Final RRL 2

University of the Philippines
Master of Science in Geomatics Engineering - Geoinformatics
Julius Noah H. Sempio
Using remote sensing and GIS for a hydro-meteorology based drought vulnerability
map for farmers in Pitpitan, Bulakan, Bulacan
Thesis Advisers:
Rhodora M. Gonzalez, Ph.D.

Department of Geodetic Engineering
University of the Philippines – Diliman
Leorey O. Marquez, Ph.D.

Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation
Melbourne, Australia
Thesis Readers:
Ariel C. Blanco, Ph.D.; Mark Edwin A. Tupas, M.S.

Department of Geodetic Engineering
University of the Philippines – Diliman
Mary Rose O. Mabalay, M.S.

Philippine Rice Research Institute
City of Muñoz, Nueva Ecija
Date of Submission
December 16, 2016
Thesis Classification
This thesis is available to the public
i
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“fair use” of the work in accordance with the provisions of the
Intellectual Property Code of the Philippines (Republic Act No.
8293), especially for teaching, scholarly and research
purposes.”
________________________________
Student Name over Signature and Date
ii
NOTICE OF ACCEPTANCE
This thesis, entitled USING REMOTE SENSING AND GIS FOR A HYDRO-
METEOROLOGY BASED DROUGHT VULNERABILITY MAP FOR FARMERS IN
PITPITAN, BULAKAN, BULACAN, prepared and submitted by JULIUS NOAH H.
SEMPIO in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF
SCIENCE IN GEOMATICS ENGINEERING – GEOINFORMATICS, is hereby
accepted.
______________________________
RHODORA M. GONZALEZ, Ph.D.
Thesis Adviser
______________________________
LEOREY O. MARQUEZ, Ph.D.
Thesis Co-adviser
Accepted as partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of

Science in Geomatics Engineering – Geoinformatics.
______________________________
RIZALINDA L. DE LEON, Ph.D.
Dean
iii
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
This author would like to give due acknowledgment to the following:
- The Department of Geodetic Engineering of the University of the
Philippines – Diliman for the good training received during the author’s
stay as a student
- To Sir (and future Dr.) Oliver T. Macapinlac, for providing the principal
insights necessary for the author to come up with this thesis
- To Dr. Rhodora M. Gonzalez, Ph.D., for being the patient guide for the
author as primary adviser
- To Dr. Leorey Marquez, Ph.D., for entertaining the author’s inquiry e-mails
despite his busy schedule at CSIRO, Australia
- To the Marine Science Institute’s Physical Oceanography Department, led
by Dr. Cesar Villanoy, Ph.D., for providing the author with the necessary
overview of Philippine hydro-meteorology
- To the staff of the Engineering Research and Development for Technology
(ERDT) office in UP Diliman, headed by Dr. Augustus Resurreccion,
Ph.D., for patiently aiding the author in processing and enjoying
scholarship benefits and privileges
- To the staff of the following local government units that helped in providing
the author the much needed data for the thesis:
o The Bulacan Provincial Agricultural Office (PAO)
o The Bulacan Provincial Development and Planning Office (PDO)
o The Bulacan Provincial Disaster Risk Reduction and Management
Office (PDRRMO)
o The Bulacan Provincial Assessor’s Office
o The Municipal Development and Planning Office (MPDO) of
Bulakan, Bulacan
o The Office of the Barangay Chairman of Pitpitan, Bulakan, Bulacan
- To the industrious farmers of Pitpitan, Bulakan, Bulacan, whose decades
worth of continuing farming experience and unyielding determination to
serve the nation through their work on food production should be an
inspiration for the citizenry
- To the author’s family, friends and associates, for simply being there
- And, of course, to God, ever watchful.
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ABSTRACT OF THESIS
For agriculture to withstand the adverse effects of climate change and remain
productive in spite of unusual weather phenomena, active adaptation is a practicable
option for farmers and government agencies alike. Other strategies, such as the
construction of water retention ponds and developing climate-adaptable varieties,
require heavy funding that, without institutional support, are beyond the Filipino
farmers’ financial capabilities. Also, these strategies take many years to build and
bear fruit. In view of these shortcomings and vulnerability to extreme weather events,
immediate and low-cost adaptation measures are needed for farmers to consider
while waiting for the long-term solutions.
This paper presents the development of a methodology using remote sensing
and GIS techniques in determining the vulnerability to climate irregularities of a
farming community in Pitpitan, Bulakan, Bulacan. This methodology is intended to
become part of a GIS-based climate adaptation recommender system that, in
consideration of farmers’ customary practices, will help to inform them of alternative
adaptive measures in cases of imminent climate issues such as drought and floods.
Search of related literature, personal visits to concerned local government
units, and discussions with Pitpitan’s farmers reveal that, in general, farmers are
more concerned with drought than with heavy flooding. Thus focus was given on
helping farmers cope with drought conditions, and the developed methodology made
use of a reduced version of the agricultural drought vulnerability index (ADVI), which
is a data-intensive climatic vulnerability assessment index developed in India. ADVI
is modified in order to take into account current data shortcomings of the Philippines,
and still come up with a potentially useful analysis tool for extreme climate
vulnerability of farm parcels in Pitpitan. The resulting thematic maps are then
validated by farmers for being accurate and informative.
A prototype table of recommendations was also developed with the reduced
ADVI (rADVI) methodology, which aims to provide farmers with suggested
adaptation measures based on their parcels’ rADVI ranking and the expected rainfall
situation in the Pitpitan area. These recommendations at parcel level were arrived at
using GIS that incorporates both established agricultural strategies and local
farmers’ knowledge of time-tested strategies.
Keywords: climate adaptation, agricultural climatic vulnerability assessment,
combined remote sensing and GIS techniques
v
TABLE OF CONTENTS
NOTICE OF ACCEPTANCE ............................................................................................................iii
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ....................................................................................................................iv
ABSTRACT OF THESIS ................................................................................................................... v
TABLE OF CONTENTS ....................................................................................................................vi
LIST OF TABLES ............................................................................................................................... ix
LIST OF FIGURES .............................................................................................................................x
PART I: INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................. 1
PART II: OBJECTIVES AND SIGNIFICANCE ............................................................................... 5
The study area ................................................................................................................................ 7
Scope and limitations..................................................................................................................... 8
PART III: RELATED LITERATURE ............................................................................................... 11
A. On Climate Change And Designing Farming Communities’ Resiliency Programs . 12
The changing climate and its effects on agriculture ............................................................ 12
Problems on adaptation measures ........................................................................................ 13
The need for climate-related policy ........................................................................................ 14
Coping range and adaptive capacity ..................................................................................... 15
B. The Roles Of Mainstream And Indigenous Knowledge On Farmers’ Adaptation .... 18
The role of indigenous knowledge in climate adaptation .................................................... 18
Crops and practices for drought events ................................................................................ 19
Crops and practices for extreme flooding events................................................................. 21
Agricultural climatic adaptation practices outside the Philippines ..................................... 23
Agricultural climatic adaptation practices in the Philippines ............................................... 24
Farmers’ willingness to adopt new techniques ..................................................................... 26
C. The Role Of Geospatial Technologies In Farming Communities’ Resilience........... 29
Geospatial technologies and computer science in aiding agriculture to face climate
change ....................................................................................................................................... 29
Issues on the acceptability of geospatial technologies to agricultural adaptation ........... 30
Examples of computer-based applications for farm and land management .................... 31
D. Vulnerability Assessment Aided By Geospatial Technologies ................................... 36
Parameters in assessing vulnerability of farming sites ....................................................... 36
ADVI in detail ............................................................................................................................ 37
E. Summary Of Insights ........................................................................................................... 41
F. Summary Of Good Farming Adaptation Practices From The Literature ....................... 44
PART IV: METHODOLOGY ........................................................................................................... 46
Workflow Design for SICATA ..................................................................................................... 47
vi
• SICATA design schematic .............................................................................................. 47
• The Table of Recommendations .................................................................................... 51
Knowledge gained from farmers ................................................................................................ 51
➢ Focus group discussion with rice farmers, 28 June 2015 ........................................... 52
➢ Personal communication with a Pitpitan rice farmer, 04 September 2015 ............... 56
Gathering and Processing of Secondary Data Sources ......................................................... 62
• Data from the Municipality of Bulakan, Bulacan ........................................................... 62
• Data and Insights from the Bulacan Provincial Capitol ............................................... 63
Data Pre-processing for Deriving ADVI Composite Indices ................................................... 68
A. Exposure Index ............................................................................................................. 70
B. Sensitivity Index ............................................................................................................ 73
C. Adaptive Capacity Index .............................................................................................. 82
D. Derivation of Weights for reduced ADVI (rADVI) ..................................................... 86
E. rADVI and the Final Output ............................................................................................. 90
PART V: RESULTS AND DISCUSSION ...................................................................................... 92
The case of EI............................................................................................................................... 93
SI Results ...................................................................................................................................... 95
AI Results ...................................................................................................................................... 99
rADVI Results ............................................................................................................................. 100
Post-rADVI Actions .................................................................................................................... 103
Output Validation ........................................................................................................................ 104
• Validation with the Bulacan PAO.................................................................................. 105
• Validation with Pitpitan’s Farmers ................................................................................ 106
Remarks on ADVI’s performance ............................................................................................ 108
Issues Encountered ................................................................................................................... 110
PART VI: CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ........................................................ 113
PART VII: REFERENCES ............................................................................................................ 117
PART VIII: APPENDICES ............................................................................................................. 127
Appendix A. The Table of Recommendations for Pitpitan’s Farmers ................................. 128
Appendix B. Comparison of Methodologies for Drought Vulnerability ................................ 132
Appendix C. Transcriptions in English of audio recordings of different interviews made in
the pursuit of the study .............................................................................................................. 137
Transcription in English of Notable Proceedings from the Audio Recording of a Focus
Group Discussion with Pitpitan Farmers on Climate Adaptation Practices (28 June
2015) ........................................................................................................................................ 137
vii
Transcription in English of Notable Proceedings from the Audio Recording of a Focus
Group Discussion with Pitpitan Farmers on the Validity of the ADVI Study (7 March
2016) ........................................................................................................................................ 145
Appendix C. Calculating Percentage of Soil Type and Irrigation Support for Each Land
Parcel in QGIS 2.10 ................................................................................................................... 149
Appendix D. Expanded Methodologies for Obtaining ADVI Indicators Set Aside or Not
Included in This Study ............................................................................................................... 153
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LIST OF TABLES
Table 3.1. Agricultural climatic adaptation practices in other countries .................................... 24

Table 3.2. Contributing indicators of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity composite
indices in the Andhra Pradesh study and their corresponding weights (Murthy, Laxman, &
Sesha Sai, 2015, p. 166)................................................................................................................. 40
Table 4.1. Descriptions of marking colors for the 8-bit LandsatLook ‘Quality’ image that is, as
of writing, available only to Landsat 8 products (USGS, 2015, p. web)) .................................. 76
Table 4.2.1. List of codes for interpreting the content of Tables 4.2.2. and 4.2.3. .................. 88
Table 4.2.2. Obtained weights for Pitpitan’s ADVI assessment for the Landsat datasets,
setting aside the inapplicable indicators. ...................................................................................... 89
Table 4.2.3. Obtained weights for Pitpitan’s ADVI assessment for the MODIS datasets,
setting aside the inapplicable indicators. ...................................................................................... 90
Table AA.1. Part 1 of the Table of Recommendations.............................................................. 130
Table AA.2. Part 2 of the Table of Recommendations.............................................................. 131
ix
LIST OF FIGURES
Fig.2.1. The basic input/output diagram for the SICATA recommender system.. ..................... 6
Fig.2.2. General view of Pitpitan, Bulakan, Bulacan in Google Earth. A detailed map of the
barangay is provided in the Methodology section. ........................................................................ 8
Fig.3.1. Analytical heuristic of the relationship between generic and specific capacities,
stressing the importance of balance between the two dimensions in promoting adaptation as
shown at the upper-right quarter .................................................................................................... 16
Fig.3.2. A PVC pipe used in monitoring for the AWD technique................................................ 26
Fig.3.3. Schematic representation of CCAST (Liu, Timbal, Mo, & Fairweather, 2011, p. 142)
............................................................................................................................................................ 32
Fig.3.4. Schematic representation of the vertical integration of knowledge relevant to climate
change impact and adaptation made possible by CCAST for the wheat production in NSW
and relevant to the applicability of the framework for other locations (Liu, Timbal, Mo, &
Fairweather, 2011, p. 152) .............................................................................................................. 33
Fig.3.5. Basic principles of the operations of LandCaRe-DSS (Wenkel, et al., 2013, p. S173)
............................................................................................................................................................ 34
Fig.3.6. The Australian Indigenous Biocultural Knowledge (AIBK) web map, with the
Southern Tanami protected area selected (top). Clicking on the URL link included in the
popup opens another website that gives more information regarding the conservation
practices being done in the selected region (bottom). ................................................................ 35
Fig.3.7. Framework of methodology for deriving ADVI (Murthy, Laxman, & Sesha Sai, 2015,
p. 165)................................................................................................................................................ 38
Fig.4.1. A SICATA flow diagram developed in the earlier phases of the study ....................... 47
Fig.4.2. The flow diagram for SICATA’s recommendation scheme, including needed
derivable parameters from each primary data source or layer (shown in green) for obtaining
seasonal ADVI and its composite indices (shown in red) ........................................................... 50
Fig.4.3. The study author, seven of the ten interviewed farmers of Pitpitan, and two
grandchildren of one of the farmers (taken 28 June 2015) ........................................................ 54
Fig.4.4. Linear graph interpretation of Pitpitan farmers’ activity diagrams for both the irrigated
and the rainfed season .................................................................................................................... 59
Fig.4.5. A scene at the farmer-interviewee’s house, with two sacks of chaffed rice seeds
from the previous harvest to be used for the upcoming rainfed season (taken 11 June 2016)
............................................................................................................................................................ 60
Fig.4.6. The farmer-interviewee using crayons to mark areas of interest on a printout of
Pitpitan’s farm parcels (taken 11 June 2016). .............................................................................. 61
Fig.4.7. Scanned copy of the farm parcel map worked on by the farmer-interviewee............ 62
Fig.4.8. Existing (left) and proposed (right) land use maps of the municipality of Bulakan,
Bulacan as provided by the Municipal Planning and Development Office. Barangay Pitpitan
is located approximately at the area boxed in red on each map. .............................................. 63
Fig.4.9. Georeferenced barangay political boundary map provided by the Bulacan PPDO,
transparency reduced and overlaid on a Google Hybrid layer in QGIS 2.10. Note the green
boundary depicting Pitpitan after digitization. ............................................................................... 65
x
Fig.4.10. Farm parcel data from the Bulacan Provincial Assessor’s Office. Another image
with map coordinates was provided to the author. ...................................................................... 66
Fig.4.11. Generated vector data of Pitpitan’s political boundary map and farm parcel
boundaries map overlaid on a pre-processed, Landsat 8-derived NDVI map dated 06
September 2015 (see section on Landsat 8 NDVI for details). .................................................. 67
Fig.4.12. The general methodology for vulnerability assessment using ADVI. ....................... 69
Fig.4.13. Flowchart of methodology for obtaining EI values as performed in this study. ....... 73
Fig.4.14. A Landsat 8 NDVI image with Pitpitan’s digitized political boundaries and farm
parcels as overlays (details on deriving Landsat NDVI at the next section). ........................... 74
Fig.4.15. A MODIS NDVI image with Pitpitan’s digitized political boundaries and farm parcels
as overlays. ....................................................................................................................................... 75
Fig.4.16.1. A view of the study area (marked by its bounding boxes) in EarthExplorer, with a
LandsatLook ‘Quality’ image for 06 September 2015 overlay. Note the white-colored pixels
that denote ‘cloudy’ areas around the study area. (USGS, 2015, p. web). .............................. 76
Fig.4.16.2. The same view of the study area (marked by its bounding boxes) in
EarthExplorer, but this time with a LandsatLook ‘Quality’ image overlay for 22 October 2015.
This time whitish marks can be noted along the bounding box’s left edge. ............................. 77
Fig.4.17.1. Zonal statistics tool in QGIS 2.10, marking ‘Sum’ (SIN) and ‘Maximum’ (SMN) for
subsequent CV calculation. ............................................................................................................ 79
Fig.4.17.2. The resulting calculation from the zonal statistics tool in QGIS 2.10 displayed as
new columns at the rightmost end. ................................................................................................ 79
Fig.4.18. Flowchart of methodology for obtaining SI values as performed in this study using
Landsat imagery. .............................................................................................................................. 80
Fig.4.19. Flowchart of methodology for obtaining SI values as performed in this study using
MODIS imagery. ............................................................................................................................... 81
Fig.4.20. Pitpitan farm parcel boundary map overlaid on top of the barangay’s soil map,
derived from the BAR data downloaded at http://philgis.org. The blue area is clay loam while
the red area is hydrosol. .................................................................................................................. 84
Fig.4.21. Pitpitan irrigation support map based on a personal communication with a Pitpitan
farmer in 11 June 2016. The blue areas represent irrigated areas, the red areas represent
otherwise. .......................................................................................................................................... 85
Fig.4.22. Flowchart of methodology for obtaining AI values as performed in this study (refer
to Appendix B for a step-by-step processing procedure). .......................................................... 85
Fig.4.23. Scatter plot of land parcel areas in square meters, revealing the very large outlier
(boxed in red). .................................................................................................................................. 87
Fig. 5.1.1. A screenshot of the Measure tool on QGIS 2.14, where the depicted approximate
distance between the Bulacan Provincial Capitol and Barangay Pitpitan is at 7.527
kilometers. Bing Aerial is used as a basemap via the OpenLayers plugin. .............................. 94
Fig. 5.1.2. The same Measure tool on QGIS 2.14, this time depicting the approximate
distance between the Science Garden in Quezon City and Pitpitan at 27.694 kilometers.
Bing Aerial is also used as a basemap via the OpenLayers plugin. ......................................... 95
xi
Fig.5.2.1. Case 1 resulting output for sensitivity index calculation using Landsat NDVI data
from two irrigated seasons. The darker the color, the more vulnerable the parcel for that
season. .............................................................................................................................................. 96
Fig.5.2.2. Case 1 resulting output for sensitivity index calculation using MODIS NDVI data
season. .............................................................................................................................................. 96
Fig.5.3. Pitpitan’s farm parcel boundary map overlaid on Google Earth dated 25 January
2015. Note of the dominance of greenery at the northern areas in the top image, which is not
the case in the south. ...................................................................................................................... 97
from an irrigated season and a rainfed season. The darker the color, the more vulnerable the
parcel for that season. ..................................................................................................................... 98
parcel for that season. ..................................................................................................................... 98
Fig.5.5. Resulting output for adaptive capacity index for Case 1. The darker the color, the
more vulnerable the parcel for that season. ................................................................................. 99
more vulnerable the parcel for that season. ............................................................................... 100
Fig.5.7.1. Case 1 ADVI for the Landsat datasets. ..................................................................... 101
Fig.5.7.2. Case 1 ADVI for the MODIS datasets. ...................................................................... 101
Fig.5.7.3. Case 2 ADVI for the Landsat datasets. ..................................................................... 102
Fig.5.7.4. Case 2 ADVI for the MODIS datasets. ...................................................................... 102
Fig.5.8. Estimated re-interpretation in QGIS 2.14 of the rough physical validation map
provided by a farmer-interviewee, showing stable and problematic parcels (C. Catindig,
personal communication, June 11, 2016). .................................................................................. 108
xii
xiii
PART I: INTRODUCTION
1
INTRODUCTION
The first encyclical made entirely by Pope Francis, being more of a critique of
political, financial and corporate interests than a religious deliberation, discusses
about ecological degradation and economic injustice (Whalon, 2015). In the letter’s
sections describing global warming, it describes the Earth as “our common home”,
but due to human notions of mastery over natural resources, is considered “among
the most abandoned and maltreated of (the) poor” (Vatican Press, 2015, p. 3). While
the letter noted that the worldwide ecological movement has made considerable
progress in raising awareness of the many challenges faced by nature – pollution,
climate change and loss of biodiversity, to name a few – “many efforts to seek
concrete solutions to the environmental crisis have proved ineffective, not only
because of powerful opposition but also because of a more general lack of interest”,
and that “obstructionist attitudes, even on the part of believers, can range from denial
of the problem to indifference, nonchalant resignation or blind confidence in technical
solutions” (Vatican Press, 2015, pp. 12 - 13).
As climate change progresses, developing countries and the world’s poor in
general will bear the greatest burden of its adverse effects (Vatican Press, 2015, pp.
20 - 21):
Climate change is a global problem with grave implications: environmental,
social, economic, political and for the distribution of goods. It represents one
of the principal challenges facing humanity in our day. Its worst impact will
probably be felt by developing countries in coming decades. Many of the poor
live in areas particularly affected by phenomena related to warming, and their
means of subsistence are largely dependent on natural reserves and eco-
systemic services such as agriculture, fishing and forestry… Sadly, there is
widespread indifference to such suffering, which is even now taking place
throughout our world. Our lack of response to these tragedies involving our
brothers and sisters points to the loss of that sense of responsibility for our
fellow men and women upon which all civil society is founded.
The Philippines, like many of the world’s poor countries, will be among the
most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, and occurrences of extreme
climatic events like droughts and floods have are seen to have serious negative
implications for major water reservoirs in the country (Jose & Cruz, 1999, p. 77). The
2
food production sectors of agriculture and fisheries in the nation are expected to be
affected via reduced productivity (World Bank, 2013, p. web).
We could imagine, for example, a farmer from Benguet province earning
₱50,000 on a normal harvest season, and ₱30,000 gets deducted due to taxes,
farm-to-market logistics, local corruption issues and purchase of seedlings for the
next planting season, leaving him or her ₱20,000 for family expenses such as food
and education needs of three children. But on a climate-hampered harvest season, if
the farmer will only get half of the original income, he or she will already be unable to
comply with the ₱30,000 required expenditures and to compensate, he or she will
have to borrow money from a loan shark. If succeeding harvests become bad due to
climate issues, the farmer will sink into a heavy debt burden.
With proper information and planning, however, these changes may be taken
advantage of in the field of agriculture, as long as the climate-induced phenomenon
is within “coping range” – that is, the range in which the effects of climate conditions
are considered either beneficial or negative but tolerable (ADPC, 2007, p. 34) For
example, while increasing levels of carbon dioxide can strengthen the greenhouse
effect and in turn result to increased worldwide temperature, high CO2 levels can
also increase yields for crops such as wheat and soybeans (EPA, 2013, p. web) – in
effect, these farming fields can act as massive and productive carbon sinks.
Going back to the example of the farmer from Benguet province, if, with the
help of climate adaptation strategies, he or she will gain ₱40,000 instead of ₱50,000
from a climate-hampered harvest, he or she will be able to comply with the ₱30,000
automatic dues (including the corruption issues) and still have some spare ₱10,000
to spend on family expenses.
Some nations introduced adaptive measures to be taken when an unusual
climatic phenomenon is expected to happen. In Bangladesh, for example, citations of
good adaptation practices against drought include re-excavation of ponds for
rainwater harvesting, use of local indigenous knowledge in homestead gardening
practices, and cultivation of crops suited for drought conditions such as fruit-bearing
trees including mangoes or jujubes* (ADPC, 2007, p. 42) And in Canada, farmers
situated in the drier regions of the prairies made significant adaptations to drought
through practices that conserve moisture and protect soil from wind erosion,
*
Jujubes are better known to Filipinos as champoy
3
including the use of “drought tolerant crop varieties, no till seeding, conservation
fallow, crop residue management, and the seeding of erosion sensitive land to
perennial forages” (Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, 2014, p. web).
Utilization of geospatial technologies, particularly GIS, was considered by the
United Nations Development Program as a means for both organizing agriculture-
related data and as a development platform for forecasting hazards, such as those in
Samoa and the Lao Peoples’ Democratic Republic (Laganda, 2011, pp. 5 - 6). In
addition, geospatial technologies can integrate both mainstream and indigenous
knowledge (IK) as decision support resources in furthering the aims of community-
based climate resilience, such as the Australian Indigenous Biocultural Knowledge
(AIBK) online database and the Traditional Ecological Knowledge * Prior Art
Database (TEK * PAD), among others (Pert, et al., 2015, pp. 111 - 112).
As the local peasantry will face struggles to maintain productivity in the face of
extreme climatic phenomena, arming them with additional knowledge from the latest
climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies – while at the same time
recognizing that farmers themselves may possess viable IK about adjusting their
practices to suit the situation – will help ensure that the nation’s agriculture sector will
weather the challenges of time. Recognition of the role of IK in climate change
adaptation is best exemplified in Africa (WB Knowledge and Learning Group - Africa
Region, 2004, p. 34):
For centuries, local communities have relied on their indigenous knowledge
and expertise to cope with the challenges posed by harsh environments:
extended droughts, flash floods, epidemic pests, or infertile soils. Farmers
have developed their own systems of weather forecasting by observing cloud
formations, bird migration patterns, seasonal winds and other seasonal or a-
seasonal factors, or worked out complex, sustainable land use systems. In
this sense, IK has evolved into a science and technology of its own, with
farmers and communities performing as scientists and innovators—observing,
drawing conclusions, and taking action.
The combination of climate-related mainstream and local knowledge with
remote sensing and GIS techniques for vulnerability assessment can therefore prove
promising in providing the necessary aid for farmers to cope and endure harsh
climatic phenomena.
4
PART II: OBJECTIVES AND SIGNIFICANCE
5
OBJECTIVES AND SIGNIFICANCE
The primary aim of this study is to develop a methodology using GIS and
remote sensing for determining the vulnerability of local Filipino farmers to adverse
climate effects at the farm parcel level. At this level, farmers are more intimately
linked to the land they are working on, and at the same time farmers will be able to
better understand and appreciate the output and thereby take appropriate actions.
This entails having to provide outputs in vector format because parcels are better
represented as vector features so that they “can be represented at its original
resolution and form without generalization” (Buckley, 1997, pp. 29 - 30).
A secondary aim of this study is to provide a framework of a GIS-based
system called SICATA – Support Information for Climate Adaptation Techniques in
Agriculture (see Fig.1. below) – that will list down possible adaptation
recommendations for vulnerable local farmers in the Philippines when faced with
erratic hydro-meteorologic conditions. The said system is envisioned to serve in
analyzing the effects of an upcoming hydro-meteorologic phenomenon to agriculture-
related parameters such as irrigation conditions and dominant farming practice, and
then recommend adjustment activities such as planting locally accessible crops that
are best suited during the said event. To reduce costs due to software acquisition,
readily available free and open source software (FOSS) for geospatial processing
will be used.
Fig.2.1. The basic input/output diagram for the SICATA recommender system.
6
The study hopes to realize the idea that a pre-event vulnerability assessment
to an erratic climatic phenomenon will help the rural folk make adjustments to their
activities in an effort to avoid adverse effects – and possibly even take advantage of
the climate situation – through active adaptation. The climate situation should not
always be viewed as negative as long as it is within farming communities’ coping
range, and in effect farmers be able to absorb the shock without significant impacts
(ADPC, 2007, p. 34) and still be able to maximize productivity.
The study area

Like the rest of the country, the Municipality of Bulakan, Bulacan “has two
pronounced seasons, the wet season and the dry season”, with the former
commencing in the month of May and ends of November and the latter setting in
during the rest of the year. In general, “the town of Bulakan receives an average
rainfall of 18λ.76 mm” and the resulting surface runoff exits towards Manila Bay
(Bulakan Municipal Planning and Development Office, 2015, p. 19). In its present
state the municipality’s primary industry is in the fisheries sector, although it has a
productive agricultural sector with a yield of 7,647 metric tons of rice (palay) in 2010
(Bulakan Municipal Planning and Development Office, 2015, pp. 49 - 50).
The Bulakan Municipal Government recognized the issue that farmlands
under its domain face a number of problems such as saltwater intrusion, a lack of
irrigation facilities, improper water management and a poor road situation especially
during the rainy season. The local government laid out plans to help the agricultural
sector through development of new and rehabilitation of existing farm-to-market road
networks, irrigation facilities and water impounding technologies. The Municipal
Agriculture Office was also tasked to train farm workers on utilizing modern farming
techniques, multiple cropping and usage of high-yield, disease-resistant varieties of
rice (Bulakan Municipal Planning and Development Office, 2015, pp. 50 - 51).
Pitpitan in Bulakan, Bulacan is a barangay with an area of 2.7632 square
kilometres and a 2010 population of 4,431. (Bulakan Municipal Planning and
Development Office, 2015, p. 34). Classified as a rural area, Pitpitan relies primarily
on agriculture for income generation, although it has some niche industries such as
fish smoking and woodworking.
7
Fig.2.2. General view of Pitpitan, Bulakan, Bulacan in Google Earth. A detailed map of the
barangay is provided in the Methodology section.
Pitpitan was selected as the study area for this research since majority of its
inhabitants depends on agriculture for their primary income source, making it a
potential place for gathering farmer folk knowledge on climate adaptation practices. It
was also selected due to its convenient accessibility from Metro Manila – it is a
single bus ride away from Quezon City.
Scope and limitations

This study aims to develop a GIS/RS-assisted climate adaptation tool for
assisting farmers in coping with adverse climate situations. As such, the author
focused on the establishment of the methodology in assessing a farmer’s
vulnerability, through his or her farm plot, to climate phenomena, and baseline
information production from which subsequent analyses of differences can be
assessed.
The following, therefore, were the considerations made in pursuing this study:
• Because water is the most limiting factor in agriculture (Kumhálová & Moudrý,
2014, p. 91), and because Pitpitan’s farmers themselves indicate that they are
more concerned with the absence of water than the excess of it (Catindig,
2015), this study prioritized on forming adaptation techniques that farmers can
use in an impending drought scenario. Adaptation practices for times when
8
flooding is expected were also researched and developed, but not as
extensive as the ones made for drought conditions.
• This study was limited to making use of data that is free and readily available
in the Internet (such as from USGS EarthExplorer and PhilGIS), and data that
concerned government agencies were willing to share – and suitability of
acquired and provided data was also assessed considering the size of the
study area (Pitpitan has a total land area of around 2.76 km2). The issue on
data suitability due of scale was particularly relevant to the comparative
assessment of the performance of Landsat 8 normalized difference vegetation
index (NDVI) data against that from the Moderate-resolution Imaging
Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Terra NDVI. In addition, Landsat 8 images are
limited to those obtained in the years 2014 and 2015 and to those that passed
quality control as discussed in the Methodology section on NDVI
determination.
• This study made use of the agricultural drought vulnerability index (ADVI)
(Murthy, Laxman, & Sesha Sai, 2015) as the primary determinant of farmer
vulnerability for possible use in SICATA. There are other potentially viable
methodologies such as the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) using
Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) data (Yaduvanshi, Srivastava, &
Pandey, 2015), combined SPI and Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) (Dutta, et
al., 2015), Evaporative Stress Index (ESI) (Anderson, et al., 2016), a
combined deficit index (CDI) of four base parameters and other data (Vyas, et
al., 2015), a hidden Markov model (HMM) (Ramadas & Govindaraju, 2015),
and Drought Risk Index (Kim, Park, Yoo, & Kim, 2015). ADVI is selected over
the others because of five things:
o ADVI is specifically aimed at assessing agricultural vulnerability to
drought events
o The ADVI study area, Andhra Pradesh, is located within latitudes that
is similar to the Philippines, and thus has a generally similar tropical
climate
o It takes into account not only hydro-meteorological conditions but also
geological and socioeconomic factors to assess a farming community’s
vulnerability
9
o While most of the aforementioned vulnerability index studies, save the
one from South Korea, produce raster-based outputs, the ADVI study’s
output is mapped in vector format – an especially useful facet as the
author intends to issue recommendations for individual parcels and not
only for the community as a whole
o The ADVI study made use of a methodology that includes
socioeconomic factors – an important component of adaptive capacity
determination – to a certain degree, whereas the South Korean study
made use of its output to analyze socioeconomic consequences
• It must be noted that ADVI is a data-centric index, that is, it is highly reliant on
the availability of wide-spanning time-series information such as a decade’s
worth of satellite NDVI and rainfall data (for example, the ADVI study made
use of actual twelve year rainfall records (Murthy, Laxman, & Sesha Sai,
2015, p. 165)). The author was limited to making use of what data is readily
available for the Philippines as stated earlier to assess the potential of ADVI.
• While the table of recommendations, developed as an aid to provide farmers
with recommended actions depending on their vulnerability rating, was
designed with expandability and adaptability in mind once further studies are
pursued, the items contained within were derived to cater to Pitpitan’s specific
needs.
10
PART III: RELATED LITERATURE
11
RELATED LITERATURE
A. On Climate Change And Designing Farming Communities’ Resiliency
Programs
The changing climate and its effects on agriculture
Vegetation removes carbon dioxide (CO2) – a potent greenhouse gas (GHG)
– from the atmosphere through respiration, where carbon atoms are stored into a
plant’s biomass and the remaining oxygen released. But according to the Fourth
Assessment Report (AR4) of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC), “human activities over the last 200 years have resulted in higher
atmospheric CO2 concentrations than experienced at any time within the last
650,000 years. Furthermore, deforestation has hampered the Earth’s ability to
remove CO2 from the atmosphere”. Such increase in atmospheric CO2 and other
GHG’s has a profound effect on surface temperatures, with a projected increase of
1.1 to 6.4 degrees Celsius by the year 2100 (Hyder, 2011, p. 132).
This projected rise in global surface temperatures will have varying effects on
agriculture – and by varying, that means not all effects are negative. According to the
IPCC AR4, there will be slight increase in crop yields for the mid- and high-latitude
regions, but in low-latitude areas – particularly mentioned are tropical and seasonally
dry areas – unfavourable yield patterns are expected (Hyder, 2011, p. 133). In the
face of a warming climate for the next 20 to 30 years at the range of 0.3 to 0.4 °C per
decade, agricultural productivity growth in the tropics, where the bulk of the world’s
poor currently reside and find their livelihoods, is likely to be threatened (Hertel &
Lobell, 2014, pp. 562 - 563). And most key investors and stakeholders in agricultural
development in the Third World recognize that at the end of the day “it is the poor
and vulnerable who will be the most susceptible to changes in climate as they occur”
(Cooper, et al., 2008, p. 25).
With the Philippines located within the tropical low-latitudes, reduced
agricultural productivity is of concern especially with the need to sustainably feed the
nation’s large population – pegged at 92.34 million according to the 2010 Census of
Population (NSO, 2012, p. web). The Philippine government affirmed that agriculture
is the backbone of the country’s food security, that it represents one fifth of the total
economy, and that it generates one third of the country’s total employment – and
climate change could adversely affect the sector and those depending on it (DENR,
2010, p. 73):
12
While the country is traditionally exposed to the many hazards and risks from
typhoons and droughts, the outstanding threat of climate change is the
undefined shifting of rainfall patterns and rising temperatures. Without proper
scientific guidance, extreme weather variability creates confusion to farmers
with respect to planting seasons and plant varieties to cultivate.
In the case of rice farming – of which most Philippine peasants rely heavily on
– current practices promote genetic uniformity and wasteful use of water and fossil
fuels, produce GHGs that contribute to global warming due to heavily fertilized,
continuously flooded rice fields, and cause soil and water pollution due to misuse of
inorganic fertilizers and agrochemicals (Mendoza, 2015, p. web). The latter
statements on GHG emissions from rice production exacerbates the national
situation, requiring the search for ways to reduce such emissions while still
maintaining productivity.
Climate change does not only affect food quantity, but also food quality. As
the fruit and vegetable trade intensified in the past years, so did the number of
reported microbiological hazards, pesticide residues and mycotoxins which “may
indicate inadequacies in the control activities currently implemented in companies”
(Kirezieva, Jacxsens, van Boekel, & Luning, 2015, p. 94).
Problems on adaptation measures

Adaptation is defined by the IPCC as “the adjustment in natural or human
systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which
moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities”; but others prefer much broader
definitions, characterizing adaptation as “any action that improves the welfare of
society enough to compensate for losses related to climate change” (Lobell, 2014, p.
72). Such wide-ranging definitions allow inclusion of activities that may not directly
address climate change per se – such as effective usage of scarce resources to
improve welfare or some other outcome of interest – and the danger is that “they
lose all meaning for a key purpose of defining adaptation, which is to assess the
impacts of GHG emissions” (Lobell, 2014, p. 72).
Caution should then be taken when it comes to formulating climate change
adaptation strategies because it is a “wicked” problem, that is, it is a social-ecological
problem that can be suppressed or managed but not solved, and causes conflict
among stakeholder groups due to changing values over time. Being a wicked
13
problem, it is “ill-formulated, based on conflicting information, and faced with
stakeholder groups that disagree on norms and values and goals” (Perry, 2015, pp.
2 - 3). In addition, proposed solutions meant to counter climate change may be
lacking, inappropriate, or even misleading, with wealthy businessmen and powerful
politicians likely being more concerned with masking problems or concealing
symptoms, thus simply making efforts to reduce some of the negative impacts of
climate change. (Vatican Press, 2015, pp. 21 - 22).
Adaptation practices, therefore, while ultimately aimed at helping farmers
maintain productivity so as to make them economically stable, should more or less
also consider GHG emission from these activities.
The need for climate-related policy

The natural ecosystem is an exemplary example of efficiency: plants
synthesize nutrients to feed herbivores, who are in turn fed upon by carnivores, and
who in turn produce organic waste that give rise to new plants (Vatican Press, 2015,
pp. 17 - 18). Present industrial systems, on the other hand, have not developed the
capacity to absorb and reuse waste and by-products, resulting in a “throwaway
culture” that affects the entire planet. Developing circular models of production,
consumption and reuse, therefore, are potentially significant in addressing and
countering climate change (Vatican Press, 2015, pp. 17 - 18).
But it will take substantial willpower from government institutions and
businesses to adopt circular production models such as sustainable agriculture –
understood as agricultural production that ensures adequacy of food production,
does not harm the resource base, is economically viable, and enhances quality of
life (Wall & Smit, 2005, p. 115). And it seems that climate change adaptation is very
much connected to sustainable agriculture; indeed, it is desirable to have an
ecologically-friendly agricultural activity that can still produce good quantities to feed
mouths, but such linkages between the two are rarely addressed in literature
pertinent to both (Wall & Smit, 2005, p. 115).
Given the need for government willpower in climate-friendly pursuits, climate
change adaptation, as it seems, should begin by mainstreaming practices in policy
building and development planning, with ‘‘mainstreaming’’ referring to the ways in
which disaster risk reduction is included in national, provincial and community-level
economic and social planning (Richmond & Sovacool, 2012, p. 298). Bangladesh
14
(Ayers, Huq, Wright, Faisal, & Hussain, 2014, p. 298) and the Vanuatu islands
(Richmond & Sovacool, 2012, p. 846) are examples of such successful
mainstreaming efforts in combating climate change effects.
In the case of the Philippines, the primary national policy on climate change is
the Philippine Strategy on Climate Change Adaptation, aimed for full implementation
by the year 2022. It states that “the sector’s overall adaptation strategy is focused on
building a resilient agriculture sector, rural communities, and productions systems
through informed and participatory decision making, efficient water use, and
sustainable ecosystem-based management” (DENR, 2010, p. 75). For agriculture in
Luzon Island, where the study area is located, “the immediate need is to establish
science-cum-farmer based real time spatial and temporal data, information and
technologies for food production, prevent CC impacts from becoming disasters, and
prevent conflicts among dam water users” (DENR, 2010, p. 75). This “immediate
need” for spatio-temporal data (i.e. a monthly rainfall distribution map based on time-
series rainfall data) can be achieved with the use of geospatial technologies such as
remote sensing and GIS, which is to be discussed later.
But scholars and practitioners from development and disaster risk reduction
fields have repeatedly pointed out that ‘stand-alone’ approaches targeting very
specific climate risks “are unlikely to be effective where they do not also address the
underlying factors related to development that make people vulnerable”; also, using
the impacts of hazards as the starting point for adaptation to environmental hazards
“was misguided, because it ignores the ways in which local and wider contexts
determine people’s vulnerability” (Ayers, Huq, Wright, Faisal, & Hussain, 2014, p.
294). In short, instead of developing adaptation programs during or after a disaster
event, adaptation programs before an event is more viable.
How do we know, then, if a sector is indeed vulnerable to climate change?
One way to approach this issue is by determining the sector’s coping range and
adaptive capacity.
Coping range and adaptive capacity

Coping range in the face of climate change is defined as the range in which
the effects of climate conditions are beneficial or negative but tolerable”, and beyond
it the damage or loss are no longer tolerable and a society (or system) is said to be
vulnerable. (ADPC, 2007, p. 34). But defining this coping range is a difficult
15
undertaking, as “the exact nature and extent of the impacts of climate change on
temperature and rainfall distribution patterns remain uncertain” (Cooper, et al., 2008,
p. 25).
Knowing an individual’s coping range in the face of climate change may be
difficult to assess; but be it narrow or wide, all will benefit from community programs
on improving adaptive capacity – “the ability of a system to adjust its characteristics
or behaviour in order to expand its coping range under existing climate variability or
future climate conditions” (ADPC, 2007, pp. 34 - 35). Adaptive capacity can be
expressed in two dimensions: generic capacities, addressing deficiencies in basic
human development needs (e.g., health, education, livelihood security, mobility); and
specific capacities, defined as those capacities that address the tools and skills
needed to anticipate and effectively respond to specific (climatic) threats (Eakin,
Lemos, & Nelson, 2014, p. 2). Systems aimed at assisting farmers in adapting to
climate phenomena will fall on the latter category, but researchers must also take
into consideration the generic capacities of the farming community as a whole so as
to avoid falling into unsustainable situations (Eakin, Lemos, & Nelson, 2014, pp. 3 -
4).
Fig.3.1. Analytical heuristic of the relationship between generic and specific capacities,
stressing the importance of balance between the two dimensions in promoting adaptation as
shown at the upper-right quarter (Eakin, Lemos, & Nelson, 2014, p. 4)
Wealthier and higher-income farmers have a greater propensity to adopt

agricultural innovations and take more of associated risks, and “are likely to
significantly increase the likelihood of planting trees, adjusting planting dates, using
different crop varieties and using supplementary irrigation as adaptation choices”
16
(Alauddin & Sarker, 2014, p. 205). Lower-income farmers, on the other hand, do not
enjoy the same advantages and are more likely to be sceptical of innovations; thus
the design of adaptation programs should allow usage by both lower-income and
higher-income farmers, with the former given priority.
Agricultural adaptation to climate effects has two primary approaches: the
scenario approach and the vulnerability approach. (Wall & Smit, 2005, pp. 117 - 118)
The scenario approach usually begins with some assumed future climate focused on
global warming, then the model will be downscaled to estimate local climate and to
model agricultural impacts, most commonly crop yields under controlled
management (Wall & Smit, 2005, p. 117). This is the standard approach for most
simulation-dependent adaptation tools.
The vulnerability approach, on the other hand, considers adaptation strategies
as “a process involving the socioeconomic and policy environments, producers’
perceptions, and elements of decision-making”. This approach implicitly
acknowledges that farming systems are highly integrated – producers rarely alter
production or management practices solely to reduce climate and weather risks –
and climate related adaptations form part of producers’ overall risk management
strategy and vary according to farm types and locations” (Wall & Smit, 2005, pp. 117
- 118). This approach assesses a target beneficiary’s financial, social and
geographical position as part of the adaptation decision making process, and this is
deemed more suitable for this study’s output.
17
B. The Roles Of Mainstream And Indigenous Knowledge On Farmers’
Adaptation
The role of indigenous knowledge in climate adaptation
The scientific world has brought an unprecedented rate of change to the
world. However, its approaches to knowledge generation are, in a historic
perspective, a very recent phenomenon – and not everything is solvable by scientific
inquiry (WB Knowledge and Learning Group - Africa Region, 2004, p. 1). And while
science has brought about tremendous benefits (better food production, disease
prevention via vaccination, swift communication and goods transport to name a few),
there are still “crises of hunger, HIV/AIDS, illiteracy, isolation, and conflicts and abject
poverty”. Notwithstanding the ongoing debate about the causes of poverty, “science and
technology alone cannot provide all the answers or solutions to these unsolved problems”
(WB Knowledge and Learning Group - Africa Region, 2004, p. 1).
As scientists struggled “to respond to global challenges, they have
increasingly distanced themselves from local ways of solving problems”; and as an
alternative to solving issues that science cannot answer, Africans espouse the idea
of indigenous knowledge (IK) – information “that women and men, families and
communities had developed themselves for centuries” (WB Knowledge and Learning
Group - Africa Region, 2004, pp. 1 - 2). Utilizing folk wisdom and cultural assets can
be used as a resource “that can help to solve local problems, a resource to help
grow more and better food, to maintain healthy lives, to share wealth, to prevent
conflict, to manage local affairs, and thus contribute to global solutions” (WB
Knowledge and Learning Group - Africa Region, 2004, pp. 1 - 2). IK is a valuable
national resource because (Mbilinyi, Tumbo, Mahoo, Senkondo, & Hatibu, 2005, p.
793):
a) It includes practical concepts that can be used to facilitate communication
among people coming from different backgrounds such as agricultural
researchers and extension workers;
b) It helps to assure that the end users of specific agricultural development
projects are involved in developing technologies appropriate to their
needs;
c) It forms the basis for decision making, operationalized through indigenous
organizations, and provides the foundation for local innovations and
experimentation;
18
d) It is cost-effective since it builds on local development efforts, enhancing
sustainability and capacity building; and,
e) IK systems can play an important facilitating role in establishing a dialogue
between rural populations and development workers
The growth of the information and communications technology (ICT) sector
should make IK dissemination and management much easier, and Web-based
technologies are at the center of this growth because “they are convenient to use,
easy to develop and maintain and provide one of the quickest and most far-reaching
means of conveying information” – provided, of course, if these technologies are
used within, and for facilitating, a culture of information sharing, relationship building
and trust (Jain, 2006, pp. 54 - 58).
In view of this important role of IK, the opinion of farmers – being future
stakeholders of adaptation programs developed for them – should be heeded, as
“impacts of climate change in agriculture are location- and context-specific”, and the
local knowledge they possess are better suited in the area they actually work on
(Lee, Edmeades, De Nys, McDonald, & Janssen, 2014, p. 79). For example, farmers
themselves can and do perceive changes in rainfall and temperature that are as
accurate as scientific meteorological records (Falaki, Akangbe, & Ayinde, 2013, p.
139), and they can make use of this perception ability to formulate adjustments.
Also, community-based pilot projects can help in the dissemination of mainstream
projects, such as introducing climate-resistant strains of crops, adapting livestock to
more extreme weather, promoting community land-use plans so farmers can share
resources and arable farming sites” (Richmond & Sovacool, 2012, p. 847). It is thus
imperative to get farmers involved in designing and programming adaptation
practices to improve its long-term acceptability.
Crops and practices for drought events

In general, water is the most limiting factor in agriculture (Kumhálová &
Moudrý, 2014, p. 91), but different crops respond differently to temperature and
elevated carbon dioxide levels. For example, the so-called “C3 crops” such as rice,
wheat, barley and rye require lower optimal temperatures (15 to 30°C) while “C4
crops” such as maize, sorghum and millet require higher (30 to 40°C). C4 crops also
need more carbon dioxide to function than C3 crops (Hertel & Lobell, 2014, p. 563).
19
Such implies that that while there are certain crops that will likely suffer from
increased temperature and CO2 concentrations, there are also those that will benefit.
For example, among those suitable under dry conditions in the temperate
United States are corn, sorghum, alfalfa, native trees and potatoes (Wildtsoe, 1911,
pp. 243 - 254); while in temperate Australia, the most tolerant crops to high
temperature are asparagus, cabbages, carrots, cucumbers, eggplants, onions,
parsley, potatoes, radishes, shallots, silverbeets, snow peas, sweet corn, sweet
potatoes, tomatoes, watermelons and zucchinis (Queensland Department of
Agriculture and Fisheries, 2014). In the tropical Philippines, mung beans, sponge
gourds, pumpkins, string beans, eggplants, tomatoes, watermelons and centrosema
forage can be grown in unusually hot conditions in lowland farms (Catindig, 2015)
(Carillo & Delos Santos, 2016).
Crop diversification in farming fields can take advantage of the
aforementioned differences and allow farmers to remain productive, being able to
grow and harvest crops surviving a climate aberration in a growing season. With only
20 crops playing a prominent role in the human diet as staples (mostly cereals such
as wheat, maize, rice, barley, sorghum and millet) (Vigouroux, Barnaud, Scarcelli, &
Thuillet, 2011, p. 451), and with domestication and continuous cultivation of the
same crops causing genetic diversity to stagnate, supplementation of staple
production by other crops or means should be desired for continued income.
To address the issue on the survivability of staple crops, the practice of
deliberate and scientific crop hybridization is done to increase yield and maximize
profit, and at some point make them resilient. For rice, “hybrid rice technology
exploits the phenomenon of hybrid vigor (heterosis) to increase the yield potential of
rice varieties with reported yield advantage of 15–20% over inbred commercial high-
yielding varieties” (Xangsayasane, Xie, Hernandez, & Boirromeo, 2010, p. 18).
And there seems to be a paradoxical relationship between national
development and crop adaptation to climate phenomena. Whereas farmers in
developed countries make use of a few “tried and tested” high-yield crop varietals,
farmers in developing countries have to make use of whatever is available and
affordable in their areas regardless of origin – in effect unconsciously helping push
crop genetic diversity, and by extension, vigor (Vigouroux, Barnaud, Scarcelli, &
Thuillet, 2011, p. 455).
20
Traditional smallholder farms, for example, regenerate their own seeds using
landrace varieties, causing adaptive genetic diversity in their crops as compared to
the former (Vigouroux, Barnaud, Scarcelli, & Thuillet, 2011, p. 453). The use of
highland rice from Jammu and Kashmir in India for Nepalese agriculture
(Bajracharya, Steele, Jarvis, Sthapit, & Witcombe, 2006, p. 328) and the use of local
rice varieties together with IRRI-produced hybrids for cross-breeding in the Lao PDR
(Xangsayasane, Xie, Hernandez, & Boirromeo, 2010, p. 23) are some examples of
the advantage of using landrace varieties for crop production.
A notable study of the positive effects of local farming practices to crop vigor
and adaptability was done with pearl millet farmers in the Sahel region of Niger in
Africa, where they maintain a practice of relying on their own seeds from previous
harvests to be used in the following season. Following an observed major change in
rainfall patterns beginning in the early 1λ70’s, researchers gathered millet samples in
1976 and 2003 to assess the consequences of environmental change. They
discovered that there was a significant adaptive shift in the 2003 samples in the form
of early flowering and shorter spikes, suggesting an evolutionary change from 1973.
Thus, local farmers’ practice of keeping seeds for the next harvest have allowed slow
but effective adaptation of their crops to the changing climate (Vigouroux, Barnaud,
Scarcelli, & Thuillet, 2011, pp. 453 - 454).
Tapping on crops grown by smallholder farms that continuously cultivate via
using their own seeds can therefore be a helpful means to keep productivity at
profitable rates in the face of climate variability, either through direct use or as
sources of genetic information for hybridization purposes. But it must be
acknowledged that significant results out of this practice can take years to take effect
(Wildtsoe, 1911, p. 233).
Crops and practices for extreme flooding events

Viewing the other side of crop climatic vulnerability – extreme flooding – crops
that are submerged in water suffer from hypoxia or apoxia, a situation where oxygen
levels are depleted or even eliminated due to the denial of air via the presence of
water. Submersion can drastically reduce oxygen gas availability because it diffuses
slowly in water, restricting aerobic respiration in the process (Pucciariello & Perata,
2012, p. 148). The “mega varities” that are grown as crops in Asia – varieties of
21
lowland rice, barley, maize, soybean and wheat – are unfortunately not tolerant of
excess water (Ahmed, et al., 2013, p. 2).
Flooding does not only affect the crops that may be submerged, but also the
very land they grow on. Excessive erosion of fertile topsoil due to floodwater flow
and subsequent deposition of debris and sediment from other areas can render the
land unusable for crop growing. There can be cases where tillage can correct the
situation, and in such cases, soil fertility should be restored by encouraging microbial
and fungal activity through the use of “cover crops” ranging from legumes to small
grain (Wilson, Olson, & Callan, 2011, p. web).
Plants capable of living in flooded environments, with rice being cited as one
good example, have adaptations that allow them to survive the situation – but
survival responses vary, even within rice varieties (Pucciariello & Perata, 2012, pp.
148 - 149). For example, one rice variety survives submergence by rapidly growing
leaf extensions to gain access to atmospheric oxygen (though this energy-expensive
adaptation must succeed or the plant still withers), while another variety survives by
slowing metabolic processes and conserving energy while underwater (IRRI, n.a.).
There had been productive researches on submergence resilience done by
IRRI. In 2007, the organization developed a submergence-resistant rice plant that
incorporates a gene isolated from an Indian rice variety. The SUB1 gene, as IRRI
calls it, gives rice the capability to survive up to 14 days of being submerged by
making the plant dormant and conserve energy until the floodwater recedes. A time-
lapse video of the performance of this submergence-resistant rice variety provides a
striking proof of its effectiveness (IRRI, n.a.). For the other “mega varieties”,
conventional and marker-assisted breeding and plant genetic engineering for
flooding tolerance is being done, with the SUB1 rice gene discovery being cited as a
very successful innovation (Ahmed, et al., 2013, pp. 3 - 6).
Tapping on indigenous knowledge of farming communities that are used to
frequent flooding can also be key in maintaining agricultural productivity despite
submergence cases. In the Uttar Pradesh region in northern India, farmers’
traditional knowledge and the communities’ need to adapt to the growing flooding
situation due to climate change are being tapped for adaptive measures (Wajih,
2008, p. 24). During the preventive period from June to August, early short duration
paddy rice, maize, watermelon, okra and pointed gourd are planted for stockpiling
purposes. In the coexistence period from August to October, or the period when the
22
community has to live with floods, guavas, bamboo and lotus are planted besides
paddy rice. And during the rehabilitative post-flood period for the rest of the months,
late-sowing paddy rice, alfalfa, mustard, coriander and Arkil pea crops are used
(Wajih, 2008, p. 24).
Agricultural climatic adaptation practices outside the Philippines

Below is a table of some climatic adaptation practices in other nations:
Nation Practice Activities Sources
Canada Prairie management Growth of native pasture (Wall & Smit,
through crop and forage; conservation tillage 2005)
enterprise diversification, for erosion control; setting up
land and water of windbreaks and efficient
management, and irrigation and water
livestock management sequestration systems
Thailand High-income crop- Combined milk, rice and hay (Poathong &
livestock system; rice production; alkali treatment Phaikaew,
straw recycling as cattle and supplementation of rice 2011);
feed straw feed with urea and (Jackson,
minerals 1978)
Egypt Recycling of rice stalks Use of rice stalks as material (Allam &
to discourage GHG for brick production Garas, 2010,
emission through p. 81)
incineration
Pakistan Recycling of agricultural Powdered pomegranate and (Naseer,
waste as natural lemon peels as antifungal Sultana, Khan,
preservatives agents for stored rice Naseer, &
Nigam, 2014,
pp. 425 - 427)
India Aakash Ganga (River A network of rainwater (Toner, 2015)
from the Sky), a collection systems that leads
culturally acceptable to two reservoirs: one for the
engineered rainwater participating homeowner and
harvesting system in the other for the community,
23
Rajasthan addressing the need for fair
use of water; land containing
the community reservoir is
used to grow crops to
generate money for system
maintenance
Table 3.1. Agricultural climatic adaptation practices in other countries
Agricultural climatic adaptation practices in the Philippines

One of the most frequently used adaptation methods in the Philippines, done
as early as the 1λ50’s, is rainwater harvesting via the implementation of small water
impounding projects (SWIPs), aimed at collecting and storing direct rainfall and
surface runoff for future use. Such facilities can not only prevent flooding, but can
also provide water for future use, especially as the weather becomes more severe
and unpredictable due to climate change (Contreras, Sandoval, & Tejada, 2013, pp.
56 - 67). But SWIP deployment depends generally on topography and financial
sustainability: SWIPs can be impractical to deploy in lowland areas (most are
deployed in upland areas with hilly or mountainous terrain) (Contreras, Sandoval, &
Tejada, 2013, p. 57), have expensive maintenance costs, and may end up poorly
supported by local government units (LGUs) especially with inactive Small Water
Impounding System Associations (SWISA) (Contreras, Sandoval, & Tejada, 2013, p.
64).
Another intervention done by the government to support farmers, especially
during dry spells, is cloud seeding, of which an example is a ₱3 to ₱4 million (around
US$68,000 – US$91,000) program implemented to aid drought-stricken banana
plantation growers in Davao del Norte (DA, 2015, p. web). Such a program is too
expensive for small farming communities.
And one more, perhaps most internationally-recognized, farmer support
activity being done is on scientific research for climate-adaptable rice strains, with
the Philippines being home to the International Rice Research Institute (IRRI), the
“world’s leading center for better rice” (Mendoza, 2015, p. web). But as a nonprofit
organization, IRRI relies heavily on financial support via donations from CGIAR,
philanthropic foundations, international organizations, national governments,
universities and the private sector (IRRI, n.a., p. web). Also, its researchers are long
24
being criticized by environmentalists for working on genetically modified organisms
(GMOs) such as golden rice (Mendoza, 2015, p. web), although IRRI maintains that
farmers are free to choose what or what not to farm, and that their outputs are
merely tools for a variety of conditions that they can use or not depending on their
knowledge of their land. In addition, IRRI researchers clarified that governments and
regulators have the right to ensure farmers use safe and environmentally friendly
practices (Finkel, 2014, p. web).
In recent years an irrigation technique was designed by IRRI initially to
conserve water, but was found out to be beneficial in other aspects. Known as
alternate wetting and drying (AWD), this technique makes use of “a cycle of draining
and reflooding of rice paddies, keeping an optimum water level at any particular
time” and can save as much as 25% of the irrigation water supply (Joven, 2014).
AWD also helps reduce GHG emissions, specifically methane – a GHG caused by
flooding of rice fields – by up to 50%. Intensive research by scientists from IRRI and
its partners helped AWD “evolve into one of the most mature GHG mitigation
methods in the agriculture sector”, and could “thus become a key component for
GHG mitigation in many Asian countries” (Joven, 2014). A feasibility study for AWD
warns, however, that the emission of nitrous oxide (N2O) – a GHG 298 times more
effective in trapping heat than carbon dioxide or methane – has to be studied when
using the technique (Siopongco, Wassman, & Sander, 2013, pp. 2 - 3). And of
course there are other sources of GHG emissions in farmlands that are not
addressed by AWD, such as livestock methane release due to an unnatural pasture
diet (Silverman, 2007).
AWD uses a simple monitoring system to see if a field still has enough water
for rice to thrive on. Monitoring personnel make use of a 30-cm long, 15-cm wide
perforated PVC tube that is carefully hammered into the rice field’s soil. By
measuring the level of water inside the tube, farmers will know if there is still enough
water underneath their fields before requiring reflooding of their fields. (IRRI, n.a.).
25
Fig.3.2. A PVC pipe used in monitoring for the AWD technique (IRRI, n.a.)
When it comes to adaptation practices done by farmers themselves, an

assessment was done with a peasant community in Tanauan, Batangas. The
research found out that the top three practices they perform are to undertake
spiritual practices (e.g. pray), to plant crops other than rice, and to change food
consumption habits (e.g. cheaper food) (Acosta-Michlik & Espaldon, 2008, p. 559).
This finding shows that rural communities rely on a “hope for the best” attitude to
address a situation that is otherwise beyond their control – and if things turn worse,
they would resort to sacrificing their normal consumption habits to save money and
to survive until the next harvest season.
Farmers’ willingness to adopt new techniques

One problem of climate change adaptation planning, with its implicit aim of
reducing community vulnerability, is that it is “ill-structured” (Lieske, 2015, p. 98), that
is, because the climate change problem includes “complex social, environmental and
economic dimensions” – the first item listed in particular having intangible indicators
“that will impinge upon and determine the acceptability of any potential risk reduction
solution” - the goals and objectives of community stakeholders may not be completely
definable in the minds of the stakeholders themselves, may be competing or even in
opposition. And the efficacy of possible candidate solutions will be plagued by
uncertainty, putting the strategy’s acceptability further in question (Lieske, 2015, p.
98). In addition, drafted strategy plans may be doubted by end-users due to the idea
that they themselves do not see scientific findings of threats as problems that will
affect them in the first place. Also, distance from irrigation sources was observed to
26
affect Filipino farming communities’ attitudes on adaptation practices (M.G. Carillo,
personal communication, August 19, 2015). In the case of Bulacan province, farmers
living in municipalities closer to the Angat Dam are willing to take risks in adopting
government-designed climate adaptation programs because of the prospects and
promises of better yields. And in the case of program failure, they will still be able to
produce something due to the abundance of water for irrigation purposes. Farmers
located further away from the dam (including this paper’s study area), on the other
hand, are more sceptical, and believe they are better off sticking to tried and tested
ways of production (M.G. Carillo, personal communication, August 19, 2015).
To somehow ease the introduction of “foreign knowledge” into farming
communities, tapping someone highly knowledgeable of the situation from the
communities themselves might help, as demonstrated by the story of a woman in
India who successfully brought new ideas into her community – and where outside
experts failed (WB Knowledge and Learning Group - Africa Region, 2004, p. 6):
In rural India a socially disenfranchised woman gained acceptance in her
community and beyond by challenging the local context through her technical
ingenuity and her capacity to broker external knowledge into the
communities. She convinced communities to adopt measures for the
improvement of their lives… by introducing improved land and dairy cattle
management, first to her own landholding, then to her community, and finally
throughout her region. Extension agents had hitherto failed to achieve a
similar outcome, primarily because the community perceived the extension
agents as outsiders who could “not understand and appreciate the local
context and conditions.” Having lived in conditions similar to or even worse
than those of the other community members provided the woman change
agent not only with the credibility to promote change and enhance capacity,
but with the critical knowledge of where to start, and how to get broader
acceptance of new ideas.
With these in mind, convincing farmers to take advantage of geospatial
technologies – being external and alien sources of knowledge – as tools for planning
agricultural activities is going to be a challenge. And although studies on farmer
behaviour (in the face of climate change) falls outside the scope of this study, doing
so is nevertheless important since it gives researchers insight on the probability that
adaptation measures will be undertaken to counteract its negative effects. In
particular, cognition is an important determinant of vulnerability because it allows
27
farmers “to receive and exchange information, to perceive and evaluate risks, to
identify and weigh options, to make decisions and take actions, and to modify and
update their profile according to the outcome of these actions” (Acosta-Michlik &
Espaldon, 2008, p. 554). With field activities being potentially expensive and risky,
computerized simulation models can provide a viable alternative to study behaviour
(Li, Chen, Wang, & Feng, 2014, p. 317), and agent-based modelling (ABM) can be a
promising tool for analyzing and simplifying otherwise complex human behaviour,
although there are not many researches on the empirical application of ABM to
vulnerability science (Acosta-Michlik & Espaldon, 2008, p. 555).
28
C. The Role Of Geospatial Technologies In Farming Communities’ Resilience
Geospatial technologies and computer science in aiding agriculture to face
climate change
A substantial number of researches prove the usefulness of geospatial
technologies for agricultural climatic adaptation, from resource monitoring to waste
management to active adaptation. Below are such studies to name a few:
• In India, remotely sensed data products (TRMM and MODIS) were used in
assessing crop responses via calculated vegetation indices that can
accurately capture cropping patterns, including crop phenology, crop type,
and cropping intensity (Mondal, Jain, DeFries, Galford, & Small, 2015, p. 22).
• Also in India, combined remote sensing and GIS techniques allow the
determination of suitable sites for rainwater harvesting, even allowing ranking
of potential sites as either ‘good, moderate or poor’ (Jha, Chowdary, Kulkarni,
& Mal, 2014, pp. 99 - 110).
• In China, synthetic aperture radar (SAR), with its inherent advantages over
optical systems in penetrating through cloud cover and its “all-weather, day
and night acquisition capabilities and sensitivity to surface characteristics”
(Koppe, et al., 2013, p. 568) was tested for its potential in monitoring rice
growth by assessing biomass (Koppe, et al., 2013, p. 569) – and learned that
“growth stages of rice generate a distinctive backscattering signature
that can be easily separated from other land use classes” (Koppe, et al.,
2013, p. 579).
• In India, remote sensing and GIS was used in assessing the potential volume
of rice straw for biomass energy generation in the Assam region, since
“agricultural residue such as rice straw has been recognized as a potential
biomass energy feedstock”, including, but not limited to, “heat and electricity
production, bioethanol and biogas” as attractive options (Hiloidhari & Baruah,
2014, p. 126). Researchers achieved this with the use of high resolution
WorldView-2 images to classify rice farmlands from other land uses and finally
estimate the production of rice straw via a farm’s covered area (Hiloidhari &
Baruah, 2014, pp. 127 - 128).
• In Brazil, researchers made use of geospatial technologies to determine
current and future agriclimatological zones that are suitable for growing
healthy and safe tomatoes (dos Santos, et al., 2016, p. 430).
29
• Precision agriculture using geospatial technologies allows for optimum
profitability, sustainability and environmental protection of farming activities in
optimal regions (Zhao, et al., 2013, p. 23), achieved largely by analyses of
topography, because topographic features play an essential role in
determining not only the quantity of water that will be potentially available in a
planned farming site, but also of erosion potential that affects water quality
(Kumhálová & Moudrý, 2014, p. 91). In India, a combined analysis of Cartosat
I, Landsat ETM+ and SRTM satellite images (for irrigation potential,
vegetation status and relief terrain, respectively) was done in assessing
agricultural potential for the Bhima-Ujjani irrigation project in Maharasthra, and
its researchers found out that the north-central position, with its very high
irrigation potential, very low aridity and very low slope grades, has the
greatest agriculture potential (Kumbhar, Choudhury, Sen, & Singh, 2014, pp.
279, 283)
For the Philippines, the Philippine Strategy on Climate Change Adaptation
indicates that, by 2022, Luzon Island’s agriculture sector should benefit from, among
others, strengthening research on climate change related production loss and gain,
starting pilot projects on community-based GIS-RS mapping and GIS-RS based
climate intelligence network, setting up of automated rain gauges and synoptic
stations, and protecting highland regions with the help of community land use maps
and agriculture/agro-forestry zones (DENR, 2010, pp. 77 - 78) – of which geospatial
technologies can be helpful in implementing.
Issues on the acceptability of geospatial technologies to agricultural

adaptation
One of the major hindrances in utilizing geospatial technologies such as GIS
in highly applicable fields such as agriculture is that “many potential users are not
equipped to take full advantage of the comprehensive spatial and visualization
analysis features provided” (Liu, Timbal, Mo, & Fairweather, 2011, p. 141) GIS-
based spatial decision support systems (SDSS’s) are especially prone to
underutilization, despite significant investments in time and resources in procuring
them (Wenkel, et al., 2013, p. S170) and the growing body of applications illustrating
their utility for adaptation planning (Lieske, 2015, p. 98), because (Wenkel, et al.,
2013, p. S170):
30
• DSS’s are inadequately tailored to users’ needs
• DSS’s are insufficiently related to the specific problem at hand
• DSS’s are too complicated and rarely interactive, and there is a lack
of transparency
• a lack of suitable data impedes the use and transfer of existing
decision support tools
To improve the applicability and usefulness of GIS applications in other fields,
a simplified task-specific system accessible by non-GIS users should be developed
(Liu, Timbal, Mo, & Fairweather, 2011, p. 141). Designing a GIS-based support
system for agriculture should therefore take into account the level of understanding
of its end-users. In view of this, an adaptation strategy, including those for
agriculture, can be broken down into four components or phases: signal detection,
the “triggering” mechanism that will start the process; evaluation, the interpretation of
the signal and its foreseeable consequences or impacts; decision and response, the
behavioural and performance changes in the system; and feedback, the analysis of
the outcome of the response (Risbey, Kandlikar, Dowlatabadi, & Graetz, 1999, p.
139).
The signal detection phase involves perception of relevant patterns, which
can be done via quantifying and visualizing the state of the system, which in itself is
a common reason for turning to SDSS in the first place. The evaluation phases
involves “the interpretation of future projections and assessment of the foreseeable
impacts“, and in terms of climate change adaptation this translates to vulnerability
analysis. And the final two phases (decision and response, and feedback) can be
greatly augmented by SDSS (Lieske, 2015, pp. 98 - 99).
Examples of computer-based applications for farm and land management

Below are some examples of existing GIS-based climate adaptation tools for
agriculture:
• A GIS-based climate change adaptation strategy tool (CCAST) was
developed in Australia that “integrates knowledge relevant to climate impact
management including the global climate response to a range of emission
scenarios and how they translate to local scale climate variables and crop
relevant indices based on appropriate statistical downscaling techniques” (Liu,
Timbal, Mo, & Fairweather, 2011, p. 141). Daily climate data – with key
31
variables being daily minimum and maximum temperatures, and rainfall
amount – are downloaded from the SILO (Scientific Information for Land
Owners) database, and future radiation data is generated as it is needed for
running crop systems models. As CCAST is tailored for the wheat industry, 20
phenology-based climate indices are used. Ultimately, the system produces
visualizations of climate change impacts on a particular index over a user-
selected region, and these geographical analytical results are used for
evaluating adaptation strategies developed for the industry (Liu, Timbal, Mo, &
Fairweather, 2011, pp. 142 - 143).
Fig.3.3. Schematic representation of CCAST (Liu, Timbal, Mo, & Fairweather, 2011, p. 142)
32
Fig.3.4. Schematic representation of the vertical integration of knowledge relevant to climate
change impact and adaptation made possible by CCAST for the wheat production in NSW
and relevant to the applicability of the framework for other locations (Liu, Timbal, Mo, &
Fairweather, 2011, p. 152)
• In Germany, LandCaRe (Land, Climate and Resources) DSS contains
modules and tools that provide information and advice, analyze climate data,
assess climate change impact on plant phenology agriculture at the national,
regional and farm scales, conduct the simulation and integrated assessment
of different agricultural adaptation strategies to climate change at the regional
and farm scales, and analyze, visualize and interpret the simulation results
(Wenkel, et al., 2013, pp. S170 - S172). LandCaRe DSS essentially operates
yield models which, in turn, provide feedback on yield information including
simulated nutrient and irrigation water demands into farm economy models to
compute the economic impacts of climate change and/or the impacts of
management adaptation strategies (Wenkel, et al., 2013, p. S170).
33
Fig.3.5. Basic principles of the operations of LandCaRe-DSS (Wenkel, et al., 2013, p. S173)
• In Australia, the biocultural knowledge of its indigenous population is being
tapped for ideas on conservation management and the sustainable use of the
physical environment – a good example of indigenous knowledge working
together with scientific inquiry to promote adaptation. GIS is being used as a
tool “for community empowerment, capacity building and social change”, and
for facilitating public involvement in policymaking. The Australian Indigenous
Biocultural Knowledge (AIBK) website displays some of the products of this
research as a web-based map (http://aibk.info/map/) (Pert, et al., 2015, pp.
111- 116).
34
Fig.3.6. The Australian Indigenous Biocultural Knowledge (AIBK) web map, with the
Southern Tanami protected area selected (top). Clicking on the URL link included in the
popup opens another website that gives more information regarding the conservation
practices being done in the selected region (bottom).
Other GIS-based applications for farmers include soil moisture monitoring in

rain-fed paddy fields with the aid of remote sensing techniques and SCS Curve
Number-based hydrologic models (Reshmidevi, Jana, & Eldho, 2008, p. 447), and a
geospatial interface for combining a potato crop model with ArcGIS using the Python
programming language (Resop, Fleisher, Wang, Timlin, & Reddy, 2012)(p. 51).
35
D. Vulnerability Assessment Aided By Geospatial Technologies
Parameters in assessing vulnerability of farming sites
Equally important in the development of a GIS-based recommender system
for farmers are the indices that are to be used in assessing a region’s vulnerability.
In the case of Australia’s CCAST, twenty climate indices are used – and most
of these values are tailored to wheat production (Liu, Timbal, Mo, & Fairweather,
2011, p. 144). Since rice, and not wheat, dominates agricultural production in the
Philippines, these indices may not be suitable for the study area. Therefore an
alternative set of indices suitable to both the Philippine climate and geography
should be considered.
Given the growing volume of literature in climate studies, there are many
potentially useful indices that can help assess drought vulnerability.
In Brazil, the Evaporative Stress Index (ESI) is used as “an indicator of
agricultural drought in terms of the timing and magnitude of peak correlations with
spatially distributed yield observations” as it “depicts anomalies in the actual-to-
reference evapotranspiration ratio retrieved via energy balance using remote sensing
inputs of land surface temperature and leaf area index” (Anderson, et al., 2016, p.
83).
In India, a study made use of data from TRMM and MODIS, socioeconomic
datasets such as demand and literacy rate, the Standardized Precipitation Index
(SPI) and NDVI were combined in a methodology to assess drought risk in South
Bihar (Yaduvanshi, Srivastava, & Pandey, 2015, pp. 15 - 18). Another Indian study
used SPI, NOAA-AVHRR-derived Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), crop yield
anomaly index (YAI) and rainfall anomaly index (RAI) to evaluate drought conditions
in Rajasthan (Dutta, et al., 2015, pp. 54 - 56). A third study went as far as developing
a Combined Deficit Index (CDI) by combining most of the abovementioned indices
and making use of both international and home-grown space technologies as data
sources (Vyas, et al., 2015, pp. 30 - 33).
A study in South Korea proposed a Drought Risk Index (DRI) that makes use
of a number of other indices as indicators, most prominently the Effective Drought
Index (EDI) – a method “increasingly used in hydro-meteorological drought research
areas” - which has inherent strengths over earlier indices such as the Palmer
Drought Severity Index (PDSI) and SPI due to ability to provide drought severity on a
daily basis (Kim, Park, Yoo, & Kim, 2015, pp. 28 - 30).
36
And in the United States, a probabilistic framework for assessing agricultural
drought makes use of graphical models – in particular, the hidden Markov models
(HMMs) – to take into account temporal dependence existing between drought
states. In particular, HMM is used in modelling crop stress due to varying soil
moisture and crop information (Ramadas & Govindaraju, 2015, pp. 152, 154 - 155).
The index to be used for this study, the agricultural drought vulnerability index
(ADVI) was developed and tested in the Andhra Pradesh state of India. It is a
measure of vulnerability touted to be “robust, effective and scientific due to (a) the
inclusion of multiple contributing indicators – weather, soil, crop and socio-economic,
(b) sub-district level input data, (c) unbiased method of weights generation and (d)
vulnerability categorization based on a statistical distribution”. It aims “to address the
multi-dimensional nature of agricultural drought hazard and the spatial perspective of
its vulnerability and scale requirements” (Murthy, Laxman, & Sesha Sai, 2015, pp.
164, 170).
ADVI is selected as SICATA’s primary determinant of drought vulnerability
because unlike the other indices, ADVI deliberately includes socioeconomic factors
as part of its assessment for adaptive capacity. Such inclusion of a socioeconomic
component is especially desired when there is a need for prioritization of a project’s
target beneficiaries especially when support resources are scarce (i.e. less privileged
farmers should be given a better support system, as better financed farmers are
more capable of weathering a financial storm due to adverse climatic phenomena).
ADVI’s advantage also comes from its ability to become flexible via allowing the
individual assessment of contributing indicators’ weights, discussed in more detail in
the next section. Also, save the one from Korea, ADVI maps its output in vector form,
giving analysts a direct method of automatically providing and interpreting index
values, as against the need to take additional steps to encapsulate the raster outputs
of other indices in vector features and then providing the interpretations afterwards.
Details on the features, advantages and disadvantages of each of the mentioned
indices are provided in Appendix B.
ADVI in detail
ADVI is comprised of three indices (exposure, sensitivity an adaptive
capacity) that are summed up to form a single valued index, as described in Fig.3.7.:
37
Fig.3.7. Framework of methodology for deriving ADVI (Murthy, Laxman, & Sesha Sai, 2015,
p. 165)
The exposure index (EI) “indicates the nature, extent, duration and frequency
of drought conditions over a geographic area”, and since meteorological drought is
the primary cause of agricultural drought, both time and amount of rainfall are used
to determine the exposure component, making EI a purely hydro-meteorologic
determinant (Murthy, Laxman, & Sesha Sai, 2015, p. 165). In India, drought is
defined as “occurrence of less than 75% of normal rainfall… in the season” (Murthy,
Laxman, & Sesha Sai, 2015, p. 165). In the case of the Philippines, drought is
defined as “three consecutive months of way below normal rainfall condition (>60%
reduction from average rainfall)”, with additional categories of dry spell and dry
condition being somewhat milder in nature (PAGASA, 2015).
The sensitivity index (SI) is the degree to which crops respond to drought
conditions, in this case to cropping pattern and crop condition. Since different crops
behave differently to varying meteorological conditions (sorghum, for example, is
more tolerant of reduced water than peanuts), a farming area’s sensitivity is
38
determined by the type of crop planted during such times (Murthy, Laxman, & Sesha
Sai, 2015, p. 165). To aid in deriving SI values, remote sensing products – especially
those aimed at obtaining normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) values – are
used. For the Andhra Pradesh study, 500-m Terra MODIS monthly composites were
used (Murthy, Laxman, & Sesha Sai, 2015, pp. 165 - 166). For the case of Pitpitan,
since rice is the predominant crop planted in farms, the indicator on crop type and
area planted is reduced into a unit value.
The adaptive capacity index (AI) deals with an agricultural area’s ability to
cope up with adverse climate situations. Three parameters were proposed to assess
this index: soil condition, irrigation support and land holdings. For the first parameter,
higher water holding capacity (the term used in the Andhra Pradesh study is
available water content) values indicate higher adaptive capacity. For the second
parameter, a higher percentage of irrigated areas per farm parcel is considered
having a higher adaptive capacity. And for the last parameter, larger farm parcels
indicate higher adaptive capacity for the owning farmer (Murthy, Laxman, & Sesha
Sai, 2015, pp. 166 - 167).
The ADVI study also noted that the analysis of the NDVI of the first month of a
year’s monsoon season of the year, of which in Andhra Pradesh is the month of
August, can give a predictive insight on how the rest of the year will be faring for the
farming community (Murthy, Laxman, & Sesha Sai, 2015, p. 166):
Delay in the onset of monsoon rains, inadequate amount of rainfall and
improper distribution of rainfall quite often lead to disturbances in the time of
sowing and extent of crop sown area – the manifestation of early season
agricultural drought situations. Considering the spectral manifestation of
agricultural areas and staggering of crop sowing time, the NDVI in the month
of August aptly captures the early season agricultural drought conditions.
A notable feature of ADVI is its inclusion of a deliberate means of assigning
weights depending on the number of indicators used, with twelve for EI, seven for SI
and three for AI, using value normalization and the Min-Max approach (Murthy,
Laxman, & Sesha Sai, 2015, p. 167). Such a feature provides an implicit means of
the inclusion of useful indicators and the setting aside, or reduction, of incomplete or
irrelevant ones. An example of such a situation was provided by the ADVI study
itself, when its authors mentioned the desire to include the effects of groundwater
39
irrigation sources to adaptive capacity but that it had to be set aside due to non-
availability of the data (Murthy, Laxman, & Sesha Sai, 2015, p. 167).
Table 3.2. Contributing indicators of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity composite
indices in the Andhra Pradesh study and their corresponding weights (Murthy, Laxman, &
Sesha Sai, 2015, p. 166)
40
E. Summary Of Insights
The following are the summary of insights gained from the related literature:
❖ Climate change is brought about by global warming, which is in turn
brought about by heavy greenhouse gas emissions that is far greater than
what nature can process back into useful things. Climate change affects
every aspect of agriculture, from food production to food quality, and
agricultural activities themselves – such as the use of flooded rice paddy
fields – may be contributory to GHG emissions. Addressing the issue,
however, has become complex due to proposed and implemented
solutions being mismatched to the problem – in particular, most solutions
do not address the issue of GHG accumulation in the atmosphere, but
instead focuses on other things such as productivity maintenance, cost
reduction, or even symptom masking.
❖ Awareness to the effects of climate change on a national scale begins with
policy mainstreaming, and the Philippines itself has its own climate
strategy guidelines that are expected to be achieved by 2022. But these
policies are in danger of being ineffective in the long run due to
narrowness of the scope addressed and the absence of vulnerability
assessment of the beneficiaries. In addition, different sectors have
different coping ranges and adaptive capacities to climate change – as a
general rule, the more resources a person has, the greater his or her
coping range and adaptive capacity. As a result, adaptation planning
should give priority to the less fortunate ones.
❖ Not all issues can be solved by science, especially those that are within
the realm of the social. To address local problems that science cannot
answer, the community’s indigenous knowledge (IK) can be tapped.
Farmers’ folk wisdom and cultural assets can and will be proven to be very
appropriate in addressing climate change effects in the local setting, and
combining it with the rigor of scientific knowledge will result to a sound and
acceptable adaptation program.
❖ Different crops respond differently to climate variations, some benefiting
and some suffering, but in general water is the most limiting factor in
agricultural activities. Crop diversification is a tool for farmers to maintain
productivity as they can take advantage of a certain crop’s resilience to
41
climate variations or another crop’s low water requirements. Landrace
varieties and crops grown from locally sourced seeds have better chances
in surviving adverse climate conditions in their growing regions than crops
from standard issue seeds – the former can therefore be tapped for crop
hybridization projects. And, in a paradoxical relationship of national wealth
and genetic diversity, farmers in developing countries push crop genetic
diversity faster than in developed countries due to the former resorting to
using whatever is available in their growing area to produce crops.
❖ Other countries have their own well-planned climate adaptation strategies
for their agriculture sector, including modification of farming techniques
and research on minimizing GHG emissions in the food production sector,
such as discouraging the use of incineration for agricultural waste disposal
and recycling them into functional items such as bricks and cattle feed.
Engineers can also involve themselves in designing effective and culturally
respectful rainwater harvesting systems for quick adoption by beneficiary
communities, such as the case of Rajasthan’s Aakash Ganga – “River
from the Sky”.
❖ There are climate adaptation techniques being used in the Philippines,
repurposed from local programs into larger scale projects as an answer to
the looming adverse effects of climate change. Small water impounding
projects (SWIPs), cloud seeding and rice hybridization are such
techniques, but are generally too expensive for local farmers to fund
themselves. A more recent irrigation technique, the alternate wetting and
drying (AWD) technique, is being promoted by IRRI both to conserve
water and reduce GHG production due to the constant flooding of rice
fields. On the community level, farmers generally rely on a “hope for the
best” attitude as a means to shrug their worries off – but if bad becomes
worse, they resort to cutting their own consumption costs to adapt to the
situation. There are also differences in the receptiveness of farming
communities to climate adaptation strategies, at times depending on said
communities’ accessibility to irrigation supply.
❖ Geospatial technologies are highly applicable in studying and planning for
sustainable agriculture, as well as monitoring existing croplands for
preventing problems going haywire, but these tools are underutilized due
42
to the lack of training and understanding of the end-users, and the lack of
interactivity in the tools themselves. The success of such tools require that
these knowledge barrier issues are addressed and overcome.
❖ There are a number of existing GIS-based support systems for agricultural
adaptability to an erratic climate such as Australia’s CCAST and AIBK and
Germany’s LandCaRe-DSS, but since these are catered to the climate
situation of their respective homelands the indicators used in the said
applications may not be suitable in the Philippine setting.
❖ There are a number of geospatial indices that can assess agricultural
climatic vulnerability, but the Indian-developed agricultural drought
vulnerability index (ADVI) is selected for this study because of its vector-
based output and its inclusion of a deliberate methodology for calculating
contributing weights, which in turn implies its potential flexibility in
accommodating new indicators and in reducing the number of indicators in
non-ideal cases.
43
F. Summary Of Good Farming Adaptation Practices From The Literature
The following set of practices from researched literature are, in a sense,
potentially mandatory – that is, regardless of the process or climatic conditions, they
should be considered by the farming communities:
❖ Industries should follow a cyclic pattern of “production, consumption and
reuse” and minimize GHG emissions from burning or waste decay. In the
case of agricultural activities, wastes from crop cultivation (i.e. rice stalks
and husks) should be transformed into useful by-products such as organic
fertilizers, biofuel, building materials (i.e. rice stalks for brick production),
etc.
❖ Rainwater harvesting activities should be done during the wet season.
Farmers should be advised to dig and/or construct retention ponds or
provide themselves with collection implements, from something as simple
as installation of water drums to gather rainwater runoff from roof gutters
to more sophisticated engineering for communal water such as Aakash
Ganga.
❖ Rice harvest by-products should be recycled into useful products such as
treated rice stalks for livestock feed supplementation.
❖ Erosion control techniques such as the planting of tree windbreaks against
strong typhoon winds should be considered to keep the soil fertile,
because even hardy plants adaptable to adverse climatic situations need
nutrients.
From researched literature, Pitpitan’s farmers can adopt the following
practices before and during adverse climatic effects:
❖ During the dry season, use a variety of crops that require less water
compared to rice such as alfalfa, asparagus, cabbages, carrots, corn,
cucumbers, eggplants, onions, parsley, potatoes, radishes, shallots,
silverbeets, snow peas, sorghum, sweet corn, sweet potatoes, tomatoes,
watermelons and zucchinis.
❖ During the wet season, use a variety of crops that can adapt to
waterlogging and submergence such as guavas, bamboo and lotuses.
❖ Promote the growth of native forage or drought-resistant feeds (such as
alfalfa) for livestock such as cattle.
44
❖ Practice AWD during the irrigation season to help conserve valuable water
supplied by the Angat dam.
❖ Promote the use of rice varieties that are tolerant of drought during dry
conditions and of extreme flooding during wet conditions, the latter citing
varieties incorporating submergence resistance such as IR64-Sub1.
These adaptation practices are reflected in the Table of Recommendations
that is to be used together with the reduced ADVI map outputs. Details on this table
are provided in the Methodology and Appendices sections.
45
PART IV: METHODOLOGY
46
METHODOLOGY
Workflow Design for SICATA

The following information on SICATA’s schematic was derived on ideas
presented in the review of related literature to give readers an idea of how a
recommender system suitable for local farmers can be implemented.
• SICATA design schematic
SICATA’s original architecture was largely patterned with Australia’s
CCAST schematic, although modified to reflect the study’s focus on farming
activities related to rice production. In the case of industry-specific indices to be
used, CCAST’s index system for wheat was to be replaced by the ADVI system
used in the Andhra Pradesh study.
To minimize, if not eliminate, software acquisition and system
development costs, free and open source software (FOSS) is to be utilized for
SICATA. Crucial to this system is the use of PostGIS – a geospatially-enabled
extension of PostgreSQL – as the database back-end. For the user interface,
QGIS shall serve as the desktop-based visualization component. And if the
situation allows, a farmer-friendly web- or mobile-based user interface in
OpenLayers can be developed for easier access for the end-users.
Fig.4.1. A SICATA flow diagram developed in the earlier phases of the study
47
Adopting the idea of four-stage DSS development (Risbey, Kandlikar,
Dowlatabadi, & Graetz, 1999) – with the third item modified to reflect SICATA’s
design as a recommender system – the following actions are to be done for each
stage:
➢ Signal Detection: As an adaptation tool that must respond to the hydro-
meteorologic situation, the primary “triggering” mechanism for SICATA is
going to be related to the presence or absence of rainfall events. In
prolonged times of zero rainfall values from the rain gauges relevant to the
Pitpitan area, the system shall consider this situation as a drought event
and thus recommend drought-related adaptation strategies to farmers. In
times the rain gauge does send nonzero rainfall values after a long trend
of zero values, SICATA shall determine if the amount of rainfall is sufficient
to end the drought event and in turn consider changing its
recommendations to farmers.
➢ Evaluation: Upon receiving significant nonzero values from the concerned
rain gauges, SICATA shall perform ADVI-based computations for each
farm parcel, drawing EI, SI and AI parameters via SQL queries from the
PostGIS database. The resulting ADVI values are then to be compared
with a “baseline” ADVI dataset (derived from at least a decade’s worth of
data) for deviations.
➢ Recommendation Issuance: After obtaining ADVI deviation values for each
farm parcel, SQL queries shall be performed to search for the most
appropriate recommendations. The nature of these recommendations shall
be in the form of interactive choropleth maps that allow end-users to
display the situation of the pixel or farm parcel, and the possible
recommendations to be done to ensure continued productivity.
➢ Feedback: Once SICATA maps out recommendations in choropleth map
form, validation is needed to be done to ensure the applicability of
recommendations. In cases of output inconsistency, the recommender
system is to be adjusted to correct the issues.
There exists a question, however, on SICATA’s implementation as a system.
It is on whether it is better to have the system run in an almost fully automated
fashion or to have it require some inputs from farmers themselves. While an
automated system will make it more convenient for farmers to use since they only
48
need to get recommendation messages from SICATA via their mobile phones or
personal computers, whichever is accessible, it will entail sacrificing on-the-spot
information that can possibly refine the analysis and recommendation process (i.e.
actual water levels in their farm fields instead of a generalized irrigation support
map).
A system requiring inputs from end-users, on the other hand, would not only
solve the data reference problem, but it will also make for a form of interaction
between the developers and the end-users. But such an input-based tool might
become inconvenient for farmers to use given their busy work schedule and the
training required for them to understand the technology.
This question has been deemed a limitation of this study, but further
researches on software development and farmer adaptation eagerness will solve the
matter.
49
Fig.4.2. The flow diagram for SICATA’s recommendation scheme, including needed
derivable parameters from each primary data source or layer (shown in green) for obtaining
seasonal ADVI and its composite indices (shown in red)
50
• The Table of Recommendations
A table of recommendations based on ADVI categorizations was
developed in a spreadsheet file, categorized into seven major categories: ADVI
rating, rainfall presence, rice planting season, descriptive situation,
recommended action, recommended actions for rice and recommended non-rice
crops.
The ADVI rating classifies a farm parcel into five categories, listed in
decreasing intensity: very highly vulnerable, highly vulnerable, vulnerable,
moderately vulnerable and less vulnerable.
Rainfall presence denotes the expected occurrence of rainfall for the
particular cropping season. If expected rainfall is higher than standard (i.e. a
typhoon occurring during the otherwise rainless irrigated season, or a La Niña
phenomenon affecting the rainfed season) then it will be classified as “high”,
otherwise it will be categorized as “low”.
Rice planting season is categorized into the two as described by Pitpitan’s
farmers: transplanting during the rainfed season from August to January, and
direct seeding during the irrigation season from February to May.
The descriptive situation category provides a nominal description of events
that farmers should expect after the assessment of values recorded in the first
three categories of the recommendations table. The descriptions should also
explain in non-technical terms the reason that the recommendations to be issued
is such.
And the last three categories on recommended practices, recommended
actions for rice and recommended non-rice crops provide farmers with ideas on
potential adaptive practices, rice varieties and suitable crops that will help them
cope with the events denoted by the descriptive situation. These
recommendations are based on the review of related literature and Pitpitan
farmers’ adaptive knowledge.
More information on the starting contents of the table of recommendations
are available at the Appendices section of this study.
Knowledge gained from farmers

Based on the readings of related literature, it is important to get farmers
involved in the planning process for developing a recommender system for climate
51
adaptation, being end-users and ultimately the authorities to its success. But first, an
appropriate means of establishing communication is needed so that they will be
open to sharing their insights to otherwise unfamiliar faces.
There are many approaches to open a communication process with potential
clients, with some going as far as instituting formulaic procedures that are
characteristic of market researchers’ models (Hopkins, 2007, p. 529) such as printed
questionnaires and written surveys. This study’s author opted to make use two
approaches. The first was a focus group discussion (FGD) – a combination of a
focused interview and a group discussion, where the gathering of relatively
heterogeneous individuals attempt to concentrate on a single topic without the use of
a structured questionnaire (Goss, 1996, p. 113) – with the study’s author acting as
the moderator to keep the focus on the topic. This was employed as a means of
orientation for the author in a largely unfamiliar field (Hopkins, 2007, pp. 528 - 530)
and to be able to gather as much information from a pool of experienced individuals
as possible.
The other procedure involved personal interviews with a representative of the
farming community as a means to spare busy farmers from being disturbed with their
livelihood activities especially during sowing and harvest periods.
➢ Focus group discussion with rice farmers, 28 June 2015

While FGDs are useful research tools, it is so flexible that there are
various perspectives in conducting a successful session (Goss, 1996). To
help with formulating FGD activities, four things can be considered: the
composition of the group, location of the discussion, sensitivity of the topic,
and positionalities of the researcher and the researched (Hopkins, 2007, pp.
530 - 533).
The study’s author opted to conduct the FGD with farmers who rely
primarily on planting activities as livelihood because of the very nature of this
study. The author also opted to conduct the FGD in a place familiar to them: a
farmland setting, with its homey and laid-back atmosphere providing the
interviewees a sense of comfort and ease. This home-like approach aims to
allow farmers to comfortably voice their individual thoughts and possible
dissenting opinions, as aggregation of individual decisions, rather than
52
deliberation to reach a consensus (to the point of achieving groupthink), can
produce better decisions (Tollefsen, 2006, pp. 37 - 38).
In terms of topic sensitivity, climate change is to be considered a
sensitive but non-personal issue – that is, it is a global concern which does
not tap on individual situations that would otherwise require a tactful approach
(race, religion, gender and political affiliation, to name a few). This allowed the
author to adopt a candid and loosely structured approach in moderating the
FGD, as against formulaic and rigid systems that would otherwise fail to
develop the full potential of FGDs as research tools by hindering critical
thinking and creative approaches (Hopkins, 2007, pp. 528 - 530).
And in terms of positionalities, the study’s author maintained the role of
being a researcher who is there for scientific inquiry, while also pointing out
that the farmers are being interviewed because they are the experts in the
field of agriculture.
These design considerations were implemented in the FGD with
Pitpitan’s farmers conducted in the afternoon of 28 June 2015. With the help
of Office of the Barangay Captain, ten local farmers (seven of the farmers
arrived early, the other three joined later) out of the estimated 25 (C. Catindig,
personal communication, June 11, 2016) were assembled in a patch of
farmland surrounded by shade-bearing trees. As noted earlier, the study’s
author, acting as moderator, conducted candid discussions with the gathered
group to assess their current conditions, request for farming indigenous
knowledge and gather their rice farming techniques. The talks were recorded
for documentation purposes using a cellular phone application for voice
recording.
The author used the itemized list of desired information shown below
as a reference guide during the talks:
❖ Seed sources, whether they grow their own seeds or obtain seeds from
suppliers
❖ Crop varieties, if they are landrace or sourced from other locations, and
if they came from government-issue hybrid seeds, particularly if they
are developed for better gross yield, hardiness, smaller fertilizer
requirements, etc.
53
❖ Farmer perception of the benefits and/or drawbacks of having drought
or heavy rainfall events
❖ Local adaptation practices in times of dry spells and heavy rainfall, and
crops involved during these phases
❖ Government involvement, if their community is frequented by
government researchers on such issues as planned projects, crop
wellbeing and recommendations
❖ Access to ICT, especially in technologies that enable GIS-based
systems
Fig.4.3. The study author, seven of the ten interviewed farmers of Pitpitan, and two
grandchildren of one of the farmers (taken 28 June 2015)
The following information were shared from the discussions with
farmers (Catindig, 2015):
o In terms of government support, the farmers expressed their discontent
with the apparent lack of it. Services that were meant to be free – such
as the provision of rice seeds, fertilizers and irrigation – were either
delayed or compromised due to issues of local corruption. Farmers
state that the best way for the government to show its support is to
provide a new and stable source of irrigation water, since the Angat
Dam caters largely to the residents of Metropolitan Manila. Using
drought-resistant rice hybrids and solving local corruption are
considered secondary aims in alleviating their situation.
54
o When it comes to their sources of seeds, farmers opt to reserve some
of their own produce to compensate for the absence of government-
issued seeds. They do ensure that when using locally produced seeds
they first combine seeds from different planting sites before sowing
them. This practice was put into action after a seminar the farmers
received from personnel from the Department of Agriculture (DA).
o As for the case of generating produce besides rice, farmers plant mung
seeds (munggo) and string beans (sitaw) around rice fields to
supplement their crops. Some practice planting fruit-bearing trees such
as mangoes, but experience pointed out that the shade generated by
these trees provides problems in rice production – and in case a farmer
does opt to plant more of these trees, his or her rice field is ultimately
converted into a fruit orchard or plantation. There are also farmers who
keep fish pens for aquaculture.
o Farmers initially practiced recycling of postharvest waste via
composting of rice stalks as instructed by trainers from DA, but
eventually they stopped due to lack of government support (according
to the farmers composting requires water and fertilizers to be
accomplished, and their supply of irrigation water is too precious to be
used in things other than for growing rice).
o Farmers expressed concern over the potential adverse effects of
saltwater intrusion from Manila Bay especially in the rainy season
during high tides. They noted that rice are intolerant to the presence of
sea salt and will thus render their fields unsuitable for rice production,
and that unless saltwater-tolerant rice hybrids can be issued they might
resort to utilizing crops such as nipa palms to compensate.
o Mobile devices are much more readily accessible to Pitpitan’s farmers
than personal computers, prompting the consideration of a mobile
phone platform for delivering adaptation recommendations from
SICATA.
Contrary to what was initially expected, Pitpitan farmers at this point did
not share specific climate adaptation practices in times of drought and
flooding, relying simply on a “hoping for the best” situation. They did note that
55
in times of flooding, as long as water does not submerge the entire rice plant,
the crop will survive until harvesting.
➢ Personal communication with a Pitpitan rice farmer, 04 September 2015

An interview was conducted with a Pitpitan farmer in early September
of 2015 to request for information regarding the normal cropping cycle for rice
in the barangay’s fields. Unlike the FGD in later June, only one farmer was
available for information gathering at that time because most of the local
peasantry were engaged in farm duties – indeed, the interviewee himself
skipped his farm routine to accommodate the interview session (this instance
is actually reflected in the farmer activity diagram depicted in Fig.4.4, with
early September being the “fertilizer coating” period of the barangay’s rainfed
season).
The interviewed farmer shared the following information regarding
Pitpitan’s two rice planting seasons (C. Catindig, personal communication,
September 3, 2015) (CGIAR GRiSP (Global Rice Science Partnership), 2013,
pp. 4 - 7):
o Direct seeding season (February to May) – direct seeding is the
preferred method for farmers due to a much higher harvest yield and
the economy of not purchasing or borrowing seedlings, but doing so
requires dry soil (rice seeds rot when soaked too early in abundant
water) and a large supply of water coming from irrigation
▪ 1st week of February – direct seeding activity on rice fields
▪ 20 days from direct seeding (around late February) – first fertilizer
broadcast, depending on water supply
▪ 40 days from first fertilizer broadcast (around late March or early
April) – tillering (reproductive) stage and second fertilizer broadcast,
depending on water supply
▪ 20 to 40 days from tillering stage (April to May) – ripening and
harvest
o Transplanting season (Late August to Early January) – done during the
rainy season so that seedlings will be hardy enough to withstand
consistently wet soil
▪ August 25 – planting and sprouting of seeds in a nursery
56
▪ Between August 25 and September 25 – fertilizer coating of
sprouting beds with guano (if funds are available)
▪ September 25 – transplanting of seedlings on rice fields
▪ 25 days from transplanting (around mid to late October) – first
fertilizer broadcast with 45-0-0 guano
▪ 45 to 60 days from first fertilizer broadcast (around later October to
late December) – tillering (reproductive) stage and second fertilizer
broadcast with 16-20 formula fertilizer
▪ 20 to 40 days from tillering stage (January) – ripening and harvest
o Mid-season (June and July) – farmers do not perform any farming
activity during these months, using the time for family chores or other
jobs such as in construction work
After gathering information on the cropping calendar, an unexpected
information was shared by the interviewee. He noted that the farming
community was preparing for an upcoming dry spell due to the El Niño
Phenomenon, especially when meteorologists ascertained that the chances of
drought occurring is high. After holding a meeting to talk about mitigation
measures, Pitpitan’s farmers agreed upon the rental of a tractor to plough
their fields and then plant a variety of crops such as mung beans, sponge
gourds (patola), watermelons (pakwan), pumpkins (kalabasa), string beans
and eggplants (talong). The interviewee explained that with their fields
ploughed, they can grow virtually any plant (C. Catindig, personal
communication, September 3, 2015).
This sudden change of situation (from perceived lack of adaptation
knowledge to an actual possession of such) can be attributed to the necessity
for action after gaining substantial information of an upcoming adverse effect.
As the forecasts of drought occurring has been deemed certain by
meteorologists, farmers who were initially complacent of the situation were
ultimately alarmed by the news. And since Pitpitan is among the areas
farthest from irrigation provided by the Angat Dam (M.G. Carillo, personal
communication, August 19, 2015), water supply during the El Niño is
expected to be less than customary, springing them to think of tried-and-
tested activities that will ultimately help them weather off the dry spell.
57
As a consequence of learning that the farming community is more
concerned with being able to adapt during prolonged absence of water as
against having excesses of it, this study’s author opted to prioritize research
on adaptation practices during dry spells over those during flood events.
58
Fig.4.4. Linear graph interpretation of Pitpitan farmers’ activities for both the irrigated and the
rainfed season
59
➢ Personal communication with a Pitpitan rice farmer, 11 June 2016
An interview was conducted with a farmer in early June of 2016 for
additional insights, especially on indicating areas of special interest around
Pitpitan. As with the previously conducted interview in September of 2015, an
FGD is again not possible due to the other farmers being busy with post-
harvest “odd jobs” such as construction work until mid-August (C. Catindig,
personal communication, June 11, 2016).
The study’s author noted two sacks of chaffed rice at the farmer-
interviewee’s doorsteps. The farmer explained that the contents are to be
used for sprouting rice for transplanting in the rainfed season, and that the
chaff is needed to protect it from weather elements. He pointed out that when
the seeds are to be used, the chaff is to be removed so as to avoid the
seedlings from “souring” and being spoiled during the sprouting process in
August (C. Catindig, personal communication, June 11, 2016). The above
statements verified the accuracy of Pitpitan’s farmer activity diagram for the
rainfed season, shown in Fig.4.4.
Fig.4.5. A scene at the farmer-interviewee’s house, with two sacks of chaffed rice seeds
from the previous harvest to be used for the upcoming rainfed season (taken 11 June 2016).
The study’s author asked the farmer-interviewee to mark areas-of-
interest on a printout of Pitpitan’s farm parcel map (details on the said map’s
data source to be discussed in the next section). Using crayons and with the
assistance of the interviewer, the farmer estimated the breadth of these
60
areas-of-interest with the following color schemes (C. Catindig, personal
communication, June 11, 2016):
o Blue – areas with irrigation support during the irrigated season (from
February to May)
o Red – problematic areas largely caused by the geographic difficulty of
supplying irrigation
o Pink – problematic areas largely caused by soil salinity
o Yellow – problematic areas during times of low irrigation
Fig.4.6. The farmer-interviewee using crayons to mark areas of interest on a printout of

Pitpitan’s farm parcels (taken 11 June 2016).
The farmer-interviewee pointed out that even with irrigation supply from
the Angat Dam, the southerly farms – being the last areas to receive water –
would experience shortages and that the peasantry located there would have
to resort to water pumps to reinforce their irrigation supply, translating to
additional costs on production (C. Catindig, personal communication, June 11,
2016).
61
Fig.4.7. Scanned copy of the farm parcel map worked on by the farmer-interviewee.
The interviewee also related a story about a problem he once had with
his agricultural plot, where half of his plot was productive while the other half
was not. He consulted a soil specialist to check out the plot, and found out
that his land is actually comprised of two different soils. After learning the
necessary information on the proper fertilizers to use (soil type 1 being
suitable to urea as traditionally being done, soil type 2 requiring potassium
supplementation), the entire plot has become very productive. In the end, the
farmer-interviewee stressed the importance of soil profiling and analysis in
assuring agricultural productivity (C. Catindig, personal communication, June
11, 2016).
Gathering and Processing of Secondary Data Sources

• Data from the Municipality of Bulakan, Bulacan
The Municipal Planning and Development Office (MPDO) of Bulakan, Bulacan
provided data on proposed and existing land use maps of its barangays. In the case
of Pitpitan, its proposed land use is roughly the same as its existing conditions, with
agriculture and fisheries being the primary land uses.
62
Fig.4.8. Existing (left) and proposed (right) land use maps of the municipality of Bulakan,
Bulacan as provided by the Municipal Planning and Development Office. Barangay Pitpitan
is located approximately at the area boxed in red on each map.
• Data and Insights from the Bulacan Provincial Capitol

➢ Bulacan Provincial Agriculture Office (PAO)
The Bulacan Provincial Agriculture Office provided data on yields of various
crops per municipality from 2010 to early 2015 in spreadsheet format. Notable in the
information obtained from the rice dataset is that the agricultural calendar starts in
the month of September and that there are two pronounced cropping seasons: a dry
season from September to March, and a wet season from March to September. For
the entire dry season, a single rice cropping cycle is done and the fields are irrigated.
For the wet season, on the other hand, there are two rice cropping cycles – an
irrigated cropping cycle in the first half and a rain-fed cropping cycle in the latter half.
Taking into account the two-cycle pattern provided by Pitpitan’s farmers, it can
be observed that there already are differences in the definition of planting seasons
(the month of September is considered “wet” by Pitpitan farmers, which is in contrast
to its being considered “dry” by PAO). It can be therefore inferred that indeed there
are significant differences in farming patterns at the barangay level within the
province alone.
PAO also noted that in terms of receptiveness to trials on suggested crop
alternatives and climate adaptation practices, farming communities located near the
63
Angat Dam are more open to take risks than those located further away. Security of
irrigation supply allows for three cropping seasons, boosting the confidence of
nearby farming communities that in the eventuality of trial failure they are still able to
produce something from their farmlands to survive the year. On the other hand those
located further away could not afford to endure losses from trial failures as their
survival depends largely on the surety of farm produce in just two cropping cycles,
making farmers in these areas stick to tried and tested methods (M.G. Carillo,
personal communication, August 19, 2015).
But PAO noted that this does not mean people located far away from the
Angat Dam is unreceptive to new ideas, only, there is a need for a trained person or
a technology advocate to provide the motivation. They cited Barangay Matungao in
Bulakan, Bulacan as an example, where an advocate of alternate wetting and drying
(AWD) irrigation technique for saving water had made progress in convincing
farmers to adopt the practice (M.G. Carillo, personal communication, August 19,
2015).
➢ Bulacan Provincial Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Office (PDRRMO)

The Bulacan Provincial Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Office
provided a digital spreadsheet file of thirty-minute time series data on various
meteorological indicators such as temperature, pressure, wind direction and rainfall –
the last of the listed items being the one of primary interest for this study. The data
contained in this file came from an automated weather station (AWS) installed in the
City of Malolos.
➢ Bulacan Provincial Planning and Development Office (PPDO)

The Bulacan Provincial Planning and Development Office provided data on
the official political boundary of Pitpitan, Bulakan, Bulacan as a map in JPEG format.
The said map is plotted in WGS84, and then converted into TIFF format in QGIS
2.10 for boundary digitization.
64
Fig.4.9. Georeferenced barangay political boundary map provided by the Bulacan PPDO,
transparency reduced and overlaid on a Google Hybrid layer in QGIS 2.10. Note the green
boundary depicting Pitpitan after digitization.
➢ Bulacan Provincial Assessor’s Office

The Bulacan Provincial Assessor’s Office provided information on the size
and location of individual farm parcels through a vector map overlaid on a raster
image and saved in JPEG format.
65
Fig.4.10. Farm parcel data from the Bulacan Provincial Assessor’s Office. Another image
with map coordinates was provided to the author.
The farm parcel map was georeferenced via image-to-image registration in
QGIS 2.10 using Google Earth as coordinate reference information. The parcel
information was then manually digitized into a vector format (a shapefile in this
case), and since this study aims to assist farmers at the individual level, it will be
assumed that a single parcel is owned by a single farmer.
66
Thus, it is vital to note that the farm parcel shapefile is going to be the
principal information carrier of which the ADVI methodology shall be used on.
➢ Notes on accuracy of produced vector information
The concerned agencies of the Bulacan Provincial Capitol provided raster
images in lossy JPEG format – vector information was also rasterized as a result –
and required georeferencing to generate coordinate information. The resulting
georeferenced maps for both the barangay’s boundary and its farm parcels are
therefore subject to distortion errors (with RMS error less than one). Overlaying the
barangay boundary map with the farm parcel boundaries map, while showing a good
level of coherence with each other, will have overlaps.
Since this study is concerned only with developing a methodology for
providing adaptation recommendations to farmers, the accuracy of the generated
vector information can be set aside in favour of assessing the correctness of
recommendations provided by SICATA. The study’s author, however, wished to
express the need to address government policies on information sharing for
academic purposes, as nothing beats first hand vector information on any form of
geospatial analysis.
Fig.4.11. Generated vector data of Pitpitan’s political boundary map and farm parcel
boundaries map overlaid on a pre-processed, Landsat 8-derived NDVI map dated 06
September 2015 (see section on Landsat 8 NDVI for details).
67
Data Pre-processing for Deriving ADVI Composite Indices
It is crucial to note that because most of ADVI’s indicators require the
calculation of coefficients of variation, time-series datasets are required to use this
methodology. For the purposes of this study, the time series analyses are divided
into two casesμ a “between-year” analysis of irrigated cropping seasons for 2014 and
2015 (Case 1), and a “within-year” analysis of an irrigated season and a rainfed
season for the year 2015 (Case 2).
- Case 1 is a “between-year” integration of Pitpitan’s irrigated cropping

season for 2014 and 2015, and is principally the same setup as that of the
Andhra Pradesh study since it is an integration of data between two years
- Case 2 is a “within-year” integration of the irrigated and rainfed seasons
for 2015 as an attempt to check if the study area’s vulnerability changes
depending on the cropping season and if it can be done using a single
year’s worth of data
68
Fig.4.12. The general methodology for vulnerability assessment using ADVI.
69
A. Exposure Index
ADVI’s hydro-meteorology-based exposure index (EI) aims to assess a
study area’s vulnerability (or lack thereof) to drought events. As the absence of
rainfall is the primary cause of drought (there are other factors such as the
presence of irrigation or groundwater sources of water but these require
engineering interventions and are thus better placed under items of adaptive
capacity, which will be discussed later), EI aims to assess if sufficient rainfall is
present in the study area during a cropping season.
Rainfall volume alone, however, is not sufficient to determine drought
occurrence. The frequency of rainfall occurrences is equally important as it
determines the sustainability of water availability for a crop in the entirety of the
planting season. For example, soil cannot completely absorb a month’s worth of
rain occurring on a single day once it becomes saturated – the rest of the water
will become runoff – and if rains do not occur for the rest of the cropping season
the soil will ultimately dry out, to the detriment of crops. On the other hand, the
said runoff from the single-day heavy rain may be intentionally routed to
impounding facilities for other uses, but again this capability requires engineering
interventions and are thus to be placed as items of adaptive capacity.
Ideally, creating a gradient map using data from different rain gauges is
the best way to assess EI. This gradient map will have to be subjected to two
considerations: the availability of rain gauge data and the distance of each rain
gauge from each other. Both items were not satisfied in this study’s case, as will
be explained in the next subsection.
• Calculations based on time-series rainfall data

EI requires temporal information on rainfall volume and the number of
days that rain occurred for the meteorological season and its corresponding
sowing period, with the former needed to “represent the drought conditions in the
aggregated perspective” (Murthy, Laxman, & Sesha Sai, 2015, p. 165). PAGASA
defines four meteorological seasons as DJF, MAM, JJA and SON * (PAGASA,
2011, pp. 2 - 3).
*
The letter codes correspond to the initial letters of three subsequent months, for example DJF = December,
January and February and SON = September, October and November.
70
But Pitpitan’s farming community observes its own set of agricultural
months from August to January (ASONDJ) with sowing periods from August to
September, and from February to May (FMAM) with sowing periods from
February to March (C. Catindig, personal communication, September 3, 2015).
Because Pitpitan follows a different agricultural season, this study made use of
the said agricultural months as the equivalent meteorological months that should
be observed.
Within the main EI indicators of total season rainfall (TSR), total season
rainy days (TSRD), sowing period rainfall (SPR) and sowing period rainy days
(SPRD) are three sub-parameters for each item: the mean ( ), the coefficient of
variation (CV) and the drought frequency (DF). Derivations of these items – and
the setting aside of DF indicators – are to be discussed later in this section.
The ideal datasets for EI map generation, given the farm parcel level scale
of the study area, will come from local rainfall data from rain gauge stations
scattered around Bulacan spanning at least a decade. The use of short-distance
rain gauges will allow for the generation of a good rainfall gradient map via
interpolation with narrow gradations, resulting in decent representations of rainfall
distribution across barangay-level territories.
Unfortunately for this study’s author, the data situation was far from ideal:
the Bulacan Provincial Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Office
(PDRRMO) could only provide daily rainfall data from the years 2011 to 2014
from a single automated weather station (AWS) installed in Malolos. Additional
data from rain gauges listed in the Philippine Food Security Information System
(PhilFSIS) website (Philippine Statistics Authority, 2014), are limited to monthly
levels. Also, these gauges are too distant from each other, and any generated
gradient map from these gauges would result in negligible (near-constant)
gradations at the barangay level.
As compensation, the time-series Malolos rainfall data provided by the
Bulacan PDRRMO was used in place of the ideal situation as representative of
Pitpitan’s hydro-meteorologic situation, given the municipality’s close proximity to
the study area.
71
Rainfall volume
To get the mean for the available four-year period for Case 1, rainfall
volumes for FMAM (and its FM sowing period) are averaged, while for CV, the
formula = �⁄ was used, where σ is the standard deviation and is the mean.
�
In Case 2’s situation, the mean and CV of rainfall volumes for both FMAM (and
its FM sowing period) and ASONDJ (and its AS sowing period) are obtained.
To derive DF per season, information on baseline total rainfall (in mm) in
Bulacan province is needed. PAGASA defined drought as above 60% reduction
in normal rainfall for three months (PAGASA, 2015) – or up to just 40% of
expected rainfall being recorded – and any three-month period with recorded
rainfall having less than 40% of the baseline value shall be considered a drought
period.
Information on baseline total rainfall was derived from PAGASA’s climate
change scenario report: from 1970 to 2000, the calculated expected total rainfall
for Bulacan is 212.4 mm in DJF, 288,9 mm in MAM, 1041.4 mm in JJA and 842.1
mm in SON (PAGASA, 2011, p. 61). These three-month periods, however, was
deemed inappropriate in the case of Pitpitan: considering the rainfed season
alone, the calculated rainfall volumes for the month of August from the Malolos
data were significant (up to 800 mm of rainfall for the years 2012 and 2013), and
removing August rainfall contributions to force compliance with PAGASA’s SON
average would remove such significant values, ultimately resulting in an
erroneous assessment. This study’s author therefore opted to set aside the DF
indicator for rainfall volume.
Rainfall occurrence
To obtain the number of days of rainfall occurrence in a month – the other
half that EI needs – the amount of rainfall in the 30-minute Malolos time-series
data was summed up per day, and the number of days in a month with at least
2.5 mm of rainfall (defined as light to moderate rain (PAGASA, n.a.)) was
counted. As was done in the rainfall volume data, the mean and CV for the four-
year rainfall occurrence data was calculated. Again, take note that Case 1 will
concern only FMAM and Case 2 will concern both FMAM and ASONDJ.
72
Note that rainfall occurrence also has its corresponding DF indicator,
which will need a baseline information on the average number of rainy days per
month. But since such data is not readily available, this indicator was set aside.
Fig.4.13. Flowchart of methodology for obtaining EI values as performed in this study.
B. Sensitivity Index
The Sensitivity Index (SI) aims to measure the degree to which crops
respond to drought conditions. Of the three ADVI composite indices, SI is
perhaps the most complex because it has a lot of conditions to consider, with
crop vigor alone being different across all agriculturally viable plants – and even
within the varieties of a single crop such as rice.
In this study’s case, the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI),
obtainable with the help of multiband satellite imagery, was used as a means of
assessing sensitivity en masse and as an overview of crop conditions during the
agricultural seasons. The general idea is that during an entire cropping season,
crops that respond favourably to both the climatic and the soil situation will have
higher NDVI values overall than crops that are otherwise. In this regard, when
used alone, SI can be used to assess the overall health of crops being grown –
and possibly even predict how a farming community will fare for the rest of the
cropping season (this item shall be discussed at the start-of-season NDVI part of
the next subsection).
For ADVI’s SI indicators, the Andhra Pradesh study made use of MODIS
Terra data for determining NDVI (Murthy, Laxman, & Sesha Sai, 2015, p. 166).
But while MODIS captures the idea of seasonal integration due to its high
temporal resolution, its 250-m spatial resolution may be too coarse for a study
area of roughly two square kilometres subdivided into even smaller farm parcels,
potentially hampering variability analysis (this reliance on variances for analysis
73
can be a double-edged sword, as to be discussed in the Issues Encountered
subsection). Given the unavailability of readily-available high resolution satellite
imagery that can match MODIS’s high temporal resolution, the next best option
available is to use free data from the USGS’s Landsat program, which has a 30m
spatial resolution and of which farm parcel variability (or constancy) may be
better assessed. The catch, however, is that Landsat 8 images have a low
temporal resolution, and there is the question on the suitability of such images for
assessing months-long vulnerability issues.
Two sets of SI maps were therefore developed for this study. The first set
made use of Landsat 8 images to take advantage of its moderately high spatial
resolution which, by hypothetical reasoning, would provide better SI (and by
extension, ADVI) classifications. The second set made use of MODIS NDVI data,
as the original ADVI study proceeded with.
Fig.4.14. A Landsat 8 NDVI image with Pitpitan’s digitized political boundaries and farm
parcels as overlays (details on deriving Landsat NDVI at the next section).
74
Fig.4.15. A MODIS NDVI image with Pitpitan’s digitized political boundaries and farm
parcels as overlays.
• NDVI values from Landsat 8 Images

For the first set of SI maps, five Landsat 8 satellite images of the study
area were downloaded from the EarthExplorer website
(http://earthexplorer.usgs.gov/), with two images for Pitpitan’s irrigated cropping
season for 2015 (10 February 2015 and 01 May 2015), two images for the rainfed
season for 2015 (06 September 2015 and 24 October 2015) and one image for
the irrigated season in 2015 (07 February 2014). The images from the said dates
were obtained because upon looking at the overlaid LandsatLook “Quality”
images on EarthExplorer, there are no or minimal marked conditions within the
study area that denote compromised pixel quality (USGS, 2015, p. web).
75
Table 4.1. Descriptions of marking colors for the 8-bit LandsatLook “Quality” image that
is, as of writing, available only to Landsat 8 products (USGS, 2015, p. web)
In the Andhra Pradesh study, the researchers included NDVI information
for the first month of the rainy season (August in their case) as the said month
“aptly captures the early season agricultural drought condition” (Murthy, Laxman,
& Sesha Sai, 2015, p. 166):
Delay in the onset of monsoon rains, inadequate amount of rainfall and
improper distribution of rainfall quite often lead to disturbances in the time
of sowing and extent of crop sown area – the manifestation of early
season agricultural drought situations”.
Considering the abovementioned statement, analysis of the first month of
the monsoon season of the year can give a predictive insight on how the rest of
the year will be faring for the farming community. As a possible analogy to this
prediction system, we may be able to assess how Pitpitan farmers will cope the
cropping seasons by analyzing the NDVI of a season’s first month, in this case
February and September. But due to an unexpected lack of viable Landsat 8
images to perform this operation, this item has to be set aside for the future (see
“Issues Encountered” for a discussion on this matter).
Fig.4.16.1. A view of the study area (marked by its bounding boxes) in EarthExplorer,
with a LandsatLook “Quality” image for 06 September 2015 overlay. Note the white-
colored pixels that denote “cloudy” areas around the study area. (USGS, 2015, p.
web).
76
Fig.4.16.2. The same view of the study area (marked by its bounding boxes) in
EarthExplorer, but this time with a LandsatLook “Quality” image overlay for 22 October
2015. This time whitish marks can be noted along the bounding box’s left edge.
To obtain the NDVI values (note that atmospheric corrections such as

FLAASH or QUAC was not performed since haze is minimal upon visual
inspection), digital number (DN) values for bands 5 (NIR) and 4 (Red) of the
Landsat 8 images were first converted to top-of-atmosphere (TOA) reflectance
values in QGIS 2.10 raster calculator using the formula (USGS, 2015, p. web):
′
= � � + �
where:
ρ ’ = TOA planetary reflectance, without correction for solar angle
Mρ = Band-specific multiplicative rescaling factor from the metadata
(REFLECTANCE_MULT_BAND_x, where x is the band number)
Aρ = Band-specific additive rescaling factor from the metadata
(REFLECTANCE_ADD_BAND_x, where x is the band number)
Qcal = Quantized and calibrated standard product pixel values (DN)
The obtained values are then corrected for the effects of sun angle with
the formula:
′
=
sin ��
77
where:
ρ = TOA planetary reflectance
θSE = Local sun elevation angle. The scene center sun elevation angle in degrees
is provided in the metadata (SUN_ELEVATION).
Once the planetary reflectance was obtained, land surface reflectance ρ was then
derived using the equation (Congedo, Munafò, & Macchi, 2013, pp. 22 - 23) (Congedo,
2014):
= [ ∗( − )∗ ]/ � ∗ cos ��
where:
ESUN = the mean solar exo-atmospheric irradiance = RADIANCE_MAXIMUM /
REFLECTANCE_MAXIMUM (from Landsat 8 image metadata)
ρp = path radiance using the first dark object subtraction (DOS1) technique:
cos �
= � ∗ + � − . ∗ � ∗
∗
DNmin = minimum DN value recorded within the image bounds corresponding to
the darkest object that can be found on the image
d = Earth-Sun distance in astronomical units for the Julian day-of-year (Congedo,
Munafò, & Macchi, 2013, p. 21)
And finally, the subsequent NDVI map was obtained using the formula:
� − − � − �
�= = =
� + + � + �
The resulting images were trimmed using Pitpitan’s boundary map.

After obtaining NDVI values for each cropping season, two metrics are to
be derived: a season’s integrated NDVI (SIN) and a season’s maximum NDVI
(SMN). In the original ADVI study, SIN for each area was obtained by summing a
season’s worth of NDVI values because, in theory, summing up these NDVI
values will stack these effects together so that once these values are normalized
into workable values they will be more or less representative of the agricultural
situation.
SMN was then derived by obtaining the maximum NDVI value of the
season (Murthy, Laxman, & Sesha Sai, 2015, p. 166). For this study, NDVI
values for the cropping seasons were first added together and then averaged
before performing SIN and SMN calculations.
78
Once this step was done, two sets of mean, standard deviation and
maximum values of NDVI for each time-series case were obtained with the help
of the zonal statistics plugin on QGIS 2.10.
Fig.4.17.1. Zonal statistics tool in QGIS 2.10, marking “Sum” (SIN) and “Maximum”
(SMN) for subsequent CV calculation.
Fig.4.17.2. The resulting calculation from the zonal statistics tool in QGIS 2.10 displayed
as new columns at the rightmost end.
The resulting attribute table was saved as a spreadsheet file in .csv format
for quicker calculations of coefficients of variance (the QGIS 2.10 field calculator
currently has no functions on calculating variance and standard deviation of field
values, thus requiring the help of a spreadsheet software to perform statistical
calculations). Two sets of SIN and SMN CV ( = �⁄ ) values for each parcel
�
(one CV between 2014 and 2015, and another CV between the irrigated season
and the rainfed season) were processed in a spreadsheet software. These CV
79
values assess a parcel’s vulnerability to weather variations, and a higher CV
value means the parcel is more susceptible (Murthy, Laxman, & Sesha Sai, 2015,
p. 166).
To obtain NDVI-based drought frequency, on the other hand, the same
consideration mentioned earlier in the Exposure Index section is made. It will be
assumed that for the early period of 2014 and 2015 there was no instance of
drought (DF = 0) while for the later period of 2015 there was an instance of
drought (DF = 1), again based on PAGASA’s assessment on the arrival of the El
Niño phenomenon for 2015 (Philippine News Agency, 2015, p. web).
Another methodology based on the Andhra Pradesh study exists for
deriving NDVI-based drought frequency, but is set aside in favour of the
abovementioned task. Refer to Appendix C for details on this methodology.
Fig.4.18. Flowchart of methodology for obtaining SI values as performed in this study

using Landsat imagery.
• NDVI values from MODIS NDVI data

For the second set of SI maps, MODIS NDVI data are used, in accordance
with the original Andhra Pradesh study’s methodology. The obvious advantage of
using MODIS NDVI data over Landsat 8 is its reduced processing requirements –
since the data is already in terms of NDVI, the steps from DN conversion to NDVI
are automatically eliminated, and re-projection and smoothing via filters are the
basic things needed to be performed.
Pre-processed MODIS NDVI stacked layer data (re-projected, stacked and
smoothened using Savitzky-Golay filtering) for the years 2014 and 2015 were
80
provided * . Bands 3 to 10 (each band represents a 16-day MODIS NDVI
integration with Band 1 representing January 1 to 16, thus Bands 3 to 10
represent integrated NDVI from February to May) from both datasets were
isolated for SIN and SMN processing. Bands 15 to 23 from the 2015 dataset, on
the other hand, were isolated for the rainfed season.
Using the same steps on QGIS (for raster calculator and zonal statistics
tool) and spreadsheet software (for CV computation) as those performed on the
Landsat images, SIN and SMN values were obtained for each farm parcel.
Once this step was done, two sets of mean, standard deviation and
maximum values of NDVI for each time-series case were obtained with the help
of the zonal statistics plugin on QGIS 2.10.
To take into account the absence of a Landsat-based start-of-monsoon
month NDVI assessment, the same was not done for the MODIS SI values.
Fig.4.19. Flowchart of methodology for obtaining SI values as performed in this study

using MODIS imagery.
• Effects of Crop Type and Cropping Pattern to Vulnerability

The ADVI study assessed the type of principal crops and cropping pattern
for better representation of a farming community’s vulnerability, since one crop
may have better adaptive capabilities than other crops (i.e. sorghum can adapt
better to dry conditions than groundnut). This factor can be represented via using
CV’s of de-trended time series crop yield as weights, as CV’s can be interpreted
*
The author would like to express appreciation to Engr. Mariecor Elaine R. Tagle for providing the pre-
p o essed MODI“ datasets that she also happe ed to e usi g fo pu sui g he ow Maste s’ Thesis
81
as a direct indicator of the sensitivity of the respective crop (Murthy, Laxman, &
Sesha Sai, 2015, p. 165).
In Pitpitan, however, farmers only make use of a single principal crop: rice
(Catindig, 2015). As a consequence, analysis of crop type and cropping pattern is
not needed since there is no variation in the first place. As a result, CV for this
indicator shall be zero.
C. Adaptive Capacity Index

The adaptive capacity index (AI) aims to estimate an agricultural area’s
capability to cope with adverse climate phenomena. The original ADVI study
made use of soil water holding capacity (WHC), irrigation support and percentage
of land holdings for agriculture as parameters, but this can be expanded to
include other items such as groundwater support (an item intended by the original
study to use but was set aside due to the absence of good data), soil salinity (for
farms near coastlines) and other items that can either be beneficial or detrimental
to farmers.
Take note that the original ADVI study assessed a mandal’s agricultural
socioeconomic capability via the percentage of agricultural landholdings that are
considered small landholdings out of the assumption that these smallholder
farmers would be expected to have less adaptive capacity than those who own
larger tracts of land (Murthy, Laxman, & Sesha Sai, 2015, p. 167). For this study,
this socioeconomic indicator is translated as the percentage of a farm parcel’s
area over Pitpitan’s total agricultural area, with the assumptions that each parcel
is owned by a different farmer and that a larger parcel would mean more space
for growing crops and thus a better income and a better adaptive capacity.
This study’s author would however stress that this procedure on assessing
socioeconomic capacity is possibly an oversimplification, as it does not consider
situations such as a single farmer owning multiple parcels or a group of farmers
merely being hired by landlords, among others. The limitations on obtaining data
on ownership and farmers’ assets due to trust and security issues further
prevented this study from considering other potentially more relevant
socioeconomic indicators for adaptive capacity assessment.
82
• Soil Information and Water Holding Capacity
A soil map in .shp format was downloaded from the Philippine GIS Data
Clearinghouse (http://philgis.org) which in turn sourced its data from the
Philippine Bureau of Agricultural Research (BAR). The shapefile was clipped
using Pitpitan’s boundaries, and the resulting output revealed that the barangay
has two major soil types: hydrosol and Bigaa clay loam. Soil classification is an
important means to determine WHC defined as “the amount of water that a soil
can store that is available for use by plants”, and is expressed either as a volume
fraction, a percentage or as an amount. Volume fraction, in turn, is translated to
units of water per unit of soil depth (as in mm of water per mm of soil) (USDA
NRCS, 1998, p. 1). For the purposes of ADVI, WHC in unit measure is needed
(Murthy, Laxman, & Sesha Sai, 2015) (Wilhelmi & Wilhite, 2002, pp. 45 - 46).
Clay loam has a WHC volume fraction value ranging from 0.10 to 0.15,
while hydrosol (assuming that this soil type has large amounts of organic matter
due to its proximity to tidewaters (CSIRO, n.a.)) has 0.20 to 0.25 (USDA NRCS,
1998, p. 1). Given that the alternate wetting-and-drying (AWD) technique requires
the depth of 15cm for monitoring below-ground water level in rice paddies (IRRI,
n.a.), the WHC volume fraction for each soil type can be multiplied to 150mm to
obtain WHC in millimetres. As a result, WHC for rice in clay loam is 15.0mm to
22.5mm while WHC for rice in hydrosol is 30mm to 37.5mm. For the purposes of
this study, the lower values are used.
83
Fig.4.20. Pitpitan farm parcel boundary map overlaid on top of the barangay’s soil map,
derived from the BAR data downloaded at http://philgis.org. The blue area is clay loam
while the red area is hydrosol.
• Farmers’ Capacity via Landowning and Irrigation Support

As stated earlier, the original ADVI study made the assumption that the
larger the size of a farmer’s parcel, the larger his or her individual adaptive
capacity is (Murthy, Laxman, & Sesha Sai, 2015, p. 167) simply because a larger
parcel can produce more crops for his or her owner. The area of each farm parcel
was calculated with the help of QGIS 2.10’s field calculator, and the resulting
area was converted into area percentage over the total farming area as a form of
data normalization.
Similarly, a well-irrigated parcel means better adaptive capacity for its
owner (Murthy, Laxman, & Sesha Sai, 2015, p. 167) for the same reason. Given
the absence of a good irrigation map for the study area from the Philippines’
National Irrigation Administration (NIA), an alternative irrigation support map was
instead produced based on the personal communication with a Pitpitan farmer
held 11 June 2016.
84
Fig.4.21. Pitpitan irrigation support map based on a personal communication with a
Pitpitan farmer in 11 June 2016. The blue areas represent irrigated areas, the red areas
represent otherwise.
After obtaining information on soil type and producing an irrigation support
map, it is important to transfer this information to the primary land parcel
shapefile. This will entail making use of a series of overlay analyses in a GIS
application. For a step-by-step procedure on how this was done in QGIS 2.10,
refer to the contents of Appendix B that is attached to this publication.
Fig.4.22. Flowchart of methodology for obtaining AI values as performed in this study

(refer to Appendix B for a step-by-step processing procedure).
85
D. Derivation of Weights for reduced ADVI (rADVI)
After deriving the indicators for ADVI, there is a need to calculate and
normalize the weights for each indicator. From the original twelve indicators for
EI, seven for SI and three for AI in the original study (Murthy, Laxman, & Sesha
Sai, 2015, p. 166), Pitpitan’s ADVI indicators were reduced to eight for EI, four for
SI and three for AI (two in the case of the rainfed season, as irrigation is not
provided during this period).
Before the weights were calculated, an assessment of the expected
functional relationships of each indicator was done, as indicated in Table 3.2. All
indicators, except for irrigation support, was found to be functionally correct (i.e.
the larger the farm parcel, the smaller its expected vulnerability rating because
the larger landowners should get more produce from it, thus it should have a
negative relationship). In the case of irrigation support, since the indication of
water availability is a simple Boolean zero or one (and not a fraction of an area,
which is hypothetically more accurate provided a better map is available), it
should have a functionally reducing effect on the output AI (and by extension on
ADVI) and therefore it should have a negative relationship instead of a positive
one as indicated in Table 3.2.
Scatter plots of the derived values were also made to check for outliers
that can distort calculations. And indeed, a very huge outlier was found for AI’s
land parcel area indicator. This outlier was taken care of by setting its value close
to the second highest value (the largest parcel plot is still going be classified as
having the best adaptive capacity in terms of the idea that farmers with bigger
plots can harvest more crops).
86
Fig.4.23. Scatter plot of land parcel areas in square meters, revealing the very large
outlier (boxed in red).
After the assessment of scatter plots of the individual indicators for each of
the three parameters, value normalization was done to make these indicators
easier to interpret. This was achieved by using a minimum-maximum method for
constructing composite indicators, with the aim of transforming these values into
uni-directional form ranging from 0 to 1 (OECD, 2008, p. 85):
� −�
�, � � = ,� � � � ��
� �� − �
� �� − �
�, � � = ,� � � � ��
� �� − �
where:
Xi = the indicator value for parcel i
Xmax = the maximum value of indicator X for the study area
Xmin = the minimum value of indicator X for the study area
In the case of EI indicators, the listed mean and CV values are divided by
the largest factor of 10 that will reduce the largest mean and CV value to the
tenth decimal place. If the indicator is meant to be a negative value, the reduced
value is subtracted to 1 to make them uni-directional.
The weights for each indicator are obtained by taking them to vary
inversely to the variance of indicator values over the land parcels. By doing this,
“the large variation in any of the indicators will not unduly dominate the
contribution of the rest of the indicators or distort inter-regional comparisons”. wj
87
is therefore obtained by using the formula (Murthy, Laxman, & Sesha Sai, 2015,
p. 167):
=
√ � ( )
−
�
=� �� = [∑ ]
= √ �
where xij = the normalized value of an index indicator j for parcel i.
Weight derivation is done with the help of a spreadsheet software. Note

that this procedure does not apply to the EI indicators since it is assumed that
there is equal rainfall throughout the study area, and no variance exists between
individual parcels in the first place. As a result, EI indicators share the same
weight.
Code Meaning
I2014 Irrigated Season 2014
I2015 Irrigated Season 2015
R2015 Rainfed Season 2015
TSR Total Season Rainfall Amount
SPR Sowing Period Rainfall Amount
TSD Total Season Rainy Days Count
SPD Sowing Period Rainy Days Count
SIN Season's Integrated NDVI
SMN Season's Maximum NDVI
WHCL Water Holding Capacity, Lower Limit
IrS Irrigation Support
LAP Parcel's Land Area as Percentage of Total Farm Area
Table 4.2.1. List of codes for interpreting the content of Tables 4.2.2. and 4.2.3.
88
I2014 VS I2015 ADVI Index # of Indicators General Indicators Indicator Sub-Items Weights
Mean 0.125
TSR
CV 0.125
Mean 0.125
SPR
CV 0.125
EI 8
Mean 0.125
TSD
CV 0.125
Mean 0.125
SPD
CV 0.125
CV 0.221095961
SIN
DF 0.25
SI 4
CV 0.278904039
SMN
DF 0.25
WHCL (single) 0.42626521
AI 3 IrS (single) 0.11395699
LAP (single) 0.4597778
I2015 VS R2015 ADVI Index # of Indicators General Indicators Indicator Sub-Items Weights
TSR Mean 0.125
CV 0.125
SPR Mean 0.125
CV 0.125
EI 8
TSD Mean 0.125
CV 0.125
SPD Mean 0.125
CV 0.125
SIN CV 0.202196969
DF 0.25
SI 4
SMN CV 0.297803031
DF 0.25
AI 2
LAP (single) 0.518911379
Table 4.2.2. Obtained weights for Pitpitan’s rADVI assessment for the Landsat datasets,
setting aside the inapplicable indicators.
89
I2014 VS I2015 ADVI Index # of Indicators General Indicators Indicator Sub-Items Weights
Mean 0.125
TSR
CV 0.125
Mean 0.125
SPR
CV 0.125
EI 8
Mean 0.125
TSD
CV 0.125
Mean 0.125
SPD
CV 0.125
CV 0.252764894
SIN
DF 0.25
SI 4
CV 0.247235106
SMN
DF 0.25
AI 3 IrS (single) 0.11395699
LAP (single) 0.4597778
I2015 VS R2015 ADVI Index # of Indicators General Indicators Indicator Sub-Items Weights
TSR Mean 0.125
CV 0.125
SPR Mean 0.125
CV 0.125
EI 8
TSD Mean 0.125
DF 0.125
SPD Mean 0.125
DF 0.125
SIN CV 0.239932131
DF 0.25
SI 4
SMN CV 0.260067869
DF 0.25
AI 2
LAP (single) 0.518911379
Table 4.2.3. Obtained weights for Pitpitan’s rADVI assessment for the MODIS datasets,
setting aside the inapplicable indicators.
E. rADVI and the Final Output

Once the weights for each index indicator was determined, values for EI,
SI and AI for each parcel was finally calculated using the linear sum formula
(Murthy, Laxman, & Sesha Sai, 2015, p. 167):
�
=∑
=
where:
yi = the value of a composite index (EI, SI or AI) for parcel i
wj = the assigned weight for an index indicator j
xij = the normalized value of an index indicator j for parcel i
90
K = number of indicators in an index (10 for EI, 4 for SI and 3 for AI)
ADVI was obtained by adding the three indices (Murthy, Laxman, & Sesha
Sai, 2015, p. 167):
�= �+ �+ �
In the Andhra Pradesh study, categorization based on ADVI is done by
fitting the proper statistical distribution, in this case a beta distribution since the
ADVI histogram is skewed (Murthy, Laxman, & Sesha Sai, 2015, p. 167),
normally positively. For the purposes of this study, the calculated ADVI values
were normalized using the minimum-maximum method so that the values will
range from 0 to 1 (OECD, 2008, p. 85), and the classifications were made in
equal intervals of 0.2, with 0 – 0.2 being classified as “less vulnerable” and 0.8 to
1 being “very highly vulnerable”.
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PART V: RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
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RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
As noted in the early sections of the reduced ADVI methodology, this study
provided two cases of ADVI output analysis:
- Case 1 is a “between-year” integration of Pitpitan’s irrigated cropping
season for 2014 and 2015, and is principally the same setup as that of the
Andhra Pradesh study since it is an integration of data between two years
- Case 2 is a “within-year” integration of the irrigated and rainfed seasons
for 2015 as an attempt to check if the study area’s vulnerability changes
depending on the cropping season and if it can be done using a single
year’s worth of data
The differences in the two cases were especially significant for the sensitivity
index (SI) and the adaptive capacity index (AI); the exposure index (EI), on the other
hand, was assumed constant all throughout the barangay due to its relatively small
size against the rest of Bulacan and the absence of nearby rain gauge information
other than the one from the Malolos AWS that is suitable for rainfall distribution
interpolation purposes.
But before delving into the ADVI outputs, it may be interesting to assess first
the outputs of its three composite indices (exposure, sensitivity and adaptive
capacity) on their own maps, treating them separately as if they are standalone
analysis tools. These indices can already tell stories about the study area before
being combined to tell an overall story.
To provide consistent categorizations of vulnerability, SI, AI and ADVI values
were normalized using the Min-Max method (OECD, 2008, p. 85) and the
corresponding categories were set to equal intervals of five from zero to one. The
equal-interval class ranges for the component indices followed that of the Andhra
Pradesh study (Murthy, Laxman, & Sesha Sai, 2015, p. 168).
The case of EI
If localized rain gauge data is available for processing and interpolation, a
produced EI map would show the distribution of rainfall across the study area,
allowing for planning of large-scale projects related to water supply such as
rainwater harvesting and improved irrigation. On the local scale, an EI map would
allow for promoting adaptive practices that either aim to preserve soil moisture such
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as on-site mulching, or to switch to crops capable of growing in arid conditions such
as centrosema feedstock.
As stated in the Methodology section, the only usable data in coming up with
EI values came from the Malolos AWS data provided by the Bulacan PDRRMO,
because in terms of proximity Barangay Pitpitan already shares its borders with the
aforementioned municipality and is thus very close.
Fig. 5.1.1. A screenshot of the Measure tool on QGIS 2.14, where the depicted approximate
distance between the Bulacan Provincial Capitol and Barangay Pitpitan is at 7.527
kilometers. Bing Aerial is used as a basemap via the OpenLayers plugin.
On the other hand, the station indicated by PAGASA for sourcing rainfall
information for Bulacan – the Science Garden in Quezon City (PAGASA, 2011, p.
32) – is approximately 28 kilometers from Pitpitan (see Fig.5.1). Whereas data from
this station is available via the PhilFSIS website (Philippine Statistics Authority,
2014), the sheer distance makes interpolation procedures impractical, as the
variations across Pitpitan would be negligible. In addition, the rainfall data from
PhilFSIS is provided on a monthly basis instead of a daily one, virtually removing any
chance at extracting daily rainfall information.
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Fig. 5.1.2. The same Measure tool on QGIS 2.14, this time depicting the approximate
distance between the Science Garden in Quezon City and Pitpitan at 27.694 kilometers.
Bing Aerial is also used as a basemap via the OpenLayers plugin.
But while the generated EI values will not help in determining rainfall
distribution among the farm parcels, they can nonetheless contribute to the overall
ADVI ratings – which can be especially significant when analysing the results
between Case 1 and Case 2.
SI Results
SI maps provide end-users with a general idea of how farmlands fare during a
cropping season. By using NDVI-based indicators to provide an overview of the
growth of crops from sowing to harvesting, SI assesses the performance of
agricultural areas without having to go on the field for research work (field activities
for validation purposes belong to another case). It can help determine farming sites
that are expected to have high yields, as well as sites that need attention.
For Pitpitan, this study’s author observed that, in Case 1, both the Landsat
and MODIS items depicted clustering of parcels with high vulnerability at the
southerly areas. These areas were to be considered more sensitive to the adverse
effects of agricultural drought.
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season.
season.
As SI is an NDVI-driven composite index, the high rankings at the south may
be attributed to the absence of vegetation in the southerly areas. Take note that the
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southerly parcels are in close proximity to an aquaculture region where fish farmers
allow the intrusion of saltwater in their pens.
Fig.5.3. Pitpitan’s farm parcel boundary map overlaid on Google Earth dated 25 January
2015. Note of the dominance of greenery at the northern areas in the top image, which is not
the case in the south.
The situation is different for Case 2, however. As shown in Figs. 5.4.1 and
5.4.2, although there were still observable clustering of vulnerabilities at the
southerly areas, the number of high vulnerability ratings were greatly reduced for
both Landsat and MODIS SI maps. These observations may stem from the
completely different climatic situation between the irrigated dry season and the
rainfed wet season, as the presence of rain in the latter season may be providing
enough water for crops and other plants to thrive on. Intuitively, this can mean that
Pitpitan’s farms may be more reliable in terms of agricultural productivity during the
rainfed season.
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parcel for that season.
parcel for that season.
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AI Results
In the Related Literature, one of the cited strengths of ADVI over other
vulnerability indices is its inclusion of an adaptive capacity index as part of its
analysis. Assessing a place’s adaptive capacity allows for prioritization of
beneficiaries in the planning phase, which is important especially when support
resources are scarce. In this study’s case, adaptive capacity was assessed using
three indicators: soil type for water holding capacity, irrigation support, and size of
farm parcels as a socioeconomic item on crop production potential.
One single indicator marks the difference between Case 1 and Case 2, and
that is irrigation support. Irrigation supply is exclusive only to the dry irrigated season
from February to May, and this is reflected by reduced vulnerability ratings in the
form of an L-shape in Case 1 when compared against Case 2. Clustering of high
vulnerabilities still persist at the southerly parcels, however.
more vulnerable the parcel for that season.
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more vulnerable the parcel for that season.
rADVI Results
The final rADVI maps were created by summing the three composite indices
for each of the two cases and then normalizing the resulting rADVI values to fit an
equal interval classification scheme. These maps were intended to provide an overall
assessment of climatic vulnerabilities of farm parcels when combining the effects of
exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity.
In general, both cases depict an overall clustering of vulnerabilities at the
southerly farm parcels, and these observations held true whether Landsat or MODIS
images were used. The northerly parcels, on the other hand, fare much better,
reflected in their generally lower vulnerability hues.
When comparing the vulnerability ratings between Case 1 and Case 2, one
might notice that vulnerability hues are lighter in the latter than the former. This is
most likely driven by the much lighter vulnerability hues defined in Case 2’s SI map
as well as the magnitude difference between the irrigated EI and rainfed EI maps,
providing hints that Pitpitan may be faring better during the rainfed season than the
irrigated season. Again, the similar observable clusters at the south are reflected
either in Landsat or MODIS.
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Fig.5.7.1. Case 1 ADVI for the Landsat datasets.
Fig.5.7.2. Case 1 ADVI for the MODIS datasets.
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Fig.5.7.3. Case 2 ADVI for the Landsat datasets.
Fig.5.7.4. Case 2 ADVI for the MODIS datasets.
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Post-rADVI Actions
Overall, the four rADVI maps depict the southerly parcels being more
vulnerable than the northerly areas and will thus require more attention for adaptive
design.
From the developed table of recommendations (as referred from the table in
Appendix A), the following advices are given to the southern region for the irrigated
season of 2016, given the “baseline” rADVI map:
- Since much of the southerly parcels fall in high vulnerability ratings, the
soil is expected to be very dry, prone to crusting and unable to absorb
water from light rains, and made worse by the presence of the El Niño
phenomenon. Farmers in that area should consider making use of a heavy
returbator/tilling tractor for preparing the land. They should then be able to
grow some viable crops afterwards, given the claim that they can grow
crops as long as the soil is tilled.
- Since the season considered in this output is for the irrigated season, and
since PAGASA declared the persistence of the El Niño phenomenon way
up to early 2016 (Philippine News Agency, 2015, p. web), rains are not
expected to be present. Providing a layer of mulch for trapping moisture is
therefore not going to help, as mulch may impede the entry of water from
any incoming light rain during the season.
- If possible, planting of rice should be avoided. If it is not possible, using
Pitpitan’s local stocks of rice may survive the dry spell, as the barangay is
traditionally last to receive any water from the Angat Dam and thus have to
make use of whatever little irrigation support to grow rice. The possibility of
the local stocks requiring less water than others due to the geographical
situation is therefore plausible.
- The following crops are recommended since, according to literature,
Bulacan PAO advices and farmers’ experience, these crops can endure
dry conditions with limited irrigation support: mung beans, sponge gourds,
pumpkins, string beans, eggplants, tomatoes, watermelons, and
centrosema feedstock.
The following advices are to be given to the northerly regions, on the other
hand:
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- Since most of the northerly parcels have larger areas and are classified as
moderately vulnerable, they are expected to fare better than their southerly
counterparts. Thus, farming practices customary in the Pitpitan setting can
be performed on these fields.
- Given the presence of irrigation from the Angat Dam, the northerly parcels
can afford making use of high-yield rice varieties although, with the threat
of the El Niño phenomenon, farmers can opt to use drought-resistant
varieties instead as good measure.
- The northerly parcels can make use of the following crops to supplement
rice production: mung beans, sponge gourds, pumpkins, string beans,
eggplants, tomatoes, watermelons and corn.
The nature of these recommendations are subject to changes as further
refinements to the table should be made by succeeding researches.
Output Validation
One issue that is of concern with the usage of ADVI is on validating its output,
as “there is no straightforward procedure to validate composite indices made of
dissimilar indicators" (Murthy, Laxman, & Sesha Sai, 2015, p. 169). After all, since
the very objective of indicators is to attempt to capture intangible processes it is hard
to validate such an indicator’s effectiveness, lending a degree of uncertainty to the
results (Vincent, 2007, p. 16). Furthermore, this study made use of reduced ADVI,
and validating its output despite the setting aside of indicators from the original ADVI
is needed.
The Andhra Pradesh study made an indirect approach of validating their
results by assessing de-trended crop yield variability of clusters of mandals with
varying vulnerability categories, and proving that the cluster with the highest
vulnerability classification also had the highest crop yield variability that ranges from
20% to as high as 80%, and vice versa (Murthy, Laxman, & Sesha Sai, 2015, p.
169). The crop yield data provided by the Bulacan Provincial Agricultural Office
(PAO), however, was aggregated on a municipal and not on a barangay or parcel
level, disallowing the aforementioned validation scheme.
In this study’s case, validation was done by returning to PAO and Pitpitan’s
farmers and engaging them in separate recorded interviews.
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• Validation with the Bulacan PAO
For the case of PAO, the rADVI maps and the table of
recommendations were shown to the concerned officers and asked for
experts’ comments about their validity (Carillo & Delos Santos, 2016). Being
the experts when it comes to knowing crop suitability for Bulacan, their
opinion regarding the contents of the table will help in refining the
recommendations to be issued. As good measure, this study’s author
recorded the discussions using using a cellular phone application for voice
recording.
In general, the PAO officers expressed their great interest in the results
of the study as it can be a potential tool for decision making, not only as it
attempts to parameterize vulnerability measures, but also as it tries to tackle
on actual recommendations that can be considered for a final decision. They
even expressed their desire to have the rADVI methodology tried on a per-
municipal, or even a per-barangay, basis throughout the province.
They did point out, however, that while the rADVI map can be
potentially helpful given the need to reduce the parameters used, the item on
irrigation support is a must have for any formulation of vulnerability indices for
farmers as irrigation is still one of the core driving factors for proper planning
on agricultural activities. In lieu of an actual irrigation map, they suggested to
use a ‘service map’ from the National Irrigation Administration.
In addition, the PAO officers pointed out that their office is continuously
pushing for farmers to adopt a system of crop diversification, promoting the
growing of vegetables alongside rice. The difficulty in implementing the
program lies on the high maintenance requirements of growing vegetables
and their high perishability as against that of rice, and because farmers prefer
to engage in other jobs rather than keep track of vegetable growth. The
officers did claim that in Northern Luzon, farmers who engaged in both rice
and vegetable production became wealthy, and they hope to cite their
success stories to inspire others to do the same.
They also noted that some of the researched potential crop
replacements for highly vulnerable areas listed in the Table of
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Recommendations are ill-suited in the Bulacan setting, as some of these
crops are better suited for highland farming (i.e. the chop suey vegetables of
carrots, bell peppers, cabbages, cauliflowers and others) and for certain soil
types (i.e. onions prefer very loose soil over compact ones), and thus
suggested some corrections. The Table was therefore modified to take into
account the differing necessities of highland and lowland farming (refer to
Appendix A for the table’s contents).
• Validation with Pitpitan’s Farmers

As for the farmers, on the other hand, being the ones who work and
live directly on the study area’s soil, their knowledge of the layout and the
situation of their lands is expected to be excellent. This study’s author is
aware, nevertheless, that these farmers are not into mincing words – a rather
common situation from the author’s experiences in the academe, with its strict
observation of terminologies. They are also expected to be busy people, and
assembling them as an audience is to be viewed as a favour they grant to
researchers. With these in mind, the author re-applied the unstructured,
casual style done in June of 2015 for the validation focus group discussion
held in March of 2016. As was done before, the talks were recorded using a
cellular phone application for voice recording.
An uncategorized farm parcel boundary map overlaid on a Google
Earth image was first shown to the five attending farmers. They were asked to
indicate the areas where they had better rice harvests over other areas
(Catindig, 2016). The goal of this approach was to provide a sort of “blind test”
to check if, without any knowledge whatsoever about the final rADVI map,
farmers will say that there is indeed greater vulnerability at the south than at
the north as assessed by the rADVI calculations.
The farmers ultimately pointed out that, indeed, the northerly parcels
are enjoying much better yearly harvests than their southerly counterparts – to
the point that at dry seasons the southerly parcels can even have no produce
at all! They explained that the soils at the northerly farms are elevated and are
of much better quality, the irrigation received from the Angat Dam reaches the
north first than the south, and that the southerly regions suffer from seawater
contamination during the rainy season to the extent that the smell of
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vaporized water is akin to a sea breeze and salt crystals form during the driest
times. They also claimed that whereas the northerly farmlands can do
something about producing crops even in an El Niño period, the southerly
counterparts are sometimes better left barren as virtually no crops can grow
there.
They were therefore surprised and glad to know that these
observations were reflected in a Case 1 rADVI output map that was revealed
afterwards, stating that the methodology can indeed be useful in assessing a
farming site’s vulnerability. As a side note, they also expressed their interest
in any research that would make these high saline areas usable for growing
crops.
The farmers also noted that even during the wet season, the southerly
parcels are still more vulnerable than the northerly ones largely due to
topography – the region’s comparative lower elevation causes waterlogging
that completely drowns rice crops, not to mention the persistent problems of
seawater intrusion happening simultaneously. They were unaware of the
existence of submergence-resistant rice varieties that were developed by
IRRI, and expressed their interest in trying these out themselves.
When asked about their opinion regarding the possibility to grow
vegetables as an adaptation practice, the farmers claimed that at the current
state of the southerly regions no crops can grow at the area. In addition, some
of their fellow farmers prefer jobs such as construction work while waiting for
the rice to mature.
When asked about their opinion regarding the contents of the Table of
Recommendations, Pitpitan’s farmers mirrored the same concern as that of
the PAO officials on the actual suitability of crops given the lowland-to-
highland climate differences and soil conditions.
Later in the study, one of the interviewed farmers helped in providing a
rough estimate of the extent of the parcels’ geologic and climatic situation as
a physical map (see Figs. 4.7 and 5.8) (C. Catindig, personal communication,
June 11, 2016), showing patterns that are observable on Case 1 output ADVI
maps (see Figs. 5.7.1 and 5.7.2).
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Fig.5.8. Estimated re-interpretation in QGIS 2.14 of the rough physical validation map
provided by a farmer-interviewee, showing stable and problematic parcels (C.
Catindig, personal communication, June 11, 2016).
In general, both PAO and Pitpitan’s farmers deemed the results of the ADVI
study as interesting and insightful given its existing status as a modified
methodology. They also pointed the need for refinements on the Table of
Recommendations preferably by asking the help of experts in the field of vegetable
agriculture.
Remarks on ADVI’s performance

ADVI relies heavily on the coefficient of variation (CV) for its assessment of EI
and SI indicators. Since CV shows the extent of variation in relation to the population
mean, CV should only be used in nonnegative datasets (GraphPad, 2009), as
negative values can cause the mean in the divisor to get close to zero, resulting in
very large CV values. This in turn makes this metric a double-edged sword, as CV is
highly sensitive to variations in the mean. In ADVI’s case, while both rainfall and
NDVI are nonnegative values, the presence of outliers can greatly affect CV
calculations, making it imperative to check the datasets for such outliers and dealing
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with them first. The need for variations is also the driving force behind ADVI’s time-
series data requirements.
After studying the two cases for ADVI calculation, this study’s author
recognized that a “between-year” analysis is the better implementation of the
methodology than a “within-year” analysis, as the original ADVI study did make use
of information variances for entire years and not within a single year for its
vulnerability analysis. If the original aim of the “within-year” analysis (that is, checking
if parcels’ vulnerabilities change due to the cropping season) is to be achieved, then
comparing two “between-year” analyses of the irrigated and rainfed seasons would
be the better method.
In addition, with the exposure component index of either ADVI case being
largely constant all throughout the study area, the end results were deemed largely
by the sensitivity and adaptive capacity components. A non-constant EI gradient
map would therefore be preferred, and this is achievable via the usage of multiple
rain gauge points. But such a map may only be produced with an ADVI analysis of a
larger scale unit, such as at the municipal level.
The author, however, would like to point out that this study proved that ADVI
is implementable not only on a barangay level but even in a smaller scale in the form
of individual farm parcels. The Andhra Pradesh study may have had to assess
drought vulnerability on a mandal level because of spatial limitations of the MODIS
Terra images they used for NDVI calculations, but with higher resolution images –
preferably those that are even better than Landsat 8’s 30m spatial resolution – ADVI
can be scaled to assess vulnerabilities on a parcel level.
Also, with the modified but otherwise successful implementation of the rADVI
methodology for a “between-year analysis” of Pitpitan’s irrigated season from
February to May, it is possible to use rADVI for analysing months-long cropping
seasons and not just for a yearlong period as the original study performed. Such
analysis in a three- or four-month period can help in further observation and
determination of agricultural vulnerability patterns since the Philippines experiences
varying climate patterns that stretch months.
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Issues Encountered
Before proceeding with the analysis of results, it is important to first discuss
the deviations made in this study’s methodology for implementing rADVI. This
section provides a list of issues and the assessment of their effects.
1) Absence of readily available long-term data with high spatial and temporal
resolution for the Philippines
As pointed out in the Scope and Limitations section, ADVI is a highly
data-centric index. The Andhra Pradesh study made use of high resolution
(both spatial and temporal) time-series rainfall data and time-series satellite
imagery in calculating indicators for exposure, sensitivity and adaptive
capacity. The use of data with varying values is especially necessary since
calculations for coefficients of variation, season’s integrated NDVI and
season’s maximum NDVI depend on these variations.
However, such high resolution data, save for rainfall information, is not
readily available in the Philippines. While government agencies may possess
good data (such as the Bulacan Provincial Capitol’s farm parcel data in vector
format), bureaucratic roadblocks prevent academic researchers from
accessing them as primary data. Sourcing from commercial satellite image
providers may not be an option, either, because of very high acquisition costs.
In India, these situations are taken care of because its government has an
excellent space program for data gathering and processing.
Freely available data, on the other hand, may have good temporal (in
the sense that the sensor has long been in continuous operation) but low
spatial resolution (MODIS) may have good spatial but low temporal resolution
(Landsat), or are generalized (PhilFSIS monthly rainfall). This situation
compromises the usability of some ADVI indicators that highly depend on
variability.
The original ADVI study provided a working methodology for deriving
weights in case some of the indicators are not applicable for a study area. In
such situations, unusable indicators are simply set aside and weights are
adjusted to reflect these removals. And when the time comes that the
Philippines is finally capable of producing high resolution data, the removed
indicators may be brought back to be used for better vulnerability assessment.
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Listed below are the ADVI indicators set aside for this study, and the
situation that is needed to reconsider them in future usage of this index:
❖ Drought Frequency Based on Rainfall Volume and Occurrence – to
be reconsidered once tables of daily temporal resolution is readily
available from PAGASA
❖ Start-of-Season NDVI CV and Drought Frequency – to be
reconsidered once Landsat 8 has provided at least half a decade’s
worth of usable satellite images, or once a readily available source
of optical imagery with a high temporal resolution has materialized
❖ Cropping Pattern – to be reconsidered once a farming community
has adopted crop variation as a climate adaptation tool
2) The suitability and availability of Landsat 8 images for the study area
In this study, Landsat’s performance for SI map generation was pitted
against that of MODIS to verify the hypothesis of a high spatial but low
temporal resolution Landsat 8 image having better vulnerability assessment
over a high temporal but low spatial resolution MODIS NDVI image. In the
end, both systems seem to offer the same quality of output, apart from some
isolated very high vulnerability hues marked in Landsat-based maps.
All in all, based on the results of this study, Landsat 8 images do not
offer a significant advantage over MODIS NDVI. The added workload of
processing a single Landsat image to NDVI (digital numbers to TOA
reflectance and then to surface reflectance) made Landsat-based maps
longer to produce, in contrast to a MODIS NDVI image where re-projection
and smoothing are the only activities needed. Also, there is a question on the
ability of a set of Landsat images to integrate the nuances of an entire
cropping season given its low temporal resolution (at most eight usable
Landsat images for an entire Pitpitan irrigated season), something that is not
an issue for MODIS NDVI (capable of daily recording, not to mention the
availability of pre-integrated images).
In this matter, research can be done to see if using and integrating
Landsat images within a cropping season can capture a study area’s temporal
nuances. Alternatively, using fused Landsat and MODIS images via STARFM
(Gao, Masek, Schwaller, & Hall, 2006) for SI map generation can be explored
in future studies.
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3) Data artifacts due to the usage of manually digitized vector data and cross-
software processing
One of the direct effects of overlaying a set of manually digitized vector
information from ungeoreferenced raster data, made complicated by its lossy
compression format, is the presence of unintended overlaps. The issue is
made worse by the absence of any means of validation due to the
unavailability of, or denial of access to, reference information in the form of
boundary corner coordinates, georeferenced high resolution imagery, and
others. If care is not considered while processing the data, these artifacts can
cause unwanted or even erroneous duplicates.
Parallel to this conversion issue is a rather obscure, but nevertheless
significant in terms of the process workflow, problem where the QGIS
MMQGIS plugin treats spreadsheet numerical information as a string of
characters and thus classify these data as such after performing data joins
with corresponding vector features. And since GIS software prevents the
tinkering of field data classifications into other types for security purposes, an
added step of creating duplicate fields in real number format should be
included
4) The need to check coordinate system consistency
This issue, whilst so basic that geomatics specialists will treat it as a
rule of thumb, may not be obvious to other fields and thus there is no harm to
indicate it as something that requires attention.
It is necessary to make sure that every information used in GIS follows
a single coordinate reference system, and then convert those that are
otherwise. The coordinate system, in return, must be suitable for the purpose
it serves. In the case of this study, since area calculations in meters are
needed, the coordinate system should be in grid coordinates (in meters) and
not geographic coordinates (in degrees), thus the usage of WGS 84 UTM
Zone 51N as the study’s standard reference.
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PART VI: CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
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CONCLUSIONS
This study aimed to develop a methodology for determining the vulnerability of
local Filipino farmers to adverse climate effects in a discrete level, that is, the
methodology’s output should be encapsulated within vector features for better
understanding by farmers. Producing outputs in vector format should also promote
interactivity once it is applied as a component of a GIS-based recommender system.
This study has successfully demonstrated that the Agricultural Drought
Vulnerability Index (ADVI) – a composite index combining hydro-meteorological
exposure, land sensitivity and adaptive capacity components – is an applicable index
for the purposes of assessing an agricultural area’s vulnerability to an erratic climate,
especially on the occurrence of drought events. This study has shown that this index,
although data-centric, can be modified to allow the setting aside of some of its
original indicators when data is deficient for a selected area. This “reduction process”
is due to the provision of a means of determining the weights of individual indicators
per component index.
This study has shown that ADVI, be it on its complete or reduced form, can be
a suitable tool for an interactive recommender system due to its methodology
needing boundary information in vector format as an output repository. This is an
especially significant advantage over other drought vulnerability indices that produce
raster outputs because farmers can visualize their parcels better in a vector map
than in a raster image. The output of the reduced ADVI (rADVI) methodology was
validated to be useful, both by agriculturists and by farmers themselves.
This study has also developed a prototype design schematic on the Support
Information for Climate Adaptation Techniques in Agriculture (SICATA)
recommender system. SICATA’s software needs, its trigger and feedback
mechanisms, and its data requirements for proper functioning were outlined as a
reference for future development. There exists the issue on developing SICATA as a
fully automated or as an input-based system, however.
One of the core components of SICATA is a table of recommendations that
provides farmers with recommended adaptive practices, actions for planting rice and
possible non-rice alternative crops – be it from mainstream scientific research or
from the farmers’ own indigenous knowledge (IK) – depending on the vulnerability
assessment of their parcels. A prototype of this table is included in Appendix A, and
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it can be subjected to modifications to make it provide more proper
recommendations.
There are, of course, challenges to this study. The most important issue is
that of having to make do of whatever data is usable in the Philippine setting given
the difficulty of securing good data from the local government and from existing
alternatives to high-priced options such as commercial satellite imagery.
RECOMMENDATIONS
The author would like to note that while ADVI is a composite index that can be
modified in situations of data deficiencies, how far it can be reduced and still remain
valid is unknown. Future studies on rADVI can therefore consider assessing on how
far it can be reduced and still maintain meaningful results. The possibility of
expanding ADVI beyond its current number of indicators to match the Philippine
setting also exists, and the author would recommend considering the positive effects
of groundwater and the negative effects of soil salinity in adaptive capacity, given the
two items’ relative uniqueness as a matter of concern for Filipino farmers working
near coastlines and not necessarily for the original ADVI study’s proponents.
The author would also like to recommend pursuing studies on using Landsat-
MODIS image fusion techniques such as STARFM (Gao, Masek, Schwaller, & Hall,
2006) to see if these fused images, being a compromise between Landsat’s high
spatial resolution and MODIS’s high temporal resolution, can yield better vulnerability
assessment.
The author would want to mention that the original intention of this study was
to produce a prototype of SICATA as outlined in the design schematic. The issue,
however, is that a well-established “baseline” reference information is needed (refer
to Fig.4.13), and in SICATA’s case this reference should be in the form of seasonal
ADVI maps with at least a decade’s worth of integrated data, particularly with NDVI
for the land sensitivity index. Given the need for a decent spatial resolution when
considering parcel-level outputs, Landsat 30-m imagery is still the best free option.
Future work on SICATA should therefore take into account NDVI derived from
Landsat imagery spanning at least a decade (including Landsat 7 or even Landsat 5
images), and the sheer magnitude of this processing step will require added hands
to be completed with intended results.
115
The author would also want to mention that there was also an intention to
include extreme flooding as a crucial component of SICATA, with the included
related literature on flooding adaptations as proof of this intent – but that the focus on
drought was brought about by the farmers’ greater concern to the absence of water
than the excess of it. Further studies on deriving an index similar to ADVI but
specifically catered to flooding must include analysis of a study area’s topography,
as it is one of the primary causes of floods.
The author would like to express the need to refine the Table of
Recommendations not only to extend its scope beyond Pitpitan’s boundaries but
also to take into account factors that are potentially crucial for growing crops
including, but not limited to, soil type and fertility, soil salinity, pest presence and
others. Furthermore, the acceptability, and eventual adoption, of these
recommendations calls for a separate study, with a primary focus on the social
aspect of such adoptions. It may also be interesting to see if ADVI’s component
indices can be used individually as determinants of recommendations to be issued.
When it comes to doing research to help farmers (and any marginalized
sector for that matter), the author would recommend allotting time for personal
communication with the end beneficiaries. They will not only become a wealth of
valuable information, but also will be more appreciative and receptive of new ideas
that will be shared to them.
And finally, the author would like, once again, to stress the importance of
accessibility to good quality and existing data from the government for academic
research. The need for data security is understandable, but once a researcher has
proven that his or her intent is purely for academic purposes and for beneficial
results, he or she should be provided with data in the form that he or she intended to
have in the first place. Such good quality information will not only reduce the
workload of the researcher, but will also produce more accurate results if the
research bears fruit.
116
PART VII: REFERENCES
117
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126
PART VIII: APPENDICES
127
Appendix A. The Table of Recommendations for Pitpitan’s Farmers
The table of recommendations is developed as a guide for farmers to help

them adapt to adverse climate situations such as dry spells or floods depending on
how their farm parcel is classified via its vulnerability using the Agricultural Drought
Vulnerability Index (ADVI). It is important to note that, due to the scope of this study,
the table’s contents were tailor-made for the Pitpitan setting, and farmers outside the
barangay boundaries were not consulted. Modifying the table to expand its scope
beyond Pitpitan is therefore desired when pursuing further studies on improving the
table, and given the willingness of the Bulacan Provincial Agricultural Office (Bulacan
PAO) to share insights it is possible to expand the table to encompass the entire
province.
It is also important to note that the table presented in this article is a working
prototype, that is, the categorization system has not been subjected to rigorous
testing and the accuracy of the listed recommendations is not guaranteed, and
therefore can be subject to refinement for better specification. The table did get an
assessment from the Bulacan PAO, and some of their recommendations and inputs
were considered among the contents.
The table is divided into seven major fields:
o The ADVI rating classifies a farm parcel into five categories, listed in
decreasing intensity: very highly vulnerable, highly vulnerable, vulnerable,
moderately vulnerable and less vulnerable. These ratings are based on the
original ADVI study in Andhra Pradesh (Murthy, Laxman, & Sesha Sai, 2015,
p. 167).
o Rainfall presence denotes the expected occurrence of rainfall for the
particular cropping season. If expected rainfall is higher than standard (i.e. a
typhoon occurring during the otherwise rainless irrigated season, or a La Niña
phenomenon affecting the rainfed season) then it will be classified as “high”,
otherwise it will be categorized as “low”.
o The rice planting season is categorized into the two as described by Pitpitan’s
farmers: transplanting during the rainfed season from August to January, and
direct seeding during the irrigation season from February to May.
o The descriptive situation category provides a nominal description of events
that farmers should expect after the assessment of values recorded in the first
128
three categories of the recommendations table. The descriptions should also
explain in non-technical terms the reason that the recommendations to be
issued is such.
o The recommended adaptive practices field takes into account techniques and
procedures that a farmer can consider when faced with an incoming adverse
climatic scenario. These practices are taken from scientific literature and
indigenous knowledge of both the local farming community and farming
communities from other countries, with the caveat of limiting the
recommendations to the Philippine setting (i.e. the planting of non-native
lotuses as crops during times of flooding).
o The field on recommended actions for rice provides ideas to farmers on what
rice variety they can use on their fields, or if they have to avoid rice for that
planting season in the first place.
o The field on recommended non-rice crops gives insights on plants that can be
co-cropped with, if not alternative to, rice. The recommended crops were
divided between the irrigated (Queensland Department of Agriculture and
Fisheries, 2014) (Catindig, 2015) (Carillo & Delos Santos, 2016) and the
rainfed (Wajih, 2008) (Catindig, 2015) seasons.
The contents of the table of recommendations for Pitpitan are outlined in the
succeeding pages of this appendix.
129
Rainfall Rice Planting Recommended Recommended Non-Rice Crops
ADVI Rating Presence Season Descriptive Situation Recommended Adaptive Practices Actions for Rice Lowland Highland
Rainfed Perform rainwater harvesting operations such as gutter water bamboo, guava, guyabano,
Transplant collection, till the soil using a rented returbator/multi-tiller Avoid rice swamp cabbage
mung beans, sponge gourds,
Very dry and compact soil, pumpkins, string beans,
rainwater runoff expected to eggplants, tomatoes,
Irrigated Direct be fast due to soil's slow Perform rainwater harvesting operations such as gutter water watermelons, sweet potatoes onions, parsley, shallots, string
High Seeding absorption of moisture collection, till the soil using a rented returbator/multi-tiller Avoid rice centrosema beans, eggplants
Rainfed
Table AA.1. Part 1 of the Table of Recommendations.
Transplant Till the soil using a rented returbator/multi-tiller Avoid rice bamboo, guava, guyabano
pumpkins, string beans,
Very poor soil water retention, eggplants, tomatoes,
Very Highly Irrigated Direct crop yield expected to be small watermelons, sweet potatoes, onions, parsley, shallots, string
Vulnerable Low Seeding due to small landowning area Till the soil using a rented returbator/multi-tiller, Avoid rice centrosema beans, eggplants
Rainfed Perform rainwater harvesting operations such as gutter water Use locally-stocked bamboo, guava, guyabano,
Transplant collection, till the soil using a rented returbator/multi-tiller rice varieties swamp cabbage
Dry and compact soil, rainwater pumpkins, string beans,
runoff expected to be fast due eggplants, tomatoes,
Irrigated Direct to soil's slow absorption of Perform rainwater harvesting operations such as gutter water Use locally-stocked watermelons, sweet potatoes, onions, parsley, shallots, string
High Seeding moisture collection, till the soil using a rented returbator/multi-tiller rice varieties centrosema beans, eggplants
Rainfed Till the soil using a rented returbator/multi-tiller, introduce
Transplant mulch on soils for enhanced moisture retention such as rice Avoid rice bamboo, guava, guyabano
pumpkins, string beans,
Poor soil water retention, crop Till the soil using a rented returbator/multi-tiller, introduce eggplants, tomatoes,
Irrigated Direct yield expected to be small due mulch on soils for enhanced moisture retention such as rice watermelons, sweet potatoes, onions, parsley, shallots, string
Highly Vulnerable Low Seeding to small landowning area stalks or bark chips Avoid rice centrosema beans, eggplants
Perform rainwater harvesting operations such as gutter water

Rainfed collection, lightly till the soil manually or with the help of a Use locally-stocked
Transplant carabao rice varieties bamboo, guava, guyabano
Moderate soil water retention,
crop yield expected to be Perform rainwater harvesting operations such as gutter water mung beans, sponge gourds, cabbages, carrots, cucumbers,
moderate due to moderate collection, introduce mulch on soils for enhanced moisture pumpkins, string beans, onions, parsley, potatoes,
Irrigated Direct landowning area, expect retention such as rice stalks or bark chips, lightly till the soil Use locally-stocked eggplants, tomatoes, radishes, shallots, sweet corn,
High Seeding flooding of fields manually or with the help of a carabao rice varieties watermelons, corn, centrosema zucchinis, string beans
Lightly till the soil manually or with the help of a carabao,
Rainfed introduce mulch on soils for enhanced moisture retention Use locally-stocked
Transplant such as rice stalks or bark chips rice varieties bamboo, guava, guyabano
Moderate soil water retention, mung beans, sponge gourds, cabbages, carrots, cucumbers,
crop yield expected to be Lightly till the soil manually or with the help of a carabao, pumpkins, string beans, onions, parsley, potatoes,
Irrigated Direct moderate due to moderate introduce mulch on soils for enhanced moisture retention Use locally-stocked eggplants, tomatoes, radishes, shallots, sweet corn,
Vulnerable Low Seeding landowning area such as rice stalks or bark chips rice varieties watermelons, corn, centrosema zucchinis, string beans
130
Rainfall Rice Planting Recommended Recommended Non-Rice Crops
ADVI Rating Presence Season Descriptive Situation Recommended Adaptive Practices Actions for Rice Lowland Highland
collection, create composting sites for rice stalks, plant cover Use submergence-
Rainfed Moderate soil water retention, crops (snow peas, mung beans, etc) to replenish nutrients resistant rice
Transplant crop yield expected to be good lost during the floods varieties bamboo, guava, guyabano
due to large landowning area, alfalfa, cabbages, carrots,
expect flooding of fields and mung beans, sponge gourds, cucumbers, onions, parsley,
Table AA.2. Part 2 of the Table of Recommendations.
soil erosion due to the already Use submergence- pumpkins, string beans, potatoes, radishes, shallots,
Irrigated Direct present soil moisture and thus Perform rainwater harvesting operations such as gutter water resistant rice eggplants, tomatoes, sweet corn, zucchinis, string
High Seeding less ability to absorb more collection, create composting sites for rice stalks varieties watermelons, corn beans, centrosema
Can make use of
high-yield rice
varieties, but using
drought-resistant
Rainfed Introduce mulch on soils for enhanced moisture retention varieties is a safe
Transplant such as rice stalks or bark chips measure bamboo, guava, guyabano
Can make use of
high-yield rice alfalfa, cabbages, carrots,
varieties, but using mung beans, sponge gourds, cucumbers, onions, parsley,
Moderate soil water retention, drought-resistant pumpkins, string beans, potatoes, radishes, shallots,
Moderately Irrigated Direct crop yield expected to be good varieties is a safe eggplants, tomatoes, sweet corn, zucchinis, string
Vulnerable Low Seeding due to large landowning area Make use of traditional techniques measure watermelons, corn beans
collection, create composting sites for rice stalks, plant cover Use submergence-
Rainfed crops (snow peas, mung beans, etc) to replenish nutrients resistant rice
Transplant lost during the floods varieties bamboo, guava, guyabano
Good soil water retention, crop

yield expected to be good due
to large landowning area, alfalfa, cabbages, carrots,
expect flooding of fields and mung beans, sponge gourds, cucumbers, onions, parsley,
soil erosion due to the already Use submergence- pumpkins, string beans, potatoes, radishes, shallots,
Irrigated Direct present soil moisture and thus Perform rainwater harvesting operations such as gutter water resistant rice eggplants, tomatoes, sweet corn, zucchinis, string
High Seeding less ability to absorb more collection, create composting sites for rice stalks varieties watermelons, corn beans
Rainfed Introduce mulch on soils for enhanced moisture retention Use high-yield rice
Transplant such as rice stalks or bark chips varieties bamboo, guava, guyabano
alfalfa, cabbages, carrots,
mung beans, sponge gourds, cucumbers, onions, parsley,
Good soil water retention, crop pumpkins, string beans, potatoes, radishes, shallots,
Irrigated Direct yield expected to be good due Use high-yield rice eggplants, tomatoes, sweet corn, zucchinis, string
Less Vulnerable Low Seeding to large landowning area Make use of traditional techniques varieties watermelons, corn beans
131
Appendix B. Comparison of Methodologies for Drought Vulnerability
Listed in the table below are some of the researched methodologies

mentioned in the Related Literature section, their features, advantages and
disadvantages in the context of agricultural vulnerability assessment. While the
study’s author made use of ADVI as it was judged to be the most suitable
methodology to use for the study area, this does not imply in any way that it is in any
way superior to other indices. Thus the author hopes that the table will serve as a
guide for future researchers on choosing the most appropriate index for their own
pursuits.
Index Features Advantages Disadvantages
ESI ESI is an indicator of - Datasets for - Lacks analysis on
(Anderson, et agricultural drought calculating ESI irrigation support,
al., 2016) that describes (MODIS ET) and which is a crucial
anomalies in the validation (MODIS item for agricultural
actual/reference LAI and TRMM vulnerability
evapotranspiration (ET) precipitation) are analysis (Carillo &
ratio, retrieved using free and available Delos Santos,
remotely sensed inputs 2016)
of land surface - Soil analysis, which
temperature is equally important
(LST) and leaf area (C. Catindig,
index (LAI) personal
communication,
June 11, 2016), is
not included
- No adaptive
capacity
component
Integrated SPI is an index - Non-intensive data - Lacks analysis on
SPI, TRMM characterizing requirements as irrigation support,
rainfall and meteorological drought SPI only requires which is a crucial
MODIS NDVI on a range of time time-series item for agricultural
(Yaduvanshi, scales, allowing the precipitation data vulnerability
Srivastava, & provision of drought - Validation data analysis (Carillo &
132
Pandey, magnitude, duration (TRMM rainfall and Delos Santos,
2015) and spatial extent; in MODIS NDVI) is 2016)
the cited study’s case, readily available - Soil analysis, which
SPI was combined with - The study also is equally important
drought hazard maps included (C. Catindig,
created with MODIS socioeconomic personal
NDVI and TRMM factors such as communication,
rainfall, and with a literacy, gender, June 11, 2016), is
socioeconomic population density, not included
vulnerability map to and agricultural
generate a drought risk workforce
map
SPI and VCI VCI is an index aimed - Mathematically - Lacks analysis on
(Dutta, et al., at comparing the NDVI simple, and NDVI irrigation support,
2015) of a desired period to datasets (MODIS or which is a crucial
the range of NDVI NOAA-AVHRR) are item for agricultural
values of the same readily available vulnerability
period in previous - The use of NDVI analysis (Carillo &
years allows direct Delos Santos,
assessment of 2016)
historical and - Soil analysis, which
current agricultural is equally important
conditions (C. Catindig,
- Allows for trend personal
analysis due to its communication,
time-series June 11, 2016), is
characteristic not included
- No adaptive
capacity
component
CDI (Vyas, et CDI is a relatively new - System is specially - The computation
al., 2015) index that integrates catered to its local methodology
geostationary satellite Indian setting, (Vyas, et al., 2015,
information on rainfall making it highly p. 32) is largely
and NDVI to assess appropriate to use catered to Indian
agricultural drought in its study area satellite
133
- The use of NDVI information, and is
allows direct untested when
assessment of using other
historical and datasets
current agricultural - Lacks analysis on
conditions irrigation support,
which is a crucial
item for agricultural
vulnerability
analysis (Carillo &
Delos Santos,
2016)
- Soil analysis, which
is equally important
(C. Catindig,
personal
communication,
June 11, 2016), is
not included
- No adaptive
capacity
component
HMM HMM, a probabilistic - Crop water stress is - Requires good
(Ramadas & machine learning tool, defined as a understanding of
Govindaraju, was used to model function of soil machine learning
2015) probabilistic drought moisture, taking - Highly dependent
states using crop water into account the on programming
stress need for soil - Mathematically
analysis and complex
irrigation support - No direct
- Being a machine assessment of
learning model, it historical and
can be used as a current agricultural
prediction tool of conditions (which
future scenarios can be achieved
via NDVI)
134
- No adaptive
capacity
component
ADVI ADVI is a relatively - Flexible and - As it is a relatively
(Murthy, new composite index modifiable (allows new index it is
Laxman, & that integrates analysis for removal and largely untested
Sesha Sai, of exposure (via hydro- inclusion of new - Hard to test and
2015) meteorological indicators) due to validate
analysis), sensitivity its deliberate - Data-intensive and
(via NDVI), and requirement of computationally
adaptive capacity (via weights generation repetitive
soil profiling, irrigation - The use of NDVI - Current ADVI may
support and allows direct be oversimplifying
socioeconomic assessment of the socioeconomic
considerations) historical and indicator in its
current agricultural adaptive capacity
conditions component
- Adaptive capacity is - Can be too
deliberately complex by
included as a including
composing index unnecessary
- Soil profiling and indicators
irrigation support is
included in
vulnerability
analysis
DRI (Kim, DRI is a composite - Composite indices - No direct
Park, Yoo, & index of hydro- are specialized, assessment of
Kim, 2015) meteorology-based with hazard historical and
drought hazard and assessment being current agricultural
socioeconomically- exclusively hydro- conditions (which
based drought meteorological and can be achieved
vulnerability vulnerability via NDVI)
assessment - Soil analysis, which
containing is important (C.
socioeconomic Catindig, personal
135
indicators, in effect communication,
simplifying the June 11, 2016), is
concepts not included
- Computationally
intensive
136
Appendix C. Transcriptions in English of audio recordings of different
interviews made in the pursuit of the study
The following items are transcriptions in English of three different audio recordings of
focus group discussions that this study’s author had made in pursuit of knowledge
necessary for the progress of the thesis.
As the interviews were conducted with a trust on confidentiality, this study’s author
reserves the right to control the dissemination of these recordings to prevent
unintended listeners from using them for malicious gains especially on unrelated
items not transcribed in this appendix. Requests can be made for access to digital
copies of these recordings strictly for academic pursuits and content validation
purposes only, and the said copies should be completely destroyed once their
purpose is expended.
Transcription in English of Notable Proceedings from the Audio Recording of a

Focus Group Discussion with Pitpitan Farmers on Climate Adaptation
Practices (28 June 2015)
(0:00:00 to 0:02:00) Introduction of the purpose of the group discussion
- The interviewer explained to the farmers the idea that some related
methodologies emphasize that farmers may possess indigenous knowledge
that can help them cope with adverse climate effects
- Farmers are aware of the occurrence of climate change
- Scientists provide a lot of possible adaptation recommendations, but are not
doing the farming themselves
(0:02:00 to 0:03:40) Discussions on government support
- Farmers are affected by a palakasan (“political favoritism”) system when it

comes to prioritization of government aid
- Personnel from the NFA do not give visits to their farms
- Fertilizers are not being released from warehouses
(0:03:40 to 0:07:00) Discussions on sources of rice seeds
- Farmers keep their own seeds from previous harvests, while government-
issued seeds happen to be expensive
- The interviewer explained that seeds coming from Pitpitan will produce plants
that are well-adapted to the conditions of Pitpitan, unlike seeds coming from
other provinces such as Isabela and Mindoro
- Farmers mix seeds from different sites before distribution for growing, a
practice provided by a seminar held by the Department of Agriculture
137
- Farmers emphasized that, for efficiency purposes, the height of plants should
be consistent per farm area (i.e. consistently high rice grasses in one area,
consistently low rice grasses in another)
(0:07:00 to 0:09:00) Discussions on crop diversification practices
- Farmers plant mung beans and string beans along the paddy mounds (pilapil)
- Maize takes a lot of toll from soil fertility and is not grown in Pitpitan
- Some plant eggplants, bitter gourds and tomatoes, but those are planted in
dedicated vegetable gardens because they are intolerant to herbicides used
in rice planting
- Pitpitan’s farmers purchase and use herbicide for pest control
(0:09:00 to 0:11:50) Discussions on rice growing timeline and farming practices
during the dry season
- Farmers make use of 90-day and 120-day rice varieties

- Rice typing (sinandomeng, etc.) is being done at the rice mills
- In times of drought, farmers prefer to work on odd jobs since the soil is saline
and is unusable
- Some farmers have fisheries to take advantage of the area’s proximity to the
sea (in the form of Manila Bay)
(0:11:50 to 0:13:30) Discussions on harvest pricing
- Market dealers, especially the middlemen, are the ones who command the
pricing of the farmers’ produce, and they normally purchase goods at very low
rates and then sell them at much higher prices in the marketplace
- In theory, farmers should be the ones commanding the price, but due to the
need to dispose of their produce as soon as possible and due to daily
hardships they are forced to give in to the merchantmen’s pressure
- Dealers are also picky when it comes to produce quality – in effect, low quality
goods end up with the farmers themselves
(0:13:30 to 0:16:50) Discussions on farming practices during the rainy season
- During flooding events, rice can survive submergence as long as a portion of

the plant stays above the flood
- Farmers did not indicate any particular change in farming patterns during the
rainy season, except for the planting of mung beans and string beans
mentioned earlier
- Although fruit-bearing trees can serve as windbreaks against storm winds,
according to farmers, growing trees on paddy fields actually have detrimental
effects to rice cropping as the shade coming from these trees prevent crops
from obtaining necessary sunshine – it would therefore be better to convert
the paddy into a fruit orchard
- There are incidences of petty theft of non-rice crops planted by farmers by
“hardworking individuals” and, more notably, by children
138
- Farmers claim that as the cost of materials necessary to grow crops
increases, the cost of the resulting produce decreases due to competition
pressures brought about by the entry of foreign products via the free market
(0:16:50 to 0:18:30) Discussions on the issue of agricultural land conversion
- The farmers mentioned an instance where a mango plantation failed due to

an outbreak of crop disease and was transformed into a residential
subdivision
- A prime agricultural land in a nearby barangay was converted into a
residential subdivision, which would have been unlawful had not the
developers obtained political favour
- Some farmers would rather sell their lands than continue their practice and
eventually fall into a heavy debt due to the unprofitability of rice cropping in
the Philippine lowlands – a rather peculiar phenomenon, given the case of
wealthy highland farmers and farmers in other countries
(0:18:30 to 0:43:28) Snack break and unrelated discussions
(0:43:28 to 0:47:25) Discussions on a possible computerized system for adaptive

practices
- Farmers are not expected to know, or have time to know, the usage of the
personal computer and the Internet, and are somehow more confident with a
cellular phone application
- The interviewer noted that that the challenge of balancing interactivity with
farmers’ technical capabilities in the system’s design will ultimately lie on the
academe
- Farmers are still more concerned with the lack of support from the
government over other issues
(0:47:25 to 0:52:42) More discussions on government support
- According to the farmers, the best support that the government can provide to
the agricultural sector is in the form of abundant sources of irrigation, implying
the need for a new dam for irrigation purposes – which can mean being able
to produce rice up to thrice a year instead of the usual twice
- The interviewer explained to the farmers that not all areas are suitable for
dam-building, as reflected in a study presented at a GE students’ colloquium
on a dam site suitability analysis for Zamboanga, but that a dam site suitability
analysis for Bulacan is not yet performed
- There are no retention ponds in Pitpitan, but farmers noted that other places
they know of do have such
- Ever since the Metropolitan Water and Sewerage System (MWSS) was
established, water from the Angat Dam was prioritized to Metro Manila – and
in case of supply excesses during the rainy season, the activity of draining the
dam eventually results into flooding of agricultural areas
(0:52:42 to 0:57:40) Discussions on agricultural waste
139
- Some farmers reuse the rice stalks as fertilizer, but the effort needed to do so
make others simply burn the waste products
- The interviewer explained to the farmers that according to Pope Francis’s
Laudato Si, while the natural environment is a good example of an efficient
system due to the recycling of natural waste into nutrients for plants, humans
exhibit a “throwaway” culture where waste are not recycled and are merely
disposed of and left as they are
- Farmers noted that there was once a government-sponsored program that
discouraged waste burning and encouraged burying the rice stalks into the
ground as natural fertilizer, but that the program ultimately failed because rice
stalks, without fertilizer supplementation to encourage faster decay, were
carried away by floodwaters
- The interviewer cited practices of composting wastes in a dedicated area
(such as vermiculture, the utilization of earthworms), but farmers noted that
water is still needed in the process
(0:57:40 to 0:58:51) Short snack break and unrelated discussions
(0:58:51 to 1:05:47) More discussions on government support
- Farmers expressed their desire to have communication with high-ranking

agriculture officials so that they can express their dilemmas
- There was a time when government support suddenly rushed in as a
consequence of the Pork Barrel Scam revelations, but entitlement required a
paid membership to a questionable local farmers’ cooperative
- Eventually, once the fire on Pork Barrel Scam cooled down, the farmers’
situation went back to how it was: government support is still lacking
- Farmers reiterated the cases of some of their colleagues opting to sell their
lands for subdivision conversion
- Farmers claimed, despite the Philippines actually achieving high rice yield
output, importation is being done because they are much cheaper (albeit of
questionable quality) and are sold in the domestic market, while rice from the
Philippines is being sold as top-quality and expensive produce, ultimately
benefiting merchantmen
- The interviewer noted that in other countries such as the United States,
farmers are wealthy and are being held in high regard – to the extent that they
do not care if someone forced to work in their fields boast their backgrounds
and can still bark orders to them
- Farmers noted that in Japan, their farmers are among the wealthiest people
(1:05:47 to 1:17:30) Final messages
- Farmers reiterated the need for ample water supply first and foremost so that
continued crop production can be ensured
- Farmers expressed their intent to take advantage of the latest developments
in rice hybridization that can help them grow crops in the absence or scarcity
of water and in saline conditions
140
- Farmers expressed the need for government support to the agricultural
industry, in particular the easing of the bureaucracy in the release of fertilizers
and seeds

Group Discussion with the Bulacan Provincial Agriculture Office on the
Validity of the ADVI Study (07 March 2016)
(00:00 to 06:00) Presentation of research methodology and ADVI output
- The interviewer presented to the PAO officials the documentation on the

thesis’s methodology, results and conclusions, giving focus on the data used
and the steps performed to come up with the output
- The interviewer showed the output parcel map containing ADVI
categorizations for Pitpitan’s cropping season from February to May and
explained its purpose
(06:00 to 15:52) Discussions on the study methodology and the critiquing of contents
of the Table of Recommendations
- The officials pointed out that Pitpitan’s cropping pattern is “off-season”, that is,
its farmers do not synchronize their planting patterns with the general
peasantry of Bulacan
- The interviewer pointed out the development of a Table of Recommendations
that is to be used together with the ADVI methodology, but that its contents
may not be suitable due to individual cropping needs
- The officials mentioned the possible existence of a study on crop suitability
analysis for the Pitpitan area, such that soil type and climate, two of the most
common considerations to observe when it comes to determining crop
suitability, are possibly taken into account (e.g. onions require loose soil)
- The officials confirmed that mung beans, sponge gourds, pumpkins, string
beans, eggplants and tomatoes are, among lowland vegetables, are possibly
suitable for Pitpitan in a dry climate
- Watermelons are known crops in Baliuag and Plaridel
- Sweet potatoes are also possible dry season crops, although they are planted
in marginal areas since they do not command a high price as compared to
other crops
- The officials noted the inclusion in Table of Recommendations of the situation
of a highly vulnerable area experiencing high rainfall presence, and the
interviewer explained that on such conditions such an area is likely to have
compact soils that will not easily absorb water, and so hardy crops such as
bamboo and guava are likely crop supplements especially along riverbanks
141
- The officials noted that soursop (guyabano) and hardy fruit-bearing trees can
also be viable crops during the rainfed season; papayas and other “soft” trees,
on the other hand, are more likely to be damaged by floods
- The officials also observed that there are items listed of recommended non-
rice crops for areas with less vulnerable ratings that are still unsuitable,
pointing out some of them are suited only for upland farming
- The interviewer explained that the inclusion of alfalfa in the list is on the
observation that the crop is to be used for forage by farmers who might try
adopting livestock as farm income supplementation
- The officials replied that there are better forage crops such as centrosema
that can handle very hot climates, but that farmers do not receive the idea
very well because the plants are foreign and because they are not into
livestock production
(15μ52 to 17μ0λ) Discussions on Bulacan PAO’s vegetable program
- Bulacan PAO promotes a vegetable growing program for farmers, but the idea
was met with intense resistance due to the high labor requirements of growing
vegetables, to the point that some require daily attention
- The officials explained that farmers prefer rice as it only needs several days of
attention from sowing to harvest
- The interviewer pointed out that one of the ideas the study plans to promote is
crop diversification, and this will include the planting of vegetables
(17:09 to 21:52) Additional discussions on critiquing the contents of the Table of
Recommendations
- The officials commented that the chop suey vegetables (cauliflower, carrots,
Baguio beans, cabbage, etc.) are not suited for lowland farming, although
programs for growing these vegetables are being implemented in the upland
Districts 2 and 3 of the province
- The interviewer emphasized that the items listed in the table are
recommendations and are not to be strictly enforced
- The officials expressed their appreciation to the effort of giving farmers the
chance to pursue alternatives given the recurring adverse situations of their
farms
- The officials affirmed the technique on using mulch to trap soil moisture
- The interviewer noted the idea of farmers renting a multi-tiller to prepare their
lands for an incoming drought as an adaptive measure, to which the officials
replied that in terms of the economics of scale, given the cost and complexity
of the system, using the equipment to work on small farm holdings will result
to bigger losses
- The officials revealed that around five units of the more economical hand
tractors are supposedly provided by the provincial government to the
municipality of Bulakan for farmland use
(21:52 to 27:58) Discussions on farmer resistance to alternatives
142
- The officials explained that traditional rice farmers have a high resistance
against suggested alternatives, such as in the case of the municipality of
Bocaue where corn is being suggested as an alternative crop given its
“irrigation tail-end” situation, and yet the program does not take off, even if it is
a recurring problem
- The officials insist that local government units should promote the use of
alternatives to rice on agricultural areas with chronic problems when growing
rice
- In the case of Bulakan, the officials attempted to start a vegetable growing
project, but it was ultimately unsuccessful; in Malolos, on the other hand, the
vegetable project was successful
- The officials pointed out that farmers’ attitudes are the primary cause of the
failure of vegetable growing projects, and non-prioritization by LGU’s make
the situation worse
- The official pointed that rice is a “lazy man’s crop” since it only requires
periodic attention and care, unlike vegetables which demands time and effort
- The officials noted that farmers should look at the examples of the
municipalities of San Rafael, San Ildefonso and San Miguel, where farmers
became rich due to growing vegetables
- The officials mentioned Baliwag as having abundant irrigation supply, but crop
diversification is not practiced
- The officials pointed out that one of the advantages of vegetables over rice is
that the former can yield multiple harvests within the months-long single-
harvest season of the latter, and that industrious farmers can reap the
benefits of vegetable farming on a weekly basis given the province’s high
accessibility to Metro Manila and local markets
- The officials noted that while the high perishability of vegetables may be a
disadvantage as against rice, the high demand for vegetables on the other
hand will allow farmers to dispose their produce quickly
- The interviewer recalled a teaching in Economics regarding highly perishable
items being valued and sought after by consumers whereas stable items are
not valued highly due to their continuing presence
- The officials claimed that rice is a political commodity
(27:58 to 35:27) Discussions on output validation
- The interviewer noted to the officials the difference in scale between the
original Andhra Pradesh study and the thesis, with the former being applied at
the mandal (equivalent to municipal) level and the latter on a farm parcel
(smaller than a barangay) level
- The interviewer also explained that the validation process done by the original
ADVI study involved assessing crop yield variability, with areas of higher
vulnerability having more variable crop yield than others – to which the
officials concurred as logical
- The officials questioned the absence of irrigation support as an indicator of
vulnerability as it is a vital item for sustaining agricultural activities, to which
143
the interviewer replied that the National Irrigation Administration (NIA) was
unable to provide such irrigation maps
- The interviewer pointed out that one of ADVI’s assessed features is the ability
to set aside indicators that are unusable and that a validation procedure is
needed to verify the output from this reduction procedure
- The interviewer expounded on ADVI’s adaptive capacity component, pointing
out its indicators being soil type for water holding capacity, irrigation support,
and size of farm parcels as a simplified socioeconomic metric
- The officials pointed out to the interviewer that NIA should possess service
area maps and lateral canal maps that can serve as alternatives to an
irrigation map, to which the interviewer noted that the thesis adviser was also
questioning the setting aside of irrigation support as an indicator
- The interviewer explained the derivation of indicators for ADVI’s exposure
index by using rainfall data in the Philippine Food Security Information System
(PhilFSIS) website, whereas for the sensitivity index satellite imagery was
used
- The interviewer made a realization that the best persons to validate the output
map is going to be the farmers themselves
(35:27 to 37:28) Additional discussions on critiquing the contents of the Table of
Recommendations
- The officials commented that farmers would prefer growing crops that they
themselves can consume as against forage crops such as alfalfa
- The officials stressed the importance of crop diversification as a means for
farmers to grow, mentioning its relatively small space requirements that can
be as small as 500 square meters – to which the interviewer replied that it is
indeed one of the recommendations that has to get through
- The officials also stressed that, besides weather and climate, soil profiling and
analysis is important for knowing the suitability as well as the quality of crops
to grow, citing the example of Baguio-grown bell peppers being superior in
taste compared to Cavite- and Bulacan-grown bell peppers, to which the
interviewer replied that detailed soil profiling is a limitation of the study
(37:28 to 44:54) Other matters
- The officials expressed their appreciation for the interviewer’s attempts to

develop a systematic way of issuing recommendations based on vulnerability,
and that they themselves are learning something from the exercise
- The officials also noted that there are issues with the vulnerability assessment
methods on the part of the Department of Agriculture, and that the
interviewer’s pursuit may provide a better alternative to what is being done –
to the point that the officials may want the methodology implemented
province-wide
- The officials noted that while flood-related maps for the province are well-
established, drought- and El Niño-related maps are still on the resource
plotting phase
144
- In the case of generating good rainfall information for future applications of
ADVI, funding can be requested from the Bureau of Agricultural Research
(BAR) via a project proposal and pilot areas
- The interviewee explained to the officials how to interpret the Weatherspark
rainfall chance graph to come up with an estimate of the number of rainy days
per month
- The officials noted the installation of new rain gauges around the province,
and the interviewer replied that data from these gauges, if made available, are
going to produce better quality analyses due to the differences in rainfall being
received around the province
- The officials noted that vulnerability assessment should be supported by
sound analysis and reasoning, as farmers will naturally question their
inclusion or exclusion from vulnerability categorizations
- The officials claimed that overall the study is good since it tries to assess
vulnerabilities scientifically and at the same time provide recommended
actions to counteract these vulnerabilities, giving it a potential for decision
support and decision making
- The officials noted that policy-wise, it is easier for the provincial government
than the municipal governments to influential agricultural activities as the
former can control the allocation of resources away from underperforming
assets to more productive ones while the latter would have to be considerate
to their people

Focus Group Discussion with Pitpitan Farmers on the Validity of the ADVI
Study (7 March 2016)
(00:00 to 03:12) Discussions on the blank farm parcel map
- The interviewer showed a blank parcel map to Pitpitan’s farmers and gave
explanations on what it depicts
- The interviewer asked the farmers to point out the parcels where they
normally experience better crop yields during a harvest season
- The farmers claimed that parcels at the northern areas of Pitpitan (the
Lambon area) experience better crop yields because they are better elevated,
have better soil characteristics and have better access to irrigation from the
Angat Dam
- The farmers pointed out that the southerly parcels experience worse
conditions due to the saline soil
- In addition, the farmers noted that they did not use the land at the south to
grow crops during the El Niño months because any crop will not survive a
saline soil in a dry spell
(03:12 to 06:00) Discussions on the ADVI-categorized farm parcel map
- The interviewer showed to the farmers the parcel map containing ADVI
categorizations for the cropping season from February to May and explained
145
that their claims on the southerly regions being less hospitable to agriculture
were indeed reflected in the output using scientific and remotely sensed data
- The farmers expressed their surprise that their claims were validated by a
map that was produced without an actual field activity
- The interviewer explained to the farmers that the previous exercise on the
blank parcel map was done as a sort of “blind test” to see if they can identify
areas with yield problems without the aid of a categorized map
- The interviewer noted that the study had not considered saltwater intrusion as
a factor in the analysis
- The farmers noted that the southerly parcels experience different hindrances
for the irrigated and the rainfed cropping seasons: dry cracked saline soil is
experienced during the irrigated season especially in times of absence of
irrigation, while extreme flooding and subsequent saltwater intrusion from the
Manila Bay occurs during the rainfed season
(06:00 to 11:30) Discussions on crop suitability in the Table of Recommendations
- The interviewer told the farmers about the visit to the Bulacan Provincial
Agriculture Office (Bulacan PAO) for assessing the contents of the Table of
Recommendations, in particular the aptness of recommended crops during
adverse climate situations
- Farmers verified Bulacan PAO’s critique that the chop suey vegetables
(cabbage, carrots, cauliflower, etc.) are unsuitable for farming in Bulacan, as
these vegetables are better grown at the highlands
- Farmers pointed out that vegetables are unsuitable in the salt-contaminated
plains and expressed their desire to know and try salinity-resistant crops –
and that the salinity issue is so dominant that salt crystals form when the
ground is very dry, giving whitish discolorations
- Farmers confirmed that in the past they plant watermelons as an additional
source of revenue during the dry season, but that at present such activities
are rare due to a crop disease that targets watermelons
- When it comes to coconuts, farmers claim that the trees can survive saline
conditions but will not yield fruit
(11:30 to 14:08) More discussions on the ADVI-categorized farm parcel map
- Farmers reiterated their interest in the ADVI map due to its ability to depict a
farmland’s cropping situation
- The interviewer explained that the original study came from India and is
designed to aid farmers in assessing climatic vulnerability, with areas of
higher vulnerability to be given more attention
- The interviewer provided a disclaimer that the developed ADVI methodology
is meant to be used as a tool for guidance for knowing the things that need to
be done to be able to cope, but that the eventual provision of
recommendations would fall on cropping experts such as agriculturists
(14:08 to 15:55) Discussions on alternative farmer activities in times of drought
146
- Farmers verified Bulacan PAO’s assessment that the reason most farmers do
not engage in vegetable planting due to the high labor cost needed
- Farmers claimed that while vegetable growers at the northerly regions of
Luzon did become wealthy, the land on the other hand is not suitable for rice
growing and that problems on water supply is also present
(15:55 to 18:32) More discussions on crop suitability in the Table of
Recommendations
- The interviewer explained that most of the crops listed at the Table of
Recommendations were researched from Australian sources, and that some
of them are less likely to be suitable given the differences in climate between
Australia and the Philippines
- Farmers noted that they can grow sponge gourds, string beans and cassava
along the paddy mounds while creeping plants such as sweet potatoes are
planted along the roadside, but again they emphasized the need for water
- Farmers mentioned the capability of growing kangkong in waterlogged areas
during the rainy season, as long as they are separately grown from rice
(18:32 to 20:23) More discussions on the ADVI-categorized farm parcel map
- The interviewer explained that the methodology can be extended to other

places but that the current study was limited to Pitpitan as a pilot area
- Farmers claimed that their fellowmen at the municipality of Plaridel are in a
much better condition since they can grow virtually any suitable crop on their
lands
(20:23 to 23:25) Discussions on government support
- The interviewer asked the farmers if support from the government became
more prevalent since the previous group discussion (held 28 June 2015),
primarily for election purposes
- The farmers responded that the elected officials suddenly became too heart-
warming to the point that the idea scares them, but the actual delivery of
service was as inefficient as it had always been
- Farmers reiterated their desire to be able to send their concerns to high-
ranking officials in agriculture
(23:25 to 24:12) Unrelated discussions
(24:12 to 31:35) Other matters
- The interviewer attempted to provide the farmers with an idea on how the
ADVI map was made by citing data sources
- Farmers claimed that their less fortunate fellows hold up to a hectare of
farmland to grow, and that most of them resort to odd jobs such as
construction work to supplement their income
- The interviewer mentioned a time-lapse video of a rice strain developed by
IRRI that can survive up to fifteen days of submergence, of which farmers
might be able to take advantage of
147
- The interviewer mentioned the controversy on Golden Rice, and farmers
mentioned varieties of naturally-colored rice
- The interviewer also mentioned the alternate wetting and drying (AWD)
technique for water management, but the farmers were not very receptive of
the idea
148
Appendix C. Calculating Percentage of Soil Type and Irrigation Support for
Each Land Parcel in QGIS 2.10
After obtaining information on soil type and irrigation support, it is important to
transfer this information to the primary land parcel shapefile. This will entail making
use of overlay analysis in a GIS. This section will quickly illustrate how this is done in
QGIS 2.10*.
a) First, information on a parcel’s land area is needed. This is done by opening
the shapefile’s attribute table then opening the field calculator. Once opened,
provide a name for the new field column and set the field output to “Decimal
number (real)”. Then under the Functions list, open the Geometry dropdown
list and select “$area”. Click on the “OK” button once this is accomplished.
b) If good irrigation and soil maps with multiple features are available, merge the
multiple features into a single multipart feature using the function “Vector >
Geometry > Singleparts to Multipart…” and selecting the unique classifying
field as the unique ID field.
*
Refer to http://gis.stackexchange.com/questions/65956/percentage-of-polygon-in-one-shapefile-within-
polygon-of-another as an alternative guide. Note that the instructions given are subject to change, depending
on the QGIS version used.
149
c) Intersect the parcel shapefile with the multipart features via “Vector >
Geoprocessing Tools > Intersect…” and use a filename that will help indicate
its being temporary information. The resulting layer will be parts of the parcels
overlapping the multipart features layer.
d) Create a new field containing the calculated area of the intersected features
using the field calculator, then create another field that will store area
percentage by dividing the intersected area with the original area and then
multiplying by 100.
e) Perform the necessary calculations to translate this percentage into weighted
values using the field calculator. For example, parcels with mixed soil types
have different water holding capacity values compared to parcels with a single
soil type.
150
f) Export the temporary shapefile’s attribute table in comma-separated variable
(.csv) format, then open the resulting file in a spreadsheet software. Using
151
data pilots or pivot tables (depending on the spreadsheet software used *) sum
up concerned values of rows with similar ID’s and remove the duplicated rows
accordingly. Combine the resulting summed fields in a single spreadsheet and
save it as a .csv file.
g) Join the resulting summed table with the parcel shapefiles using the unique
parcel ID’s as join attribute layer (you may have to download the “mmqgis”
plugin† to do so).
*
Refer to the following links on how to perform row summations in the following spreadsheet software:
OpenOffice Calc: http://www.activitydata.org/How_to_Pivot_data_in_Open_Office_Spreads.html
Microsoft Excel: http://press.emerson.edu/itbits/2013/01/04/excel-identify-duplicates-and-sum-
corresponding-values-with-a-pivot-table/
†
Home page of the mmqgis plugin: http://michaelminn.com/linux/mmqgis/
152
Appendix D. Expanded Methodologies for Obtaining ADVI Indicators Set Aside
or Not Included in This Study
▪ Exposure Index: Non-constant EI Map

A limitation of this study is the reliance on a single rain gauge data for the
study area, thus the EI map is limited only to a single value all throughout the
farm parcels – indicating that the rainfall situation is constant for Pitpitan.
The best practice, of course, is to use multiple rain gauges within and
around the study area, derive their corresponding mean, CV and DF values and
finally generating a gradient map via interpolation. The provincial-level scale of
the current rain gauge infrastructure available to PAGASA may render barangay-
level rainfall distribution differences minimal, however, and so a variable EI map
is plausible only if either localized rain gauges are installed, or the scale of future
ADVI studies is at the very least at the per-municipal level.
▪ Sensitivity Index: SMN and SIN Drought Frequency

To obtain standardized Z-scores of SMN and SIN are first obtained using
the formula inspired from standardized vegetation index (Murthy, Laxman, &
Sesha Sai, 2015, p. 166) (Peters, et al., 2002, p. 72):
� − ̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅�
= , , � .,
�
− ̅
= , � � ℎ �
�
where:
zijk = z-score for pixel i during week j for year k
xijk = weekly SIN/SMN value for pixel i during week j for year k
xij = mean SIN/SMN value for pixel i during week j over n years
σij = standard deviation of pixel i during week j over n years

After obtaining the z-scores, the number of years with zijk < 0.25 over n
years are counted as m, and then drought frequency is finally calculated using
the ratio = ⁄ .
153
▪ Sensitivity Index: Crop Variations
Pitpitan’s farming community does not practice crop diversification and
only rely on rice cultivation, therefore there was no need for assessing the effects
of crop variability on an individual farmer’s vulnerability rating. But in places
where farmers do practice crop diversification, assessing the effects of crop
variations to vulnerability entails good knowledge of crop vigor to differing climatic
situations.
The list of recommended non-rice crops in the published Table of
Recommendations can provide a starting point for determining crop vigor, with
recommended crops for high vulnerability rankings having better contributing
weights than those limited to lower vulnerability rankings. Further expansions to
the table will yield a better list of suitable crops and thus better assessment of
crop vigor. But it must be noted that vigor-based comparisons between crops of
the same rankings are not considered, and that a seasoned agriculturist’s opinion
is needed to bridge this gap.
▪ Adaptive Capacity Index: Groundwater-based Irrigation Support

The original ADVI study made use of an irrigation map as an indicator of
adaptive capacity, but it also mentioned the original desire to assess the effects
of groundwater presence had they gained access to good datasets (Murthy,
Laxman, & Sesha Sai, 2015, p. 167). Processing a digital gradient map of
groundwater levels can provide a good insight of the adaptive situation of
farmlands.
▪ Adaptive Capacity Index: Soil Salinity

An interesting finding in this study is the adverse effects of soil salinity to
agricultural adaptive capacity. In general, the higher the salinity levels of a farm
parcel, the more vulnerable the farmer is. The tricky part on this matter is on
determining the extent of salt contamination over a farming area, of which
additional knowledge of remote sensing might be able to help. Knowing the
proper band combinations for creating a false color composite image specifically
tailored to salinity can greatly aid in assessing this vulnerability indicator.
154
Notes on this post-publication release: This version of the Masters’ Thesis
manuscript aims to correct some of the typographical errors the author discovered
whenever there are available times for re-reading (see p. 80 in the earlier version for
an example). This action is in accordance with the author’s desire for correctness of
information being presented in this document.
Should you, the reader, discover other typographical errors the author might have
missed, you are free to send an e-mail at jhsempio@up.edu.ph as a means of
informing the author.
For God, Honor and Country
155

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University of the Philippines

Master of Science in Geomatics Engineering - Geoinformatics

Julius Noah H. Sempio

Rhodora M. Gonzalez, Ph.D.

Leorey O. Marquez, Ph.D.

Ariel C. Blanco, Ph.D.; Mark Edwin A. Tupas, M.S.

Mary Rose O. Mabalay, M.S.

December 16, 2016

This thesis is available to the public

“I hereby grant the University of the Philippines a non-exclusive, worldwide, royalty-

“Specifically I grant the following rights to the University:

a) To upload a copy of the work in the theses database of the

b) To publish the work in the college/school/institute/department

c) To give open access to above-mentioned work, thus allowing

Student Name over Signature and Date

Accepted as partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of

Table 3.1. Agricultural climatic adaptation practices in other countries .................................... 24

The study area

Scope and limitations

Problems on adaptation measures

The need for climate-related policy

Coping range and adaptive capacity

Wealthier and higher-income farmers have a greater propensity to adopt

Crops and practices for drought events

Crops and practices for extreme flooding events

Agricultural climatic adaptation practices outside the Philippines

Agricultural climatic adaptation practices in the Philippines

When it comes to adaptation practices done by farmers themselves, an

Farmers’ willingness to adopt new techniques

Issues on the acceptability of geospatial technologies to agricultural

Examples of computer-based applications for farm and land management

Other GIS-based applications for farmers include soil moisture monitoring in

Workflow Design for SICATA

Knowledge gained from farmers

➢ Focus group discussion with rice farmers, 28 June 2015

➢ Personal communication with a Pitpitan rice farmer, 04 September 2015

Fig.4.6. The farmer-interviewee using crayons to mark areas of interest on a printout of

Gathering and Processing of Secondary Data Sources

• Data and Insights from the Bulacan Provincial Capitol

➢ Bulacan Provincial Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Office (PDRRMO)

➢ Bulacan Provincial Planning and Development Office (PPDO)

➢ Bulacan Provincial Assessor’s Office

- Case 1 is a “between-year” integration of Pitpitan’s irrigated cropping

• Calculations based on time-series rainfall data

Fig.4.13. Flowchart of methodology for obtaining EI values as performed in this study.

• NDVI values from Landsat 8 Images

To obtain the NDVI values (note that atmospheric corrections such as

The resulting images were trimmed using Pitpitan’s boundary map.

Fig.4.18. Flowchart of methodology for obtaining SI values as performed in this study

• NDVI values from MODIS NDVI data

Fig.4.19. Flowchart of methodology for obtaining SI values as performed in this study

• Effects of Crop Type and Cropping Pattern to Vulnerability

C. Adaptive Capacity Index

• Farmers’ Capacity via Landowning and Irrigation Support

Fig.4.22. Flowchart of methodology for obtaining AI values as performed in this study

where xij = the normalized value of an index indicator j for parcel i.

Weight derivation is done with the help of a spreadsheet software. Note

E. rADVI and the Final Output

Fig.5.7.2. Case 1 ADVI for the MODIS datasets.

Fig.5.7.4. Case 2 ADVI for the MODIS datasets.

• Validation with Pitpitan’s Farmers

Remarks on ADVI’s performance

Goss, J. D. (1996, June). Introduction to Focus Groups. Area, 28(2), 113-114.