Session

Disaster Risk Assessment , Risk

Reduction and Risk Management
 Objectives of the Session
At the end of the session the participants will be able to

• Define concepts and terminologies related to DRM.

• Describe the types of hazards and their consequences.
• Describe the natural disaster profile of Sri Lanka.
• Identify the key models and phases of disaster risk
management.
• Define the difference between Disaster Management (DM)
Disaster Risk Management (DRM) and Disaster Risk
Reduction (DRR).
• identify key cross-cutting issues in DRM
• Understanding Global Initiatives on DRR
A potential for a natural or
human induced negative event
HAZARD: a potentially damaging physical event, natural
phenomenon or human activity that may adversely affect
human life, property or social and economic disruption or
environmental damage.

Potential Impact on:

– People: death, diseases and stress
– Human activity: economic, educational etc.
– Property: damage to buildings, dams
– Environment – loss to flora and fauna, pollution.
 Types of Hazards
a. Speed of onset:
- Rapid onset: Earthquakes, tsunami, cyclones, floods,
volcanic eruptions etc.
- Slow onset: Droughts, famines, environmental degradation,
pest infestations etc.

b. Origin: Natural or Human made.

c. Cause: Primary or Secondary

 Types of Hazards
Primary hazard. If Earthquake.
Secondary hazards:
• Building collapse
• Dam failure
• Fire
• Hazardous material spill
• Interruption of power/ water supply/ communication/
transportation/ waste disposal
• Landslide
• Soil liquefaction
• Tsunami (tidal wave)
• Water pollution
Tsunami Hazard Map
 Storm Surge @
Sea Level Rise in 2100
270 km/h Wind Speed
Drought Map
Vulnerability
Is a condition or sets of conditions that reduces people’s ability to
prepare for, withstand or respond to a hazard.

-the negative conditions determined by physical, social, economic

and environmental factors or processes, which increase the
susceptibility of a community to the impact of hazards.

socio-economic indicators of vulnerability for Sri Lanka’s

population are:
poverty
population density
unemployment
migration
malnutrition
growth of large informal economies in unplanned cities
socio-political tensions and uncertainty
absence of sound regulatory practices, and
unsustainable environmental practices
Capacity
- Combination of strength or resources available within a
community, society or organization that can be harnessed to
reduce the level of risk or the effect of a disaster.
- Those positive condition or abilities which increase a
community’s ability to deal with hazards.

Coping capacity: manner in which people and organizations use

existing resources to achieve counter adverse conditions after
disasters.

Example: Physical, institutional, social or

economic means, skilled personal or collective
attributes such as leadership and management.
Elements at Risk
Persons, buildings,
crops or other such like
societal components
exposed to known
hazard, which are likely
to be adversely affected
by the impact of the
elements at risks after a disaster could be:
hazard. ✓ Physical: roads, railways, airports,
bridges, schools, hospitals etc.
✓ Economic: business and trade
activities, access to work etc.
✓ Societal: vulnerable groups like
women, children, elderly, low income
groups etc.
✓ Environmental: loss of bio-diversity,
damaged landscapes etc.
 What then disaster risk?

Risk =
[Hazard x Vulnerability] – [Capacity]
Risk
The probability that a community’s structure or
geographic area is to be damaged or disrupted by
the impact of a particular hazard, on account of
their nature, construction, and proximity to a
hazardous area.

The probability of suffering damage (to life,

property, economic disruptions and environment)
from a hazard for a given area and reference
period.

“Risk is the product of hazard and vulnerability”

 Risk Assessment
Exposure and
susceptibility to loss
of life or dignity

Risk

Capacity Risk Assessment

includes:
risk identification,
risk analysis and
risk evaluation.

Risk assessment is an essential element of the Risk = Hazard + Vulnerability

DRM decision making process. Capacity
DISASTER
An event, either man-made or natural,
sudden or progressive, causing widespread
human, material or environmental losses

Disaster is a serious disruption of the functioning of a community or a

society causing widespread human, material, economic and/or
environmental losses which exceeds the ability of the affected
community or society to cope using its own resources (UN-ISDR,
2002)

Affects men, women, children, elderly/disabled differently

Causes disruption in life

Affected people CANNOT recover by themselves

HAZARD
 Disaster Types Natural (Fast or Slow-Onset)
 Hydrological- flood, Storm surges, coastal
flood
 Meteorological – storm, tropical cyclones
 Geophysical – volcanoes, earthquakes,
tsunamis
 Biological – epidemics, viral and bacterial
infectious disease
 Climatologically- Extreme temperatures,
drought, wildfires

Man-Made
 Industrial – oil or chemical spills, nuclear,
pollutants
 Technological- cyber, satellite,
communication network crash
 Transportation- major airliner crash
 Complex or Conflicts
 Civil Unrest/War/Ethnic/Refugee
http://www.gle2010.com/web_images/global_disasters.jpg
movements
 Terrorism
Disaster Situation in JMC
 Classification of Disasters
• Type : Natural or Man-made
• Location : Single or multiple sites
• Occurrence : Single or multiple
• Predictability : Expected, unexpected
• Probability :Frequent, rare
• Onset : Gradual, sudden
• Magnitude : High impact, Low impact
• Level :Local, National, Regional
 Results of Natural Disasters

Natural Disasters occur in the

environment
Therefore, they disrupt the

• Physical environment

• Biological environment

• Socio-economic environment
Effects of Natural Disasters

• Direct

• Cascading

• Indirect
What is the difference between DM
,DRR and DRM
We can REDUCE the Disaster Risks
“Simple DRR Cosideration,action and Inclusiveness in
Planning Process that ensure the Sustainability and
Resilience of the Individual, Community and Region.” –
S.Ravi (FASIA :2015-2030)
Disaster Management

Objectives :to reduce/avoid

human, physical, economic
losses suffered by
individuals/society/nation
to speed recovery

A collective term surrounding all aspects of

planning for preparing and responding to
disasters. It refers to the management of the
consequences of disasters.
 What is Disaster Risk Reduction?

Disaster Risk Reduction is a conceptual framework of elements

to minimize disaster risks throughout a society within the
context of sustainable development.
Prevention +Mitigation+ Preparedness

It includes:
(i) risk awareness and assessment,
(ii) knowledge development,
(iii) institutional frameworks,
(iv) application of land-use protection, science and technology,
partnerships, financial,
(v) early warning systems
(vi) Risk Transfer Measures
 Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR)
: Understand 4 simple STEPS

Analyze the problem

Identify correcting measures

Identify supporting measures & responsible stakeholders

Categorize measures
 Risk reduction
• These are measures taken to eliminate or
reduce the intensity of a hazardous event.
• These measures address existing Risk can be reduced by:
vulnerabilities through measures like early • Reducing the hazard
warning
• Reducing the
vulnerability of the
•Include actions such as:
elements at risk
•Implementation and enforcement of
building standards • Reducing the amount
•Environmental protection measures of the elements at
•Resource management practices risk
•Mention others? • Increasing the coping
•can be taken to reduce future vulnerability capacity
•Avoid (prevent) or
•Limit (mitigate and prepare for)

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The Risk Reduction Cycle

Risk Reduction:
Hazard Analysis
•Hazard mitigation
•Vulnerability reduction

Sustainable
development

37
 Risk reduction strategies

• Structural measures:
Refer to any physical construction to reduce or avoid
possible impacts of hazards, which include engineering
measures and construction of hazard-resistant and
protective structures and infrastructure
• Non-Structural measures:
Refer to policies, awareness, knowledge development,
public commitment, and methods and operating practices,
including participatory mechanisms and the provision of
information, which can reduce risk and related impacts.
 Risk reduction strategies

• Avoidance (eliminate) i.e. modify the hazard

• Reduction ( mitigate) i.e. modify the vulnerability of hazard

damage and disruption.

• transfer (outsource or insure) i.e. modify the impact of hazards

on individuals and the community.

• Retention ( accept and budget)

 Risk reducing measures
Structural measures
Any physical construction to reduce or avoid possible
impacts of hazards
– engineering measures
– construction of hazard-resistant and protective
structures and infrastructure
 Structural Mitigation Measures
Current/future projects for flood
control and disaster management
in our Region Government & ADB:
Asian Development Bank
 None Structural Measures
Preparedness ,Awareness and Response
Comprehensive Disaster Risk Analysis for Multi
Hazard at Village Level
Community Based Disaster Risk Application of Spatial
Reduction Action Technology on DRR
Developed SOP for DRR Disseminate Global Knowledge at
Local
Emergency Response action at Sub National Level DRR and PP
different Event
Guideline for Construction at Disaster Prone
Area
Operational Plan
Disaster Risk • There are three primary and interrelated
Management categories in risk management:
•risk identification
•risk reduction
•risk transfer
• These measures are mostly related to pre-
disaster phases of disaster risk
management and reflect the new approach
in DRR

A broad range of activities designed to:

▪ Prevent the loss of lives
▪ Minimize human suffering
▪ Inform the public and authorities of risk
▪ Minimize property damage and economic
loss
▪ Speed up the recovery process
 Disaster risk management - Stress on proactive disaster
management responses of prevention, mitigation and
preparedness

• Risk Management
–Prevention “AN APPLIED SCIENCE WHICH SEEKS,
–Mitigation BY THE SYSTEMATIC OBSERVATION
AND ANALYSIS OF DISASTERS, TO
–Preparedness IMPROVE MEASURES RELATING TO
–Response PREVENTION, MITIGATION,
PREPAREDNESS, EMERGENCY
–Recovery RESPONSE AND RECOVERY.”
–-Risk Transfer
✓ Prevent, reduce, transfer or live with disaster risk
✓ Public safety, disaster resilience, sustainable development for all
 Entry Points for DRR
BEFORE
(Prevention, Mitigation,
Preparedness)
▪Risk Assessments
•Early Warning Systems
•Mainstreaming
•Programmes for DRR
•Capacity Building
•Institutional Strengthening
•Advocacy
•Awareness Raising
•Knowledge Development
•Community Involvement
•Development of risk reduction
tools
DURING
(Response, Relief)
•Warnings and Evacuations
•Damage Assessment
•Needs Analysis
•Emergency Operations
•Provision of aid
•Shelter
•Strengthen coordination
mechanisms
•Evaluate and apply lessons
learnt
•Mainstreaming
AFTER
(Recovery, Rehabilitation
Reconstruction)
•Risk Assessments
•Development of recovery
strategies, frameworks, policies
and projects that reflect DRR
considerations
•Restoration of critical services
in context of DRR
•Reconstruction activities
•Awareness-raising
•Community involvement
•Ongoing development
•Evaluate and apply lessons
learnt
•Development Practices
Risk Management
 Pre and Post Disaster Activities
Pre-disaster activities Post-disaster activities
Emergency Rehabilitation-
Risk identification Mitigation Risk transfer Preparedness
response reconstruction

Insurance,
• Definition: It is defined as the
Hazard assessment
(frequency,
Structural and non- reinsurance of
structural works public
Warning systems,
communication
process of
Humanitarian
Rehabilitation,
reconstruction of
magnitude, assistance damaged critical
identifying, analyzing and quantifying the
location)
and actions infrastructure and systems, protocols
private assets
infrastructure

probability of Financial losses market in order to undertake

Clean-up, Macroeconomic and
Vulnerability instruments Contingency
preventive
assessment or corrective
Land-use planning (catastrophe actions
planning (utility
temporary
repairs and
budget management
(stabilization,
(population and and building codes bonds, weather- companies, public
restoration of protection of social
• This involves twofunds)
assets exposed)
types of activities
indexed hedge services)
;
services expenditures)

–Planning
Risk assessment actions
Financial
Public to reduce
services
with safety
Networksvulnerability
of
Damage
assessment and
inRevitalization
areas of
(function of incentives for emergency affected sectors (e.g.
where risk
hazards and can beenergy,
preventive controlled,
regulations (e.g.
water,
and
responders (local,
identification
of priorities for
exports, tourism,
vulnerability) behavior national) agriculture)
–Establishing protective mechanisms
transportation) recovery
against the
Mobilization of
Hazard monitoring
potential
and forecasting economic
Education, training
and awareness
Financial losses from
Shelter facilities,
uncontrollable
recovery
resources
Incorporation of risk
management in
(space-time protection
factorsabout
modeling, scenario of natural
risks
prevention
and hazards
strategies
evacuation plans (public-
multilateral,
reconstruction
processes
54
building)
insurance)
 Risk Transfer

• These are mechanisms which aim at reducing actual

vulnerability to financial risk by ensuring that funds are
available when loss occurs from a disaster happening

•Risk transfer mechanisms are often inefficient from cost

perspective, so it is important to take all the necessary
measures to reduce the vulnerability of assets to be covered
before transferring the risk

55
 Risk transfer methods
• Without getting into details the main risk transfer/ risk
financing methods include:

• Insurance and Reinsurance

• This Insurance provides coverage for damage and expenses
that are beyond the potential for budget self-insurance

• It involves paying some premiums to an insurance company

• Premiums are calculated in a way that they spread out the risk

56
 Risk transfer methods
Budget for self-insurance – Allocation of a small proportion
of budget to be spent on improved maintenance
•This can be done at the local government level
•Districts should have a Risk Reduction strategy
•Districts should implement activities that promote risk
reduction
•They should target the most vulnerable populations and
causes of vulnerability
•Includes compensation policy

57
 Risk transfer cont…

–Community insurance
•Cooperatives
•Community savings groups
•Community policing
•Resource conservation
–Household livelihood insurance mechanisms
•Savings
•Food security
•Modern methods of production

58
Risk communication
is the interactive exchange of information about risks among risk
assessors, managers, news media, interested groups and the general
public.

• who (Source)
• says what (Message)
• via what medium (Channel)
• to whom (Receiver)
• and directed at what kind of change (Effect).
Resilience: “resilience to shocks” is the ability to prevent and
mitigate disasters and crises as well as to anticipate, absorb,
accommodate or recover and adapt from them in a timely, efficient
and sustainable manner.

Resilience: Capacity of a system, community or society to resist or

change so that they can function despite the impacts of a disaster.
Enhancing Resilience of communities to face disasters
Resilience Means
Resilience Means
Adaptation: the adjustment in natural or human systems in response
to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates
harm or exploits beneficial opportunities.
 Cross-cutting issues (CCI)/Inclusiveness
in Disasters
• Gender
• Human Rights
• Conflict
• Livelihood
• Environment
• Governance
• Others
 CCI: Some examples

Gender:
Women are more vulnerable because of
• Physiological aspects
• cultural constraints
• economic and social burden
• limited access to education and resources

Both men and women have varying levels of capacity (owing

to their physiological aspects and social positioning) to reduce
disaster risks.
 CCI: Some examples
Age:
Elderly
- weak mobility
- physical disabilities
- isolated
Young children
- nutritional deficiencies
- lack of physical strength
and practical skills
- totally dependent on their
parents
- lack of experience
Disability:
Physical, mental, impaired
sight, lack of mobility,
difficulty in understanding or
communicating
Ethnicity or foreignness
- Migrants or refugees:
language, educational and
cultural barriers may restrict
access to information and risk
avoidance
- Hazardous jobs where health
and safety standards are poor
 Disaster Risk Management Approaches

 Previous Approach Reactive

 Rescue
 Recovery
 Relief
 Rehabilitation
 Present Approach Proactive
 Planning
 Prevention
 Preparedness
 Response
 Disaster Risk Reduction
 Disaster Risk Management
Risk Assessment
Risk Analysis
Hazard Identification

Hazard Assessment

Risk Governance / Risk Communication

; Spatial Information
Element at Risk/Exposure

Management
Risk Monitoring and Updating

Vulnerability Assessment

Risk Estimation

Risk Evaluation

Risk Visualization
Non-Structural Structural

Risk Transfer Codes

Emergency Planning
Awareness/Training Standard
Early Warning Reinforcing
Land use Planning Protective Measures
EIA/SIA/DIA

Cost-benefit Assessment
Risk Reduction
The component of the Disaster Risk Management

Risk Identification

Risk Reduction

Disaster Risk
Preparedness
Management

Financial Security/Risk
Transfer

Resilience
 Frequency of Disasters in Sri Lanka

Seven most frequently occurring disasters in

Sri Lanka:
1. epidemics,
2. animal attacks,
3. floods,
4. fire,
5. droughts,
6. landslides and
7. cyclones.

Source: Sri Lanka Disaster Inventory Database (1974-2007)

 Impact of Disasters in Sri Lanka

Impacts of Disasters on
HUMAN LIFE
1. Tsunami
2. Cyclone
3. Epidemic
4. animal attacks
5. Landslide
6. Flood

Source: Sri Lanka Disaster Inventory Database (1974-2007)

 Impact of Disasters in Sri Lanka

Impacts of Disasters on
HOUSING
1. Flood
2. Cyclone
3. Tsunami
4. Gale
5. Landslide

Source: Sri Lanka Disaster Inventory Database (1974-2007)

 Impact of Disasters in Sri Lanka

Impacts of Disasters on
CROPS & PADDY
1. Droughts
2. Flood
3. Animal attack
4. Cyclone
5. Forest fire
6. Storms and Gale

Source: Sri Lanka Disaster Inventory Database (1974-2007)

 Comparison of Impact in Sri Lanka

CROPS &PADDY

HUMAN LIFE HOUSING

Source: Sri Lanka Disaster Inventory Database (1974-2007)
Global Trend and Context of DRM
Millennium Development Goals : 2000 - 2015
 Hyogo Framework Action :2005 – 2015
Building the Resilience of nations and communities
to disasters
Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (SFDRR)
2015 - 2030
Global Outcome :
The substantial reduction of disaster risk and
losses in lives, livelihoods and health and in
the economic, physical, social, cultural and
environmental assets of persons, businesses,
communities and countries
 13 Guiding Principles
• Primary responsibility of States to prevent and reduce disaster risk, including through cooperation
• Shared responsibility between central Government and national authorities, sectors and stakeholders
as appropriate to national circumstances
• Protection of persons and their assets while promoting and protecting all human rights including the
right to development
• Engagement from all of society
• Full engagement of all State institutions of an executive and legislative nature at national and local
levels
• Empowerment of local authorities and communities through resources, incentives and decision-
making responsibilities as appropriate
• Decision-making to be inclusive and risk-informed while using a multi-hazard approach
• Coherence of disaster risk reduction and sustainable development policies, plans, practices and
mechanisms, across different sectors
• Accounting of local and specific characteristics of disaster risks when determining measures to reduce
risk
• Addressing underlying risk factors cost-effectively through investment versus relying primarily on
post disaster response and recovery
• «Build Back Better» for preventing the creation of, and reducing existing, disaster risk
• The quality of global partnership and international cooperation to be effective, meaningful and strong
• Support from developed countries and partners to developing countries to be tailored according to
needs and priorities as identified by them
 Four priorities for action to prevent new and
reduce existing disaster risks
The Sendai Framework focuses on the adoption of measures which address
the three dimensions of disaster risk (exposure to hazards, vulnerability and
capacity, and hazard’s characteristics)

It aims to achieve the substantial reduction of disaster risk and losses in lives,
livelihoods and health and in the economic, physical, social, cultural and
environmental assets of persons, businesses, communities and countries over
the next 15 years.

(i) Understanding disaster risk

(ii) Strengthening disaster risk governance to manage disaster risk
(iii) Investing in disaster reduction for resilience and
(iv) Enhancing disaster preparedness for effective response, and to "Build
Back Better" in recovery, rehabilitation and reconstruction.
 Conference of the Parties (COP )1st Germany 1995 –
25th Spain 2019
The historic Paris Agreement of 12 December 2015 at COP21 is the first international agreement
committing 195 Parties, developing and industrial countries alike, to combat climate change and
to kick-start action and investment towards the goal of limiting global temperature increase to
“well below 2°C”. Efforts shall be pursued to even limit global warming to 1.5°C above pre-
industrial levels, and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was mandated to
develop a report by 2018 on how to reach this goal. The climate objectives and measures
contained in the countries’ climate action plans, or (intended nationally determined contributions)
INDCs, are voluntary in nature, but a number of legal requirements are contained in the new
climate deal:

Important point in the agreement

Long Tem Goal
Mitigation
Transparency and Support
Finance
Adaptation
Loss and Damages
Carbon Markets
Sustainable Development Goals: 2015-
2030
All inclusive
Sustaining
Resilience
• There are 25 targets, directly
and indirectly, related to
disaster risk reduction in 10 of
the 17 SDGs, firmly
establishing the role of disaster
risk reduction as a core
development strategy.

Disaster risk reduction cuts

across the 2030 Sustainable
Development Agenda
Goals 10: 1,2,3,4,6,9,11,13,14,15
 Global Climate Risk Index (CRI)

• The Global Climate Risk Index (CRI) developed by Germanwatch analyses

quantified impacts of extreme weather events 7 – both in terms of fatalities as
well as economic losses that occurred – based on data from the Munich Re
National Catastrophic SERVICE, which is worldwide one of the most reliable
and complete databases on this matter.

• The CRI examines both absolute and relative impacts to create an average
ranking of countries in four indicating categories, with a stronger emphasis on
the relative indicators

• Analysis explaining countries' exposure and vulnerability to climate-related

risks based on the most reliable quantified data – along with other analyses. It
is based on the current and past climate variability and – to the extent that
climate change has already left its footprint on climate variability over the last
20 years
Countries most affected in 2017
World Map of the Global Climate Risk Index
1997-2017
 Challenges Implementation of DRR

• In adequate Implementation of Mainstreaming DRM into development context at

all level

• Lack of knowledge on Pro active planning process in DRM and other sectors

• Lack of Knowledge and skills to comprehensive Multi Hazard Risk Assessment

/Analysis at Micro & Macro level

• Difficult to implement non structural mitigation measures related to water related

disaster due to lack of scientific studies at Local ,Sub National and National level

• The development projects proposed by various sectoral ministries do not adequately

consider the disaster risk reduction aspects in their project proposals.

• DRM is not decentralized subject, thus difficulties in engaging all stakeholders for
disaster risk management activities at sub national level.
Thank you for your attention!
Any Question or Clarification ?

If not ,We together to Safe the

community and Make
Resilience Community in our
Country 90