Environmental history in the context of sustainability

Course Systems Integration & Sustainability

Ton Schoot Uiterkamp

December 9, 2019

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 Overview
• Introduction

• Environmental History (mainly)1550 – present

• Case: (Extra) Greenhouse effect and climate change

• Concluding remarks

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 Historic component often overlooked in sustainability debate

Yet:
Lock-in, path-dependence, collective memories,
cultural biases etc.

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Time-dependent assessment methodologies

Time-dependent assessment methodologies

history forecasting

Past Present Future

hindcasting backcasting
 Two prototypes in environmental discourses

- Cassandras pessimists

- Cornucopeans optimists

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 Current Issues in Environmental History

1. Biotic and abiotic factors influencing the past and the present

2. Influence of techno-economic and psycho-social factors on

biological and geographical issues

3. Ideas and perceptions of nature e.g. sustainability and

environmental consciousness

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IPAT equation

I= P x A x T

Impact = Population X Affluence x Technology

Ehrlich and Holdren (1971)

 In current environmental history more emphasis
on ecological consequences of human actions
than on ecological impacts on historical events

“PAT” I > I “PAT”

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 Environmental History (mainly) from 1550 - present

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 3000 years of acting unsustainably in China

Mark Elvin (born 1938)

1996

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 Environmental problems already existed
in Classical Greece (400 BC) and Rome

J. Donald Hughes (1932-2019)

1994
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 Environmental Impact Assessment ( EIA) started > 450 yrs ago

Georgius Agricola (Georg Bauer) (1494-1555)

De Re Metallica (1556) ( in 1912 translated by Herbert Clark and Lou Henry Hoover)

Before mining starts, miners must investigate:

- Geographical situation (eg. mountain, valley)

- Natural conditions (eg. forest, river)
- Water
- Roads
- Meteorology
- Climate
- Right of ownership
- Neighbours (NIMBY!)

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 300 yrs ago : how to manage biomass sustainably

Hannss Carl von Carlowitz (1645- 1714)

“Sylvicultura Oeconomica” (1713) : “Sustainable use of renewable resources”

Seven reasons for wasting wood:

1. Too much wood in buildings
2. Too much forests cut for dairy farming
3. Houses too big
4. Fire wood wasted in kitchens
5. Iron woodstoves less efficient than stone stoves
6. Only straight tree stems used
7. Insufficient planting of new trees

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 Start of economics about 250 yrs ago
Adam Smith ( 1723-1790)

1776

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 Planet Earth ~ 1800 : 510 million km²
Start industrial revolution in UK
World population about 1 billion

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 Start population studies > 220 yrs ago

Thomas Robert Malthus (1766 – 1834)

An Essay on the Principle of Population (1798)

An Essay on the Principle of Population,

as it Affects the Future Improvement of Society

Population growth geometric ~ar2

Food production arithmetic ~ar
 Start agricultural science and systems studies > 180 yrs ago

Liebig’s Law of the Minimum: Liebigs Barrel (1840)

Justus von Liebig (1803-1873)

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 Steady state economics first formulated about 170 yrs ago

John Stuart Mill (1806-1873)

1848

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 Start of modern conservation movement ~160 yrs ago

George Perkins Marsh (1801 – 1882)

1864

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 Start resource economics ~ 160 yrs ago
William Stanley Jevons (1835 – 1882)

1865 The Coal Question: An Inquiry Concerning the

Progress of the Nation and the Probable Exhaustion
of Our Coal-Mines.

“British industrial growth relied on cheap coal and

the increasing cost of coal, as deeper seams were
mined, threatened economic stagnation”.

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 Start environmental chemistry ~ 140 yrs ago

Robert Angus Smith (1817 – 1884)

1872

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Fear of famine 100 yrs after Malthus (world population ~ 1.6 billion)

“England and all civilised nations stand in deadly peril

of not having enough to eat”

“The fixation of atmospheric nitrogen is a discovery

awaiting the genius of chemists”

Sir William Crookes (1832- 1919)

Presidential Address to the British Association

for the Advancement of Science 1898

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Start industrial production of nitrogen compounds ( e.g. fertilizers) ~ 110 yrs ago

Fritz Haber and Carl Bosch (1912)

Haber–Bosch process

N2 + 3 H2 → 2 NH3

Fritz Haber (1868- 1934) Nobel Prize in Chemistry 1918

Carl Bosch (1874-1940) Nobel Prize in Chemistry 1931

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 Start solar energy > 100 years ago

1912

Giacomo Luigi Ciamician (1857- 1922)

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First environmental studies ( milieukunde) textbook in the Netherlands ~ 85 yrs ago
Lourens Baas Becking (1895-1963)
Professor of botany
University of Leiden 1930-1940

1934

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Since July 16, 1945( explosion first atomic bomb)
we are living in the Anthropocene

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 Neo- Malthusian worldview ( world population ~2.5 billion)

William Vogt (1902- 1968)

1948

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 First outlook world oil supply > 60 yrs ago
Peak oil concept

1956

Marion King Hubbert (1913- 1989)

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 First concerns about “one way production” of consumer goods ~ 60 yrs ago

Vance Packard (1914 – 1996)

1960

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 Anti- Malthusian views 167 yrs after Malthus ( world population ~ 3.3 billion)

Ester Boserup (1910-1999) Theory of Agricultural Intensification 1965

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 Green Revolution introduced in agriculture ~ 60 yrs ago
Norman Borlaug (1914-2009) ; Nobel Peace Prize 1970

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 Environmental sciences are born ~ 60 years ago

Rachel Carson (1907 – 1964)

1962

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 1966: Distinction between “spaceship economics” and “cowboy economics”

THE ECONOMICS OF THE COMING SPACESHIP

EARTH, 1966

Kenneth E. Boulding (1910- 1993)

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1968 : Neo- Malthusianism revisited (world population 3.7 billion)

Paul Ehrlich (born 1932)

1968

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 First global environmental actions ~ 50 yrs ago

1st Earth Day

April 22, 1970

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 First manifesto circular economy ~ 50 yrs ago

Barry Commoner
(1917 – 2012)

1971

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 Four laws of ecology : circular economy !

1. Everything is connected to everything else.

2. Everything must go somewhere.
3. Nature knows best.
4. There is no such thing as a free lunch.

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 Emergence of sustainability concept ~ 50 yrs ago
The principal defect of the industrial
way of life with its ethos of expansion is
that it is not sustainable.

1972

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 1972 : On a finite planet economic growth is limited

Dana Meadows (1941- 2001)

Dennis Meadows (born 1942)
Jørgen Randers (born 1945)
William W. Behrens (born 1940)

1972

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 1972 : IPAT equation first formulated

I = PAT
Impact = Population x Affluence x Technology

Barry Commoner (1917 – 2012)

Paul Ehrlich (born 1932)
John Holdren (born 1944)

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 First outline of a global all renewable energy-based society > 40 yrs ago

Amory Lovins (born 1947)

1977

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 Steady state economics reformulated about 45 yrs ago

Herman Daly (born 1938)

1977

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 Definition of sustainable development > 30 yrs ago

1987

“Sustainable development is development that meets the needs of the present without
compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs”.

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 Launch “footprint concept” ~ 25 yrs ago
William Rees (1943)
Mathis Wackernagel (1962)

1996

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 First bible of environmental scepticism published ~ 20 yrs ago

Bjørn Lomborg (born 1965)

2001

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 First practical guide to circular economy ~ 20 yrs ago

William McDonough (born 1951)

Michael Braungart (born 1958)

2002

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First movie aimed at initiating global environmantal action ~ 15 yrs ago
Al Gore (born 1948)

2006

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 Case

(Extra) Greenhouse effect and climate change

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 Planet Earth ~ 10.000 yrs BC ; 510 million km²
Agriculture starts in Mesopotamia
World population ~ 5 million

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 Agriculture started in Mesopotamia ~ 10.000 years BC

Energy sources biomass, human labour and animal power

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 Agricultural acivities in Niniveh ( Mesopotamia)~ 6.000 BC

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 Agriculture in Pharaonic Egypt

Tomb of Sennedjem in Egypt ~ 1200 BC

Tomb of Nakht ~ 1500 BC

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Build up of anthropogenic greenhouse gases started ~ 10.000 BC

THE ANTHROPOGENIC GREENHOUSE ERA BEGAN THOUSANDS OF YEARS AGO

W.F. Ruddiman, Climatic Change 61, 261 – 293, (2003)
 Coal-based industrial revolution started in UK around 1800

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 Science of Greenhouse Effect began about 200 yrs ago

Joseph Fourier (1824)

« Remarques générales sur les temperatures du globe
terrestre et des espaces planetaires »

John Tyndall (1861)

“On the Absorption and Radiation of Heat by Gases and
Vapours, and on the Physical Connection of Radiation,
Absorption. and Conduction”

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 (Extra) Greenhouse effect predicted ~ 125 yrs ago
1895

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Start current scientific climate change paradigm about 50 yrs ago

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 Possibility global cooling being raised around 65 yrs ago

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 Global cooling in the future ? Discussion about 65 yrs ago

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 Global cooling in the future ? Discussion about 65 yrs ago

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 Possibility global cooling still being discussed about 40 yrs ago

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 Start continuous CO 2 monitoring > 60 yrs ago

415 ppm
May 2019

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 Planet Earth in 1992 : 510 million km²
World population about 5.5 billion

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 UNFCCC adopted in Rio de Janeiro in 1992

COP 1, Berlin, 1995 COP 3, Kyoto, 1997

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United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) adopted in 1992
COP 1, Berlin, 1995 COP 3, Kyoto, 1997

Paris, November 30 - December 12, 2015 Madrid, December 2 – December 13, 2019

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 Suggested further readings

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 General introduction environmental history

Clive Ponting (born 1946)

1991

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 Environmental history of 20th century

John McNeill (born 1954)

2000

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 160 years of fossil ( mainly oil) energy history

Daniel Yergin
( born 1947)

1990 2011

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 2017 : Ecological economics “hot”
Kate Raworth (born 1970)

2017

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 Super sequel to Silent Spring 52 yrs later
Elizabeth Kolbert (born 1961)

2014

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 Epic Clash of Cassandras and Cornucopeans

Charles C. Mann (born 1955)

Wizard: William Vogt

Prophet: Norman Borlaug

2018

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 Selection of Environmental Sciences Journals 1963 – present I

 Environmental Health, 1963 –

 Environmental Science & Technology, 1967
 Environment, 1969 –
 The Ecologist, 1970 - 2009
 Environmental Pollution, 1970 –
 Environmental Systems, 1971 –
 Human Ecology, 1972 –
 Science of the Total Environment, 1972 –
 Environmental Economics and Management, 1974 –
 Environmental Conservation, 1974 –
 Environmental Policy and Law, 1975 –
 Environmental History Review, 1976-1989
 Climatic Change, 1977 –
 Environmental Ethics, 1979 –
 Toxicological and Environmental Chemistry, 1989 –

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 Selection of Environmental Science Journals 1963 – present II
 Milieu, 1986 – 2002
 Environmental Engineering, 1988 –
 Environmental Psychology, 1989 –
 Ecological Economics, 1989 –
 Environmental Planning and Management, 1992 -
 Environmental History, 1996 –
 Life Cycle Assessment, 1996 –
 Ecotheology, 1997- 2006
 Journal of Industrial Ecology, 1997 –
 Journal of Integrative Environmental Sciences, 2003 –
 Sustainability Science, 2006 –
 Energy and Environmental Science, 2008 –
 Sustainability, 2009 -
 Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, 2009 -
 Environmental Biology, 2010 -

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 Concluding remarks

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 Take home messages
• Most environmental issues not new
• Scale and intensity of environmental issues increasing
• Long time gaps between scientific findings and societal action
• In a politically polarized world even established environmental
facts about past and present may be disputed
• Scenarios and visions of the future are not facts;
they can and (nearly) always will be disputed

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