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A new functional relationship model for circular variables

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Siti Zanariah Satari Abdul Ghapor Hussin

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Pak. J. Statist.
2014 Vol. 30(3), 397-410

A NEW FUNCTIONAL RELATIONSHIP MODEL

FOR CIRCULAR VARIABLES

S.Z. Satari1, A.G. Hussin2, Y.Z. Zubairi3 and S.F. Hassan3

1
Faculty of Industrial Sciences & Technology, Universiti Malaysia
Pahang, Kuantan, Malaysia. Email: zanariah@ump.edu.my
2
Faculty of Defence Sciences and Technology, National Defence
University of Malaysia, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.
3
Centre for Foundation Studies in Sciences, University of Malaya,
Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.

ABSTRACT
A new functional relationship model for circular variables which is an extended
version of a circular-circular regression model proposed by Down and Mardia (2002) is
developed in this paper. Both the dependent and independent variables in the model are
subjected to errors. The parameters estimation of the model is done by minimizing the
negative value of the log-likelihood function. Model verification and its behavior are
examined using simulation study with random data. We also derived a Fisher Information
Matrix of parameters with the variance and covariance in this new model. As an
illustration, a wind direction data obtained using two tools, HF radar  x  and anchored
buoy  y  is considered. It is shown that the estimator has small bias thus suggesting the
superiority of the new proposed model.

KEY WORDS
Circular variables; concentration parameter; error-in-variables model; Fisher
information matrix; functional relationship model; wind direction.

1. INTRODUCTION
In the late nineteenth century, the linear model in classical regression problem is
extended to the models with error in both the response and explanatory variables. This
type of model is known as error in variables (EIV) or measurement error model. There
are two types of EIV models, namely functional relationship model and structural
relationship model. According to Casella and Berger (2002), a functional relationship
model is a conditional version of the structural relationship model. Sufficient theory on
parameter estimation of the model are given and described in many references such as by
Fuller (1987), Casella and Berger (2002) and Chernov (2011).
The linear functional relationship model can also be extended to circular variables in
addition to continuous linear variables. The functional relationship model for circular
variables was first introduced by Hussin (1997) and is called unreplicated linear
functional relationship model. Later, Hussin (2003) improved the model by finding the
estimated error of the concentration parameters for any λ value using the asymptotic
© 2014 Pakistan Journal of Statistics 397
398 A new functional relationship model for circular variables

properties of the Bessel function. In 2005, Hussin extended the model for replicated
observations and considered the Fisher information matrix of parameters. Recently,
Hassan et al. (2010a) obtained the parameter estimation for the unreplicated model using
the maximum likelihood method with the assumption that error concentration parameter
is equal.
The simplest linear functional relationship model for circular variables perhaps is
proposed by Caires and Wyatt (2003) in which the value of slope parameter with  is
fixed to be one. In 2010a, Hussin et al. improved the model by deriving the asymptotic
covariance matrix of the model using Fisher information matrix and developed an outlier
detection procedure.
Also, Hussin (1998) developed an unreplicated complex linear functional relationship
model for circular variables by extending the Laycock’s (1975) complex linear regression
model. Also in 2009, Hussin et al. proposed a simultaneous circular functional
relationship model. Hussin et al. (2010b) improve the model by obtaining the maximum
likelihood estimation of parameters iteratively with suitable initial values and derived the
variance and covariance of parameters using Fisher information matrix. Also in 2010b,
Hassan et al. proposed an imputation method to handle the missing values that may occur
in the model.
Based from the literature, researchers have shown that the linear functional
relationship model for circular variables can be applied in diverse areas. In this paper, we
focused on the Down and Mardia’s (DM) circular-circular regression model as the
fundamental model and attempt to extend to a new functional relationship model. To our
knowledge, similar works have not been published in any literature.
In 2002, Down and Mardia proposed a one-to-one correspondence between the
independent angle and the mean of dependent angle employs the Mӧbius circle mapping
for complex variables. The DM model is given by
1 1
tan        tan  u    , (1)
2 2
where ν is dependent random angle, u is the fixed independent angle, ω is a slope
parameter in the closed interval [-1, 1] and α and β are angular location parameters.
Equation (1) describes a one-to-one relationship between u and v where   0 with the
following unique solution,

 1 
    2 tan 1  tan  u     . (2)
 2 

2. THE FUNCTIONAL RELATIONSHIP MODEL FOR DM

Suppose we have circular random variables X and Y with the observe value
xi   ,  and yi   ,  for i  1,  , n , respectively where E  xi   X i and
E  yi   Yi . Assume that the pairs of observation  xi ,yi  are measured with errors
i  VM  0,   and i  VM  0,   , respectively where i and i are independently
S.Z. Satari et al. 399

distributed with von Mises distribution. Thus for any fixed independent angle X i , the
functional relationship model can be written as xi  X i  i and y i  Yi  i where

 1 
Yi    2 tan 1  tan  X i     . (3)
 2 
Given that Yi is dependent random angle, ω is a slope parameter in the closed interval
[˗1, 1], while  and  are angular location parameters.

Also note that, if the slope parameter is assumed to be   1 , then this model may be
simplified to a linear form

Yi      X i (4)

which somewhat similar with the functional model proposed by Caires and Wyatt (2003).
Setting the slope parameter with a fixed value of   1 may be helpful to make sure that
the model is symmetric and overcome the difficulty in parameter estimation. However
the model may not be able to describe a variety of behavior of the model with different
slope values. This paper attempts to estimate all the parameters for a general linear model
and their corresponding behavior.
By assuming that the ratio of the error concentration parameters for above model is
   ,   0 , is fixed and known, then the log-likelihood function for a given
observations  x, y     x1 ,y1  ,  ,  xn ,yn   can be written as

log L  , , , , X 1 ,  , X n ,  x, y  
n
 2n log  2  n log  I 0      n log  I 0        cos  xi  X i 
i 1

n    1 
   cos  yi     2 tan 1  tan  X i      . (5)
  2   
i 1  

3. PARAMETERS ESTIMATION
There are  n  5 parameters to be estimated, namely , , , ,  and incidental
parameters X1 ,  , X n . For estimation purposes, we assume that   1 indicating that
   . Therefore, the log-likelihood function may be simplified as


log L , , , , X1 ,  , X n ,  x, y  
n
 2n log 2  2n log  I0       cos  xi  X i 
i 1
n    1 
   cos  yi     2 tan 1  tan  X i     . (6)
i 1    2 
400 A new functional relationship model for circular variables

By differentiating the above likelihood function with respect to  and equating to

zero, the maximum likelihood estimator ̂ of  can be obtained as follows

I1  ˆ 
I 0  ˆ 

 ˆ ˆ , ˆ , 
ˆ , Xˆ 1 ,  , Xˆ n 
1 n n   1  1   
   cos  xi  X i    cos  yi     2 tan  tan  X i        (7)
2n i 1 i 1    2    

Also, let the maximum likelihood estimator ̂ of the precision parameter  is defined
explicitly by
ˆ  , , , X 1 ,  , X n 

1 n n   1  1   
   cos  xi  X i    cos  yi     2 tan  tan  X i        . (8)
2n i 1 i 1    2    

Estimation of parameters  , , , X 1 ,  , X n  in this model cannot be obtained in a

mathematically closed form from the maximum likelihood estimator method, as the
solution to the derivative function is quite cumbersome. Nevertheless, the estimated

parameters ˆ , ˆ , 
ˆ , Xˆ ,  , Xˆ
1 
may be obtained by minimizing the negative value of
n

the log-likelihood function in (6) using numerical approximation, for example using the
ms function in SPlus statistical package with a given set of initial values 0 , 0 , 0 and
X 10 ,  , X n 0 which correspond to the maximum value of precision parameter  . The
initial values are obtained by calculating the precision parameter  for all possible pairs
of , ,  and Xˆ ,  , Xˆ in pre-specified sets of parameters values namely    ,  ,
1 n

   ,  ,    1,1 and X 10  x1 ,  , X n 0  xn .

Here, we used the approximation as proposed by Hassan et al. (2012) to estimate the
I1  ˆ 
concentration parameter of the model. Thus, by assuming that  A  ˆ  , the
I 0  ˆ 
estimation of error concentration parameter  can be obtained by
 AS 1  w  w  0.6137
ˆ   (9)
 AL  w 
1
w  0.6137
where
1 n     
  1  1 ˆ
 
n
w   cos xi  Xˆ i   cos  yi   ˆ  2 tan  ˆ tan X i  ˆ     ,
2n  j 1 j 1    2    
w w3 w5
AS1  w     ,
2 16 96
S.Z. Satari et al. 401

and
1 1 1
AL1  w   1    .
2 w 8 w 2 8 w3
Equation (9) may be solved by finding the roots of the polynomial function, for
example, using the polyroot functions that are available in SPlus statistical package.
Note that in the linear case, the normal distribution model is consistent if we define
ˆ  2 2 (Kendall and Stuart, 1973). Thus, to overcome the inconsistency of ̂ in the
2

circular case, we propose a corrected estimator of  by setting   ˆ 2 using the fact

that for large  , a random variable with a von Mises distribution with zero mean
direction and concentration parameter  is approximately distributed as a random
1
variable with a normal distribution with zero mean and variance  2  (Caires and

Wyatt, 2003; Hassan et al., 2010a). Thus, we have ˆ  2 in von Mises distribution.
Simulation results in the following section provide numerical evidence that  gives a
good approximated value for  .
In addition, Wald statistical test can be used to test the relationship between u and v
(Down and Mardia, 2002). In this case, the null hypothesis is stated by   0 and the
Wald statistical test is given by

ˆ  0
 Z (10)
se  
ˆ 2

where 0  0 and se   ˆ  is standard error of ̂ . Furthermore, the goodness of fit for the
proposed model may be checked by observing the von-Mises quantile plot for both
circular residuals of the data set and can further be validated if a small value of Watson
U 2 test and Kuiper’s V test (Hassan et al., 2010a; Hussin et al., 2010b) is obtained. For
both statistical tests, the null hypothesis tested assumes that the samples are drawn from
the von Mises distribution.

4. VARIANCE-COVARIANCE MATRIX
In this section, we consider the Fisher information matrix of the parameters which, in
turn, will be used to find the variance and covariance for each parameter. Suppose the
log-likelihood function with known parameters  , , , , X 1 ,  , X n  is written as

l  , , , , X 1 ,  , X n  x, y  
n n
 2n log  2  2n log  I 0        cos  xi  X i     cos  yi  Yi  (11)
i 1 i 1

 1 
where Yi    2 tan 1  tan  X i     .
 2 
402 A new functional relationship model for circular variables

Then, second partial derivatives for log-likelihood function and their negative
expected values may be obtained using the facts that

E cos  xi  X i    A    , E sin  xi  X i    0,

E cos  yi  Yi    A    , E sin  yi  Yi    0, (12)

Therefore, it can be shown that the Fisher information matrix I  Iij   is given by
C11 0 
I T ,
 0 C22 

where C11  A    B  X 1 ,  , X n , , ,    n  3   n  3 square matrix,

is a
C22  I n4 n4  2nA '    is a scalar matrix and 0T   0, 0,, 0 is 1  n  3 row matrix.
The elements of the matrix B  X 1 ,  , X n , , ,   are bij  b ji , i  j  1,  , n  3 with

bij  1   Yn  X
2
, i  j  1,  , n,
n

bij  0 , i  j , i  1,  , n, j  1,  , n,
b i  n 1   Yi  X , i  1,  , n,
i

b i  n  2    Yi  X  Yi  , i  1,  , n,
i

b i  n  3  Yi  X Yi  , i  1,  , n,
i

n
b n 1 n 1  n , b n 1 n  2    Yi  ,
i 1
n n
b n 1 n  3   Yi  , b n  2  n  2    Yi  ,
2

i 1 i 1
n n
b n  2  n  3   Yi  Yi  , b n 3 n  3   Yi  .
2

i 1 i 1

Thus the variance and covariance for each set of parameters may be given by,

   
1 1
cov Xˆ 1 ,  , Xˆ n , ˆ , ˆ , 
ˆ  B Xˆ 1 ,  , Xˆ n , ˆ , ˆ , 
ˆ (13)
 A   

1 A   
var  ˆ   , A '     1  A2     , (14)
2nA '    

 
cov ˆ ,   cov  ˆ ,    cov  
ˆ ,    0 . (15)
S.Z. Satari et al. 403

6. SIMULATION STUDY
Simulation study has been carried out using the SPlus statistical package to assess
the accuracy and biasness of the proposed model. We generated random samples of size
n  30, 50,100 and 120 respectively from the von Mises distribution for the circular
 
variable X with circular error  and  . The values of X follows the VM  , 2  . For
2 
circular angular error  and  , the values are chosen from VM  0,   and VM  0,  
with a set of concentration parameter given by     10,15, 30 and 50 respectively.
Then, based from the generated random samples X,  and  , we calculated the values of
the observe variables x and y using the new functional relationship model with fixed
values of   1.5,   1.5 and   0.5 respectively.

Note that, in this model,  and  are circular variables while  and  are
continuous. Let s be the number of simulation. Thus, the following computations were
carried out in the simulation study.

(a) Biasness for  and 

Let  be a generic for  and  . Then,
i) Circular Mean,
 1  S 
 tan   if S  0, C  0,
 C 
 1  S 
ˆ   tan     if C  0,
 C 
 1  S 
 tan    2 if S  0, C  0,
 C 
n n
where C   cos i , S   sin i .
i 1 i 1

ii) Circular Distance, d      ˆ  

  cos  ˆ     sin  ˆ 
1 2 2
iii) Mean Resultant Length, R  j j
s
(b) Biasness for  and 
Let w be a generic for  and  . Then,
1
i) Mean, wˆ   wˆ j
s
ii) Absolute Estimated Bias, AEB  wˆ  w
404 A new functional relationship model for circular variables

1
 
2
iii) Estimated Root Mean Square Errors, ERMSE   wˆ j  w .
s

6.1 Simulation Result

The simulation results with s  5000 for each set of parameter values are shown in
Tables 1-4. Table 1 shows the simulation results for biasness and accuracy of  . Table 2
shows the simulation results for biasness and accuracy of  . Similar conclusions may be
drawn from Table 1 and Table 2 as it can be seen that the value of circular distance d
which represents the bias is relatively small regardless how large the sample size n and
the error concentration parameter  . As sample size and error concentration parameter
increased, the value of mean resultant length R which represents the accuracy of the
parameter gets closer to one. These results clearly indicate that the estimators have small
bias and good accuracy. It can be concluded that ̂ is a good estimator of  while ̂ is a
good estimator of  .

Table 3 shows the simulation results for biasness of  . It can be seen that, the mean
of ̂ gets closer to the true value of  with the increase of sample size n and increase of
the error concentration parameter  . Similar pattern can be seen from the values of
absolute estimated bias (AEB) and estimated root mean square error (ERMSE) in which
AEB and ERMSE both became smaller with increasing values of  and  . Thus, these
findings clearly suggest that ̂ is a good estimator of  .
Table 4 shows the simulation results for biasness of  estimated using the polyroot
method. The results clearly indicate that division by 2 is a good correction factor for the
error concentration parameter  . The mean of  gets close to the true value of  with
the increase of sample size n and error concentration parameter  . It is worthwhile to
note that as sample size increases, the values of AEB and ERMSE also decrease. This
suggests that the larger the sample size, the better the approximation. Thus, it can be seen
that  is a good estimator of  . Note that, similar findings are also obtained for the
similar sets of  and n with different values of , , and  respectively.

7. APPLICATION TO WIND DIRECTION

As an illustration, the Humberside wind direction data obtained using two tools, HF
radar (x) and anchored buoy (y) is considered. A total of 125 measurements are collected
along the Holderness Coastline, Humberside coast of the North Sea, United Kingdom in
October 1994 over 22.7 days. The scatter plot for the data with the fitted functional
relationship line as shown in Figure 1, suggests that there is a linear functional
relationship between the data obtained from the HF radar (x) with the anchored buoy (y).
Also from Table 5, it can be seen that ˆ  0.226, 0.294, 0.924   0.984 which suggests a
strong linear relationship between the two data sets.
S.Z. Satari et al. 405

 1 
Hence, Y  0.294  2 tan 1 0.924 tan  X  0.226   is the estimated functional
 2 
relationship model for this data set. Consequently, the Wald test for   0 has
z  15.294 with p  value  0.001 . Thus it can be seen that at significance level 0.001,
the data show a strong correlation.
Also from the von Mises quantile plot shown in Figure 2, it is worthwhile to note that
each circular residual are independently distributed and follows the von Mises
distribution as the data are well scattered along the straight line in the plot. Further, we
calculated the value of Watson U 2 test and Kuiper’s V test using ORIANA software to
validate the goodness of fit for the model. It is shown in Table 6, the values of U 2 and V
test for each circular residual are relatively small indicating that the null hypothesis is not
rejected. Thus, there is enough evidence to conclude that the samples are drawn from the
von Mises distribution.

8. CONCLUSIONS
The proposed new functional relationship model is an extension of Down and Mardia
circular-circular regression model. It is shown from simulation study and application to
real data set that all the estimators have small bias and good accuracy. Also, it is
ˆ
proposed that   gives a good approximation value for  . Estimates obtained from a
2
practical real data illustrates the potential usefulness of the proposed model in describing
the relationship between two circular variables.

9. ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
The authors wish to thank National Defence University of Malaysia
(FRGS/1/2012/ST06/UPNM/01/1) and University of Malaya (RG 239-12AFR) for the
research grant in undertaking this research.

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S.Z. Satari et al. 407

Table 1:
Simulation Result for ̂ (True Value of   1.5,   1.5,   0.5 )
Performance
n   10   15   30   50
Indicator
30 1.479 1.483 1.483 1.490
Circular 50 1.482 1.486 1.488 1.493
Mean 100 1.490 1.495 1.496 1.496
120 1.491 1.496 1.496 1.497
30 2.092×10² 1.733×10² 1.686×10² 0.953×10²
Circular 50 1.780×10² 1.409×10² 1.196×10² 0.730×10²
Distance, d 100 1.003×10² 0.464×10² 0.414×10² 0.358×10²
120 0.927×10² 0.379×10² 0.356×10² 0.348×10²
30 0.803 0.861 0.929 0.955
Mean Resultant 50 0.890 0.929 0.967 0.979
Length, R 100 0.950 0.968 0.985 0.992
120 0.960 0.974 0.988 0.993

Table 2:
Simulation Result for ̂ (True Value of   1.5,   1.5,   0.5 )
Performance
n   10   15   30   50
Indicator
30 1.485 1.489 1.492 1.495
Circular 50 1.492 1.493 1.494 1.496
Mean 100 1.495 1.497 1.497 1.498
120 1.496 1.498 1.498 1.498
30 1.546×10² 1.141×10² 0.774×10² 0.550×10²
Circular 50 0.798×10² 0.720×10² 0.648×10² 0.407×10²
Distance, d 100 0.484×10² 0.338×10² 0.269×10² 0.201×10²
120 0.426×10² 0.241×10² 0.183×10² 0.181×10²
30 0.941 0.959 0.978 0.986
Mean Resultant 50 0.966 0.978 0.989 0.993
Length, R 100 0.984 0.989 0.995 0.997
120 0.987 0.991 0.996 0.998
408 A new functional relationship model for circular variables

Table 3:
Simulation Result for ̂ (True Value of   1.5,   1.5,   0.5 )
Performance
n   10   15   30   50
Indicator
30 0.436 0.459 0.482 0.488
50 0.465 0.479 0.489 0.493
Mean
100 0.477 0.486 0.494 0.496
120 0.479 0.487 0.494 0.497
30 0.064 0.041 0.018 0.012
Absolute 50 0.035 0.021 0.011 0.007
Estimated Bias
(AEB) 100 0.023 0.014 0.006 0.004
120 0.021 0.013 0.006 0.003
30 0.144 0.106 0.066 0.048
Estimated Root
Mean Square 50 0.095 0.071 0.045 0.034
Error 100 0.061 0.046 0.031 0.023
(ERMSE)
120 0.056 0.042 0.028 0.021

Table 4:
Simulation Result for  (True Value of   1.5,   1.5,   0.5 )
Performance
n   10   15   30   50
Indicator
30 11.456 17.694 35.750 60.502
50 10.809 16.415 32.889 54.871
Mean
100 10.307 15.568 31.247 52.117
120 10.193 15.441 30.899 51.705
30 1.456 2.694 5.750 10.502
Absolute 50 0.809 1.415 2.889 4.871
Estimated Bias
(AEB) 100 0.307 0.568 1.247 2.117
120 0.193 0.441 0.899 1.705
30 4.266 6.135 12.244 20.626
Estimated Root
Mean Square 50 2.563 3.799 7.649 12.567
Error 100 1.503 2.350 4.705 7.938
(ERMSE)
120 1.363 2.068 4.205 7.079
S.Z. Satari et al. 409

Fig. 1: Scatter Plot of HF Radar (x) and Anchored Buoy (y) for Humberside
Wind Data with Fitted Functional Relationship Line

Table 5:
Parameters Estimation of Humberside Wind Data
Parameter Estimate Standard Error
̂ 0.226 0.860
̂ 0.294 1.658
̂ 0.924 0.060
̂ 15.878 1.398436
ˆ  0.226, 0.294, 0.924   0.984
 410 A new functional relationship model for circular variables

Fig. 2: Von Mises Quantile Plot of Circular Residuals

Table 6:
2
Watson U Test and Kuiper’s V Test for Circular Residuals
Type of Test and Test
p-value
Circular Residuals Statistics
 8.839 < 0.005
Watson U 2
 8.434 < 0.005
 9.851 < 0.01
Kuiper’s V
 9.406 < 0.01

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