Gondwana Research 113 (2023) 237–246

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Gondwana Research
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/gr

The impact of economic complexity, technology advancements, and

nuclear energy consumption on the ecological footprint of the USA:
Towards circular economy initiatives
Syed Tauseef Hassan a, Ping Wang b, Irfan Khan c,e, Bangzhu Zhu d,⇑
a
School of Business, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
b
School of Management, Jinan University, Guangzhou 510632, China
c
School of Management and Economics, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing 100081, China
d
School of Business, Guangxi University, Nanning 530004, China
e
Department of Business Administration, Visiting Faculty, Federal Urdu University of Arts, Science, and Technology, Islamabad, Pakistan

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Article history: The circular economy decouples economic activity from finite resource consumption, creating a resilient
Received 29 September 2021 system that can tackle global challenges such as climate change, biodiversity loss, waste, and pollution.
Revised 3 October 2022 Nuclear energy has been designated as one of the primary concerns of energy sector modernization
Accepted 8 November 2022
because it allows for significant reductions in dangerous material emissions into the environment.
Available online 14 November 2022
Handling Editor: Avik Sinha
Therefore, nuclear energy and improved technologies may become critical growth areas aligned with cir-
cular economy principles. We use Dynamic Autoregressive Distributive Lag (DARDL) and Kernel-based
Regularized Least Squares (KRLS) to analyze United States data from 1985 to 2016 empirically. The
Keywords:
DARDL result shows a positive relationship between ecological footprint and economic complexity,
Ecological Footprint increasing short-term environmental costs. However, nuclear power generation and improved technol-
Economic Complexity ogy significantly reduce ecological concerns. Economic complexity is explored in this work in more
Nuclear Energy nuanced terms, emphasizing the importance of considering the external environment when implement-
Improving Technology ing different economic activities. Policy implications, study limitations, and future research directions are
Circular Economy discussed.
USA Ó 2022 International Association for Gondwana Research. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction deterioration are ecological footprints (EFP) and an increase in

Climate change severely threatens humanity’s progress and
existence, including food shortages, wildlife extinction, and harsh
weather. Environmental and economic goals must be balanced in
both developed and developing countries. On the one hand, the
recent fast rise of global economies has allowed them to build
essential infrastructure, relieve poverty, and enhance residents’ liv-
ing standards. On the other side, in the quest for fast economic
growth, global economies have compromised natural capital,
resulting in major environmental challenges such as energy
resource exploitation, biodiversity loss, land degradation, and
water and air pollution. To achieve low-emission economies, we
need global collaboration and coordinated actions. Climate change
has a detrimental influence on society, the economy, the ecology,
and the environment. The fundamental causes of environmental
⇑ Corresponding author.
E-mail addresses: Irfan.Khan@bit.edu.cn, Khan.Irfan4032@yahoo.com (I. Khan),
wpzbz@126.com (B. Zhu).
resource utilization (United Nations, 2018). The EFP monitors and
defines anthropogenic stress on the environment caused by the
human population and the biosphere’s ability to regenerate.
Because EFP is an aggregate measure, we employ it as an indicator
of environmental quality in this work (Wackernagel, 1996).
The United States struggles with meeting anticipated national
energy efficiency, reducing carbon emissions, utilizing renewable
energy sources, and achieving a decarbonized economy. Among
industrialized countries, the ecological footprint (EFP) of the Uni-
ted States is 122 % greater than the natural shortage
(Wackernagel and Beyers, 2019). The increasing environmental
impact in America may be caused by excessive energy consump-
tion (fossil fuels, oil, coal, and gas), biological capacity imports,
and biological depletion. Global Footprint Network (GFN) esti-
mates that 71 % of the US EFP represents a higher-risk economy
(Global Footprint Network, 2019). Furthermore, the United States
is rated as the second-highest nation globally in terms of EFP,
behind only China. As a result of these considerations, this study
selects the United States as the site for empirical research to create

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gr.2022.11.001
1342-937X/Ó 2022 International Association for Gondwana Research. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
S. Tauseef Hassan, P. Wang, I. Khan et al.
relevant and conclusive policies regarding ecological preservation
that may serve as the supportive groundwork for developing
countries.
According to the International Energy Agency (2022), achieving
zero global environmental pollution by 2050 would require a com-
plete overhaul of energy production, transportation, and consump-
tion patterns. In this sense, the nuclear energy industries have
become a significant emphasis in climate change policy, providing
long-term prosperity for both industrialized and rising nations.
Similarly, nuclear energy, although always a complex subject
regarding safety, effectiveness, and sustainability is crucial in
achieving energy transition, conservation, and emissions reduction
goals. To reduce environmental pollution, nuclear power has fewer
negative externalities than any other kind of energy, emits equiv-
alent levels of carbon dioxide as wind energy, and emits less than
solar energy (World Nuclear Association., 2019). Additionally,
nuclear power plants use the least land compared to fossil fuels
and other renewable energy sources, freeing up more space for
urban and agricultural growth as the world’s population expands.
Furthermore, the resource used, uranium, has a low environmental
impact due to its high density, reducing the pollution brought on
by its mining, transportation, use, and disposal. Nuclear energy
provides various advantages for enhancing people’s lives in terms
of direct and indirect employment generation (OECD, 2018).
Reducing the environmental footprint improves health and pro-
duces inexpensive, clean energy with lower Levelized costs than
fossil (EIA, 2022; OECD, 2020). Furthermore, nuclear power
reduces environmental pollution by increasing energy efficiency
and generating low-carbon energy, creates minimal technical
waste that can be repurposed, and protects vital natural resources
(OECD, 2021). The circular carbon economy is aided by many recy-
clable wastes from decommissioned nuclear power stations (Gior-
gia Marino, 2021).
The governments are actively believed to play a role in transi-
tion and circular carbon economy techniques to manage natural
resources more sustainably, reduce waste, conserve biodiversity,
maintain environmental quality, and achieve economic sustain-
ability. However, more complicated and sophisticated export
goods may imply higher energy consumption, leading to increased
energy demands and added pollution. Investment in clean energy
technologies, the development of alternative energy sources (i.e.,
sustainable energy and nuclear power sources), and the innovation
of knowledge-intensive aspects of the economy must be given
preference by investing in fixed capital and productive human cap-
ital (i.e., smart grids and bioenergy) to slow energy consumption
growth and increase resource efficiency. The Economic Complexity
Index (ECI) lies at the heart of the countryside explanation for the
disparity in per capita income between rural and urban areas.
This association is present throughout the preliminary stages of
economic growth. The manufacturing process produces less pollu-
tion in the environment for essential agrarian economies. In subse-
quent phases of economic growth, the economics of
industrialization and product variety become more complex. In
this circumstance, low and medium ECI promote the deterioration
of the ecosystem. After a specific threshold has been met, increased
ECI may help avoid the worsening of the environment by develop-
ing technology, knowledge, and human capital. The medium and
high ECI offers cleaner technology and information required to
enhance environmental norms. The more sophisticated methodol-
ogy allows the present work to produce more trustworthy and
resilient findings against certain breaches of fundamental assump-
tions on econometric estimates (Romero and Gramkow, 2021).
The present study contributes to this field of study in three
ways. Firstly, in the context of the United States, none of the stud-
ies have evaluated the influence of nuclear energy on the EFP for
the circular economy. This study will support the decision-
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Gondwana Research 113 (2023) 237–246
making map for the government of the USA and throughout the
world to establish nuclear energy policy from a circular economy
perspective. Secondly, several works have used various economic
indicators to explain environmental changes. None of them have
combined economic complexity and technology improvement,
which better measures energy efficiency and technological knowl-
edge in the United States. Finally, this work utilizes two new esti-
mation methods combining economics and machine learning
qualities. Jordan and Philips (2018) developed the simulation
Dynamic Autoregressive Distributive Lag (DARDL) technique. The
DARDL simulation for the spurious effects of the examined variable
is thus carried out and finds several problems. Further, an evalua-
tion and creation of causal linkages among the variables are carried
out using a machine learning method to strengthen the assertions
made in this research. The kernel-based regularized least squares
(KRLS) derivatives are also discussed. Accordingly, to the authors’
knowledge, this study is the only one in literature utilizing the
DARDL simulation and KRLS that examines the connection
between EFP, ECI, NEC, and IMT for the case of the USA.
The remainder of the paper is organized as follows. The relevant
literature is discussed in Section 2. The data collection, model, and
technique are described in Section 3. The empirical results are pre-
sented in Section 4, and the conclusion is presented in Section 5.
2. Literature review
Global warming is becoming a global problem as governments’
concerns grow. It is widely recognized as a risk to sustainable
development and has emerged as a critical topic for policy action
(Alola et al., 2019; Destek and Sarkodie, 2019). Different studies
have investigated the relationship between emissions and eco-
nomic development in the energy economics literature since the
later part of the 20th century. In recent studies, several parameters,
such as renewable resources and the impact of ECI on environmen-
tal contamination, have also been discussed. This investigation
only examines a few of these studies and divides the literature into
three categories (i) economic complexity and environmental pollu-
tion, (ii) nuclear energy and environmental pollution (iii) improv-
ing technology and environmental pollution. Many studies have
investigated the connection between pollution and sustainable
development in the past decades in the environmental literature.
Accordingly, the present study concentrates on other variables
ignored in previous research, such as the ECI, nuclear energy usage,
and technological improvement.
2.1. Economic complexity index and environmental pollution nexus
Currently, many studies investigate economic complexities on
environmental ramifications. Researchers generate different find-
ings based on various sample data and estimation methods. Sev-
eral works have examined the link between environmental
pollution and economic complexity (Ahmad et al., 2021), showing
that ECI decreases environmental pollution. Buhari et al. (2020)
examined the ECI nexus by looking at 55 nations, determining that
environmental pollution is prevalent and the environmental Kuz-
nets curve (EKC) hypothesis holds in the high-income states. Their
findings also revealed that ECI simultaneously increases pollution
and lowers pollutants in high-income countries. Environmental
policies and sustainability may be affected by democracy (Ahmed
et al., 2022a,b). It has been shown that increasing the economic
complexity of the economy is one of the most effective ways to
reduce greenhouse gas emissions and carbon footprints (Ahmed
et al., 2022a,b; Murshed et al., 2022). Boleti et al. (2021) found that
the ECI helps decrease total pollution while improving certain
ambient air indicators, such as delicate matter and greenhouse
S. Tauseef Hassan, P. Wang, I. Khan et al.
gas. Neagu and Teodoru (2019) found that the impact of ECI on
greenhouse gas emissions in 25 European Union countries is
increasing. Adedoyin et al. (2021) found a relationship between
environmental pollution and economic complexity, suggesting that
environmental contamination is increasing in 118 countries. The
connection between ECI, income levels, and four pollution indica-
tors was studied by Swart and Brinkmann (2020). Therefore, ECI
strongly correlates with a country’s per capita income and wellbe-
ing (Neagu and Teodoru, 2019; Phuc Nguyen et al., 2020). The
authors found that the ECI square is statistically negligible and that
the ECI lowers trash production while increasing forest fires in Bra-
zil. Yilanci and Pata (2020) determined that ECI and energy use had
an increasing effect on the EFP in China.
2.2. Nuclear energy and environmental pollution nexus
Nuclear energy is an important element in product and service
manufacturing and development. However, in the current litera-
ture, nuclear energy is the primary driver of environmental deteri-
oration (Cany et al., 2018; Hu et al., 2021; Khan and Ahmad, 2021).
It is challenging to forecast the dynamic presence of the nuclear-
carbon nexus (Hassan et al., 2021). The research results indicate
that nuclear energy increases environmental emissions, emphasiz-
ing the advantages of mitigating climate change of additional
nuclear power within Indian energy systems. Nuclear energy can
meet growing energy demands and clean the climate. However,
previous studies’ divergent results are unclear on its environmen-
tal impact. Renewable energy consumption is statistically insignif-
icant in explaining variations in CO2 emission levels. Alternatively,
economic growth initially increases CO2 emissions but decreases
them later; thus, the Kuznets curve hypothesis is valid (Ahmed
et al., 2021; Nathaniel et al., 2021).
The literature on the environmental impact of nuclear energy is
divided. Some research has shown that nuclear energy is good for
the environment (Danish et al., 2021a). A study conducted in China
used an input distance function and found that nuclear energy is a
better alternative to renewable energies than fossil fuels because
nuclear energy has a more reductive effect on CO2 emissions (Xu
et al., 2018). However, its impact on the ecosystem is not apparent,
as previous research findings differ. Lee et al. (2017) confirmed the
EKC hypothesis for France, Germany, and Switzerland, indicating
the beneficial impact of mitigating nuclear contamination.
On the other hand, some scientists do not support nuclear
energy. For example, according to the findings of Sarkodie and
Adams (2018b), nuclear technology increases pollution in African
countries due to radioactive waste and the ineffective waste man-
agement systems in place. Mahmood et. (2019) stated that the
ARDL model summarizes the negative impacts of nuclear power
on emissions because of the lack of efficiency in activities, technical
incompetence, and the growth restrictions needed to handle
nuclear waste on global infrastructure (Azam et al., 2022). On the
contrary, Jaforullah and King (2014) determined that nuclear
energy deteriorates the quality of the environment in the USA.
2.3. Improving technology and environmental pollution nexus
Many studies have demonstrated that technological progress
reduces carbon and leads to sustainable development. Chen et al.
(2020) noted that domestic technological development reduces
carbon pollution in China with significantly negative technological
progress interaction with carbon pollution. Ahmed et al. (2020)
found that significant technology developments will assist Brazil,
Russia, India, China, and South Africa (BRICS) nations in meeting
their economic progress targets and reducing pollution. By consid-
ering Chinese technical advancements, Shahbaz et al. (2020) exam-
ined the study of public–private energy investment partnerships
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Gondwana Research 113 (2023) 237–246
and carbon pollution, finding that innovation improves air quality
by reducing carbon pollution. Similarly, Khan et al. (2020) showed
that ecological technology might decrease carbon emissions from
the G7 Member States. In contrast, Cheng et al. (2019) showed that
ecological patents in BRICS economies promote carbon pollution
using the panel ordinary least squares (OLS) and quantitative
regression. As far as technological innovation is concerned, there
is a moderate relationship between technological innovation and
ecological footprint when it comes to the relationship between
technological innovations and ecological footprint (Ahmed et al.,
2021; Jahanger et al., 2022). Investment in research and develop-
ment and investment in renewable energy resources are some
ways in which we can improve the environment by investing in
research and development and renewable energy sources (Ma
et al., 2021; Zeraibi et al., 2021).
Töbelmann and Wendler (2020) predicted that ecological tech-
nologies reduce carbon emissions while general technologies do
not, further demonstrating that environmental innovation is much
more active in advanced economics than in less developed coun-
tries in reducing carbon emissions (Qin et al., 2022). Developing
nations must construct advanced communication networks to par-
ticipate in the competitive worldwide business attraction (Rehman
et al., 2021; Usman et al., 2021). Using non-linear ARDL, Ullah et al.
(2021) found that the patent’s positive and negative shocks have
small short-term asymmetric impacts. Still, the trademark’s posi-
tive and negative shocks substantially influenced environmental
degradation in the short term. In Pakistan, these results have been
transformed into long-run asymmetric impacts. Furthermore,
nuclear energy and innovation reduce carbon emissions in African
countries (Alola et al., 2021). It is observed that both technical
innovation and energy costs are Granger causes of energy use. As
a result, Denmark’s study pursues a conservative energy strategy
based on technological innovation and energy costs to achieve
energy security and environmental protection (Murad et al., 2019).
The literature above outlines several significant research gaps
that must be addressed to meet environmental reduction targets.
Current work analyzed from previous literature shows that no
research focuses on nuclear energy, improving technology, and
economic complexity in the United States for the circular economy.
Furthermore, this work uses the most up-to-date time series
methodologies and innovative methods for short- and long-run
outcomes.
3. Materials and methods
3.1. Theoretical framework and model
Wackernagel and Rees (Wackernagel, 1996) define Earth’s nat-
ural resources and carrying capacity as used by humans to calcu-
late the EFP of a capability. According to Lin et al. (2018), the
impact of human-oriented resource usage on the environment is
explained by the biosphere’s regeneration capacity, measured in
resource consumption. Since its introduction in 1990, EFP has been
controversial because it addresses both the demand and supply
sides of human requirements. The demand-side analysis measures
human desire to utilize farmland, forests, land usage, pollutant
emission, and water pollution. On the supply side, enough natural
resources are available to meet consumer demand (Danish et al.,
2020).
Economists have shown that a complex economy may antici-
pate economic development and explain competence-oriented,
knowledge-based, and sophisticated manufacturing. Furthermore,
it is a more accurate indicator of economic structure since it con-
siders a variety of productive outputs (Nguyen, 2022). Improving
technology and institutional development are essential for increas-
S. Tauseef Hassan, P. Wang, I. Khan et al.
ing productivity (Hidalgo et al., 2007). Thus, a productive capacity
based on both knowledge and skills is defined by economic com-
plexity (Boleti et al., 2021). For the ECI index to be computed, only
exports are used to measure productivity. More complex items are
produced in greater numbers within a smaller area in economies
with higher ECI. In comparison, economies with lower ECI produce
more straightforward commodities in smaller numbers within a
more constrained area (You et al., 2022). Economic complexity is
a combination of economic expansion and environmental pollu-
tion. Environmental impact is minimized due to the focus of the
less complicated economies on producing agricultural items and
basic minerals. In contrast, economies with a wide range of pro-
ductivity and high levels of complexity put an enormous strain
on the environment (Kamguia et al., 2022). Finally, economies
are more environmentally friendly due to their complexity and
advancements in technology and knowledge.
Several global projects have focused on industrial growth and
safety of use problems in the nuclear energy industry (Danish
et al., 2021b). Alongside decreasing carbon fuel use, producing
electricity, using carbon capture systems, and constructing renew-
able resources, international policies that outline major strategies
for combating climate change have recently focused on utilizing
nuclear energy as a valid alternative to the emissions reduction
of the global energy system (Hassan et al., 2020). As a result,
nuclear power may help achieve the goals of the most recent inter-
national climate change alliance, the United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC.) Paris Conference of the
Parties (COP21) (Mahmood et al., 2019b). Similarly, technologies
related to the environment, including capturing, storing, and
removing carbon emissions from the atmosphere caused by human
production and consumption, effectively decrease CO2 concentra-
tion (Iqbal et al., 2019). Moreover, energy-related technologies pro-
vide solutions for reducing carbon emissions while satisfying
human energy and material demands and stimulating renewable
resources for electricity generation. Based on the above considera-
tions, the following econometric model in Eq. (1) was developed:
EFP ¼ f ðECI; NEC; IMTÞ
Here, EFP represents ecological footprint, ECI denotes economics
complexity index, NEC indicates nuclear power energy, and IMT
represents improving technology. All parameters in the model
were transformed to their logarithm for data smoothing and devel-
opment of homoscedasticity. It also helps to provide more precise
and dependable outcomes than the basic linear structure. Thus, to
continue from Eq. (1), Eq. (2) expresses the log-linear econometric
form as follows:
log ðEFPt Þ ¼ a0 þ a1 log ðECIt Þ þ a2 log ðNECt Þ þ a3 log ðIMTt Þ þ et
where a0 indicates the constant value, and the subscript t refers
to time (t = 1985–2016). a1, a2, and a3 are the logEFP, logNEC, and
logIMT slope coefficients. Finally, et is the phrase stochastic error
term.
3.2. Data collection
The present study utilizes annual data from the United States
from 1985 to 2016. The data of the EFP collected from the GFN1
was measured with global hectares per capita. Nuclear energy was
calculated in millions of tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe) and was
acquired from the World Energy 2019 of British Petroleum.2 ECI rep-
resents economic complexity, and the data were collected from the
1
Please see: https://data.footprintnetwork.org/#/country.
2 3
Please see: https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics.
Gondwana Research 113 (2023) 237–246
Atlas media database (AMD), which included detailed information
about exports, imports, product complexity, and economic complex-
ity. The World Data Indicator (WDI)3 provided statistics on improv-
ing technology as assessed by residents and non-residents. The
variables are specified in the present study. Table 1 presents the
descriptive statistics of the parameters examined transformed into
logarithms. The conversion of the logarithmic form is supported to
obtain stable differences and clarify designs in the data information.
In addition, log variance improves the model specification since log
coefficients for changing rates may be decoded. According to these
findings, the data only include properly distributed variables. The
results from the descriptive statistics indicate no additional analyti-
cal problem.
3.3. Method
3.3.1. The dynamic autoregressive distributed lag simulation (DARDL.)
Jordan and Philips (2018) have identified the new DARDL simu-
lations, and researchers have utilized them in their studies (Danish
et al., 2021a; Khan and Ahmad, 2021; Zhang et al., 2021). The
DARDL approach implies a single integration order that must be
maintained and integrated into the specified selected variables.
The DARDL simulation models may be utilized if the research vari-
ables are co-integrated. The DARDL simulation model can posi-
tively and negatively electronically validate and estimate graphs,
while the other independent variables remain unchanged. The pre-
dicted process framework for the dynamic simulation model is fin-
ished. For the 5000 parameter vector simulations, the researchers
used the multi-variation of normal distributions for a DARDL sim-
ulation model is express in the Eq (3).
D ln ðEFP Þt ¼ a0 þ b1 ln ðEFP Þt1 þ b2 ln ðECIÞt þ h1 ln ðDECIÞt1
þb3 ln ðNEC Þt þ h2 ln ðDNEC Þt1 ð3Þ
þb4 ln ðIMT Þt þ h3 ln ðDIMT Þt1 þ lt
where D shows the difference and a0 indicates constant value.
The long-term coefficients are b1, b2, b3, and b4, while the short-
ð1Þ term coefficients are h1, h2, h3, and h4, respectively; lt represents
the error term of the estimated model; and t is denoted as the
duration of yearly observations.
3.3.2. Kernel-Based regularized least squares approach
This study employs KRLS, an econometric machine-learning
technique. Unlike traditional econometric techniques, KRLS offers
point-specific derivatives, average marginal hypotheses, and unbi-
ased, reliable estimates (Ferwerda et al., 2017; Sarkodie and
Owusu, 2020). The KRLS procedure further extends previous
machine learning methods with challenges to misspecification
rather than statistical conclusions, offering changeable and inter-
ð2Þ pretable parameters with an undetermined functional form during
regression and classification. The KRLS estimator is useful for
evidence-based analysis that includes knowledge about the data
generation process and the model-driven interpretation of the
cause, prediction, and lack of data imputation.
Following the equation above, we can write the model in the
following form as a vector:
2 3
kðx1 ; x1 Þ kðx1 ; x2 Þ    kðx1 ; xN Þ
2 3
6 .. 7 c1
6 kðx ; x Þ . 7
6 2 1 76 7
y ¼ Kc ¼ 6 74 c 2 5 ð4Þ
6 .. 7
4 . 5 cN
kðxN ; x1 Þ kðxN ; xN Þ
KRLS model put a penalty term to minimize fitting bias as
follows:
Please see: https://databank.worldbank.org/.
240
S. Tauseef Hassan, P. Wang, I. Khan et al. Gondwana Research 113 (2023) 237–246

Table 1
Data description.

Variables Definition Mean Min Max Std.dv

logEFP The collective impact of human activities is referred to as the ecological footprint, which can be evaluated in terms of 0.9767 0.9055 1.0182 0.0340
the area of bio-productive land.
logECI Included detailed information about export, import, product complexity, and economic complexity. 1.6347 1.3016 1.8794 0.1615
logNEC Nuclear energy consumption use as clean source for nuclear electricity production. 0.7930 0.4216 0.9095 0.1481
logIMT The improving technology data measure through patent applications (residents and non-residents). 0.8321 0.7620 0.8476 0.0194

X
argmin ðV ðf ðxi Þ; yi ÞÞ þ kRðf Þ ð5Þ 4.2. Discussion of the DARDL approach
f 2H i

The pointwise marginal effects can be summarized using expec- Table 4 shows the long-run and short-run effects on EFP of
tations as follows: logECI, logNEC, and logIMT. The present study explores the simula-
tion effect of explanatory variables on EFP. First, the economic
! complexity has a significantly positive relation to EFP. The ECI, rep-
c
@y 2 X X jjxi xj jj2  
ðdÞ ðdÞ
EN ¼ ci e r2 xi  xj ð6Þ resenting the degree of expertise and expertise needed in manufac-
ðdÞ
@xj r2
j i turing exported products (Pata, 2021), may simultaneously
improve productive efficiency, boost the economy, and assist in
reducing the environmental footprint. The results are consistent
with Can and Gozgor (2017). In particular, ECI is concerned with
4. Results discussion
extending the basket for complex goods, encouraging them to
reach new nations, and forcing them to obey environmental laws.
4.1. Unit root analysis and cointegration approach
The United States exports the world’s best goods while importing
primary products that maintain it at the top economic complexity
The DARDL application mandates that the dependency variable
level. The effect of ECI is essential for sustainable development and
stationary level should be I (1) and that the independent variables
must not exceed 1; for instance, I (0) or I (1). In this regard, various
unit root tests, such as the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and
Table 3
Phillips-Perron (PP), have been conducted to verify the stationary Cointegration test.
values of the variables. Table 2 shows that the dependent variable
Model F-statistics
is I (1), and there is no stationary level beyond the initial difference
between the separate variables. logEFP = logECI, logNEC, logIMT 6.2110
After fulfilling the first condition, the next stage is to confirm Significance I(0) I(I)
10 % 2.37 3.2
the long-term connection between the variables, including ecolog- 5% 2.79 3.67
ical footprint, economic complexity, nuclear energy use, and tech- 1% 3.65 4.66
nological improvement. Adopting the procedure described by P-value 0.028 0.000
Sarkodie & Adam (2018a) and Bekun et al. (2019), Pesaran et al. Model T-statistics
logEFP = logECI,logNEC,logIMT 4.8366
(2007) proposed the bound-testing technique coupled with the
Significance I(0) I(I)
critical values approach posited by Kripfganz & Schneider (2019) 10 % 3.775 2.700
to verify co-integration across variables using p-value approxima- 5% 4.015 3.828
tion results, which are described in Table 3. This approach provides 1% 6.554 5.276
higher F-statistic and T-statistic values for all statistical importance P-value 0.000 0.000

levels than the upper limits and a higher p-value with K = 3 as the
number of parameters in the fitted model. This technique gener-
ates higher F-statistic and T-statistic and greater than upper limits
values for both the statistic meaning level and the p-value with Table 4
K = 3 as the number of parameters in the model. Significant values DARDL results.
are selected based on their uniqueness to produce strong and trust-
Regressors Coefficiet P value
worthy findings in the limited sample size (Kripfganz and
logEFP 0. 2503*** 0.039
Schneider, 2019). The results of the binding tests are reported in
DlogECI 0.0158* 0.002
Table 3. The F-statistic and T-statistic values are larger than the logECI 0.0980*** 0.031
p-value values in the USA at 1 %. The result indicates a co- DlogNEC 0.0179*** 0.083
integration connection among the investigated variables. There- logNEC 1.1998*** 0.044
fore, the short-term and long-term characteristics of DARDL may DlogIMT 0.5524*** 0.069
logIMT 0.0312* 0.000
be assessed. Constant 0.5840* 0.000
R2 0.80
sim 5000
Table 2 F-statistics 8.871 0.000
Stationarity tests. Diagnostic Tests
DW 1.325
Level 1st Deference
v2 LM 0.891[0.201]
Variables ADF PP ADF PP v2 ARCH 1.151[0.956
logEFP 0.7333 0.6864 6.0875* 6.0888* J-B Normality 2.342[0.220]
logECI 1.3949 1.5625 3.6856* 3.7273* v2 RESET 2.480[0.712]
logNEC 1.0161 3.5948 5.6291* 5.0161*
**
logIMT  2.0418 3.6267 9.8258* 8.9598* For 5% significance.
***
For 10% significance.
Note: * indicate 1% level of significance. *
For 1% significance.

241
S. Tauseef Hassan, P. Wang, I. Khan et al.
can assist in accomplishing the long-term growth goal (Romero
and Gramkow, 2021). The policymakers propose that the ECI objec-
tive can be realized with nuclear energy and technological
improvement. To encourage companies to implement the circular
economy idea, policies that facilitate uniform usage and recycling
of goods (or materials) are necessary. Furthermore, effective imple-
mentation of the economic complexity promoting circular econ-
omy concept necessitates that stakeholders understand the
possible economic advantages, social inequities, waste reduction,
decreased environmental load, and material reuse. Businesses,
society, and the environment all benefit from a circular economy.
An economy based on circular principles is regenerative by
design as opposed to a linear model that takes, makes, and wastes.
As a result of moving toward a more circular economy, there may
be benefits such as a reduction in environmental pressure, an
increase in competitiveness, stimulation of innovation, and an
increase in economic growth (Economy, 2022). The integration of
the findings of this study into the policy-making process may assist
in achieving the SDG objectives, the decent labor, growth related to
SDG8, environmental mitigation associated with SDG13, and
energy production and consumption responsible for SDG7. Such a
strategy of emphasizing fundamental goods would therefore
decrease import-related emissions. Climate change and its impacts
are particularly pertinent to SDG 13. Anthropogenic greenhouse
gas emissions cause climate change. Surface temperatures are ris-
ing globally, precipitation patterns are changing, and sea levels are
rising due to climate change. In the aftermath of resource scarcity,
food and water will become more scarce, affecting people’s liveli-
hoods, particularly women, children, and the elderly. Global warm-
ing must be kept to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels to meet the
UNFCCC goal of limiting global temperature rise to 2 °C below
pre-industrial levels. By the second half of the century, global net
emissions must not exceed one trillion tonnes of cumulative car-
bon, implying global net zero emissions.
The findings indicate that the long-run coefficient of nuclear
energy consumption (NEC) is significant and negative. The present
study’s findings suggest that nuclear energy may be an essential
source for long-term energy development and environmental poli-
cies that satisfy increasing global energy needs. Efforts must be
taken to push the government and businesses to boost investment
in nuclear supply and overcome the restrictions on nuclear energy
consumption to secure environmental protection goals. Improve-
ments in the infrastructure of nuclear manufacturing should also
be implemented as soon as possible. Moreover, the nuclear energy
option must be kept open under the Paris Agreement for parties
wishing to integrate into it and enhance the cost-effectiveness of
their measures to reduce climate change. Additionally, nuclear
power production needs exceptional safety precautions due to
the severe irreversible effects on people and the environment. In
a circular economy, radioactivity is used for medical diagnosis,
treatment, industrial processes and research, as well as for power-
ing nuclear power stations. The stakeholders engaged in develop-
ing and delivering energy infrastructure should be acquainted
with these principles and practices to produce sustainable energy
infrastructure that reduces waste, CO2 emissions, and raw materi-
als, among other things, to promote a circular economy. Essen-
tially, the circular economy seeks to maximize the use of
materials, keep products and materials in use, and design them
to be recycled back into the economy, reducing waste and aiding
in the energy transition (Pennington, 2022).
Finally, the long-term increasing technology has a negative and
statistically significant effect on EFP, implying that IMT will
enhance environmental quality in the United States. The beneficial
effect of improved technologies in reducing the environmental
footprint may be illustrated by the increasing number of environ-
mental patents (Zafar et al., 2021). This creates a growing tendency
242
Gondwana Research 113 (2023) 237–246
to register patents linked to the environment as a significant factor
in decreasing pollution in the United States in recent years. As one
of the most creative nations, the United States is an excellent
example of how environmental pollution reacts to innovation.
These results on technological improvements parallel those of
Danish and Ulucak (2021). Nuclear energy production innovation
supporting laws, taxes, subsidies, and regulations promotes clean
energy usage in economic cycles, contributing to efficient develop-
ment (Danish and Ulucak, 2021). Moreover, in the age of emerging
technologies and their convergence across global value chains, a
circular economy seeks to change the way societies design, pro-
duce, and consume goods and services in order to create a regener-
ative economic cycle that is more sustainable. Technological
innovations in circular economy, physical, and biological technolo-
gies contribute to the development of circular business models by
increasing efficiencies, reducing waste, enabling new market
entrants, gaining insights, and allowing companies to move away
from traditional limited-resource materials (World Bank Group,
2020).
4.3. Simulation graph
Plotting variations in explanatory variables due to regressors is
one of the features of DARDL simulations. Fig. 1 exhibits economic
complexity. As previously addressed in Table 4, the long-term esti-
mates of DARDL explain that the positive and negative shock wors-
ens environmental damage. The graph indicates that increasing
economic complexity increases environmental footprint costs.
The results reveal that, since complex goods use sophisticated
and cost-effective technology, there is a need to increase economic
complexity to achieve resource utilization efficiency (Arslan et al.,
2022; Hassan et al., 2022a,b; Zahoor et al., 2022). Fig. 2 depicts
nuclear energy’s negative and positive shocks, supported in the
USA to improve environmental quality. Nuclear energy is a low-
cost, climate-resilient, high-energy–density, and reliable power
source. It also assures economic stability, enhances energy secu-
rity, decarbonizes the environment, and keeps the heat and dan-
gerous materials produced during the process within the fuel,
ultimately reducing its carbon footprint. Likewise, positive and
negative shocks of technological improvements help mitigate envi-
ronmental degradation, as exhibited in Fig. 3. The data indicate
that countries need to continue changing and adapting to enhance
technology, which will help to improve the economy’s learning
process. Therefore, environmental laws and regulations must
bridge the gap between carbon reduction and promoting more
environmentally friendly patents via US technological
development.
4.4. Kernel-based regularized least squares
A machine learning technique reinforces the claims provided in
this work to evaluate and create causal connections between the
variables. In this part, derivatives using KRLS were calculated to
identify the causal impact between logECI, logNEC, and logIMT.
The total forecast accuracy of the model (Table 5) is 0.845 and
explains 84.5 % of the variations in the environmental footprint
by explanatory factors. Average marginal impact data show that
the mean marginal effects of the EFP on the explanatory variables
are 0.82 %, 0.33 %, and 0.21 % for ECI, NEC, and IMT, respectively.
The probability value of ECI variable at the level of 1 % is signifi-
cant, while the NEC and IMT p-value is insignificant. In addition,
the long-term impacts of variation on nuclear energy and technol-
ogy improvement are evaluated by assessing the point-specific
marginal effects and derivatives (Fig. 4 and Fig. 5).
S. Tauseef Hassan, P. Wang, I. Khan et al. Gondwana Research 113 (2023) 237–246

Fig. 1. (-1, +1) simulation graph of ECI.

Fig. 2. (-1,+1) simulation graph of NEC.

Fig. 3. (-1, +1) simulation graph of IMT.

5. Conclusion and practical implementations a system’s material circularity, such circularity should also be
sustainable for the environment, economy, and society. For that
The Circular economy is projected to be the best road map to reason, the major contribution of this work is the implementation
long-term growth. While most circular strategies aim to improve of the new variables, such as economic complexity, and other

243
S. Tauseef Hassan, P. Wang, I. Khan et al. Gondwana Research 113 (2023) 237–246

Table 5
KRLS pointwise derivatives.

logEFP Avg. SE T P>t P.25 P.50 P.75

logECI 0.082172 0.018123 4.534 0.000 -0.01249 0.06622 0.216825
logNEC -0.033213 0.029137 1.140 0.262 -0.074586 -0.019759 0.026598
logIMT -0.215995 0.249756 0.865 0.393 1.10921 -0.225413 0.547449
Diagnostics
Lambda 0.05299 Sigma 3.000 R2 0.8458 Obs. 32
Tolerance 0.032 Eff.Df 13.07 Looloss 0.2062

Note: (* and **) represent 1% and 5%, respectively. Average marginal effect is stand for (AVE.), standard error is indicating (S.E), 25th, 50th, and 75th percentile shows (P.25,
P.30 and P.75).

controllable factors, such as technological improvement and

nuclear energy. The current study examines the improvement of
EFP in the United States from the latest data set from the years
1985 to 2016. This work uses sophisticated econometric methods,
including the Dynamic Autoregressive Distributed Lag (DARDL)
model and kernel-based regularized least squares (KRLS). The
DARDL procedure displays an economic complexity simulation
graph that intensifies the environmental cost. The projected out-
come of nuclear energy consumption and improving the technol-
ogy simulation graph address environmental problems (Liu et al.,
2022a; Zhang et al., 2022). Similarly, a machine learning approach
measures and develops causal connections between variables. In
this part, derivatives using KRLS have been calculated to establish
the causality connection between the variables investigated. Based
on the preceding explanation, this work offers practitioners some
helpful suggestions to manage the environmental condition
properly.
Fig. 4. Pointwise marginal effect of IMT.
Given the empirical evidence, the investigation proposes the
following policy implications in response to evidence of economic
complexity. First, US officials must consider the structure and com-
plexity of the product when developing energy and economic poli-
cies (Mirza et al., 2022). Such creative methods may assist in
achieving the country’s national policy obligations concerning a
greener and cleaner environment and climate change objectives.
The study also contends that the US declaration of the withdrawal
from the Kyoto Protocol may be an anti-environmental action
affecting future generations in that country (Anwar et al., 2022).
The US is one of the leading exporters of coal and mineral deposits,
causing environmental concerns. Therefore, the Paris Agreement
and environmental measures cannot harm the environment or
impact the economy. Promoting circular economy initiative, given
its low carbon content, favorable lifetime environmental impact,
and the viability of long-term solutions for managing nuclear
materials and wastes, nuclear energy should be incorporated in
future sustainable financing schemes (Liu et al., 2022b; Zahoor
et al., 2021). The manifesto contains values and principles that
can be used by American policymakers to design, implement, and
evaluate a circular economy that is sustainable. Waste and Fig. 5. Pointwise marginal effect of NEC.

resource overexploitation are global challenges, and circular econ-

omy measures must be integrated into global agendas for sustain-
able development and climate change. In this way, governments
and industries will be more motivated to take responsibility for
their actions. Nuclear power stations have been a glaring example
of resilient infrastructure during the COVID-19 issue. High safety,
operational flexibility, and ongoing learning from significant past
events make nuclear energy resilient. Nuclear power facilities are
created with defense-in-depth concepts in mind, including preven-
tion, protection, and mitigation (Khan et al., 2022).
Secondly, the United States has fostered scientific and technical
innovation in advanced nuclear energy under the direction of the
revolution in energy policy and energy technology. The findings
of the analysis have significant policy suggestions. Firstly, nuclear
energy may be seen in the execution of long-term energy plans
244
as a dependable and clean energy source for sustainable economic
objectives. The role of clean energy transition strategies of nations
and the task of reducing environmental deterioration should be
evaluated. Governments that see nuclear energy as part of their
clean energy plans must create fair competition on the ground,
invest in new nuclear energy technology, and modernize their
nuclear facilities’ safety requirements (Bilal et al., 2022; Khan
et al., 2021). Since the nuclear fading scenario is conceivable in
the future because of the aging nuclear fleet of most countries,
technical and functional improvements are critical to comply with
additional financial investments that follow strict regulatory and
operational standards. Secondly, the societal issues around the
usage of nuclear power should also be examined. Greater involve-
S. Tauseef Hassan, P. Wang, I. Khan et al.
ment is needed to integrate economies and markets at regional and
global levels to encourage green investment in energy, green tech-
nology, and sustainable manufacturing.
Besides these results and their potential repercussions, the
authors carefully show that the present research is subject to some
limitations that must be addressed. First, the scope of this study is
restricted to just one measurement of EFP. However, several addi-
tional indicators, such as CO2 intensity, CO2 emissions from elec-
tricity and heat generation, and CO2 emissions from liquid fuel
usage, could also be employed in future studies from the circular
economy perspective.
CRediT authorship contribution statement
Syed Tauseef Hassan: Visualization, Validation. Ping Wang:
Supervision. Irfan Khan: Methodology. Bangzhu Zhu: Supervision.
Declaration of Competing Interest
The authors declare that they have no known competing finan-
cial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared
to influence the work reported in this paper.
Acknowledgement
We sincerely appreciate the financial assistance provided by the
Jiangsu Province Postdoctoral Funding, Project No.
(2191552100101), and the National Natural Science Foundation
of China, Project No. (71974077).
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