MULTI-HAZARD AND IMPACT CALCULATIONS

USING THE RAPID EARTHQUAKE DAMAGE

ASSESSMENT SYSTEM (REDAS) SOFTWARE

Presenting Author: Maria Leonila P. Bautista

Co-Authors: Bartolome C. Bautista, Ishmael C. Narag, Angelito G. Lanuza and
Renato U. Solidum, Jr

Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS) – Department of

Science and Technology (DOST)
Outline of Presentation
• Seismotectonic Setting of the Philippines
• History of REDAS
• REDAS Methodology
• Sample Results
• Method of Distribution
• Road Ahead
Natural Hazards Setting of the Philippines
• Ranks 3rd in the
2018 Global Risk
Philippine
Sea Index
West
Philippine
Sea COMMON HAZARDS
Sulu • tropical cyclones
Sea
• floods
Celebes
Sea • landslides
• volcanic eruptions
Indian
• earthquakes
Ocean • tsunamis
Reasons for High Earthquake Vulnerability of the Philippines

• Rapid Development and uncontrolled population

growth

• Lack of Proper Land use and development plans

• Very lax implementation of the building codes and

other regulations that can reduce the risks

•Lack of Contingency/emergency Planning

• Lack of understanding about hazards and risk by

local government officials

Solution ----> Educate Local Officials

 Earthquake Activity in the Philippines
(~ 20 earthquakes recorded/day; 200 felt earthquakes/year;
~90 destructive earthquakes for past 400 years – 1 in 5 years)

M7.8 1990 Luzon Earthquake

>M4.0 Earthquakes M6.9 2012 Negros Or Earthquake

 Philippine Institute of Volcanology and
Seismology (PHIVOLCS)

Focus on earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions

and related phenomena (ex. landslides)

•Monitoring and warning

•Hazards and risk
assessment
•Evaluation of earthquake
and volcano eruption
potential
•Public awareness,
community preparedness,
disaster risk reduction
REDAS was conceived after PHIVOLCS’ and the nation’s
experience immediately after the July 16, 1990 (Ms 7.8)
earthquake Damages: Dead 1,283
missing 460
injured 3,516
Severe and moderate damage to
104,614 buildings; 19 buildings
in Baguio were totally destroyed
while 12 were partially
destroyed.

Damage cost: 99 billion pesos

(400 billion yen, US$ 3 billion)
 STRONG GROUND SHAKING
..strong ground shaking caused buildings and other
structures to collapse in areas near the epicenter and in
areas more than 100 km away such as in Baguio City..

Christian Colleges of the Philippines Baguio Park Hotel Hyatt Terraces

Collapsed Bridge near epicenter University of

Baguio
 LIQUEFACTION
..caused extensive and serious
liquefaction in many other places in
central and northern Luzon…

Carmen Bridge

Dagupan City

Dagupan City
Dagupan City
 LANDSLIDES
..widespread landslides occurred aggravated by the rainy season..

Northern Cordillera

Areas affected by landslides (Arboleda et al,

1990) Marcos Highway
Typical situation when a large-magnitude earthquake
occurs:

Breakdown of communication facilities

Disruption of power supply
Isolation of affected areas through collapse of bridges
and blockade of road networks by landslides

Delay of information about the affected areas which is

especially needed for timely rescue and relief operations !!!
A Lesson Learned:

The need to establish a Rapid Earthquake Damage

Assessment System (REDAS) that can give rapid
estimate of the possible seismic hazards and the
severity of the impacts to population, buildings,
lifelines, road networks and other elements-at- risks.
DEVELOPMENT OF a Hazards and RISK ASSESSMENT TOOL
Rapid Earthquake Damage
Assessment System (REDAS)
software

-Tool for computing hazards

(deterministic ground shaking,
liquefaction, landslides, tsunami)
-Tool for preparing scenarios
-Tool for computing risks/impacts

- static maps of various hazards • REDAS - Non-

can be integrated commercial,
GIS based, being shared
- Include module for developing with Philippine
communities and other
exposure data (schools, bridges, stakeholders since 2006
urban areas, houses); can be
updated by local government It’s Free!
 1. Target Users:

Rescue and
medical groups
Civil Defense officials
/disaster managers/local
officials

News Media
2. Target Users:

Policy Makers and Planners

• Deeper understanding
and appreciation of
Earthquake the Earthquake
hazard maps as
Hazards and Risks
inputs to land
use planning ?! • Serious Planning and
Active Formulation of
Effective Disaster
Prevention Policies
Main Capabilities of REDAS:

1. SIMULATES HAZARD
 Ground Shaking
 Liquefaction
 Earthquake-Induced Landslides
 Tsunamis
 Severe Wind

2. BUILDS EXPOSURE DATABASE

Population, buildings, bridges, lifelines,
critical facilities, hospitals, fire stations, etc.

3. COMPUTES EARTHQUAKE, SEVERE WIND AND FLOOD

IMPACTS
 History of REDAS
•Developed by PHIVOLCS–DOST in 2002-2004 under
funding support from DOST-Grant Aid Project

•From 2006 till present – being distributed to local

government units in the Philippines, free of charge,
for their use in landuse planning and emergency
preparedness

•PHIVOLCS support includes technology transfer,

hands on training, future upgrade and technical
support
 Impact Calculations in REDAS
Impact (Risk) = Hazards,
Exposure, Vulnerability
Vulnerability
Hazards - Social (Casualties, Coping Capacities)
- Physical Damages, Economic Loss
-Geologic
-Hydrometeorological
Impact
(Risk)

Exposure
- Spatial Location of
People, Buildings,
Businesses, Infrastructure,
Lifelines, Utilities
1. Hazards: REDAS Seismic Hazard Assessment (SHA) Module
Earthquake Impact Assessment Results to Metro Manila due to
a Mag 7.2 earthquake along the West Valley Fault
 2. Vulnerability
• The conditions determined by physical, social,
economic, and environmental factors or processes,
which increase the susceptibility of a community
to the impact of hazards.

• Physical Vulnerability (equations/fragility curves)

• Social Vulnerability (capacity of a community

including institutions and policies)
Vulnerability and Fragility Equations for Computing
Physical Damage and Economic Loss
Vulnerability Curves for
computing Economic Loss

Fragility Curves for

computing Physical
Damage
Methods for Deriving Vulnerability
Curves

Historical or
EMPIRICAL observed data

VULNERABILITY COMPUTATIONAL
CURVE Analytical Method

HEURISTIC Based on experts’

opinion
Vulnerability Curves used in Computing
for Economic Loss
Loss ratio are derived from vulnerability curves (Curve
depends on building type, predominant era of
construction, earthquake intensity)
Fragility Curves used for Computing
Physical Damage and Fatalities
 Exposure (elements-at-risk)
• Exposure – sometimes referred to as the elements at risk
– refers to both the human population and the building
stock that lie within a hazard footprint
• A comprehensive exposure database contains information
on the:
• spatial location of people and structures (including
residential, business, emergency services and critical
infrastructure);
• construction information including material type (e.g.,
wall and roof type), number of stories and vintage; and
• value of structures and contents
Q How do we count the number of buildings
and the people who reside in these
structures?
Exposure: Building

•Top-down approach – using

remote sensing data, land use
mapping, census data, assessor’s
data

•Bottom-up approach - Individual

building survey
Exposure Database – Two Approaches
TOP-DOWN APPROACH
National spatial data Elevation and Surface Data
National statistical data Geospatial Imagery

EXPOSURE
DATABASE

LGU supplied data Expert Advice

Free and Open Source data Local knowledge
BOTTOM-UP APPROACH
Philippine Building Typology
developed by Univ of the Phils Diliman Inst of Civil Engineering UPD-ICE)

• Material
• Material (wood, masonry, concrete, steel)
• Structural System
• Lateral force resistance (frame, shear walls, etc)
• Building Height
• (L, M, H, V, E, S)
• Vintage (year of construction)
• Pre-1972, 1972-1992, Post-1992

University of the Philippines Diliman – Institute of Civil Engineering (UPD-ICE)

 CHB

Wood & Light

Concrete frame
Hybrid

Masonry Steel frame

Pre-cast
 W1 Philippine Building Typology
S1
MWS C1
Wood, Light Steel Moment Frames
Frame
Concrete Hollow Blocks with

W2Wood,
Wood or Light Metal

RM1
Concrete
Moment Frames

S2
Commercial and
Industrial
RMBW with Wood or
Metal Deck
Diaphragm C2 Steel Braced
Frames

W3
Concrete Shear
Walls

RM2 S3
Bamboo
RMBW with
Precast Concrete C4 Light Metal Frames

N
Diaphragm
Concrete Shear
Walls and Frames

Makeshift
URA S4
Unreinforced
Adobe or Stone Bearing PC1 Steel Frames with Cast-in-place

CHB
Walls
Precast Concrete Tilt- Concrete Shear Walls
up Walls
Concrete Hollow Blocks
URM
Unreinforced
Masonry Bearing Walls PC2
CWS Reinforced
Precast Concrete
Frames w/
Concrete Shear Walls
Concrete|Moment Frames
with Wood or Light Metal UPD-ICE Philippine Building Typology
Teaching Communities Build their ow Exposure
database through use of Android devices

Portable Android Devices

• With built-in GPS

• Built-in Camera (3MP)

• 3G / WiFi (Access Google

Map)

• SQLITE Database
Sample of Building Attributes Captured by the PC Survey Tool

 Geographic location and address of the buildings

Information about building use (including number of occupants)

Description of the floor and façade

Description of the walls and roof

 structural system classification

-- Assessors office classification
-- UP-ICE Classification

 The shape and building symmetry, seismic separation from other

buildings, roof and wall attachments and other information that may
contribute to the earthquake vulnerability of the buildings
 Results are plotted
on map

Can host Photographs

Earthquake Impact Assessment Results to Metro Manila due to
a Mag 7.2 earthquake along the West Valley Fault
 Earthquake Risk Maps for a Mag 7.2 Earthquake
along the West Valley fault

Total Collapse Fatalities Economic Loss

 PROFILE OF METRO MANILA
C I T Y /M U N I C I P A L B O U N D A R I E S

COMPOSITION: K a lo o k a n C ity N
• 16 Cities & 1 Municipality
• 1,690 Barangays
V a le n z ue la
LAND AREA - 636 sq. km. (0.2% of Philippines)
POPULATION - 9.8 million (2000) Ma la b o n Q ue z o n C ity

DENSITY - 16,490 persons/km2 N a v o ta s K a lo o k a n C ity S

HOUSEHOLDS - 2.0 million (average of 5/household) Ma rik in a C i ty

- approx. 3.5 million are informal dwellers

S an J ua n
GDP - ~ $25.5 Billion Ma n ila C i ty
Mandaluyong
Ma n d a lu yo n g C ity
BUILDINGS - ~1,300,000 (Residential) Makati CityP a s ig C ity

INFRA & TRANSPORT Pasay City

- domestic and international seaports Taguig

- domestic and international airports

Parañaque City
- 3 elevated mass transport system
- elevated hi-way and flyovers
Las Piñas City
HOSPITALS - 177 (26,400-bed capacity)
SCHOOLS - 1,410
4 0 4 8
Muntinlupa City

ME T R O P O L IT AN MANIL A, P H IL IP P INE S
Mandaluyong City Impact Results for a Mag 7.2
earthquake along the West Valley Fault
Economic Loss Map of Mandaluyong City due to
M7.2 Earthquake
 Damage Levels Defined
D1. Slight damage state- hairline cracks on concrete or masonry walls, unnoticeable to
no damage on wooden structures, hairline cracks on few welds and minor
deformations on connections for steel structures.

D2. Moderate damage state- criss-crossing hairline cracks on concrete walls,

tightening or loosening of door and window frames, cracks in bolts and enlarged
boltholes for steel structures

D3. Extensive damage state- spalling or flaking of columns, flexural cracks on beams of
concrete structures, damage on corners of wooden structures, heavy damage on walls
of CHB structures, buckling and large cracks on welds of flange-web connections,
broken bolts for steel structures

D4. Complete damage without collapse state- heavily damaged main structural
supports but the structure is still standing and may have an impending collapse

D5.Complete damage with collapse state- structure is flattened or has toppled to the
ground, significant permanent displacement of walls with respect to the vertical
 [D3] Extensive Damage

Cracks and spalling in several

Columns
Extensive Physical Damage to Mandaluyong City for a
Mag 7.2 earthquake along the West Valley Fault
 [D4] Complete Damage Without Collapse
Local Definition: Heavily damaged
supports but the building remains
standing

HAZUS: Intense damage on

RC framed structures, Out-
of-Plumb and Plastic
deformation on columns

•All walls are collapsed with remaining structural members

•Imminent danger of collapse due to brittle failure of non-
ductile frame elements or loss of frame stability
[D4] Complete Damage Without Collapse

•Very heavy damage to

the RC framed
Structure

•Collapse of large
portion of walls and
floors

•Collapse of several
columns at the first
and second storeys
Complete Damage Without Collapse to Mandaluyong City for a
Mag 7.2 earthquake along the West Valley Fault
 [D5] Complete Damage With Collapse
•All columns and walls are
flattened to the ground
•Structure is collapsed.

Brgy. Poblacion,
Sevilla
June 5, 2014

Photo taken on June 1, 2014

Collapse Damage State to Mandaluyong City for a Mag 7.2
earthquake along the West Valley Fault

Photo taken on June 1, 2014

 Casualty Levels Defined
• S1: Slight injuries- abrasions, severe cut requiring stitches,
injuries requiring basic medical aid, minor burn, bump on the
head without loss of consciousness

• S2: Non-Life-Threatening injuries- Injuries requiring a greater

degree of medical care, third degree burns or second degree
burns on large part s of the body, fractured bone, loss of
consciousness, dehydration

• S3: Life-Threatening injuries- uncontrolled bleeding, punctured

organ, spinal injuries, crush syndrome and other injuries that
pose immediate life-threatening condition if not treated
immediately

• S4: Fatalities- instantaneous death or mortally injured during

the main shock.
 Casualties (Mandaluyong City)
Slight Non-Life Threatening
Injuries Injuries

Life-threatening
Injuries
S4:
Fatalities
REDAS earthquake impact results plotted on
Google map images
Summary of Results per village (Mandaluyong City)

• 502 estimated
fatalities
• 801 buildings
collapsed
 Calibration of Fragility Curves Using 2013 Bohol Earthquake (Mw7.2) Damage data

 Foot Survey was conducted to collect building

damage data
 Extensive damage, complete damage and collapsed
structures are clearly visible outside by the observer
while on the street.
 For slight to moderate damage, we need to go inside
the building or ask the building owner to describe the
damages
 Local officials who usually accompany us in the survey
can sometimes also provide some information about
the damages incurred by the buildings

Adjusted fragility curve for CHB structures based

Original fragility curve for CHB structures with on the damage excedance probability data from
damage exceedance probability data from the the M7.2 Bohol Earthquake
M7.2 Bohol Earthquake
REDAS Impact Assessment Modules: SHAke, SWIFT, FLOAT, TSUSIM, CropDAT
SHAke (Earthquake) FLOAT (Flood)

SWIFT (Severe Wind)

TsuSim (Tsunami)
Types of results:
1. Physical damage
2. Fatalities and Injuries
3. Economic Loss
REDAS Impact Assessment Modules: SHAke, SWIFT, FLOAT, TSUSIM, CropDAT

REDAS Crop Damage

Assessment Tool
(CropDAT)
Estimates agricultural
losses to rice and corn
due to severe wind and
flood
Severe Wind Impact Forecasting Tool (SWIFT)

59
REDAS Results: Severe Wind Hazard Map of Cavite province due to
Tropical Cyclone Glenda

Regional Wind Field Map

(source of typhoon tracks: PAGASA)

Local Wind Hazard Map

for CALABARZON
REDAS Results: Map of Completely Damaged Buildings in Cavite Province during the
Occurrence of Tropical Cyclone Glenda

61
REDAS Results: Economic Loss Map in Cavite Province during the
Occurrence of Tropical Cyclone Glenda

62
REDAS Results: Affected Population Map in Cavite Province during the
Occurrence of Tropical Cyclone Glenda
Children Male Female

Senior Citizen Persons with Disability (PWD) Household Count

63
 REDAS Results: Summary of Severe Wind Impact Results In Cavite
During the Occurrence of Tropical Cyclone Glenda Using 2010 PSA (NSO) Data

64
REDAS FLOAT
Explanation for MGB Flood Hazard Map
 Flood Impact Results

Worst Case Severity Level = ≥ 2meters

Impact* results for a very high flood susceptibility
level to Quezon City
Number of Affected Population in
damaged buildings Damaged buildings
Children below 6 Disabled
year old

Cost of damaged
buildings Females Senior
Citizen
People Needing Evacuation
(~1m flood level) in Quezon City
Disabled
Children below 6
year old

Females Senior
Citizen
REDAS Tsunami Simulation (TSUSIM)
M8.4 Earthquake Scenario Earthquake along the Philippine Trench

Tiwi

Animation of Tsunami for Tiwi, Albay

 Tsunami Impacts using REDAS TSUSIM for a M8.4 Earthquake
Scenario Earthquake along the Philippine Trench

Tsunami Inundation Map of

Tiwi, Albay

DAMAGE NUMBER OF TOTAL FLOOR ECONOMIC AFFECTED

LEVEL BUILDINGS AREA LOSS (PHP) POPULATION
0 19 1062.5 0 72
1 0 0 0 0
2 99 12000 38510750 468
3 237 19506.25 115045625 1308
REDAS Crop Damage Assessment Tool (CropDAT)

REDAS Crop Damage

Assessment Tool
(CropDAT)

Estimates agricultural
losses (rice and corn) due
to severe wind and flood
Sample Results: Mag 6.3 Cotabato Earthquake of October 16, 2019
NDRRMC Sitrep Report:
REDAS Impact Calculations for the Mag 6.3 Cotabato
(Oct 16, 2019) Earthquake
 Municipal Level Impact Results for
Cotabato
due to M6.3 Earthquake using PSA 2015
Data
POINT SOURCE
 Community members
Who are the REDAS conducting building survey
Users?

• Local Government Units

• National Government Agencies
• State Universities and Colleges
• Church Groups
Use of android devices to collect Hands on Training
building data

• Private Companies
• Non-Government Organizations
Surveyed buildings plotted on imageries
 REDAS Participants
64 provinces, 677 towns/cities including 12* govt
institutions, 37 SUCs, one Church group, 75 private Around 5252 participants
companies, 10 NGOs Around 4840 REDAS licenses
issued
 REINA, Quezon (Feb 2006)
 Bulacan (March 2006, May 2011,Oct 2013,March 2016)
 Surigao del Sur (November 2006, June 2009, March 2011)  Benguet (Jan 2012, September 2015)  Iriga City (January 2015)
 Irosin, Sorsogon (March 2007, Oct 2009, July 2011)  Pangasinan (April 2012,November 2013)  Batanes (May 2015)
 Surigao del Norte (March 2007,Jan 2011)  Rizal (July 2012)  Catanduanes (May 2015)



NEDA RDCS (Jan 2011)
Albay (Sept 2008, October 2009)
64 provinces, 677 towns/cities including 12* govt institutions,

Zamboanga Sibugay (Sept 2012)
Guimaras (Oct 2012)


Samar (June 2015)
Ifugao (July 2015)
 Kalinga (Jan 2013)


37 SUCs, one Church
Leyte (Oct, Nov 2008; April 2010)
Office of Civil Defense – May 2009, Oct 2014  Bataangroup,
(Jan 2013) 75 private companies, 10 NGOs


Quezon (Aug 2015)
Ilocos Sur (Sept 2015)
 Dinagat (March 2007,June, October 2009,May 2014)  Zambales (Jan 2013)  Isabela (Oct 2015)
 Bohol (July, August 2009)  Occ Mindoro (Jan 2013,Jan 2019)  Iloilo (Oct 2015)
 Cavite (July 2009,October 2013)  Romblon (Jan 2013)  Camarines Norte(Dec 2015)
 Pampanga (August 2009)  Palawan (Jan 2013)  Nueva Vizcaya (March 2016)
 Laguna (October 2009, Sept 2012)  Cam Sur (Jan 2013,February 2013)  Quirino (March 2016)
 PMS (October 2009)  Capiz (Jan 2013)  Bayawan City (July 2016
 Iloilo City (November 2009, Oct 2018)  Masbate (Jan 2013)  Pangasinan (Aug 2016)
 Northern Samar (February 2010)  Zambo del Sur (Jan 2013)  Makati City (Sept 2016)
 Negros Occidental (March 2010,April 2012, March 2014)  Davao del Norte (Jan 2013)  Ilocos Norte (Oct 2016)
 Metro Manila (April 2010, July 2012)  Davao del Sur (Jan 2013)  Baguio City (Dec 2016)
 Palayan City (April 2010)  Tarlac (Jan 2013, Jan 2018)  Carmona (Feb 2017)
 Sorsogon (June 2010)  Antique (April 2013)  Quezon City (April 2017)
 Nueva Ecija (October 2010)  Aklan (June 2013)  La Union (April 2017)
 Olongapo City (January 2011, November 2012)  Biliran (July 2013)  Bacoor City (May 2017)
 Southern Leyte (July 2011)  Quiapo Church (August 2013)  Cebu (Aug 2017,Nov 2017)
 Cainta, Pasig and Marikina (Sept 2011)  MVP Group of Comp (Dec 2013)  Davao City (Sept 2017)
 Antipolo City (October 2011)  Bago City (,April 2014)  Gen Mariano Alvarez (Sep 2017)
 Dagupan City (October 2011, February 2014)  Agusan del Sur (May 2014)  Muntinlupa City (July 2018)
 Sarangani (December 2011, August 2018)  Marikina City (Sept 2011, October 2014)  Davao Oriemtal (Nov 2018)
 South Cotabato (December 2011, August 2019)  Cagayan (December 2014)  Agusan del Norte (March 2019)
Some Issues encountered in impact
estimation:
• 1. UPD ICE Building typology not adopted by Phil
Statistics Agency (PSA), DILG’s CBMS and other
exposure data collecting tool

• 2. Manner of collecting damage data is not

harmonized. This is needed for validating fragility
curves

• 3. Lack of nationally consistent exposure database.

Why do we need to teach stakeholder how to determine their own impact results?

• Teach communities to “learn by doing”

• Science-based disaster preparedness

• Self-help and Self-reliance

• Communities understand, accept and own impact results

Our Goal:

Use REDAS in
emergency preparedness,
contingency planning and
mainstreaming disaster risk reduction in the
development planning for SAFE AND PREPARED
PHILIPPINE COMMUNITIES !
Disaster Strikes When the Memory of the Last One Has Been Forgotten

- Proverb
Thank you for your attention!
Earthquake & Tsunami (24/7):
Tel. Numbers
• +632 929-9254 Contact Us:
• +632 426-1468 loc 124 / 125
Fax number
• +632 927-1087 http://www.phivolcs.dost.gov.ph

Volcano (24/7): /phivolcs_dost

Tel. Numbers
• +632 426-1468 loc 127
Telefax number
• +632 927-1095
Philippine Institute of
IEC materials: Volcanology and
• +632 426-1468 loc 128 Seismology
• +632 927-4524
(PHIVOLCS-DOST)