Trends and Moves in

Pak-US Relations
Current Affair Series
CSS/PMS
 Lecture Outline

 A Short Review of Relations

 Nature of Relations
 Common Grounds
 Frictions Areas
 Pak-US Ties under the Trump Administration
 Pakistan Response on Trump Policy
 Pak-US Relations under the Joe Biden
Administration
 Status of Pak-U.S Ties after US Exit from
Afghanistan
 Way Forward
 Future Prospects of Pak US-Relations
 Research Links
A Short Review of Relations
 A Short Review of Relations

 The United States remains one of the first

countries to have established diplomatic ties with
Pakistan dates back to Oct 20, 1947,based
on military and economic support.

 Later on, Pakistan joined SEATO and CENTO in

1954 and 1955 respectively.

 1954: Pakistan signed Mutual Defense Assistance

Agreement with USA . Under the agreement,
Pakistani soldiers went to USA for training.

 During the Ayub Khan era,Pakistan enjoyed a

close relations with huge military and financial
assistance .
 A Short Review of Relations

 In 1960, Ayub Khan granted permission USA to fly its

first spy mission to the Soviet Union from the
Peshawar Air Base.
Operation Cyclone

Operation Cyclone was  1971-1974: Being an important ally for US during the
the code name for cold war, USA supported Pakistan
the United States Central  Pakistan also assisted President Richard Nixon to
Intelligence Agency (CIA) his first visit to China.
program to arm and
finance the Afghan
mujahideen in Afghanist  1979-1988: During Zia ul Haq’s Pakistan & USA
an from 1979 to 1989 to enjoyed a warm relations and Pakistan received
defeat USSR. Operation billions dollars military & economic aid from
Cyclone was one of the Washington.
longest and most
expensive covert CIA
 ISI and CIA ran multi-billion-dollar worth Operation
operations.
Cyclone to spoil the communist regime as well as
defeating Soviets in Afghanistan.
 A Short Review of Relations

 1990: US, imposed sanctions on Pakistan,

under the Pressler amendment as Pakistan
lost its strategic importance after Soviet
downfall.

 Pakistan’s nuclear program was the issue that

divided the two countries in the 1990.

 Pak-US relations had comprised many ups and

downs and invasive impacts on our country’s
history.

 After 9/11, relations improved when Pakistan

became the ally of War on terror.
A Short Review of Relations

 The last phase of that relationship, the ‘war

on terror’ alliance, ended in August 2017,
when Donald Trump announced a punitive
policy towards Pakistan:
 Suspending high-level contacts
 Freezing Coalition Support Funds
 Demanding Pakistan cooperation on
Afghanistan.

 US Taliban Agreement brought close together

both countries provisionally.

 Ties have swung in a cyclical pattern between

close engagement and deep rifts
 A Short Review of Relations

 America’s new hostility towards

Pakistan is due mostly to its emerging
global rivalry with China
 Pakistan is listed on China’s side of
the power equation

 The US-South Asia Policy is predicated

on India’s regional domination and US
close economic and military interests
with New Delhi
Nature of Pak-US Relations
 Nature of Relations
Mr. Imran Zahoor PhD in IR 0321-4800309

 Short Term and Conditional

 Parties use each other for securing its
interests.
 Non-institutionalize
 based on mostly state level.
 Trust Deficit
 Lack of mutual understanding with low
level of trust.
 Divergence of Interests
 At bilateral, regional & global level.
 Anti Public Sentiments
 Non-supportive attitude from the public
side
 Denial of Ground Realities
 Fail to understand each other concerns
and interests realistically.
Common Grounds
 Common Grounds
Mr. Imran Zahoor PhD in IR 0321-4800309
 Trade
 Energy
 Aid
 Work together under International
Organizations
 Education
 Defence
 Dynamic Pakistani Diaspora in USA
 Mutual supporters on:
 Environment
 Nuclear Proliferation
 Int. Maritime security
 Drugs and human trafficking issues
Friction Areas
 Friction Areas

 Security and Terrorism

 Infiltration into Kashmir
 Afghanistan Issue
 Nuclear Weapons and Missile
Proliferation
 Indian Factor
 Religious Extremism and Anti-
American Sentiment.
 Unsettled Kashmir issue
 Democratization & Human Rights
Pak-US Ties under the
Trump Administration
Pak-US Ties under the Trump Administration

Trump Foreign Policy Concept

 Less interested of US involvement in

Global Affairs

 U.S. role in NATO may diminish.

 American grave reservations on climate

Treaties

 Apply high tariffs on Chinese imports

 Propose construct a wall along the

US–Mexican border.
 Pak-US Ties under the Trump Administration

Trump Perception about Pakistan

 Pakistan: A key actor in peace process in

Afghanistan and NAP: A roadmap to
neutralize extremism.

 Pakistan apparently tricky role in its

continue support to the Haqqani faction.

 Safe heavens of terrorists are still in

Pakistan which cause to attack on NATO
& US forces in Afghanistan
Pak-US Ties under the Trump Administration

 Pakistan is also a major consumer market

for US goods.

 Pakistan has been actively transforming

its defence-centric engagement with
China & Russia

 Islamabad is investing heavily in

 Warheads
 Missiles
 Production of Tactical small nuclear
weapons
Pakistan Response on Trump
Policy
 Pakistan Response on Trump Policy

 Pakistan policy is based on its own

security concerns
 Currently, Islamabad is not ready to
surrender to Washington’s
demands.
 Clear message of “NO MORE” to
Washington


 Washington current Policy with

Pakistan is unrealistic
 Deal with new line of threats
 To ignore our sacrifices against war
on terror
 Pakistan Response on Trump Policy

 Indian Presence in
Afghanistan: insufferable for
Islamabad
 A major anxiety for Pakistan
security interests
 India: Using Afghan soil against
Pakistan.

 Pakistan remains undeterred

by Washington new threats.
 Found other good options-
Russia and China
Pakistan Response on Trump Policy

 U.S. opposition to CPEC which

proves Washington an unreliable
ally of Pakistan.

 U.S wants to sustain tensions

between Pakistan and India
 US reluctant to initiate an India-
Pakistan dialogue to normalize bilateral
relations.
 Such attitude destabilize the region
 To harm the US interests in South Asia
Pak-US Relations under the Joe
Biden Administration
Pak-US Relations under the Joe Biden Administration

 No U.S President has taken office with as

much knowledge of Pakistan as Biden.

 He has crafted Pakistan-focused legislation,

made multiple visits, cultivated deep ties
with civilian & military leaders.

 He even received the Hilal-i-Pakistan Award.

 Biden launched Strategic Dialogue with

Pakistan during the Obama years.

 Biden comfort level with Pakistan can

pursue effective & meaningful diplomacy
 Pak-US Relations under the Joe Biden Administration
 Biden was big on supporting “The Enhanced
Partnership Act of 2009” known as the Kerry-
Lugar Bill).
 Currently, issues between Biden and
Islamabad are:
 Afghanistan Issue
 Human & minority rights
 Media freedom
 Enforced disappearances
 Terrorism-related issues
 Terrorist funding
 Money laundering
 Safety of nuclear arsenal
The Enhanced Partnership
Act of 2009
The Enhanced Partnership
with Pakistan Act of 2009 s.
1707(also known as the
Kerry-Lugar-Berman Act) was
an Act of Congress passed
into law on October 15, 2009.
It authorizes the release of
$1.5 billion per year to the
Government of Pakistan as
non-military aid from the
period of 2010 to 2014.
Pak-US Relations under the Joe Biden Administration

 Climate, healthcare, education &

infrastructure development are key areas
where Pakistan and Biden can find common
grounds to improve relations.

 Presently, Islamabad also needs

Washington:
 To get loans from IMF Washington
 U.S. market access to enhance its trade.

 Biden can give Pakistan some economic

incentives mainly if he eliminates sanctions
on Iran
 Completion of IP gas pipeline
 Pak-US Relations under the Joe Biden Administration

 Pakistan discriminatory taxation laws,

regulatory barriers and weak intellectual
property safeguards can hinder U.S.
investments in Pakistan in future.

 Necessary financial reforms can make

Pakistan an attractive country for U.S.
investment under Biden Government .

 Ample Pakistani Diaspora in the U.S. can

helpful to reinforce Pakistan relations with
Biden Administration.

 Pakistan need to work hard to reinforce Pak-

US relations with Biden Government
Status of Pak-U.S Ties after US Exit
from Afghanistan
 Status of Pak-U.S Ties after US Exit from Afghanistan

 Washington views that during war on Terror,

Pakistan protected Taliban as an assets inside
Afghanistan.

 During the Afghan War, the U.S. tolerated

Pakistan duplicitous game because of little
choice.

 America believes that Taliban victory is the

Pakistan victory.

 By Americans, Taliban victory is the back up

of the “Strategic Depth Doctrine”.

 Relations with Pakistan, already on the down

slope, will go down further
Status of Pak-U.S Ties after US Exit from Afghanistan

 Now US will give less incentives to deal with

Pakistan. Removing Pakistan status as a major
Non-NATO Ally

 After U.S exit, Pakistan is filling space in

Afghanistan with the help of Russia and China.

 US State Secretary Antony Blinken said, U.S will

assess Pakistan ties over Afghanistan future.
 Pakistan cooperation in counter terrorism in
Afghanistan.
 Pak-US relations will depend Pakistan role in
Afghanistan.
 Pakistan should cooperate with international
community to restore rights of Afghan people
 Status of Pak-U.S Ties after US Exit from Afghanistan

 Pakistan choices in coming years in Afghanistan

will determine direction of Pak-US relations.

 Other side, Pakistan has also grave concerns with

United States on Afghan War since 2001 to 2021

 US policymakers have turned a blind eye to the

negative impact of War on Terror on Pakistan.
 83,000 deaths in War on Terror
 $126 billion economic loss of Pakistan
 Over 500 suicide bombs attacks in Pakistani
between 1995 and 2020
 1.4 million registered and 1.5 million unregistered
Afghan refugees in Pakistan
 Pakistan brought the Taliban to the negotiating
table in Qatar on U.S request
Status of Pak-U.S Ties after US Exit from Afghanistan

 Blaming Pakistan will achieve nothing in granular

terms, and will only make things more complicated
in Afghanistan.

 Pakistan has done a lot:

 Clearing Terrorists sanctuaries in the tribal belt
 Conducting operations on western border
 Brought Taliban on negotiating table in Qatar
 Fencing Durand Line
 Help in safe evacuation of American officials from
Afghanistan

 FM Shah Mahmood Qureshi said at Council on

Foreign Relations in New York:
 U.S build a bilateral relations in trade, investment and
people-to-people contacts.
 Break out of the cyclical pattern that defined Pakistan-
US ties in the past
 Status of Pak-U.S Ties after US Exit from Afghanistan

 Pakistan stresses on both countries should

restart the new era of relations after U.S exit
from Afghanistan.

 United States should not leave Afghanistan

alone again and extend working its relations
with Taliban.

 Leaving Afghanistan alone will invite security

problems, regional disorder, creating space
for terrorism, humanitarian crisis and
refugees burden on Pakistan.

 Pakistan is ready to provide all kind of

assistance to US to stabilize Afghanistan.
Way Forward
Way Forward

 Institutional framework should be designed to

address and resolve core issues.

 Bring eternal peace in Afghanistan, both sides

still need to work jointly.

 Elimination safe haven of terrorists along

Afghanistan border by mutual intelligence
sharing.

 Engage private sector from both side to raise

bilateral trade and investment.

 The United States should give more space to

Pakistani goods in US markets
 Way Forward

 The US necessitates to preserve a rational balance

in relations with Pakistan and India.

 Sanctions toward Pakistan should not be a policy

option.

 Pakistan should maintain its status as a neutral

state in global politics to better deal with USA

 U.S. and Pakistan must be avoided extremes and

find middle grounds for normalization.

 Pakistan should develop good ties with Australia,

UK, France & Canada. These countries can
facilitate to improve Pak-U.S. ties
Future Prospects of Pak-US
Relations
 Future Prospects of Pak US Relations

 Afghan factor, U.S-India alliance & U.S –China

hostility will affect Pak-US relation in future.

 Pakistan will have to find alternate of IMF & world

Bank in case of tense relations with U.S in future.

 Counterterrorism, regional arms control, non

military financial support and global non-
proliferation will remain areas of cooperation in
future.

 Trade and investment will play a vital role to

reinforce Pakistan-US in coming times.

 Changing Regional and global trends will also affect

relations in future.
 Research Links
 https://www.futuredirections.org.au/publication/pakistan-us-relations-how-to-bridge-the-widening-gap/

 https://www.gprjournal.com/jadmin/Auther/31rvIolA2LALJouq9hkR/YJKMgH43pD.pdf

 https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/26/world/asia/afghanistan-pakistan-taliban.html

 https://www.futuredirections.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/President-Biden-and-the-Pakistan-US-Relationship.pdf

 https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/fp_20210105_Pakistan_transcript.pdf

 https://www.futuredirections.org.au/publication/president-biden-and-the-pakistan-us-relationship/

 file:///C:/Users/Pakistan%20Computers/Downloads/14_v33_2_18ImranRashidUmbreenJavaid.pdf

 https://www.state.gov/u-s-relations-with-pakistan/

 https://www.dawn.com/news/882492/timeline-chronology-of-pak-us-relations

 https://www.dawn.com/news/731670/timelinehistory-of-us-pakistan-relations

 https://www.dawn.com/news/1531210

 https://www.dawn.com/news/1615258/ironies-of-a-no-win-war