Conditional

Probability and Bayes Theorem

Recall, the probability that A and B both happen is given by !(# ∩ %) = !(#) ∙ !(%|#)



!(#∩%)
Rearrange to get a formula for conditional probability: !(%|#) =
!(#)



1. Suppose that a company claims it has a test that is 95% effective in determining whether an athlete
is using a steroid. That is, if an athlete is using a steroid, the test will be positive 95% of the time. In
the case of a negative result, the company says its test is 97% accurate. That is, even if an athlete is
not using steroids, it is possible that the test will be positive in 3% of the cases. Such an occurrence
is called a false positive. Suppose this test is given to a group of athletes in which 10% of the
athletes are using steroids. What is the probability that a randomly chosen athlete uses steroids,
given that the athlete's test is positive?

Let * = uses steroids
~* = doesn’t use steroids
+ = positive test
− = negative test

Fill in the probabilities for each outcome on the branches of the tree diagram:

OI 0.9
S ∼S
0.95 0.05 0.03 0.97
+ – + –


Calculate !(*|+) using the formula above.


PCs P
pI


t reset

pent


o 1 0.957

Co 1 0,957 10.970.037
0.779 or 77.9
 !(#∩%)
Our intuitive formula !(%|#) = can be formally expressed as Baye’s Theorem:
!(#)

Ket
P ( A) × P ( B | A)
Bayes’ Theorem: P ( A | B ) =
P ( A) × P ( B | A) + P ( A ') × P ( B | A ')


PCYthsna
But no need to memorize it, you can stick with intuition!

2. A spam filter is designed with the knowledge that 95% of all email is spam. The designers of the filter
also know that 78% of spam messages contain the word “buy,” whereas only 6% of non-spam messages
contain the word “buy.” A filter rejects a message because it contains this word. Find the probability that
the message was spam.
s spam
0 95 0.05 B contains buy

NS
o.fiffo.osJ

017 80.22 0.06 0.94 PCS B
o.od


NB B NB 0.996




99.690

3.



b break




a l a

its



X

PIC b 0.310.03
10.47101013 10 3 0 01 0.3710 03

0.5625

56.25
 4. An accident happened at night, and a lone witness claimed a black car was involved in the accident.
Police know that 10% of all cars are black. They also know that witnesses correctly identify a black car as
such 90% of the time at night. However, they also know that witnesses incorrectly identify cars of other
colors as black 40% of the time at night. What is the probability a black car really was involved in the
accident?




OI 0.9 PCB dB co.fi fg9co y
B NB
on ay 0.2
dB nidB id B nidB

20


5. When used together, the ELISA and Western Blot tests for HIV are more than 99% accurate in
determining a positive result. The chance of a false positive is between 1 and 5 for every 100,000
tests. If we assume a 99% accuracy rate for correctly identifying positive results and 5/100,000
false positives, find the probability that someone who tests positive has HIV. (The Centers for
Disease Control and Preventi6n estimate that about 0.3% of U.S. residents are infected with HIV.)

01003 0.997
HIV NHIV


0 0.00005 0.99995
901


10 003710.997
P Hiv 0.983 98.3
0 003110.991 10gg
fo.oooos
6. A company has found that 80% of its new management hires are meeting expectations, while 20% are
not. Of the satisfactory hires, 75% had sales experience, while of the unsatisfactory hires, 55% had sales
experience. What is the probability that a new hire with sales experience will meet expectations?


10.8710 751

0.8 0.2 P meet s
meet unreet 108 0 75 10.270.55

0.75
0155 0.45 0.845

g v25 S Ns

84.5


7. Three boxes are labeled as A, B, and C. Box A contains 2 red and 3 black balls, box B contains 3 red and
1 black ball, and box C contains 1 red ball and 4 black balls. All the three boxes are identical and have an
equal probability of being picked up. What is the probability that the red ball was picked up from box A?

J 3


A Jp

0.4 0.60175 0.250.2 0.8


r b r b r b


F CO 4
P A r


376.4 4 0.757 3 10.2
29.6

8. A box contains many foil wrapped candies. 30% are chocolates and the rest are not. 50% of chocolate are
wrapped in white, 20% in red and the rest in blue foil. Among the non-chocolate eggs, 40% are wrapped
or
in white, 30% in red and the rest in blue. If you know Bayes’ Theorem, you know what color wraapper is
most likely to yield a chocolate. What color should you pick? What is your probability of getting a
chocolate with this color?

0.3 0.7




C Nc
05 0.3 013
o 0.40.3
W R B W R B


most to be
P Cnw O Lse White wrapper is likely chocolate

P CNR 0.06
P CAB 0.09

3



PCC W
10.3
35 7110.47


Answers:
1) 77.9% 2) 99.6% 3) 56.25% 4) 20%
5) 98.3% 6) 84.5% 7) 29.6% 8) white, 34.88%