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India is projected to
become the most populous

country by 2027 surpassing

China, and host 1.64 billion

people by 2050. Also at
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current rates the world is

going to have more than

9.5 billion people by 2050.

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The fact is that by the 2030s, some States

will start transitioning to an ageing

society as part of a well-studied process

of “demographic transition”.

As the National Family Health Survey-4 (2015-16) notes,

women in the lowest wealth quintile have an average of 1.6

more children than women in the highest wealth quintile,

translating to a total fertility rate of 3.2 children versus 1.5

children moving from the wealthiest to the poorest.

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India will also nd it hard to announce a nationally mandated two-child policy

since it is a signatory to the Cairo declaration in 1994, which gives couples

the “right to decide freely and responsibly the number and spacing of their

children". Following the Cairo declaration, India announced a National

Population Policy in 2000 which focused on improving the quality of life,

degree of women’s empowerment, and expanding the available basket of

contraceptive choices.

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examples of success of the government initiatives for population control
include,

1. Making near universal awareness about family planning.

2. reducing total fertility rate from 6.0 in 1951 to 2.3 in 2018(according to UNFPA report).

3. increasing age of marriage to 21 and 18 for boys and girls respectively.

4. Increasing a literacy rate from 18% in 1951 to above 96% of primary school enrollment according to
ASER report 2018.

5. Popularizing use and enhance access to contraceptives.

6.India was the rst country to have a population control program in 1952.

Example of Iran which went on with coercive population control regime between 1980 to 2000 ended
up changing the demographics for its own bad.