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Lecture 1.3 - Time Value of Money Revision
Lecture 1.3 - Time Value of Money Revision
BUSINESS
SCHOOL
Week 2
Financial Mathematics Review
Part 2
Financial Mathematics:
Present Value and Mortgage Mathematics
Time value of money calculations
Present value of a single sum or annuity payment
Future value of a single sum or annuity
Mortgage loan constants
Mortgage balance calculations
Point charges and their effects on borrowing costs or yields
Annual Percentage Rate
Effective Cost of Borrowing
Net present value and IRR calculations
Refinancing decisions
Adjustable Rate Mortgage or ARM Calculations
Price Level Adjusted Mortgage
Reverse Annuity Mortgages (Future Value of Annuity)
Supportable mortgage calculations
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Introduction to the Time Value of Money
Understanding of financial mathematics is one of the core
working tools in finance.
In terms of this course it helps us understands both
capacity and well and loan conditions.
A dollar today is worth more than a dollar received in
future
In most economies we expect a return on money or capital
related to the productivity of things capital can buy
• This is the fundamental source of the real returns (not
just inflationary increases)
The required returns are cumulatively known as the
opportunity cost of capital
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Present & Future Value of a Single Sum
PV = FV / (1+r)
FV = PV (1+r)
PV is the present value
FV is future value
r is the total expected rate of return
r includes the risk free and risk premium rates
r is called “discount rate” when solving for PV
r is called “rate of return” when solving for FV
FV>PV assuming i > 0
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PV & FV over Multiple Periods of Time
General formula for PV and FV across multiple periods:
N
PV = FV / (1+r)
N
FV = PV (1+r)
If FV and PV are known the rate of return can be found by the formula:
1/N
r = (FV/PV) –1
Note that you must adjust r (as appropriate) for the frequency of
compounding
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PV of an Annuity
Annuity: stream of regular payments of equal amounts
E.g.: monthly rental payments, mortgage payments
⁄
PV = PMT
‘PMT’: equal payments occurring at the end of each of the consecutive equal
length periods of time
‘N’ is the number of payments
‘r’ is the interest rate per period of time, compounded at the end of each
period
Note that it is critical to adjust r and n for the frequency of compounding
per annum.
If the interest rate is 12% per annum, compounding monthly for a 10
year loan, then r is 1% and n is 120
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PV of Annuity (Contd.)
For payments in advance the PV formula changes to:
⁄
PV = PMT (1+r)
Expressed in simple interest annual rate terms, the annuity
formula assumes the forms:
⁄ ⁄
PV = PMT ⁄
⁄
PMT = PV
⁄ ⁄
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Mortgage Constant
‘MMC’ is the monthly mortgage constant
It is the monthly payment per dollar of loan and it includes
both interest and principal amortization.
⁄
MMC =
⁄ ⁄
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Calculating a Loan Balance
Outstanding Loan Balance (OLB) equals the present value of
the remaining loan payments
Original mortgage was for ‘T’ years at a rate of ‘i’
If ‘q’ payments have been made, the formula will be:
⁄ ⁄
OLB = PMT ⁄
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Calculating the Principal and Interest components of a
Mortgage
Example: A $150,000 30yr mortgage at 9%
Point to note: as the loan matures the interest component of each payment
declines and the principal repaid increases. The payment does not change.
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Future Value of an Annuity
FV = PMT
‘PMT’ is the payment every month
‘r’ is the interest per period (month)
‘n’ is the number of months
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More mortgage calculations on a financial
calculator
Inputs:
PV = $240,000 (Amount of Loan)
I = 8% (divide by 12, and input 0.6666667)
N = 360 (30 year loan x 12 months/year)
Solve for PMT
Result
PMT = ($1,761.03)
Note: make sure that you have cleared the values from your
previous calculation!!
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Effective Yield Calculation
Loan Amount is $240,000 with 1.5 points and prepayment expected in 10 years
without penalty
Points: The fees etc from establishing the mortgage, deducted from the
mortgage before disbursement to the borrower, expressed as a percent
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Annual Percentage Rate (APR)
When loans are held over the full amortization term the
effective borrowing costs are based on APR for annual
percentage rate
Truth in lending Act requires disclosure
If there are no point charges, APR is equal to effective
borrowing costs
APR is the yield which brings the future payment stream back
to present value such that it exactly equals the net cash
disbursed by the lender
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Points – A tool to increase Yield
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Mortgage Pricing (Contd.)
Which loan is best for a borrower depends on the expected tenure or time
they expect to hold the loan
The 7.5% loan with 7 points is better if the borrower is fairly certain they will
hold the loan for more than 10 years and if they don’t believe rates will come
down, allowing them to refinance before 10 years
If the borrower is uncertain about holding periods or future rates, the 8.6%
loan is the best choice with the lowest cost for anything under a 10 year hold
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ARM and FRM
Fixed Rate Mortgage (FRM), where the rate of interest charged remains
constant throughout the term
More common in the US
Adjustable Rate Mortgage (ARM), where the rate of interest and hence
the mortgage payment is variable due to the link with an index
More common in Australia and NZ
Spread is the amount above the index that is added to determine the
new contract rate of interest
Typically ARMs are priced at significantly lower interest rates as much
of the future interest rate risk is borne by the borrower
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ARM and FRM
Annual rate caps is the maximum increase in the rate that is
possible per year
Life time caps is the maximum total increase in the rate that is
possible during the loan term
A 1.0% to 2.0% annual rate cap is common
Typical life caps are 5% or 6% over the course of the loan, so a
loan that starts at 6% can never be higher then 11% if the life
cap is 5%
To calculate the new payment we first need to calculate the
balance of the loan at the time of the change in interest and
then we use this balance over the remaining term or N to
calculate payments at the new rate
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Choosing b/w FRMs and ARMs
With FRM interest rate risk is borne by lender
With ARMs much of the interest rate risk is borne by the borrower
Borrowers who are just able to qualify for the mortgage with little
excess in their budget to manage the risk of higher payments will
often opt for the FRM, while wealthier borrowers with few liquidity
concerns will often opt for the ARMS
Rather than lower aspirations (buy a cheaper house) many
households will start to consider taking on the risk of an ARM as rates
rise and the spread in the market between FRMs and ARMs increases
Some commentators have argued that increased levels of ARMs
being given to less sophisticated and less financially able
borrowers was an important element of the GFC
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Refinancing
Refinancing can save the borrower money if there is
a drop in mortgage interest rates
Situations when refinancing is not advisable:
Remaining term of the loan is short or expected
tenure of the new loan is short
Mortgage rates are expected to fall further
Prepayment penalties are higher than benefits
Deciding whether refinancing is profitable or not:
If the NPV of expected savings exceeds the cost
of refinancing then it is advisable and vice-versa
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