As a credit risk manager, you are reqused to develop a regression equation forcredit worthness of credit applicant on the ba

of crdit risk. [8]

Months Months
M Single Married Age Years Unskilled Skilled
Customer Employed

13 12 1 1 0 23 3 1 0
25 0 1 0 0 32 1 0 1
19 119 1 1 0 38 4 0 0
13 14 1 1 0 36 2 1 0
40 45 1 1 0 31 3 0 1
11 13 1 0 1 25 1 0 1
13 16 1 0 1 26 3 1 0
14 2 1 1 0 27 1 1 0
37 9 1 1 0 25 2 0 1
25 4 0 0 0 43 1 0 1
49 0 1 1 0 32 2 0 0
11 15 1 1 0 34 2 1 0
10 14 1 0 1 26 1 0 1
25 63 1 1 0 44 1 0 1
13 26 1 1 0 46 3 1 0
31 8 1 0 0 39 4 0 0
49 4 0 0 0 25 2 0 1
13 33 1 1 0 31 2 0 1
28 116 1 1 0 47 4 0 1
7 2 0 0 0 23 2 0 1
34 16 0 0 0 22 4 0 1
13 5 0 0 0 26 4 0 1
25 23 1 0 1 19 4 0 1
37 23 0 0 0 27 2 0 0
11 15 1 1 0 39 2 1 0
22 33 1 1 0 26 3 0 1
19 58 1 1 0 50 4 0 1
49 46 1 1 0 34 1 0 1
37 24 1 1 0 23 4 0 1
19 12 1 1 0 23 2 0 1
37 7 1 1 0 46 4 0 1
31 32 1 1 0 35 3 0 1
13 2 0 0 0 28 2 0 1
16 34 1 1 0 25 4 0 1
49 46 0 0 0 36 4 0 1
5 41 1 1 0 41 1 1 0
25 1 1 0 0 54 1 0 1
9 40 0 0 0 43 2 1 0
49 42 1 0 1 33 1 0 1
13 74 1 1 0 34 3 0 1
49 0 1 1 0 39 4 0 0
25 26 1 1 0 34 3 1 0
37 60 1 1 0 30 2 0 1
31 33 1 1 0 48 2 0 1
12 1 0 0 0 19 1 0 1
7 119 1 0 1 29 2 0 1
19 3 0 0 0 26 3 0 1
17 75 1 1 0 42 4 0 1
25 8 1 1 0 30 2 0 1
19 5 1 0 1 38 4 0 1
25 5 1 0 1 21 1 0 1
16 36 0 0 0 32 4 1 0
28 6 1 1 0 35 2 0 1
22 10 1 0 0 46 4 0 1
25 28 1 1 0 37 3 0 0
37 114 1 1 0 39 4 0 0
13 16 0 0 0 29 3 0 1
19 32 1 1 0 27 3 1 0
19 5 0 0 0 22 3 0 1
37 60 1 1 0 40 2 0 1
29 10 1 1 0 44 2 1 0
11 8 1 1 0 26 4 1 0
13 46 0 0 0 57 3 1 0
19 17 1 1 0 34 4 1 0
25 4 1 0 1 47 4 0 1
16 115 1 1 0 46 3 0 1
13 31 1 1 0 38 4 1 0
31 0 0 0 0 52 1 0 0
7 0 1 1 0 34 1 0 0
25 5 1 1 0 29 4 0 1
of credit applicant on the basis
[CLO 4; PLO 4]

Low

1
0 SUMMARY OUTPUT
0
0 Regression Statistics
1 Multiple R 0.4610766
1 R Square 0.2125916
1 Adjusted R Square 9%
1 Standard Error 0.4784463
0 Observations 70
0
0 ANOVA
1 df SS MS F Significance F
1 Regression 9 3.7082049 0.4120228 1.7999266 9%
0 Residual 60 13.734652 0.2289109
1 Total 69 17.442857
1
0 Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%
1 Intercept 0.8701758 0.3621045 2.4031068 0.0193651 0.1458589
1 Months Customer -0.010236 0.0055693 -1.837991 7% -0.021377
0 Months Employed 0.0019721 0.0021691 0.9091413 37% -0.002367
0 M 0.3234875 0.2847924 1.1358712 26% -0.246182
0 Single -0.151912 0.2779816 -0.546483 59% -0.707958
0 Married -0.169794 0.3151977 -0.53869 59% -0.800283
0 Age -0.00881 0.0072705 -1.211704 23% -0.023353
1 Years 0.0050346 0.0528195 0.0953163 92% -0.10062
1 Unskilled 0.2178776 0.224625 0.9699613 34% -0.231439
0 Skilled -0.100556 0.1824024 -0.551286 58% -0.465415
1
1
1
0
1
1
1
0
1
0
1
0
0
1
1
1
0
1
1
0
0
0
1
0
1
0
1
1
0
1
1
0
0
0
0
1
1
0
1
1
0
1
0
ignificance F

Upper 95%Lower 95.0%

Upper 95.0%
1.5944926 0.1458589 1.5944926
0.0009039 -0.021377 0.0009039
0.006311 -0.002367 0.006311
0.893157 -0.246182 0.893157
0.4041339 -0.707958 0.4041339
0.4606954 -0.800283 0.4606954
0.0057335 -0.023353 0.0057335
0.1106893 -0.10062 0.1106893
0.6671945 -0.231439 0.6671945
0.2643033 -0.465415 0.2643033
 United international University
School of Business and Economics
Final Examination MBA Program
Trimester: Fall'22

Student Name Ahammad Faiaz Anik

Student ID 112 221 014

QUESTION -01
QUESTION -02
QUESTION -03 0
QUESTION -04
QUESTION -05
University

MBA Program
 in case of forecastig, what are the underlying factors induces manager to applly
A. [CLO2; PLO 1]
exponential smoothing over moving avrage? [4]

Moving Averages: Moving averages rank among the most popular techniques
for the preprocessing of time series. They are used to filter random "white noise"
from the data, to make the time series smoother or even to emphasize certain
informational components contained in the time series.
Exponential Smoothing: This is a very popular scheme to produce a smoothed
Time Series. Whereas in Moving Averages the past observations are weighted
equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as the
observation get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively
more weight in forecasting than the older observations. Double Exponential
Smoothing is better at handling trends. Triple Exponential Smoothing is better at
handling parabola trends.
Since moving average place a higher weighting on recent data than on older
data, they are more reactive to the latest price changes than exponential
smothing's are, which makes the results from EMAs more timely and explains
B. Identify some business applications in which judgmental forecasting techniques such as [CLO2; PLO 1]
historical analogy and the Delphi method would be useful. [4]

Identify some business applications in which judgmental forecasting techniques

such as historical analogy and the Delphi method would be useful.

Select all that apply.

A.
A polling company is looking to survey the opinions of political pundits to make
predictions about the​long-term ramifications of a partisan political climate.

B.
The analytics department of a baseball team uses past player data in order to
make forecasts about the locations of batted balls for an upcoming opponent.

C.
[CLO2; PLO 1]

[CLO2; PLO 1]
Scenario Summary
Current Values: Base Case Case-1 Case-2 Case-3
Changing Cells:
$G$12 8% 0% 15% 0% -10%
$G$13 25% 0% 11% -15% -10%
$G$14 10% 0% 10% 3% 15%
$G$15 -15% 0% 25% -21% 15%
Result Cells:
$B$22 78215.625 27500 52834.375 3337.5 -8462.5
Notes: Current Values column represents values of changing cells at
time Scenario Summary Report was created. Changing cells for each
scenario are highlighted in gray.
 Case-4 Case-5

5% 8%
0% 25%
-5% 10%
23% -15%

31390.625 78215.625
The following financial data have been exported from a company's financial statement and firms’ seeking your assistance for m

Average annual sales               5000 units

Average unit prices                  35
Average variable cost              12
Average Advertising Cost 3.5     
Fixed cost for the operation     70000
The research department has been assigned to predict the coming period variations based on past information and finally pro

Situation   Case-1 Case -2 Case -3

Changes of sales 15% 0% -10%
Changes of prices 11.25% -15% -10%
Changes of variable cost 10% 2.50% 15%
Changes of advertising 25% -20.50% 15%

Performa Statement
Revenue 175000
Variable Cost 60000
Advertising 17500
Fixed Cost 70000
Net Profit 27500
nd firms’ seeking your assistance for making best suitable[CLO4;
business
PLOthe4]decision for earning maximization         [8]

d on past information and finally produce the following data.

Case -4 Case -5 Base Case

5% 7.50% 0%
0% 25% 0%
-5% 10% 0%
22.50% -15% 0%

Average annual sales   5000

Average unit prices 35
Average variable cost 12
Average Advertising Co 3.5
Fixed Cost 70000
The following information has extracted from the production and marketing department.
Particulars A Average Std. DeviationSimulation
units sold 1500 1200 150 1331.5283
selling price 150 120 12.5 133.53117
variable cost 95 80 25 53.124641
fixed cost 25000

You are requested to generate simulated report for revenue, gross profit and net profit with the application of Monte-C
For report preparation, you are requested to consider the following information.
1.      The production department has estimated the average demand of the product is 1200 with a standard dev
2.      The expected average selling price of the production is 120 with a standard deviation of 12.50.
3.      The average variables cost of the product is 80 with a standard deviation of 25.

Answer:
Simulated Performa Statement
Revenue 177800.53
Variable Cost 70736.963
Gross Profit 107063.56
Fixed Cost 25000
Net Profit 82063.563

Iteration 82063.563 Descriptive Analysis Class Number

1 82063.563 Maximum 82064 82064 0
2 82063.563 Minimum 82064 82064 0
3 82063.563 Average 82064 82064 0
4 82063.563 Std. Deviat 0 82064 0
5 82063.563 82064 1000
6 82063.563 82064 0
7 82063.563 82064 0
8 82063.563 82064 0
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 [CLO 4: PLO 4]

h the application of Monte-Carlo simulation with 1000 iteration.

t is 1200 with a standard deviation of 150.

deviation of 12.50.

1200

1000

800

600

400

200

0
82064 82064 82064 82064 82064 82064 82064
2064 82064 82064 82064
The following sales data have been exported from the sales deparmtmet. Taking account of exponential
smothing with a given appropriate alpha: 0.75, 0.80, 0.85. you are requested to forecast the expected sales in
year 2023. [8]

Alpha 0.75
Year Actual data Forecast |A-F| |A-F|^2 |A-F|/A Year
2013 2400 2400 0 0 0 2013
2014 4300 2400 1900 3610000 0.4418605 2014
2015 1560 3825 2265 5130225 1.4519231 2015
2016 3600 2126.25 1473.75 2171939.0625 0.409375 2016
2017 3000 3231.5625 231.5625 53621.19140625 0.0771875 2017
2018 2500 3057.890625 557.89063 311241.949462891 0.2231563 2018
2019 4500 2639.47265625 1860.5273 3461561.99684143 0.4134505 2019
2020 3500 4034.8681640625 534.86816 286083.952927589 0.1528195 2020
2021 2500 3633.71704101562 1133.717 1285314.32908922 0.4534868 2021
2022 3500 2783.42926025391 716.57074 513473.625060264 0.2047345 2022
2023 3320.857315 #DIV/0! 2023

Alpha 0.75 0.8 0.85

MAD 1067.3886 1108.2082 1149.8779
MSE 1682346 1784985 1896251
RMSE 1297.0529 1336.0335 1377.0444
MAPE 38.28% 39.77% 41.28%

With the alpha

of exponential [CLO 4: PLO 4]
he expected sales in

Alpha 0.8 Alpha

Actual data Forecast |A-F| |A-F|^2 |A-F|/A Year Actual data
2400 2400 0 0 0 2013 2400
4300 2400 1900 3610000 0.4418605 2014 4300
1560 3920 2360 5569600 1.5128205 2015 1560
3600 2032 1568 2458624 0.4355556 2016 3600
3000 3286.4 286.4 82024.96 0.0954667 2017 3000
2500 3057.28 557.28 310560.9984 0.222912 2018 2500
4500 2611.456 1888.544 3566598.43994 0.4196764 2019 4500
3500 4122.2912 622.2912 387246.337597 0.1777975 2020 3500
2500 3624.45824 1124.4582 1264406.3335 0.4497833 2021 2500
3500 2724.891648 775.10835 600792.95734 0.2214595 2022 3500
3344.9783296 #DIV/0! 2023

With the alpha value of 0.75, we get the lowest error MAPE.
So we will accept the sales forecast for 2023 using alpha value of .75

2023 3320.8573150635
 0.85
Forecast |A-F| |A-F|^2 |A-F|/A
2400 0 0 0
2400 1900 3610000 0.4418605
4015 2455 6027025 1.5737179
1928.25 1671.75 2794748.0625 0.464375
3349.2375 349.2375 121966.831406 0.1164125
3052.3856 552.38563 305129.878707 0.2209543
2582.8578 1917.1422 3675434.04727 0.4260316
4212.4287 712.42868 507554.619189 0.2035511
3606.8643 1106.8643 1225148.5819 0.4427457
2666.0296 833.97035 695506.552647 0.2382772
3374.9044 #DIV/0!