PEA3063

Policies &
Economics of
Population
E-Module

milda Hashim
E
2023/2024
SEMESTER 1 SESSION 2023/2024
 A231 PEA3063 POLICIES & ECONOMICS OF POPULATION | EMILDA HASHIM

5 FERTILITY TRANSITION

5.1 LEARNING OUTCOME

At the end of this topic, you will be able to:
1) define fertility transition.
2) become familiar with fertility transition over time.
3) elaborate about the fertility rate in the world and Malaysia.
4) explain about the population momentum.

5.2 FERTILITY RELATED DEFINITION

1) Fertility refers to the number of children born to women.
2) Fecundity refers to the biological capacity to produce children.
3) Fertility is measured in a variety of ways using period data (crude birth
rate, general fertility rate, child-woman ratio, age-specific birth rates),
synthetic cohorts (total fertility rate, gross reproduction rate, net
reproduction rate), and cohort data (children ever born and birth
intentions). Here, we will focus on fertility rate.
4) Total Fertility Rate (TFR) is the average number of births per woman
during her lifetime and gives an indication of how family size is changing.
5) A TFR of 2.1 is the “replacement fertility level (rate)”.
a) In the absence of migration, a population with this TFR will eventually
stabilize, and decline if the TFR dips below 2.1.
b) This is the level at which populations would stabilize or shrink over the
long term.
6) Fertility transition is the shift from natural (and high) to controlled (and
low) fertility.

5.3 FERTILITY TRANSITION

1) The recent past has seen enormous changes in fertility rates.
2) For most of human history, fertility was high because of the need to
maintain high population in the society, especially to combat high infant
mortality.
3) The fertility transition is typically accomplished:

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a) through a later age at marriage, through older women deciding not to

have additional child.
b) through women in their prime reproductive years using effective means
of fertility control, including especially contraception and abortion.
4) Virtually all wealthy societies now have below-replacement fertility levels.
5) In almost all less developed nations in the world today, fertility rates have
declined.
6) The fertility transition represents the shift from “natural fertility” to
more fertility control; a drop in fertility at all ages, but especially at the
older ages (beyond the 30s) and younger ages (under 20).
7) Fertility transition over time has been influenced by:
a) demographic factors: increasing life expectancy, smaller family size
preference, later marriage.
b) socioeconomic factors: urbanization, female education and employment,
access to contraception and family planning.
c) cultural factors: changing gender roles, secularization, individual
aspirations.

5.4 FERTILITY RATE

1) A key determinant of the global population rate is women’s average number
of children over their lifetime – the fertility rate.
2) Fertility rates have fallen rapidly across the world in recent decades.

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3) Most people now live in countries, including Malaysia, where fertility rates
are at or below the ‘replacement level.’
4) The United Nation reports that two-thirds of people live in countries with
a fertility rate below 2.1 births per woman.
5) Replacement-level fertility (an average of two children per woman) is one
of the indicators of women’s empowerment in modern society.
6) Total Fertility Rate in the World vs Malaysia vs High Income countries
(refer graphs on page 2):
a) World
i. In 1950, the average woman in the world gave birth around 5 times.
ii. In 1980, a woman in the world had on average 4 children.
iii. In the early 2000s, a woman in the world had on average 3 children.
iv. By 2021, the average global fertility rate had fallen to 2 children
per woman.
v. Throughout 1950 until 2023, the average global fertility rate had
reduced more than half, from 5 children per woman to merely 2
children per woman.
b) High Income countries
i. In 1950, the average woman in the developed countries gave birth
around 3 times.
ii. In 1980, a woman in the developed countries had on average 2
children.
iii. Since early 2000s, a woman in the developed countries had less
than 2 children.
iv. By 2021, the average fertility rate in the developed countries had
fallen to 1.6 children per woman.
v. Throughout 1950 until 2023, the average developed countries had
consistently low fertility rate, from 3 children per woman to less
than 2 children per woman.
c) Malaysia
i. In 1950, the average woman in Malaysia gave birth around 6 times.
ii. In 1980, a woman in Malaysia had on average 4 children.
iii. In the early 2000s, a woman in Malaysia had on average 3 children.
iv. By 2021, the average Malaysian fertility rate had fallen to less than
2 children per woman.

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v. Throughout 1950 until 2023, the average Malaysian fertility rate

had reduced more than half, from 6 children per woman to less than
2 children per woman, approaching the fertility rate in high income
countries.

5.5 POPULATION MOMENTUM

1) Population momentum explains why a population will continue to grow even
if the fertility rate declines and why the number of children in the world
will not decline as rapidly as the fertility rate.
2) Population momentum is defined as the ratio of the size of the population
at that new equilibrium level to the size of the initial population.

3) Population momentum occurs because population growth are determined by:

a) the number of births per woman.
b) the number of women in the reproductive age.
4) Eventually, when the fertility rate reaches the replacement rate and the
population size of women in the reproductive age bracket stabilizes, the
population achieves equilibrium and population momentum comes to an end.

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5) Therefore, there is the momentum of a population to increase for a while,

even though TFR is reduced to 2 or less. It will not stop instantly.
6) It is only when both the fertility rate and the number of women levels off
that population momentum stops. And this is when global population growth
will come to an end.
7) From page 4 (global),
a) the average global fertility rate had reduced more than half, from 5
children per woman to merely 2 children per woman throughout 1950
until 2023.
b) the number of women in reproductive age has tripled since 1950.
c) the fertility rate reaches the replacement rate and the population size
of women in the reproductive age bracket stabilizes, the population
achieves equilibrium and population momentum comes to an end in 2050.
8) From page 5 and 6 (Malaysia),
a) the average Malaysian fertility rate had reduced more than half, from
6 children per woman to merely 2 children per woman throughout 1950
until 2023.
b) the number of women in reproductive age has tripled since 1950 from
around 2 million to 11 million (assuming women consist of half of
Malaysian population and women of reproductive age consist of two-
third of population).
c) the fertility rate reaches the replacement rate and the population size
of women in the reproductive age bracket stabilizes, the population
achieves equilibrium and population momentum comes to an end in 2067
with total population at 42 million.

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A231 PEA3063 POLICIES & ECONOMICS OF POPULATION | EMILDA HASHIM