WE SD - Charles Mateo PICENATCON48thPresentationforDIs

ESTIMATING TSUNAMI RISKS
PHILIPPINE INSTITUTE OF CIVIL ENGINEERS, INC.

IN COASTAL MUNICIPALITIES
IN THE PROVINCE OF ILOCOS
NORTE
ENGR. CHARLES A. MATEO, MSCE
Assistant Professor II, Mariano Marcos State University
Member, PICE-INLACC
Associate Member, ASEP
48th PICE National Convention – Bacolod City

November 11-12, 2022
Fault Lines in
Ilocos Norte
Estimating Earthquake and Tsunami Risks in Coastal

Municipalities in the Province of Ilocos Norte
Engr. Charles A. Mateo
The Study
Area

RESEARCH PARADIGM

INPUTS PROCESS OUTPUTS OUTCOMES
• Classified • Simulation • Hazard • Disaster

Surveyed using maps Risk
Data REDAS • Estimated Reduction
• Historical software Damaged Manageme
Fault for Structures nt and
Parameter Earthquake • Estimated Policies
for • Simulation Economic
Earthquake using Loss
• Historical TsuSim • Estimated
Fault Software Casualties
Parameter for
for Tsunami
Tsunami

RESEARCH QUESTIONS
1. What is the degree of exposure of buildings and

other structures in Ilocos Norte to tsunami events?
2. What is the degree of vulnerability of buildings and
structures in the province of Ilocos Norte to tsunami?
3. What potential risks of earthquake and tsunami in
the province of Ilocos Norte?
4. What Risk Reduction Management and Policies that
can be developed to address the risk caused by
tsunami?

DESIGN AND METHODOLOGY

Research Design and Methodology
• descriptive design
• evaluative approach


Data Gathering Tool
• Android Smartphone with EDM
• Used by DOST-Philvolcs


Data Gathering Procedure
• divided into three stages namely, pre-
field work, field work, and post-field
work.
• further divided into many steps for
achieving the objectives

Flow chart of
the Research
Methodology

Municipality Maps Showing Coastal
Barangays (Shaded)

Table 1
Key building Types Key buildings types with their respective descriptions
Year of
Sub- Structural Type or Construction
Material Type
type Description Pre- 1972- Post-

1972 1992 1992
Wood frame with area
W1 W1-L ≤ 500sq.m.(1-2
WOOD storeys) ü
W3 W3-L Bamboo (1-2 storeys) ü
Makeshift (1-2
N N-L storeys) ü
Concrete hollow
CHB CHB-L blocks (1-2 storeys) ü
MASONRY
Unreinforced masonry
URM URM-L (1-2 storeys) ü
Concrete moment
C1 C1-L frame (1-2 storeys) ü
CONCRETE
Concrete moment
C1-M frame (3-7 storeys) ü ü ü
Steel moment frame
S1 S1-L (1-2 storeys) ü ü ü
STEEL
Steel moment frame
S1-M (3-7 storeys) ü ü ü

Fault Parameters
Table 3
Fault Parameters used in tsunami simulation using TsuSim
Software.

Manila Trench 1
Parameter
(MT1)
Historical 6.4
Magnitude
Maximum Credible 8.4
Longitude 119.2
Location
Latitude 17.75
Historical 25.00
Length (km)
Maximum Credible 277
Historical 13
Width (km)
Maximum Credible 91
Strike (deg) 20
Dip (deg) 41
Rake (deg) 79
Historical 0.79
Slip Amount (m)
Maximum Credible 3.72

Flow Diagram REDAS
TSUSIM

Data Analysis and Statistical
Treatment
Risks and

Results were
summarized estimated loss
• frequency count • Summarized by
• means municipality and by
barangay
• percentages
• tables
• graphs
• maps
Actual
Table 4
Surveyed Data
Total number of structures from the actual surveyed coastal
municipalities of Currimao, Laoag City and Pagudpud

Key Building
Currimao Laoag Pagudpud Total Percent
Type
of Total
C1L 446 1507 1229 3182 47.76
CHBL 866 994 619 2479 37.12
CWSL 2 - - 2 0.03
MWSL 98 235 277 610 9.16
NL 26 25 32 83 1.25
S3L - 1 - 1 0.02
W1L 26 45 187 258 3.87
W2 2 6 2 10 0.15
W3L 15 10 12 37 0.56
Total 1481 2823 2358 6662 100.00

Actual Surveyed Data

Era of Construction
Table 5
Summary of the Period of construction of the buildings

surveyed in Currimao, Laoag and Pagudpud
Percent
Era of
Currimao Laoag Pagudpud Total of
Construction
Total
>2010 244 648 524 1416 21.25
1992-2010 647 1552 1277 3476 52.18
1972-1992 425 462 504 1391 20.88
Pre-1972 165 161 53 379 5.69
Total 1481 2823 2358 6662

Building Type
• Type 1 (non-solid):

52%
• Type 2 – RC – 1
storey: 36%
• Type 3 – RC - >1
Storey: 12%
• Depth: 4m-8m

Tsunami Simulation
using the TsuSim
Software

Degree of Damage
• Magnitude 6.4 earthquake
• maximum credible magnitude
8.4
• PHIVOLCS.
• West Philippine Sea along the
Manila Trench
• epicenter (17.75° - lat. ,119.2°
long)
Tsunami Simulation
using the TsuSim
Software

Inundation
•wave height -8.8 m
•11,513 ha are
•extends 4.81 km
•six (6) minutes from its
epicenter
•nil lead time to
evacuate
Hazard
Level

Tsunami
Hazard
Maps
Badoc Currimao
Tsunami
Hazard
Maps
Paoay Laoag
Tsunami
Hazard
Maps
Bacarra Pasuquin
Tsunami
Hazard
Maps
Burgos Bangui
Tsunami
Hazard
Maps
Pagudpud
Tsunami Risk Assessment
and Loss Estimation
Damage level
ENGINEERS, INC.
PHILIPPINE INSTITUTE OF CIVILand
Analysis of Data
• Level 0-No Damage
Presentation
• Level 1-Slight Damage
• Level 2-Moderate
Damage
• Level 3-Serious Damage

Physical Damage (in terms of area in sq.m.)

Physical Damage (in terms of no. of Building)

Economic Loss
1,200,000,000.00

1,000,000,000.00
800,000,000.00
Amount
600,000,000.00
400,000,000.00
200,000,000.00
-
CURRIMAO LAOAG PAGUDPUD
Municipality

Number of Casualty

PAGUDPUD
Municipality
LAOAG
CURRIMAO
0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000
Population
Risk Assessment and Loss

Number of Population
Table 13
Number of populations affected by tsunami in the Currimao,

Laoag City and Pagudpud.
Slight Moderate Serious

Municipality Total
Damaged Damage Damage
Currimao
79 939 4,733 6,673
Laoag City
693 2,912 7,421 14,292
Pagudpud
62 3,124 6,896 14,728
Grand Total
834 6975 19,050 35,693

Proposed DRRM Plans and Programs
These serve as guide to LGUs and DRR

managers to come up appropriate
tools, systems and activities that could
be locally adopted within specific LGUs.
• Designation of Evacuation Buildings
• Strict Implementation of Zoning Ordinance
• Coastal Defense Structures
• Strategic Plan
Proposed Tsunami Evacuation Plan

Proposed Tsunami Evacuation Plan

and mitigation
PRIORITY AREA GOALS STRATEGIES

Earthquake and Information and • Public schools
Tsunami Education preparation of at- and institutions
and Preparedness risk population to of higher
respond learning shall be
appropriately to engaged in
earthquake and earthquake and
tsunami events tsunami
preparedness
• Training and

outreach events
and campaigns
shall be
conducted
• Evaluated
findings of
earthquake and
tsunami shall be
incorporated to
trainings and
outreach events
and campaigns
Establish earthquake • Identify and
and tsunami ready recognize
coastal earthquake and
municipalities and tsunami ready
maintain existing communities
sites
Effectively support • Exercises on
exercises earthquake and
tsunami scenarios
shall be
conducted
Engage stakeholders • Stakeholders
adequately shall be engaged
on earthquake and
tsunami
preparedness and
response

CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
Conclusion

• A vast portion of the coastal area prone to tsunami
inundation which extends up to 4.81km upstream.
This may affect livelihood of many coastal
communities especially in Laoag City.
• Buildings along coastal areas are highly vulnerable
against damages due to tsunami. This is
aggravated by the fact that majority of the
buildings in the area are non-solid materials.
• tsunami induced by a magnitude 8.4 earthquake:
2.9 billion pesos; 35,693 persons to be affected
Recommendations

• Appropriate disaster risk reduction
management plans and programs should be
put in place.
• LGUs should have designated evacuation
buildings.
• LGUs should strictly implement zoning
ordinance

Recommendations

• Coastal defense structures should be
constructed
• LGUs should follow and implement
suggested strategic plan
• A continuation of the study to cover the
others six coastal municipalities and can be
expanded to Region 1 and other provinces
since TsuSim software are effective in risk
assessment.
God bless and thank
you for listening


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ESTIMATING TSUNAMI RISKS

PHILIPPINE INSTITUTE OF CIVIL ENGINEERS, INC.

48th PICE National Convention – Bacolod City

Estimating Earthquake and Tsunami Risks in Coastal

Estimating Earthquake and Tsunami Risks in Coastal

PHILIPPINE INSTITUTE OF CIVIL ENGINEERS, INC.

• Classified • Simulation • Hazard • Disaster

Estimating Earthquake and Tsunami Risks in Coastal

PHILIPPINE INSTITUTE OF CIVIL ENGINEERS, INC.

Estimating Earthquake and Tsunami Risks in Coastal

PHILIPPINE INSTITUTE OF CIVIL ENGINEERS, INC.

Estimating Earthquake and Tsunami Risks in Coastal

PHILIPPINE INSTITUTE OF CIVIL ENGINEERS, INC.

Estimating Earthquake and Tsunami Risks in Coastal

PHILIPPINE INSTITUTE OF CIVIL ENGINEERS, INC.

Estimating Earthquake and Tsunami Risks in Coastal

Estimating Earthquake and Tsunami Risks in Coastal

PHILIPPINE INSTITUTE OF CIVIL ENGINEERS, INC.

PHILIPPINE INSTITUTE OF CIVIL ENGINEERS, INC.

Estimating Earthquake and Tsunami Risks in Coastal

Fault Parameters used in tsunami simulation using TsuSim

PHILIPPINE INSTITUTE OF CIVIL ENGINEERS, INC.

Estimating Earthquake and Tsunami Risks in Coastal

PHILIPPINE INSTITUTE OF CIVIL ENGINEERS, INC.

PHILIPPINE INSTITUTE OF CIVIL ENGINEERS, INC.

municipalities of Currimao, Laoag City and Pagudpud

PHILIPPINE INSTITUTE OF CIVIL ENGINEERS, INC.

Estimating Earthquake and Tsunami Risks in Coastal

PHILIPPINE INSTITUTE OF CIVIL ENGINEERS, INC.

Summary of the Period of construction of the buildings

PHILIPPINE INSTITUTE OF CIVIL ENGINEERS, INC.

Estimating Earthquake and Tsunami Risks in Coastal

PHILIPPINE INSTITUTE OF CIVIL ENGINEERS, INC.

Estimating Earthquake and Tsunami Risks in Coastal

PHILIPPINE INSTITUTE OF CIVIL ENGINEERS, INC.

PHILIPPINE INSTITUTE OF CIVIL ENGINEERS, INC.

Estimating Earthquake and Tsunami Risks in Coastal

Estimating Earthquake and Tsunami Risks in Coastal

PHILIPPINE INSTITUTE OF CIVIL ENGINEERS, INC.

PHILIPPINE INSTITUTE OF CIVIL ENGINEERS, INC.

PHILIPPINE INSTITUTE OF CIVIL ENGINEERS, INC.

Estimating Earthquake and Tsunami Risks in Coastal

PHILIPPINE INSTITUTE OF CIVIL ENGINEERS, INC.

0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000

PHILIPPINE INSTITUTE OF CIVIL ENGINEERS, INC.

Number of populations affected by tsunami in the Currimao,

PHILIPPINE INSTITUTE OF CIVIL ENGINEERS, INC.

Slight Moderate Serious

Estimating Earthquake and Tsunami Risks in Coastal

PHILIPPINE INSTITUTE OF CIVIL ENGINEERS, INC.

PHILIPPINE INSTITUTE OF CIVIL ENGINEERS, INC.

PHILIPPINE INSTITUTE OF CIVIL ENGINEERS, INC.

PRIORITY AREA GOALS STRATEGIES

PHILIPPINE INSTITUTE OF CIVIL ENGINEERS, INC.

48th PICE National Convention – Bacolod City

PHILIPPINE INSTITUTE OF CIVIL ENGINEERS, INC.

PHILIPPINE INSTITUTE OF CIVIL ENGINEERS, INC.

Estimating Earthquake and Tsunami Risks in Coastal

PHILIPPINE INSTITUTE OF CIVIL ENGINEERS, INC.

Estimating Earthquake and Tsunami Risks in Coastal

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