present model shows that model could lead to greater
error and compromise the performance.
e. Both the ANN models developed in the present research
beats the MLR model in terms of coefficient of determi-
nation and mean squared error. Establishing the suprem-
acy of artificial neural networks over multi-linear regres-
sion in case prediction models.
f. R2 of both the ANN models is greater than 0.99 and
MSE are of the order 1­ 0−4 or lower, hence the models
have a great value in terms of performance. Further-
more, the work shows that ANN model developed with
Adam as optimizer dominates the other structure of the
ANN with SGD as optimizer.
Acknowledgements  The authors would like to express their gratitude
to Itasca Consulting Group, Inc, tensorflow.org, python.org and r-pro-
ject.org for the analysis tools. VHRP would like to acknowledge UGC
Non-NET Fellowship—BHU for the financial assistance. AK and VS
would thank BHU-IOE seed grant for the financial support.
Declarations  2018.​14845​33
Conflict of interest  The authors declare that they have no known com-
peting financial interests or personal relationships that could have ap-
peared to influence the work reported in this paper.
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