Prediction of Life Cycle Characteristics of Thermal Battery Using Linear

Regression Algorithm

Submitted in complete fulfilment of requirement.

For the degree of

Bachelor of Technology

in

Mechanical Engineering

2019-2023

Dayalbagh Educational Institute

Submitted by: Ankit Upadhyay(1804828)
Anuj Baghel(1804830)
Anuj Goyal(1804831)
Piyush Singh(1901999)
Rishabh Goyal(1902099)

Sh. Manoj Kumar

(Major Project Coordinator)
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
we would like to express our gratitude to ‘MANOJ KUMAR’ for providing us with the
opportunity to carry out our major project. we express our deepest gratitude to our project guide
for taking part in useful decision & giving necessary advices and guidance. We are highly
indebted to our project guide for their guidance and constant supervision as well as for
providing necessary information regarding the project.
Their deep understanding of the subject matter has provided us with valuable insights, helping
us to develop a comprehensive understanding of the project and its implications. Their
guidance has shaped our research direction and has enabled us to make informed decisions at
every stage of the project.
Their meticulous attention to detail and critical evaluation of our work have been instrumental
in refining our ideas and improving the quality of our project. Their insightful suggestions and
recommendations have pushed us to explore new avenues and to think critically, resulting in a
more robust and well-rounded final product.
We would like to express my gratitude towards our parents &teacher for their kind co-operation
and encouragement which helped us in completion of this project. our thanks and appreciations
also go to my colleague in developing the project and people who have willingly helped us out
with their abilities.
1. Abstract
In today’s world, energy security is the most important aspect for anyone on this planet, there
is a huge gap between the energy production and demand, to bridge this gap there is research
going on the development of thermal energy storage which stores energy and can directly give
heat as the output, it will become very crucial battery in the future.

The use of thermal batteries with paraffin wax as a phase change material is gaining popularity
due to their potential for energy storage and environmental benefits. However, there is a need
to evaluate the various impact of the battery's life cycle and optimize its performance. This
study aims to conduct a life cycle analysis (LCA) of a thermal battery with paraffin wax and
predict its charging and discharging rate using linear regression models and historical data from
research papers.

In order to predict the charging and discharging rates of the thermal battery, a linear regression
model was trained using historical data on the battery's performance under various conditions
that are temperature, Heat capacity and Encapsulation shape and materials included in Design
and Technical Parameter’s Set. The model was validated using experimental data, and the
results show that the model is accurate in predicting the charging and discharging rate of the
thermal battery. The accuracy of this Linear regression model was evaluated, and has an error
percentage of less than 15 % from the experimental values of 10000 cycles which is being
provided and which is under the acceptable limit. This model achieved a high accuracy in
predicting the charging and discharging rates of the battery, this study highlights the potential
energy Consumption benefits of using thermal batteries with paraffin wax as a phase change
material and provides a method for optimizing their performance using machine learning
algorithms.
2. Introduction

Renewable energy resources have many advantages over fossil fuels. Fossil fuels are a finite
resource, meaning they will eventually run out. Renewable energy sources, on the other hand,
are virtually limitless and can be replenished over time. This means that renewable energy is a
sustainable choice that can meet our energy needs for generations to come, and According to
the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), renewable energy technologies can
play a significant role in reducing greenhouse gas emissions and mitigating climate change.
The IPCC estimates that up to 77% of global electricity generation could come from renewable
sources by 2050, depending on policy and technology developments.[1]

Fossil fuels are responsible for a significant amount of greenhouse gas emissions, which
contribute to climate change also According to the International Energy Agency (IEA),
renewable energy accounted for approximately 80% of the global electricity sector's growth in
2020. This growth has helped to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and mitigate the impacts of
climate change. Renewable energy sources have a much smaller environmental footprint and
produce little to no greenhouse gas emissions and Renewable energy can also reduce air
pollution and improve public health. A study by Harvard University found that transitioning to
renewable energy could prevent up to 295,000 premature deaths in the United States alone by
2050. [2]

The cost of renewable energy technologies, such as solar and wind power, has been declining
rapidly in recent years. As a result, renewable energy is becoming increasingly cost-
competitive with fossil fuels, and in some cases is already cheaper, and The cost of energy
storage technologies, such as lithium-ion batteries, is also declining rapidly, making it
increasingly viable to store renewable energy for use when it is needed. According to
BloombergNEF, the cost of lithium-ion batteries fell by 89% between 2010 and 2020, and is
expected to continue to decline in the coming years.[3]

Renewable energy sources can be generated locally, which reduces our dependence on foreign
sources of energy. This can enhance energy security and reduce the risk of supply disruptions
and According to the U.S. Department of Energy, the United States imported approximately
9.94 million barrels of petroleum per day in 2020, with the majority of the imports coming
from foreign countries. By generating energy from renewable sources locally, countries can
reduce their dependence on foreign energy sources and enhance their energy security.[4]

The amount of energy consumed does not match the amount of energy required at a given time.
This can be particularly problematic for renewable energy sources, such as wind and solar
power, which are intermittent and can only produce energy when the wind is blowing or the
sun is shining. One solution to the energy mismatch problem is the use of thermal energy
storage systems. These systems store excess energy when it is available and release it when it
is needed, providing a way to balance the energy supply and demand and According to the
International Energy Agency, the global energy storage capacity is expected to triple by 2030,
with a significant portion of the growth coming from the deployment of battery storage
systems. In 2020, the installed capacity of energy storage systems worldwide was 171 GW,
which is expected to reach 1,095 GW by 2040.

The renewable energy industry has the potential to create many jobs in areas such as
manufacturing, installation, and maintenance. This can help to stimulate local economies and
create new employment opportunities, and renewable energy has the significant source of job
creations and According to the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), the
renewable energy sector employed approximately 11 million people worldwide in 2018 [5].
This represents an increase of 6.5% from the previous year, and also the renewable energy
industry also creates jobs in related industries such as research and development, finance, and
legal services.

There are several types of renewable energy, including solar energy ,wind energy ,hydro
energy, geothermal energy ,biomass energy etc Energy harnessed from the sun's radiation is
converted into electricity through photovoltaic cells or used directly for heating water and space
called solar energy. Energy generated from the wind is used to turn turbines which, in turn,
produce electricity is wind energy. Energy is generated through the flow of water, which is
used to turn turbines that produce electricity called as Hydro energy . Energy harnessed from
the earth's internal heat is used to generate electricity or heat buildings called as geo thermal
energy. Energy generated from organic materials such as wood, agricultural crops, and waste
is burned to produce heat or electricity called as biomass energy. Energy generated from the
movement of the tides is used to turn turbines that produce electricity called as tidal energy

Solar energy is preferred over other energy sources .Solar energy is abundant, and its potential
is virtually limitless. The sun provides more energy in one hour than the world uses in a year.
Solar energy is clean and produces no harmful pollutants. Unlike fossil fuels, solar energy does
not contribute to air pollution or greenhouse gas emissions, making it a sustainable and
environmentally friendly source of energy. The cost of solar energy has decreased significantly
over the past decade, making it increasingly cost-effective. In many cases, solar energy is now
cheaper than fossil fuels and can provide a long-term return on investment. Solar energy
systems are relatively easy to install, and they can be placed on a variety of surfaces, including
rooftops and open fields. This makes solar energy accessible to a wide range of consumers and
communities. Solar panels require little maintenance, and they can last for 25 to 30 years or
more. This makes solar energy a reliable and long-lasting source of energy.

The energy produced today is not fully stored due to less available options to energy, also we
have to change the form of energy to store it. To overcome this issue the thermal energy storage
systems are being developed, these storage systems will be like any other battery, but the main
difference will be the output form, the thermal battery will directly supply heat as the output
which can be used for any purpose.

3.Types of Thermal battery storage systems

3.1.Sensible Heat Storage

SHS is a simple way of storing thermal energy by heating or cooling a storage material, such
as water, sand, molten salts, or rocks. Water is the most common and affordable option for
residential and industrial use. Sensible heat storage in both liquid and solid mediums is also
used on a large scale, often stored underground. The SHS system is an inexpensive and safe
method for storing thermal energy without using toxic materials. This system works by using
the storage medium's heat capacity and temperature change during charging and discharging
processes. The amount of heat stored depends on the specific heat of the storage medium, the
temperature change, and the quantity of the storage material used.[6]
Temperature

Fig 1 Thermal energy storage modes based on sensible heat(SHS)

(

𝑡
𝑄𝑆 = ∫𝑡 𝑓 𝑚𝑐𝑝 𝑑𝑡 = 𝑚𝑐𝑝 (𝑡𝑓 − 𝑡𝑖 ) (1)
𝑖

where 𝑄𝑆 is the quantity of heat stored, in Joules; 𝑚 is the mass of heat storage medium, in kg;
𝑐𝑝 is the specific heat, in J/(kg·K); 𝑡𝑖 is the initial temperature, in ℃; 𝑡𝑓 is the final temperature,
in ℃. Water appears to be the best SHS liquid available because it is inexpensive and has a
high specific heat. However, above 100 ℃, oils, molten salts, and liquid metals are used. For
air heating applications, rock bed type storage materials are used.

3.2 Latent Heat or Phase-Change Storage

The materials used in LHS are known as PCMs because they release or absorb energy when
they change their physical state. When PCMs change state, their energy storage density
increases, and the volume is reduced (as shown in Figure2). In LHS, heat is stored during the
phase-change process at a nearly constant temperature that is directly connected to the latent
heat of the material. Using LHS with PCMs is an effective way to store thermal energy because
it has a high-energy storage density and an isothermal storage process. LHS is advantageous
over SHS because it can store heat at almost the same temperature range. These materials
initially behave like SHS materials, where the temperature increases linearly with the system's
enthalpy. However, later on, heat is absorbed or released at almost constant

temperature due to the change in physical state of the material. LHS is based on the heat
absorption or release when a storage material undergoes a phase change from solid to liquid or
liquid to gas or vice versa. The storage capacity Qs, in J, of the LHS system with a PCM
medium is given by.
Temperature

Fig 2 Thermal energy storage modes based on the Latent heat (LHS)

𝑡 𝑡
𝑄𝑠 = ∫𝑡 𝑚 𝑚𝑐𝑝 𝑑𝑡 + 𝑚𝑓∆𝑞 + ∫𝑡 𝑓 𝑚𝑐𝑝 𝑑𝑡 (2)
𝑖 𝑚

𝑄𝑠 = 𝑚[𝑐𝑝𝑠 (𝑡𝑚 − 𝑡𝑖 ) + 𝑓∆𝑞 + 𝑐𝑝𝑙 (𝑡𝑓 − 𝑡𝑚 )] (3)

where 𝑡𝑚 is the melting temperature, in ℃; 𝑚 is the mass of PCM medium, in kg; 𝑐𝑝𝑠 is the
average specific heat of the solid phase between 𝑡𝑖 and 𝑡𝑚 , in kJ/(kg·K); 𝑐𝑝𝑙 is the average
specific heat of the liquid phase between 𝑡𝑚 and 𝑡𝑓 , in J/(kg·K); 𝑓 is the melt fraction; ∆𝑞 is
the latent heat of fusion, in J/kg. For example, Glauber’s salt (Na2SO4·10H2O) has 𝑐𝑝𝑠 ≈ 1950
J/(kg· ℃), 𝑐𝑝𝑙 ≈ 3550 J/(kg· ℃), and ∆𝑞 = 2.43 × 105 J/kg at 34 ℃.[7]

3.2.1 Phase Change Materials

The phase change process happens in different ways, including solid-solid, liquid-gas, and
solid-liquid. Heat is stored by transitioning between different forms of crystallization in solid-

Fig 3 classification of phase change material(pcm)

solid phase changes. For liquid-gas systems, the latent heat is high, but it's difficult to control
storage due to significant volume changes during phase change. The most common type of
PCM is solid liquid because it has a limited volume change during phase change (usually less
than 10%) and high melting latent heat. The melting process can produce energy densities of
100 kWh/m3, compared to 25 kWh/m3 for SHS options. PCMs can be used for both short term
(daily) and long-term (seasonal) energy storage using different materials and techniques.
Possible applications of PCMs include:

Every latent heat energy storage system has three essential components:

1. A suitable PCM with a melting point that matches the desired temperature range

2. A suitable surface for heat exchange

3. A compatible container for the PCM.

3.3 Chemical Energy Storage

TCS uses thermo-chemical materials (TCM) that store and release heat through a reversible
chemical reaction process. During the charging process, heat is applied to a material called A,
which separates it into two parts, B and C. The resulting reaction products can be separated
and stored until the energy is needed during the discharge process. Then, the two parts B and
C are mixed together at specific pressure and temperature conditions, and the stored energy is
released.

The products B and C can be stored separately, and the storage units experience minimal
thermal losses due to sensible heat effects, which are usually small compared to the heat of the
reaction. Researchers have also considered using thermal decomposition of metal oxides for
energy storage. These reactions have an advantage in that the oxygen produced can be used for
other purposes or discarded, and oxygen from the atmosphere can be used in the reverse
reactions. For example, one method is the decomposition of potassium oxide.
KO2 ↔ 2K2O + 3O2 (4)

which occurs over a temperature range of 300–800 ◦C with a heat of decomposition of 2.1
MJ/kg, and that of lead oxide,

2PbO2 ↔ 2PbO + O2 (5)

which occurs over a temperature range of 300–350 ◦C with a heat of decomposition of 0.26
MJ/kg. There are many practical problems yet to be faced in the use of these reactions. [8]

Fig 4 Charging Step of Thermo chemical Storages

 Figure 5 Storage step of Thermo chemical Storages

Figure 6: Discharging Step of Thermo Chemical Storages

4. Thermal Battery Characteristics using Paraffin Wax as Phase change Materials

Thermal batteries are devices that store thermal energy by melting a phase-change material,
such as paraffin wax, and releasing the energy when the material solidifies. The use of paraffin
wax as the phase-change material offers several advantages, such as high energy density, low
cost, and easy availability. The technical parameters of thermal batteries using paraffin wax
include the energy storage capacity, energy density, time to melt, temperature range, efficiency,
heat transfer rate, and power output. the technical and design parameters of thermal batteries
using paraffin wax are numerous and complex, and careful consideration must be given to each
parameter to ensure optimal performance and reliability. Key points to keep in mind include
the importance of the encapsulation material, the surface area of the encapsulation container,
the thermal conductivity of the encapsulation material, the heat source, temperature control,
thermal insulation, design for expansion, storage.

• Technical Parameters
 • Design Parameters

Figure 7 (a, b) Schematic of LHS unit with encapsulated PCM During (Charging-Left) and
(Discharging Right)

4.1 Technical parameters:

These are the Technical Parameters that will Judge the Battery’s Performances like Energy
Density, Melting Time Temperature Range, Efficiency and Charging rates etc. [9]

Energy storage capacity (E): The energy storage capacity is the amount of thermal energy
stored in the paraffin wax during the melting process and is calculated as the mass of the
paraffin wax multiplied by the heat of fusion

𝐸 = 𝑚 × ∆𝐻𝑓 (6)

where 𝑚 is the mass of the paraffin wax and ∆𝐻𝑓 is the heat of fusion.

Energy density (ED): The energy density is the amount of thermal energy stored per unit
volume of the thermal battery and is calculated as the energy storage capacity divided by the
volume of the thermal battery.

𝐸𝐷 = 𝐸/𝑉 (7)

where 𝑉 is the volume of the thermal battery.

Melting time (𝑡𝑚𝑒𝑙𝑡 ): The time to melt is the time required for the paraffin wax to melt
completely and is calculated as the product of the mass of the paraffin wax, the heat of fusion,
and the inverse of the heating power applied to the thermal battery, divided by the surface area
of the encapsulation container.

The time required for the paraffin wax to melt completely is given by:

𝑡𝑚𝑒𝑙𝑡 = (𝑚 × ∆𝐻𝑓 )/(𝑃 × 𝐴) (8)

where 𝑃 is the heating power applied to the thermal battery and 𝐴 is the surface area of the
encapsulation container.

Temperature range (∆𝑇): The temperature range is the range of temperatures over which the
thermal battery can operate and is calculated as the difference between the melting temperature
and the solidification temperature of the paraffin wax.

The temperature range over which the thermal battery can operate is given by:

∆𝑇 = (𝑡𝑚𝑒𝑙𝑡 − 𝑡𝑠𝑜𝑙𝑖𝑑 ) (9)

where ‘𝑡𝑚𝑒𝑙𝑡 ’ is the melting temperature of the paraffin wax and ‘𝑡𝑠𝑜𝑙𝑖𝑑 ’ is the solidification
temperature.

Efficiency (𝜂): The efficiency of the thermal battery is the ratio of the input thermal energy
required to melt the paraffin wax to the output thermal energy available for use.

The efficiency of the thermal battery is given by:

𝐸
𝜂 = (𝐸 𝑖𝑛 ) (10)
𝑜𝑢𝑡

where ‘𝐸𝑖𝑛 ’ is the input thermal energy required to melt the paraffin wax and ‘𝐸𝑜𝑢𝑡 ’ is the
output thermal energy available for use.

Charging rate (𝑄): The heat transfer rate is the rate of heat transfer between the thermal battery
and the environment and is calculated as the product of the thermal conductivity of the
encapsulation material, the surface area of the encapsulation container, the temperature
difference between the paraffin wax and the environment, and the inverse of the thickness of
the encapsulation material. [9]

The rate of heat transfer between the thermal battery and the environment is given by:

∆𝑇
𝑄 = (𝑘 × 𝐴 × ) (11)
𝑑

4.2 Design parameters

The design parameters of thermal batteries using paraffin wax include the encapsulation
material, encapsulation shape, thermal conductivity of the encapsulation material, heat source,
temperature control, thermal insulation, design for expansion, storage capacity, and cycle life.
[10]

Encapsulation material: The encapsulation material must be chosen carefully to ensure it

does not react chemically with the paraffin wax and can withstand the temperatures involved
in the phase-change process.

Encapsulation shape: The shape of the encapsulation container can influence the performance
of the thermal battery. For example, a larger surface area can improve the rate of heat transfer.

Thermal conductivity of the encapsulation material: The thermal conductivity of the

encapsulation material can also affect the performance of the thermal battery. A higher thermal
conductivity can improve heat transfer and increase the overall efficiency of the thermal
battery.

Heat source: The thermal battery needs a heat source to melt the paraffin wax and store the
energy. The heat source could be a resistive heating element, solar collector, or any other
suitable heat source.

Temperature control: The thermal battery must have a system to control the temperature
during charging and discharging to ensure optimal performance and prevent overheating or
under heating.

Thermal insulation: To minimize heat loss during storage, the thermal battery must have
adequate thermal insulation to reduce heat transfer between the environment and the paraffin
wax.

Design for expansion: The design of the thermal battery must take into account the expansion
of the paraffin wax during the melting process to avoid leakage or damage to the encapsulation
material.

Storage capacity: The storage capacity of the thermal battery can be increased by using larger
quantities of paraffin wax or by improving the design to maximize the surface area for heat
transfer.

Cycle life: The thermal battery must be designed to withstand numerous thermal cycles without
degradation in performance or leakage.
5. Development of machine learning model for life cycle analysis

• Classification Model
The classification models are the most simple and easy to use among all other
predictive analytics models available. These models arrange the data in categories
based on what they learn from the historical data.

Classification models provide the solution in “yes” and “no” to provide a

comprehensive analysis. For instance, these models help to answer questions like:

• Clustering Model
As data collection may have similar types and attributes, the clustering model helps
sort data into different groups based on these attributes. This predictive analytics model
is the best choice for effective marketing strategies to divide the data into other datasets
based on common characteristics.

• Forecast Model
The forecast model of predictive analytics involves the metric value prediction for
analyzing future outcomes. This predictive analytics model helps businesses for
estimating the numeric value of new data based on historical data.

• Outliers Model
Unlike the classification and forecast model, which works on the historical data, the
outlier’s model of predictive analytics considers the anomalous data entries from the
given dataset for predicting future outcomes.

The model can analyze the unusual data either by itself or by combining it with other
categories and numbers present.

• Time Series Model

The time series model of predictive analytics is the best choice when considering time
as the input parameter to predict future outcomes. This predictive model works with
data points drawn from the historical data to develop the numerical metric and predict
future trends.

Linear regression is a simple and commonly used statistical method for predicting a
continuous outcome variable based on one or more predictor variables. It is often considered
one of the best machine learning algorithms for several reasons:
Linear regression is a simple and easy-to-understand algorithm that requires only a basic
knowledge of statistics and mathematics. Linear regression models provide clear and
interpretable coefficients that allow us to understand the relationship between each predictor
variable and the outcome variable. Linear regression can be very efficient for large datasets
and can be easily implemented in a variety of programming languages.Linear regression can
be used for both simple and complex models, and can be adapted for use in a wide range of
applications, from finance and marketing to medicine and social science.
When the assumptions of linear regression are met, it can produce highly accurate predictions
and can outperform more complex machine learning algorithms in certain situations.

5.1 Development of Models –

import pandas as pd
import numpy as np
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
from sklearn import linear_model
from sklearn.model_selection import train_test_split

df = pd.read_csv("charging3.csv")

df
regTime1 = linear_model.LinearRegression()
regTime1.fit(df[["Cycle"]], df["Time1"])
regTime2 = linear_model.LinearRegression()
regTime2.fit(df[["Cycle"]], df["Time2"])
regTime3 = linear_model.LinearRegression()
regTime3.fit(df[["Cycle"]], df["Time3"])
regTime4 = linear_model.LinearRegression()
regTime4.fit(df[["Cycle"]], df["Time4"])
regTime5 = linear_model.LinearRegression()
regTime5.fit(df[["Cycle"]], df["Time5"])
regTime6 = linear_model.LinearRegression()
regTime6.fit(df[["Cycle"]], df["Time6"])
regTime7 = linear_model.LinearRegression()
regTime7.fit(df[["Cycle"]], df["Time7"])
regTime8 = linear_model.LinearRegression()
regTime8.fit(df[["Cycle"]], df["Time8"])
regTime9 = linear_model.LinearRegression()
regTime9.fit(df[["Cycle"]], df["Time9"])
regTime10 = linear_model.LinearRegression()
regTime10.fit(df[["Cycle"]], df["Time10"])
def predictAllAtOnce(a):
 t1 = regTime1.predict([[a]])
t2 = regTime2.predict([[a]])
t3 = regTime3.predict([[a]])
t4 = regTime4.predict([[a]])
t5 = regTime5.predict([[a]])
t6 = regTime6.predict([[a]])
t7 = regTime7.predict([[a]])
t8 = regTime8.predict([[a]])
t9 = regTime9.predict([[a]])
t10 = regTime10.predict([[a]])
print(t1,t2,t3,t4,t5,t6,t7,t8,t9,t10)
predictAllAtOnce(10000)
5.2 Predicted Charging Values –
These are the following Values of Number of Cycles and Time divisions and these values are
for Charging Values that are Upgraded with Uniform factors is 16.6 % for cycles 1 to 1000
and for 1001 cycles to 5000 cycles the degradation factor is 20 % respectively.

Table 1 Uniform degradation of charging values

Cycle Time1 Time2 Time3 Time4 Time5 Time6 Time7 Time8 Time9 Time10
1 3.8 5.23 6.4 8.2 9.9 11.3 13.1 14.7 16.3 17.8
125 3.861 5.354 6.5 8.32 9.961 11.38 13.22 14.74 16.4 17.861
250 3.922 5.478 6.6 8.44 10.022 11.46 13.34 14.78 16.5 17.922
500 3.983 5.602 6.7 8.56 10.083 11.54 13.46 14.82 16.6 17.983
750 4.044 5.726 6.8 8.68 10.144 11.62 13.58 14.86 16.7 18.044
1000 4.1 5.85 6.9 8.8 10.2 11.7 13.7 14.9 16.8 18.1
2000 4.15 5.913 7 8.85 10.325 11.775 13.75 14.95 16.875 18.275
3000 4.2 5.976 7.1 8.9 10.45 11.85 13.8 15 16.95 18.45
4000 4.25 6.039 7.2 8.95 10.575 11.925 13.85 15.05 17.025 18.625
5000 4.3 6.1 7.3 9 10.7 12 13.9 15.1 17.1 18.8
6000 4.44 6.36 7.54 9.25 10.88 12.19 14.15 15.2 17.33 19.01
7000 4.52 6.51 7.7 9.38 11.03 12.31 14.28 15.27 17.47 19.2
8000 4.61 6.66 7.86 9.52 11.18 12.44 14.42 15.34 17.61 19.39
9000 4.7 6.81 8.02 9.65 11.33 12.56 14.55 15.42 17.75 19.58
10000 4.79 6.96 8.18 9.79 11.48 12.69 14.69 15.49 17.88 19.77
 Table 2 Variable degradation of charging values

Cycle Time1 Time2 Time3 Time4 Time5 Time6 Time7 Time8 Time9 Time10
1 3.8 5.23 6.4 8.2 9.9 11.3 13.1 14.7 16.3 17.8
125 3.86 5.354 6.5 8.32 9.96 11.38 13.22 14.74 16.4 17.86
250 3.95 5.54 6.65 8.5 10.05 11.5 13.4 14.8 16.55 17.95
500 4.055 5.757 6.825 8.71 10.155 11.64 13.61 14.87 16.725 18.055
750 4.07 5.788 6.85 8.74 10.17 11.66 13.64 14.88 16.75 18.07
1000 4.1 5.85 6.9 8.8 10.2 11.7 13.7 14.9 16.8 18.1
2000 4.13 5.8875 6.96 8.83 10.275 11.745 13.73 14.93 16.845 18.205
3000 4.2 5.975 7.1 8.9 10.45 11.85 13.8 15 16.95 18.45
4000 4.26 6.05 7.22 8.96 10.6 11.94 13.86 15.06 17.04 18.66
5000 4.3 6.1 7.3 9 10.7 12 13.9 15.1 17.1 18.8
6000 4.43 6.34 7.53 9.23 10.87 12.18 14.13 15.19 17.31 19
7000 4.51 6.48 7.68 9.35 11.02 12.29 14.25 15.26 17.44 19.19
8000 4.59 6.62 7.83 9.48 11.17 12.41 14.38 15.33 17.57 19.38
9000 4.68 6.76 7.98 9.6 11.31 12.53 14.5 15.4 17.7 19.57
10000 4.76 6.89 8.14 9.73 11.46 12.65 14.63 15.47 17.84 19.76

Table 3 Variable degradation of charging values

Cycle Time1 Time2 Time3 Time4 Time5 Time6 Time7 Time8 Time9 Time10
1 3.8 5.23 6.4 8.2 9.9 11.3 13.1 14.7 16.3 17.8
125 3.875 5.385 6.525 8.35 9.975 11.4 13.25 14.75 16.425 17.875
250 3.98 5.602 6.7 8.56 10.08 11.54 13.46 14.82 16.6 17.98
500 4.04 5.726 6.8 8.68 10.14 11.62 13.58 14.86 16.7 18.04
750 4.07 5.788 6.85 8.74 10.17 11.66 13.64 14.88 16.75 18.07
1000 4.1 5.85 6.9 8.8 10.2 11.7 13.7 14.9 16.8 18.1
2000 4.17 5.9375 7.04 8.87 10.375 11.805 13.77 14.97 16.905 18.345
3000 4.22 6 7.14 8.92 10.5 11.88 13.82 15.02 16.98 18.52
4000 4.28 6.075 7.26 8.98 10.65 11.97 13.88 15.08 17.07 18.73
5000 4.3 6.1 7.3 9 10.7 12 13.9 15.1 17.1 18.8
6000 4.44 6.36 7.56 9.24 10.92 12.2 14.14 15.21 17.34 19.08
7000 4.53 6.5 7.72 9.37 11.07 12.32 14.27 15.28 17.47 19.27
8000 4.61 6.64 7.87 9.49 11.23 12.44 14.39 15.35 17.6 19.47
9000 4.7 6.77 8.03 9.61 11.38 12.56 14.51 15.43 17.73 19.67
10000 4.78 6.91 8.18 9.74 11.53 12.68 14.64 15.5 17.87 19.86

5.2 Predicted Degrading Values –

These are the following Values of Number of Cycles and Time divisions and these values are
for Discharging Values that are Degraded with Uniform degradation factor of 20 % between
cycle 1 and cycle 125, 30 % between cycle 125 and cycle 250, 35 % between cycle 250 and
500, 5 % between 500 and 750, 10 % between cycle 750 and 1000, 15 % between cycle 1000
and 2000, 35 % between cycle 2000 and 3000, 30 % between cycle 3000 and 4000, 20 %
between cycle 4000 and 5000 respectively.
 Table 4 Uniform degradation of discharging values

Cycle Time1 Time2 Time3 Time4 Time5 Time6 Time7 Time8 Time9 Time10
1 7 8 9 11 12 17 20 23 26 28
125 6.87 7.87 8.87 10.87 11.87 16.87 19.25 22 24.75 26.75
250 6.75 7.75 8.75 10.75 11.75 15.75 18.5 21 23.5 25.5
500 6.5 7.5 8.5 10.5 11.5 14.5 17 19 21.5 23.5
750 6.25 7.25 8.25 10.25 11.25 13.25 15.5 17 18.5 20.5
1000 6 7 8 10 11 12 14 15 16 18
2000 5.75 6.75 7.75 9.75 10.75 11.75 13.75 14.75 15.75 17.5
3000 5.5 6.5 7.5 9.5 10.5 11.5 13.5 14.5 15.5 17
4000 5.25 6.25 7.25 9.25 10.25 11.25 13.25 14.25 15.25 16.5
5000 5 6 7 9 10 11 13 14 15 16
6000 4.44 5.44 6.44 8.44 9.44 8.72 10.38 10.56 10.7 11.55
7000 4.06 5.06 6.06 8.06 9.06 7.63 9.14 8.97 8.74 9.39
8000 3.68 4.68 5.68 7.68 8.68 6.53 7.9 7.38 6.79 7.23
9000 3.3 4.3 5.3 7.3 8.3 5.43 6.65 5.8 4.84 5.07
10000 2.92 3.92 4.92 6.92 7.92 4.34 5.41 4.21 2.88 2.91

Table 5 Variable degradation of discharging values

Cycle Time1 Time2 Time3 Time4 Time5 Time6 Time7 Time8 Time9 Time10
1 7 8 9 11 12 17 20 23 26 28
125 6.8 7.8 8.8 10.8 11.8 16 18.8 21.4 24 25.8
250 6.5 7.5 8.5 10.5 11.5 14.5 17 19 21 22.5
500 6.15 7.15 8.15 10.15 11.15 12.75 14.9 16.2 17.5 18.65
750 6.1 7.1 8.1 10.1 11.1 12.5 14.6 15.8 17 18.1
1000 6 7 8 10 11 12 14 15 16 17
2000 5.85 6.85 7.85 9.85 10.85 11.85 13.85 14.85 15.85 16.775
3000 5.5 6.5 7.5 9.5 10.5 11.5 13.5 14.5 15.5 16.25
4000 5.2 6.2 7.2 9.2 10.2 11.2 13.2 14.2 15.2 15.8
5000 5 6 7 9 10 11 13 14 15 15.5
6000 4.5 5.5 6.5 8.5 9.5 9.15 10.81 11.13 11.46 11.54
7000 4.16 5.16 6.16 8.16 9.16 8.26 9.78 9.83 9.88 9.72
8000 3.81 4.81 5.81 7.81 8.81 7.36 8.75 8.53 8.3 7.9
9000 3.46 4.46 5.46 7.46 8.46 6.47 7.72 7.22 6.72 6.08
10000 3.12 4.12 5.12 7.12 8.12 5.57 6.69 5.92 5.15 4.26
 Table 6 Variable degradation of discharging values

Cycle Time1 Time2 Time3 Time4 Time5 Time6 Time7 Time8 Time9 Time10
1 7 8 9 11 12 17 20 23 26 28
125 6.75 7.75 8.75 10.75 11.75 15.75 18.5 21 23.5 25.25
250 6.4 7.4 8.4 10.4 11.4 14 16.4 18.2 20 21.4
500 6.2 7.2 8.2 10.2 11.2 13 15.2 16.6 18 19.2
750 6.1 7.1 8.1 10.1 11.1 12.5 14.6 15.8 17 18.1
1000 6 7 8 10 11 12 14 15 16 17
2000 5.65 6.65 7.65 9.65 10.65 11.65 13.65 14.65 15.65 16.47
3000 5.4 6.4 7.4 9.4 10.4 11.4 13.4 14.4 15.4 16.1
4000 5.1 6.1 7.1 9.1 10.1 11.1 13.1 14.1 15.1 15.65
5000 5 6 7 9 10 11 13 14 15 15.5
6000 4.41 5.41 6.41 8.41 9.41 9.11 10.79 11.14 11.5 11.54
7000 4.05 5.05 6.05 8.05 9.05 8.23 9.78 9.87 9.96 9.76
8000 3.7 4.7 5.7 7.7 8.7 7.35 8.77 8.6 8.42 7.98
9000 3.34 4.34 5.34 7.34 8.34 6.47 7.76 7.32 6.89 6.2
10000 2.98 3.98 4.98 6.98 7.98 5.59 6.74 6.05 5.35 4.42

6. Results and Discussion

The initial set of values are of 1 cycle, 1000 cycles, and 5000 cycles taken from the research
papers and values of different cycles are predicted using linear regression algorithm and
graphs are plotted for charging and discharging of thermal battery.

Color coding for different cycles is as follows:

• Blue- 1 cycle
• Green – 125 cycles
• Red – 250 cycles
• Cyan – 500 cycles
• Yellow – 750 cycles
• Maroon – 1000 cycles
• White – 2000 cycles
• Blue – 3000 cycles
• Black – 4000 cycles
• Green – 5000 cycles
In this graph, the thermal battery is being charged at a uniform rate For cycles 1 to 1000 the
degradation factor is 16.6 % and for 1001 cycles to 5000 cycles the degradation factor is 20
%.

Figure 9: Charging of thermal battery with uneven degradation

In this graph, the thermal battery is being charged at a uniform rate. Although in charging 2
contains the degradation factor of 20 % between cycle 1 and cycle 125, 30 % between cycle
125 and cycle 250, 35 % between cycle 250 and 500, 5 % between 500 and 750, 10 %
between cycle 750 and 1000, 15 % between cycle 1000 and 2000, 35 % between cycle 2000
and 3000, 30 % between cycle 3000 and 4000, 20 % between cycle 4000 and 5000.

Figure 10: Charging of thermal battery with uneven degradation

In this graph, the degradation factor of 20 % between cycle 1 and cycle 125, 30 % between
cycle 125 and cycle 250, 35 % between cycle 250 and 500, 5 % between 500 and 750, 10 %
between cycle 750 and 1000, 15 % between cycle 1000 and 2000, 35 % between cycle 2000
and 3000, 30 % between cycle 3000 and 4000, 20 % between cycle 4000 and 5000.

Figure 11: Discharging of thermal battery with uniform rate

There is a uniform rate of discharging of thermal battery. For cycles 1 to 1000 the
degradation factor is 16.6 % and for 1001 cycles to 5000 cycles the degradation factor is 20
%.

Figure 12: Discharging of thermal battery with uneven degradation

In this graph, the degradation factor of 25 % between cycle 1 and cycle 125, 35 % between
cycle 125 and cycle250, 20 % between cycle 250 and 500,10 % between 500 and 750, 10 %
between cycle 750 and 1000, 35 % between cycle 1000 and 2000, 25 % between cycle 2000
and 3000, 30 % between cycle 3000 and 4000, 10 % between cycle 4000 and 5000.

Figure 13: Discharging of thermal battery with uneven degradation

Discharge 3 contains the degradation factor of 25 % between cycle 1 and cycle 125, 35 %
between cycle 125 and cycle250, 20 % between cycle 250 and 500,10 % between 500 and
750, 10 % between cycle 750 and 1000, 35 % between cycle 1000 and 2000, 25 % between
cycle 2000 and 3000, 30 % between cycle 3000 and 4000, 10 % between cycle 4000 and
5000.

9. Conclusion

As the energy demand is growing in today’s time, the development of thermal battery is very
crucial for the energy security. In this report, the life cycle analysis of thermal battery has been
done by using the linear regression algorithm of machine learning and it has been found that
the predicted values are very close to the values extracted from the research papers and the
error percentage is limited to 15% from the experimental values of 10000 cycles which is being
provided and which is in the acceptable limit. This study will act as a base for future life cycle
analysis of the thermal battery.
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