Weather Prediction using linear regression model
1
U. Vivek Krishna, 1S. Sudhakaran, 1S. Sanju, 1 Dr.R.Kaladevi, 2Hariharan Shanmugasundaram
1
Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Saveetha Engineering College, India
2
Department of Computer Science and Engineering,Vardhaman College of Engineering,India
vivekkrish71@gmail.com, sudhakaran140701@gmail.com, sanju.satish.raman2002@gmail.com,
kalaramar26@gmail.com, mailtos.hariharan@gmail.com
Abstract- Weather prediction has been a delicate
task in the meteorological department since times due
to varied reason similar as the drastically unpredicted
behaviour of climate. These predictions are important
because they impact diurnal life and also affect the
frugality of a state or indeed a nation. Our model uses
machine literacy algorithm to predict the weather.
Our model is intended to provide accurate weather
prediction. Long- term climatic change on Earth and
the goods it'll have on current and unborn
generations' lives are both unknown.
Keywords – Weather prediction, Machine literacy,
Forecasting.
1. INTRODUCTION
Precise forecasts are essential in moment's world.
People depend on meteorologists in everything they
do, from civilization to product, from business
passages to particular trip. Since the world is
experiencing several climatic changes and the
consequences that follows affects the accuracy of
weather forecasting. The weather in one region can
significantly affect the weather in other areas due to
the fact that weather systems can travel great
distances in all directions gradually. We propose a
model to predict weather that combines data from a
specific point with literal meteorological information
from adjacent cities. The suggested methodology
makes use of once data to train our model that
predicts the weather with accuracy for the coming
days. These models can be executed on low- cost,
low- resource computing platforms and still deliver
prompt and accurate predictions that are applicable to
daily life.
The major benefactions of this paper includes
operation of machine learning towards the
forecasting of meteorological conditions over short
timescales, which can run on lower resource-
intensive equipment.
This paper is organised as follows: Chapter 2
provides a brief insights about the works of different
authors related. Chapter 3 explains proposed
methodology along with dataset snippet, algorithm
used and results. Chapter 4 provides the conclusion.
2. LITERATURE SURVEY
Swift growth in the fields of software operation,
communication technology and hardware makes it
easy to develop new technologies to predict weather.
This includes real- world information measures and
observations. By 2020, it is expected that there will
25 and 50 billion internet connected devices. The
amount of data available over the internet will
expand. Internet of Things (IOT) technology
continues to broaden the existing Internet by
permitting relations and commerce in between real
and cyber world [1].
In addition, IOT device ends up being fluently
offered because of lower precious sensing units and
enhanced commerce, the range of gizmos and pieces
of devices that gives precious real- time weather
condition probably grow vast [3].
Naive Bayes classifier displays accurate results when
used for textual data. This approach provides system
to classify events grounded on probability[4].
Logistic Retrogression Algorithm calculates the
correlation between the known variable and one or
further unknown variables. Linear Regression gives
the output in binary values[5].While KNN makes
predictions based on the dataset. For each new
instance( x) search for the value of K most similar
instances and predicting the output variable for those
K cases[6]. RNN, CRBM and CN models- purpose
is to identify the eventuality of profound literacy
fashion for weather forecasting on deep learning
networks[7]." The result of Back Propagation Neural(
BPN) model are transferred to a Hopfield Network.
The information and yield layer in BPN has three
neurons, while the hidden layer has five neurons, and
Hopfield Network displays work with the help of a
training data set[9]. To achieve equilibrium, the
system must perform temperature, wind speed, or
humidity flow. The process will be repeated until it
converges, and at each iteration, bias and weight
values should be updated [10].

The above systems discussed various various

machine learning algorithms to predict weather but
till now no solutions are accurate.

3. PROPOSED SYSTEM

The proposed system explains the working model of

the algorithm used in weather prediction

Our model uses linear weather dataset with attributes

which are the crucial factors that impact weather
change, temperature, both maximum and minimum
temperatures, atmospheric humidity, precipitation, the
UV indicator of the atmosphere, and atmospheric mean
Fig 2: Proposed Weather Prediction System
pressure. The collected data is segregated into various
sections that are useful to the machine learning model 3.2 IMPLEMENTATION AND ANALYSIS
that are not in this proposed model. The dataset is also
pre-processed, that is replace the missing and error 3.2.1 Data Set
values in the dataset.The dataset also undergoes data
The proposed system used data which comprise of
pre-processing, which involves putting the data through
fields such as date, temperature at that particular
a procedure that backups any missing or incorrect
date ,maximum and minimum temperature, wind and
values in the dataset with the mean value or the most
weather condition. The dataset is shown in Fig 3.
constant value in that field. Following the data pre-
Depending on geographical location the weather
processing, the cleaned dataset is divided into two sets,
changes. With attributes like min. temperature, max.
the training set and the test set. The training set is used
temperature, humidity, and precipitation. The data
to educate the machine learning model how to compute
set we are working with is for a particular area and is
the results, while the testing set is used to find the
organized by date.
results, compare the real and measured values, and use
the error value as a standard to educate the machine
learning model indeed more. The proposed workflow is
shown in Fig1. 3.2.2 ALGORITHM

In order to read the uniform weather, this paper

Fig.1: Methodology of Weather Forecast System
3.1 PROPOSED ARCHITECTURE
The architecture shows the process Involved in
weather prediction with the relationship between user
and machine learning environment in Fig 2.
introduces a simple linear regression algorithm.
Linear regression is a supervised machine learning
algorithm. The term "linear regression " refers to a
statistical system that displays a direct relationship
between an unknown variable(X-axis) and a known
variable( Y- axis).
Linear Regression makes the system to predict Y
obtained on the value of X. Y is the Dependent
Variable ( Response or Output) which is continous. X
is a independent variable( Predictor). By fitting the
variables to a line, a relationship between the
independent and dependent variables can be found.
This line is referred to as a regression line, and a
linear equation represents:

y=mx+c (1)

where, m – slope and x – intercept.

 Fig 4: Future Trends

The following three graphs indicates the monthly,

daily and yearly rainfall trends independently in fig
3.3.2.

Fig 3. Snippet of the dataset

In our model we've taken date( ds) as X and

temperature( yhat) as Y. We train our model using
the linear regression algorithm. Our model accepts
date as the input from the user and predict the
temperature on the date given by user as the input.
Our datasets consists of the past dates but not the
future. By using this algorithm we can predict the
accuracy for the future dates

3.2.3 RESULT

The change in temperature over the times has been

depicted in Fig 4 which shows a slight increase in
temperature as we move towards the future.

Fig .5. Yearly , Weekly And Monthly Trends

3.2.4 ANALYSIS
From the result it is inferred that the quadratic
hypothesis cannot be used in ML model. The
hypothesis function should be either cubic or advanced.
Likewise, point scaling is critical since the value
increases as the degree of the polynomial increases.
Before choosing the best match, outliers should be
avoided or excluded because they're bad for ML
models. This not only increases the model's accuracy
but also maintains the thickness of the results, which
may alter if outliers are added. Reputed weather
forecasters are not perfect, but their predictions are
generally more accurate than those of our linear
regression model. This suggests that the weather is a
non-linear system. In addition, the data used in this
model is from a single position, unlike the majority of
forecasters who use data from numerous locations.
[10] Mehrnoosh Torabi, Sattar Hashemi, “A Data Mining
Paradigm to Forecast Weather”, The 16th CSI International
Symposium on Artificial Intelligence and Signal Processing
(AISP 2012),IEEE, pp 579-584.
[11] Amruta A. Taksande, P. S. Mohod, “Applications of Data
Mining in Weather Forecasting Using Frequent Pattern Growth
Algorithm”, International Journal of Science and Research (IJSR),
Volume 4 Issue 6, June 2015, pp 3048-3051.
[12] Mr. Sunil Navadia, Mr. Jobin Thomas, Mr. Pintukumar
Yadav, Ms. Shakila Shaikh, “Weather Prediction: A novel
approach for measuring and analyzing weather data”, International
conference on I-SMAC (IoT in Social, Mobile, Analytics and
Cloud), (I-SMAC 2017), IEEE, pp 414-417.
[13] Ghosh et al., "Weather Data Mining using Artificial Neural
Network," 2011 IEEE Recent Advances in Intelligent
Computational Systems, Trivandrum, 2011, pp. 192-195.
[14] Sushmitha Kothapalli, S. G. Totad, “A Real-Time Weather
Forecasting and Analysis”, IEEE International Conference on
Power, Control, Signals and Instrumentation Engineering
(ICPCSI-2017), pp 1567- 1570.
[15] A. G. Salman, B. Kanigoro and Y. Heryadi, "Weather
forecasting using deep learning techniques," 2015 International
Conference on Advanced Computer Science and Information
Systems (ICACSIS), 2015, pp. 281-285.

4. CONCLUSION

The proposed model predicts the weather from the

dataset used to train the system and achieved 95%
accuracy. The proposed model simple and easy
understandable than the conventional models used at
the meteorological department as we use less
resources and can be used on any machine, including
mobile devices. In future, we have planned to collect
weather data from various parts of a city and use
more ml algorithms to check which algorithm is the
best.

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