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  • Probabilidad Segun El Teorema de Bayes

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    Yerlin Valerio
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    This document contains 6 exercises involving calculating probabilities from given data. Exercise 1 provides percentages of defective parts for 3 part types. Exercise 2 calculates conditional probabilities of fish being blue or red given being healthy. Exercise 3 calculates the probability of items being type A based on counts of types from 3 shelves. Exercise 4 calculates an overall probability of defects based on individual part type defect probabilities. Exercise 5 calculates conditional probabilities of failure given usage types. Exercise 6 calculates the probability an employee is a director given their profession.

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    This document contains 6 exercises involving calculating probabilities from given data. Exercise 1 provides percentages of defective parts for 3 part types. Exercise 2 calculates conditional probabilities of fish being blue or red given being healthy. Exercise 3 calculates the probability of items being type A based on counts of types from 3 shelves. Exercise 4 calculates an overall probability of defects based on individual part type defect probabilities. Exercise 5 calculates conditional probabilities of failure given usage types. Exercise 6 calculates the probability an employee is a director given their profession.

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    Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
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    1 views8 pages

    Probabilidad Segun El Teorema de Bayes

    Uploaded by

    Yerlin Valerio
    This document contains 6 exercises involving calculating probabilities from given data. Exercise 1 provides percentages of defective parts for 3 part types. Exercise 2 calculates conditional probabilities of fish being blue or red given being healthy. Exercise 3 calculates the probability of items being type A based on counts of types from 3 shelves. Exercise 4 calculates an overall probability of defects based on individual part type defect probabilities. Exercise 5 calculates conditional probabilities of failure given usage types. Exercise 6 calculates the probability an employee is a director given their profession.

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    © All Rights Reserved
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    of 8

    EJERCICIO 1

    PIEZAS DEFECTOSAS
    P(A) 120 1%
    P(B) 90 2%
    P(C) 90 3%

    P(A)=0.4 P(D)=3/90 0.03333333 3%


    P(B)=0.3
    P(C)=0.3
    EJERCICIO 2 P(A|H)=
    P(M|A)=0.30 P(A|H)= P(A)*P(H|A)
    AZUL P(A)=0.35 P(H)
    PECES P(H |A)=0.70
    P(A|H)= 0.35 * 0.70
    P(M|R)=0.60 0.35*0*70 + 0.65*0.40
    ROJOS P(R)=0.65
    P(H|R)=0.40 P(A|H)= 0.245
    0.505

    P(A|H)= 0.485148514851485

    P(A|H)= 49%

    P(R|H)
    P(R|H)= P(R)*P(H|R)
    P(H)

    P(R|H)= 0.65 * 0.40


    0.35*0.70 + 0.65*0.40

    P(R|H)= 0.26
    0.505

    P(R|H)= 0.514851485148515

    P(A|H)= 51%
    P(A|M)=
    P(A|M)= P(A)*P(M|A)
    P(M)

    P(A|M)= 0.35 * 0.30


    0.35*0*30 + 0.65*0.60

    P(A|M)= 0.105
    0.495

    P(A|M)= 0.212121212121212

    P(A|M)= 21%

    P(R|M)
    P(R|H)= P(R)*P(M|R)
    P(M)

    P(R|H)= 0.65 * 0.60


    0.35*0.3 + 0.65*0.6

    P(R|H)= 0.39
    0.495

    P(R|H)= 0.787878787878788

    P(A|H)= 79%
    EJERCICIO 3

    ESTANTERIA N° NC TIPO NC TIPO


    A 140 49 A 91 B
    B 130 40 A 90 B
    C 120 40 A 80 B

    390 129 261

    P(A)= 49/129
    P(A)= 0.37984496124031
    38%
    EJERCICIO 4
    D=DEFECTUOSA P(D)=
    P(A) 25% 2%
    P(B) 35% 3% P(D)=
    P© 40% 5%
    P(D)=
    P(A)*P(D|A)+P(B)*P(D|B)+P(C)*P(D|C)

    (0.45*0.02)+(0.35*0.03)+(0.40*0,05)

    0.0395 4%
    EJEJRCICIO 5
    USO FALLOS P(F)= P(A)*P(F|A)+P(B)*P(F|B)
    P(A) 45% 5% 0.0665
    P(B) 55% 8%

    P(A|F) P(A)*P(F|A) = 0.45*0.5 0.338 34%


    P(F) 0.0665
    EJERCICIO 6

    EMPLEADOS DIRECTIVO
    P(A) INGENIEROS 20% 75%
    P(B) ECONOMISTAS 15% 50%
    P(C) OTROS 65% 20%

    P(E|D)= P(A)*P(D|A)+P(B)*P(D|B)+P(C)*P(D|C)

    0.355 36%

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